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    eröffnet am 03.07.02 12:13:46 von
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     Ja Nein
      Avatar
      schrieb am 03.07.02 12:13:46
      Beitrag Nr. 1 ()
      Long Position eröffnet.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 04.07.02 22:00:08
      Beitrag Nr. 2 ()
      Gold diversifizieren! Ein bißchen mehr Gold aus Südafrika. Überverkauft.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.07.02 08:16:33
      Beitrag Nr. 3 ()
      Kursziel: $29-30 Ende Juli.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 09.07.02 14:35:41
      Beitrag Nr. 4 ()
      Gold könnte in Kürze einen Boden gebildet haben. Geht und fügt eine andere Mine zu eurer Liste hinzu! Big Cap und ein guter Name in Ihrer Industrie. Scheint bis zu einem begründbaren grad korrigiert zu haben. Und Gold selbst scheint fällig für eine Rallye zu sein.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 10.07.02 10:02:47
      Beitrag Nr. 5 ()
      Warum die Goldpreise steigen werden. Muß man lesen!!!
      http://gold-stocks.com/goldstockframeset.htm
      Rechts oben anklicken! Why Gold will Rallye
      Anglogold has begun unwinding hedges.

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 12.07.02 08:02:05
      Beitrag Nr. 6 ()
      Gold breakout, über die $316,50. Dieses bedeutet einen Anstieg auf $345,- und der Dollar fällt weiterhin jeden tag. Das kurzfristige Ziel für den Dow Jones sind 8.200. Die einzige Sache, die sich positiv entwickeln wird, sind Goldminenaktien.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 14.07.02 09:11:59
      Beitrag Nr. 7 ()
      Hier ist eine knifflige Frage (Und Aufgabe)
      Warum wird Gold noch vor dem Jahresende noch einmal um mindestens 25% steigen?
      Weil es noch -23% unter seinem sentiment value ist. Das ergibt für Gold ein Kursziel von $400,- (mindestens) bis zum Jahresende.
      Aufgabe: -> Shortet J.P.Morgan Chase und sagt den Medien das sie JPM fragen sollen, warum dort ein Gerücht am Laufen ist, das sie letztes Jahr Long gegangen sind anstatt von Short bei den institutionellen accounts und short bei den retail accounts.
      -> Kauft mindestens für die nächsten 3 Monate AU, Call Optionen für den XAU und HUI.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 17.07.02 12:10:59
      Beitrag Nr. 8 ()
      Kelvin Williams, AngloGold

      "The most powerful trend in the gold market today is that the price cycle appears to have bottomed."

      "The weakening of the dollar is probably the most critical factor in the market today, although weakness in the equity markets and international tensions have done their bit to interest people in buying into gold."
      Avatar
      schrieb am 17.07.02 12:34:20
      Beitrag Nr. 9 ()
      Kelvin Williams, AngloGold

      "…certain gold producers, though not all of them, who have previously hedged future production have elected to deliver into those forward price contracts and not replace them. This has the direct effect of removing new sales of gold from the market."

      "It is important to bear in mind that the de-hedging process will not go on forever. But it does happen to be an enormously favorable circumstance for now."

      "This debate on hedging is conducted, in many ways, at a sub-rational level. Everybody says Hallelujah when a mining company has got a new mine, but hedging is criticized."

      "Between 1980 and 2001, when hedging peaked, by publicly reported figures, hedging added an incremental 3,500 tonnes to supply. New mine production added 17,100 tonnes. What capped the gold price? Are we rational or are we irrational? Why is a company that makes no money and does not hedge a better bet than one that does hedge and does make money?"
      Avatar
      schrieb am 17.07.02 12:38:44
      Beitrag Nr. 10 ()
      Kelvin Williams, AngloGold

      "AngloGold does not hold cash reserves of $800 million, $1,000 million, as though we know better than our shareholders what should be done with it. We have paid an average of 5.8% dividends for four years. If we need money for a project, we go back to the shareholders."
      Avatar
      schrieb am 17.07.02 12:41:39
      Beitrag Nr. 11 ()
      GOLD MARKETING

      Kelvin Williams, AngloGold

      "Producers who do support the promotion of gold jewelry do so because it provides a floor for the physical market."

