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    100% mit Gold. --> St Barbara Mines (Seite 255)

    eröffnet am 06.12.05 09:02:23 von
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     Ja Nein
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.12.08 12:23:51
      Beitrag Nr. 4.104 ()
      Hi Faustus,

      vielen Dank für deinen Beitrag.

      Ich stimmt dir zu, dass Vergleiche schwierig sind.

      Meinen Vergleich mit den anderen Minen sehe ich aber aus dem Blickwinkel der Performance über verschiedene Zeiträume zu ähnlichen Marktbedingungen, -sentiments.

      Deswegen scheint es mir durchaus statthaft und hilfreich, unterschiedliche mittelgroße australische Goldproduzenten miteinander zu vergleichen. Wie will man denn auch sonst herausbekommen, wer zu gleichen Marktbedinungen (z.B. Gold-/Ölpreis, AUD/USD)eine gute Peformance hat?

      Deswegen ist dein Vergleich zu deinen anderen "Raketen" (für mich ist SBM keine Rakete, sondern ein relativ solides Invest in Gold) eigentlich nicht statthaft - wobei mir das natürlich auch in den Sinn kommt, wenn ich mit der CoBa 70 % im Minus bin und mit SBM "nur" 50. :yawn:

      Ich nehme an, du hast keine vergleichbaren mittelgroßen australische Goldproduzenten in deinem Portfolio?

      :p
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.12.08 12:07:59
      Beitrag Nr. 4.103 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.163.438 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 07.12.08 23:42:37Hallo,

      will mich auch mal wieder zu Wort melden :)
      Also wenn ich mir so meine anderen "Rohstoff-Raketen" ansehe, und ich habe alle relativ spät gekauft, als ich schon dachte es geht nicht tiefer, Babs war sogar eine der frühen ^^, dann hält dieses Schiff noch deutlich am besten seinen Kurs.

      Bei anderen stehe ich nach 1-2 Wochen schon wieder mit 20% im roten bereich, und Barbara schippert konstant so um die 10% unter Einstandskurs durch die Gegend.

      Klar, man kann natürlich immer sagen: Wo ist mein Gewinn, doch momentan bin ich schon froh sagen zu können: Ey, gutes Invest, immehin nicht so ein großer Verlust. Wenn Babs nur diesen Kurs weiter hält, dann hat sie alle Chancen beim (für mich sicheren) Rohstoffrebound aus einer stabilen Ausgangslage gut zu profitieren.

      Und was soll der Vergleich mit den "ach so tollen" anderen Goldaktien, das sind doch Äpfel und Birnen. Immer wieder vergleicht hier jemand Babs mit einer anderen "super laufenden" Mine. Und ich frag mich da:

      1. Warum nimmt man nicht (so hab Ich es in Statistik gelernt) eine gleichbleibende Referenz? Denn auch diese Aktien, die heute mal super sind sind dann in 3 Tagen wieder wo sie herkommen. Also, was für eine Aussagekraft ausser Frust hat sowas? 0!

      2. Ja, es gibt ein paar Aktien die wesentlich besser performen, aber das iost doch noch lächerlicher. Wie wäre es denn wenn wir den Kindern in der Schule nur noch 6en in Sport geben würden, weil Sie ja im benchmark zu den Olympioniken nicht wirklich was auf dem Kasten haben? Das ist doch genau die gleiche Sülze :)

      3. Begreift denn so mancher hier nicht: Babsie ist nicht die Aktie der größten Phantasie, sondern für mich ein fundamentaler Produzent, und "Outperformer" wie Bravo etc. bieten lange nicht die Sicherheit wirklich zu produzieren etc. pp., aber an der Börse sind eben oft Phantasien mehr Wert als Fakten.

      So, hab' mal n bissl länger geschrieben :) ist natürlich alles meine persönliche Meinung, mehr nicht!

      Viel Spaß allen Longies, und @Shorties: Grill u later, Alligator!
      Avatar
      schrieb am 07.12.08 23:42:37
      Beitrag Nr. 4.102 ()
      Shortage of Gold could push price to $10,000
      2008-12-03 08:55:00

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      By Justice Litle
      As 78 million baby boomers head for retirement, they will be faced with the challenge of saving like they’ve never saved before. Where are all those savings going to go?

