ROUNDUP/'WSJ': FBI ermittelt wegen Falschangaben zu Model 3 gegen Tesla (Seite 202) | Diskussion im Forum

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 70.466.189 von faultcode am 11.01.22 10:29:00

Zitat von faultcode: hier die Poesie von Adam Jonas/Morgan Stanley im Original:
...

ob Adam Jonas seinen Job bei Morgan Stanley noch in z.B. 2 Jahren haben wird, wenn sein Chef(?) nun zu dieser Einschätzung gelangte?

2.5.
...
We think the S&P 500 has minimum downside to 3800 in the near term and possible as low as 3460,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson said. The gloomy forecast implies a drop between 8% and 16% for the U.S. benchmark from current levels, amid higher costs and increased recession risks, Wilson wrote in a note to clients.
...
“Anyone who tells you we are in a bull market has got a lot of explaining to do,” Wilson wrote in the note, adding that the “S&P 500 real earnings yield is the most negative since the 1950s.”
...
Bulls Have Much ‘Explaining To Do,’ Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bulls-much-explaining-morgan-…


ob Adam Jonas da noch irgendwas erklären möchte?

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.478.092 von faultcode am 02.05.22 22:45:43

der Mann dafür verantwortlich aus meiner Sicht: Jared Birchall aka "James Brickhouse"

noch von letzter Woche:

27.4.
The only man Elon trusts to look after his $240 billion: Secretive friend who runs Musk's family office controls his wealth - but also helped him investigate 'pedo guy' and was fired by Merrill Lynch
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10757291/The-man-El…

-- Jared Birchall, aged 47 or 48, is head of Elon Musk's 'family office' - the asset management firm to handle his finances
-- Musk has been referring the details of his $44 billion Twitter takeover to Birchall's organization, which is run out of a nondescript office in Austin, Texas
-- Birchall was described in 2019 by Musk as one of two people who run the office - an unusually small number to manage a massive fortune
-- Birchall, a married father of five, leads a low-key existence: he worked his way up through Goldman Sachs to Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley
-- In 2016 he joined Musk, and in 2018 was recruited by his boss to hire a private investigator to investigate a cave diver Musk accused of being a pedophile
...

He works from an unassuming eight story office block, beneath an underpass on the outskirts of Austin.

He was fired by Merrill Lynch for 'conduct resulting in management's loss of confidence', and went on to carve out a decent yet unremarkable career in finance: few have ever heard of him.
Yet Jared Birchall is now leading one of the most significant corporate takeovers of our time, as the man Elon Musk refers enquiries to for his $44 billion takeover of Twitter. 'Once you appoint somebody to run the family office, that means that you trust him,' said Raphael Amit, a management professor at the Wharton School.

'And Elon wants to set it up in a way that allows him (Birchall) maximum control.' Birchall, a 47 year-old married father of five, has worked for Musk since 2016, helping to manage a fortune estimated on Tuesday at $240 billion. Birchall runs what is termed as the 'family office' - a private wealth management advisory firm that serves ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

He has an unusually wide remit, Amit told Reuters. In 2021 he was registered as the manager of Excession, Musk's family office, and he is also the chief executive of Musk's brain chip firm Neuralink; a director at Musk's tunneling firm the Boring Company; and a board member at Musk's philanthropic private foundation. 'Excession' is the title of a science-fiction novel by Iain M. Banks about artificial intelligence.
Musk was seen carrying the book at a Sun Valley, Idaho, conference in 2015 - a year before Birchall was recruited to run the family office.

In 2019, Musk said that Excession was staffed by 'essentially two people'. The second person is not known.

By contrast, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates's family offices both employ around 100 people.

Birchall graduated from Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah, in 1999 - that year, only two percent of students were not Mormons, Deseret News reported at the time. Birchall's Facebook, now little used, suggests a profound personal faith.
He went to work at Goldman Sachs in New York immediately on graduating, and worked as a financial analyst, according to his LinkedIn.

