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Market commentary Bellevue Asset Management "We are confident about stocks, but the possibility of a growth shock cannot be ruled out"

Nachrichtenquelle: GlobeNewswire
25.05.2016, 10:33  |  735   |   |   

Bellevue Asset Management / Market commentary Bellevue Asset Management: "We are confident about stocks, but the possibility of a growth shock cannot be ruled out" . Processed and transmitted by NASDAQ OMX Corporate Solutions. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

The experts at Bellevue are forecasting a continuation of monetary policies aimed at stimulating economic activity, therefore providing an ideal environment for stocks and non-sovereign bonds. That said, there is still some risk of a substantial disruption, including a possible growth shock should the Chinese Renminbi be devalued. 

Conditions on the world's equity markets have settled down after the turbulent start to the new year and Lucio Soso, Lead Portfolio Manager of BB Global Macro Fund (ISIN B-EUR LU0494761835) of Bellevue Asset Management, does not expect to pick up volatility again. The BB Global Macro team has drawn up a central case scenario with a 50% probability of occurrence projecting slow growth in the global economy and a continuation of the extremely accommodative monetary policies by central banks. "When we have these kinds of conditions, equities and corporate bonds perform the best," Soso says.

Bellevue's somewhat negative scenario is less likely (probability of occurrence: 25%). In this scenario, the credit bubble in some emerging markets would continue to affect global financial markets. Although the Bellevue experts predict that these credit crises will remain local in scope, the situation nevertheless represents a threat for high-risk investments. If the credit crises lead to declines in bond prices, the fund managers of BB Global Macro plan to buy bonds from emerging markets (such as Brazil) to take advantage of this scenario.

The negative scenario is even grimmer, but with the same probable likelihood (25%). If it becomes reality, there would be a growth shock that could send equity markets into a bear market. One possible cause of an economic slowdown could be a devaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Under such a scenario, Chinese demand for foreign goods would suddenly drop while global companies would be confronted with heightened competition from Chinese products. China's total level of debt has increased sharply since 2007. A credit crisis would increase the pressure for a devaluation even further. "We continue to be concerned about a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy and a subsequent devaluation of the Renminbi," Soso says. The Chinese currency was sold short in March as a hedge to the equity strategy.

Apart from that, the Global Macro absolute return fund is primarily invested in the Eurozone and Japanese stocks. Soso: "Valuations are attractive by historical standards, and the quantitative easing programs are still in place in the Eurozone and Japan." There was virtually no change in the positions held by Global Macro in April. The only portfolio activity was some profit taking in Italian government bonds.

For further information:

Bellevue Asset Management AG, Seestrasse 16 / P.O. Box, CH-8700 Kusnacht/Zurich
Tanja Chicherio, Tel. +41 (44) 267 67 07, tch@bellevue.ch


Bellevue Asset Management

Bellevue Asset Management is an independent and highly specialized asset management boutique focused on managing equity funds for selective sector and regional strategies, in particular for African equities, Swiss/European entrepreneurial equities and healthcare equities, and multi asset strategies.

Disclaimer: This document is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information and data presented in this document are not to be considered as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to any securities or financial instruments. The information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of release and are subject to change without notice. No liability is assumed for its correctness and accuracy. This information pays no regard to the specific or future investment objectives, financial or tax situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. This document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in the light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional. The details and opinions contained in this document are provided without any guarantee or warranty and are for the recipient's personal use and information purpose only. Every investment involves risk, especially with regard to fluctuations in value and return. If the currency of a financial product is different from your reference currency, the return can increase as a result of currency fluctuations. Past performance is no indicator for the current or future performance. The performance data are calculated without taking account of commissions and costs that result from subscriptions and redemptions. Commissions and costs have a negative impact on performance. This document does not reflect any risks related to investments into the mentioned securities and financial instruments. Financial transactions should only be undertaken after having carefully studied the current valid prospectus and are only valid on the basis of the latest version of the prospectus and available annual and semi-annual reports. The Bellevue Funds (Lux) SICAV is admitted for public offering and distribution in Switzerland. Representative agent in Switzerland: Acolin Fund Services AG, Stadelhoferstrasse 18, CH-8001 Zürich and paying agent in Switzerland: Bank am Bellevue AG, Seestrasse 16, P.O. Box, CH-8700 Kusnacht. The Bellevue Funds (Lux) SICAV is admitted for public distribution in Austria. Paying and information agent: Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG, Graben 21, A-1010 Vienna. The Bellevue Funds (Lux) SICAV is admitted for public distribution in Germany. Paying and information agent: Bank Julius Bär Europe AG, An der Welle 1, P.O. Box, D-60062 Frankfurt a. M. The Bellevue Funds (Lux) SICAV is registered with the CNMV under the number 938. Prospectus, simplified prospectus, the articles of association as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of the BB Funds under Luxembourg law are available free of charge from the above mentioned representative, paying and information agents as well as from Bellevue Asset Management AG, Seestrasse 16, CH-8700 Kusnacht.

This announcement is distributed by NASDAQ OMX Corporate Solutions on behalf of NASDAQ OMX Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Bellevue Asset Management via Globenewswire


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Bellevue Asset Management
Seestrasse 16 / P.O. Box Kusnacht/Zurich Switzerland

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