Pressemeldung

Allianz GI: Großbritannien nach der Wahl – Ungewissheit über Ungewissheit

Kein Wahlausgang hätte die Ungewissheit in Bezug auf Großbritannien vor dem Hintergrund des Brexit und der sich verschlechternden Konjunktur beenden können. Mit dem Ausgang dieser Wahlen häuft sich allerdings Ungewissheit über Ungewissheit. Die gute Nachricht ist jedoch, dass das Wahlergebnis den Weg zu einer Regierung ebnet, die wichtige Entscheidungen vorher beraten muss und dadurch einen realitätsnäheren Ansatz für die bevorstehenden Brexit-Verhandlungen wählen dürfte.

• Das britische Wahlergebnis dürfte für einen pragmatischeren Ansatz bei den Verhandlungen mit der EU sorgen und erhöht die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines „Soft Brexit“, bei dem Großbritannien unter Umständen den Zugang zum europäischen Binnenmarkt erhalten könnte.
• Unserer Überzeugung nach dürfte die Bank von England für die nächsten 2-3 Jahre auf Zinserhöhungen verzichten. Der Ausgang der Wahl unterstreicht das noch einmal.
• Spekulationen über erneute Neuwahlen setzen das Britische Pfund unter Druck, der wesentliche Treiber für die Devisenentwicklung dürften aber die Wirtschaftsdaten sein.
• Eine schwache Regierung oder Koalition bedeutet vermutlich, dass strittige Wahlkampfversprechen – vielleicht mit Ausnahme der Vorhaben im Bereich der Energieversorgung – nicht umgesetzt werden dürften. 

---

Lesen den vollständigen Kommentar (in englischer Sprache):

Initially billed as a tactical shoo-in for UK Prime Minister Theresa May, the decision to call a snap election turned into a high-stakes gamble. One that failed to come off. Mrs May called the election with the express aim of securing a stronger mandate – and bigger parliamentary majority – going into the Brexit talks that are due to begin on 19 June.

Instead, her Conservative party was left with insufficient seats to secure an overall majority. The result: a hung parliament.

In other words, a very different picture to the one anyone envisaged when Mrs May emerged from No.10 Downing Street on 18 April to announce the election.

What went wrong for Mrs May? She led a disastrous election campaign – compounded by Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s strong performance on the campaign trail, galvanising his core vote and attracting new, younger voters. He increased his party’s share of the vote more than any other Labour leader in any election since 1945.

The Conservatives are likely to lead a relatively weak government, most likely in coalition with the 10 Democratic Ulster Party representatives from Northern Ireland. At this early stage, it is hard to see Labour forming a coalition. Even with the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP), they will be short of a majority.

Mrs May’s position is weakened and she may be replaced as leader of the Conservatives. Her credibility to negotiate Brexit is seriously undermined.

Investment implications

‘Hard’ vs. ‘soft’ Brexit, and the future of the wider United Kingdom

The exact Brexit implications are not immediately clear, although the result may augur a more realistic and pragmatic approach. Any deal will now have to be ratified by parliament, rather than simply waived through on a Conservative majority. But the process will be even more complex. The path of the Brexit negotiations will depend on the actions and views of the other 27 EU member states, and the two-year deadline for completing Brexit looks increasingly challenging.

The chances of a soft Brexit may have risen, which should be seen as positive. The dangers of a hard Brexit, with the UK failing to secure a trade deal – and having to rely on World Trade Organization rules instead – have diminished. Many hard Brexiteers preferred this route on day one, but it is fraught with uncertainties for almost all industries.

Elsewhere, the second Scottish independence referendum now seems very unlikely in the short term. The “Conservative and Unionist Party” fought a successful campaign focused solely on preventing a second independence referendum – the so-called IndyRef2. Labour also won back some seats from the SNP.

Sterling should remain fragile, although economic data will be the key driver

The British pound sterling was down more than 2 per cent in the immediate aftermath of the vote. Markets had been trading on the dynamic that a larger majority would mean a better negotiating stance for Mrs May and a softer Brexit. This was perhaps a false assumption, but in any event we now are in a new and unexpected environment.

Any possibility of another election – and uncertainty over who will lead the next government – puts downward pressure on sterling in the short term. Gilt yields are likely to rise somewhat.

Our high-conviction view is that the Bank of England will put rate rises on hold for the next 2-3 years, or longer – especially with gross domestic product growth falling back and household spending slowing as higher inflation bites. The election reinforces such a view, and this is ultimately negative for sterling. But we would need to see economic data continue to soften for sterling to weaken materially again.

Signs of a softer Brexit – and potentially a faster Brexit if the UK were to remain in the single market – would be good news for sterling.

Conservatives will set the agenda, and sector implications will be limited

Domestic stocks will be weak, but perhaps not too soft in the event that the Conservatives continue to lead the government. International earners (i.e., large parts of the FTSE 100) are likely to be stronger.

A weak government or coalition probably means that fewer contentious manifesto pledges can be enacted. Policies would face more parliamentary scrutiny, and this may mean proposals track more closely to the centre ground. And the uptick in voters aged 18 to 24 suggests that the younger generation are intent on making their voices heard in the democratic process.

There will be a risk of economic weakness from higher uncertainty. Higher bond yields may put a constraint on policy and spending, and investment into the UK could suffer from uncertainty –although, again, it will depend on how Brexit negotiations go.

Policy on reforms of corporate governance may take a back seat for a while, especially if May is no longer leader.

Looking at specific sector themes, price caps or other intervention on utilities may also be pushed back. But given that these fairness topics resonate with both main parties, we would expect some policy intervention on utilities.