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    Diskussion zu Silver Elephant Mining Corp, ehemals Prophecy Development Corp. (Seite 2339)

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 12:33:05
      Beitrag Nr. 11.655 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.590.301 von Pieselwitz am 08.05.13 11:48:18Das Chandgana Projekt, auf das sich hier alle Hoffnungen stützen, wird mit keiner Silbe erwähnt. Schon sehr seltsam.

      Ja, sehr seltsam. :laugh:

      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 12:24:40
      Beitrag Nr. 11.654 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.590.077 von Pieselwitz am 08.05.13 11:27:01...wie z.B. Aktienverkäufe über die Börse,

      Aha. Hier Insidertrades der letzten 9 Monate.

      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 12:23:14
      Beitrag Nr. 11.653 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.590.473 von Merde4you am 08.05.13 12:05:42Es muß jeder selbst wissen,wie er mit der Sache umgeht. Nur ist nicht alles rosarot, wie bei der hier vertretenen maßgeblichen Meinungsbildung!:eek:

      Volle Zustimmung. Die ganzen Optimisten dieses Threads lagen in der Vergangenheit in einer immer wiederkehrenden Regelmäßigkeit voll daneben, die Kursentwicklung von PCy drückt das sehr deutlich aus.

      Die Fragezeichen hinter Prophcy Coal werden für mich immer deutlicher. Da das Chandgana Projekt, auf das sich hier alle Hoffnungen stützen, bisher zu keinem Zeitpunkt von den zuständigen Entscheidungsträgern erwähnt wurde, stellt sich für mich die berechtigte Frage, ob sich der Vorstand J. Lee von Prophecy Coal mittlerweile "verzockt" hat und zum Spielball verschiedener Interessen oder Investoren geworden ist? Sollte das so sein, so kann Prophecy Coal mit diesem Mangament nur der Verlierer sein. Ich kann mir beim besten Willen nicht vorstellen, dass man gegen die politischen Entscheidungsträger in der Mongolei auch nur den Hauch einer Chance hat.

      Die Risiken sind hier für mich mittlerweile, trotz eines möglichen PPA, unüberschaubar geworden.

      Und den Energiehunger, den die Mongolei hat, und der hier immer wieder von den Optimisten aufgezeigt wird und als Kaufargument dienen soll, das ist mir viel zu oberflächlich und rechtfertigt für mich keine Investition in Aktien von Prophecy Coal.

      LG Pieselwitz
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 12:05:42
      Beitrag Nr. 11.652 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.590.295 von hagadi am 08.05.13 11:47:56Wieso hab ich nur das Gefühl das es nicht jedem bewußt ist, welch Potential in der Mongolei gerade in den gewaltigen Oberflächenkohlevorkommen und deren Vermarktung jeglicher Art und Weise steckt. Also noch mal eine
      Übersicht in dieser Sache.

      das ist schon richtig, natürlich mit allen bestehenden rechtlichen,techn.
      und anderen Risiken/Unwägbarkeiten, die beim Projekt dieser Art latent vorhanden sind.Chancen -/Risikoverhältnis zzt. nicht homogen.

      Es muß jeder selbst wissen,wie er mit der Sache umgeht. Nur ist nicht alles rosarot, wie bei der hier vertretenen maßgeblichen Meinungsbildung!:eek:
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 11:48:18
      Beitrag Nr. 11.651 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.590.185 von Merde4you am 08.05.13 11:36:30Das Chandgana Projekt, auf das sich hier alle Hoffnungen stützen, wird mit keiner Silbe erwähnt. Schon sehr seltsam.

      LG Pieselwitz
      2 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 11:47:56
      Beitrag Nr. 11.650 ()
      Wieso hab ich nur das Gefühl das es nicht jedem bewußt ist, welch Potential in der Mongolei gerade in den gewaltigen Oberflächenkohlevorkommen und deren Vermarktung jeglicher Art und Weise steckt. Also noch mal eine
      Übersicht in dieser Sache.

      http://www.prophecycoal.com/crucial-coal-powering-mongolias-…

      Crucial Coal: Powering Mongolia’s future

      Electricity demand in Mongolia- major driver from world-class mineral deposits

      The dramatic and continuing rise in Mongolia’s energy demand is being driven by the rapid development of the country’s mining based economy. During the period of 2007‐2011, electricity consumption in Mongolia increased on an average 6% per year. However, the Ministry of Mineral Resource of Mongolia estimates that overall electricity demand is expected to grow at 14% in the future. Major international mining firms have become involved in developing Mongolia’s over-abundance of resources, including 15 world-class strategic mineral deposits with an estimate resource value of over $1.2 trillion. Projects of this magnitude require vast quantities of power from reliable sources.

