Marktkommentar UBS Economist Insights: Eventually
Geopolitical events such as the UK referendum on EU membership are troublesome for investors. What is the best way to react? Be brave by taking a position beforehand? Be nimble by reacting to market movements after? Or stay calm and just ride the volatility? So much depends on whether investors feel they have any insights, but even more depends on the incentives facing the investment decision-maker.
Geopolitical events have always been a challenge for investors, but on occasion many events can overlap or occur close together. This Thursday there is the UK referendum on EU membership, on Sunday there are the Spanish elections, and, not to forget, the upcoming spectre of the US election.
How can an investor deal with these sorts of geopolitical events? They do not fit nicely on any kind of normal statistical distribution of the kind most people learn about and use. The very bifurcated impacts of some events make the usual approaches to valuing asset prices more troublesome. Consider the potential impact of the UK referendum on the British pound. The market expects the currency to rally on a vote to remain in the EU and to sell off sharply on a vote to leave. Taking the probability-weighted average of the two would give you a number somewhere around the middle - but this middle value is exactly the value that we know is most unlikely.
Zum vollständigen UBS Economist Insights: Eventually
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