Seplat Petroleum- Absurd billiger Ölproduzent aus Nigeria (Seite 2)

[pickuru]

NIGERIA – BETTING ON AFRICA’S MILEI

https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/nigeria…

[tofu1]

wer sich heute über den starken Kursrueckgang wundert. Heute war Ex Dividende in London.
Da das Ex Dividendendatum verschieden kommuniziert wird hier die genauen Timings:
Summary of Key Dates

30 October 2023

Dividend announcement date

9 November 2023

London Stock Exchange: Ex-Dividend Date

Date for determining foreign exchange rate

10 November 2023

Nigerian Exchange Limited: Qualification date

London Stock Exchange: Associated Record Date

Foreign exchange rates will be communicated to shareholders

13 November 2023

Nigerian Exchange Limited: Register Close Date

24 November 2023

Dividend Payment Date

[SwedishChef]

Ein aktueller Artikel aus der NZZ, der sich mit dem Öldiebstahl in Nigeria und den Gegenmaßnahmen der Regierung beschäftigt.
https://www.nzz.ch/gesellschaft/oel-in-nigeria-kann-ein-warl…

[tofu1]

Bei den Quartalsergebnissen hat Seplat auch wieder geliefert:

Financial highlights
• Revenue up 31.0% to $810.4 million (including an overlift of $127.8 million) from $618.6m in 9M 2022 (including an
underlift of $60.3 million). Adjusted revenue was flat YoY as improved production mitigated lower oil price realisations.
• Average realised oil price $82.76/bbl (9M 2022: $108.25/bbl); average gas price improved to $2.87/Mscf (9M 2022:
$2.80/Mscf).
• Unit production opex of $9.7/boe, (9M 2022: $9.3/boe).
• Cash generation of $365.1 million, flat YoY, funding capex of $125.4 million.
• Balance sheet strengthened in the quarter, $391.0 million cash at bank (9M 2022: $305 million), $128 million MPNU
cash deposit not included.
• Net debt at end September fell to $347.6 million (9M 2022: $452.2 million), a further $11 million of RBL borrowings
were repaid in 3Q 2023 ($22 million YTD). Net Debt to TTM EBITDA improved to 0.9x.
• Q3 2023 dividend declared of US3 cents per share, in line with higher core annual dividend of US 12 cents.

[tofu1]

hier die x te Beteuerung, dass es mit dem Exxon Deal doch noch was wird:

CAPE TOWN, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The head of Nigeria's oil regulator said he is "very optimistic" that Exxon Mobil's (XOM.N) asset sale to Seplat Energy (SEPLAT.LG) can move forward, he told Reuters on Wednesday.

The regulator last year refused to approve the $1.28 billion sale, a deal some in the industry say is key to getting much-needed investment into Nigeria's oil and gas sector.

"We are very optimistic that parties to the transaction will go back, look at the position of the regulator and come back by abiding by the provisions of Nigerian laws and the right thing will be done," Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), told Reuters on the sidelines of Africa Oil Week in Cape Town.
Komolafe said once Exxon had made proper agreements with its joint-venture partners in the assets, "the regulator will do what it needs to".

Seplat CEO Roger Brown told Reuters he was "hopeful" the deal could be concluded this year.

"We have very good relationships with the regulator and that is why it takes time and the NNPC is a partner to us and we want to respect the partnership …Now we are starting to get to that crux point to try and resolve the issue," he said.

[Istanbul]

H1-Zahlen: https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/4848H_1-2023…

Wie immer eine Menge Effekte jetzt inkl. Naira-Abwertung (Impairments auf Forderungen). Etwas höhere capex und generell Kosten. Schnee von gestern. Wichtig für mich ist topline 547,0 Mio$ als Beweis, dass operativ alles läuft. Ansonsten Net Debt 380,3 und jedenfalls bis zur Übernahme verfügbarer Cash 380,7 als Beweis, die Mobil-Übernahme stemmen zu können.

Dividende weiter 3C ist mir egal. Okay, was man hat, hat man.

[Istanbul]

Sieht nicht nur für den Verkauf ganz gut aus, könnte auch sein, dass die NNPC ihre Anteile bis auf eine Minderheitsbeteiligung verkaufen muss. Interessant. Dazu noch das Geld, das plötzlich ins Land und an die Börse Nigeria strömt.

William Clowes
June 13, 2023
(Bloomberg) Nigeria’s state energy company should sell off assets including stakes in oil blocks to raise billions of dollars, a report prepared for the country’s new president proposes.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Co. should become a minority shareholder in projects it currently controls, potentially generating more than $17 billion by the end of the decade, according to the study by a committee that advised President Bola Tinubu ahead of his inauguration last month.