      Figure1. Typical strategic deposits in Mongolia



      Source: Mongolia stock exchange
      Southern Mongolia- Richly endowed with Natural Resources but lacking power

      The South Gobi region, in south of Mongolia, is currently isolated from the Central energy system. The mines of South Gobi that are in operation must, therefore, supply their own electricity. Power demand in that region is expected to grow rapidly as a result of both the existing and new mining developments. The two biggest current players in South Gobi are:

      Oyu Tolgoi (OT) – a world-class gold and copper mine being developed by Ivanhoe Mines. The deposit is estimated to hold over 35 million tonnes of copper and 1,275 tonnes of gold, according to European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. OT is poised to generate $61 billion over 27 years, according to the Mongolia Stock Exchange.
      Tavan Tolgoi (TT) – the largest undeveloped coal deposit in the world. TT is estimated to hold reserves of over 6 billion tonnes of coal, according to European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The Mongolia Stock Exchange estimates that TT will be operable for 200+ years, with an annual return of $1.6 billion for the first 29 years.
      A presentation by the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia forecasts total demand from major customers in the South Gobi region of around 870MW to 1130MW.

      Figure 2. Forecast electricity demand from the major South Gobi mines


      Source: Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia



      Power supply in Mongolia- dominated by Central Energy System (CES)

      The power system of Mongolia consists of the three unconnected energy systems (the Central, Western and Eastern Energy Systems), diesel generators and heat-only boilers in off-grid areas. In total, 91% of the country’s electricity is produced by the Central Energy System and 96% of the electricity demand of the country is met by the CES.

      Figure 3. Map of Mongolia power systems



      Source: Energy Regulatory Authority of Mongolia
      The Electricity and heat is supplied by five combined heat and power (CHP) plants. The limited installed capacity of these existing power plants results in an ongoing and increasing energy deficit which is currently being offset by costly and unreliable electricity imports from Russia.

      Figure 4. Electricity supply breakdown and demand


      Source: Energy Regulatory Authority of Mongolia, Eurasia Capital-INFRASTRUCTURE IN MONGOLIA April 2009

      Coal fired power plants- Critical to Mongolia energy system

      As the primary source of energy for Mongolia, the coal industry is critical to the operation of Mongolia’s energy system. According to the Ministry of Mineral Resource and Energy of Mongolia, Mongolia’s electricity-generation capacity is comprised of 7 thermal power plants, 13 hydroelectric power plants, several hundred diesel generators, 20 wind power plants and 1 solar power plant. Of these sources, the overwhelming supply of electricity comes from coal-fired plants, which generate approximately 80% of the country’s power.

      Figure 5. Electricity generated by source in Mongolia


      Source: Mongolia national renewable energy program

      There are five major thermal power plants (TPP) in the Central Energy System (CES). The current installed power capacity for coal fired power plants in Mongolia is 814 MW, but only 646 MW is available because of aging power plants, with most being over 30 years old. Because of age and deterioration, the TPP #2 is expected to retire in 2012 and the TPP #3 is expected to retire in 2016. Because Mongolia’s capital, Ulaanbaatar, relies so heavily on these plants and lacks any replacement power source, they have to be kept in operation well past their lifespan.

      Figure 6. Current coal fired power plants in CES



      Source: Energy Regulatory Authority (2007), Eurasia Capital.

      The aging of the existing power plant infrastructure results in energy inefficiency and electricity loss due to 1) lower actual available power capacity and load factors and 2) Higher self-electricity consumption in power plants. The Mongolian government acknowledges this as a major issue and aims to reduce the whole system loss of the CES but the electricity loss remains a significant area of concern that will need to be addressed.

      Figure 7. Total system electricity loss in CES


      Source: Energy Regulatory Authority of Mongolia-2010 annual report

      Due to government regulated low electricity and heat tariffs, energy producers and thermal coal suppliers were historically unable to operate profitably. Companies operated with support by international loans and grants, and state budget subsidies. In late 2010, the parliament of Mongolia approved step by step liberalization of energy tariffs. The sector is planned to operate based on market principals beginning in 2014. Electricity tariffs are expected to increased to ease the operating pressure of power suppliers due to: 1) the increase of retail tariffs lagging behind the CPI and 2) wholesale tariffs increasing to maintain service level 3) licensees facing cost pressure from increasing input prices.