      There has been a multi-decade decline of U.S. consumer saving habits. For the better part of a quarter century, Americans found less need to save with each passing year. The flipside of this savings decline, of course, was an epic spending boom. People saved less because they bought more – all too often on credit.

      As the boom rolled on, credit lines were maxed out; we bought as much “stuff” as we could get our hands on. The savings rate even went negative at the height of the housing bubble – not because people were feeling cash poor, but because homeowners across the land felt gloriously flush.

      A Time to Save

      To everything there is a season, Ecclesiastes tells us. Now the long Indian summer of American consumption has passed. The winter of our discontent is here – and that means it’s time to save.

      Over the next decade, if not longer, consumer savings rates will rise. After falling below zero at the lowest point – as Americans spent all they earned and then borrowed on top of that – the only feasible direction is up.

      This, in large part, is why the markets are in a funk. Consumer confidence hit an all-time low in October, as buyers went on strike against big-ticket items like appliances and cars. Retailers have been crushed (with only a handful of exceptions).

      The longer that wallets remain shut, the harder it will be for the consumer-driven U.S. economy to pull out of its funk. After 25 years of decline, the move toward greater saving is a paradigm shift. There will be big losers and big winners as a result of this shift. (As mentioned, Zach and I cover both in our “Consumer Shockwave” discussion.)

      The question posed here is this: If America is heading into a long-term savings uptrend, where are all those savings going to go?

      Here Come the Boomers

      The “baby boomers” are the post-WWII generation born between 1946 and 1964. There are an estimated 76 million to 78 million boomers in total – and the first of them are hitting retirement age even as you read this.

      78 million is a pretty big number. It’s hard to get your head around it. I first heard this analogy a few years back and it stuck with me:

      Imagine a wooden footbridge crossing a wide river. The name of the river is “retirement.” The Americans crossing over the bridge are all baby boomers. The bridge is packed from handrail to handrail. On the near side of the river, the boomers spill out at a steady pace. On the far side is a bottleneck – a mind-blowing mass of people headed towards the narrow mouth of the bridge. They cover all the land surrounding the bridge for half a mile in either direction. Over a slight hill, down into the valley and beyond, it’s just a teeming sea of people – 78 million strong – as far as the eye can see. It will be nearly twenty years before the last boomer straggles across.

      A portion of boomers simply won’t retire at all – but working into one’s 80s and beyond is not an appealing prospect for most people. And nearly all boomers, retired or not, will need to add to their savings cushion as a buffer against rising medical costs.

      And thus, in a very literal sense, the boomers will soon have to save like they’ve never saved before. But what kind of options do they have?

      Pick Your Poison

      Savers can lay out their options in five broad categories: stocks, bonds, commodities, cash and real estate.

      The categories are fairly self-explanatory. Cash includes foreign currency as well as U.S. dollars. (For our many non-U.S. readers, the dollar counts as foreign currency.) Commodities would include precious metals like gold and silver. There are other options, of course – like investing in collectibles or putting capital into a business – but these are the basic five.

      All five options carry risk. We’ve seen that with real estate. Remember the old expression “safe as houses”? Looks like we’ll have to retire that one into the 20th century anachronism file. (“Safe as milk” is another one, thanks to recent events in China.)
      So now your home is no longer the “best investment you could ever make” – a foolish bit of establishment wisdom that was allowed to run wild – and probably will not be for a long, long time.

      Once home prices finally bottom out, they could flat-line for years as the supply glut is worked off... or else rise at an anemic rate barely in keeping with the pace of inflation.

      We might see boomers throw a little extra elbow grease into paying off their homes and reducing overall debt loads – but that doesn’t exactly count as saving. The trouble with feeding money into a mortgage is that you won’t see that money again for years (unless you take out a new loan or sell the home at a price you can live with).

      Never Enough Gold

      So what about gold? Could all the boomers just say to hell with paper assets of any kind, let’s buy gold instead?

      Unfortunately there isn’t enough physical gold in existence to make that work.

