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► Thai Petrochemical ◄ (Seite 8)

eröffnet am 30.01.04 17:25:01 von
kosto1929

neuester Beitrag 13.09.04 10:52:09 von
Icebear99
Beiträge: 75
ID: 815.516
Aufrufe heute: 0
Gesamt: 2.026

11.04.05
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Neuigkeiten zur THAI PETROCHEM.-FG Aktie


Beitrag schreiben Ansicht: Normal
Avatar
Reimundst
schrieb am 25.08.04 01:25:59
Beitrag Nr. 71 (14.131.095)
Hallo zusammen.
Es hat sich einiges getan bei TPI.
Die Hompage ist nun aktuell.
Das ist nicht der einziege grund.
Ich habe mir über Wochen den Handel von TPI,CPF,ITD angesehen, diereckt in Thailand.
Dann hat TPI Zahlen gebracht, die ich auf der seite der Thaibörse noch nicht gesehen habe, sondern als Pop Up auf der seite von TPI, und die lassen einiges erhoffen.
Haben Ihre Gewinne gesteigert, was im Kurs nicht eingepreist ist.
Der heutige Handel läst ebenfalls auf weiter steigende Kurse hoffen.
5Min vor Handelsschluß ging TPI erst hoch, um dan in der Auktion auf Tageshoch zu schließen.
Das Volumen stieg zum schluß sehr stark an.
Zum Schulden problem.
Ich denke das das vom Tisch ist,nach der damaliegen ausetzung.
Sehe im gesamten Thaimarkt viel potential.
Bin sehr zufrieden mit dem Invest.
Nach meiner berechnung müßsten wir die 9Bhat sehr bald wiedersehen.
TPI müßte meiner meinung nach vom hohen öl preis profitiert haben, zumal Gas auch anzieht.

Wünsche allen eine Glückliche Hand und gute Gewinne.
MFG Reimund
Avatar
Icebear99
schrieb am 25.08.04 10:29:38
Beitrag Nr. 72 (14.132.468)
Also die Inet seite ist noch genauso wie vor einem Jahr.
Und aktuell naja...

Die Zahlen, die rausgebracht wurden, die sind schon veröffentlicht, deswegen wurde ja auch tpi einen Tag ausgesetzt.

Der Handel in Thailand...wo sind die Umsätze bei TPI?
die waren früher um das 20fache höher.

Und was ist mit den neuen Aktien für weniger als 3 Baht?!

Ich hoffe mal auf gute Partnerschaft mit PTT.

Die Zahlen an sich waren nicht schlecht.

