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    Noobtraders - or "rolleg´s edge" (Seite 1975)

    eröffnet am 30.01.12 23:18:00 von
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      schrieb am 28.02.12 06:58:32
      Beitrag Nr. 193 ()
      Zur Info aus hotcopper.

      posted this earlier on a different thread but a great indicator for all graphite
      follower .


      MORNING NOTES Monday February 27, 2012 Michael A. Berry, Ph.D.
      Today’s Notes:
      1. Update from the Graphite Front Lines: Chris Berry MBA
      1) Takeaways from the Graphite Express Conference 2) Our Thoughts On The Evolution Of The Graphite Market
      Last Thursday, I was pleased to deliver the keynote address at the Graphite Express conference in Vancouver. This conference was the brainchild of Mr. Robert Bick of Resourceclips.com and Mr. Dave Hodge of Zimtu Capital. Their teams deserve a great deal of credit for planning and executing a first-rate conference featuring eight emerging graphite junior mining discovery companies in Canada while providing perspective on this important material to an audience of over 400 attendees. It was a pleasure to participate and great to see so many familiar faces. Presenting and represented companies were:
      Northern Graphite (NGC: TSX), Focus Metals (FMS: TSX), Standard Graphite (SGH: TSXV), Cedar Mountain (CED: TSXV), Lomiko Metals (LMR: TSXV), Strike Graphite (SRK: TSXV), Solace Resources (SOR: TSXV) Solace will soon change its name to First Graphite.
      Zimtu Capital (ZC: TSXV)
      The first and most obvious conclusion is that the graphite sector is hot – white hot. Below is an index I have constructed of nine junior mining graphite explorers in Canada and Australia. It is equal- weighted, and demonstrates the old trading truism that “the trend is your friend.” This new trend appears to have been discovered by investors. Our Discovery Investing Scoreboard (DiS) is producing output indicating an increased interest in graphite juniors with a portfolio Crowd Score of 5.26 (out of10). Most important, this is a rank score that has increased concurrently with interest in the graphite space.
      MORNING NOTES 1 OF 6 2/27/2012
      Using Chris Berry’s equally-weighted graphite index (consisting of 9 Incubator companies) constructed from Bloomberg data, you can observe the explosive interest, and price increases in this space since mid-December 2011.
      Source: Bloomberg
      We believe that the graphite Discovery story is evolving differently and more positively than other stories of recent years (rare earths, lithium and uranium for example). This was the focus of my keynote which I summarize below and which was recorded and will be available on YouTube shortly.
      A large part of the Discovery Investing thesis involves establishing a solid long-term macro perspective which aids in determining if a given investment theme (in this case graphite) is sustainable or simply another overreaction, a flash in the pan. One thing we are always cautious about when we see huge short-term price gains in Discovery companies is whether this is due to initial speculation or there is a truly transformative process in place vis a vis Schumpeter i. Indeed this is factor three of our ten factor discovery model.
      Junior companies exploring for and developing graphite resources appear to be benefitting from both possibilities. The themes we see bringing graphite onto the investor’s radar screen include the need for cheap and reliable electricity, battery technology, the rising quality of life in the emerging world, resource nationalism, “game changing” research from R&D labs on graphene, and security of supply. We have discussed the first four themes in recent years in Morning Notes and won’t belabor them here. However, the theme of security of supply is one which I think bears repeating in the case of graphite. It is more important in the graphite sector than the first four.
      Supply and Demand Dynamics
      Graphite is a material different from most others in that its purity and size is of paramount importance to end users. These users have specific requirements for the graphite they use to manufacture end products such as refractories and lithium-ion batteries. Simply mining graphite and shipping it to a battery maker is a non-starter. This end use demands a level of technical and metallurgical expertise similar to that evident in the rare earth space. Therefore an end user of graphite such as Toyota or LG Chem cannot be reliant on a single provider of the material as this puts its entire value chain at risk.