      "Only 30% of world production is actually contributing anything to the promotion of gold jewelry. Would that the other 70% would do the same."
      Avatar
      schrieb am 18.07.02 20:12:41
      Beitrag Nr. 12 ()
      Die Woche kommt zum Ende! Das Verkaufsvolumen wird geringer! AU sitzt nun auf der Trendlinienunterstützung. Ich erwarte, das sich der Abwärtstrend bei dem breiten Markt (Dow Jones und Nasdaq) fortsetzen wird. Gerade wie es in den letzen Quartalen vor sich ging. Nur auf erhöhtem Tempo nach unten. Der Dollar regelt dieses und es sieht nach einem Fall auf 99 - 100 Yen kurzfristig aus und weiter langfristig. Dort gibt es noch eine Menge Accounting Probleme und Abschreibungen. Big Cap Techs Bücher sind der größte Mist. Die Investoren haben Angst und fühlen sich nun vollkommen verarscht. Das Feuerwerk von dieser kranken Rallye im breiten Markt ist schon halb abgebrannt.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.07.02 11:14:42
      Beitrag Nr. 13 ()
      Long Position geschlossen.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.07.02 16:21:08
      Beitrag Nr. 14 ()
      Long Position eröffnet.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.07.02 18:05:47
      Beitrag Nr. 15 ()
      Zeit zu kaufen!
      Kauft alle Goldaktien. Bull market beim Gold und überverkauft. Alle Warmduscher (schwachen Hände) haben gestern verkauft. So ist dort Geld an der Seitenlinie.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 05.08.02 08:17:49
      Beitrag Nr. 16 ()
      Bullion off scrap heap
      By YVONNE BALL
      August 05, 2002

      DISPLAYING perfect timing, gold has kicked higher just as a record 1000 delegates have converged on Kalgoorlie for today`s annual Diggers & Dealers talkfest.

      After a dismal two weeks, bullion prices rose $US3 in New York to $US309 an ounce on Friday, still well down on the year`s high of $US330 but up on last week`s low of $US301.50.

      A combination of factors have underpinned the metal`s resurgence this year, including a weaker US dollar, economic uncertainty amid accounting scandals in the US, equity market weakness as well as tension in the Middle East.

      According to analysts, gold is at a critical juncture with the next few weeks crucial to its medium term outlook.

      Representatives of some of the world`s biggest gold houses as well as the junior explorers will no doubt talk up gold`s prospects in Kalgoorlie over the next few days.

      South African mining giant AngloGold has already started, saying in its June quarter report last Wednesday that favourable market circumstances for gold remain firmly in place and "should continue to support the price of gold going forward".

      Many commentators seem to agree, with renewed US dollar weakness and soft equity markets expected to underpin support for the precious metal.

      The forum`s 36 presenters and 104 exhibitors will also be selling their own stories to investors.

      Following the industry`s rapid round of consolidation, AngloGold and other offshore giants, such as Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining, which recently took over Normandy, will attract plenty of interest, as will AurionGold and its predator, Canada`s Placer Dome.

      But despite the weaker gold prices in recent weeks, it is unlikely any of the record number of delegates will make way for the 50 hopefuls on the waiting list, particularly given that organisers have ordered in 8000 beers, 250 bottles of Moet Vintage, 2500 bottles of fine wine and 6000 kilograms of food.

      Herald Sun
      Avatar
      schrieb am 05.08.02 08:47:13
      Beitrag Nr. 17 ()
      Go for the gold!
      Source: African Business
      Publication date: 2002-07-01
      Arrival time: 2002-08-03

      MINING NOTEBOOK
      In these unsure times, everybody wants a bit of certainty - and that means good, old fashioned gold. But for how long will the high prices hold? Is it time to invest in the yellow metal or pull out?