Hoffen wir das beste

Gruß Eisi
Avatar
Reimundst
schrieb am 25.08.04 12:56:40
Beitrag Nr. 73 (14.133.879)
Hi Eisi
Nach diesen Zahlen, wurde TPI nicht ausgesezt.
Ich stell sie mal rein.
Thai Petrochemical Industry Public Company Limited
Fully Integrated Petrochemical Complex
M9R
Financial Restructuring Plan
August’2004
Pro-Forma Financial Statements-Post Debt Restructuring
Executive Summary
1. Reduction of existing Debt US$ 2,640m to US$ 500 million, the Reduced Debt of US$ 2,140 million
(US$2,640 minus US$500) plus Accrued Interest US$752m (for year 1998-2000) totaling US$ 2,892m are
converted into equity @ THB 20 per share i.e. 5,899 million shares (75% stake) to replace the existing
Creditors’ equity which was obtained unfairly @ THB 5.52 per share, in exchange for Accrued interest
during year 1998 to 2000. Write-off of accrued interest (on Tier 2) of around US$233m.
2. Interest Payment @ 3.50% p.a. i.e. MLR minus 1% (THB loan) and LIBOR plus 1% (FC loan)
3. Repayment schedule 4 years (US$125m per year), as per projections repayment (with cash sweep)
turns out to be 2 years
4. Refinery operation are taken at 184,000 bpd i.e. Potential of more throughput of 31,000 bpd is
available
5. Compulsory to buy-back the new shares (5,899m) by major shareholders and Company in 4 years at
Issue price (THB 20) plus Interest at MLR
-
6. IFC and Other Creditors can have option to Covert debt into Zero Coupon Convertible Bond maturing
in 4 years with 6% interest (p.a.) and option to convert into Equity share @ THB 50 per share
7. Post Debt restructuring the Company becomes Investment grade with average (4years) ICR 52.2 and
DSCR 3.6 and Equity value becomes THB 22 per share by DCF method. 1
Visit www.tpipolene.com OR www.prachai.com
TPI AND 6 SUBSIDIARIES CO.
Income Statement
Unit : `000 Baht
Crude consumption (bbl per day) 128K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average
Total (2003) Total (2004) Total (2005) Total (2006) Total (2007) Total (2008) Total (2009) Total (2010) Total (2011) Total (2012) Total (2013) 2004-13
Exchange Rate (Baht/USD) 41.58 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
Sales Revenues
Polymers 25,836,052 31,748,715 37,349,748 30,480,081 26,372,848 23,083,971 21,008,286 24,979,737 31,145,246 40,059,287 32,754,083 29,898,200
Lube Products 10,158,060 7,120,491 7,196,341 7,273,094 7,351,992 7,429,987 7,379,314 7,591,565 7,673,360 7,755,359 7,839,328 7,461,083
Aromatics 3,766,001 3,821,152 3,917,923 3,937,145 3,949,424 3,966,190 3,991,929 4,060,505 4,023,430 4,127,900 3,960,710 3,975,631
Solvent 810,026 529,848 545,976 551,054 556,131 561,358 566,585 571,961 577,188 582,713 588,089 563,090
Refined Products 42,825,715 60,933,144 62,202,547 62,708,136 63,224,480 63,738,053 64,268,048 64,790,629 65,324,333 65,870,600 66,407,091 63,946,706
Olefin Products 4,778,765 8,014,985 8,792,149 8,015,099 7,520,156 7,101,999 6,876,008 7,444,475 8,279,189 9,295,455 8,520,503 7,986,002
Polyol Products 699,387 578,811 607,751 638,139 670,046 703,548 738,725 775,662 814,445 855,167 897,925 728,022
Total Sales Revenues 88,874,007 112,747,147 120,612,436 113,602,748 109,645,077 106,585,107 104,828,895 110,214,534 117,837,191 128,546,481 120,967,730 114,558,735
Other Revenues 2,740,674 3,208,942 3,398,211 3,338,946 3,319,338 3,312,229 3,322,803 3,424,850 3,556,483 3,728,496 3,671,002 3,428,130
Transportation 146,767 127,663 136,568 128,631 124,150 120,685 118,697 124,795 133,426 145,552 136,971 129,714
Electricity & steam & demin water 1,604,961 1,457,432 1,466,173 1,475,001 1,483,917 1,492,922 1,502,017 1,511,203 1,520,482 1,529,852 1,539,317 1,497,832
Port & Storage & other sales 618,198 1,234,562 1,386,720 1,306,127 1,260,625 1,225,443 1,205,251 1,267,172 1,354,812 1,477,940 1,390,805 1,310,946
Others Revenue i.e minimart 370,748 389,285 408,750 429,187 450,646 473,179 496,838 521,680 547,764 575,152 603,909 489,639
Total Revenues 91,614,681 115,956,089 124,010,646 116,941,695 112,964,415 109,897,336 108,151,699 113,639,384 121,393,674 132,274,977 124,638,732 117,986,865
Cost of Goods Sold 80,318,392 94,545,383 95,736,566 95,346,890 95,592,257 95,856,814 96,406,761 98,137,621 100,332,821 103,011,224 102,770,006 97,773,634
Raw material - Exclude Polyol Products 63,140,845 74,063,297 75,467,294 74,871,075 74,858,596 74,849,461 75,093,220 76,431,549 78,189,088 80,382,448 79,808,384 76,401,441
Raw material - Polyol Products 414,500 423,602 444,782 467,021 490,372 514,891 540,636 567,667 596,051 625,853 657,146 532,802
Excise Tax 8,251,306 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540 10,143,540
Chemical and other utilities 2,526,057 4,070,793 3,606,923 3,578,427 3,577,831 3,577,394 3,589,045 3,653,009 3,737,010 3,841,841 3,814,404 3,704,668
Repair and maintenance 849,055 1,110,927 1,132,183 1,123,622 1,123,784 1,124,014 1,128,033 1,148,397 1,175,033 1,208,190 1,200,095 1,147,428
Electricity & Steam purchase 1,554,890 1,223,619 1,235,856 1,248,214 1,260,696 1,273,303 1,286,036 1,298,897 1,311,886 1,325,004 1,338,254 1,280,177
Insurance Premium 623,442 607,065 634,142 662,573 692,425 723,770 756,682 791,240 827,525 865,625 905,630 746,668
Salary and Wages 1,977,178 1,999,028 2,138,960 2,288,687 2,448,895 2,620,318 2,803,740 3,000,002 3,210,002 3,434,702 3,675,131 2,761,947
RTT Tank Rental 421,586 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000 316,000
Other overheads 559,534 587,510 616,886 647,730 680,117 714,122 749,829 787,320 826,686 868,020 911,421 738,964
Gross Profit 11,296,289 21,410,706 28,274,081 21,594,804 17,372,158 14,040,522 11,744,938 15,501,764 21,060,853 29,263,753 21,868,726 20,213,231
