Wetter- & Klimaereignisse mit hohen Versicherungsschäden (Seite 64)

[Popeye82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 57.567.726 von Steveguied am 17.04.18 21:21:39

Hallo Steve

Danke.
Auf Einige Vorige Sachen wollte ich evt nochmal zurückkommen,
jetzt erstmal kurz Was Anderes.


Ihr Bayern scheint Mir ja schon ein tolles, ganz vernünftiges Völkchen.
Bin dort wohnlich nicht ansässig, aber (m.E.n.), Ihr habt Stolz, Traditionen, könnt mir Euren Eigenen Mitteln arbeiten, Herz am Rechten Fleck, und könnt trotzdem rechnen.
Solche Dinge.
Also in der Summe geht Mein Eindruck dahin dass bei Euch "Herz und Verstand" sehr gut zusammenpassen(Was ich Vielen Anderen Bundesländern nicht unbedingt unterstellen würde).
Und Das ist Was Gutes, sehr wertvoll.

Jetzt lese ich aber so komische news Bayern will "psychisch Kranke wie Verbrecher behandeln".
Ist Das ziemlich aufgebauscht, muss man Dazu bestimmte Sachen wissen, oder sollte man sich über Euch Sorgen machen??

Also für Mich hört es sich echt gruselig an.

[Steveguied]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 57.532.598 von Popeye82 am 13.04.18 05:21:05

Hallo Popeye,
der Artikel ist super. Ich habe dazu auch einige Artikel gelesen. 2 Unterschiedliche Studien zu unterschiedlichen Zeiten mit unterschiedlichen Messmethoden sind zum selben Ergebnis gekommen. Die neuere Studie grenzt es zeitlich noch stärker ein und liefert damit einen umso stärken Beweis für die Einflussnahme des Menschen.
In Europa kommen wärmere Sommer und kältere Winter.

Es gab ja dazu auch schon einige Theorien. Eine Theorie besagt ja, dass in Europa irgendwann ein Winter kommen könnte, der so kalt würde, dass im Sommer der Schnee nicht mehr vollständig schmilzt und so eine neue Eiszeit ausgelöst würde. Wie, ob überhaupt und Wann weiß niemand.

Sehr interessant ist auch, dass zunächst mal mit der Verlangsamung des Golfstroms alle Meeresströmungen weltweit sich verlangsamen, weil der Golfstrom das Herzstück ist. Damit einher geht eine beschleunigte Erwärmung und es wird weniger CO2 von den Ozeanen aufgenommen werden und damit wohl die Erwärmung in doppelter Hinsicht beschleunigt.


Diesbezüglich ist es sehr spannend wie sich so die nächsten 10 Jahre entwickeln, um dann eindeutig einen klaren Trend erkennen zu können.


Danke für deine prima Arbeit.... Ist wirklich allererste Sahne...

Gruß
Stefan

[Popeye82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 57.520.046 von Popeye82 am 11.04.18 18:03:25

ocean has NOT collapsed

http://www.livescience.com/62283-weakest-atlantic-ocean-circ…

"What If the Ocean's Climate-Controlling 'Conveyor Belt' Came to a Halt?


By Mindy Weisberger, Senior Writer | April 12, 2018 07:05am ET

The 2004 film "The Day After Tomorrow" imagined a world in which the complete collapse of a climate-regulating Atlantic Ocean current triggered catastrophic sea-level rise and extreme weather events in the U.S.
Credit: Everett Collection

Freak floods drown buildings, bone-chilling air flash-freezes pedestrians and ice encases the Statue of Liberty. It sounds like a disaster movie, and well, it is: In 2004's "The Day After Tomorrow," the collapse of an ocean current in the North Atlantic sends the world into a whirlwind climate doomsday.

And while that ocean current has not actually collapsed, scientists reporting in two new studies have found that it's weakening, by a lot. In fact, the current hasn't been this sluggish in 1,500 years — a finding that could carry serious (although not disaster-movie serious) repercussions for weather and sea-level rise in locations around the world.

