Globex Mining- Startschuss ??? (Seite 1481)

[win08]

Interessanter Bericht in der aktuellen Wochenendausgabe des Handelsblatts mit dem Titel "Deutsche Industrie entdeckt Kanada" (S. 30). Der Untertitel lautet "Bei der Versorgung mit wichtigen Rohstoffen ist Deutschland von Importen abhängig. Eine Partnerschaft mit Kanada könnte das Problem entschärfen".

Egal wie, Hauptsache Globex wird auch mal "entdeckt" ...

[WilliamTell]

So präsentierte sich Timmins Deloro in 2001 (Auszug aus News):

GLOBEX'S MAGNESITE PROJECT GETS POSITIVE REVIEW IN SCOPING STUDY

Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, GLOBEX MINING ENTERPRISES INC. (GMX: TSE-CDNX), is pleased to report that it has received the final version of a scoping study from Hatch concerning Globex's Timmins area magnesite-talc project.

The most important findings of the scoping study are:
(1) The magnesium project has good economic potential.
(2) The project would be in the lowest quartile cash cost of magnesium producers.
(3) The project has the additional advantages of:
a) a large, cheaply mined, wholly owned resource base;
b) access to steady, long term, globally competitive power prices;
c) ready access to the largest consumer markets;
d) the ability to provide a secure supply chain to North American magnesium consumers;
e) political stability and beneficial tax and environmental laws;
f) access to a stable, high calibre workforce familiar with complex and heavy industry;
g) excellent infrastructure including highways and railways;
h) a high quality talc by-product, revenue from which should significantly reduce the magnesium production cash costs.

The project scenario studied by Hatch consists of a mine-mill complex located near Timmins, Ontario and a smelter complex located west of Rouyn-Noranda in Quebec. The project as envisioned will produce 90,000 tonnes of magnesium metal per year with the entire complex requiring a capital expenditure of US$966 million including US$153 million contingency. Because proven technology will be employed, Globex expects production can be achieved within budget and on schedule.

Gruss William

[WilliamTell]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.882.067 von saltamonte am 10.03.12 14:10:43

An Einnahmen sind meines Wissens folgende Beträge zu erwarten:
3,250,000 Xmet für Duquesne-West / Ottoman
500,000 von Canamara für das Eisenprojekt Lake Hematite
200,000 von Mag Copper (Schätzung)
600,000 Schätzung Royalty Tennessee Zink Mines (Basis Zinkpreis zu 50% über 0.90

Nicht bekannt ist mir, ob von Integra Gold (Farquharson/Donald) oder Tres-Or (Fontana)irgend was grösseres fällig ist.

Bleibt zu hoffen, dass es mit dem Zinkpreis klappt und die Option von Xmet eingelöst wird. Dann ist die komfortabel. Von Canamara hat man seit der Veroptionierung nichts mehr gehört. Deshalb muss bei dieser Einnahme ein Fragezeichen gemacht werden.

Ich rechne allerdings noch damit, dass neue Veroptionierungen realisiert werden können die etwas Cash generieren werden.

Gruss William

[saltamonte]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.881.755 von WilliamTell am 10.03.12 11:59:03

der zinkpreis war im q4 2011 nur für ca. 10 tage im grünen bereich und die mtz minen waren nicht im vollbetrieb - einnahmen aus royalties daher nur (imo) marginal. im q1-2012 allerdings schaut das ganze etwas besser aus - auf meiner "scorecard" sind es bisher 7 von 10 wochen und noch läuft q1 für ca. 3 weitere wochen.

wäre überhaupt mal interessant eine aufstellung für die vereinbarten/erwarteteten/möglichen 2012er einnahmen zu machen aus den verschiedensten projekten.

mtz und xmet sind da zb dabei.

[WilliamTell]

Hab grad mal nachgeschaut. In den letzten Jahren wurde der Jahresbericht jeweils zwischen dem 26. und 31. März im Sedar publiziert. In 2010 war es sogar etwas früher. Also in 14 Tagen bis 3 Wochen wissen wir mehr. Vor allem interessiert mich die Einnahmensituation, die ja in 2011 ziemlich gut verlaufen ist. Die grosse Unbekannte ist der Ertrag aus der Royalty von Tennessee Zink Mines.

Gruss William

[miwi2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.881.087 von muenchenguru am 10.03.12 00:20:37

Danke Alfred.