In 2000 he joined Merrill Lynch in Los Angeles, working for about a decade as a wealth manager.
Merrill Lynch discharged Birchall in 2010 for 'conduct resulting in management's loss of confidence' that included 'sending correspondence to a client without management approval,' according to Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) records.

Less than a month later, Birchall began working at Morgan Stanley as a wealth manager. A Morgan Stanley spokesperson told Reuters that Birchall was well-regarded when he worked at the bank and left on good terms. He left Morgan Stanley after six years to join Musk's family office.

Birchall's salary is unclear: there is no regulatory requirement for family offices to publicly disclose their assets or their key personnel.
...

Birchall's role has extended beyond finance. In 2018, he hired a private investigator to look in to a British diver who criticized Musk's idea of using SpaceX's mini-submarine to rescue a boys' soccer team trapped in a cave in Thailand, according to court documents.
When Musk called the diver a 'pedo guy' in a response on Twitter, the diver sued him for defamation. In the ensuing trial, it emerged that Birchall, going by the name James Brickhouse, hired a private detective to investigate the diver. Birchall said in court testimony he had an 'instinct to protect Musk.'

Musk won the case. 'The idea of loyalty, especially in the family office, is profoundly important, said Amit. 'Because you're exposed to the most intimate and private issues that families have.'

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.478.080 von faultcode am 02.05.22 22:43:16

"a few technicalities"

dazu passt auch wieder gut, daß es mal wieder offensichtlich -- welch ein Zufall -- Probleme mit dem Papierkram gibt:

2.5.
...
In an amended 10-K form, Tesla said that its proxy statement will be filed later than the usual 120 days after the end of the fiscal year because of a few technicalities.
Monday’s amendment also appeared to have a discrepancy regarding Musk’s Tesla’s holdings, using information from December 2020 rather than more recent numbers.
...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-asks-for-more-time-t…

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.465.207 von faultcode am 30.04.22 20:48:31

Monday, May 02, 2022
Blind Item #8
The celebrity CEO has been talking to an NBA owner to see if he would be interested in partnering on the Bird purchase. The NBA owner said no because of the cash flow issues of the Bird company.
https://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2022/05/blind-item-8_2.ht…

--> nun weiß es ja eigentlich jeder: der "reichste Mann der Welt" geht Klinken putzen, um Geld für die Twitter-Übernahme zusammenzukratzen

Gut, er könnte ja noch mehr $TSLA-Aktien verkaufen

Tags: Mark Cuban

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.421.629 von faultcode am 25.04.22 21:17:39

take the money and run (3)

Zitat von faultcode: ...
Ich glaube, es geht EM auch in Wahrheit darum, der ganzen Welt (im Nachhinein) zu zeigen, daß er "going private" machen kann...

schon (weil er ja der weltbekannteste Angeber ist) und wegen der vergeigten Aktion mit den Saudis von 2018 und dem damit immer noch verbundenen Gerichtsverfahren (siehe oben).

ABER: ich denke (nun) auch, Elon Musk will in Wahrheit gar nicht, daß die Twitter-Übernahme mit seinem Geld/Vermögen als Haupt-Finanzquelle wirklich durchkommt:
• bis zu einer Absage verginge noch soviel Zeit, daß er auf/in/mit Twitter noch viel Remmidemmi machen kann ("EDIT"-Button und vieles mehr)
• wie oben gesagt: 1 Milliarde U.S. dollar Breakup fee sind nicht viel vor diesem Hintergrund:

From April 26 to 28, Musk sold almost 10 million shares to raise around $9 billion. That cash will provide a big part of the $21 billion in equity he must raise.

=> was sind schon 1 Milliarde U.S. dollar, wenn man dafür schon jetzt 9 Milliarden U.S. dollar Cash aus der $TSLA-Aktie mit einer guten Ausrede zu immer noch wirklich guten Kursen herausziehen konnte, trotz Einkommensteuern drauf?

