Original-Research

Vectron Systems AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Vectron Systems AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Vectron Systems AG

Unternehmen: Vectron Systems AG
ISIN: DE000A0KEXC7

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 10.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Matthias Greiffenberger

H1 2023: 'On track': Turnover in line with expectations; EBITDA climbs significantly; GBC-Forecasts raised; Target price raised to EUR10.00 (previously: EUR9.40); Rating: BUY
 
The first six months of 2023 were marked by the consolidation of acardo group AG, which was acquired on 1st January 2023. acardo sales, which were consolidated for the first time, contributed significantly to a strong increase in sales by 47.6 % to EUR 18.53 million (previous year: EUR 12.56 million). While sales in the POS segment (Vectron) increased organically by 4.6 % to EUR 13.13 million (previous year: EUR 12.56 million), the couponing segment (acardo) generated sales of EUR 5.40 million for the first time.  
With an EBITDA of EUR 1.66 million (previous year: EUR -0.54 million) the Vectron Group returned to the profit zone. The newly acquired acardo group AG made the largest contribution to the result with an EBITDA of EUR 1.35 million and is thus in line with management expectations. At the same time, it shows that the acquisition of acardo group AG has already had a sustainable positive effect on the profitability of the Vectron Group.   
The first-time consolidation of the acardo assets led to a significant increase in depreciation to EUR 2.08 million (previous year: EUR 0.78 million). Therefore, the EBIT of EUR -0.41 million (previous year: EUR -1.33 million) was once again below break-even, but was significantly improved. This also applies to the result for the Q2 period of EUR -0.47 million (previous year: EUR -0.98 million).
 
With the publication of the half-year report 2023, the Vectron management has confirmed the guidance published in March 2023. According to this, for the current business year 2023 sales of EUR 36.0 to 37.8 million and an EBITDA of EUR 1.3 to 2.2 million are still expected. For the coming financial year 2024, revenues of EUR 41.0 to 45.5 million and an EBITDA of EUR 4.0 to 6.2 million are still expected, and for 2025, revenues of EUR 48.8 to 54.2 million and an EBITDA of EUR 7.3 to 9.7 million. While the half-year revenues are in line with expectations, the EBITDA increase has been surprisingly strong.
 
Even though part of the half-year EBITDA of EUR 1.66 million achieved so far was influenced by special effects of around EUR 0.50 million, we consider the confirmed company guidance to be conservative. However, this should also take into account the fact that in the second half of 2023 there should no longer be a positive impact on earnings from extraordinary income. Furthermore, we assume that the Vectron board is deliberately acting cautiously against the background of the impending return to the standard Value Added Tax (VAT) of 19% for the catering/gastronomy industry. In the course of the Corona pandemic, the VAT rate, currently limited until 31 December 2023, was lowered to 7%.  An increase in the VAT rate could dampen the willingness to invest in the gastronomy sector. In addition, the current economic development in Germany is a risk factor for the second half of 2023.
 
Nevertheless, we are a little more optimistic and are raising our EBITDA forecast to EUR 2.54 million (previous GBC forecast: EUR 1.82 million) in view of the good half-year development. This includes a continued increase in recurring digital revenues, which should benefit from the base effect (higher number of contracts) on the one hand and the rising transaction volume on the other. The upcoming introduction of further digital modules in the second half of the year should also accelerate the increase in recurring revenues.
 
In our EBIT forecast for the current and the coming financial years, we take into account the PPA depreciation necessary after the first-time full consolidation of the acardo assets. According to our estimates, this should lead to an increase in depreciation of around EUR 2.0 million annually. Therefore, despite the raised EBITDA forecast, EBIT is likely to be lower than before. Adjusted for PPA depreciation, however, we expect EBIT of EUR 1.04 million for 2023 (previous forecast: EUR 0.32 million). For the next two financial years, we are keeping both the revenue and earnings estimates (EBITDA; EBIT before PPA) unchanged. However, PPA amortisation should have a negative impact on EBIT 'as reported' and the after-tax result.   
As the higher PPA amortisation does not affect cashflow and liquidity, it has no impact on the result of the DCF valuation model. Due to the forecast increase for the current financial year and the regular roll-over effect, we are raising the price target to EUR10.00 (previously: EUR9.40). We keep the rating BUY.
 
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/27745.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
[e-mail]
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion: 13.09.23 (3:02 pm)
Date (time) first transmission: 14.09.23 (09:00 am)

übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Die Vectron Systems Aktie wird zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung der Nachricht mit einem Minus von -0,39 % und einem Kurs von 5,10EUR auf Tradegate (13. September 2023, 22:26 Uhr) gehandelt.

Rating: BUY
Analyst: GBC