If adopted, the recommendations would alter the NNPC’s strategy of holding majority stakes in oil and gas joint ventures with majors such as Shell Plc, and local producers that account for about a third of Nigeria’s crude output.

It could also see the NNPC shift away from its expansionary path pursued after it was transformed into a fully commercial venture under Tinubu’s predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari. During that period, it bought operating stakes in two blocks from Chevron Corp. and attempted to take over four permits from Exxon Mobil Corp. by blocking a sale to Seplat Energy Plc.

The state-owned firm also acquired a 20% interest in a 650,000 barrel-a-day oil refinery built by Africa’s richest person, Aliko Dangote, and awarded more than $2 billion in contracts to revamp its own refining facilities that were built decades ago but are inoperative and in various stages of rehabilitation.

Read More: Nigeria’s Moribund Refineries Cost $10 Billion Over a Decade

NNPC should “sell down interests in JVs to a minority position” and reduce its holdings in refineries, the report said. It recommended the new government “head-hunt competent, tested, reform-focused leaders” to run the company.

International oil giants have been offloading assets to local players for more than a decade. That trend is accelerating, as the likes of Shell and Exxon Mobil look to sell the rest of their onshore and shallow water portfolios to focus on deepwater projects.

Tripling Oil Production

A sale of NNPC’s assets would help Tinubu meet an ambitious campaign pledge to nearly triple oil production to 4 million barrels-a-day by 2030, according to the committee’s report, which was confirmed by the presidency. Nigeria currently produces about 1.43 million barrels-a-day, well below its full capacity due to pipeline theft, vandalism and declining investments.

Committee members included Austin Avuru, the founder and former chief executive officer of Seplat, and Abdulrazaq Isa, chairman of local energy firm Waltersmith Petroman Oil Ltd. Avuru declined to comment and Isa didn’t respond to an email from Bloomberg.

In the short term, it also suggested the NNPC, which currently imports all of Nigeria’s gasoline requirements, should end contracts with international and local traders through which it swaps crude for fuel. Instead, private companies could enter the market, leaving the state firm to sell the daily allocation of 445,000 barrels of oil for much-needed foreign exchange, it said. Tinubu has already removed gasoline subsidies that cost the state more than $10 billion last year.

The new administration also wants to commercialize much more of Nigeria’s abundant reserves of natural gas for both the domestic and export markets. To do this, the report proposed deregulating the local pricing system and applying a tax holiday to undeveloped deposits.

Spokesmen for Tinubu and the NNPC didn’t respond to requests for comment.

29.06.23 https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/06/29/seplat-bank…

Seplat Banks on Tinubu’s Administration to Complete $1.3bn Exxon Oil Deal
•Planned oil assets purchase game changer, says CEO

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja with agency report

Seplat Energy Plc remains committed to purchasing Nigerian oil and gas assets from Exxon Mobil Corporation by completing a deal that’s been held up by the West African state for more than a year, Bloomberg reported yesterday.

The Lagos and London-listed company is hoping that President Bola Tinubu, the new leader of Africa’s largest crude producer, would adopt a different approach from his predecessor, who reversed an initial decision to approve the transaction.

“We’re still interested in the assets,” Seplat Chief Executive Officer, Roger Brown, said in an interview at the firm’s UK office.

“We still like the company we’re buying. We think it’s a game changing operation,” he added.

Under the deal unveiled in February 2022, Seplat agreed to pay $1.3 billion for an Exxon unit that holds a 40 per cent operating stake in four shallow-water licenses in a purchase that would almost quadruple the independent company’s oil output to more than 130,000 barrels per day.

If the transaction goes ahead, it would be one of the biggest divestments in Nigerian history since energy majors like Shell Plc started offloading unwanted assets in the late 2000s, the Bloomberg report added.

Former President Muhammadu Buhari, who doubled as Nigeria’s oil minister, had endorsed the sale in August, before swiftly rowing back after the country’s energy regulator rejected his approval.

Days before Buhari stepped down last month, Seplat announced it had extended the agreement with Exxon to allow more time to finalise the transaction.

State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) which owns 60 per cent of the permits — had opposed the sale and had sued Exxon in the capital, Abuja, claiming it has the right to acquire the blocks itself from the US major.

The Seplat boss disagrees with the NNPC because his firm was purchasing a subsidiary rather than licences.

“What we are buying are shares sold by US companies, so that is a completely different animal because we’re buying a company,” he said. “Exxon’s read of the situation is the same,” he pointed out.

A spokeswoman for Exxon declined to comment on the transaction, citing a court injunction and arbitration proceedings. Spokesmen for Tinubu didn’t respond to questions from Bloomberg News.