In the Atlantic Ocean, the current known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) ferries warm surface waters northward — where the heat is released into the atmosphere — and carries cold water south in the deeper ocean layers, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Its circulation transports heat around the globe like a conveyor belt, and if its movement were to stop, that heat would not get distributed, and weather havoc could ensue. [Doomsday: 9 Real Ways Earth Could End]

But the AMOC has been getting weaker, and cold, freshwater infusions by the runaway melting of glaciers, sea ice and permafrost are to blame, and the AMOC may weaken even further if temperatures on Earth continue to rise and ice reserves continue to melt, scientists reported in the two studies.

Written in sand

In one study, published yesterday (April 11) in the journal Nature, researchers analyzed ocean sediments in a core sampled off the eastern coast of the U.S., from depths where most of the water originated in the North Atlantic's Labrador Sea. They examined positions of different-size sand grains in the geologic record, to reconstruct how the flow of the currents that carried the grains may have changed over time, said study co-author Delia Oppo, a senior scientist in the geology and geophysics department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

The researchers traced the start of the current's weakening to the mid-19th century at the end of the Little Ice Age, a centuries-long period of extreme cold that froze northern Europe. When temperatures began warming up, freshwater from melting ice that flowed into the Nordic Seas would have diluted salty seawater near the surface. This weakened the current and prevented it from carrying bigger grains of sand as far as it used to, which told the scientists about differences in the current's strength, Oppo told Live Science.



The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, also known as the Gulf Stream System, brings warm waters from the South to the North, where it sinks into the deep and transports cold water from the North to the South. A weakening of this major ocean circulation can have widespread and potentially disruptive effects.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, also known as the Gulf Stream System, brings warm waters from the South to the North, where it sinks into the deep and transports cold water from the North to the South. A weakening of this major ocean circulation can have widespread and potentially disruptive effects.
Credit: Caesar/PIK



Then, beginning in the 1950s, another stage of warming and ice melt began in the Northern Hemisphere — this time, likely driven by human-induced climate change — infusing the sea with more chilly fresh water and further weakening the ocean circulation system, study lead author David Thornalley, a senior lecturer at University College London, told Live Science in an email.

"Theory and models show the AMOC weakens when there is warming and increased input of freshwater, and these are both things being observed as part of global warming," Thornalley said. The research team estimated that, since the current began to lose strength in the mid-1800s, it has weakened by about 15 to 20 percent.

Finding the "fingerprint"

Another study, also published today in Nature, arrived at the same conclusions about a weakened AMOC — this time, by reviewing sea-surface temperature data going back to the late 19th century. In this study, the researchers' temperature analysis confirmed computer models' predictions of AMOC behavior and suggested a decline of about 15 percent in current circulation strength, beginning in the 1950s.

"The evidence we're now able to provide is the most robust to date," study co-author and oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of physics of the oceans at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said in a statement.

The researchers detected an ocean temperature pattern that was a "fingerprint" for an AMOC slowdown: anomalous warming in the Gulf Stream and cooler waters near Greenland, suggesting that warm water was not being transported north as effectively as it once was, according to the study.

"The specific trend pattern we found in measurements looks exactly like what is predicted by computer simulations as a result of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream system," Rahmstorf said. "And I see no other plausible explanation for it."

Though these two research teams used different methods, they arrived at a similar conclusion: that a crucial part of the climate system on our dynamic planet is not performing as it once did.

"What's happening now is that the evidence is converging from different sources," Oppo told Live Science. "So, we're becoming more and more confident, as we see several studies starting to show similar things using different approaches." [7 Ways the Earth Changes in the Blink of an Eye]

An uncertain future

While the complete disintegration of the AMOC is extremely unlikely, the ocean circulation system will probably continue to weaken, and that prospect is far from reassuring, Oppo told Live Science. Prior research has suggested that a feeble AMOC brings more dryness to the Sahel, a region of Africa bordering the Sahara Desert; spurs sea-level rise in U.S. coastal cities; encourages patterns of increasingly cold winters in Europe and the northeastern U.S.; and prompts warmer summers across Europe. However, more research is needed to confirm a persistent connection, Oppo said.

But a weakened AMOC does make the ocean less effective at absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Oppo noted. If the ocean current continues to weaken, it will likely take up even less CO2, leading to higher quantities of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and potentially worsening the effects of global warming, she said.

"More research into the potential weather impacts of an AMOC slowdown and the associate sea surface temperature pattern is needed, given the results of the two new studies suggesting a weak AMOC that is likely to weaken further," Thornalley told Live Science.