      MORNING NOTES 2 OF 6 2/27/2012
      It is well known that China controls over 70% of global graphite production (a market of roughly 1.2 million tonnes in 2011) and is instituting a system of export quotas and a value added tax of 17% to discourage export of this “strategic” material and instead use it to build out their nascent value chains.
      With no spot or forward market for graphite, graphite explorers / producers and end users must work in tandem and off- take agreements are the rule of the day. This is a major differentiator between graphite and other extractive resources such as copper for example. Investors should bear this risk in mind when choosing where to allocate their investment capital.
      We like the fact that graphite maintains what I call “twin avenues of demand” - essentially “today’s” uses and then those of “tomorrow.” These comprise two of several powerful demand legs to the graphite “stool.”
      Today’s uses include crucibles/refractories (33% of current demand), steelmaking (26%), brake linings (7%), batteries (5%) and other uses (29%). If we assume that graphite demand grows in line with global GDP growth (World Bank estimates approximately 5%) to 2020, the graphite market will grow to 1.86 million tonnes. This assumes 5% growth in the global market but does not assume expected larger growth rates in “tomorrow’s” uses for graphite including batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, solar cells, and pebble bed nuclear reactors as well as many new applications using graphene in the 2030 to 2050 timeframe.
      In our research we have read of growth expectations for the lithium-ion battery market going forward of as much as 25% per year. Personally, I think these may be aggressive growth rate assumptions, but I am willing to accept them as feasible for now. Considering the amount of high purity, large flake graphite that is used in batteries today and compounding that amount annually by 25% to 2020 would require 327,000 tonnes of this material by 2020 – for lithium-ion batteries alone.
      Regarding battery production capacity, there are many battery manufacturers worldwide. Recently, GS Yuasa, LG Chem, and Liotech have committed to spend US $350 million, US $303 million, and US $420 million respectively on increasing battery manufacturing capacity and building out initial capacity (in the case of Liotech). Clearly the battery industry is making a bullish bet on an electrified future – one that puts graphite supply and demand squarely in its crosshairs.
      We have seen estimates that the hydrogen fuel cell market could consume all of today’s graphite supply in coming years if fuel cell technology is eventually commercialized. We think this is unlikely due to the energy density issues associated with fuel cells. Nevertheless future fuel cell demand must be considered when factoring in future graphite demand.
      Regarding small modular pebble bed nuclear reactors (PBNRs), they require a significant graphite component graphite in their construction and in the pebbles (which are actually the size of tennis balls – see the picture below) which must be replaced on an ongoing basis. China is leading the way in research and development of these reactors and plans to build 30 PBNR reactors by 2020.
      A single PBNR will consume 300 tonnes of graphite at commissioning and up to 100 tonnes per year to continue to operate.
      MORNING NOTES 3 OF 6 2/27/2012
      Source: NY Times
      There are additional many applications which use graphite such as the vanadium redox battery and solar panels. So taking into account increases in forecast demand for graphite from “tomorrow’s” uses, should they come to fruition, a likely shortage of graphite looms in the future as the world’s largest supplier, China, curtails exports to feed her own industries. This is compounded by a lack of capacity that currently exists in North America. Under these circumstances it is no wonder that the graphite Discovery space is sprouting new Junior mining entrants like the early Spring flowers here in New York.
      Given that the graphite market is a large market relative to the other metals and materials it is associated with, we are convinced that there is room in this market for more than a few junior explorers that host sizable, scalable resources of large flake graphite and those with experienced management and simple metallurgy.