Ja, Elon Musk versprach mal wieder, daß die Verkaufe nun beendet seien. Aber sowas (Ähnliches) sagte er auch schon in der Vergangenheit ohne besondere Konsequenzen für ihn:


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519850299757846530

"planned" -- alles klar

Siehe oben: Gary Black z.B. wollte bis zuletzt nicht glauben. daß Elon Musk $TSLA-Aktien verkauft


=> mich würde daher nicht wundern, wenn eines Tages herauskäme, daß diese ganze Twitter-Aktion vorrangig dazu diente, quasi nebenbei die völlig überteuerten $TSLA-Aktien teilweise zu Geld zu machen:


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1209142364473843713

[Boblovin]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.465.039 von faultcode am 30.04.22 20:03:32

Zitat von faultcode: 30.4. 📢📢
The inside story of how Elon Musk won Twitter—and could still lose it
https://fortune.com/2022/04/30/elon-musk-buys-twitter-inside…
...
The video call with Musk stood apart from a typical meeting where a private equity firm pitches banks to finance an LBO, or a leveraged “take private” of a public company. “In those cases, the sponsor will present a 100-page deck with all kinds of financial detail,” says the person present.
“But Musk didn’t present his own numbers. He just said, ‘We use the EBITDA estimates from the buy-side security analysts.’ The banks were comfortable with that approach because there was so much public information available about Twitter’s finances.”
...

In total, Musk was able to secure commitments from a consortium of 12 lenders, for $25.5 billion in debt financing.
...

Of the total amount Musk cobbled together, $13 billion comes via four separate term bridge and revolving credit facilities, and $12.5 billion as a “margin” loan secured by Tesla shares. Musk has also agreed to contribute $21 billion in cash, as equity, from his personal fortune. (The total financing of $46.5 billion is higher than the $44 billion purchase price because Musk will refinance part of Twitter’s maturing debt.)

But the banks don’t just ante up that kind of money without a big safety cushion.

According to the fine print hammered out, it was agreed that Musk must pledge as collateral five times the $12.5 billion amount, or $62.5 billion. At Tesla’s share price of $1,001 before Musk clinched the deal, he would have needed to provide 62 million shares as collateral. The recent price drop in Tesla to $871 per share means that he’ll need to tie up far more stock—some 72 million shares or an additional 16%, to meet the $62.5 billion requirement. Seventy-two million shares equals 44% of Musk’s current holdings of 163 million shares.

Musk must have seen the potential pitfalls: A steeply falling price could force him to dump shares in a hurry. The agreement stipulates that if the value securing the loan falls from $62.5 billion to $36 billion, Musk would get a margin call that forces him to contribute at least $15 billion in cash.

He can’t use additional shares to close that gap. Hence, he might well have to sell a big chunk of Tesla shares to raise the money. Since he’ll have to pay a fat tax bill, the total proceeds would need to be well over $20 billion.

Keep in mind, it would take a 40%-plus tumble in Tesla’s price to around $500 before Musk would face a margin call.

But if that happens, he’d be forced to unload something like 45 million shares to raise the necessary cash; obviously the lower the price, the more he would have to sell. A dump that huge could crater the stock price, especially since investors would fear even more big sales ahead. Of course, the banks have protected themselves by securing the personal guarantee covering all of his assets. But Tesla’s owners could still suffer if the EV-maker’s shares are Musk’s most liquid asset, and hence the pile he grabs to meet margin calls.
...


As James Woolery, founding partner in law firm Woolery & Co. and former head of North American M&A for JPMorgan Chase. explained to Fortune, there’s a reason why hostile takeovers are so few and far between these days—and virtually the only ones that can pull them off are spectacularly wealthy lone wolves. He cites the example of staggered boards. "Today, it's standard practice for the target's board to activate a poison pill," says Woolery. "The only way to cancel the pill is to lead a proxy battle by proposing your own slate of directors, and winning the majority of the seats. But in many cases, only one-third of the directors are elected at each annual meeting, so it can take two years to win the majority and terminate the pill."

In some cases, adds Woolery, the index funds that often own 25% or more of the shares are more inclined to back management than the likes of individuals and hedge funds, so another tough, unpredictable task is persuading advisors such as ISS that strongly influence the passive vote.

So Musk had to play the hand he was dealt. He’d have to go through the board, but in order to pressure them to take the deal he’d need to convince Twitter’s major shareholders to back him.