Cash Gross Profit Margin (%) 12% 18% 23% 18% 15% 13% 11% 14% 17% 22% 18% 17%
Selling and Administrative Expense
Salary and wages 853,060 877,052 938,446 1,004,137 1,074,426 1,149,636 1,230,111 1,316,219 1,408,354 1,506,939 1,612,424 1,211,774
Selling expense 891,892 1,063,659 1,065,456 1,067,343 1,069,325 1,071,405 1,073,589 1,075,883 1,078,291 1,080,820 1,083,475 1,072,925
Selling expense - Polyol Products 12,508 11,661 12,244 12,856 13,499 14,174 14,883 15,627 16,408 17,229 18,090 14,667
Insurance - H/O 18,689 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350 30,350
Bank Charge 74,300 87,153 88,805 88,103 88,089 88,078 88,365 89,940 92,008 94,589 93,913 89,904
Other admin. exp. 535,427 556,788 584,628 613,859 644,552 676,780 710,619 746,150 783,457 822,630 863,761 700,322
Total 2,385,876 2,626,664 2,719,929 2,816,649 2,920,241 3,030,423 3,147,916 3,274,168 3,408,868 3,552,556 3,702,014 3,119,943
EBITDA (`000 Baht) 8,910,413 18,784,043 25,554,152 18,778,155 14,451,917 11,010,099 8,597,021 12,227,596 17,651,985 25,711,197 18,166,712 17,093,288
EBITDA Margin (%) 10% 16% 21% 16% 13% 10% 8% 11% 15% 19% 15% 14%
EBITDA (`000 USD) 214,271 469,601 638,854 469,454 361,298 275,252 214,926 305,690 441,300 642,780 454,168 427,332
Act. EBITDA 2001 = 119,120 (`000 USD)
Depreciation & Amortization - Plant 4,199,359 3,170,007 3,261,115 3,350,552 3,438,050 3,523,334 3,606,126 3,686,146 3,763,114 3,836,744 3,906,754 3,554,194
Depreciation & Amortization - H/O 154,706 159,347 164,127 169,051 174,123 179,346 184,727 190,268 195,976 201,856 207,911 182,673
Loss from impairment of assets 35,481 (14,312,227) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1,431,223)
Doubtful account (48,909) (9,124,476) 419 419 419 419 419 419 419 419 419 (912,070)
Loss from LCM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT (`000 Baht) 4,569,776 38,891,391 22,128,491 15,258,132 10,839,325 7,306,999 4,805,750 8,350,762 13,692,476 21,672,178 14,051,627 15,699,713
Guarantee Fee + Front-end Fee 18,485 19,409 20,380 21,399 22,469 23,592 24,772 26,010 27,311 28,676 30,110 24,413
Restructuring Cost 488,195 126,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12,600
Penalty Charge of Port License 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest Income (72,973) (71,070) (71,070) (1,183,160) (1,602,657) (1,897,729) (2,127,500) (2,436,959) (2,872,061) (3,488,439) (3,961,285) (1,971,193)
Interest + Tax - W/C 152,093 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041 126,041
Interest + Tax - New W/C 0 182,217 185,187 185,187 185,187 185,187 185,187 185,187 185,187 185,187 185,187 184,890
Interest + Tax - Tier 1 3,851,621 243,934 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24,393
Interest + Tax - Tier 2 2,497,949 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F/X realized loss / (gain) (699,341) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F/X unrealized loss / (gain) (4,548,622) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
(Gain) / Loss from sales of Investment / As 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Financial Exp. 1,687,407 626,532 260,538 (850,533) (1,268,961) (1,562,909) (1,791,500) (2,099,721) (2,533,522) (3,148,535) (3,619,947) (1,598,856)
Equity in (gain) / loss of subsidiaries 24,112
Net Profit before extra item 2,858,257 38,264,860 21,867,953 16,108,666 12,108,286 8,869,908 6,597,250 10,450,483 16,225,998 24,820,713 17,671,574 17,298,569
Income Tax 766 0 0 0 328,529 605,316 160,660 1,191,735 2,969,912 5,725,392 3,588,639 1,457,018
Extra item - reverse int. exp. on default 0
Extra item - (gain) on debt restructuring 311,390 (94,730,132)
Net Profit / (Loss) 2,546,102 132,994,992 21,867,953 16,108,666 11,779,757 8,264,593 6,436,590 9,258,748 13,256,086 19,095,321 14,082,935 25,314,564
2-3
TPI AND 6 SUBSIDIARIES CO.
Balance Sheet
Unit : `000 Baht
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year 2003 Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 Year 2013
Assets
Current Assets
Cash on hand and in banks 2,357,711 4,608,023 20,150,123 37,128,824 49,409,546 58,059,543 64,806,867 73,878,332 86,614,148 104,638,786 118,475,421
Short term investment 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966 24,966
Notes Receivable 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852 937,852
Accounts and Notes Receivable - others 2,451,009 2,926,886 3,359,840 2,938,078 2,693,724 2,501,615 2,388,074 2,698,488 3,143,621 3,759,345 3,312,697
Accounts and Notes Receivable - related co. 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323 554,323
Allowance for Doubtful A/C (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816) (194,816)
Loan to related co. 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975 6,765,975
Allowance for Doubtful A/C (9,128,164) (3,688) (4,107) (4,527) (4,946) (5,365) (5,785) (6,204) (6,623) (7,042) (7,462)
Advance to related co. 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624 948,624
Other Receivable 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010 2,078,010
Inventory 18,868,480 19,855,366 19,970,082 19,921,671 19,921,906 19,921,807 19,942,052 20,051,615 20,194,730 20,373,617 20,327,076
Other Current Assets 755,606 757,306 759,006 760,706 762,406 764,106 765,806 767,506 769,206 770,906 772,606
Accrued Interest Rcvd. 3,334,169 3,388,630 3,443,092 4,609,644 6,195,693 8,076,814 10,187,705 12,608,057 15,463,509 18,935,341 22,880,017
Total Current Assets 29,753,745 42,647,458 58,792,970 76,469,331 90,093,264 100,433,454 109,199,654 121,112,728 137,293,526 159,585,887 176,875,292
