Gedanken zur Lösung des Goldproblemes von Bill Murphy (GATA) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[R.Deutsch]

This is what I think is going on.

For the past year I have asked my GATA delegation colleagues what
could be done to solve the gold problem. That is, say I am the
president of the United States, I know GATA is right,and I have
called the Howes and Venerosos in, seeking suggestions on the best
way to undo the gold mess created by the Clinton administration.

My colleagues have mostly answered, "I don`t know." To illustrate
just how serious and complicated the gold problem is, Frank
Veneroso`s specialty was crisis management. The finance ministers of
Chile and Mexico called on Frank to help them solve economic crises.
He knew just what advice to give them. But on gold he draws a blank.

In recent Midas commentary, I have mentioned some anecdotal
information about the government`s main bank, J.P. Morgan Chase, like
its stopping as many of the June Comex gold deliveries as possible.
GATA also knows that the president, economic adviser Lawrence
Lindsey, and Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill are very aware of the
gold problem. We also know that the volatility in the gold price has
increased dramatically in the past month and that the lease rates
remain high.

My hunch is that to minimize damage in the unwinding of the gold
fraud, the Bush Administration directed that the gold lease rates be
taken to high enough levels to shrink the contango and discourage
forward selling. That would tend to reduce the total number of short
positions. That was the first step.

Step 2 would be to increase the gold volatility in a deliberate
effort to warn market participants that a big gold event is coming
and that to be overly short or too aggressive in writing calls is
liable to be very dangerous, or even fatal, in the very near future.

They probably know that J.P. Morgan Chase has to be bailed out
officially by the U.S. government in some way -- under the "too big
to fail" principle. Their short position is just too big to be
covered. How they will present this to Congress and the American
public is hard to say. What they must be trying to do now is reduce
the collateral damage to other gold shorts that will happen when they
let the gold price go.

With increasing volatility before the gold price takes off, a good
number of gold market players should be scared out their vulnerable
gold short positions, and out of their potentially disastrous written
call option positions. The goal must be to have the Comex open
interest as low as possible when the gold price explodes. And, in
fact, the gold Comex open interest right now is an extremely low
118,677 contracts.

That J.P. Morgan has taken in thousands of Comex gold contracts also
fits, as it will make it harder for longs to squeeze Comex in the
coming gold debacle, or cause an exchange default.

[Sep]

@R.Deutsch

That is what I think is going on, schreibt Murphy in der ersten Zeile,

und dann kommen solche Sachen wie: die Inhaber von Optionen rausdrängen. Ja wenn das so einfach wäre. Und eine Lösung für J.P.Morgan Chase hat er auch nicht. Die gehen halt drauf. Und die anderen shorters müssen halt geängstigt werden, ihre Positionen aufzugeben.

Spricht Murphy noch von einem freien Markt ?

Wenn an diesen Stellen Angst erzeugt wird. wird das einen run der shorter auf tiefere Goldpreise geben.

Ich glaube, der Kampf der Notenbanken ist verloren. Sie wollten einen Teil enthorten, und haben deswegen das Lending in Gang gesetzt, wissend, daß sie das Gold nicht wieder zurückbekommen werden.

Deswegen haben sie die Bilanzierungsvorschriften erweitert in der Art, daß verliehenes Gold nicht sofort als verkauft ausgewiesen werden muß, solange nicht sie, die Notenbanken, das Gold verkauft haben, sondern die Investmenthäuser, die es von ihnen ausgeliehen hatten.

Das hat die Minen in die Zwangslage versetzt, ebenfalls ihre Produktion vorab verkaufen zu müssen, weil in solch einem Umfeld das Gold fällt, der Tagespreis für Gold günstiger ist als der zukünftige Preis.

Auf lange Zeit - soviel war für die Minen absehbar - würde Gold fallen, also verkauften sie ihre Produktion vorab.

Sie nahmen dafür physisches Gold in Anspruch, daß ihnen die Investmenthäuser zur Verfügung stellten, die es ihrerseits von den Notenbanken geliehen hatten.

Aus der laufenden Produktion wurde dann neues Minengold wieder zurückgereicht, über die Investmentbanken an die Notenbanken, aber nicht in dem Maße, wie vorher ausgeliehen.

Es hat sich also über die Jahre ein Abbau von Goldvorräten bei den Notenbanken ergeben, der sich nicht in den Bilanzen der Notenbanken widerspiegelt.

Zusätzlich sind jede Menge, ursprünglich nicht an dem deal beteiligte Parteien in dieses Spiel eingestiegen, und haben zusätzlich Gold geshortet. Teilweise indem sie ebenfalls geliehenes Gold auf den Markt brachten, und dabei erhebliche Spannen in die eigene Tasche wirtschafteten.