Per reports from outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Musk began reaching out to some of Twitter’s active shareholders via video calls to garner support for the deal. (Several of Twitter’s largest active shareholders declined to comment to Fortune.)
...

A few things to note: This was an unsolicited bid, meaning Musk’s side would not have been given access to Twitter’s books, as would happen during due diligence during a traditional acquisition or takeover.
...

Outstanding employee equity-based awards and stock options will be converted to cash once the deal is finalized, per the merger agreement. This may add to employee concerns about the takeover, since it could cut them off from long-term appreciation of Twitter’s stock had it remained public.

Both parties face a $1 billion termination fee—for Twitter if it accepts a rival bid or recommends shareholders vote against the deal or otherwise breaches this agreement; For X Holdings I (i.e. Musk) if he can’t satisfy his financial obligations or meet the closing conditions. Either Twitter or Musk can terminate the fee after Oct. 24, 2022, but this deadline can be extended six months if antitrust or regulatory drag approval out.
...

Yes, it sounds like a big number. But some dealwatchers say it’s low: Tim Pagliara, chief investment officer, CapWealth, a Franklin, Tenn.–based wealth management firm, told Fortune that the number is a red flag, and "is at the low end for a transaction of this size."

"If the breakup fee was $5 billion," he continued, "Twitter's stock price would likely be higher. The breakup fee itself says something about the likelihood of the deal getting done." Pagliara sees the puny divorce levy as a sign "there's not a high level of confidence that a deal will be able to pass the various hurdles ahead, including regulatory approval and Musk's further due diligence of Twitter."

Another problem for Musk, as Fortune reported, are the short-sellers circling Twitter's stock. As of April 28, short positions as a percentage of Twitter's overall float stood at 5.52%, according to S3 Partners, a firm that analyzes such trades. That's not an alarming number, but what pops out is the recent surge in short bets against Twitter.
...

Musk’s bigger problem, of course, is Tesla’s stock price, because his financing depends on it staying elevated. And yes, Tesla’s ardent fans can barely imagine their favorite sliding to $500.
...

From April 26 to 28, Musk sold almost 10 million shares to raise around $9 billion. That cash will provide a big part of the $21 billion in equity he must raise. He could also recruit a private equity partner to furnish the balance. Nothing in the credit agreements blocks Musk from raising the funds by once again, getting a margin loan. But Tesla’s bylaws limit the loan-to-value ratio on any credits that its directors secure to 25%. Hence, if Musk wanted to raise another even $10 billion, he’d have to pledge an additional $40 billion in his shares. Then, about two-third of his holdings would sit fenced-off backing bank loans, greatly increasing the size of the necessary sales, and damage to Tesla’s share price, if he starts getting margin calls.

Musk also faces pressure from the ongoing outlays and costs of owning Twitter. Twitter will be paying in the range of $600 million a year in additional interest on the $13 billion in debt financing. The margin loan will cost Musk over $400 million a year in interest, and he’ll need to fund $3 billion annually in amortization. By the way, the fee for the credits alone comes to $62.5 million.

Besides, Twitter is losing money. In its Q1 earnings announcement, it disclosed an operating loss of $128 million for the quarter and a negative margin of 11%. Over the past four quarters, it’s suffered a shortfall in free cash flow of over $600 million as expenses have far outpaced revenues. It’s possible that Musk, who as of yet hasn’t revealed his plans to improve Twitter’s profitability, will need to cover his new property’s losses from his own resources.
...

Jetzt wirds spannend. Damit gibt sich Elon selbst zum Abschuss frei für Leerverkäufer. Eine größere Steilvorlage ist fast nicht mehr möglich

[faultcode]

"the banks have protected themselves by securing the personal guarantee covering all of his assets"

30.4. 📢📢
The inside story of how Elon Musk won Twitter—and could still lose it
https://fortune.com/2022/04/30/elon-musk-buys-twitter-inside…
...
The video call with Musk stood apart from a typical meeting where a private equity firm pitches banks to finance an LBO, or a leveraged “take private” of a public company. “In those cases, the sponsor will present a 100-page deck with all kinds of financial detail,” says the person present.
“But Musk didn’t present his own numbers. He just said, ‘We use the EBITDA estimates from the buy-side security analysts.’ The banks were comfortable with that approach because there was so much public information available about Twitter’s finances.”
...