Als Chemiker und Verfahrenstechniker springt mich natürlich dieser Absatz sofort an:

This means that we have more work to do before constructing the commercial magnesia plant. The process has been demonstrated in extensive laboratory batch tests and micro pilot continuous tests, however, such a plant does not exist on a commercial scale to give a reference for scale-up. The individual processes are used extensively in industry, but they have not been put together in this manner. Therefore, we have been very conservative in the scale-up for purposes of the PEA. We believe that further work can reduce both capital and operating costs.

Die Kosten aus einem "micro pilot" hochzuskalieren, ist schon eine verwegene Methode.
Üblicherweise folgen ein half-micro-plant und dann ein pilot plant und DANN ein
EDV-based upscaling!
So mögen sich die Kosten vielleicht(!!) reduzieren, wahrscheinlicher ist, daß sie
Ihnen um die Ohren fliegen.
Ich habe an keinem Projekt mitgearbeitet, dessen erste Kostenschätzungen auch nur annähernd getroffen wurden oder gar unterschritten.
Die Aussagen sind also mit allergrößter Vorsicht zu "genießen". Für mich sind diese
Schätzungen ein Nullevent.

Schönes Wochenende.

[muenchenguru]

ich weiß solche Berichte kursieren genauso regelmäßig wie die diametral entgegensätzlichen Artikel über Angebotsüberschüsse aufgrund Konjunkturdellen oder -besonders bizarr -der Eröffnung neuer Minen.
Also genau das Gegenteil von dem hier Behaupteten.

Trotzdem kann man bei aller Fixiertheit auf unsere 0,90er Grenze feststellen, dass es schon was tolles u. besonderes ist eine laufende Royalty zu haben, noch dazu bei einem Großen der Branche.
Aber es sei auch an die Worte v. Saltamonte erinnert, der feststellte, dass die Tennessee Minen einer der niedrigsten Margen haben, also auch sehr schließungsgefährdet sind.

Zinc set to go sky high as supplies deplete in medium term
Fri 1:07 pm by Deborah Sterescu and Andre Lamberti The zinc market is expected to switch from surplus to deficit sometime in 2014The zinc market is expected to switch from surplus to deficit sometime in 2014

Zinc's price is expected to rocket in the medium term, with several mining analysts going bullish on the metal as the market is expected to switch from surplus to deficit sometime in 2014.

The main factor that comes into play here is mine supply, with some of the biggest zinc mines in the world set to close over the coming years - the Century mine in Australia owned by China's Minmetals, which produces 500,000 tonnes a year, is due to close in early 2016, while Xstrata's (LON:XTA) Brunswick mine in Canada, which provides 220,000 tonnes a year, is due to shut in early 2013.

The loss from these plus other closures and contractions in Kazakhstan, Canada and Ireland, among others, will be almost 1.5 million tonnes.

Zinc's uses range from coatings to protect iron and steel through galvanization, to sheets for building and a range of chemical applications. The metal is used in the automotive and building and construction industries, with galvanized steel growth being the main driver of zinc demand. The total world zinc consumption was estimated to be 12.45 million tonnes in 2011.

Despite recent lowered demand forecasts from Europe, the US, and even China on the back of the country's efforts to rein in inflation and deflate its property market bubble last year, Graham Deller from CRU International still believes that the zinc market will switch from surplus to deficit at some point in 2014 as overall global demand is still expected to be on an accelerating track in the next few years with China anticipated to show healthy growth to 2016.

At some point in 2012 or 2013, Japan is also expected to get a boost in zinc demand from reconstruction in the area, after the country was hit by last year’s Tsunami.

"The price of zinc will get bid up, but no one knows by how much. It will either go up very quickly to a level that cannot be sustained, or more steadily," said Deller, the head of research for zinc, lead and precious metals at CRU International.

Since 2007, the zinc market has been in surplus, with stocks building year-on-year at a rate no one would have thought possible prior to 2007. After peaking at almost 900,000 tonnes in 2010, CRU estimates that the global zinc metal surplus fell to 350,000 tonnes last year. But Deller anticipates rapidly growing shortages after the market switches to deficit in 2014.

In a quarterly zinc January 2012 report from CRU, the research firm said: "Although we have reduced our forecast of consumption to 2016, we have trimmed our outlook for production by almost as much, with lower prices of late having already delayed the development of the new mines that are needed to replace those nearing exhaustion."

The firm forecasts a record global metal deficit of almost 800,000 tonnes in 2016, leading to an expected surge in prices as consumers will be forced to bid metal away from Chinese speculators.

Though the addition of projects such as the expected 2015 start-up of Ozernoye in Russia is expected to help moderate the fall in supply, more mines and financing for development will be needed to prevent the zinc market from developing a shortfall, which will be large enough to "rapidly deplete the stocks built in 2008-13”, the report stated. Junior miners face restricted access to capital to develop their mines, as well as rapidly increasing capital and operating costs, leading to potential further consolidation in the industry.

In August 2011, Wood Mackenzie forecast a loss of 1.7 million tonnes by 2015. In addition to short supply, falling zinc and lead mine grades are also expected to add to the problem of meeting zinc demand.

These forecasts have led to increased interest in zinc for traders. Open interest in London Metal Exchange zinc futures gained by 12,193 contracts to 417,146 lots in the week that ended February 23, according to exchange figures. Each contract represents 25 metric tons of the metal used to rustproof steel.

Zinc for three-month delivery, the benchmark, climbed 3.5 per cent during the period.

This could mean big benefit for zinc producers like Xstrata, which plans to merge with Glencore (LON:GLEN) in a US$90 billion deal, along with Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK, TSE:TCK.B) and Nyrstar (EBR:NYR), which has made a string of acquisitions in recent years, and is now the largest zinc producer in the world.

Meanwhile, zinc-focused exploration plays are also set to be in focus, with their stock bound to be considered cheap when compared to a few years from now.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/40040/zin…

[muenchenguru]

Guten Abend,

die Antwort auf meine Fragen ist bereits heute gekommen, Jack hat sie direkt an den Techn.Berater David Hall weitergeleitet.
Die Antwort habe ich fett hervorgehoben.
ICh kann damit viel anfangen u. helfen mir die PEA besser einzuordnen , auch wenn natürlich nicht alles komplett geklärt ist.
Wie ich es verstehe ist die PEA ersteinmal ein Zwischenschritt u. es sind noch einige Prozessschritte offen u. damit auch die Capex. Wenn ich es richtig verstanden habe ist hier noch Potenzial (erheblich?) nach unten möglich. Aber dort erhoffe ich mir eher weniger positive Überraschung, ich setze meine Erwartung eher auf die Abnehmer/Finanzierungsseite.

@crystal
merci für die Forenbeiträge v. Metaugmentor, die Jungs scheinen einige Erfahrung mitzubringen u. diskutieren Globex recht umfangreich v. versch.Seiten.

Alfred, jetzt ist mein Vorname raus :-) , bin ja nicht Rumpelstilzchen

Hi Alfred
Below please find responses from our engineer and talc specialist.
Regards
Jack
>
> Dear Alfred,
>
> Thank you for the positive feedback on our PEA for the Timmins Talc Magnesite project. We appreciate independent feedback because it brings a new perspective that we sometimes miss when working so close to a project.
> I have inserted answers next to your questions below.
>
> Sincerely,
> David Hall