Early signals from the Tinubu administration appear promising for supporters of the deal.

The new head of state met Exxon executives during his second week in office, saying on Twitter that the invitation demonstrated his government’s “efforts to secure the collaboration of critical players in the oil sector.”

Advisers also prepared a report for the president in the run-up to his inauguration recommending him to sell down NNPC’s positions in joint ventures to minority stakes and “close out” outstanding divestments in order to boost production.

The “hidden value” for Seplat in the Exxon deal is the natural gas in the blocks, according to Brown, whose firm is already one of the largest domestic suppliers of the fuel to Nigerian power plants.

Brown said it’s “most likely” that most of the gas in the licenses would be destined for export, either as a third-party source for Nigeria LNG Ltd. – an expanding venture whose shareholders include Shell and NNPC that is short of feedstock – or via a separate floating production facility.

After the meeting with Exxon officials at the State House in Abuja, recently, Tinubu had pledged to ensure competition in the oil and gas industry in the country.

Some of the key officials of ExxonMobil that visited Tinubu, who himself was a former Treasurer of the oil company were the President of ExxonMobil on Upstream Oil and Gas, Mr. Liam Mallon and the then Executive Director Mobil Nigeria, Adesuwa Dozie, who is now vice chairperson.

It also followed a similar meeting with the then President Muhammadu Buhari by both officials on the margins of the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, in New York, USA in September last year.

While making the meeting public on his Twitter handle, Tinubu had said it was part of his efforts to ensure collaboration among all stakeholders in the oil and gas sector.

“It was a pleasure to play host to ExxonMobil Executives, Mr. Liam Mallon and Mrs. Adesua Dozie, at the State House earlier today.

“The meeting marks the continuation of this administration’s efforts to secure the collaboration of critical players in the oil sector towards ensuring stability, transparency and fair competition in the sector,” he stated.

[Istanbul]

Das ist ein Grund. Mit der neuen Regierung gibt es so viel an Veränderungen, dass Chancen und Risiken völlig anders aussehen. Allein der Naira-Float und das nun kommende Auslandskapital wird extrem viel verändern. Da bisher alles Mist war (Exxon wollte nicht ohne Grund unbedingt raus), ist es recht wahrscheinlich, dass es deutlich besser wird.

WENN der Deal nun durch geht (und so wie ich das sehe, kann Exxon keinen Rückzieher mehr machen und es hängt an nigerianischen Gerichten und Behörden) UND Seplat ihn mit Fremd- und vorhandenen Eigenmitteln stemmt, dann wird es eine komplette Neubewertung geben. Größenordnung: das bisherige und Mobil ist doppelt soviel wert. Davon ziehste dann die paar Fremdmittel ab zur Übernahme des vorher vereinbarten Kaufpreises, die bei aktuellen Ölpreisen in zwei bis drei Jahren abbezahlt sind.

Chance für das WENN sehe ich adhoc bei irgendwas um die 30%. Damit wäre Seplat immer noch deutlich unterbewertet im Vergleich zu vorher 110 GBp mit Ölklau und (Russia is Nigeria with snow). Aber klar ist, dass es da Leute gibt mit mehr Wissen als mich.

[tofu1]

@istanbul der Kursanstieg der letzten Tage sollte aber durch neuerliche Spekulationen getriggert sein, dass die Exxon Übernahme doch noch über die Bühne geht. Angeblich sieht der neue Präsident den Verkauf deutlich positiver. Ausserdem spielt hier sicherlich auch eine Rolle , dass der Ölpreis einen Boden ausgebildet hat. Seplat verdient nur am Ölverkauf. Der Gasverkauf erfolgt ja zu niedrigen Fixpreisen.

[Istanbul]

Auswirkungen des Float für Seplat und generell der nach dem Rausschmiss von https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin_Emefiele neuen Führung der Zentralbank CBN für die Wirtschaft scheinen positiv sein. Ist auch nicht schwer, kann sich aber von heute auf morgen wieder ändern.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/naira-windfall-for-oil-f…

Seplat kosten ihre Naira-Schulden nun nur noch grob die Hälfte an USD.

Der neue Präsident arbeitete früher für Mobil. Das könnte helfen. Er hat Ahnung von Wirtschaft und folgerichtig seit Inauguration am 29.05. schon heftigst ausgemistet. Er wird nicht nur Freunde haben.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bola_Tinubu
https://businessday.ng/news/article/nigerias-new-president-a…

Mit Seplat lernt man ziemlich viel über Nigeria und weiß schnell sicher mehr als unser Außenministerium.