Uranium Energy: An Under The Radar Uranium Play With Tremendous
Upside
May 7, 2012
Uranium stocks dropped significantly last year after the Fukushima
nuclear power accident. As fears of the danger of nuclear power
plants spread from the public to the investment community, uranium
stocks sold off. Even now, about 15 months after the accident,
there hasn't been much of an uptick in uranium stocks and that may
present an opportunity for investors.
First, let's take closer look at the carnage. Cameco (CCJ), the
largest pure play on uranium in the market with a market cap of
close to $9 billion, is down about 50% off its 2011 highs reached
just before the accident in Japan. Uranium Energy (UEC) was trading
close to $7 a share in February of 2011. Now, it's trading at just
under $3 a share, a fall of about 60%. Uranerz Energy (URZ) was
trading close to $6 a share early last year and now trades at just
over $1.50 a share, a fall of 70%.
The first half of the story is the drop in share prices. The second
half of the story is the fundamentals. Despite the impact of
Fukushima, the fundamentals of the uranium sector remain intact and
appear poised for both near-term and long-term growth. There are
currently 435 reactors operating, 62 reactors under construction,
156 reactors at the planning stage and 343 reactors under proposal.
China, India, Russia and South Korea, the four major drivers of
nuclear growth, have evaluated and renewed their commitment to
nuclear power.
In China alone, government sources have announced plans to
significantly increase Chinese nuclear capacity from 11GW today to
possibly 86GW or more by 2020. With the emerging markets continuing
to drive demand for nuclear power, the outlook for the uranium
industry remains strong.
For 2011, global uranium consumption was approximately 175 million
pounds while uranium production is estimated to reach only about
145 million pounds. To date, this shortfall has been made up from
secondary sources of uranium such as government inventories,
recycled materials, and down-blended weapons-grade material
provided under the HEU Agreement between the U.S. and Russia,
currently providing approximately 24 million pounds of supply
annually and set to expire in 2013.
Despite this need for new production, current price levels in the
range of $50 to $55 per pound are insufficient to incentivize the
development of new conventional uranium projects. At current
prices, for example, Kazakhstan, the source of nearly all
production growth in the last decade, has indicated that no new
uranium projects will be developed and, at the same time, is
attempting to minimize further downward pressure on uranium prices
by stabilizing its production levels. Over the course of the
previous year, emerging supply constraints have also been exposed
by operational challenges at existing mines and delays at
development projects across the globe. Furthermore, secondary
sources are expected to decrease over the long-term, especially
with the expiry of the HEU agreement.
The uranium story has even made mainstream media. According to a
recent Barron's article, "uranium prices are poised to steadily
increase over the next few years..." Further, an analyst noted in
the article that "most analysts expect the price of uranium to rise
from current levels of $50 to $65 (a pound) to $70 a pound over the
next two years." This increase in the price of uranium should be a
boost for uranium stocks. An analyst on Seeking Alpha is even more
bullish, suggesting that uranium could reach $200 a pound.
With that said, one uranium stock that's loved by investors and
analysts alike is Uranium Energy. Uranium Energy is a U.S.-based
exploration and development company focused on uranium production
in the U.S. The company is the newest uranium producer in North
America, operating the first new uranium mine in the U.S. in over
six years. In 2011, Uranium Energy completed its first full year of
production with a cumulative total of 236,000 lbs. of uranium
produced at average cost of $16 per pound, which the company then
sold at the current spot price of $52 per pound. Uranium utilizes
the In-Situ Recovery (ISR) production method, which is a more
cost-effective and environmentally friendly way of mining
uranium.
Well financed to execute on its key programs, the company controls
28 projects in the U.S. with total resources of more than 41.5M
lbs. U3O8. Uranium Energy's fully licensed and permitted Hobson
processing facility is central to all of its projects in South
Texas, eliminating the need to construct a new processing plant on
site at each project.
Additionally, Uranium Energy controls one of the largest databases
of historic uranium exploration and development in the nation.
Using this knowledge base, the company has acquired and is
advancing exploration properties of merit throughout the
southwestern U.S., a region known as being the most concentrated
area for uranium mining in the United States.
The company's strategy of acquiring exploration databases and
leveraging those databases to generate acquisition targets has
proven to be effective thus far. With plans to continue
aggressively pursuing this strategy, Uranium Energy is well
positioned to capitalize on the world's overwhelming demand for
more uranium, more energy, cheaper energy, and a cleaner
environment.
Analysts have a consensus target on the stock of close to $4.50,
upside of nearly 70% from today's share prices. A recent article by
a UEC investor suggested buying the dip in the stock when it was
over $3.30 a share, now it's sitting even lower at $2.70, an even
better entry point.
The combination of the drop in UEC's share price and the projected
supply/demand imbalance creates an unparalleled opportunity in UEC.
Just returning to pre-Fukushima levels would give investors a
return of 150%, a return that any investor would get excited about.
Taking into consideration the projected price increase in uranium
and that projected return increases even further.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/567321-uranium-energy-an-und…