> Hi Jack,
> congratulations to the latest News .
> I know time is scarce so take your time
> with your reply.
>
> Concerning Timmings:
> - why is the strip ratio so high considering that it is a very shallow mine (thought you extract it right from the surface) ? You are correct that the mine is a relatively shallow open pit, however, the ore body is tipped on its side at almost 80°. The diagram below, taken from the “Technical Report on the Initial Mineral Resource Estimate for the Timmins Talc-Magnesite Deposit” written by Micon International in 2010, shows a typical cross section of the pit. In the diagram only A Zone Core material is considered ore. As you can see there are wedges of waste on both the north and south flanks of the deposit that need to be removed to access ore at the bottom of the pit later in the mining process.
> - why is the recovery of talc so low in the 70s % ? This recovery is typical of talc-carbonate ores that require flotation. A relatively low grade talc product, perhaps 90% talc, can be produced with very high recovery. Efficiency of removing impurities decreases rapidly as the talc purity requirement increases. The market value of low grade talc is a small fraction of high purity talc, so the economics dictate striving for high purity products.
> - what are the additional cost to produce 99% Mg (or is it included in the processing cost of 69 $ pt which is rather high, isn´t it) ? This purity can be produced within the stated cost. The cost reflects the processing required to consistently produce high quality product that commands premium prices.
> - do the processing cost of 69 $ mean that we truly have a high-quality product ? Yes, the product will be both high quality and consistent. The ability to tightly control the consistency through the process is a major advantage over existing producers.
> - what does the following unknown mean to the overall evaluation :
> "It should be noted that the magnesia leach and decomposition process has not yet been demonstrated at the scale of the proposed commercial production plant." This means that we have more work to do before constructing the commercial magnesia plant. The process has been demonstrated in extensive laboratory batch tests and micro pilot continuous tests, however, such a plant does not exist on a commercial scale to give a reference for scale-up. The individual processes are used extensively in industry, but they have not been put together in this manner. Therefore, we have been very conservative in the scale-up for purposes of the PEA. We believe that further work can reduce both capital and operating costs.
> - I learned that Imersys took over all the Talc operations from Rio Tinto for 340 Mio $ last year with operations on various continents.
> So I am a bit intimidated by the capex of the PEA. In my opinion, Imerys got a very good deal, however, on balance it is not better than the Timmins Talc-Magnesite project. Although we do not have particular financial data on the Imerys transaction, we can make some general comparisons:
> · CAPEX to after tax cash flow ratio for TTM is ~6X, which is very good.
> · Imerys has a much larger corporate infrastructure required to manage the many mines, processing facilities, and product lines.
> · TTM has no accrued liabilities that are attached to long term operations as Imersys now has.
> · TTM product is 100% premium quality while many of the Imersys properties produce lower grade and lower value material.
> Maybe you can just give a rough idea what the next steps are, how far advanced the financing and offtake talks
> have been advanced. The next steps include:
> · Infill drilling to update the resource estimate.
> · Complete work to optimize magnesia process scale-up.
> · Complete a pre-feasibility study.
> · Continue community engagement with First Nations, Metis Nation, and all levels of government.
> Talc products supplied to end use customers in the plastic and coatings markets have been tested and given favourable reviews compared to incumbent material. Marketing studies have confirmed that TTM talc is desirable in the target marketplace.
> Magnesia product has been supplied to end use customers with test results pending. There is universally positive interest in TTM magnesia from North American end users.

> Here at wallstreetonline we cannot really gauge what the whole PEA actually means. The PEA means Globex is sufficiently confident in the project to commit significantly more funds and time to advance the project toward production. It also will allow potential investors to gauge their interest in investing in the project.
>
> Thanks for taking your time , hope the PDAC was rewarding,
>
> regards,
>
> Alfred , Munich

[WilliamTell]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.880.948 von WilliamTell am 09.03.12 23:11:26

Betreffend Cash-Zahlungen von 1,075,000 kann ich sagen, dass 375,000 CAD schon im Q2 gezahlt wurden und die anderen 700,000 jeweil in April 2012, 2013 und 2014 fällig wird. Die exakte Höhe der einzelnen Tranchen kenne ich nicht, aber es kann mal davon ausgegangen werden, dass es normalerweise in etwa äquivalente Beträge sein werden.

Gruss William

[WilliamTell]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.878.580 von crystalsonic am 09.03.12 16:22:44

Mag Copper hat kürzlich ein Bohrprogramm auf Magusi begonnen. Das neue Projekt das dazugekommen ist stammt aus dem Portefeuille von Trelawney, die sich bei Mag Copper eingekauft haben. Sie zahlen 1 Mio Cash plus eben dieses Projekt, an dessen Namen ich mich gerade nicht erinnere und erhalten dafür eine gewisse Anzahl Aktien an Mag Copper.

Produziert wurde seinerzeit auf der Fabie Bay und parallel wurde Magusi für die Produktion vorbereitet.

Wir kennen ja alle wie es geendet hat. Die Arbeiten mussten eingestellt werden. Aufgrund des heute bekannten Ressourcenstandes lohnt es sich wahrscheinlich nicht, die Fabie Bay wieder zu eröffnen. Zuerst müssten durch Bohrarbeiten zusätzliche Ressourcen nachgewiesen werden.

Deshalb muss nun Mag Copper das aussichtsreichere Magusi vorwärts bringen, das eine viel längere Minenlebensdauer aufweist. Wenn ich alles richtig gecheckt habe, müssen sie für Magusi ebenfalls weitere zusätzliche Ressourcen ausgewiesen werden, bevor man eine Finanzierung erhält.

Die relativ langen Termine die gewährt wurden sind auf die Unsicherheit in der Weltwirtschaft zurückzuführen. Seinerzeit war Magusi ungefähr 6-9 vor Produktionsphase.

Gruss William