Investment and loans 13,872,415 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220 19,059,220
Property , Plant and equipment (net) 68,648,134 75,922,638 74,531,537 72,914,903 71,069,702 68,993,355 66,683,753 64,139,280 61,358,830 58,341,827 55,088,237
Appraisal increment on assets 26,615,791 25,117,791 23,619,791 22,121,791 20,623,791 19,125,791 17,627,791 16,129,791 14,631,791 13,133,791 11,635,791
Other Assets 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090 2,082,090
Total Assets 140,972,175 164,829,197 178,085,608 192,647,335 202,928,067 209,693,910 214,652,508 222,523,109 234,425,458 252,202,815 264,740,630
Liabilities and Shareholders` Equity
Current Liabilities
Bank overdraft 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622 238,622
Loans from banks 3,264,117 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370 3,437,370
Account and Notes Payable - others 6,481,864 6,500,689 6,632,494 6,583,555 6,582,531 6,581,781 6,601,789 6,711,642 6,855,905 7,035,941 6,988,820
Account and Notes Payable - related co. 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784 298,784
Other Payable 809,457 678,494 547,530 547,530 547,530 547,530 547,530 547,530 547,530 547,530 547,530
Advance from related co. 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240 110,240
Accrued Interest Payable - others 9,339,817 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accrued Interest Payable - related co. 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899 22,899
Current portion of L/T debts 85,336 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Liabilities 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358 1,922,358
Total Current Liabilities 22,573,494 13,209,456 13,210,298 13,161,359 13,160,334 13,159,585 13,179,593 13,289,446 13,433,708 13,613,744 13,566,624
Other non-current liabilities 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854 269,854
L/T Liabilities 105,390,316 7,114,383 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 128,233,664 20,593,693 13,480,152 13,431,213 13,430,188 13,429,439 13,449,447 13,559,300 13,703,562 13,883,598 13,836,478
Minority Interest 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Shareholders` Equity
Capital 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112
Premium on share capital (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531)
Premium from sales of share exceeding par value 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839
Premium on change in % of holding in asso. Co. 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000
Unrealized increment on land & bldg. appraisal 6,042,706 5,836,706 5,630,706 5,424,706 5,218,706 5,012,706 4,806,706 4,600,706 4,394,706 4,188,706 3,982,706
Unrealized increment on machinery appraisal 20,572,148 19,280,148 17,988,148 16,696,148 15,404,148 14,112,148 12,820,148 11,528,148 10,236,148 8,944,148 7,652,148
Unrealized increment of assets of asso. Co. 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945 13,073,945
Unrealized gain / (loss) on M/K security 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486 8,935,486
Retained Earnings
Appropriated - Statutory Reserve 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000
Unappropriated (86,359,219) 46,635,774 68,503,727 84,612,392 96,392,149 104,656,741 111,093,331 120,352,079 133,608,165 152,703,487 166,786,422
Own shares held by Subsidiaries (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020) (204,020)
Total Shareholders` Equity 12,738,511 144,235,504 164,605,457 179,216,122 189,497,879 196,264,471 201,203,061 208,963,809 220,721,895 238,319,217 250,904,152
Total Liabilities & Shareholders` Equity 140,972,176 164,829,197 178,085,608 192,647,335 202,928,067 209,693,910 214,652,508 222,523,109 234,425,458 252,202,815 264,740,630
4
TPI AND 6 SUBSIDIARIES CO.
Cash Flow Statement (Indirect Cash Flow)
Unit : `000 Baht
Crude consumption bbl per day 128K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K 184K
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total (2003) Total (2004) Total (2005) Total (2006) Total (2007) Total (2008) Total (2009) Total (2010) Total (2011) Total (2012) Total (2013)
Exchange Rate (Baht/USD) 41.58 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
EBITDA 8,910,413 18,784,043 25,554,152 18,778,155 14,451,917 11,010,099 8,597,021 12,227,596 17,651,985 25,711,197 18,166,712
Cash flow from operating activities
Accounts and notes receivable 522,144 (475,877) (432,953) 421,762 244,354 192,109 113,541 (310,414) (445,132) (615,724) 446,648
Inventories (4,886,245) (986,886) (114,716) 48,411 (235) 99 (20,245) (109,563) (143,116) (178,886) 46,540
Other Receivable 192,474 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Assets 357,748 (1,700) (1,700) (1,700) (1,700) (1,700) (1,700) (1,700) (1,700) (1,700) (1,700)
Accounts and notes payable 1,147,926 18,825 131,805 (48,939) (1,024) (750) 20,008 109,853 144,263 180,036 (47,120)
Other payables 137,831 (130,964) (130,964) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other current liablities 231,692 (19,409) (20,380) (21,399) (22,469) (23,592) (24,772) (26,010) (27,311) (28,676) (30,110)
Net cash flow from operating activities 6,613,983 17,188,033 24,985,244 19,176,290 14,670,843 11,176,265 8,683,854 11,889,762 17,178,989 25,066,246 18,580,970
Cash flow from investing activities
