U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Cross $250 Billion Online, Rising 5.3% YoY

Today, Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) released its online shopping forecast for the 2025 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud, relied upon by the majority of the top 100 internet retailers in the U.S.* to deliver, measure, and personalize shopping experiences online.

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2025 holiday season to surpass $250 billion online

Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $253.4 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025), which represents 5.3% growth year-over-year (YoY). A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion in a single day (up from 7 days last year). Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3% YoY).

Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season—and year—at $14.2 billion (up 6.3% YoY). However, Black Friday is expected to see higher growth this season, rising 8.3% YoY at $11.7 billion. On Thanksgiving, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online (up 4.9% YoY).

Mobile devices will cement its position as the dominant shopping platform this season, set to drive a record 56.1% share of online spend (vs. desktop shopping). This represents $142.7 billion, up 8.5% YoY. The shift towards mobile shopping has greatly accelerated in recent years: During the 2020 holiday season, mobile accounted for just 40% of online spend.

Buy Now Pay Later to drive an additional $2 billion

Consumers are looking for greater flexibility in managing their budgets this holiday season, with Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend (up 11% YoY). This is roughly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion in online spend. BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to hit a new milestone and cross $1 billion ($1.04 billion, up 5% YoY). Usage on Black Friday is set to be strong as well, with significant YoY growth ($761.8 million, up 11% YoY). The vast majority of BNPL spend is set to come through mobile devices this season at 79% share (vs. desktop), representing $15.6 billion (up 8.3% YoY).