Royal Dutch Shell - Back to the Future (Seite 100)

[overdraft]

In der Rechnung verdoppelt sich die Dividende zu heutigen Werten nahezu und der Kurs halbiert sich nahezu. Das wäre jetzt nicht das Szenario, das für mich die größte Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit hat.

[Zeitgenosse22]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.356.990 von E.S.T. am 14.04.22 09:54:58

Never sell Shell ??

Hallo „E.S.T“ – etwas verspätet möchte ich noch auf Ihren Beitrag antworten – der ja im Prinzip den bekannten Spruch „never sell Shell“ enthält.
Hierzu eine kleine (überschaubare) Rechnung:

Folgende Annahmen:
> Kauf von 1.000 Shell-Aktien zu 10 Euro.
> Hohe Dividende von 2019: 0,47 US-Dollar pro Quartal (ergibt ca. 1,58 Euro Dividende pro Aktie pro Jahr*).
> Verkauf der Aktie bei 28,00 Euro.
Damit hätte man einen Gewinn nach Steuer von ca. 13.000 Euro.

Verkauft man die Aktie bei 28 Euro nicht und diese fällt nun wieder auf 15,00 Euro (was in Anbetracht des stark zyklischen Geschäftes von Shell durchaus möglich erscheint/ist) ergibt sich nun ein Depotstand von 3.600 Euro n. Steuer.
D. h.: statt der 13.000 Euro habe ich nun nur noch 3.600 Euro im Depot als „Gewinn“ und einen „Verlust“ von fast 10.000 Euro (genau: 9.400 Euro).
Fragestellung: würde die Aktie nun im Bereich von 15 Euro verharren, wie viele Jahre bräuchte es, um mit der (hohen) Dividende den Verlust von 9.400 Euro auszugleichen?
Antwort: ca. 8 Jahre.

Ich stelle mir momentan die Frage, ob eine so lange Wartezeit sich auszahlt. Wie sehen Sie das?

Merci vorab für eine mögliche Rückmeldung.

*) Anmerkung: die Rechnung habe ich schon vor ein paar Monaten angestellt. Damals war der Doliar-Euro-Kurs noch ca. 0,83, nun ca. 0,93 - aber: es geht ja hier ums Prinzip!

[Oginvest]

UK government approves Shell North Sea gas project

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Britain's regulator on Wednesday approved Shell's (SHEL.L) revised plan to develop a North Sea natural gas field as the government seeks to boost domestic energy output following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In a statement, Shell welcomed the decision and said it plans to move ahead with the development of the Jackdaw gas field which has the potential to produce 6.5% of Britain's gas output.

British business minister Kwasi Kwarteng said the Jackdaw gas field had received final regulatory approval after it was initially rejected on environmental grounds last October.

"Let's source more of the gas we need from British waters to protect energy security," Kwarteng said on Twitter.

Reuters last week reported that Britain's Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning (OPRED) was poised to approve the field's new environmental development plans, a major milestone for a new development. read more

Under the new plan, Shell plans to start production from the field in the second half of 2025.

Environmental group Greenpeace said it believed the permit approval "could be unlawful, and will consider taking legal action."

The approval comes as Britain struggles with soaring energy prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, with the government urging domestic producers to boost investment to ramp up domestic oil and gas production.

Shell's new plan changed the way it processes gas at the Shearwater hub, to which the Jackdaw field will be connected. Rather than removing all naturally occurring CO2 from the gas offshore, some of it will be exported to the onshore St Fergus terminal where it will be further treated.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uk-government-approv…

[Oginvest]

Shell greenlights $2.5 bln Crux gas project off Australia

Shell Plc said on Monday it had given the go-ahead to develop the Crux gas field off Australia, which analysts estimated would cost around $2.5 billion.

Construction is expected to start in 2023 with first gas expected in 2027, which will feed the 3.6 million tonne a year Prelude floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility, the oil and gas major said in a statement.

Shell said the project would help its Asian customers move from coal to gas, and also provide a secure supply source, a key factor following the imposition of sanctions on Russia.

"The project will also boost our customers' security of supply, which is becoming an ever more significant consideration for global consumers," said Wael Sawan, Shell's director of integrated gas, renewables and energy solutions.

A Shell spokesperson declined to comment on the project's cost saying the company does not comment on capital investments on an individual asset level.

"The use of Prelude's existing infrastructure enables significantly reduced development costs, making Crux competitive and commercially attractive," Sawan said.

Energy consultants Wood Mackenzie estimated it would cost about $2.5 billion, also cited by Credit Suisse analysts.