In total, Musk was able to secure commitments from a consortium of 12 lenders, for $25.5 billion in debt financing.
...

Of the total amount Musk cobbled together, $13 billion comes via four separate term bridge and revolving credit facilities, and $12.5 billion as a “margin” loan secured by Tesla shares. Musk has also agreed to contribute $21 billion in cash, as equity, from his personal fortune. (The total financing of $46.5 billion is higher than the $44 billion purchase price because Musk will refinance part of Twitter’s maturing debt.)

But the banks don’t just ante up that kind of money without a big safety cushion.

According to the fine print hammered out, it was agreed that Musk must pledge as collateral five times the $12.5 billion amount, or $62.5 billion. At Tesla’s share price of $1,001 before Musk clinched the deal, he would have needed to provide 62 million shares as collateral. The recent price drop in Tesla to $871 per share means that he’ll need to tie up far more stock—some 72 million shares or an additional 16%, to meet the $62.5 billion requirement. Seventy-two million shares equals 44% of Musk’s current holdings of 163 million shares.

Musk must have seen the potential pitfalls: A steeply falling price could force him to dump shares in a hurry. The agreement stipulates that if the value securing the loan falls from $62.5 billion to $36 billion, Musk would get a margin call that forces him to contribute at least $15 billion in cash.

He can’t use additional shares to close that gap. Hence, he might well have to sell a big chunk of Tesla shares to raise the money. Since he’ll have to pay a fat tax bill, the total proceeds would need to be well over $20 billion.

Keep in mind, it would take a 40%-plus tumble in Tesla’s price to around $500 before Musk would face a margin call.

But if that happens, he’d be forced to unload something like 45 million shares to raise the necessary cash; obviously the lower the price, the more he would have to sell. A dump that huge could crater the stock price, especially since investors would fear even more big sales ahead. Of course, the banks have protected themselves by securing the personal guarantee covering all of his assets. But Tesla’s owners could still suffer if the EV-maker’s shares are Musk’s most liquid asset, and hence the pile he grabs to meet margin calls.
...


As James Woolery, founding partner in law firm Woolery & Co. and former head of North American M&A for JPMorgan Chase. explained to Fortune, there’s a reason why hostile takeovers are so few and far between these days—and virtually the only ones that can pull them off are spectacularly wealthy lone wolves. He cites the example of staggered boards. "Today, it's standard practice for the target's board to activate a poison pill," says Woolery. "The only way to cancel the pill is to lead a proxy battle by proposing your own slate of directors, and winning the majority of the seats. But in many cases, only one-third of the directors are elected at each annual meeting, so it can take two years to win the majority and terminate the pill."

In some cases, adds Woolery, the index funds that often own 25% or more of the shares are more inclined to back management than the likes of individuals and hedge funds, so another tough, unpredictable task is persuading advisors such as ISS that strongly influence the passive vote.

So Musk had to play the hand he was dealt. He’d have to go through the board, but in order to pressure them to take the deal he’d need to convince Twitter’s major shareholders to back him.

Per reports from outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Musk began reaching out to some of Twitter’s active shareholders via video calls to garner support for the deal. (Several of Twitter’s largest active shareholders declined to comment to Fortune.)
...

A few things to note: This was an unsolicited bid, meaning Musk’s side would not have been given access to Twitter’s books, as would happen during due diligence during a traditional acquisition or takeover.
...

Outstanding employee equity-based awards and stock options will be converted to cash once the deal is finalized, per the merger agreement. This may add to employee concerns about the takeover, since it could cut them off from long-term appreciation of Twitter’s stock had it remained public.

