Noranda vor Übernahme! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[valueinvestor]

Ich habe sie schon seit letzten Herbst, jetzt wird die Sache aber richtig spannend!

Aus Kanada folgender Artikel, Übernahmepreise leider nur in CAD$

Noranda officially on block
Won`t confirm CVRD bid: Brazilian firm`s offer would create $29.6B global mining giant

June 17, 2004


Noranda Inc., one of Canada`s largest and best known mining companies, has put itself in play following reports Brazilian mining giant CVRD is preparing a $7.1-billion bid.

Noranda said yesterday it has named a special board committee to consider any bids. CIBC World Markets has been hired as the company`s financial advisor for the purpose of considering any offers.

The Noranda announcement follows a report in a Brazilian newspaper that said Comphania Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), the world`s largest iron ore miner, has been holding talks with Noranda leading toward a formal bid. The paper said talks could result in a bid being presented to Noranda`s board by June 22.

A spokeswoman for CVRD in Brazil had no comment on the report.

News of a potential CVRD bid caused Noranda`s stock to rise more than 9%. Noranda refused comment on the Brazilian report.

But the company did issue a statement yesterday confirming it has received "expressions of interest" from possible buyers. Noranda said it has no specific timetable for considering bids.

Brascan Corp., which owns 42% of Noranda`s stock, has suggested for at least two years that it would eventually like to exit the mining business. Brascan, one of Canada`s oldest conglomerates, is focusing on investments in power generation, financial services and real estate.

Bruce Flatt, chief executive of Brascan, said the current metals boom means the time is ripe for Noranda to consider a sale.

"Increased Chinese demand for commodities, lack of supply additions and ongoing consolidation in the base metals industry provide an opportune environment to review our options in order to maximize value for Brascan and all Noranda shareholders," Mr. Flatt said.

Noranda closed yesterday on the Toronto Stock Exchange at $24.06, up $2.07. That values Brascan`s stake in Noranda at just under $3-billion.

A takeover of Noranda would shake up the Canadian mining business. Noranda owns 60% of Falconbridge Ltd., which is the world`s third-largest nickel producer after Toronto-based Inco Ltd. and Moscow-based OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel.

"If CVRD does, in fact, take over Noranda, you have to assume that Falconbridge is next, and then we`ve lost a huge chunk of the Canadian mining industry. Gone," said Greg Barnes, base metals mining analyst with Canaccord Capital Corp.

Mr. Barnes noted that CVRD`s interest in Noranda has been well known. Brascan management recently hinted that CVRD could be a potential purchaser.

CVRD, meanwhile, is known to be looking for mining acquisitions that would complement the company`s new US$413-million copper and nickel mine at Sossego in the Brazilian Amazon rain forest.

In addition to its Falconbridge operations at Sudbury, Noranda has stakes in several South American properties, such as the Antamina base metals mine in Peru and the Lomas Bayas project in Chile.

Based on 2003 results, a combined CVRD and Noranda would have a market capitalization of almost $30-billion and annual sales of just under $15-billion.

Victor Lazarovici, mining analyst with BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., said expects several major players in the mining world to take a look at Noranda, including Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd., Switzerland-based Xstrata PLC, and London-based AngloAmerican PLC. London-based Rio Tinto PLC was thought to be a contender, but has been quashing suggestions that it will bid.

Rumours about Noranda`s fate have also picked up steam, particularly since analysts figure there is opportunity for several base metal producers to tie the knot.

"Somebody asked me if a Noranda deal is going to accelarate consolidation in the industry. This doesn`t create a stampede of aquisitions. This is just the next one in line," Mr. Lazarovici said.

Valor Economico, a Brazilian business newspaper, yesterday reported that CVRD is preparing a bid to at least buy Brascan`s stake in Noranda.

The story quoted two unnamed sources, "familiar with the situation," who said CVRD was willing to pay $2.75-billion for Brascan`s 42% stake.

Based on that report, the CVRD offer would value Noranda at less than $23 a share. The Brazilian newspaper said Brascan is looking for something closer to $4.1-billion, which would work out to about $34 a share.

Analysts note that even if Noranda is now officially for sale, Brascan will not part with its investment at a fire sale price.

"There`s a reasonable probability nothing will happen," Mr. Lazarovici said.

He said that based on recent North American deals, a successful bid would need to be priced at least 10% greater than his estimated net asset value on the company, which is currently $28 a share.

Strong metal prices have Noranda is throwing off a lot of cash, so Brascan may not be in a rush to sell Noranda if can`t get the price it`s looking for, Mr. Lazarovici added.

MORE SUITORS?:

Anglo American PLC, London

Mining and natural resources; gold, diamonds, coal, copper, nickel, zinc, ferrous metals, base metals, industrial minerals, forest products. Operations in Africa, Europe, Australia, South and North America.

Market cap: $41.4-billion

Xstrata PLC, Zug, Switzerland

Diversified mining; copper, coking coal, thermal coal, ferrochrome, vanadium, zinc, gold, lead, silver. Operations in Australia, South Africa, Germany, Argentina, U.K.

Market cap: $11.2-billion

BHP Billiton PLC, London

Resources exploration and production; aluminum, energy coal and metallurgical coal, copper, ferro-alloys, iron ore and titanium; oil, gas, liquefied natural gas, nickel, diamonds and silver. More than 100 operations in 20 countries.

Market cap: $28-billion

Rio Tinto PLC, London

Mining interests in aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feestrock, diamonds, talc, zircon. Operations in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, U.S., South America, Europe, Indonesia.

Market cap: $34-billion

[valueinvestor]

Comphania Vale do Rio Doce kommt mit seinem Gebot wohl nicht zum Zuge. gerüchte besagen, ein chinesisches Unternehmen hätte 11% mehr geboten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, daß das gerücht stimmt liegt über 50%, denn der Kurs stieg um 6% und toppte damit sein altes 52 Wochen-Hoch.
Ich weiß, Noranda ist schrecklich, aber welche Mine liegt derzeit auf 52 Wochen-Hoch?

[Tschonko]

Ja, was soll man da tun? Ich habe die auch seit Mitte Oktober. Zur Auswahl standen damals Phelps Dogde, BHP Billiton und Anglo American.

Das, was die Brasilianer bieten, ist kursmäßig schon erreicht. Sie wollen außerdem nur den Anteil (42%) der kanad. Investmentfirma. Das Angebot der Chinesen soll ca. 20$ betragen (siehe unten).

"For investors interested in broad sentiment and momentum plays, this week`s buys feature two metals companies. Toronto-based Noranda (nyse: NRD - news - people ) mines for copper, zinc, aluminum and nickel. In the last couple of weeks, the M100 increased their position in the stock by 500%, sending it into the top 2% of their portfolios. In early April, the stock broke through $18, but then slipped 20%. Now it`s back over $18. Most of the recent boost comes from rumors that China Minmetals, among other international companies, might make a $20-per-share bid for the company." (aus Forbes.com)

Also verkaufen? Viel scheint ja nicht mehr drinnen zu sein? Ich tendiere eher dahin, bin aber sehr unsicher.

Grüße tschonko

[valueinvestor]

Über die Spekufrist sollte man das Ding schon schaukeln können, oder?