      Rafiq Ahmed has the answers.

      In times of international uncertainties, investors turn to more tangible assets, such as real estate and precious metals. Gold possesses the distinctive characteristics of money: it serves as a medium of exchange, a store of wealth (long-- term savings) and a unit of value. Besides gold holdings, investors are lately showing preference for gold bars, gold coins, paper (metal certificates) and specialist funds (which invest exclusively in gold mining company shares), monitored by the FTSE Gold Mines Index.

      This index, which tracks gold equity markets in the Americas, Africa and Australasia, boasts market capitalisation of $50.63bn and has generated a 62% return in the year to June 2002. The gold price surged through the key resistance level of $320 a troy ounce (oz) in late May and touched $330/oz in Hong Kong in June before slipping back because of light profit-taking by investment funds.

      There have been seven short-lived rallies since February 1996 when gold hit $420oz. However, most analysts believe the market`s upside potentials now have solid fundamentals. Kelvin Williams, marketing director of AngloGold, the world`s largest gold producer, said: "Unlike other price rallies in recent years, where the gold price has tended to rise on the back of a single issue or incident, the current price improvement has been built on a number of favourable circumstances for gold."

      The positive factors underpinning gold`s new-found lustre among institutional and private investors are:

      *A marked turnaround in investor sentiment largely because of geopolitical tensions, which if sustained over the coming months, can prove crucial in reviving the industry`s fortunes. Chris Thompson, chief executive of Gold Fields, remarked: "People are feeling far less secure than previously. Gold has always been the investment that people reach for when they feel uncomfortable."

      *The substantial reductions in producer-- hedging, i.e. forward- selling on the gold derivative markets. This indicates limited downside risk for gold prices. Lately, there has been a marked change in producers` hedging strategies. Jonathan Best, AngloGold`s financial director explained: "We`ve continued to manage our hedge book aggressively and we are taking out the weaker positions in the hedge book right now so that going forward, we don`t have a long period when we will be receiving lower prices or incurring an opportunity loss." AngloGold has cut its hedging positions by about 105.74t during the past six months.

      Heavy hedge-book loses?

      According to Gold Fields` findings, hedge-book financial losses to producers could be heavy over the next few years if prices surge to between $330/oz and $345/oz. Macquarie Bank (Australia) estimates that total hedge-book of gold miners world-wide may drop by 400t in 2002.

      Therefore, the supply of bullion in the markets will become tighter because of declining producer-hedging and robust investment demand should buoy the price of gold.

      *Global mine production is expected to decline this year or next thanks to greater consolidation and rationalisation within the industry during the past two years.

      *The gold rally was also helped by the US dollar`s weakness against a number of other major currencies. A softer greenback versus the euro and the yen, in fact, reduces gold prices in many other currencies, thereby making the precious metal more attractive to buyers in Asia-Pacific and Europe. The greenback and gold have a counter-cyclical relationship. If the dollar surges, bullion prices fall and vice versa.

      *Lower US money market rates are discouraging speculative short- selling of gold by international hedge funds. In times of rising US interest rates, it`s profitable for hedge funds to borrow gold from the bullion banks, sell it and place the money in high-yielding cash- deposits and major OECD-country Treasury securities.

      *The lacklustre performances of stock markets in America and Western Europe have also had an impact on the price of gold. This in turn, reflects doubts about the health of global economic recovery and hence revival in corporate earnings. During the past year, gold investments have outperformed bonds and equities. The World Gold Council writes: "People buy gold when there is a stock market crash or things are unstable because gold tends to hold its value. Cash is eroded by inflation, but gold bullion tends to rise in value. It is usually seen as a hedge against inflation."

      Controlled bullion sales

      The September 1999 Washington Accord commits 20 of the world`s leading central banks and international financial institutions (the Bank for International Settlements and the IMF together control 85% of the globe`s bullion reserves), to hold gold as a reserve asset and to limit gold sales to 4001 per annum until September 2004.