      Figure 8: Retail Tariff Vs. CPI


      Source: ERA annual report 2009, 2010 and Website, World bank-Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update Aug 2011

      Potential sources of power

      1. Renewable energy- challenge for the ambitious plan

      Currently, renewable energy (hydro, solar and wind) only represents about 4% of Mongolia’s total electricity generating capacity. In the most remote areas, because of low demand and lack of other energy sources, use of renewable energies is viable. The Mongolian government passed the Renewable Energy Program in 2005, mandating that green energy sources account for 20-25 percent of Mongolia’s needs by 2020. Solar photovoltaic and wind power have potential in Mongolia, given the country’s vast steppes and ample wind.

      Figure 9: Mongolia renewable energy program forecast



      Source: Energy Authority of Mongolia
      Modern solar cells are lightweight and portable enough to mesh well with a lifestyle involving frequent travel. Because of that, in Mongolia, solar energy use has mainly focused on decentralized individual solar home electricity systems, which but would also be suitable for larger scale solar energy applications.
      In terms of wind power, one Mongolian company, Newcom Group, will start construction of the first sizeable wind power plant in Mongolia, with an installed capacity of 50MW.

      Figure 10: Renewable power plant in remote area during 2006-2008



      Source: Energy authority of Mongolia

      While a laudable goal, the practical reality of implementing such an ambitious renewable energy plan, particularly for wind power plants, is rife with significant obstacles. According to the Energy Authority of Mongolia, real-world problems include: 1) frequent performance problems; 2) a shortage of the government financing needed to acquire high quality small wind turbines; 3) contract-awarded inexperienced national companies had financial loss due to repetitive repair.

      2. Diesel generators – unstable diesel supply and high cost

      Diesel generators are popular in remote areas with no connection to the grid. In the South Gobi region, the Tavan Tolgoi mine is building a 20MW diesel power plant as a temporary electricity solution. Two major problems need to be solved for diesel power plants to be viable long-term:

      1) The unstable supply of diesel.

      Mongolia sources over 90 percent of its fuel from Russia. These imports are unstable as Russia may suddenly curtail it fuel exports as it has done in the past. This has the corollary effect of driving up domestic prices.
      2) The high operating cost for using diesel to generate power.

      Because Mongolia is forced to import diesel to offset its domestic energy needs, the selling in that country is higher than China, Kazakhstan and Russia. This also places Mongolia in a vulnerable position with respect to import tariffs. In May 2011, Mongolia experienced a severe fuel crisis as Russia raised duties on fuel exports by over 40 percent. Such actions particularly affect mining, agriculture and construction because these sectors have only a short operational season before the onset of winter.

      Figure 11. Prices of gasoline and diesel in June 2011



      Source: Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update-2011 Aug

      3. New coal-fired power plant – the ideal for powering Mongolia’s future.

      Although alternative energy sources will continue to be developed, until technology and efficiency dramatically improve, the solution to Mongolia’s energy crisis lies in coal. The country has total coal reserves estimated at 150 billion metric tons, and three major coal fired power plants are planned to be built in order to meet the growing demand.

      Standing out among these projects is Prophecy Coal Corp’s 600 mega-watt Changdana thermal coal power plant. The first sizeable new power plant in Mongolia in decades, the Chandgana project is fully-licensed and endorsed by the government. Construction is expected to commence in the second quarter of 2013, with power on anticipated for Q4 of 2015. The Prophecy project is in the advanced stages as compared to the other proposed projects, with the company looking to finalize a power purchase agreement with the Mongolian government in the coming months.

      Figure 12. Major Coal fired Power Plants in progress



      Source: The world bank-Mongloa: Power Sector Development and South Gobi Development, Prophecy Coal Corp company presentation

      Conclusion

      The leaders and people of that Mongolia have long-recognized its potential as a modern, booming economy and international firms continue to embrace it as evidenced by massive and increasing foreign investment. With this expansion, Mongolia’s critical energy shortages are expected to become more and more pronounced as new draws strain the existing supply and further increase reliance on costly and unstable imports. To sustain its impressive development, it is vital that the Mongolian government address the energy situation by utilizing their abundant coal resources and that they do so in the most efficient, modern and clean facilities technology has developed.
      2 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 11:40:06
      Beitrag Nr. 11.649 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.590.113 von Merde4you am 08.05.13 11:30:47Prophecy Coal steht doch finanziell jetzt schon mit dem Rücken zur Wand. Die Privatplatzierung zu 0,14 CAD, die bisher völlig zurecht nicht am Markt platziert werden konnte, weil das Managment von PCY aufgrund ständig verfehlter Prognosen und Angaben sämtliches Vertrauen der Investoren verspielt hat, ist der beste Beweis für die aktuellen problem, mit denen PCY zu kämpfen hat.

