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schrieb am 24.02.11 19:40:50
Wie hoch schätzt ihr eine Kursveränderung mittelfristig aufgrund
eines eventuellen Zuschlags ?
schrieb am 10.03.11 05:48:10
Author and trade expert Clyde Prestowitz warns that it would take
up to a 50 percent devaluation of the dollar against the Chinese
yuan and an end to the greenback as the global reserve currency to
truly right the global trade economy.
Prestowitz is founder and president of the Economic Strategy
Institute and formerly a counselor to the Secretary of Commerce
during the Reagan Administration.
In a post at the website of Foreign Policy magazine, Prestowitz
details a list of scheduled global banking and trade discussions.
Then he dismisses them all, saying that the real problems facing
the U.S. economy relate to a fundamental imbalance that cannot be
negotiated or smoothed over by simply talking.
“At present, virtually all the world's economies are attempting to
grow and create jobs by exporting primarily to the United States,
which, despite the recent economic crisis, high unemployment, and a
fragile recovery, is still acting as the world's buyer of last
resort,” Prestowitz writes.
US dollar is global reserve currency
“But with its budget deficits, and global indebtedness rising and
true unemployment hovering around 17 percent, the ability of the
United States to continue this role while also acting as the global
security provider is questionable,” he explains.
China and “other high-growth emerging economies” cannot grow,
either, using cheap currencies, financing domestic construction
booms, and maintaining low internal consumption. “Few believe this
situation to be indefinitely sustainable,” he says.
The “fix” means the following things are due to occur, Prestowitz
• The United States must solve its budget deficits while “doubling
present household savings rates.”
• “Massive investment” in U.S. infrastructure and a renewed
• A 40 percent to 50 percent devaluation of the greenback against
the yuan and “some other Asian currencies,” along with “a lesser
devaluation” against the euro or “a new German deutschmark” if the
euro ceases to exist.
• And finally, possibly the end of the dollar as the global reserve
• An increase in consumption and a reduction in saving, production,
and exports by Germany, China, Japan, and the east Asian “tigers”
as they revalue their own currencies.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, speaking to the Senate
Thursday, said there was "no material risk" to the dollar’s role as
the global reserve currency.
The real risk, he said, would be if the United States lost global
confidence in its “financial leadership" position in the world.
"That is the only risk to the role of the dollar," Geithner
Buying Japanese Stocks as the Economic Slump Continues
So, let's look across the wide Pacific...to the land that invented
suicide bombing. Did we update you on our "Trade of the Decade"? We
did? We thought so...
And here's our old friend Marc Faber...with the same idea (or at
least half of it.) Buy Japanese stocks, he says...
After a two-decade bear market, now is the time to buy and hold
Japanese stocks, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom &
Doom report, said.
Faber, who is credited with predicting the 1987 stock market crash
and said two years ago that shares would decline just as they began
the biggest rally in more than 50 years, said the Japanese
government will be forced to print money to monetize the country's
public debt, the developed world's biggest. That will cause the yen
to weaken, helping boost earnings for the nation's exporters and
buoying stock prices.
Faber joins other bullish investors on Japan, such as Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. and David Herro of Oakmark International Fund, in
countering skepticism about Japan earned through four recessions
and dismal stock returns after the 1990 crash of the bubble
economy. The Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average has fallen about 73
percent since it peaked in December 1989.
"If I had to make a bet for the next ten years in terms of equity
markets, I would seriously consider a very strong weighting here in
Japan," Faber said yesterday at the CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets'
annual conference in Tokyo. "Once the debt market starts to go
down, the yen will begin to weaken and that will lift equity
prices. I would buy equities at the present time."
But wait. What's this?
Here's Dennis Gartman with a nuance:
Japan is demographically and fiscally doomed. Her population is
collapsing in size and growing elderly at the same time, while her
fiscal circumstances are far and away the worst of the
industrialized world. Japan has survived for decades in a strange
world of fiscal irresponsibility by being able to sell her debt to
her own people rather than to the rest of the world as the US can
do and must.
Of course, this just supports our position. The Japanese soon will
have a bitter choice. Either they abandon their whole silly
economic model - with its eternal stimulus budgets and its
perpetual zero interest rates. Or they print money. If they give
up, it will bring on the final and devastating bottom of their
21-year slump. If they print money, on the other hand...they might
hold off the disaster long enough to make it worse.
It is a bit like their situation after the Battle of Midway. Had
they examined their situation carefully, they would have seen that
the gods of war had gone over to the other side. They faced a
superior adversary. And they were out of fuel. They needed control
of the seas in order to re-supply; and they had just lost it.
What to do? They had a choice. They could have pulled back to the
home island, begged forgiveness and negotiated a settlement.
Instead, they soldiered on...in a long, hard, nasty retreat...and
eventually turned to kamikaze pilots to try to save the day.
What choice will they make this time? Probably, they'll print
money. Inflation rates will rise. Japanese government bonds will
collapse. And investors will try to protect themselves from
inflation by buying stocks.
And more thoughts...
Let's look at the US. What is different in America, compared to
Huge deficits? Check.
Zero interest rates? Check.
Great Correction? Check.
Out-of-control spending on old people? Check. (About which, more
In Japan, the financial structure will come down when the country
has to begin relying on foreign investors to fund its deficits. The
foreigners will look at the figures and inevitably want higher
interest rates to protect them against defaults and inflation.
