GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX

• Global supply chains remain under significant strain as manufacturers front-load purchasing to guard against anticipated higher prices in the second-half of 2026
• Safety stockpiling, shortages and transportation costs have all been elevated for three straight months, a rare signal outside the 2021-23 supply chain crisis
• North America supply chain pressures rise to their highest level since August 2022; Asia remains under the greatest strain globally

CLARK, N.J., June 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses, signaled continued pressure on global supply chains in May as manufacturers increased purchases and built safety stocks to protect against rising inflation.

Reports of safety stockpiling rose to their highest level since January 2023, as companies bulk ordered goods and raw materials ahead of expected price increases and potential supply disruption. This front-loaded purchasing pushed global demand for inputs to its strongest since March 2022.

Shortages also worsened in May, reaching their highest level in three-and-a-half years. Combined with elevated transportation costs, the data shows that supply chain pressures are no longer limited to shipping and energy markets.

May's data also points to a rare pattern: for three consecutive months, stockpiling, shortages and transportation costs have all been elevated. Outside the 2021-23 supply chain crisis, this has typically been followed by a sharp fall in the index as supply chains self-correct (see chart below), often through weaker input demand or deteriorating economic conditions.

"The path for inflation is already being set, and companies are trying to limit the damage," said John Piatek, vice president, consulting, GEP. "The surge in purchasing we saw in April and May is likely temporary. Once companies have built inventory, they and their customers will pull back, which means supply chain pressures may ease. But, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened fully, economic conditions will likely weaken in the second half of the year as companies will pull back on their input purchasing to draw down the inventories they've built up."

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