"In a global context, Crux is an example of the type of incremental, shorter-cycle, high-return development that the industry is targeting as it maintains capital discipline despite strengthening commodity prices," Wood Mackenzie analyst Michael Song said in a note.

However, he said the Crux volumes would enter the market at the same time as around 100 million tonnes a year of new LNG would be coming to the market from Qatar, the United States, Nigeria and Canada.

Credit Suisse analyst highlighted long-running problems at Shell's Prelude FLNG facility potentially hurting returns on the Crux development, which would otherwise be highly valuable as it will use existing infrastructure.

"There is still risk to Shell achieving sustained production rates at the Prelude FLNG facility that could impact Crux value," Kavonic said.
https://www.world-energy.org/article/25080.html

[Startrader01]

Ölpreis (Brent) bei 120 Dollar... 7% im plus... na da muss shell ja fallen....

[Oginvest]

UK windfall tax has reasonable hierarchy of pain

LONDON, May 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Rishi Sunak’s windfall tax is finally here. The UK finance minister said on Thursday he would slap oil and gas producers in the North Sea with a 25% surcharge on rates they already pay. The way he’s designed it implies differing levels of pain, designed to stimulate investment.

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By George Hay

Taxing the spiralling profits of fossil fuel producers could have undermined the UK’s business-friendly kudos. But Britain’s inflation crisis has forced Sunak to double the 15 billion pound fiscal package he unveiled earlier this year. Citizens will now get 400 pounds off their energy bill, while lower-income households will get a 650 pound payment too.

The 5 billion pounds Sunak expects from the haul is more than double the amount Bank of America analysts estimated could be raised from the opposition Labour Party’s plan for a 10% tax surcharge. That’s partly down to the higher rate, but also because Sunak will not allow drillers to offset their bills with decommissioning costs and previous losses. They will, however, benefit from the doubling of an existing investment allowance. For every 1 pound they invest, they will now get a 91 pence tax saving.

That creates winners and losers. Both $5 billion Harbour Energy and $770 million EnQuest will be hurt by Sunak’s stance on past tax losses. But Harbour is set to invest over $750 million in new UK output this year, BofA reckons, while EnQuest’s outlay will be under $250 million. That’s probably why Harbour shares rose 1%, while EnQuest’s slumped 11%.

The big oil majors, like $153 billion TotalEnergies , $225 billion Shell and $105 billion BP , have less to fear given the UK is a small part of their business. Extrapolating from BofA’s analysis of a 10% surcharge, none of them should pay much more than 5% of free cash flow this year. But they could still end up paying different bills, because Total is due to invest less this year.

The main winners seem to be utilities like $24 billion SSE and $3.5 billion Drax , who are untouched. But Sunak still has 10 billion pounds of his fiscal package to fund. And the package announced on Thursday measures just 0.7% of GDP, less than the hike in consumers’ energy bills in just the fourth quarter of last year, Citi reckons. That means Sunak may yet look for more windfalls to grab . In time, they might join EnQuest in the hurt locker.

Context News:

Britain announced a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers’ profits on May 26, alongside a 15 billion pound ($18.9 billion) package of support for households struggling to meet soaring energy bills.

UK finance minister Rishi Sunak said his “temporary targeted energy profits levy” would raise 5 billion pounds ($6.3 billion) in the next 12 months.

He also said there would be a new Investment Allowance that would nearly double the tax relief available for firms on their investments, meaning that for every 1 pound businesses invest they will get 91 pence back.

The government said it would phase out the Energy Profits Levy, but only if oil and gas prices returned to historically more normal levels in future years. The legislation will also include a sunset clause, effective at the end of December 2025.

Harbour Energy, the biggest UK North Sea oil and gas producer, was trading up 0.4% after the announcement, while EnQuest fell 5%. Oil majors BP, TotalEnergies and Shell were up around 1%.

The levy does not apply to electricity generators, but the government said it would “urgently evaluate the scale of these extraordinary profits and the appropriate steps to take”.

(Editing by Neil Unmack, Streisand Neto and Oliver Taslic)
https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/uk-windfall-ta…

[Oginvest]

Shell Gives BW Offshore Limited Notice to Proceed for Gato do Mato FPSO

FPSO supplier BW Offshore said Thursday that Shell had awarded it limited notice to proceed (LNTP) by Shell and its partners for early-stage engineering and supplier reservations for the supply of an FPSO for the Gato do Mato (Wild Cat) oil and gas field offshore Brazil.