      The signatories have also agreed not to increase their gold- leasing programmes and expand the use of gold futures and options during this period. The central banks are complying with the accord, thus eliminating the market`s fear of an uncontrolled heavy official selling. Gold-producing countries in Africa and South America would of course welcome an extension of the Central Banks` Gold Agreement after 2004.

      Central banks world-wide hold more than 33,000t as part of their foreign currency reserves, equivalent to 13 years of current mine production. The five-main official holders of gold reserves are the US Federal Reserves Board (8,148t); Germany`s Bundesbank (3,4560; Banque de France (3,025t); Banca d`Italia (2,45 10 and the Swiss National Bank (2,151t).

      Supply-deficit

      The demand for gold has continued to surpass the supply of newly- mined gold for many years. According to the latest report, "Gold Survey 2002," compiled by Londonbased Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), world-wide mine production in 2001 totalled 2,604t, against aggregate gold usages in jewellery, fabricated products and investments of 3,483t. The jewellery sector accounts for 75% - 80% of gold offtake, especially in Asia and the Middle East.

      Despite sustained falls in gold output, South Africa still remains the world`s largest producer (394t) last year. GFMS report shows that 80% of SA production comes from mines owned by AngloGold, Gold Fields and Harmony. Other major producers are America, Australia, Indonesia - which owns the world`s biggest gold-mine, Grasberg (which produced 108t) - China, Russia and Canada.

      Last year`s average spot price was $271/oz while total production costs averaged $228/oz. Future trends

      Some prime investment banks like UBS Warburg, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Barclays Capital are anticipating gold to average above $300/oz this year and between $320/oz-$340/oz in 2003. GFMS provides more cautious forecasts of between $285/oz and $315/oz over the next year. The yellow metal`s 10-year moving average is $331 /oz.

      But stronger prices of $350/oz-$380/oz, though unlikely in the near-term, would trigger profit-taking and renewed producer-- hedging, thus weighing on the markets. Also, more marginal mines in South Africa and elsewhere will be brought back into production and increasing supplies should ultimately lead to lower prices.

      It`s important to note that the current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions in the US and Europe are very different from the great bull-market of 1980/81, when gold skyrocketed to $800/ oz, following the invasion of Afghanistan by the Former Soviet Union and the start of Iran-Iraq war.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.08.02 09:45:18
      Beitrag Nr. 18 ()
      This is the most under-reported element of gold’s new bull market.

      For those who have gone underneath the surface of the typical CNBC "coverage" on gold, this looming supply deficit is major news. Though Barry Cooper’s numbers could end up being a bit too pessimistic in this regard, many industry insiders generally agree that levels of gold available to the market will not be increasing due to mine output. The latest producer to sound the alarm bell that the industry was running out of gold faster than it could replace it was world number two miner (behind Newmont Mining) AngloGold. "Over the next 10 to 15 years, new mine supply is (more) likely to be neutral or negative than it is to increase as it did in the past 15 years," that company’s C.E.O. Bobby Godsell said on the sidelines of a recent mining conference in Australia. This is in an environment where, though it has generally softened some in recent months, jewelry demand alone consumes 3,000 metric tons per year.

      Barring any major new additions to market supply from the central banks (which is possible even before the Washington Agreement expires in 2004, as I’ll discuss in a bit) gold’s price will enjoy some strong support due to all this.

      Right now, gold’s move--impressive though it has been--has not been sufficient (particularly in its duration) to change this equation very much. It can often take several years for new mines to come on line and produce after they are discovered. Even reserves in the ground which are now becoming economical to mine with the higher gold price will not immediately make a dent in this supply deficit. After all, it’s not as though a company can simply "flip a switch" and start milling ore they’ve been sitting on. Preparation even needs to be done in these cases. Properties may need to be newly permitted. The same is true with mills. A lot of preliminary work needs to be undertaken.

