Original-Research

ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 21.03.2024
Target price: 51.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Elevated sales growth & Games gaining traction; chg. est.
Topic: Yesterday, ZEAL released Q4 results and issued a strong FY'24e sales guidance, well above expectations. Here are our key takeaways:
Blow-out sales guidance: ZEAL guides for sales of EUR 140-150m (eNuW old: EUR 135m; eCons: EUR 128m) and an EBITDA of EUR 38-42m (eNuW: EUR 45.3m; eCons: EUR 43m) with marketing expenses of EUR 40-45m (eNuW: EUR 42m). The elevated sales growth should stem from a growing billings margin (sales in % of billings) to above 15% by H2'24e (FY23: 12.8%; eNuW for FY'24e: 12.7%) thanks to 1) proactive shifting of players towards higher margin products (e.g., lottery clubs), 2) thintroduction of another highmargin social lottery next to 'freiheit+' and most importantly 3) going for price discrimination of users regarding the service fees as lottery players are very price insensitive. This is a strong leverage for ZEAL, given the high amount of billings, but on the other hand requires additional indirect expenses and marketing, burdening short-term profitability.

Q4'23 in line and FY targets reached: Lottery billings amounted to EUR 210m, 2% yoy (eNuW: EUR 208m), while sales developed accordingly to EUR 30m, -2% yoy (eNuW: EUR 28.8m; eCons: EUR 29.6m) and EBITDA came in at EUR 9.8m, +1.5% yoy (eNuW: EUR 11.8m; eCons: EUR 11.4m). On a FY basis, ZEAL recorded Lottery billings of EUR 843m (guidance: EUR 800-830m; eNuW: EUR 841m), sales of EUR 116m (guidance: EUR 110-120m; eNuW: EUR 115m) and an EBITDA of EUR 32.9m (guidance: EUR 30-35m; eNuW: EUR33.4m) with marketing expenses of EUR 36m (guidance: EUR 34-39m; eNuW: EUR 38.8m) - see p. 2 for details.

Upbeat Games adoption: while Q3'23 already showed a better-than-expected Games contribution, Q4 lifted the bar even higher. Games contributed with billings of EUR 25m (eNuW: EUR 19m) and sales of EUR 1.8m (eNuW: EUR 1.9m), meaning that the average Games customer (Q4: 18k) spends c. EUR 92 on Games (APPU) per month, generating revenues for ZEAL of EUR 33 per player and month (vs. EUR 7.80 ARPU at Lottery) and yielding a 36% pay-in margin (sales in % of pay-in). For now, this contributed with 6% of Q4 sales, but once scaled, the Games business should become a second strong pillar of growth and profitability for ZEAL, next to Lottery.

Squeeze-out of Lotto24 by mid'24e: ZEAL intends to squeeze-out the remaining shareholders of Lotto24 (acquired back in 2019) after having entered an agreement to acquire 0.6% of additional shares, raising the ownership to 95.45%. This should have value accretive effects due to 1) being able to form a corporate tax group allowing ZEAL to offset the high profits of Lotto24 with losses on holding level, especially as Lotto24's tax loss carry forward is used up now and 2) avoiding minority interest going forward. It should also lead to a normalization of ZEAL's elevated tax rate (FY'23e 39%, +12pp yoy) to 32% after the squeeze-out. The purchase price for the additional 0.6% of shares remained undisclosed and the squeeze-out price will be set by an independent auditor, hence uncertainty prevails regarding the total SO payment. Regarding financing, the company plans to take on additional debt, which we regard as unproblematic, given the strong net cash position (Y/E'23: EUR 30m).

In sum, we continue to like ZEAL's upbeat growth story and the strong operating leverage ZEAL's business provides. This, coupled with increasing contributions from Games should lead to notable margin expansions going forward. Moreover, our conservative CLTV estimate of ZEAL's total Lottery customer base (EUR 726m, see below) even exceeds the company's current market capitalisation, albeit not including the expected billings margin expansion to above 15% and also not including the potential stemming from Games.
Consequently, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchangend PT of EUR 51.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29211.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research. NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [e-mail]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

transmitted by EQS Group AG.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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ZEAL Network

+0,57 %

+5,42 %

+10,24 %

+14,75 %

-8,26 %

-20,90 %

+67,06 %

-40,68 %

+34,62 %

ISIN:DE000ZEAL241WKN:ZEAL24

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Die ZEAL Network Aktie wird zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung der Nachricht mit einem Plus von 0,00 % und einem Kurs von 28,95EUR auf Tradegate (21. März 2024, 09:02 Uhr) gehandelt.

Rating: BUY
Analyst: