Globex Mining- Startschuss ??? (Seite 1461)

[hansihans]

Münchenguru

Weisst Du was mich an Globex stört sind nicht die Verzögerungen. Es ist die schlecht oder nicht kommunizierte Vorgehensweise.

Um Dein Beispiel von Woulfe aufzugreifen (wo ich übrigens trotz derzeitigem Buchverlust sehr positiv gestimmt bin), die haben 2 !!! Hauptprojekte (nicht 115). Ausserdem haben Sie einen ganz klaren Zeitplan erstellt und bisher zu 98% eingehalten. So bin ich als Aktionär monatlich im Bilde und kann durch entsprechend publizierte News die Einhaltung überprüfen. So etwas gibt Vertrauen und stärkt Interesse der Anleger.

Nun aber genug, immer mit anderen zu vergleichen. Hast Du das Interview mit Jack gelesen, welches ich gestern eingestellt habe?

Hier mal einige von mir frei gewählte Auszüge:

We believe that the final
product that we’re looking for is not copper, it’s
not gold, it’s not zinc, it’s not manganese or
magnesium or talc, it’s money

The idea is that we want to get to the point where it becomes a standalone company, and we have started a company called Chibougamau Independent Mines Limited, it’s a private company, 100 percent owned by Globex. All of the assets have been put into that and once we have everything in place, unless someone comes up to us with some unbelievably fantastic deal, we intend to spin this off as a dividend to our shareholders. We think it has very, very significant potential and I prefer to go at it alone and just dividend it out to our shareholders and finance it.

We are very frugal, we’re very careful with our shareholders’ money.

Sorry, aber da weiss ich nicht, ob ich lachen oder weinen soll. Was meint er nur damit?


Also, eben.. ich verstehe einfach den Zusammenhang bei Jack nicht genau. Dauernd spricht er davon, Geld sei das wichtigste "Asset". Er hat ja genug davon, aber wo ist unseres? Kommt das irgendwann noch? Ich habe jedenfalls noch derbe Buchverluste, aber man kann ja auch argumenieren, dass ich den falschen Einstiegszeitpunkt gewählt habe, oder sogar die falsche Aktie.

Und wo sind die Interessierten von Chibougamau? Dachte die stehen vor der Tür, mehrere?! Jetzt gibt er im Interview bekannt, dass man es selbst entwickle ausser wenn..... bla, bla, bla....

Sorry, komme da einfach nicht mit...

[muenchenguru]

bitte Hansihans, der Chart soll Dich nicht provozieren, er soll nur
ein weiteres Beispiel für den langen Weg sein.
Er zeigt den Verlauf v. Woulfe Mining, vormals Oriental Minerals, die ich selber hatte.

Du weißt doch selber, dass der Minenbereich im Moment in einer außerordentlich schwierigen Verfassung ist.

In meinen Augen wären jetzt die richtigen Schritte: Konsolidierung (Konzentration) der Minengebiete, Adressierung mittelgroßer Adressen für JV größerer Gebiete (z.B. Chibougamau) und/oder größere Finanzierungsrunden ohne Verwässerung (Fremdkapital gegen Aktienanteile der Spin-offs).

Ja, die Spinoffs verzögern sich u. das ist enttäuschend.
Aber ein Spinoff macht im jetzigen Umfeld nur Sinn, wenn eine Perspektive (=Finanzierung) vorliegt.
Sonst macht es wenig Sinn.

[kalorex]

Weisst Du MüGu, nichts gegen Eure unverwüstliche tiefenüberzeugte Dauervorfreude.
Ich mag es eben, wenn irgendwann auch mal Bescherung ist. So simpel ist das.

Die so gross herbeigesehnte PEA hat im Chart kaum einen Huckel hinterlassen.
Dafür gibt es jetzt Xmet. Wieder 6 Monate Vorfreude. Die Frist läuft wieder im August aus? Da kann man es ja gleich zusammen feiern mit dem ersten Jahrestag von Chibagongo. Das wird 'ne Party.

Ich habe nach wie vor meine kleine Lottoposition. Mehr aus Sentimentalität.
Nichts Ernstes.

[hansihans]

Ach Kalorex,
da steckst Du ja fett in einer tiefen Depression.
Hast Du tatsächlich Aktien oder bist Du hier nur für die Folklore zuständig ?
Wenn Du Dir den Minenbereich anschaust, dann trifft Deine depressive Tirade
ja nicht nur auf GMX zu.

Die Zahlen die vorgelegt wurden, waren gut. Aber das reicht nicht aus für eine längerfristige UN Perspektive u. Jack weiß das.

Weisst Du Münchenguru, der Unterschied zwischen den hier im Forum gemachten negativen Aussagen und den positiven ist einfach der, dass was als negativ interprätiert wird die Fakten sind. Diese sind immer auf Globex abgestimmt.

- Kurs tief
- Kaum Handel
- Nachrichten werden kaum noch positiv wahrgenommen, geschweige denn beeinflussen den Kurs postitiv
- Schlechte PR
usw.

Bei den "positiven" Aussagen und Boardteilnehmern herscht dagegen ersten ein Wunschdenken... "Wird schon...", "tolle Aussichten..", "super Projekte", "wir haben ja über 100 Chancen Geld zu verdienen, andere mit nur einem Projekt nur eine.." usw.

Ebenfalls kommt immer wieder der Vergleich mit anderen Unternehmen (dies passt dann aber m.M. nicht mit Aussagen wie andere haben nur ein Projekt" zusammen... Auch wird regelmässig der Gesamtmarkt angeführt (ebenso wie die schlechten Rohstoffpreise und die schwache Konjunktur bzw. Wirtschaftslage, oft von Jack).

Nur leider geht Globex oft mit dem Gesamtmarkt nach unten, nach oben bleibt sie allerdings meist stecken.

Noch ein Wort zu Deinem: "Jack weiss das.."

Das ist ja toll, wenn er das weiss. Weisst Du denn auch, was er dagegen tut? Oder tut er gar nichts ausser grosskotzige Ankündigungen zu machen, von denen bisher kaum etwas umgesetzt worden ist. Oder habe ich was verpasst? Sag es mir doch, wenn Du es weisst, denn ich merke nichts...

Wo sind die Spin Offs? Wo sind die Verträge mit den vielen sehr interessierten Parteien von Chibougamau, die seit Mitte letzten Jahres Schlange bei ihm stehen? Wo ist die PR, die erweitert wurde, ich habe nichts gesehen oder bemerkt?

Statt dessen immer dasselbe: Ausreden und Rechtfertigungen seitens der Unternehmensleitung. Der ist Schuld, Wirtschaftslage, wir bohren weiter, dass wir noch mehr finden, Rüückgang der Rohstoffpreise, Quebec Bill 14...

JACK IST NICHT MEHR GLAUBWÜRDIG !!!!

Und das sehen eben immer mehr Investoren so wie ich.

[muenchenguru]

Das Haar in der Suppe seltsamer Rohstoff-Nachrichten
von Jochen Steffens

Dieses Mal ist nicht der Ölpreis schuld. Nein, dieses Mal soll es eine Aussage von Ian Ashby gewesen sein, welche zunächst australische Rohstoffaktien in den Keller schickte, denen dann auf dem Fuße die asiatischen und schließlich auch die europäischen Aktienmärkte folgten. Ian Ashby ist der Leiter der Eisenerzsparte des australisch-britischen Rohstoffkonzerns BHP-Billiton, neben Vale und Rio Tinto eines der drei größten Rohstoffunternehmen der Welt.
Auswüchse der Nachrichtenübermittlung?

Es geht dabei um Aussagen, die am Rande einer in Perth stattfindenden Erz-Konferenz australischer Minenbetreiber getätigt wurden. Aussagen, die im Zusammenhang mit der Prognose des chinesischen Premierministers Wen Jiabao beim 11. Volkskongress stehen, dass sich das chinesische Wirtschaftswachstum auf 7, 5 Prozent abschwächen wird (wie auch schon berichtet).

Und hier fangen die Auswüchse der Nachrichtenübermittlung an. Die Nachricht, die um die Welt ging, war, dass Ian Ashby davon ausgehe, die Eisenerznachfrage in China werde sich „stark abschwächen“. Hört sich doch gefährlich an. Aber es ist schon eine Dramatisierung. Bei genauerem Recherchieren findet man etwas frühere Nachrichten, die schreiben, dass Ian Ashby erwarte, dass das chinesische Nachfragewachstum in den einstelligen Prozentbereich absacken werde oder schon auf dieses Niveau zurückgegangen sei.
Das war geschehen

Schaut man sich die australischen Originalnachrichten an, hört sich das alles schon wieder ganz anders an:

Danach ist Ian Ashby bei dieser Konferenz Spekulationen entgegengetreten, konkrete Expansionspläne von BHP-Billiton seien aufgrund der niedrigeren Wachstumsprognose in China in Frage gestellt. Laut Ashby werden diese ganz im Gegenteil mit (Zitat) „Volldampf“ vorangetrieben. (Anm. d. Red.: Das allein hört sich schon kaum noch pessimistisch an). Zudem weist er darauf hin, dass sich die chinesische Stahlerzeugung in diesem Jahr im Bereich von 1 bis 1,1 Mrd. Tonnen bewegen werde. 2011 wurden hingegen „nur“ 700 Mio. Tonnen Stahl produziert, nach 620 bzw. 672 im Jahr 2010 (je nach Veröffentlichung) – auch das ein deutlicher Anstieg. Doch im weiteren Verlauf folgten die Aussagen, um die es geht.
Die Originalzitate

Dazu die Originalzitate von Ian Ashby:

„The really high double-digit numbers of the last seven or eight years…clearly, we don’t have those anymore,"

Die wirklich hohen zweistelligen Werte der vergangenen sieben oder acht Jahre, die haben wir eindeutig nicht mehr.

"So you are getting into steel growth that is less than pure GDP growth."

So gehen wir in ein Stahl-Wachstum über, das geringer ist als das reine BIP-Wachstum.

"But the thing for us is that the size of the steel pie has gotten so big, which translates into the iron ore demand, and there is still plenty of opportunity to grow in that."

Aber die Sache für uns ist doch die, dass der [weltweite] Stahlanteil [Chinas] so groß geworden ist und dieser direkt die Eisenerznachfrage bedingt, dass da noch sehr viel Platz für weiteres Wachstum ist.

Das klingt doch eigentlich sehr optimistisch. Vor allem, wenn man sich zudem bewusst macht, dass ein jährlich zweistelliges Wachstum einer Stahlproduktion rein mathematisch schon auf Dauer nicht durchzuhalten ist.

Für Ian Ashby sind die Wachstumsraten Chinas im Stahl- und damit im Eisenerzsektor zudem inzwischen eher zweitrangig. China produziert mittlerweile rund 50 % der weltweiten Stahlmenge. Dieser Anteil ist damit derart unvorstellbar groß, dass allein mit der Befriedigung des dadurch bedingten Eisenerzbedarfs die drei Großen (BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto) genug Wachstumspotenzial sehen.

So wurde bei dieser „Stillen Post“ der Nachrichtenübermittlung ganz nebenbei auch völlig ignoriert, dass sich zum Beispiel David Joyce, zuständig für Expansionsprojekte bei Rio Tinto, auf der gleichen Konferenz ebenfalls sehr optimistisch zeigte, genauso wie die Teilnehmer dieser Konferenz insgesamt.
Das Haar in der Suppe

Ja, hier haben Anleger offensichtlich das Haar in der Suppe gesucht und gefunden. Aber es ist ein schönes Beispiel dafür, wie sich Nachrichten an den Börsen entwickeln. Es ist eines der Probleme des Internetzeitalters, dass sich Nachrichten rasend schnell verbreiten, ohne dass noch eine wirkliche Recherche betrieben wird. Jeder schreibt von jedem ab und so entsteht schnell dieses Stille-Post-Phänomen.

Zusätzlich belasteten aber auch Nachrichten aus China und Russland, nach denen die dortigen Wachstumsprognosen für den Automobilabsatz gesenkt wurden, speziell deutsche Autowerte.

http://www.stockstreet.de/de/stockstreet-news/steffens-daily…

[muenchenguru]

der vorige Beitrag war jetzt auf der HP , aber die Konferenz war bereits im Dez., trotzdem gute Zs.fassung.
Hier ein Bericht über die Finanzierungssituation v. Juniors:

Juniors scramble for financing

TORONTO . Junior miners are focused on one overwhelming issue above all others these days: financing.

By National Post March 6, 2012 Be the first to post a comment


TORONTO . Junior miners are focused on one overwhelming issue above all others these days: financing.

In the halls of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto this week, junior companies are busy comparing notes about how they'll raise the next tranche of cash, and when they're going to need it.

Despite strong commodity prices, investors have lost interest in speculative exploration firms (which dominate the PDAC conference) because of the broader market volatility.

That makes it extremely difficult for these firms to raise any money in the debt or equity markets. For juniors, "it's very tough right now," said Tom Whelan, leader of Ernst & Young's national mining practice. "The key for them is to look at as many alternatives for financing as possible. A lot of people are working the floor trying to find them."

Some of the financing options tossed around by experts include partnerships with major producers, royalty or streaming arrangements, investments from state-owned enterprises, private equity, and even listings on other stock exchanges that may be closer to their projects.

Raising cash for exploration is not as insurmountable a task today as it was for many companies in 2008 and 2009, when there was a giant culling in the junior mining sector. However, it still often requires some creativity and forward thinking.

One example came on Monday, when Toronto-based Allana Potash Corp. said it received expressions of interest for a US$600-million debt financing package for its Ethiopiabased potash project.

Chief executive Farhad Abasov said the key to raising this money is that Allana brought in a couple of key investors early in its develop-ment: the International Finance Corp. (a division of the World Bank) and Liberty Metals and Mining, a private-equity investor. They gave the market greater confidence in Allana's project.

"You have to think long term," Mr. Abasov said. "Having those investors in early makes it much easier for others to do their due diligence. It would have been much harder without them."

He said the company has targeted development banks and other Africafocused investors, which would not be available to companies in other parts of the world.

Another notable junior financing was last week, when commodities giant Glencore International PLC acquired a 7.8% stake in Trevali Resources Corp. for US$18-million. The deal, which closed Monday, gives the company funds to bring the past-producing Santander mine in Peru back into production.

Similar to Allana, Trevali sealed this deal thanks to a existing relationship: It has been working with Glencore since 2008. The partnership gave Trevali access to Glencore's skilled workforce, which is often a problem for juniors. "When one of the world's largest miners takes a position, it makes a difference," chief executive Mark Cruise said.

For juniors that don't have a good story or a competitive advantage, the financing road could remain tough. "If you've got six months of cash left or less, you've got to be thinking about a lot of alternatives," Mr. Whelan said. "Every junior should be looking at a dozen different options."

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?…

[muenchenguru]

Zitat von kalorex: Was für ein Trauerspiel.
Hier glaubt inzwischen tatsächlich keiner mehr an die ach so tollen Ankündigungen.
Und wer dran glaubt, der wartet auf Einstiegskurse von 0,86 CAD...
Die Welt druckt Geld und GMX steckt in der Deflation.
Gute Nacht.

Ach Kalorex,
da steckst Du ja fett in einer tiefen Depression.
Hast Du tatsächlich Aktien oder bist Du hier nur für die Folklore zuständig ?
Wenn Du Dir den Minenbereich anschaust, dann trifft Deine depressive Tirade
ja nicht nur auf GMX zu.

Die Zahlen die vorgelegt wurden, waren gut. Aber das reicht nicht aus für eine längerfristige UN Perspektive u. Jack weiß das.
Geduld ist eine harte Währung u. hier erleben wir die wahre Deflation, das Handtuch ist nicht mehr weit.... .

Hier eine gute Zs.fassung der Hard Assets Conference in SF:

Notes from the San Francisco Hard Assets Conference

By Anthony J. Alfidi

December 12, 2011 • Reprints
1

This year's Hard Assets Conference was as big as they come. The last weekend in November always brings a ton of mining experts to the city. Enough time has passed for the information discussed there to be actionable in the markets, so now it's time to review the show. I'll summarize the main points of lectures I attended below, with my own observations in italics.

Ian McAvity, "Deliberations on World Markets"
- The euro was designed to blow up in a crisis and North American markets are amazingly complacent about its implications. All this time, I thought the euro zone was just another fox-hunting club for aristocrats.
- Alan Greenspan's money creation did not help the stock market, citing Shadow Government Statistics' revised unemployment numbers.
- Another debt ceiling showdown may shock markets.
- Retail investors are still selling equity mutual funds. Maybe so, but somebody's still buying. I wonder if pension plans and professional money managers are the dumb money.
- Ian predicts the DJIA will be under 8000 in 2012 and that gold is undervalued versus equities. Specific price targets are usually trouble for market commentators. I'll go along with a general bearish case but I'm not as brave as Ian to predict a specific goal for the market. Fair value based on mean reversion to a P/E ratio at its historic average of 14 implies DJIA may eventually go as low as 5000 or so. Whether gold is undervalued depends on whether it resorts to its own historic mean price in the low 600s per ounce.
- Plotting the price of gold against the DJIA indicates a technical trend of higher highs and lower lows. My MBA-trained mind says those price moves are just a random walk. The market doesn't do what you want it to do.
- Ian thinks gold mining stocks lag moves in bullion and that only majors will provide good buying opportunities. I think Ian should attend some of the company presentations at this conference. Juniors with properties that have decent ore grades and logistical factors can break out.
- The US and UK are arrogant to treat the rest of the world like colonies. China and Brazil may lead a currency revolt. True, but China would have to de-link the renminbi from the US dollar first, making its exports less competitive at a time when its main import markets - the US and Europe - are slowing down.

Keith Schaeffer, "Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin"
- Oil patch activity via horizontal drilling and fracking will change juniors. You betcha. This is already happening, with players in the Bakken formation and elsewhere paying top dollar for labor.
- The market prices the value of discoveries in mining more quickly than in oil and gas.
- Shale formations resemble potash plays; relatively uniform geology means the market can price discovery more quickly. Good observation, Keith.
- "Price per flowing barrel" juniors are picking up steam. My interpretation is that juniors who actually produce at a mature wellhead deserve better valuations than those still in exploration.
- The US has several years of cheap natural gas ahead, with more discoveries possible. We can thank fracking for this good news. Tell your elected officials to keep the EPA out of a proven technology.

Frank Holmes (U.S. Global Investors), "Looking For Super S-Curves"
- The average currency crisis lasts four years, based on 47 preceding crises in the last 400 years. "This time it's different." The last world reserve currency to be dethroned was the British pound after WWII, but the transition was eased by the ready emergence of the US dollar as a replacement. There is no such alternative on the horizon now.
- Many majors have such good fee cash flows they don't need to tap capital markets. I hear you, Frank. Too many juniors run out of cash too soon because they don't raise capital to match forecast spending. Majors usually don't have that problem.
- China and India will see their share of world GDP catch up to their share of the world's population. Not if they face resource constraints first. China has coal and rare earth metals but needs oil and hydroelectric power. India needs local infrastructure for "last mile" water delivery.
- Rising US interest rates today would destroy the price of gold. A surprise dollar collapse would cause such a spike. Gold bugs ignore this at their peril.
- Frank thinks gold is not a bubble now because the spike in gold prices in the early 1980s was driven by futures market buying, while today buying is cash driven. Really? What about allegations that GLD is stuffed with futures contracts and not bullion? I shudder to think what a crisis of confidence - even if unfounded - around GLD's holdings would do to gold bugs.

Adrian Day, "The Resource Boom: Is It All Over?"
- Long cycles in copper's price history imply the boom isn't over. But isn't Dr. Copper a reliable indicator of economic activity? Guess what happens to copper when the Great Recession gets cranking again.
- Adrian says even 5%-6% annual GDP growth in China makes it attractive versus the rest of the world. Adrian, China has needed at least 9% per year just to avoid social unrest, based on their population growth. If GDP doesn't keep pace with population, unrest will destroy much of what the country has built.

Axel Merk, "Currency Wars"
- The gold/inflation relationship implies inflation expectations are decreasing. If that holds, investors are in for a shock when the Fed and ECB try to save their respective sovereign solvency by printing away.
- Chinese companies have pricing power due to artificial government support, so companies that compete successfully in China can raise prices even if the US dollar declines. I'm not sure if the "successful" companies he means are those Western companies with operations inside China; I'm assuming so. Chinese companies selling inside China shouldn't care what the dollar does unless their supply chains have sources in the US.
- Central bank balance sheets are proxies for currency printing. The ECB has a different mindset than the Fed and is not necessarily inclined to QE-style printing. The Fed has no desire to mop up excess liquidity by raising interest rates, as that would be as politically suicidal here as in Europe. Interesting insights.
- Axel advocates the "currency as asset class" philosophy. I'll only agree up to the point that currency falls under "cash," as I still subscribe to the classic asset class definitions of debt, equity, and cash. Everything else for me is a subcategory of those three things. I truly believe currency is only useful as a hedge of other cash positions, not a something to use as a long bet or portfolio diversifier.
- The S&P is not a true international diversifier, as 90% of S&P listed companies hedge their earnings in dollars. This is a good argument for owning international equities rather than international currencies as a diversifier.

Rick Rule (Global Resource Investments): Keynote
- He endorsed Frank Holmes' view that increasing freedom in emerging markets would lead to growth.
- Income growth in lower socioeconomic classes drives commodity growth because they buy more material "stuff" to improve their lives.
- Chinese per capita energy consumption has grown but is still only 9% of US energy use. Hey oil shale frackers, have you made any contacts in China yet? Just asking.
- Legacy supply issues from a bear market in 1982-2002 constrain resource supply now due to a lack of investment then. Investors in hard assets tend to ignore things like capex requirements, which is why they get burned on junior mining companies that can't fund their exploratory budgets. I'll say it again . . . the major producers don't have this problem.
- The two-three year lag between a mining company's preliminary economic assessment and its bankable feasibility studies bring arbitrage opportunities. Buyouts happen at the bankability stage but discoveries happen before then. I didn't know that. Thanks Rick!
- Another liquidity crisis can destroy production finance, especially for capital intensive sectors like resources. Rick Rule is far from the only speaker here to warn that another credit shock will create an enormous buying opportunity in stocks. I've noticed a common theme of "bumpy ride ahead" at the Hard Assets Conference.
- Investors should seek more advantageous terms from junior companies. Issuers like to give investors 2 1/2 year warrants but reserve five year full options for themselves. I would call that evidence of an asymmetric information advantage of the company over the investor.

John Thomas (Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader), "Rare Earths In The Global Context"
- The stock market now discounts worse GDP growth.
- High frequency trading accounts for 80% of the trades in the oil market, driving huge price swings.
- Rare earth elements are illiquid; prices peaked on April 29, 2011, mainly driven by China's actions.
- The US dollar has been declining in value since the birth of the Fed in 1913. The many Ron Paul fans at this conference will like that one.
- Housing will fall until 2030 when Millennials will want to buy homes. Right now 85M Boomers want to sell their homes to 65M Gen-Xers.
- Fracking has unlocked a huge US natural gas supply. LNG exports to China will boom. This makes me think of Japan's dependence on US oil in the 1930s. The US oil embargo against Japan triggered their strategic decision to attack the US. There is a huge lesson here for strategists looking for an inflection point that can trigger US-China conflict. I believe resource access for China and India is one such inflection point, and possibly the single most severe one.
- John recently visited China to see if they were manipulating rare earth prices. Key leaders there gave the official line that they wanted to give manufacturers an advantage in finished goods. The Chinese government is tracking down unauthorized rare earth miners to get them to register in advance of consolidation.
- John is bearish on the platinum group metals because a likely recession next year will hurt the automobile market. PGMs are used in catalytic converters. Here's another expert forecasting a recession in 2012. Pay attention, investors!
- I asked John if he thought the Congressional budget "super committee" deliberately failed to come to agreement. John didn't think they conspired, but we shouldn't count on anything from our capital other than higher taxes. I do think some surprise budget cuts are in store for discretionary spending.

Mickey Fulp, "Mercenary Geologist"
- Rio Tinto wants badly to get into the Athabasca Basin and they've never lost a bidding war.
- Mickey doesn't like insiders who sell their own stock when the company is under duress.
Readers, I have to tell you that I've learned a ton from Mickey's lectures at the Hard Assets Conference and its predecessor events. His website is a terrific free education.

Paul van Eeden, "Looking for Value" Keynote
- The bottom four quintiles of earners have seen declines in their percentage of the economy's overall income, even while the top 1% has seen huge after-tax income growth. Don't tell the Occupy Wall Street crowd. They might try to enter the exhibition hall.
- The bottom 99% owes 73% of the debt in the US but their consumption drives the economy. This tells me that the postwar US model of debt-based consumption as a driver for growth is about to expire. No middle class can survive burial under huge college loans that can't be torn up in bankruptcy court. The next wave of growth - once Great Depression 2.0 has run its course - will have to be based on production.
- Metals prices indicate the equity bull market is over. China's new "ghost cities" drove its manufacturing growth; this is an unsustainable model. Construction of capital goods without demand is malinvestment. China's growth story experiment is thus destructive of capital. Finally, some sanity on China. I drank from the China punch bowl for long time until recently learning that much of the story is based on fraudulent finances, hidden debt, and trains to nowhere. Now I'm stuck with FXI until China jump starts its consumer economy, if ever.
- Chinese consumers can't afford overbuilt apartments (bought by speculators), so they fall into disrepair. Yikes, looks like consumers will be on their backs for a while.
- Chinese GDP is calculated on production, not consumption. Wasteful production of unneeded goods counts toward China's growth miracle.
- Paul thinks the Fed isn't dumb enough to force inflation up to intolerably high levels. The thing about such high inflation is that it can come accidentally when you're just shooting for moderate inflation that will devalue sovereign debt. The Fed may not be dumb enough to force this, but I don't know if they're smart enough to avoid it.
- Gold bullion prices typically move first, then majors, then juniors. Juniors won't rally until the bullion price resets. Boy am I glad this guy was a speaker. The hits just keep on coming. Please bring Paul back next year for more contrarian wisdom.

Al Korelin, "What Twenty Years . . ."
- Al believes the equity markets are unsound and invests exclusively in hard assets. That's pretty harsh; he's even more of a skeptic than me.
- Middle East instability can make gold skyrocket. Always remember that oil is priced in dollars, for now anyway.

Jack Lifton, Technology Metals Research
- Jack restated the contentions of his recent article on junior rare earth companies. Jack's bottom line is that only handful of publicly traded rare earth miners can produce all of the world's needs. I won't repeat much of what Jack said because frankly the man is so brilliant that I don't think I could do him justice. Read his articles for yourself to get the best view in the world on rare earth metals.

John Kaiser, Kaiser Research Online
- He says gold's price rise is sustainable. I disagree. Everything reverts to mean sooner or later. That mean for gold is in the low 600s.
- Gold miners' low share prices (relative to bullion) reflect anxiety that hyperinflation will make cash flows evaporate. Excellent. I would add that the majors have hedged their dollar exposure and will suffer less than juniors in such a scenario. Pay attention, investors.
- The US's sovereign debt load makes us strategically weak and out military spending is unsustainable. However, a US recession will hurt "parasite economies" like China due to their export-driven models. That means the US can expect a GDP lead over China that will last another 20-30 years. Hmm, that last bit is interesting, original thinking.