      And--none will be until the company in question is sufficiently convinced that gold will stabilize at prices sufficiently high to be worth all the trouble of increasing production.

      Perhaps helping the positive supply/demand fundamentals for gold down the road is an industry-wide effort to sell more of its product. The World Gold Council was charged over a year ago with developing a massive new public relations campaign designed--much as De Beers has done with the diamond market--to increase consumption. Additionally, work continues on possible new industrial uses for gold, most notably based on gold’s catalytic properties, which could one of these days make cheaper gold an alternative to platinum in catalytic converters, and in other applications.

      So, again--as a commodity--gold’s fundamentals are the best they have been in many a year. On the strength of this factor alone (and the related one I discuss next) gold should easily be able to consolidate its gains in the weeks and months ahead, and enjoy a new trading range around current levels. And, this is even if all the other worries which have more recently added to the yellow metal’s move subside.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.08.02 09:57:35
      Beitrag Nr. 19 ()
      THE INDUSTRY ABANDONS "HEDGING"

      You know from my past commentaries and reporting on gold that the practice of central banks’ selling or leasing gold to various parties--who, in the case of leased gold, then sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price later--was the chief factor in gold’s bear market declines. A close second, however, was the somewhat similar practice on the part of major gold producers to sell gold still in the ground, in order to lock in a certain price. Generally, the practice known as "hedging"--which took a few different forms, some of which were highly speculative--served to short-circuit any rallies in the gold price. It seemed that any time gold would get some traction, one or more big producers would "forward sell" large amounts of gold. In effect, this was their own vote of "no confidence" in gold’s ability to move higher, and their way of trying to keep cash flow and earnings afloat. In one sense, these companies could hardly be blamed for trying to do the best for their shareholders, given gold’s generally bearish environment for so long. Many, however, considered the hedgers--chief among them Barrick Gold and the above-mentioned Anglo Gold--as pariahs.

      A "shot across the bow" for these larger concerns and others came in the spike in late 1999. To a certain extent--and without confusing you unduly in explaining it--the practice of hedging on the part of miners acts much the same way as does a short sale. For as long as the gold price stays at or below the price at which future production was sold, all is well. However, if the current, spot price rises much above that same level, the value of having made those hedges is diminished. Further, in the cases where miners themselves have actually borrowed gold outright (or entered into some kind of derivative contract) they can be faced with margin calls, negative values in their "hedge books," or both.

      This happened during the 1999 spike to two companies. Ashanti Goldfields of Ghana racked up enormous paper losses on its derivative portfolio (i.e.--hedge book) and for a while teetered on the brink of bankruptcy. Its banking counterparts who had "dibs" on these hedges had the ability to demand substantial cash payments from Ashanti, in order to cover the amounts by which the hedges were now in the red. At the eleventh hour--and assisted by the ultimately successful efforts to rein in gold’s advance--Ashanti managed to barely stay in business. Similarly, Canadian producer Cambior got into trouble with its hedge book.

      Though these were the two most publicized examples, you’d better believe that hearts were suddenly pounding fast in other gold mining board rooms. All of a sudden, companies deemed by many (including themselves) as geniuses were being looked at with a jaundiced eye. Maybe it wouldn’t be good after all for some companies if gold did finally go up--and all of a sudden, those few investors interested at the time in gold demanded some answers as to how individual companies would fare if gold finally did turn around.

      In the immediate aftermath of this near-disaster, a couple companies came out and announced they were moving away from the practice of hedging. Early on, these announcements--led initially by Placer Dome and Gold Fields--were motivated as much by the companies’ desires to allay fears over their solvency as by any real confidence that gold’s bear market was drawing to a close. Still, there did not seem to be an industry-wide consensus--or motivation--for a practically wholesale abandonment of the practice of hedging.