      Man macht sich in der aktuellen Situation von möglichen Investoren abhängig, dass wirkt sich auf die zukünftige Wirtschaftlichkeit einzelner Projekte aus und deshalb ist der Insolvenzgedanke für mich sehr naheliegend. Die Ausgaben von PCY sind jetzt schon um eine Vielfaches höher, eine Einnahmesituation gibt es erst gar nicht.

      LG Pieselwitz
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 11:36:30
      Beitrag Nr. 11.648 ()
      aus stockhouse, can

      Zitat :
      Lots of power plants mentioned here but nothing about Prophecy's:

      Mongolia to be energy self-sufficient by 2014, says minister



      Published Monday April 29, 2013
      By B.Khash-Erdene
      Minister of Energy M.Sonompil said last week that the ministry is aiming to make Mongolia energy self sufficient by next year and plans to expand energy production further to eventually become an energy exporter. The minister’s comments came during a regular update on the ministry’s current projects and plans. The updates are part of the government’s actions to increase transparency.
      Minister M.Sonompil noted that the government has already put in place measures to expand Thermal Power Plant 4 (TPP4) by up to 100 megawatts and to expand TPP 3 by up to 50 megawatts, and said that projects to establish the Amgalan Power Plant and the 450 megawatt TPP 5 will begin this year. He also noted that the Salkhit Wind Farm, with capacity of up to 200 megawatts, will commence operations this year.
      The minister also said that, as reported earlier this month, the government is planning to build a 450 megawatt power plant adjacent to the giant Tavan Tolgoi coal mine in southern Mongolia. The plant will power both the Tavan Tolgoi project as well as the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold project. The power plant is expected to cost over 500 million USD, with the initial funding of 50 million USD allocated from the proceeds of the government’s Chinggis Bonds.
      The ministry is also planning to expand Western Region Power Plant, Shuren Hydroelectric Power Station, Baganoor Power Plant, and Chailablsan Power Plants, and will construct another new power plant, the Shivee Ovoo Power Plant. The ministry will also continue the Renewable Energy and Rural Electricity Access Program, which supplies portable off-grid solar-powered electricity supply systems for individual gers in remote areas.
      Miniser M.Sonompil also reported that the ministry is working to improve the legal framework related to energy cost-cutting bills and the energy master plan, and is planning to amend the renewable energy law.
      In 2012, 91.4 percent of total electricity produced came from Mongolia’s thermal power plants, 1.2 percent from hydroelectric generators, 0.48 percent from diesel stations, and 0.1 percent from renewable resouces (solar and wind).
      Mongolia currently produces 813 megawatts of electricity domestically but demand is around 850 megawatts. The country imports electricity to meet the gap between supply and demand. Imports made up 7.6 percent of domestic consumption in 2012.
      Experts estimate that domestic energy demand is set to increase to 1,500 megawatts by 2020 and 3,000 megawatt by 2025. The International Monetary Fund last year reportedly projected a deficit of over 600 megawatts by 2016.
      3 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
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      schrieb am 08.05.13 11:30:47
      Beitrag Nr. 11.647 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.589.901 von Spriing am 08.05.13 11:09:56eine Insolvenz nicht auszuschliessen ist aber auch sehr schlicht!
      Man wird sehen, wie die Auswirkungen den Verlauf beeinflußen.:yawn:
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.05.13 11:27:01
      Beitrag Nr. 11.646 ()
      Mich wundert es nur, dass all die negativen Fakten von Prophecy Coal - wovon es eine Menge gibt - wie z.B. Aktienverkäufe über die Börse, aufgelöste Beraterverträge mit Abfindungen für den Vorstand, rechtsstreitigkeiten, nicht eingehaltene Prognosen, Finanzielle Probleme, Probleme beim Zeichnen der Privatplatzierung neuer Aktien hier zu keinem Zeitpunkt thematisiert wurden.

      Stattdessen nur Erwartungshaltungen für das Jahr 2016 und Durchhalteparolen.

      Aufgrund meiner Risikobewertung dieser Aktie ist Prophecy Coal für mich derzeit ein klarer Verkauf.

      LG Pieselwitz
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
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      Diskussion zu Silver Elephant Mining Corp, ehemals Prophecy Development Corp.