Michael Berry, Morning Notes
- Michael covered a lot of familiar ground on unpayable sovereign debt, China's malinvestment, the Fed's balance sheet, coming austerity in the developed world, and emerging markets' booming demand for commodities. I frequently read his free "Discovery Investing" commentaries. They are a good look into junior miners.

Frank Trotter, EverBank Direct
- EverBank believes the big economies drive the world economy, not emerging markets. He sounds like a contrarian at this conference given the many speakers who think the future lies with emerging economies.
- The euro gave peripheral countries a "free ride" so they could borrow at lower rates. Germany is not necessarily willing to take a big hit to GDP just to bail out the PIIGS.
- Positive drives of a currency's value include budget, debt, and trade numbers all in positive directions. Norway is #1 by this standard but Canada and Australia also look good. IMHO, these fundamentals are a more valuable set of metrics for currency investors than the "pips" traders watch.

John Nadler, (Kitco), "Silver's Cloudy Lining"
- The silver market is in surplus with record volume in 2010. Government silver stockpiles have declined for years.
- Average cash cost of production for the top 30 producers worldwide is now $5.20/oz. This is extremely important to note. Producers in the bottom quartile of production costs are more likely to add shareholder value. It pays to be a cheap operator.
- Investment demand has absorbed all surplus production; almost all of this demand came from silver ETFs.

The final event is always the Bulls and Bears keynote panel. Rick Rule, James Dines, Paul van Eeden, Ian McAvity, and Adrian Day held court. Rick moderated and kicked off by asking his panelists to nominate black swans that kept them worried. Count the swans: the end of our Bretton Woods system; a bank crisis that shocks China's growth and causes social unrest; resource scarcity; India awakening; Africa developing; overnight euro destruction.

The panelists anticipate the failure of the euro zone. These are very well-informed experts who have made a living for decades by being on the right side of the markets. I take their conclusions seriously. They were also very strongly supportive of gold's continued rise, except Paul, who thinks it will collapse to $850/oz. I can't call the end of gold's bull run. All I can say is that I'm not in love with any asset; my GDX holdings are just another asset class. I reduced my concentration in GDX as gold climbed.

Rick ended this year's confab by asking for things that could go right. Where are the white swans? The panelists responded: Congress could enact an austerity budget; technology innovation over decades could solve the growth crisis; the Fed could return to sound monetary policy (yeah right IMHO!); an outbreak of fiscal integrity in DC and justice in due course for the victims of the MF Global collapse. That last comment got a rousing response from the audience of hard-core hard assets investors who remained until the very end!

Thanks for another great year, Hard Assets Conference. I should also note that Jim Dines once again had an excellent booth staffed with attractive female models. That's one investment that never goes out of style.

Anthony J. Alfidi is founder and CEO of San Francisco-based Alfidi Capital LLC. His Alfidi Capital Blog publishes periodic commentary on anything and everything related to investing.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2011/12/12/notes-from-the-sa…

[kalorex]

Was für ein Trauerspiel.
Hier glaubt inzwischen tatsächlich keiner mehr an die ach so tollen Ankündigungen.
Und wer dran glaubt, der wartet auf Einstiegskurse von 0,86 CAD...
Die Welt druckt Geld und GMX steckt in der Deflation.
Gute Nacht.

[miwi2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.931.197 von mondel am 20.03.12 19:36:16

Bitte nicht auch noch ein KGV einführen---DAS würde dann wahrscheinlich
bemerkt......

[mondel]

Kann die Nichtbeachtung in Kanada daran liegen, dass auf der Internetseite der Bericht gar nicht auftaucht? Die meisten deutschsprachigen Anleger werden wahrscheinlich auch dieses Forum kennen und wissen somit, dass er über Sedar verfügbar ist.

Ein kleiner Gewinn in dieser Situation ist in jedem Fall sehr positiv. Vor allem, weil in diesem Jahr die Einkommensseite schon jetzt schöne Summen verspricht (Xmet, Nyrstar,...). Auch ohne die ganz großen Nachrichten kann man schon langsam ein KGV berechnen