Mexico Is Ready for a Takeoff in Consumer Spending, Powered by Rapid Growth in Middle-Income Households - Seite 2

The rapid expansion of Mexico's middle class, however, will be enough to push consumer spending to higher levels, even if economic growth remains modest. A powerful combination of demographic trends and a high degree of social mobility will work in Mexico's favor. Due to its young and growing population, the number of working-age Mexicans is projected to increase by 19 million over the next two decades. What's more, around two-thirds of Mexicans currently living in poverty -- some 3.9 million households -- have the potential to make the leap into the middle class over that period.

To understand which types of products are likely to see the biggest revenue gains, the authors analyzed historical consumption patterns in Mexico to see how rising incomes have influenced households' purchasing behavior in a wide range of product categories. And to understand Mexican consumers' current priorities, respondents were asked about their spending intentions for the year ahead with respect to the same product categories. By combining these analyses of past consumption patterns and future spending intentions, the study grouped product categories into four clusters that are characterized by their growth potential in Mexico over the near to medium term:

• Golden future product categories are projected to enjoy the strongest growth, because they will benefit both from strong historical patterns of surging spending as Mexican household incomes rise and a clear expression of intent by consumers to trade up to higher-value products. This cluster includes private medical services and some food items that stress health benefits.
  
  
• Aspirational growth product categories will benefit from the desire to trade up but not from demographic trends. Education and pharmaceuticals are examples of categories that fall in this cluster, and they should enjoy strong growth.
  
  
• No-frills growth product categories will benefit from demographic trends but relatively less from consumers' intentions to trade up. This segment includes such diverse product categories as travel, Internet and cell phone services, and alcoholic beverages.
  
  
• Self-propelled growth product categories will not benefit much from either demographic changes or trading up. Products in this cluster generally meet basic needs that already have been met in middle-income Mexican households. Washing machines are an example of a product in this cluster.