      That changed, however, with the closing in January of Newmont Mining’s acquisition of Canadian-based Franco Nevada, and the Australian miner Normandy. As you’ll remember, I wrote extensively on the months-long struggle between Newmont and Anglo Gold for Normandy in particular; and, far from being your typical battle over an appealing target, this turned into a battle between hedgers (Anglo) and non-hedgers (Newmont.) The non-hedgers won; and both leading up to its acquisition and since, Newmont--now the world’s largest producer--has worn its status on its sleeve.

      A number of long-time gold market bulls pointed to Newmont’s victory as the most significant gold market event in decades. And so it was. For, one by one, the most notable hedgers among gold producers have come out and embraced the old-time religion of being bullish for and an advocate of their own product. Before they’d hardly had time to lick their wounds and swallow some pride after losing the battle for Normandy, Anglo Gold came out and said that it would rather switch than fight. In a series of announcements, the big South African miner has said it is "aggressively" unwinding its hedge book.

      In a February 5 interview with the Financial Times, Anglo’s Executive Director for Marketing Kelvin Williams indicated that his company would allow its hedge book to "erode" during 2002, while watching for "upside opportunities."

      "We think there is a solid floor under the physical gold market," he explained. "And there is no longer a constituency of speculators eager to play the market from the short side. . ."

      As gold’s price has continued to rise this Spring, Anglo has occasionally repeated its earlier announcements that it was unwinding its hedges, so as to take better advantage of the rising cash price. Especially conspicuous in recent weeks, though, has been the management of Barrick Gold, the so-called "king" of the hedgers. That company has--similarly to Anglo--been going out of its way at times to assure the market and its own investors that, (1) it, too, is unwinding its hedge book and now selling at least some production into the spot market for the first time in many years, and (2) it has no intention of short-circuiting the rise in gold’s price by adding new hedges.

      Except in the most learned gold bug circles and among those who have taken the time to analyze the markets, this story has not received nearly sufficient attention. Coupled with the declining mine supply, the virtual wholesale abandonment of hedging has written the epitaph to the long, nasty bear market endured by gold for so long.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 12.08.02 21:59:56
      Beitrag Nr. 20 ()
      AngloGold also features after what Castle says was a good June quarter. "AngloGold`s June quarter showed that they are focussing on what they should and their operations are looking stronger," says Castle.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 13.08.02 07:44:26
      Beitrag Nr. 21 ()
      >Dehedging supports gold price

      By: Peter Gonnella


      Posted: 2002/08/12 Mon 20:00 ZE8 | © Miningweb 1997-2002


      PERTH – Hedging has returned to the spotlight in the wake of the June quarter reporting season, expectations of a further reduction in US interest rates and, according to a leading global gold analyst, widespread rumours last week attributing the rise in gold prices to a large producer buyback.
      One of the fundamental differences in the gold market recovery this year compared with the most recent shortlived rallies has been producer dehedging. "Producer dehedging, which we define as reductions in producer hedge books (largely due to delivery into existing positions without renewal, as distinct from an actual buyback), has of course been one of the major changes in the gold market this year," said Macquarie Bank analyst Kamal Naqvi. He believed the strategic running down of hedge books was inspired by: lower interest rates lessening the attractiveness of forward selling; the downward trend in gold prices appearing to be over; and shareholders and market sentiment pressuring gold producers to reduce and simplify hedge books, partly due to a positive outlook for gold prices, but also because of Enron-type concerns about transparency and predictability of earnings related to derivatives.

      In the June quarter AngloGold chopped its hedge book by a thumping 2.4 million ounces (or 73 tonnes) down to a committed 10.5Moz, following up the sizeable reduction in the hedge book of 1.7Moz in the previous quarter (for a half year total of 4.1Moz).

      "This process has the effect of both delivering new production off the spot market and adding a certain amount of producer buying to investor demand," the company said. "This has increased the positive impact on the price of incremental investor buying."