Zusätzlich jedoch sind Derivate geschrieben worden auf fallendes Gold, und hier liegt ein besonders brisantes Problem dieses Kreislaufes. Derivate hatten womöglich noch nicht diese Bedeutung, als man sich zur konzertierten Enthortung verabredete. Man hat damals womöglich unterschätzt, was diese Instrumente bewirken. Man hat unterschätzt, in welche Dimensionen man mit diesen Derivaten vorstößt. 1993 und davor war der rush auf die Börsen undenkbar. Der Dow lag bei etwa 3500, das waren noch andere Zeiten.

1993 schoß der Goldpreis hoch, weil Soros zum letzten Male dagegenhielt, ohne sich einer Gefahr durch kollektives Dagegenhalten der Notenbanken austzusetzen.

Es sieht so aus, als ob es noch eine Gelegenheit geben sollte, die shorter mit Eindeckungsmöglichkeiten zu bedienen.

Das Washingtoner Abkommen konnte die Situation beruhigen, was das pysische Gold betrifft. Es wird aber nicht verhindern können, oder wollen, daß Gold nochmals kräftig fallen wird.

Murphy geht zusehr davon aus, daß es eine Lösung geben muß, die Gold nicht weiter fallen läßt.

Jeder Denkansatz, der davon lebt, daß eine bestimmte Variante nicht eintreten wird, ist stark gefährdet, irgendwann dann genau dieser Variante gegenüberzustehen.

SEP

[AlexTheGreat]

Immer wieder lese ich, wenn es um GROSSE Banken geht, die in der Derivaten-Falle sitzen (sollen), das schöne Schlagwort: "Too big to fail!"
Da die Wirkung von Derivaten gemeinhin stark unterschätzt wird, möchte ich an dieser Stelle das neue Schlagwort:

"Too big to bail out!"

in den Raum stellen *grins*.


Einen schönen Wochenanfang wünscht

AlexTheGreat

[jeffery2]

@Alex, die Sphinx der FED sagte ja auch schon man "not too big to fail", das bringt die Investmentbanker zwar nicht aus der Ruhe, weil AG alles versuchen wird seine Spiessgesellen zu retten. Zeigt aber, dass ihm garnicht wohl bei dem Spiel ist. @sep, wenn nun die Goldprodzenten, wie bekannt, die Hedges unbedingt zurückfahren oder sogar schon ganz glattgestellt haben, ist es doch im Umkehrschluss des obengesagten ein Indiz dafür, dass man weiss der Goldpreis wird steigen, sowie man wusste er wird fallen. Gehe einfach mal davon aus, dass ein gutes Managment so etwas schon begreift. MfG J2

[jeffery2]

@Hans Deutsch, mal was interessantes für Dich in "fallstreet" aufgeschnappt, trau mich aber nicht das reinzustellen, fürchte es klappt nicht. www.salon.com/tech/wire/2001/06/17/gold/index.htm/ Thema Internetgold. Schau doch mal rein. Gruss J2

[R.Deutsch]

danke J2 Hier der Artikel interessiert vielleicht.

Cyber currencies spawn 21st-century
gold rush, money-laundering fears

By Marcelo Ballve
The Associated Press
June 18, 2001

Puerto Rico -- In a strange quirk of fate, the Internet
may be breathing new life into an ancient currency --
gold.

Several Caribbean-based Web companies have begun
storing gold in places like Dubai, Zurich and London
and allowing Internet users to own pieces of the metal
and use it as an online currency.

So instead of relying on credit cards -- the dominant
online payment system -- people can opt for bullion-
based cybermoney, which purveyors tout as a quick,
cheap and private alternative.

An array of Web businesses already accept it.

"We`ve got people using it all over the world," said
James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, a Bahamas-based
online payment business.

The advent of globe-spanning e-commerce has allowed
transactions to skip easily across national boundaries,
making for easy shopping for anyone with a modem. But
most transactions in cyberspace still involve national
currencies, fraught with risk of fluctuating exchange
rates and the cost of bank commissions.

Various Internet entrepreneurs have attempted, without
success, to devise digital payment schemes that would
simplify online purchasing.

The creators of digital gold believe they have the
answer.

Their currency offers an international purchasing
solution that economists have only begun to
contemplate: a stable, cashless currency that offers
instant purchasing power across borders.

Digital currency holders can use the Internet`s
anonymity to buy things online, send money to other
users or simply exchange national currencies into
cyber-gold.

But the ease of hiding ill-gotten gains in virtual gold
scares financial crime fighters and regulators, who
struggle to track shady offshore banks and money
launderers.

