Barrick Gold -- KURSEXPLOSION ERWARTET !!! (Seite 1971)

[Durando]

Zitat von jameslabrie: wo sind eure mittelfr.ziele?34E?

37-38€

[Nissie]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.542.266 von Nissie am 28.08.12 15:48:00

wie gewonnen, so zerronnen.

[Nissie]

die geht in NY ab wie Schmitz Katz

[Keilfleckbarbe]

guckst du hier




Keilfleckbarbe




schrieb am 07.08.12 23:06:59


Beitrag Nr.1769


(43.468.073)











Antwort

Zitat


Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.468.027 von DJHLS am 07.08.12 22:54:15ja, billiger ging es leider nicht, dachte man könnte noch billiger rein. Jedenfalls bin ich nahe am 52 Wochentief eingestiegen und nicht in astronomischen Höhen, wie ...

Nicht desto trotz bin ich hier auch ganz schnell wieder weg, wenn es nichts mehr für mich zu gewinnen gibt. Ich nehme mir nur den schnellen Gewinn der Langfristanleger. Habe kein Problem damit. Ich muss nicht warten auf 50 +x

[schnitzale]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.468.079 von Keilfleckbarbe am 07.08.12 23:08:14

glaubst du noch immer, dass es noch billiger wird ...

Eigentlich nur mehr eine Frage der Zeit, bis sich der starke Goldpreis wieder auf Kurs durchschlägt ... wenn sie mit den Milliarden, die sie verdienen was vernünftiges machen - mir würde da ein Aktienrückkauf recht gut gefallen - sollte die aktuelle Schwäche bald wieder vorbei sein.

[jameslabrie]

nochmals nachgelegt prozyklisch und olympus pacific mineralas

[jameslabrie]

wo sind eure mittelfr.ziele?34E?

[renrev]

By David Gould - August 24, 2012| Tickers: ABX, GG, KGC, NEM| 0 Comments








David is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.


Despite poor economic progress and the Fed's reiteration of low interest rates, gold producers have fallen over both near and intermediate-periods. Over the last six months, Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) has lost 22.1% of its value versus 25.3% and 26.7% for Barrick (NYSE: ABX) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG). While several contributors on Seeking Alpha have speculated about a double dip, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his recent testimony, explained that he does not expect such an adverse event. If the economy starts improving (as it has, albeit slowly) and large gold producers have failed to outperform in the current macro climate, investors naturally want to know where and why they should become basic material shareholders.
In my view, investors need to broadly diversify across the sector, among others, and buy disproportionately large stakes in leading picks. Banking on one individual stock is risky, so investors need to be mindful of the broader industry fundamentals and its secular trend. And while many investors may leave gold once its appeal as a "hedge" dissipates, there are some producers that are undervalued from a volumes perspective. Put differently, I recommend investing based on operations and less on the price of the precious metal.

Barrick Gold
I am particularly optimistic about Barrick's potential against Newmont and Goldcorp. The firm trades at a respective 7.5x and 6.1x past and forward earnings with a dividend yield of 2.4%. By contrast, Newmont and Goldcorp trade at a respective 8.8x and 11.3x forward earnings. Newmont offers the highest dividend yield at 3.2%; but it will become less meaningful if the qualified dividend tax rate is overturned, resulting in dividend tax rates as high as 40%. The discount to competitors on a multiples basis is unreasonable given Barrick's moat as the largest miner and bargaining power. When miners are searching for resources, they often need to orchestrate takeover activity - those with the greatest bargaining power stand the most to gain in terms of value creation (more on this later).

Much of the firm's potential comes from the Pueblo Viejo mine located on the central part of the Dominican Republic. The gold producer owns 60% of the project while Goldcorp owns the other 40%. Although some argue that political corruption will act as a headwind, I actually anticipate it being a tailwind in favor of corporate interests. The Dominican Republic is trying to create more jobs for it citizens, and the nation is aware that it can't act hostile towards operating businesses in conjunction with its economic goal. Gold processing will begin in 2H12 and anticipated to generate 1M oz of gold over the next 18 months. Barrick's committed contribution to construction was $2.3B for this project. Starting in 2012 with a ramp up to full production in 2013, Pueblo Viejo has been guided to contribute an annual average of ~625-675K oz of gold at total cash costs of $300-$350 per oz for the first full 5 years.
In terms of takeover activity, the company has been reportedly in talks about buying out Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC). With proven and probable reserves of 62.5M ounces at a valuation of 0.7x book value, Kinross provides accretive value. Barrick, again, has attractive bargaining power to strike a favorable deal.

Goldcorp
While Goldcorp is a 40% investor in the Pueblo Viejo, management recently lowered production guidance for 2012. Since I advise not betting on the price of gold, this makes me concerned about operational stability. With that said, the stock has fallen 12.8% in value since the announcement - an "overblown" reaction to the negative announcement. Investors who are interested in making a short-term trade are encouraged to buy Goldcorp off of the market correction and back more stable producers, like Barrick, in the long-term.

Second quarter production was decent with production sequentially rising from 530K oz in the 1Q to 578.6K in 2Q. One area that was disappointing - and continues to be disappointing - is Red Lake. Seismic activity has been detected, so the company is slowing the pace of rock de-stressing for development. Grade variability has been worse than expected and production guidance has fallen by 20-30%.