      AngloGold`s latest hedge book equated to about 17 per cent of its total reserves and only 3 per cent of resources. Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corp [NYSE:ABX] reduced its hedge commitments by 2.45Moz during the June quarter (total of 2.65Moz for the half) to 17.9Moz or 22 per cent of reserves and just under 14 per cent of resources. Barrick has halved intended delivery into contracts from 100 to 50 per cent of production with the balance to be sold at prevailing spot prices.

      According to Macquarie data, the combined global gold hedge position had fallen by more than 9.0Moz in the first half of the calendar year. AngloGold, Barrick and others stated they would continue to manage their hedge programs with a view to increasing their leverage to the spot price.

      Though AngloGold and Barrick planned to take their feet off the pedal in terms of accelerated dehedging in the second half of the year as they had reached more comfortable hedging levels, which pointed to a possible slowdown in dehedging. "Hence, concern that we have already seen the peak in terms of hedge book reductions may well be justified," said Naqvi. But Newmont Mining [NYSE,ASX:NEM] might help take up the slack, signalling it would pick up the pace of unwinding the large complex book inherited from Normandy Mining. Chairman Pierre Lassonde said last week Newmont was shooting for a gold hedge delivery or close-out target of around 1Moz for the remainder of this year and an additional 1.8Moz in 2003.

      Also buttressing gold was the strong indication the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again. "Another cut … may well assist further reductions in gold producer hedge books," Naqvi said, suggesting lower interest rates would probably cause gold contangos to fall even lower and therefore take the premium out of forward selling. "In fact, if forecasts of a 50-75 basis cut in US interest rates occur, we could well see the lowest sustained contango levels ever."

      The London-based analyst said this was where the potential for stepped up producer buybacks came into play. "By flattening the forward curve, lower interest rates normally reduce the market-to-market loss that can be crystallised during a buyback," he said. "Hence, the cost of buybacks tend to fall in line with interest rates."

      There was a flipside to the contango argument. "Falling interest rates may encourage any project-related hedging to occur sooner rather than later or may discourage hedge book reductions from those gold producers who may want to sell forward in the coming months," Naqvi explained. "After all, with falling contangos, it will be increasingly difficult to replace hedge positions at attractive levels unless spot prices rally."

      However, on the whole, he felt further cuts in interest rates would subdue the incentive to enter into large-scale forward selling contracts in the near term.

      "We expect gold to continue to be largely dictated by movements in other markets – namely, broad US equity markets, the US dollar and (largely US) gold equities," Naqvi said, but added producer dehedging could become a key indicator in the next few weeks.

      Spot gold held its gains from Friday and had moved US$5/oz higher today (Monday) to US$319/oz at the time of writing. Gold stocks in Australia generally benefited from the upbeat sentiment. On the ASX, AngloGold ended the day on A$8.30 (up A$0.10), AurionGold [ASX:AOR] also finished in positive territory at A$3.27 (up A$0.09), as did Newcrest Mining [ASX:NCM] on A$6.54 (up A$0.03), Lihir Gold [ASX:LHG] A$1.21 (up A$0.06), Newmont A$4.90 (up A$0.33); Durban Roodepoort Deep [ASX:DRD] A$5.90 (up A$0.30), Placer Dome [ASX:PDG] A$17.00 (up A$0.50) and Croesus Mining [ASX:CRS] A$0.62 (up A$0.04).
      Avatar
      schrieb am 19.08.02 00:46:16
      Beitrag Nr. 22 ()
      Date : August 16, 2002

      Evidence That Major Culture Shock Is Already Underway At World Gold Council.


      http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Aug-2…
      Avatar
      schrieb am 19.08.02 18:08:47
      Beitrag Nr. 23 ()
      Long Position geschlossen.

      peter.wedemeier1
      Avatar
      schrieb am 19.08.02 19:41:46
      Beitrag Nr. 24 ()
      ???????????
      Avatar
      schrieb am 19.08.02 19:54:07
      Beitrag Nr. 25 ()
      Das macht mir jetzt wirklich wieder Mut ! Ein hervorragendes Zeichen ! Endlich !
      Insiderin007


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