Mortgage Refinance Retention Hits Multi-Year High as Falling Rates Spur Activity Among Recently Originated Loans

ICE Mortgage Technology, neutral provider of a robust end-to-end mortgage platform and part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), today released its December 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. The latest analysis reveals servicer refinance retention rose to a 3.5-year high in Q3 2025 as falling interest rates expose homeowner eagerness to reduce monthly payments for lower returns than in past cycles.

“Modest rate relief this fall has driven mortgage application volumes to multi-year highs, showing the outsized impact that incremental affordability improvements have on borrower behavior and servicer retention opportunities,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “We’re now seeing the highest concentration of rate-and-term refinances in nearly five years, almost entirely driven by borrowers holding 2023-2025 vintage loans. Notably, the market has become more rate sensitive as hundreds of thousands of borrowers move in and out of refinance incentive with small daily rate shifts. This behavior shows how quickly demand can return when affordability improves, and it highlights just how closely households are watching rates as they try to manage monthly costs and access equity.”

Key findings from the December Mortgage Monitor include:

• Refinance retention hit a 3.5-year high, led by non-bank servicers

Refinance retention reached a 3.5-year high (28%) in Q3 2025, with servicers retaining more than half of borrowers refinancing out of 2024 vintage loans. Rate-and-term retention rose to 37%, one of the highest points in the past decade, while cash-out refinance retention rose to a more modest 23%, reflecting the challenge of identifying and retaining equity-seeking borrowers.

Non-banks retained refinancing borrowers at roughly three times the rate of banks (35% versus 13%). Retention was highest among FHA and VA mortgages (36%), trailed by GSE (25%) and portfolio-held loans (23%) and privately securitized loans (6%).

• Rate-and-term refinances dominated activity as more borrowers move back “in the money”

Rate-and-term refinances accounted for 62% of all refinance activity in October, the highest share in nearly five years. An estimated 95% of rate-and-term refinances in September and October involved 2023–2025-era loans, with the average refinancer carrying a loan balance of $505,000 and a credit score around 762. On average, they reduced their mortgage rate by 0.92 percentage points, translating to an average monthly savings of about $200.