On the Road to Record Global Car Sales in 2015 -- Developed Markets Drive Gains

Scotiabank

TORONTO, ON--(Marketwired - August 12, 2015) - Global car sales advanced a slower-than-expected 2% in the first half of 2015, but remain on target to climb to the 6^th consecutive annual record, according to the Scotiabank Global Auto Report released today. Purchases are being supported by strengthening job creation in developed markets, improving household balance sheets, low interest rates and rising consumer confidence across much of the globe.

"Both Canada and Mexico will set sales records in 2015, while volumes in the United States will exceed 17 million units for the first time since 2001," said Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist and Auto Industry Specialist at Scotiabank. "Strengthening labour markets are driving the gains across the NAFTA region. Payrolls are advancing in excess of 5% year-over-year (y/y) in Mexico, growing at the fastest pace since the turn of the millennium in the United States and have gained momentum in Canada, especially in the industrial heartland of Central Canada and on the West Coast.

"Car sales in Western Europe accelerated to an 8% y/y increase, and will approach a full-year total of 13 million units for the first time in five years. In fact, Western Europe has become the auto industry's growth leader in 2015, with volumes advancing in 15 of the 18 countries in the region. Wages and salaries across the euro zone are advancing at the fastest pace since 2008. Income gains are much stronger in the United Kingdom, leading to a record 1.4 million cars sold in the first half of 2015, exceeding the 2004 peak."

Other highlights from the report include:

• Car sales in China have softened from the double-digit pace of the past decade. While there is potential for further short-term weakness, we believe that the downdraft will be temporary.
• Auto sales in India have advanced by 6% this year and will be supported going forward by an easing bias for monetary policy, strengthening economic growth and declining fuel prices.
• Auto sales and economic conditions continue to weaken in Russia and Brazil. Unemployment is on the rise in both countries alongside high interest rates and rising inflation.

Read the full Scotiabank Global Auto Report online at: http://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/0,,3112,00.html.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.

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For more information, please contact:

Carlos Gomes
Scotiabank Economics
[phone]
[e-mail]

For media enquiries only:

Devinder Lamsar
Public and Corporate Affairs
Scotiabank
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[e-mail]