      At current market prices, there is something like $4 trillion worth of gold in the world. That’s less than the bailout tab thus far... most of that gold is not for sale anyway... and the amount of new gold mined each year is miniscule. So if boomers tried to really pile into gold, we would see the dollars-per-ounce price zoom past the Dow.

      Heck, we may eventually see that one day anyway – $10,000 per ounce anyone? – but the point is, gold and most other hard asset markets are just too small to handle the flood of savings on their own. As boomers get serious about shoring up their futures, the flows will just get too big.

      This is good news for commodities overall, of course. Hard assets will make a roaring comeback when we realize the full extent of what 2008 has wrought – a deluge of funny money stimulus, plus finance cutbacks morphed into major supply cutbacks for every commodity of importance.

      But given all that, savers will still need other places to go besides hard assets. The plumbing of the commodities markets can only handle so much water pressure.


      Cash Could Crash

      Going with cash – i.e. money in a mattress – is another dubious option.

      The dollar and the yen have rocketed higher thanks to the great unwinding of 2008 as global equity positions are reversed... but how long can that strength really last? Do savers really want to put their faith in fiat currency as the Fed’s stimulus efforts run deep into the trillions?

      Consider this eye-opening bit of research from voltagecreative.com

      As you can see, the 2008 bailout tab thus far is more than all the above items combined. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we have spent as much treasure fighting the credit crisis as we did fighting World War I.

      And the costs are still mounting – not just in the States but around the globe.All in all, that makes it a pretty lousy time to have a big slug of your net worth in paper currency.

      Bonds No Good

      So how about U.S. treasury bonds then, long one of the safest, deepest, most liquid markets in the world? Will the boomers all just pile into bonds and content themselves with yields below the true cost of inflation?

      Only if they’re foolish. Treasury bonds are literally the worst deal ever right now. The yield on 10-year U.S. treasuries has fallen below 3%, a record low, as the Fed openly manipulates the bond markets.

      Remember that a bond’s yield is an inverse function of its price. Savers who put their money into government bonds now are going long at record high prices. By any rational assessment, they are loading up on bonds at a screaming top.

      This course of action could only make sense for two reasons:

      You think we are headed for economic armageddon, Dr. Peter Venkman style – “Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!” – and that the nosebleed price of treasuries will climb even higher (sending yields yet lower as they asymptote above zero).

      You intend to hold your treasuries to maturity, and actually believe that 3% a year ballpark is a good deal. (Which in turn would imply that the stock market is toast for the next decade or so, and furthermore that real-world inflation will stay well below 3% until your bonds mature. Good luck with that.)

      Where Does that Leave Us?

      Sherlock Holmes pointed out that when you eliminate all competing options, it’s the remaining option you have to go with – regardless of how improbable it may seem.

      We’ve seen that the long cycle of consumer savings decline is over, and a new cycle of saving is set to begin. We’ve furthermore seen that 78 million baby boomers are preparing to make their way across the retirement bridge – and the vast majority have a huge savings job ahead of them.

      Last not but least, we’ve seen that out of the five options available – stocks, bonds, commodities, cash and real estate – four of them are either deeply unattractive (cash, bonds, real estate) or unfeasible as a full solution (commodities markets too small to handle the flows).

      Believe it or not, that leaves equities as the only real long-term option left. The Fed and Treasury know this too.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 07.12.08 23:28:15
      Beitrag Nr. 4.101 ()
      So kann es anfangen. Wenn mal die kleinen Leute kleine Goldmünzen kaufen, und die verdoppeln sich im Wert irgendwann die nächste Zeit, dann kaufen alle anderen kleinen Leute ganz viele kleine Goldmünzen. Die physiche Nachfrage wird so groß, dass der Preis immer weiter steigt, die Nachfrage erzeugt die Nachfrage erzeugt die Nachfrage. Die Produktion kann nicht schritthalten und der Goldpreis explodiert. Wenn nicht in diesen Zeiten, wann denn dann? Wir haben harte krasse Zeiten mit harten krassen Events. Die Goldhausse steht uns aber erst noch bevor. Meine Einschätzung ist, dass das innerhalb der nächsten 1-2 Jahre passieren wird.