Short-Term investments 365,714 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Loan to related parties (15,734) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Advance to related parties (109,629) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Property, plant and equipment (154,012) (1,563,772) (2,034,140) (1,902,969) (1,766,972) (1,626,333) (1,481,250) (1,331,942) (1,178,640) (1,021,596) (861,076)
Other assets 26,846 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Long-Term Investments 14,432 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash flow from investing activities 127,617 (1,563,772) (2,034,140) (1,902,969) (1,766,972) (1,626,333) (1,481,250) (1,331,942) (1,178,640) (1,021,596) (861,076)
Cash flow from financing activities
Loans from Banks (958,513) 173,253 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gain / (loss) from forward , swap 90,093 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest Receipt 13,914 16,608 16,608 16,608 16,608 16,608 16,608 16,608 16,608 16,608 16,608
Interest Payment - for operation (122,566) (308,258) (311,228) (311,228) (311,228) (311,228) (311,228) (311,228) (311,228) (311,228) (311,228)
Interest Payment - for Tier 1 (2,587,906) (243,934) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest Payment - for Tier 1 (W/H) (44,460) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income Tax 0 0 0 0 (328,529) (605,316) (160,660) (1,191,735) (2,969,912) (5,725,392) (3,588,639)
Restructuring Fee & Committee Fee (419,973) (126,000) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Loan from related parties (142,036) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Debt Repurchase 0 (428,008) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Long-Term Loans (3,419,742) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Share Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Premium on share capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash flow from financing activities (7,591,189) (916,339) (294,620) (294,620) (623,149) (899,936) (455,280) (1,486,355) (3,264,532) (6,020,012) (3,883,259)
Increase (decrease) in cash (849,589) 14,707,923 22,656,483 16,978,701 12,280,721 8,649,997 6,747,324 9,071,465 12,735,817 18,024,638 13,836,635
Beginning Cash 3,207,299 2,357,710 4,608,023 20,150,123 37,128,824 49,409,546 58,059,543 64,806,867 73,878,332 86,614,148 104,638,786
Principal Repayment 0 (12,457,609) (7,114,383) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ending Cash 2,357,710 4,608,023 20,150,123 37,128,824 49,409,546 58,059,543 64,806,867 73,878,332 86,614,148 104,638,786 118,475,421
5
THAI PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
Refinery at 184,000 bpd
Financial Ratios
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2002 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
EP 2003 2004 2005 2006 # 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(mio baht)
Outstanding Debt 118,864 105,390 7,114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shareholders Equity 964 12,739 144,236 164,605 179,216 189,498 196,264 201,203 208,964 220,722 238,319 250,904
Revenue 70,308 91,615 115,956 124,011 116,942 112,964 109,897 108,152 113,639 121,394 132,275 124,639
EBITDA 7,134 8,910 18,784 25,554 18,778 14,452 11,010 8,597 12,228 17,652 25,711 18,167
Interest 6,874 6,502 552 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311
Net Profit (4,216) 2,546 132,995 21,868 16,109 11,780 8,265 6,437 9,259 13,256 19,095 14,083
EBITDA % 10.1 9.7 16.2 20.6 16.1 12.8 10.0 7.9 10.8 14.5 19.4 14.6
Net Profit % (6.0) 2.8 114.7 17.6 13.8 10.4 7.5 6.0 8.1 10.9 14.4 11.3
Debt / Equity 123.26 8.27 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Interest Coverage Ratio 1.04 1.37 34.02 82.11 60.34 46.44 35.38 27.62 39.29 56.72 82.61 58.37
(EBITDA/Interest payments)
Debt Service Coverage Ratio 3.38 4.81 60.34 46.44 35.38 27.62 39.29 56.72 82.61 58.37
EBITDA/(Repayments+Interest payments)
(4 Years Repayment)
Return on equity (ROE) 22.3% 10.3% 13.3% 9.0% 6.2% 4.2% 3.2% 4.4% 6.0% 8.0% 5.6%
Return on investment (ROI) 2.4% 9.8% 13.3% 9.0% 6.2% 4.2% 3.2% 4.4% 6.0% 8.0% 5.6%
Price Earning Ratio (P/E) 60.47 10.38 7.04 9.56 13.07 18.63 23.92 16.63 11.61 8.06 10.93
Cash Price Earning Ratio (CPER) 63.91 8.44 6.10 8.34 10.89 14.39 18.58 12.92 8.88 6.06 8.62
Cash EPS (baht per share) 0.31 2.32 3.22 2.35 1.80 1.36 1.06 1.52 2.21 3.24 2.27
EPS (baht per share) (0.54) 0.32 1.89 2.79 2.05 1.50 1.05 0.82 1.18 1.69 2.43 1.79
EPS (USD per share) (0.01) 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.04
Book Value (baht per share) 0.12 1.62 18.38 20.97 22.83 24.14 25.01 25.63 26.62 28.12 30.36 31.97
Book Value (USD per share) 0.00 0.04 0.46 0.52 0.57 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.70 0.76 0.80
% Increase in Book Value 1220.9% 1032.3% 14.1% 8.9% 5.7% 3.6% 2.5% 3.9% 5.6% 8.0% 5.3%
Equity Value (baht per share) by DCF Method 22.30
Increase in Share Capital
New Equity (Mio USD) 2,893 # The DSCR is going up due to all Long Term Debt is paid off by year 2005
New Equity (Mio Baht) 115,703
Price Per Share (USD) 0.49
Price Per Share (Baht) 19.61
No. of New Shares (mio) 5,899 75%
No. of Existing Shares (mio) 1,950 25%
Total No. of Shares (mio) 7,849 100%
Exchange Rate 1 USD=Bt 40 40.00
6
Debt - Equity Movement
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
million USD
Shareholders Equity Outstanding Debt
Sales -EBITDA Trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
EBITDA - million USD
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
SALES - million USD
EBITDA Sales Revenue
7
THAI PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
Refinery at 184,000 bpd
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