Editor's Note: This article was updated to clarify some statements from Delia Oppo.

Original article on Live Science."

[Popeye82]

melting of Arctic Mountain Glaciers Unprecedented in the Past 400 Years

http://www.rdmag.com/news/2018/04/melting-arctic-mountain-gl…

"Glaciers in Alaska's Denali National Park are melting faster than at any time in the past four centuries because of rising summer temperatures, a new study finds.



New ice cores taken from the summit of Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park show summers there are least 1.2-2 degrees Celsius (2.2-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than summers were during the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries. The warming at Mt. Hunter is about double the amount of warming that has occurred during the summer at areas at sea level in Alaska over the same time period, according to the new research.

The warmer temperatures are melting 60 times more snow from Mt. Hunter today than the amount of snow that melted during the summer before the start of the industrial period 150 years ago, according to the study. More snow now melts on Mt. Hunter than at any time in the past 400 years, said Dominic Winski, a glaciologist at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire and lead author of the new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The new study's results show the Alaska Range has been warming rapidly for at least a century. The Alaska Range is an arc of mountains in southern Alaska home to Denali, North America's highest peak.

The warming correlates with hotter temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the study's authors. Previous research has shown the tropical Pacific has warmed over the past century due to increased greenhouse gas emissions.

The study's authors conclude warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean has contributed to the unprecedented melting of Mt. Hunter's glaciers by altering how air moves from the tropics to the poles. They suspect melting of mountain glaciers may accelerate faster than melting of sea level glaciers as the Arctic continues to warm.

Understanding how mountain glaciers are responding to climate change is important because they provide fresh water to many heavily-populated areas of the globe and can contribute to sea level rise, Winski said.

"The natural climate system has changed since the onset of the anthropogenic era," he said. "In the North Pacific, this means temperature and precipitation patterns are different today than they were during the preindustrial period."

Assembling a long-term temperature record

Winski and 11 other researchers from Dartmouth College, the University of Maine and the University of New Hampshire drilled ice cores from Mt. Hunter in June 2013. They wanted to better understand how the climate of the Alaska Range has changed over the past several hundred years, because few weather station records of past climate in mountainous areas go back further than 1950.

The research team drilled two ice cores from a glacier on Mt. Hunter's summit plateau, 13,000 feet above sea level. The ice cores captured climate conditions on the mountain going back to the mid-17th century.

The physical properties of the ice showed the researchers what the mountain's past climate was like. Bands of darker ice with no bubbles indicated times when snow on the glacier had melted in past summers before re-freezing.

Winski and his team counted all the dark bands - the melt layers - from each ice core and used each melt layer's position in the core to determine when each melt event occurred. The more melt events they observed in a given year, the warmer the summer.

They found melt events occur 57 times more frequently today than they did 150 years ago. In fact, they counted only four years with melt events prior to 1850. They also found the total amount of annual meltwater in the cores has increased 60-fold over the past 150 years.

The surge in melt events corresponds to a summer temperature increase of at least 1.2-2 degrees Celsius (2.2-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) relative to the warmest periods of the 18th and 19th centuries, with nearly all of the increase occurring in the last 100 years. Because there were so few melt events before the start of the 20th century, the temperature change over the past few centuries could be even higher, Winski said.

Connecting the Arctic to the tropics

The research team compared the temperature changes at Mt. Hunter with those from lower elevations in Alaska and in the Pacific Ocean. Glaciers on Mt. Hunter are easily influenced by temperature variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean because there are no large mountains to the south to block incoming winds from the coast, according to the researchers.

They found during years with more melt events on Mt. Hunter, tropical Pacific temperatures were higher. The researchers suspect warmer temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean amplify warming at high elevations in the Arctic by changing air circulation patterns. Warmer tropics lead to higher atmospheric pressures and more sunny days over the Alaska Range, which contribute to more glacial melting in the summer, Winski said.

"This adds to the growing body of research showing that changes in the tropical Pacific can manifest in changes across the globe," said Luke Trusel, a glaciologist at Rowan University in Glassboro, New Jersey who was not connected to the study. "It's adding to the growing picture that what we're seeing today is unusual.""

