Sensormatic Solutions Reveals Global Predictions for Retail’s Busiest Days

Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), today released its predictions for the holiday season’s busiest shopping days in the United States and abroad. As in 2024, Sensormatic Solutions expects U.S. retailers to see their largest holiday crowds on Black Friday (Nov. 28), with the last two Saturdays before the Christmas holiday (Dec. 20 and 13) taking the next two spots. This annual forecast is developed by Sensormatic Solutions retail traffic consulting and analytics group based on historical holiday traffic data and current trends identified through the use of its ShopperTrak Analytics solution.

“The holiday rush is right around the corner, and competition for customer attention this year will be fierce,” said Tony D’Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions. “With economic uncertainty affecting both shoppers and businesses, stores that prioritize precise, personalized omnichannel promotions will have an edge come November, and data analytics will be the key enabler of these efforts. Our busiest days predictions can help retailers get a sense of what’s to come and—when paired with source-to-store visibility into their supply chains—guide the path to the convenient, seamless in-store experiences shoppers crave.”

Sensormatic Solutions predicts U.S. in-store traffic for the holiday season will be relatively flat to -3% compared to last year. To date, traffic this year has been down slightly (roughly 2.5% on average) compared to last year. In 2025, Christmas—which tends to be the predominant driver of holiday shopping in the country—will fall on a Thursday for the first time in over a decade. While early promotions in the weeks leading up to Black Friday and concerns around product availability encourage shoppers to get gift-buying done earlier, the late-week holiday may translate into a sustained high-traffic period in the week leading up to the holiday. As in years past, early afternoon will be the busiest time of day for in-store shopping throughout the season, with traffic likely to peak between 2 and 3 p.m.

“To no one’s surprise, our predictions show that Black Friday will still be the highlight of the U.S. holiday shopping season, but retailers are likely to see some interesting deviations from recent years thanks to the calendar and changing shopper preferences,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, whose team predicts the season’s top busiest days. “It’s a great example of how one-to-one historical traffic data can provide a framework for retailers’ holiday planning, but it can’t tell the entire story. It’s why we look to a broad range of indicators when determining our predictions for the busiest days of the season.”