      We believe that our “back-of-the-envelope” mathematics concerning increasing global demand confirms our thesis. Additionally, of the graphite juniors today, we are only aware of Northern Graphite (19,000 tons / year graphite production estimated by 2013-2014), Focus Metals (20,000 tpy by 2013-2014), Flinders Resources (13,000 tpy capacity but no explicit production plans), and Mega Graphite (projection of 27,000 tpy from the Uley mine in coming years) with definitive and near term plans to bring additional supply to the marketplace in the near term. The graphite production from these companies comprises all types, not only the highly desired large flake, high purity graphite. This fact indicates that a shortage in graphite supply looms assuming that our growth projections are accurate.
      We remain bullish on the graphite sector and so it seems does our investorate. We are as always cautious of initial explosives price appreciations and we encourage you to be cautious and perform your due diligence. We observed similar price dynamics in uranium, lithium and rare earths elements in the past decade. Nevertheless the graphite space is most interesting and Discovery Investors must take note.
      MORNING NOTES 4 OF 6 2/27/2012
      2011 Production (est.)
      Graphite
      1.2 M t
      Copper
      16.2Mt
      Manganese
      14Mt
      Rare Earth Oxides
      120,000 t
      Cobalt
      98,000 t
      Vanadium
      60,000 t
      Lithium
      34,000 t
      Silver
      23,800 t
      The size of the graphite market relative to other base, specialty, and precious/industrial metals
      Inside China, the need for graphite is clear. When China’s 12th Five Year Plan was released in 2011, it was widely considered to be the “greenest” plan in Chinese history with commitments to spend approximately US$634 billion in seven strategic industries involving energy generation and efficiency. These industries and the associated research and development will require graphite amongst other materials going forward. This paints an optimistic picture of future demand. As China grows more focused on building out her industrial, consumer, and social base, we expect to see higher metals and materials prices absent plentiful supply outside the Middle Kingdom.
      Finally, I am a believer that innovation and discovery in materials science will drive even higher demand for graphite. During my speech in Vancouver I made a special mention of graphene, an allotrope of carbon which is one atom thick and an example of materials science research that will have explosive consequences for demand in various current-day and new applications.
      Graphene has been extensively tested in labs but has not yet been adopted widely on a commercial basis. This material is 200 to 300 times stronger than steel and is also one of the lightest materials known to man. You can bet that any manufacturer or industrial conglomerate has their eyes on R&D labs producing graphene research as this wonder material could revolutionize manufacturing and associated costs.
      As examples, graphene could replace silicon in the manufacture of microchips. It conducts electricity and can bypass the challenges of making smaller and faster chips. Graphene could replace silver inks for use in solar panels as graphene ink can be sprayed on the panels to make transparent electrodes. Because graphene can conduct electricity extremely efficiently and generate less heat, the potential also exists for the material to replace copper in some applications.
      I’m not predicting any of these changes as certainties. It is early days for graphene and associated research, but this is the essence of Discovery Investing and knowledge of these developments can help formulate your longer-term investment strategy. It may well be a decade before we see widespread uses of graphene, but it is definitely coming.
      We are believers that macro themes such as resource nationalism, a growing global middle class, the need for reliable and affordable electricity, investment into intellectual property discovery, and security of supply will be the drivers of demand for materials such as graphite.
      MORNING NOTES 5 OF 6 2/27/2012
      The current supply and demand fundamentals support our thesis and we will keep a close eye on this sector going forward. Please stay tuned to our Discovery Investing Scoreboard revisions to the graphite space as this sector picks up steam.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 28.02.12 00:31:05
      Beitrag Nr. 192 ()
      Piracy Threatens West Africa Oil Expansion

