Original-Research
ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
Für Sie zusammengefasst
- Strong Q2 billings acceleration driven by jackpots
- DreamCarRaffle nearing profit with 61% sell-through
- Undemanding valuation supports BUY thesis and growth
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE |
| Company Name: | ZEAL Network SE |
| ISIN: | DE000ZEAL241 |
| Reason for the research: | Update |
| Recommendation: | BUY |
| Target price: | EUR 80 |
| Target price on sight of: | 12 months |
| Last rating change: | |
| Analyst: | Simon Keller |
Jackpots lining up while valuation remains attractive
A more supportive jackpot environment should drive a visible acceleration in ZEAL's Q2 billings. Following a soft Q1 jackpot backdrop, Q2 has already seen eight peak jackpots across Eurojackpot and Lotto 6aus49. While Lotto typically generates less “jackpot fever” than Eurojackpot, the impact on market activity is still material: last Wednesday’s Lotto draw generated c. € 35m in accumulated stakes, c. 43% above the average Wednesday Lotto draw.
Based on jackpot and stakes data to date, the German lottery market (Lotto and Eurojackpot combined) is tracking towards c. 8% yoy stakes growth in Q2, even without assuming any further peak jackpots before quarter-end. ZEAL should benefit disproportionately from this, driven by ongoing online penetration, market share gains and its stronger customer activation in high-jackpot phases. On this basis, we currently estimate Q2 billings of c. € 316m, implying 20.3% yoy growth and a clear sequential re-acceleration after the muted Q1 (+5.8% yoy, still reflecting a 10pp market outperformance; incl. proprietary formats).
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