GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX

• Chinese manufacturers sharply increased purchasing in September, propelling Asia's supply chains to their busiest level since June 2022.
• In contrast, tariff-related disruptions and a softer economic outlook curbed North American manufacturing activity.
• Europe's recovery remains sluggish, with supply chains operating at their weakest since March.

CLARK, N.J., Oct. 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — was little changed in September (-0.38 vs -0.39 in August), indicating that global supply chains are operating below full capacity still.

However, Chinese factories report a strong rise in purchasing, pushing global manufacturing procurement activity up at the fastest rate since mid-2022. This expansion pushed Asia's supply chains to near-full utilization.

In sharp contrast, North American supply chains lost momentum. Manufacturers cited tariff-related delays and growing concerns about the economic outlook, leading many to hold back purchasing and reduce inventory buffers.

Meanwhile, Europe's supply chains remained underused, as manufacturers in Germany, France, and Italy reduced both purchasing and stockpiles. The region's supply-chain activity fell to its weakest level since March, extending its protracted industrial downturn.

"This is the new normal for global companies — higher prices, tariff pressure, and slower growth are here to stay," said John Piatek, Vice President, Consulting, GEP. "For supply chain leaders who've been waiting to see how things settle: this is as stable as it's going to get — it's time to start executing their revised strategies."

Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.

SEPTEMBER REGIONAL KEY FINDINGS

• ASIA: Factory activity in China picked up in September, with a notable boost in demand driving the strongest rise in input purchasing across Asia for ten months.
• NORTH AMERICA: Manufacturers displayed a reticence to stockpile further in September, after August's bumper rise due to concerns about the economic outlook, although delivery delays and tariff-related disruptions were reportedly hindrances.
• EUROPE: Factory purchasing lost momentum in September, with Germany, France and Italy all reporting softer procurement trends, driving the region's respective Index to a six-month low.
• U.K.: Although the index rose to -0.57, from -0.90, it is still at a level reflecting significant manufacturing weakness across the country.

SEPTEMBER 2025 DETAILED FINDINGS