Performing on and off the pitch, Chg.

BVB released a solid set of preliminary H1/Q2 figures with both top- and bottom-line slightly ahead of our estimates. Besides that, the team continues to perform well on the pitch. In detail:

Q2 25/26 sales came in at € 139m (eNuW: € 135m), implying 1.6% yoy growth. Sales growth was mainly driven by Match Operations (+13.7% to € 19.7m; eNuW: € 18.3m), Advertising (+5.5% to € 39.1m; eNuW: € 38.5m) and Conference, Catering & Others (+11.7% to € 12.0m; eNuW: € 11.1m). While for Match Operations and Conference, Catering & Others the higher count of home games (9 vs 8 in Q2 24/25) should have been the driver, Advertising benefited from the deals with Vodafone (new exclusive kit sponsor), Polestar, REWE and Konami. On the other hand, we saw a 10.1% decline in Merchandising sales to € 11.7m (eNuW: € 12.4m) caused a tough comparison base (“Weiße Wiese” special edition kit effect in Q2 24/25). TV Marketing sales also slightly declined to € 56.9m (-3.6% yoy; eNuW: € 57.5m) following reduced overall Bundesliga TV money as well as a likely reduction of the UCL value pillar.

Q2 25/26 EBITDA declined 12.1% to € 29.0m (eNuW: € 27.4m), implying a margin of 20.8%. The yoy decline is largely explained by increased personnel expenses, which are driven by (i) likely higher match related bonuses due to improved on-pitch performance and (ii) the departure of mainly low-earners while some high-caliber players like Silva, Couto, Bellingham and Chukwuemeka were signed. Importantly, looking at the on-pitch performance, these investments seem to bear fruit already.

FY25/26 targets fully in reach. Management continues to target FY sales of around € 475m (eNuW: € 507m, eCons: € 511m), EBITDA of € 105-115m (eNuW: € 132m, eCons: € 118m) and FCF of around € 7m (eNuW: € 5.3m; no eCons). In our view, the sales and EBITDA outlook both look conservative given the strong H1 results (€ 246m sales & € 81.7m EBITDA) and the good performance on the pitch, which should continue to fuel Merchandising and TV Marketing sales in particular. For FCF, we position ourselves slightly below the outlook and thus take a conservative stance.

Kovac team continues strong on-pitch performance. With 16 points out of 6 Bundesliga matches in 2026, BVB narrowed the gap to table leaders Bayern to a mere 6 points, putting the team in striking distance ahead of the direct match-up end of February. Although we still regard Bayern too consistent in the long run, BVB still has a shot at the championship, which we did not expect at this time of the season. In the UCL, BVB will face Atalanta in the play-off stage, a hurdle BVB should be able to take before playing either Arsenal or Bayern in the round of 16 - two teams we regard as too strong to beat across a 2-leg stretch. Yet, should they be able to reach the quarterfinals, this would imply additional TV Marketing sales of € 12.5m that would come at a nearly 100% margin as well as an additional home game.

That said, BVB continues to trade at a mere 0.8x FY25/26e EV/sales which compares to a peer group average of 3.1x. Reiterate BUY, unchanged PT of € 5.20 based on DCF.