      :rolleyes:


      India Post is selling gold coins like hotcakes
      2008-12-04 17:55:00
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      Commodity Online
      BANGALORE: The Indian government is extending a novel scheme to sell gold coins through post offices to several states in the wake of its stupendous success in the last two months.

      India Post in association with World Gold Council and Reliance Money launched the innovative plan in October. The scheme offers 24-c gold coins in 0.5g, 1.5g and 8g varieties and people can buy gold coins through post offices.

      In the first phase, gold coins in the denomination of half gram, one gram, 5 grams and 8 grams were be sold in over 100 post offices in Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat. The initiative was then introduced in Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.

      On Friday, India Post chief postmaster general M P Rajan said that the gold coins selling scheme has been extended to the southern state of Karnataka.

      "Under the scheme launched on October 15th in Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, in the first phase, 8,500 gold coins were sold in the first 15 days," said Rajan.

      Each coin comes with certification from Valcambi Switzerland and quality packaging, as well as a number and assayer certificate. The gold coins are packed in a sealed cover with the certification from Valcambi, Switzerland with the India Post logo.

      India Post is offering 5% special discount to its customers during this festive season which will be valid up till the end of the current month.

      India Post, considering the demand from its customers, has taken the initiative to keep post offices open on the festival day to sell gold coins to interested customers.

      Department of Posts has been selling 24 carat ‘Gold Coins’ through select Post Offices effective from 15th October 2008. Apart from enhancing the revenue of the Department, this has enabled India Post to usher in a new image of India Post as a modern and relevant organization in all areas of life.

      Rajan said India Post has been overwhelmed with the very good response from the public to this new initiative. The Diwali festive season last month had prompted a large number of customers, specially Government servants and small investors to queue up in the Post office to get gold coins.

      Small investors are buying gold coins from post office for two obvious reasons. First, the gold coin prices are low as compared to other suppliers. This makes the service very competitive and economical. Second, Post Office is focusing on the low-end denominations like 0.5 gm., 1 gm., 5 gm., and 8 gm making them more accessible.

      Gold is the latest addition to a range of retail activity that India Post has already taken up. India Post has been selling various products under Retail Post category and there is sustained growth in the revenue from these activities. Post Office sells UPSC applications and university applications, it retails Darjeeling Tea in West Bengal, it markets Aloe Vera products in Gujarat and it takes orders for distribution of Prasadams of various temples in Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.

      Nicht wirklich lustig, aber mit SBM sind wir gewappnet. Hartgesotten muss man allerdings bleiben, wenn man nicht zu früh verkaufen will. Meine Strategie ist, nach spätestens 200 % die Hälfte zu verkaufen. Das heißt, von meinen 50 k zu EK 0,20 Euro bei 0,80 Euro 25 k abstossen. Das wären ca. 1,60 AUD, knapp 60 % über ATH. Nennt mich zu euphorisch, ich halte das alles nicht für ausgeschlossen.

      Was habt ihr für eine Strategie? Gibt es auch Bären unter euch? Kann ich mir zwar nicht vorstellen, aber was müsste passieren, dass ihr mit Verlust verkauft? Wo zieht ihr die Reißleine?

      lg :cool:

      PS: Was wäre, wenn ein Land anfängt, als Währung Goldmünzen rauszugeben? Das wäre der Wiedereinstieg in den Goldstandard. Wenn ein Land damit anfängt, würden andere folgen?

      (fyi: ich habe ein Glas Glühwein hinter mir, die Phantasie geht durch ;))
      Avatar
      schrieb am 07.12.08 23:02:45
      Beitrag Nr. 4.100 ()
      Es wird immer spannender ...

      ein netter Artikel über Goldmanipulation von heute: :eek::eek::eek:

      Is Comex manipulating Gold prices?
      2008-12-07 06:35:00

      By Richard B
      I wondered if you’d seen the article linked below, "The Manipulation of Gold Prices" by James Conrad that was featured on the seekingalpha.com website on 12/4/08.

      It’s one of the best pieces I’ve ever seen written by someone outside of JSMineset and brings together the subjects of Comex gold price manipulation, the Fed’s efforts to control the value of the U.S. dollar, quantitative easing and the Fed’s eventual need (and design) to devalue the dollar vs. gold.

