Original-Research

Media and Games Invest SE (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Media and Games Invest SE

Unternehmen: Media and Games Invest SE
ISIN: SE0018538068

Anlass der Studie: Research study (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 5.30 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

Financial year 2022 closed with a significant improvement in revenue and operating profit; A continuation of the profitable growth course is expected for 2023; The expansion of the ad tech platform business should lead to significant revenue and earnings growth in the future; Target price: EUR 5.30 (previously: EUR 5.40); Rating: BUY
 
Based on the published business figures, Media and Games Invest SE (MGI) continued its dynamic growth course in the past financial year 2022 with a significant increase in turnover of 28.7% to EUR 324.44 million (PY: EUR 252.17 million) despite difficult general conditions and market situation. Their digital programmatic advertising software platform business again proved to be their main growth driver. In this high-growth area, the increase in their software customer base to 551 customers (end of 2021: 418) significantly increased their business volume. The strong business growth achieved is also reflected in MGI's leading market position. According to a market study (Pixalate's Mobile SSP Report), MGI's Verve Group is the market leader in mobile programmatic advertising for Android in North America with a 12% share. This exceeded the company's guidance at the upper end of the target range (revenue of EUR 315.0m to EUR 325.0m) and also our revenue estimate (GBCe: EUR 307.22m).
 
Parallel to the positive development of turnover, significant increases were achieved at the operating result level. Compared to the previous year, EBITDA grew significantly by 30.3% to EUR 84.75 million. Adjusted for one-off effects (e.g. special and restructuring costs from M&As), EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) also grew rapidly with a dynamic increase of 31.1% to EUR 93.20 million. Accordingly, the company's earnings guidance (Adj. EBITDA: EUR 83.0 million to EUR 93.0 million) and also our earnings estimate (Adj. EBITDA: EUR 91.72 million) were exceeded.
 
MGI's management is also positive about the current 2023 financial year and expects to continue on its growth path. Specifically, the technology company expects a renewed increase in sales revenues in a range of EUR 335.0 million to EUR 345.0 million. At the earnings level, an adjusted EBITDA of between EUR 95.0 million and EUR 105.0 million is to be achieved.  
As part of the publication of our research study on the preliminary annual results of MGI's 2022 financial year, we have slightly reduced our previous revenue and earnings forecasts for the current 2023 financial year for conservative reasons. For the following year, we have left our previous operating estimates unchanged. In view of the satisfactory Q1 performance, the positive corporate outlook and the reaffirmation of the medium-term guidance (revenue CAGR 25.0%-30.0%, EBITDA CAGR 25.0%-30.0%), we confirm our previous revenue and earnings forecasts for the current financial year and subsequent years. For 2022, we continue to expect revenues of EUR 340.12 million and EBITDA of EUR 89.44 million. For 2024 and 2025, we continue to expect revenues (EBITDA) of EUR 402.55 million (EUR 115.80 million) and EUR 471.39 million (EUR 136.14 million), respectively.
 
Overall, the MGI Group, with its good market positioning and fully-integrated programmatic ad tech platform with its own games content, should succeed in continuing its dynamic growth course in the future. While the technology company has built up a strong position on the supply side in recent years, with a strong SDK base in the premium mobile app sector, the demand side in particular should be the focus of targeted growth in the future and be further expanded. The Contextual Mobile Demand Side Platform 'Dataseat', which was acquired in 2022, was an important building block of MGI's growth strategy and has additionally strengthened the Demand Side and also underlines their growth ambitions in this business area.  
In addition, with liquidity of around EUR 130.0 million at the end of the first quarter of 2023, MGI continues to be in a good financial position and can thus take advantage of investment opportunities as well as being able to comfortably cushion recessionary macroeconomic situations. The gearing ratio, which was at a good level of 3.0x at the end of the last quarter, should also improve further in the short and medium term due to their positive cash flow and their expected EBITDA growth.
 
Based on our confirmed forecasts for the current financial year 2023 and the following years and the changed cost of capital (WACC), we have slightly lowered our previous price target to EUR 5.30 (previously: EUR 5.40). Our price target reduction is the result of higher capital costs (increase in the risk-free interest rate to 2.0% instead of the previous 1.5%). As a consequence of the unchanged high inflation, we have raised the terminal value growth rate to 2.5% (previously: 2.0%), which has had the effect of raising the target price. In view of the current share price level, we thus continue to assign a 'Buy' rating and see significant upside potential. The results of our peer group analysis (see p. 21) also support our assessment of the attractiveness and price potential of the MGI share.  

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/27233.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
[e-mail]
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung +++++++++++++++
Date (time) of completion: 20/06/2023 (8:43 am)
Date (time) of first distribution: 20/06/2023 (10:30 am)

übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Die MGI - Media and Games Invest Registered (A) Aktie wird zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung der Nachricht mit einem Plus von +2,49 % und einem Kurs von 0,945EUR auf Tradegate (20. Juni 2023, 10:12 Uhr) gehandelt.

Rating: BUY
Analyst: GBC