Both parties face a $1 billion termination fee—for Twitter if it accepts a rival bid or recommends shareholders vote against the deal or otherwise breaches this agreement; For X Holdings I (i.e. Musk) if he can’t satisfy his financial obligations or meet the closing conditions. Either Twitter or Musk can terminate the fee after Oct. 24, 2022, but this deadline can be extended six months if antitrust or regulatory drag approval out.
...

Yes, it sounds like a big number. But some dealwatchers say it’s low: Tim Pagliara, chief investment officer, CapWealth, a Franklin, Tenn.–based wealth management firm, told Fortune that the number is a red flag, and "is at the low end for a transaction of this size."

"If the breakup fee was $5 billion," he continued, "Twitter's stock price would likely be higher. The breakup fee itself says something about the likelihood of the deal getting done." Pagliara sees the puny divorce levy as a sign "there's not a high level of confidence that a deal will be able to pass the various hurdles ahead, including regulatory approval and Musk's further due diligence of Twitter."

Another problem for Musk, as Fortune reported, are the short-sellers circling Twitter's stock. As of April 28, short positions as a percentage of Twitter's overall float stood at 5.52%, according to S3 Partners, a firm that analyzes such trades. That's not an alarming number, but what pops out is the recent surge in short bets against Twitter.
...

Musk’s bigger problem, of course, is Tesla’s stock price, because his financing depends on it staying elevated. And yes, Tesla’s ardent fans can barely imagine their favorite sliding to $500.
...

From April 26 to 28, Musk sold almost 10 million shares to raise around $9 billion. That cash will provide a big part of the $21 billion in equity he must raise. He could also recruit a private equity partner to furnish the balance. Nothing in the credit agreements blocks Musk from raising the funds by once again, getting a margin loan. But Tesla’s bylaws limit the loan-to-value ratio on any credits that its directors secure to 25%. Hence, if Musk wanted to raise another even $10 billion, he’d have to pledge an additional $40 billion in his shares. Then, about two-third of his holdings would sit fenced-off backing bank loans, greatly increasing the size of the necessary sales, and damage to Tesla’s share price, if he starts getting margin calls.

Musk also faces pressure from the ongoing outlays and costs of owning Twitter. Twitter will be paying in the range of $600 million a year in additional interest on the $13 billion in debt financing. The margin loan will cost Musk over $400 million a year in interest, and he’ll need to fund $3 billion annually in amortization. By the way, the fee for the credits alone comes to $62.5 million.

Besides, Twitter is losing money. In its Q1 earnings announcement, it disclosed an operating loss of $128 million for the quarter and a negative margin of 11%. Over the past four quarters, it’s suffered a shortfall in free cash flow of over $600 million as expenses have far outpaced revenues. It’s possible that Musk, who as of yet hasn’t revealed his plans to improve Twitter’s profitability, will need to cover his new property’s losses from his own resources.
...

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 70.454.216 von faultcode am 10.01.22 13:09:42

"The lies caused the stock to fall."

überall sind nun wieder böse Shorties zu finden:


https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1520017887020429312


Was macht eigentlich sein Fonds, der Future Fund Active ETF:
<Fund Inception -- August 23, 2021>


<kein Total return; $QQQ als NASDAQ100-Proxy>


gut, er hat bislang die Cathie Wood ($ARKK, blau) deutlich abgehängt

[faultcode]

Elon Musk ist und bleibt ein Mobber:


...
https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/elon-musk-kritik-…


Tag: Twitter-Chefjuristin Vijaya Gadde

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.454.710 von faultcode am 29.04.22 10:56:43

Elon Musk: "generate financial returns"

April 29, 2022 at 1:28 a.m. ET
Elon Musk discussed layoffs and monetizing Twitter with bankers during deal negotiations: report
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-discussed-layoff…
...
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reportedly discussed job cuts and ways of monetizing Twitter with bankers during negotiations for his $44 billion takeover of the online news and social networking site.

Without offering specifics, Musk said cutting costs and jobs would help generate returns for Twitter, according to a Thursday report on Bloomberg, which cited sources. As well, Musk floated ideas over monetizing Twitter and increasing cashflow, such as subscription services.

During those discussions, he also said that his track record at Tesla and SpaceX are proof he can transition companies and generate financial returns.