LYNAS - auf dem Weg zu einem Rohstoffproduzent von Hightech-Rohstoffen (Seite 4896)
eröffnet am 09.02.07 13:14:18 von
neuester Beitrag 24.05.24 08:35:09 von
neuester Beitrag 24.05.24 08:35:09 von
Beiträge: 57.652
ID: 1.110.967
ID: 1.110.967
Aufrufe heute: 30
Gesamt: 9.816.526
Gesamt: 9.816.526
Aktive User: 0
ISIN: AU000000LYC6 · WKN: 871899 · Symbol: LYI
4,0310
EUR
-3,98 %
-0,1670 EUR
Letzter Kurs 24.05.24 Tradegate
Neuigkeiten
| TitelBeiträge |
|---|
21.05.24 · inv3st.de Anzeige |
18.04.24 · Der Aktionär TV  |
23.01.24 · kapitalerhoehungen.de |
Werte aus der Branche Rohstoffe
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 60,30 | +50,00 | |
| 227,00 | +28,00 | |
| 13,160 | +22,19 | |
| 1.282,60 | +12,04 | |
| 0,7540 | +9,71 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 14,843 | -8,77 | |
| 0,7500 | -9,09 | |
| 9,9500 | -9,95 | |
| 2,4300 | -11,31 | |
| 46,69 | -98,00 |
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Feedback
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.628 von zopa am 15.09.10 22:26:46hey zopa, is ja richtig was du schreibst, aber lass uns mal sachlich bleiben...ich finde seine Beiträge teilweise ganz i.O. (z.B. HotCopper)...
@AR: du schreibst einfach manchmal zu viel
aber is doch kein Grund jetzt hier zu "flamen", genießt die Hausse und bleibt bei euren Leisten, ausserdem @zopa: es gibt es den IGNORE-Knopf...und wenn dir das was ich jetzt geschrieben habe auch nicht passt kannste gleich 2 User auf Ignore machen - alles klaro?
achja auch wenns schon oft gefallen ist, aber DANKE an JOJO für seine Arbeit und Zeit, Lynas als dickste Posi im Depot macht sich schon gut
@AR: du schreibst einfach manchmal zu viel
aber is doch kein Grund jetzt hier zu "flamen", genießt die Hausse und bleibt bei euren Leisten, ausserdem @zopa: es gibt es den IGNORE-Knopf...und wenn dir das was ich jetzt geschrieben habe auch nicht passt kannste gleich 2 User auf Ignore machen - alles klaro?
achja auch wenns schon oft gefallen ist, aber DANKE an JOJO für seine Arbeit und Zeit, Lynas als dickste Posi im Depot macht sich schon gut
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.628 von zopa am 15.09.10 22:26:46Ok ok! Könntest Du mir BITTE ein Bier bringen? Das wäre nett!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.613 von aktien_research am 15.09.10 22:24:13Du scheinst die Bedingung nicht begriffen zu haben ...
Habe ich eigentlich schon erwähnt, dass ich wider an Bord bin?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.410 von zopa am 15.09.10 21:50:01Nett von Dir - ich hätte gern ein Bier!
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.289 von aktien_research am 15.09.10 21:32:2714.09.:
Ich bin jedenfalls erst einmal an der Seitenline und jederzeit bereit wieder mitzuspielen.
Zuschauer haben das Maul zu halten und für Getränke zu sorgen !
Ich bin jedenfalls erst einmal an der Seitenline und jederzeit bereit wieder mitzuspielen.
Zuschauer haben das Maul zu halten und für Getränke zu sorgen !
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.289 von aktien_research am 15.09.10 21:32:27so und nicht anderst! ich glaube ebenfalls dass es das noch nicht war...die nächsten Wochen werden wir noch weiter gen Norden laufen. Bin hier seit einigen Jahren (~5) am Ball, erste Posi damals zu 0,65€ und dann nach und nach gelegt, und bald wird ein Teil geernet - aber nicht zu bald 
auf grüne Zeiten
ich glaube ebenfalls dass es das noch nicht war...die nächsten Wochen werden wir noch weiter gen Norden laufen. Bin hier seit einigen Jahren (~5) am Ball, erste Posi damals zu 0,65€ und dann nach und nach gelegt, und bald wird ein Teil geernet - aber nicht zu bald 
auf grüne Zeiten
von hotcopper:
You are spot on on a number of things. Morgan Stanley are not advising on the stock at present. Rumour is they are raising a small amount of $ to help bring full production (22,000 tonnes) forward as well as fund an extra crusher. I can't see this being anything but very good for the stock and I hope it is true even though any placement is likely to go to instos only. I suppose if they were acting for a potential bidder that would be just as good. I have mentioned to you before that LYC has caught the attention of some big resource players.
Anyway, let's wait for the facts to come to light, which you would suspect would be any day now.
One fact we do know is that the rare earth price built in to JP Morgans last valuation of $1.35 was $24 per kg and is now more than double today. Of course there is also the resource upgrade. So a new valuation MUST have a $2+ in front of it.