      http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=115538&rss=true
      Avatar
      schrieb am 28.02.12 00:15:59
      Beitrag Nr. 191 ()
      :(:eek: Noch so ein Schocker (diesmal aus dem Öl-Bereich):



      Quote for Petrominerales Ltd. (PMG:CA)
      $ 19,05 -4,65 (-19.62%) Volume: 5,5 m 16:00 EST 27.02.2012

      Petrominerales Announces 2011 Year End Reserves and Provides Operational Update
      http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?story…





      http://www.petrominerales.com/
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 27.02.12 23:50:34
      Beitrag Nr. 190 ()
      Rare Element Resources (RES) hat auch ein vielversprechendes Goldprojekt:


      Rare Element Reports 2011 Gold Drilling Assay Results, Including the Best Results Ever - Drill hole SUN-116 with 1.21 g/t over 176.8m including 4.5 g/t Au over 24.4m- Drill hole RES11-31 with 0.77 g/t over 71.3m
      http://www.minenportal.de/artikel.php?sid=55750&lang=en#Rare…

      http://www.rareelementresources.com/s/Home.asp

      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 27.02.12 23:21:06
      Beitrag Nr. 189 ()
      CEO: Silver Wheaton’s Goal Is To Expand Silver-Streaming Business

      http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120227AS_silver.html

      Trading Spotlight

      Anzeige
      InnoCan Pharma
      0,2100EUR +5,00 %
      Jetzt in die Doppel-Chance investieren?!mehr zur Aktie »
      Avatar
      schrieb am 27.02.12 23:12:34
      Beitrag Nr. 188 ()
      Keine Ahnung, was da heute los ist, aber GUY erwischt es auch:


      Quote for Guyana Goldfields Inc. (GUY:CA)
      $ 5,87 RT -0,88 (-13.04%) Volume: 1,23 m 16:00 EST 27.02.2012

      February 24, 2012 - 7:30 AM EST
      Guyana Goldfields Completes Positive Feasibility Study for Its Aurora Gold Project in Guyana
      http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?story…





      Gibt´s da ein Muster? Klingt verrückt - wird da absichtlich gedrückt? :confused:
      Avatar
      schrieb am 27.02.12 22:42:20
      Beitrag Nr. 187 ()


      Carpathian's Drilling at its Rovina Valley Gold-Copper Project, Romania Intersects 424 m of 1.04 g/t Au and 0.19% Cu
      http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?story…

      Avatar
      schrieb am 27.02.12 21:43:17
      Beitrag Nr. 186 ()
      :eek::eek::eek:

      Quote for Batero Gold Corp. (BAT:CA)
      $ 1,30 RT -1,26 (-49.22%) Volume: 6 m 15:40 EST 27.02.2012


      Market Cap: 63,73 m (fast halbiert!!)



      Batero Gold Reports Initial NI 43-101 Resource Estimate at its Batero-Quinchia Project
      http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?story…
      Auszug:
      -- Indicated Mineral Resources comprising 248.5 million tonnes grading 0.44
      grams per tonne (g/t) gold, 1.54 g/t silver and 0.08% copper for a total
      of 3.5 million ounces gold, 12.3 million ounces silver and 438 million
      pounds of copper
      -- Inferred Mineral Resources comprising 242.4 million tonnes grading 0.33
      g/t gold, 1.8 g/t silver and 0.06% copper for a total of 2.6 million
      ounces gold, 14 million ounces silver and 320 million pounds of copper

      Ist ja noch schlimmer, als bei TRR und GCU! Unfassbar - was wurde da erwartet???



      2 Jahre:
      Avatar
      schrieb am 27.02.12 21:15:16
      Beitrag Nr. 185 ()
      Klingt ziemlich negativ für REE-Explorer - habe ich gestern (evtl. im GWG-Thread) schon irgendwo gelesen und heute stehts noch mal hier:

      China now planning to boost rare earths exports and output

      Though China has set its rare earth export quota for 2012 at the same level of 2011, a new plan envisages that China will get Yuan 2 trillion output from the new material industry by 2015, as against a registered output value of Yuan 650 billion in 2010.

      http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?o…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?o…
      Avatar
      schrieb am 27.02.12 21:04:21
      Beitrag Nr. 184 ()


      Ex-Depotwert (zumindest für Watch):

      Lithium One Closes C$9.8 Million Non-Brokered Private Placement
      http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?story…

      Kurzüberblick (Factsheet): http://www.lithium1.com/i/pdf/CorporateFactSheet.pdf

      Quote for Lithium One Inc. (LI:CA)
      $ 1,18 RT -0,07 (-5.60%) Volume: 133,6 k 14:55 EST 27.02.2012





      Market Cap.: 71,73 m
      Shares: 60,788,004 (unverw.)
      52 Wk Hi: 1,85
      52 Wk Low: 0,73
      Website: http://www.lithium1.com/s/Home.asp" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.lithium1.com/s/Home.asp
      2 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
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      Noobtraders - or "rolleg´s edge"