Marktkommentar

Morgan Harting (AB Europe): Es wird Gewinner und Verlierer geben

Letztes Jahr konnten Schwellenländer ihr Tal der Tränen hinter sich lassen. Morgan Harting beleuchtet den Markt und beschreibt, was 2017 auf ihn zukommen könnte.

• Towards the end of 2016, EM equity underperformed developed as investors saw rising risks from a stronger dollar, higher interest rates and the potential for more protectionist trade policies. Flows to the asset class had been positive through much of the year, but reversed at year end. Volatility rose, as did the correlation between EM stocks and bonds.  Underlying fundamentals held up, as evidenced by stability in the outlook for earnings growth and leading economic indicators.
• In the face of rising volatility in EM equity, US rates and the dollar, we reduced the allocation to equity in EMMA, and held an above-average level of cash in order to address the greater correlation between equity and debt.  When correlations are elevated, the benefit of downside protection from bonds is reduced, so cash provides better diversification
• Over the course of January, as economic data continued to come in favorably and sentiment improved for EM, we began to add back to EM equity.  We also made some shifts within the equity holdings in order to tilt toward higher beta and deeper value names which would benefit more from firming global growth and EM sentiment.
• The portfolio delivered strong absolute returns in January, outperforming developed market stocks, the S&P 500 and a blend of EM debt and equity.  As is expected in periods of sharply rising EM equity that follow reversals, the portfolio lagged the broad EM equity benchmark.  Given its lower risk posture, however, it provided clear alpha.
• Our research effort remains intense, collaborating actively across the multi-asset, equity and fixed income teams.  We have been highly engaged with companies and policymakers about the likely effects of policy changes from the new US administration.  In our view, there will be clear winners and losers this year as global growth firms, interest rates rise and EM earnings continue to recover, but with wide dispersion across companies and sectors.  In this setting, we believe the benefits of a highly flexible, benchmark agnostic strategy that can look across markets and regions to deliver equity returns with lower volatility will be particularly advantaged.
• We are seeing meaningful flows into the portfolio over recent weeks, in line with the broader trend toward a return of flows to emerging markets.