Yet another area that has been disappointing is Penasquito. Inadequate water supply has cut off throughput. While weather is always uncontrollable and permits are available for additional wells, time delays impact capital markets. Guidance in the region has fallen by 8-13%.

[renrev]

Barrick: The Biggest Winner In Gold
August 21, 2012 | 2 commentsby: IncomeHunter | about: ABX, includes: AU, GG, KGC, NEM

When Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) named Jamie Sokalsky as the new Chief Executive Officer last June, the company took a significant step towards the next chapter in its history. The major mining companies, including Barrick, Kinross Gold (KGC), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Newmont Mining (NEM) and Goldcorp (GG), have been on the "grow gold production at all costs" path for an extended period. With the price of gold skyrocketing, this approach could be justified to investors. Lately, however, as the price of gold has remained range-bound between $1,550 and $1,650, investors have become dissatisfied with the approach. This was very clearly underlined in Barrick's most recent earnings release - detailed below - in which costs played a significant role in a significant earnings miss. As Barrick's new CEO looks to steady the proverbial ship and changes the focus to discipline and potential asset sales, Barrick is the best name to own at current levels.
A New Era of Discipline

Where late July saw rumors that Barrick was considering an acquisition of Kinross Gold, since the early-August earnings miss, these rumors have all but disappeared. Instead, Mr. Sokalsky has stepped to the forefront of his company's public image and delivered his message in a clear and concise way: "Going forward, returns will drive production. Production will not drive returns." During the price run-up of gold, many of the majors were in full-blown production growth mode, throwing money at projects that were believed to be sources of new ounces.

The good news for Barrick in this department is that as of 2011, the company is the world's largest miner of gold as measured by production. What this means is that the company is able to pull back the reins significantly without the same constraints as smaller rivals. Barrick has built a sizable lead and will now be able to enjoy the fruits of that labor by offering investors a more disciplined approach moving forward. This should not only pay handsome rewards to the company, it gives investors the opportunity to participate in a more measured approach without the concern of insufficient production.

Another dramatic step that offers evidence that the company is entering into a new era is the recent announcement that it has begun talks to divest certain assets. It is of particular importance to be precise in what has and has not happened to date because the rumor mill has begun to churn and many would-be analysts have completely 'bastardized' the story. Recently, Mr. Sokolsky and Barrick announced that the company had entered into early discussions to sell its stake in African Barrick plc to China National Gold Group Corp. In a prime example of how the internet knows everything and nothing simultaneously, the story has been morphed into a rumor that either the China Gold Group, or perhaps the Chinese government, is considering the entire company as an acquisition target. This is not the case in any way, and yet after one report misrepresents the facts, if you'll pardon another cliché, it's off to the races.

Returning to the facts, the news is of sweeping importance for investors because, in addition to serving as a symbol of a new chapter, the addition of significant asset sales should have a profoundly positive impact on the company's bottom line. This asset in particular makes a nice divestiture for Barrick when one considers that in 2011 the company produced 7.7 million ounces of gold with an average cost of $460 per ounce. The production contribution from African Barrick was 509 thousand ounces that came at a cost of $692 per ounce. As is discussed below, costs have been a real problem for the company.

An Earnings Miss

When the company announced that it had significantly underperformed analysts' expectations in its most recent earnings report, cost was a significant factor. The report specifically pointed to cost overruns at Barrick's Pascua-Lama mine in South America. The expected total cost of the mine was increased to $8 billion from the initially estimated $1.5 billion. Coupled with other cost concerns, the company immediately came under fire.

Despite the explosion in costs, the metrics for Barrick are still extremely appealing and make a strong case that it is the strongest company in the sector. The company is currently trading at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.8 relative to 101.6 for Newmont and 1010 for AngloGold; Kinross failed to earn a profit for the reporting period. Even with the Barrick's newly-announced philosophy of restraint, the company has excellent growth expectations as reflected by the price-to-earnings over growth (PEG) ratio. Barrick has a PEG of 0.11 relative to 0.13 for AngloGold, 0.16 for Newmont and 1.17 for Kinross. If the company is able to become more focused while still achieving this type of growth-adjusted valuation, it should prove very favorable for shareholders.

Another strong positive for the company is the operating margin it was able to achieve in spite of the cost overruns. The company boasts an operating margin of 42% relative to 38% for Newmont, 32% for AngloGold and 31% for Kinross. With this type of margin in place, one is forced to wonder if the analyst expectations that the company missed were 'priced-for-perfection'. In any event, the company looks extremely solid at current levels.

Overall, while there are widely conflicting views over where gold will go for the rest of the year, a prudent investor will maintain exposure to the sector. For this purpose, Barrick is the strongest candidate. With the combination of strong metrics and a new management direction, the company shows great promise as part of one's portfolio.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

[DJHLS]

Da deutet sich etwas Großes an: http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/abx

3:31 PM Barrick Gold (ABX +1.3%) is working with UBS to explore a sale of its 74% stake in African Barrick, Tanzania's largest gold producer, FT reports, in a move that could trigger an offer for the whole company. China's Zijin Mining may be interested; the report also mentions Randgold (GOLD) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU) as potential suitors