So, why am I still buying LYC today (I did buy 50,000 today at 1.35) after riding it and accumulating since 50 cents:
- its EPS (which is also almost free cash flow)at today's rare earth prices is 60 cents by my calcs.I'm ignoring tax here as they will have significant depreciating benefits. Even if the rare earth price falls from here, given Chinese quota restrictions, ever increasing rare earth demand, the fact that LYC will produce well before most of its competitors and the fact that the company is in no hurry to lock away contracts suggest that the long term rare earth price (2011 and beyond) will be well above $30kg. So if I remain very conservative and take 30 bucks and include some extra shares for the possible capital raising (say another 100 mill shares), the EPS is still about 38 cents. Applying a multiple of 7-10 gives you a minimum of $2.70 up to $3.80. I reckon that's got to be worse case with best case closer to $5++ if the rare earth price holds at $50+ (heaven help if it keeps on going up)
- its resource upgrade, all be it a lower quality, definitely will significantly extend it's mine life which normally leads to a higher multiple due to sustainability of earnings
- it has no debt and has put in place a very important working capital facility
- it has publicly said it is in no hurry to lock in pricing on supply contracts (mgt will know more about the rare earth price than us - they won't just be relying on Metal Prices - they will be living and breathing it with likely customers)
- rare earth demand is increasing - Go to Johnson Controls Inc website - they are one of the USA's biggest listed companies - they state that hybrid cars are going to be the thing of the future - it's only a matter of time
- LYC will be producing well before their competitors - the early bird gets the worm and that is why I love the idea of a small capital raising (even if it goes straight to instos and we miss out) as it allows them to fully produce earlier and take advantage of their competitive advantage
- and finally, I love the fact that 13D, one of the USA's most distinguished but very private research house, has pushed LYC and the rare earth space
Sorry for the long post but I think many of you have been long term holders and it's been wroth the wait. But I reckon the next few weeks might make it even more special IMHO. You run a big risk thinking that the stock will come back from here, even if there is a small capital raising
You are spot on on a number of things. Morgan Stanley are not advising on the stock at present. Rumour is they are raising a small amount of $ to help bring full production (22,000 tonnes) forward as well as fund an extra crusher. I can't see this being anything but very good for the stock and I hope it is true even though any placement is likely to go to instos only. I suppose if they were acting for a potential bidder that would be just as good. I have mentioned to you before that LYC has caught the attention of some big resource players.
Anyway, let's wait for the facts to come to light, which you would suspect would be any day now.
One fact we do know is that the rare earth price built in to JP Morgans last valuation of $1.35 was $24 per kg and is now more than double today. Of course there is also the resource upgrade. So a new valuation MUST have a $2+ in front of it.
So, why am I still buying LYC today (I did buy 50,000 today at 1.35) after riding it and accumulating since 50 cents:
- its EPS (which is also almost free cash flow)at today's rare earth prices is 60 cents by my calcs.I'm ignoring tax here as they will have significant depreciating benefits. Even if the rare earth price falls from here, given Chinese quota restrictions, ever increasing rare earth demand, the fact that LYC will produce well before most of its competitors and the fact that the company is in no hurry to lock away contracts suggest that the long term rare earth price (2011 and beyond) will be well above $30kg. So if I remain very conservative and take 30 bucks and include some extra shares for the possible capital raising (say another 100 mill shares), the EPS is still about 38 cents. Applying a multiple of 7-10 gives you a minimum of $2.70 up to $3.80. I reckon that's got to be worse case with best case closer to $5++ if the rare earth price holds at $50+ (heaven help if it keeps on going up)
- its resource upgrade, all be it a lower quality, definitely will significantly extend it's mine life which normally leads to a higher multiple due to sustainability of earnings
- it has no debt and has put in place a very important working capital facility
- it has publicly said it is in no hurry to lock in pricing on supply contracts (mgt will know more about the rare earth price than us - they won't just be relying on Metal Prices - they will be living and breathing it with likely customers)
- rare earth demand is increasing - Go to Johnson Controls Inc website - they are one of the USA's biggest listed companies - they state that hybrid cars are going to be the thing of the future - it's only a matter of time
- LYC will be producing well before their competitors - the early bird gets the worm and that is why I love the idea of a small capital raising (even if it goes straight to instos and we miss out) as it allows them to fully produce earlier and take advantage of their competitive advantage
- and finally, I love the fact that 13D, one of the USA's most distinguished but very private research house, has pushed LYC and the rare earth space
Sorry for the long post but I think many of you have been long term holders and it's been wroth the wait. But I reckon the next few weeks might make it even more special IMHO. You run a big risk thinking that the stock will come back from here, even if there is a small capital raising
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.202 von vindulce am 15.09.10 21:18:211,66 Mrd. Kapitalisierung..das ist doch schon ganz schön abgehoben.
Viel zu hoch.
Zu hoch für Dein kleines Gehirn? Rechne mal: 22000t * (50-7US$/kg) = 946Mio USD/Jahr
Da finde ich 1,66 Mrd deutlich zu niedrig bewertet.
Findest Du eigentlich auch, wenn 1 Auto 20.000 Euro kostet, einen Preis von beispielsweise 5 oder 10 Mrd Euro für 1.000.000 Autos für viel zu hoch? Ich fänds billig! So wie Dein letztes Posting!
Viel zu hoch.
Zu hoch für Dein kleines Gehirn? Rechne mal: 22000t * (50-7US$/kg) = 946Mio USD/Jahr
Da finde ich 1,66 Mrd deutlich zu niedrig bewertet.
Findest Du eigentlich auch, wenn 1 Auto 20.000 Euro kostet, einen Preis von beispielsweise 5 oder 10 Mrd Euro für 1.000.000 Autos für viel zu hoch? Ich fänds billig! So wie Dein letztes Posting!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.158.005 von aktien_research am 15.09.10 20:45:211,66 Mrd. Kapitalisierung..das ist doch schon ganz schön abgehoben.
Viel zu hoch.Eine Bruhigung und Konsolidierung wird wohl kommen müssen.
Viel zu hoch.Eine Bruhigung und Konsolidierung wird wohl kommen müssen.
Durchsuchen
23.01.24 · kapitalerhoehungen.de · BASF |
22.01.24 · wallstreetONLINE Redaktion · Lynas Rare Earths |
08.08.23 · nebenwerte ONLINE · Lynas Rare Earths |
21.06.23 · Konstantin Oldenburger · Lynas Rare Earths |