(dollars in millions, except per share data)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EBITDA 469.6 638.9 469.5 361.3 275.3 214.9 305.7 441.3 642.8 454.2
Less: Depreciation (83.2) (85.6) (88.0) (90.3) (92.6) (94.8) (96.9) (99.0) (101.0) (102.9)
EBITA 386.4 553.2 381.5 271.0 182.7 120.2 208.8 342.3 541.8 351.3
Less: Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 (36.4) (40.6) (26.7) (52.2) (95.9) (162.5) (105.4)
Tax-effected EBITA 386.4 553.2 381.5 234.6 142.1 93.5 156.6 246.5 379.3 245.9
Plus: Depreciation 83.2 85.6 88.0 90.3 92.6 94.8 96.9 99.0 101.0 102.9
Less: Capital Expenditures (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (72.9)
Less: Changes in Working Capital (57.4) (39.9) (14.2) 10.0 5.5 4.2 2.2 (8.4) (11.8) (16.1)
Free Cash Flow 382.2 569.0 425.2 304.8 210.2 162.4 225.7 307.0 438.4 259.8
Perpetuity Method
A + B = C
Discounted (a) PV of Terminal Value (Average FCF 2004 -2013)
Discount Rate Cash Flows Discount Rate at a Perpetual Growth Rate of (c)
(Pre Tax) (2004-2013) (After Tax) 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
5% 2,594 5% 5,961 9,029 18,233 8,555 11,623 20,827
6% 2,484 6% 4,066 5,475 8,292 6,550 7,959 10,776
7% 2,382 7% 2,961 3,738 5,032 5,343 6,120 7,414
8% 2,286 8% 2,249 2,725 3,439 4,535 5,011 5,725
9% 2,196 9% 1,758 2,071 2,509 3,954 4,267 4,705
10% 2,113 10% 1,404 1,620 1,908 3,516 3,733 4,021
Exit Multiple Method
A + B = C
Discounted (a) PV of Terminal Value as a
Discount Rate Cash Flows Discount Rate Multiple of Average EBITDA (2004 - 2013) (b) Firm Value
(2004-2013) (After Tax) 13 14 15 13 14 15
5% 2,594 5% 3,410 3,673 3,935 6,005 6,267 6,529
6% 2,484 6% 3,102 3,341 3,579 5,586 5,825 6,064
7% 2,382 7% 2,824 3,041 3,259 5,206 5,423 5,640
8% 2,286 8% 2,573 2,771 2,969 4,859 5,057 5,255
9% 2,196 9% 2,347 2,527 2,708 4,543 4,724 4,904
10% 2,113 10% 2,142 2,307 2,471 4,254 4,419 4,584
(a) Present values calculated as of end of December 2003
(b) Discounted 10 years; based on ten-year average EBITDA
(c) Discounted 10 years; based on ten-year average Free Cash Flow
EBITDA Multiple Method (Using 10-year Average EBITDA from 2004 - 2013)
Firm Value
13 14 15
(4) Capital Expenditure projections not reasonable 5,555 5,983 6,410
Projected FYE December 31,
Firm Value
8
Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc.
Refinery at 184,000 bpd
Share Price Valuation
Investment Book Value Book Value
Investments 347 347 10,000 20,000
Loan to Ass.co. 304 304 8,700 7,500
Total 651 651
Avg. EBITDA 427 427
Exchange Rate 40.0
70%
Debt as of 31/12/03 (@70%) (m USD) 1,844
Perpetuity Method Equity Value using Averages
US$ Baht
Theoretical Value per share 0.62 24.82
Theoretical Total Equity Value 4,871
Discount Rate
2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Debt 1,844 4.00% 74
5% 7,362 10,430 19,634 0.94 1.33 2.50 Equity 4,871 8.97% 437
6% 5,357 6,766 9,583 0.68 0.86 1.22 Total 6,715 7.61%
7% 4,150 4,927 6,221 0.53 0.63 0.79 Total Existing Shares 7,849
8% 3,341 3,818 4,532 0.43 0.49 0.58
9% 2,761 3,074 3,512 0.35 0.39 0.45
10% 2,323 2,540 2,828 0.30 0.32 0.36 Value Convergence under Exit Multiple Method
Average 0.54 0.67 0.98 US$ Baht
0.73 Theoretical Value per share 0.52 20.77
Theoretical Total Equity Value 4,076
Exit Multiple Method
Debt 1,844 4.00% 74
Equity 4,076 8.97% 366
Discount Rate Total 5,920 7.42%
13 14 15 13 14 15 Total Existing Shares 7,849
5% 4,812 5,074 5,336 0.61 0.65 0.68
6% 4,393 4,632 4,870 0.56 0.59 0.62
7% 4,013 4,230 4,447 0.51 0.54 0.57
8% 3,666 3,864 4,062 0.47 0.49 0.52 Value Convergence under Perpetuity Method
9% 3,350 3,530 3,711 0.43 0.45 0.47 US$ Baht
10% 3,061 3,226 3,391 0.39 0.41 0.43 Theoretical Value per share 0.56 22.30
Average 0.49 0.52 0.55 Theoretical Total Equity Value 4,376
0.52
Debt 1,844 4.00% 74
EBITDA Multiple Method Equity 4,376 8.97% 393
Total 6,220 7.50%
Total Existing Shares 7,849
13 14 15 13 14 15
4,362 4,790 5,217 0.56 0.61 0.66
Average 0.61
Book Value Book Value
Equity Value with Inv. @
Book Value
Price Per Share (US$)
Equity Value with Inv. @ Equity Value with Investments @
Book Value
Equity Value with Investments @
Book Value
Equity Value with Inv. @
Price Per Share (US$)
Equity Value with Investments @
Book Value
Price Per Share (US$)
9
Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc.
Refinery at 184,000 bpd
Sl. Perpetuity 1 EBITDA2
No. (7% & 2%) Multiple (8) 1.5 2.0 2004 2005
1(a) Equity Value (mio usd) 4,927 4,434 5,409 7,212 7,414 10,934
1(b) Equity Value (mio baht) 197,065 177,353 216,353 288,471 296,563 437,359
2 No.of Equity Shares (mio)
i) - Existing 1,950 1,950 1,950 1,950 1,950 1,950
ii) - New 5,899 5,899 5,899 5,899 5,899 5,899
3 Post Conversion Equity Shares {2(i)+(ii)} 7,849 7,849 7,849 7,849 7,849 7,849
4 Price per share (Bt)
- On fully diluted basis {1(b)/3} 25.1 22.6 27.6 36.8 37.8 55.7
(On post issue equity base)
Price per share (usd)
- On fully diluted basis {1(a)/3} 0.63 0.56 0.69 0.92 0.94 1.39
(On post issue equity base)
1. Valuation on perpetuity (DCF) is based on 7.00% WACC and 3% terminal growth
2. EBITDA multiple is 8 times of Average EBITDA of 2004 & 2005
3. Price to Book Value is 1.5 and 2.0 times of 2004 Book Value
4. P/E multiple (20) is 20 times of EPS
Equity Share price at various Valuation method
P/E Multiple (20)4 Price to Book Value (2004)3
10
11
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY
(after the company reverses the shares taken by creditors and restate the financial statements)
To know true and fair financial position of the company, the rectified financial statements need to be looked at, along with the
value of firm by Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF).