But the US already counts on foreign investors to fund its huge
Which one will get blown away first? Our money is on Japan.
*** Want a peek at the future? The New York Times gave it to us
Vallejo, a city about 25 miles north of San Francisco, offers a
sneak preview of what could be the latest version of economic
disaster. When the foreclosure wave hit, local tax revenue
evaporated. The city managers couldn't make their budget and
eliminated financing for the local museum, the symphony and the
senior center. The city begged the public-employee unions for pay
cuts - all to no avail. In May 2008, Vallejo filed for bankruptcy.
The filing drew little national attention; most people were too
busy watching banks fail to worry about cities. But while the banks
have largely recovered, Vallejo is still in bankruptcy. The police
force has shrunk from 153 officers to 92. Calls for any but the
most serious crimes go unanswered. Residents who complain about
prostitutes or vandals are told to fill out a form. Three of the
city's firehouses were closed. Last summer, a fire ravaged a house
in one of the city's better neighborhoods; one of the firetrucks
came from another town, 15 miles away. Is this America's
Cities across America are facing dire financial distress. Meredith
Whitney, a banking analyst turned independent adviser who correctly
predicted the banking meltdown, has issued an Armageddon-like
prediction of mass municipal defaults. Others - notably Newt
Gingrich - have suggested that state governments as well as cities
should be allowed to file for bankruptcy. Congress held a hearing
to examine the idea.
These forecasts of apocalypse have touched a nerve. Americans,
still reeling from the devastating impact of the mortgage debacle,
are fearful that the next economic disaster is only a matter of
time. To anyone reading the headlines of budget deficits and
staggering pension liabilities, it takes little imagination to
conclude that the next big one will be government itself. The
problems of cities are everywhere. The city council of Harrisburg,
the capital of Pennsylvania, has enlisted a big New York law firm
to explore bankruptcy as a means of restructuring a crushing debt.
Central Falls, R.I., is in receivership. Hamtramck, Mich., a small
city within Detroit's borders, says it could run out of money next
month. Hamtramck has only 90 employees, yet it is saddled with the
pensions and health care obligations of 252 retirees. Detroit
itself is at risk. Large deficits will mean closing about half of
the city's schools and will push high-school class sizes to 60
The United States has nearly $3 trillion in municipal bonds
schrieb am 10.03.11 05:54:08
Rechnungsstellung in EURO ist als Weltwährung durchsetzbar, wenn
man will. Der Yuan löst sich vom US-$, warum haben nicht auch die
Europäer den Mut für ihre Währung. Alles wird schlecht geredet, der
US-$ ist noch weicher als der Euro, aber alle schauen auf den US-$.
Eigene Ratingagenturen in Europa könnten vor Ort die Situation hier
besser einschätzen. Mehr Mumm meine Damen und Herren!
schrieb am 10.03.11 05:55:50
Statt Produktion in USA bietet sich Kanada, Brasilien und
Argentinien an. Wir müssen uns nicht dem Protektionismus der USA
schrieb am 10.03.11 06:35:28
Damit mir keiner Plagiatsvorwürfe machen kann. der Autor in
Englisch des obigen Textes ist:
schrieb am 10.03.11 06:55:27
Die Produktion des A380 läuft. Das es Probleme bei neuen
Technologien und Anlaufschwierigkeiten eines Models gibt liegt in
der Komplexität des Produkts. Hier sollten die bisherigen
Erfahrungen einfließen. Es haben sich 2 Varianten herausgebildet.
Die Exclusive A30 Version mit Duschen und die zwar noch komfortable
Version aber auf Massentransport ausgerichtete Version des A380.
Warum bietet man diese nicht als A381 und A382 mit einem ECO
Triebwerk von MTU an?
schrieb am 10.03.11 07:05:22
Wie sind die Fortschritte beim A350 und des Militärtransporters.
Auch Europa und Südamerika braucht Tankflugzeuge, warum legt man
nicht eine Kleinserie A320T an, die eine Variation des A320
darstellt, für diese Länder. Im Militärbereich kombinierte
Flugzeugträger für Militärjets und Hubschrauber, benötigen
entsprechende Flugzeuge. Der Einsatz in Krisengebiete per
schwimmenden Flugzeug plus auf Natostützpunkte, ermöglicht diese
Flugzeuge rasch einzusetzen. Die Lage in Libyen zeigt das Schiffe
zu langsam sind, um schnell eingesetzt zu werden. Kleinere
Flugzeugträger aber neue Möglichkeiten bieten. Auch bei der
Verfolgung von Piraten.
schrieb am 06.04.11 12:48:36
Boing muss ALLE 737 auf Risse überprüfen. Das kostet nicht nur
Geld, sondern auch Image.Ähnlich wie bei den Triebwerken von Rolls
Royce für die A380 letztes Jahr. Jetzt ist das Problem aber gelöst.
Technische Probleme bei neuen Modellen sind bei einem komplexen
Produkt immer möglich. Langfristig auftretende Probleme sind da
etwas anders gelagert.
schrieb am 21.04.11 17:31:01
EADS ist nichts für shorties. Produktpalette wächst aber stetig
weiter und der A350 wird sehnlichst erwartet.
schrieb am 12.05.11 20:19:44
Die Rumpfschale für den A350 ist in Stade in Produktion gegangen.
Spezialisten leisten etwas Besonderes, alter Slogan von ...???
Jedenfalls trifft es hier auch zu. Serienfertigung 2013.