      The article is too complex and wide-ranging to be quickly summarized, but some of the more interesting passages are as follows:

      "The Federal Reserve must now make a tough choice. In the past, Federal Reserve Chairmen may have felt it necessary to support regular attacks on gold prices to dissuade conservative people from putting a majority of their capital into gold. Now, however, the world economy needs much higher gold prices in order to devalue paper money, not against other currencies in a "beggar thy neighbor" policy, but against itself. This can jump start the system. If the Fed continued to support gold price suppression, that would collapse the stock market far deeper than they can afford, most insurers will end up bankrupt, and there will be no hope of avoiding Great Depression II."

      "Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman knows that Bernanke’s long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of most prior Fed Chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of former President Franklin Roosevelt’s gold revaluation/dollar devaluation, back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression."

      Interestingly, the author suggests that some of the recent taking physical delivery of gold at the Comex may be attributable to "smart players at big firms" buying gold at the Comex to re-sell into the spot market for a profit in a process he calls, "backwardization." In support of this theory he makes an assertion I have only seen you make before, that:

      "In spite of the ostensible existence of a so-called "London fix," 96% of all OTC transactions are secret and unreported. The transactions happen solely between two parties, and are done opaquely, in complete darkness." The current London fix may well be just as fake as the bank interest rate reports that comprised LIBOR proved to be, just a few months ago."

      His predictions about the value of gold in the near future are very encouraging and may provide some needed solace to members of our community.

      "The price of our pretty yellow metal is about to explode, and it is probably going to soar, eventually, to levels that not even most gold bugs imagine. COMEX gold shorts will be playing the price a bit longer, in an attempt to shake out some remaining independent leveraged longs. Once that is finished, however, and it will be finished soon, the price will start to rise very quickly."


      http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Is-Comex-manipulating-Go…

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      schrieb am 05.12.08 18:59:21
      Beitrag Nr. 4.099 ()
      Sorry für OT, aber Öl ist echt krass!!!

      :cool:

      Avatar
      schrieb am 05.12.08 18:57:24
      Beitrag Nr. 4.098 ()
      Billiger als 10 Dollar kann ich mir nicht vorstellen! Spätestens da müsste Schluss sein!!!

      :eek:

      Avatar
      schrieb am 05.12.08 17:35:47
      Beitrag Nr. 4.097 ()
      Brent aktuell schon in den 30ern: 39,69 Dollar. :rolleyes:

      Dass es bis 25 runterrauscht, halte ich für übertrieben. Könnt ihr euch vorstellen, den Liter für 50 cents zu tanken? Ein Tank voll für 25 Euro?

      Aber der Kommentar zeigt, dass die Analysten anfangen, in die andere Richtung zu übertreiben, genauso als im Sommer Kurse von 200 ausposaunt wurden. Ich denke, demnächst dreht Öl wieder und alle sind froh, dass es wieder teurer wird, denn das heißt, dass die Rezession vielleicht mal wieder vorbei ist.

      :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

      Gold hat sich wacker gehalten in dem Ölabwärtsstrudel. Muss man mal konstatieren.

      ;)
      Avatar
      schrieb am 05.12.08 15:52:22
      Beitrag Nr. 4.096 ()
      Der Ölpreis war hier in den letzten Tagen Thema. Hier eine Einschätzung eines Analysten, der bislang den Ölpreis gut vorhergesagt hat:
      Merrill Lynch Rohstoff Analyst Francisco Blanch : “A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC cuts are required. In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations.”

      Grüße
      agram;)
      Avatar
      schrieb am 05.12.08 12:24:45
      Beitrag Nr. 4.095 ()
      Keine Ursache, ich weiß eh nicht, ob ich mit meinen Annahmen richtig liege. Wer weiß das schon? Nicht mal die sog. Experten ...

      Eines zeigt sich aber wieder: Die Unterstützungslinie hält gut, obwohl die Aktienmärkte und der Goldkurs schwächeln.

      Das ist doch schon was!

      ;)
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      100% mit Gold. --> St Barbara Mines