The LNTP is valued up to USD 50 million. Upon completion of the LNTP, Shell and its partners target to award a lease and operate contract to a consortium comprising BW Offshore and Saipem S.p.A., which will be jointly responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) of the FPSO with expected delivery in 2026.

The award is subject to the parties finalizing the commercial and pricing terms of the contract in view of the current inflationary supply chain market and a final investment decision to proceed by Shell and its partners.

The FPSO lease and operate contract will have a firm period of 18 years with seven years of options.

“We have a clear strategy of developing and operating infrastructure type floating production solutions with long-term contracts and investment grade counterparties. Gato do Mato is a robust project meeting all our requirements,” said Marco Beenen, the CEO of BW Offshore.

“We will replicate the Barossa project model, bringing in equity partners, and take it one step further by partnering with Saipem for the EPCI phase to add execution capacity and capabilities. We are very pleased to team up with Saipem and look forward to building a long-term relationship with Shell and its partners in Brazil.”
https://brazilenergyinsight.com/2022/05/27/shell-gives-bw-of…

[Oginvest]

India oil cos' $125.5 mln dividend from oil assets stuck in Russia

NEW DELHI, May 27 (Reuters) - Indian companies with stakes in two Russian assets are unable to repatriate 8 billion roubles ($125.49 million) in dividends due to tough western sanctions, an official at Oil India Ltd (OILI.NS) said on Friday.

A consortium comprising Oil India, Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) and Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL.NS)own 23.9% of Russia's Vankorneft oil project and 29.9% of the Tass-Yuryakh oilfield in east Siberia.

A dividend is paid quarterly for Tass-Yuryakh and half yearly for Vankor fields.

"Our dividend is lying in Russian banks and we cannot get it because of problems in swift clearance and other issues," said Harish Madhav, head of finance at Oil India, at a press conference to announce the company's quarterly earnings.

...

Reuters last month reported that India asked state-run energy companies to evaluate the possibility of buying Russian oil and gas assets shunned by BP (BP.L) and Exxon Mobile Corp (XOM.N) in Russia. read more

Shell (SHEL.L) is also in talks with Indian companies to sell its stake in a major liquefied natural gas plant in Russia, sources told Reuters. read more

India's largest gas transmitter GAIL (India) Ltd (GAIL.NS) is open to buying distressed Russian oil and gas assets if the deal makes commercial sense, its chairman said earlier on Friday. read more

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/india-oil-cos-12…

[Matthias 2]

Shell verkauft Tankstellen- und Schmierstoffgeschäft in Russland

Shell completes sale of retail and lubricants businesses in Russia

25 May, 2022

Shell Overseas Investments B.V. and B.V. Dordtsche Petroleum Maatschappij, subsidiaries of Shell plc, have completed the sale of Shell Neft LLC, Shell’s retail stations and lubricants business in Russia, to PJSC LUKOIL. This follows the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals.

The sale agreement was announced on May 12, 2022. All people currently working for Shell Neft, more than 350 in total, will remain employed by Shell Neft, which is now owned by LUKOIL.

The transaction is part of Shell’s wider withdrawal from all Russian hydrocarbons which is being conducted in a phased manner, in line with its announcement in early March. The sale has been carried out in full compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.
Notes to Editors:
Completion is subject to customary registration requirements (this takes approximately five days under Russian regulations)
Lukoil is one of the largest publicly traded, vertically integrated oil and gas companies in the world in terms of proved hydrocarbon reserves and production; and the second largest producer of crude oil in Russia. Established in 1991, Lukoil currently operates globally with core upstream assets located in Russia. The full production cycle includes oil and gas exploration, production and refining; production of petrochemicals and lubricants; power generation; marketing and distribution.
On March 8, 2022, Shell announced its intent to withdraw from its involvement in all Russian hydrocarbons, including crude oil, petroleum products, gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a phased manner.
Shell Neft’s retail network consists of 240 sites owned by Shell Neft, and 171 sites owned by dealers.

[Startrader01]

STEMPELSTEUER FLATEX

es gibt etwas neues:

Flatex hat mir tatsächlich die Stempelsteuer wieder gut geschrieben. Und zwar mit einem ganz plumpen Kundenanschreiben "Storno Gebührenbelastung"

aber jetzt kommts:

das ist sicher nicht automatisch bei jedem Kunden passiert, denn bei meiner Mutter ihrem Depot bei Flatex wurde das noch nicht wieder gutgeschrieben. Ich habe aber auch viel Druck gemacht und bei meiner Mutter ihrem Depot hatte ich nur einen Wiederspruch eingelegt.

Falls es da auch noch erstattet wird werde ich das hier verkünden.

Gruß

Startrader