1. Shareholders equity per Share comes to Baht 22.77 (and Baht 82.99 by DCF method) after restating unfair write-downs
of assets, made by EPL (Plan Administrator appointed by Creditors) to Assets and Cancellations of equity issued to Creditors at
unfair price.
2. Shareholders equity per share was Baht 17.69 at the end of year 1999, which was continuously reduced after EPL
became Plan Administrator to only Baht 0.12 by end of year 2002 {Baht 14.91 end of 2000 (2Q), Baht 10.30 end of 2000 (3Q),
Baht (-) 12.08 end of 2000, Baht 0.62 end of 2001 and Baht 0.12 end of 2002 (2Q)} and then started upwards to Baht 1.62 at the end
of 2003 (increased by 1,221%) after removal of EPL.
3. The EPL wrote-down shareholders equity by writing down value of assets, swapping Accrued interest (from 1998 to 2000)
to equity (5,849 million shares or 75% stake) at hefty discount, charging sky-high restructuring fees and making net
operating losses (caused by their inexperience in running fully integrated petrochemical complex) as below:
�� Write-down of assets by Baht 41,839 million
�� Issue of equity to Creditors at discount by Baht 71,819 million
�� Charging the restructuring fees of Baht 2,192 million
�� Made Net operating losses of Baht 23,576 million
Besides the above, there were opportunity losses estimated at Baht 13,511 million caused by running the refinery at lower
capacity (39%) and other operational mismanagements (not included in this reinstatement).
4. The buy-back of Creditors equity is priced at Baht 1.62 (book value at the end of 2003), below the issue price Baht 5.52, to
charge them with part of the losses made by irresponsible Plan Administrator (EPL) appointed by them.
(`000 Baht)
TPI Restate
Particulars 1999 2000 (2Q) 2000 (3Q) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 (R)
Shareholders` Equity
Issued and fully paid shares 19,500,000 19,500,000 19,500,000 19,500,000 78,489,112 78,489,112 78,489,112 19,500,000
Premium (Discount) on share capital 7,208,723 7,208,723 7,208,723 7,208,723 (32,048,531) (32,048,531) (32,048,531) 7,208,723
Premium on shares from the sale of shares of
related company and associated company to
the public exceeding par value 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839 2,250,839
Surplus on change in percentage holding in
related company and associated company 0 328,050 328,050 328,050 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000
Surplus from sale of land to related company 28,031
Revaluation Surplus 64,397,388 63,171,002 62,554,909 42,917,923 41,983,493 40,835,103 39,688,799 61,168,263
Retained Earnings appropriated to - - -
Legal Reserve 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000 1,960,000
Deficit (60,382,712) (64,126,734) (72,287,247) (96,391,387) (86,312,801) (89,381,969) (86,359,219) (56,441,721)
Unrealized Loss on available for sales
Securities (430,245) (1,220,115) (1,282,214) (1,308,833) (1,425,016) (1,123,060) 8,935,487 8,935,487
Own shares held by the subsidiaries (53,611) (39,315) (43,187) (204,020) (204,020)
Minority Interests 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY 34,504,036 29,071,809 20,233,104 (23,560,220) 4,883,825 964,351 12,738,511 44,403,614
No. of Shares 1,950,000 1,950,000 1,950,000 1,950,000 7,848,911 7,848,911 7,848,911 1,950,000
Book Value (Baht/share) 17.69 14.91 10.38 (12.08) 0.62 0.12 1.62 22.77
Long Term Loans plus Accrued Interest 114,722,069 124,295,798
Shareholders Equity
After EPL
(after the company reverses the shares taken by creditors and restate the financial statements)
Book Value Movement
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999
2000 (2Q)
2000 (3Q)
2000
2001
2002
2003
Book Value (Bt/Share)
TPI enter into restructuring
EP granted as planner
EP submit restructuring plan
Restructuring plan approved by court
EP write down of assets
EP convert accrued interest into equity
Court remove EP as planner
Restate
12
Sl Amount Book Value
No. Particulars Period (`000 bt) (Baht/Share)
A Shareholders Equity as of 31/12/03 31/12/2003 3,164,782 1.62
(1,950,000,000 Shares)
Add Back:
Write-off by EPL in year 2000 31/12/2000 41,238,832 21.15
Investment and Loan 772,620
Loans to related Parties 9,128,164
Other Assets (rental deposit for office building) 905,513
Property, Plant and Equipment 30,432,535
Restated Shareholders Equity as of 31/12/03 44,403,614 22.77
B Debt
Long Term Loans as of 31/12/2003 105,390,316
Accrued Interest as of 31/12/2003 9,339,817
Add:
Cancellation of Creditors Equity 9,573,728
(5,898,911,211 shares @ 1.62 -> Book Value as of 31/12/03)
Restated Debt as of 31/12/03 124,303,861
000 USD (Exchange Rate 1USD-> 40 Baht) 3,107,597
Calculation of Shareholders Equity and Debt
(after the company reverses the shares taken by creditors and restate the financial statements)
13
(`000 Baht)
Sl. No. Entry Debit Credit
1 Debit
Investment and Loan 772,620
Loans to related Parties 9,128,164
Other Assets (rental deposit for office building) 905,513
Credit
To Retained Earnings 10,806,297
(Reversal of write-off made by EPL in year 2000)
2 Debit
Property, Plant and Equipment 30,432,535
Credit
To Unrealized Increment of Asset Appraisal 21,479,464
To Retained Earnings 8,953,071
(Reversal of Write down and impairment of Fixed Assets made by EPL in year 2000)
3 Debit
Issued & Paid-up Capital 58,989,112
Credit
To Long Term Loans OR Accrued Interest 9,375,533
To Premium on Share Capital 39,257,254
To Retained Earnings 10,356,325
(Cancellation of the 5,898,911,211 Equity Shares Issued to Creditors at
unfair price and Buy back at Book Value as of 31/12/03)
