a bissi mehr overload.
mein liebling talking - fear&greed trader:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4274783-s-and-p-500-weekly-…
S&P 500 Weekly Update: Same Bull Market Story - New Market Highs And No One Believes
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Summary
It appears many investors have bought into the wrong-footed bearish analysis.
The consensus has the market's risk/reward slanted to the downside and that view has been wrong for months now.
Investors incorrectly focus on trade, the Fed, and interest rates. Overanalyzing and preparing for these events has been a mistake.
New highs this week for the S&P, Dow 30, and the Nasdaq Composite as the bull market surprises many.
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This month marks the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record holder, which was March 1991-March 2001. As many economists have noted, this expansion has been a laggard. Industrial production is up 25.8% since June 2009 through May of this year. That represents only a third of the record post-WWII increase of 75% from February 1961 to December 1969 and well short of the 32% average increase during the previous 11 expansions.
Yardeni Research notes:
"From the second quarter of 2009 through the first quarter of this year the 25% increase in real GDP is the second weakest 10 year performance compared to the previous six 10 year period that started with expansions."
While the economists have fallen over themselves to predict a recession in every year since 2014, my view on this current expansion remains the same. There has been no boom, and because of that fact the economy has not set itself up for a bust. A point I have made many times in numerous articles. An interesting fact belies the consensus view of this expansion. We have seen a 65% increase in real capital spending, beating two of the previous 10-year periods and this simply destroys the narrative promoted by the naysayers that capital spending in this cycle has been the worst ever.
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Sentiment
The S&P 500 and Dow have made new all-time highs, but sentiment remains subdued. AAII's weekly sentiment survey showed 33.6% of those surveyed are bullish, up 0.5% from last week. This is in the lower range of sentiment readings given the new highs in the market. Bespoke Investment Group notes:
"At this level, bullish sentiment is in the 15th percentile of times that the S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high in the past week. Additionally, the current reading is still below the historical average for bullish sentiment as it has been for nine straight weeks now. That is the longest such streak since the 12-week streak ending May 17th of last year."
Week after week bullish sentiment remains below norms. Fund flows show money leaving stocks at record rates.
Lipper Research:
"The past 4 weeks have now seen -$23.4b outflow from equity mutual funds and ETFs the past 4 weeks. That includes a massive -$19.8b last week. So far this year, a net outflow of -$97.8b."
The graphic above shows how equity fund flows are now at levels that are points where rallies take place. The Twitter post below adds more confirmation that while the stock market is making a new high, market participants are leaving the market.
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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) confirms plans to train 100,000 workers in new skills. The company pledged to upskill 100,000 of its employees across the United States, dedicating over $700M to provide people across its corporate offices, tech hubs, fulfillment centers, retail stores, and transportation network with access to training programs that will help them move into more highly skilled roles within or outside of Amazon.
Those that continue to bring up the dastardly deeds that these companies are accused of might want to focus on the ENTIRE picture. The self-proclaimed experts might also want to move on with the "targeting" of the wealthy. After all it is these wealthy entrepreneurs that put these positive plans in motion.
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Individual Stocks and Sectors
Credit Suisse:
"Growth stocks prosper with a dovish Fed. Growth has outperformed 80% of the time in the six and 12 months following an initial Fed rate cut, shares. It notes the P/E ratio of growth vs. value stocks is 0.8 standard deviations above its norm, with the absolute P/E of U.S. growth stocks at 27 vs. 45-60 seen at the end of most bull markets. Meanwhile, the value side of the equity market has rarely been so disrupted. Price momentum is extreme, but historically, growth as a style has continued to outperform from current levels 85% of the time."
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