"There is tremendous potential in using these products
for money laundering," said US Secret Service agent
Eddy Lugo, who works for the Treasury Department in
Washington, D.C.

The speed and volume of transactions with digital
currency has investigators like Lugo worried the
industry will become ungovernable. So far, no digital
currency business has established bank-like standards
for reporting suspicious activity, Lugo said.

For their part, the digital currency entrepreneurs say
they seek legitimate customers who wish to make large,
low-fee online international transactions.

To set up an account at a digital currency Web site,
customers need only register with an e-mail address and
password. They then go to a currency exchange Web site
that converts payments via bank draft or wire transfer
to a gram-equivalent in virtual gold. That amount is
credited to their account.

Digital gold owners then patronize sites equipped to
receive it such as Bananagold.com, where you can use
its interface to shop at Amazon.com and spend 1.7
ounces of gold to buy a $450 Palm Pilot. At other
sites, the digital currency can be used to dabble in
Asian stock markets -- or play casino games.

The idea of independent currencies free of government
control is not new.

Neither are the accompanying fears of financial crime.

In the mid-19th century, as many as 8,000 US state-
chartered banks issued private currency that was often
redeemable for gold or silver. But some notes were
bogus or circulated by shadowy banks that folded
overnight. Forgeries were widespread.

After the Civil War, the government set standards for a
national currency that became the US dollar.

Worldwide, other governments snuffed out privately
issued bank notes and replaced them with money printed
by central banks and managed by monetary boards like
the US Federal Reserve.

But now, experts have pondered the resurgence of what
might be called private money. Mervyn King, deputy
governor of the Bank of England, thinks the Internet
could provide the catalyst for an end to the state
monopoly on issuing currency.

"Just like every country had its own national currency,
the Internet needs its own money too," Turk said.

For the past 30 years, gold`s importance in
international commerce has dwindled. Many currencies
used to be freely convertible into gold. But once the
powerful US dollar abandoned this gold standard in
1971, paper currencies based on floating exchange rates
became the main means of international exchange.

When the World Wide Web began to blossom, ideas were
hatched for anonymous digital currencies. Two
businesses, Digicash and Cybercash, failed to sell
online merchants on the idea. Both companies have filed
for bankruptcy.

The founders of the digital gold ventures believe their
products will eventually succeed. Humans have used gold
through the ages and will do so again, they argue.

"What we offer is gold you can actually use," explains
E-gold`s founder, retired physician Douglas Jackson of
Melbourne, Fla.

Launched in 1996 and registered on the Caribbean island
of Nevis, E-gold claims more than 200,000 accounts and
more than $14 million of currency in circulation.

A third company, Standard Reserve, is based in the
British Virgin Islands.

For now, most consumers will continue to use credit
cards for online purchases, argues Kenneth Clemmer, an
analyst at Forrester Research.

"Right now we`re just a speck in the world economy,"
admits GoldMoney`s Turk, a former Chase Manhattan
international banker. "But I`m optimistic that we will
grow."

The three main metal-backed digital currency issuers
say they like the Caribbean`s stability and a
hospitable business environment free of red tape and
legal hassles.

Those include secretive banking laws and no-tax or low-
tax regimes, and the opportunity to register companies
whose only presence may be a sheaf of papers in a law
office.

The digital currency issuers charge a small fraction
for transactions or for gold storage.

At E-gold recently, the fee was 0.0018 ounces of gold
for a 20-ounce gold purchase.

The companies say the virtual gold is backed by gold
bars stashed in their vaults and verified by chartered
accountants. E-gold, for example, posts a report on its
site by Ernst and Young.

The actual computers that host the accounts may be
elsewhere, though. GoldMoney, for example, contracts
South Africa`s Dimension Data to run its web site from
the island of Jersey in the English Channel. E-gold`s
system is operated by a partner company in Florida.

As business grows, so does scrutiny.

On Nevis, Finance Secretary Laurie Lawrence said
authorities who registered E-gold as an offshore
company still were trying "to get a handle" on how
digital currency operates and whether to regulate it.
The government of St. Kitts and Nevis is drafting its
first money-laundering regulations.

Both E-gold and GoldMoney said they are developing
safeguards, including certificates that aim to identify
clients as legitimate depositors with a clean financial
record.

And because the currencies are tracked by computer, all
transactions are recorded and traceable to an Internet
service provider.

"You can`t build a solid business by catering to
criminals," said Jackson.

The US Secret Service, which tracks financial crimes,
said it could not confirm money laundering was
occurring with digital currencies, but added that the
currencies were "wide open" to this type of crime.

On the Net:

http://www.icegold.com

http://www.e-gold.com

http://www.goldmoney.com