TOTAL 100,227,944 100,227,944
Accounting Entries to Restate the Financial Statement
14
Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc.
Refinery at 184,000 bpd
Share Price Valuation
Investment Book Value Book Value
Investments 347 347 10,000 20,000
Loan to Ass.co. 304 304 8,700 7,500
Total 651 651
Avg. EBITDA 427 427
Exchange Rate 40.0
70%
Debt as of 31/12/03 (@70%) (m USD) 2,175
Perpetuity Method Equity Value using Averages
US$ Baht
Theoretical Value per share 2.33 93.13
Theoretical Total Equity Value 4,540
Discount Rate
2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Debt 2,175 4.40% 96
5% 7,031 10,099 19,303 3.61 5.18 9.90 Equity 4,540 9.16% 416
6% 5,026 6,435 9,252 2.58 3.30 4.74 Total 6,715 7.62%
7% 3,819 4,596 5,890 1.96 2.36 3.02 Total Existing Shares 1,950
8% 3,010 3,487 4,201 1.54 1.79 2.15
9% 2,430 2,743 3,181 1.25 1.41 1.63
10% 1,992 2,209 2,497 1.02 1.13 1.28 Value Convergence under Exit Multiple Method
Average 1.99 2.53 3.79 US$ Baht
2.77 Theoretical Value per share 1.92 76.88
Theoretical Total Equity Value 3,748
Exit Multiple Method
Debt 2,175 4.40% 96
Equity 3,748 9.16% 343
Discount Rate Total 5,923 7.41%
13 14 15 13 14 15 Total Existing Shares 1,950
5% 4,481 4,743 5,005 2.30 2.43 2.57
6% 4,062 4,301 4,539 2.08 2.21 2.33
7% 3,682 3,899 4,116 1.89 2.00 2.11
8% 3,335 3,533 3,731 1.71 1.81 1.91 Value Convergence under Perpetuity Method
9% 3,019 3,199 3,380 1.55 1.64 1.73 US$ Baht
10% 2,730 2,895 3,060 1.40 1.48 1.57 Theoretical Value per share 2.07 82.99
Average 1.82 1.93 2.04 Theoretical Total Equity Value 4,046
1.93
Debt 2,175 4.40% 96
EBITDA Multiple Method Equity 4,046 9.16% 371
Total 6,221 7.50%
Total Existing Shares 1,950
13 14 15 13 14 15
4,031 4,459 4,886 2.07 2.29 2.51
Average 2.29
Equity Value with Inv. @
Price Per Share (US$)
Equity Value with Investments @
Book Value
Price Per Share (US$)
Book Value Book Value
Equity Value with Inv. @
Book Value
Price Per Share (US$)
Equity Value with Inv. @ Equity Value with Investments @
Book Value
Equity Value with Investments @
Book Value
15
THAI PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
Refinery at 184,000 bpd
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
(dollars in millions, except per share data)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EBITDA 469.6 638.9 469.5 361.3 275.3 214.9 305.7 441.3 642.8 454.2
Less: Depreciation (83.2) (85.6) (88.0) (90.3) (92.6) (94.8) (96.9) (99.0) (101.0) (102.9)
EBITA 386.4 553.2 381.5 271.0 182.7 120.2 208.8 342.3 541.8 351.3
Less: Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 (36.4) (40.6) (26.7) (52.2) (95.9) (162.5) (105.4)
Tax-effected EBITA 386.4 553.2 381.5 234.6 142.1 93.5 156.6 246.5 379.3 245.9
Plus: Depreciation 83.2 85.6 88.0 90.3 92.6 94.8 96.9 99.0 101.0 102.9
Less: Capital Expenditures (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (30.0) (72.9)
Less: Changes in Working Capital (57.4) (39.9) (14.2) 10.0 5.5 4.2 2.2 (8.4) (11.8) (16.1)
Free Cash Flow 382.2 569.0 425.2 304.8 210.2 162.4 225.7 307.0 438.4 259.8
Perpetuity Method
A + B = C
Discounted (a) PV of Terminal Value (Average FCF 2004 -2013)
Discount Rate Cash Flows Discount Rate at a Perpetual Growth Rate of (c)
(Pre Tax) (2004-2013) (After Tax) 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
5% 2,594 5% 5,961 9,029 18,233 8,555 11,623 20,827
6% 2,484 6% 4,066 5,475 8,292 6,550 7,959 10,776
7% 2,382 7% 2,961 3,738 5,032 5,343 6,120 7,414
8% 2,286 8% 2,249 2,725 3,439 4,535 5,011 5,725
9% 2,196 9% 1,758 2,071 2,509 3,954 4,267 4,705
10% 2,113 10% 1,404 1,620 1,908 3,516 3,733 4,021
Exit Multiple Method
A + B = C
Discounted (a) PV of Terminal Value as a
Discount Rate Cash Flows Discount Rate Multiple of Average EBITDA (2004 - 2013) (b) Firm Value
(2004-2013) (After Tax) 13 14 15 13 14 15
5% 2,594 5% 3,410 3,673 3,935 6,005 6,267 6,529
6% 2,484 6% 3,102 3,341 3,579 5,586 5,825 6,064
7% 2,382 7% 2,824 3,041 3,259 5,206 5,423 5,640
8% 2,286 8% 2,573 2,771 2,969 4,859 5,057 5,255
9% 2,196 9% 2,347 2,527 2,708 4,543 4,724 4,904
10% 2,113 10% 2,142 2,307 2,471 4,254 4,419 4,584
(a) Present values calculated as of end of December 2003
(b) Discounted 10 years; based on ten-year average EBITDA
(c) Discounted 10 years; based on ten-year average Free Cash Flow
EBITDA Multiple Method (Using 10-year Average EBITDA from 2004 - 2013)
Firm Value
13 14 15
(4) Capital Expenditure projections not reasonable 5,555 5,983 6,410
Projected FYE December 31,
Firm Value
16
(`000 Baht)
% CHANGE FROM
TOTAL MONTHLY YEARLY MONTHLY FORECAST
6
SALES 68,598,296 11,433,049 115,956,089 9,663,007 18%
(`000 Baht)
EBITDA 9,902,585 1,650,431 18,784,043 1,565,337 5%
(`000 Baht)
THAI PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY PUBLIC CO.,LTD AND SUBSIDIARIES
EBITDA COMPARISON - ACTUAL JAN-JUNE` 2004 V/s FORECAST 2004
JANUARY TO JUNE`04 (ACTUAL) FORECAST 2004
17

Interesant allerdings die Ausage, mit den Aktien für unter 3 Bhat.
Das habe ich nicht gewust.
Muss ich noch prüfen.
Diese Zahlen müßten vom 20.08.2004 sein.
MFG Reimund
Avatar
Icebear99
schrieb am 25.08.04 13:48:11
Beitrag Nr. 74 (14.134.392)
Hallo Reimund

Die Aktie wurde am 17.8. ausgesetzt, einen tag bevor die Zahlen raus kamen.
Zu den Aktien unter 3 Baht, also das gehört ja zu den Sanierungsplan, aber inwieweit der jetzt, falls, geändert wurde, kann ich nicht sagen.

Gruß
Eisi
Avatar
Icebear99
schrieb am 13.09.04 10:52:09
Beitrag Nr. 75 (14.274.576)
ach mensch nach so einer schweren Nacht, dann so ein schönes Erwachen. Da habe ich doch gerne noch ein paar mehr schwere Nächte :lick:




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