[Popeye82]

- NASA Goddard
Am 23.03.2018 veröffentlicht
Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent on March 17, according to analysis by NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The 2018 extent reached 5.59 million square miles, only about 23,000 square miles larger than the lowest maximum on record, in 2017.

This continues a trend of shrinking sea ice, with the four lowest Arctic sea ice maximum extents on record in the last four years. Dr. Claire Parkinson explains how and why NASA studies Arctic sea ice.

Read more: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/...

Music: Children's Carousel by Maxi Schulze [GEMA], Moritz Limmer [GEMA] Complete transcript available.

This video is public domain and along with other supporting visualizations can be downloaded from the Scientific Visualization Studio at: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12898

Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center/Kathryn Mersmann

If you liked this video, subscribe to the NASA Goddard YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/NASAExplorer
Follow NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
· Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/NASA.GSFC
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[Steveguied]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 57.127.773 von Popeye82 am 27.02.18 06:39:29

Die Kälte über Europa zum Frühling hin ist weniger ein Zeichen, dass es die Klimaerwärmung nicht gibt, sondern im Gegenteil. Die Probleme fangen im Jetstream an, der nicht mehr der ist der er mal war und zuweilen nun sogar in der Winterzeit anfängt zu kollabieren. Das Extremwetter nimmt damit zu, temporär sind damit auch mal sehr viel tiefere Temperaturen als normal möglich. Man muss aber ein Jahr insgesamt betrachten und dann sind sogar mehrjährige Betrachtungsweisen noch besser, um eine Tendenz fürs Klima ableiten zu können.

XIO hatte mal vor ein paar Jahren voller Stolz gepostet, dass wir den kältesten Winter seit Menschengedenken in Nordamerika erlebt haben. Ich habe damals schon gesagt warte das Ganze Jahr ab. Zag es war wieder global und insgesamt betrachtet das Wärmste Jahr seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen. Man darf den Fehler nicht machen und verwechselt regionales Wetter mit Klima.

Diese Zunahme des Extremwetters ausgelöst durch Probleme beim Jetstream bedrohen Ernten. Dürren nehmen zu, Überschwemmungen nehmen zu, Hitzeperioden nehmen zu. Hier in unmittelbarer Nachbarschaft ist ein Haselnussstrauch. Der hatte im Januar schon das Blühen angefangen. Tja jetzt sind diese Fäden oder wie das heißt abgefallen und liegen erfroren auf dem Boden. Es sind sogar die Schneeglöckchen erfroren und das auch unmittelbar vorm Haus, wo es normal wärmer ist. Die Schneeglöckchen haben übrigens Ende Januar bereits geblüht. Das mit den Haselnüssen könnte interessant sein, ob das nur bei uns in der Münchner Ecke so fatal war, oder auch andernorts. Letztes Jahr ist übrigens die Apfelernte zu einem guten Teil erfroren. Es hatte im April nochmal Frost, was an sich überhaupt nichts ungewöhnliches ist. Noch vor 10 Jahren war Frost bis weit in den Mai längst keine Seltenheit. Jedenfalls fing es ab Januar an frühlingshaft zu werden und die Apfelblüte war bis 4-8 Wochen früher und damit war der Aprilfrost das Problem. An sich, wenn man frühere Jahre nimmt totaler Regelfall.

Gruß

[Popeye82]

Last Week, the Arctic Was Warmer Than Europe

http://www.livescience.com/61864-arctic-temperatures-record-…

[Steveguied]

Alpen: Viel Schnee will nichts heißen - Klimawandel bedroht Skitourismus

https://www.gmx.net/magazine/reise/alpen-schnee-heissen-klim…

Ich war seit 2010 überhaupt nicht mehr Ski fahren. Seit 06/07 wurde es immer schwieriger mit dem Ski fahren. Manchmal gibt es einen Winter mit Schnee (wie dieses Jahr auch) und man kann Ski fahren. Die tief gelegenen Schneegebiete haben aber teils seit Jahren schon gar kein Schnee mehr. Erst so über 1.500 Metern hat man einigermaßen Schnee aber auch das immer seltener.

[Popeye82]

http://news.utexas.edu/2017/11/01/winds-driving-warm-water-u…

[picard03]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 56.062.244 von Popeye82 am 30.10.17 22:35:21

Spannendes und Menschheits- überlebenswichtiges Thema!