Eine Diskussion zu THOMAS COOK GRP/Arcandor???? A0MR3W (Seite 2591)

[Hamburgspook]

Ich warte noch den Ende Mai/Juni ab, wenn es nicht zu sehr Down geht, dann werde ich mein Invest neu Überdenken. Long war zwar auch meine Idee, aber ich kann zur Zeit noch mit ´nem guten Plus raus. Der Kurs wird sich erst bei einem Übernahmeversuch oder sehr guten Zahlen Up bewegen. Sollten diese Zahlen nicht erreicht werden, was zur Zeit meine persönliche Vermutung ist, man schaue sich auch mal Mitbewerber wie TUI an, die genauso kämpfen, wird hier gar nichts passieren. Eventuell ´ne kleine Zockerei die durch große Instis ausgelöst werden kann, wenn Sie es gerade wollen.

[mhalb]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.151.264 von sunwolf am 11.05.12 09:47:58

Hier kann man das Vorjahr eigentlich nicht unbedingt als Vergleich ansetzen. Wenn ich mir den Kurs war der im letzten Jahr zum 2. Quartal ausgewiesene Verlust noch akzeptiert. Daraus schließe ich, dass sich zu dem Zeitpunkt die politischen Umwälzungen zwar am Laufen waren, sich aber noch nicht auswirkten weil Urlaube eben doch zu einem grpßen Teil im Voraus gebucht werde. Interessant werden die nun zwei folgenden Quartale, weil da der arabische Frühling voll zuschlug.... mal sehen wie der Vergleich dann aussieht. Wenn sich dann keine Änderung im Vergleich zum Vorjahr ergibt werde ich meine Einstellung vermutlich übedenken. Wobei es schon deshalb besser werden dürfte weil eigentlich dieses Jahr die ausserordentlichen Abschreibungen wegfallen dürften.

[avalus]

Leute macht euch doch nicht gegenseitig verrückt. Die Nachricht wurde meiner Meinung nach mit Absicht heute heraus gegeben. Denkt daran , dass die Banken ein Wörtchen bei TC mitreden.Und die wollen nicht nur ein Stückchen von großen Kuchen haben.

[GelsenSzene]

Das Management von TC ist schon genial, Good news am Wochenende zu veröffentlichen wenn Montags ein Feiertag ist und die Nachricht bis dahin 100 mal nach Schwachstellen durchgekaut ist und Bad news am Freitag damit die zittrigen die Aktien schmeissen.
Nochmal die Zahlen von TUI sind nicht besser, aber wo steht TC !

[sunwolf]

***Netiquette aus***

Zitat von sunwolf: Nach dem Schock Morgen werden dann in den nächsten Monaten die positiven News das Bild bestimmen.

***Netiquette an***

OK, die Veröffentlichung ist erst heute aber die Zahlen sind wie von mir erwartet... 100 Mio. Pfund mehr Verlust am im katastrophalen letzten Geschäftsjahr. So schlimm hätte selbst ich es nicht erwartet!

Ich fange an mir ernsthaft Sorgen um TC zu machen. Ich glaube nur an einer Übernahme könnte man noch mitverdienen. Denkt auch daran, dass bei einem sale-and-lease-back immer einer mitverdienen will. Unterm Strich also außer kurzfristiger Liquidität ein schlechter Deal für TC.

[avalus]

Also jetzt haben alle die das Handtuch geworfen die sich mehr von den Zahlen erhofft hatten.
Aber die Zahlen liegen ja garnicht mal so schlecht gegenüber den Konkurrenz

[illmatix]

moinsen,

soviel zu den banken und der absicht kurse steigen zu lassen hahahaha

solche affen echt

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/jp-morgan-verzo…

[Chris_trade]

uih uih

[ALF-FRED]

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/4922422-thomas-coo…

[ALF-FRED]

Stock to Watch: Thomas Cook Group




By Edmond Jackson | Fri, 11/05/2012 - 00:00






This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

News that Europe's second biggest travel operator has agreed a £1.4 billion refinancing to end-May 2015, also a new finance director, initially appear encouraging for the now FTSE SmallCap shares in Thomas Cook Group (TCG), currently around 22p.

Last year, TCG plunged from over 200p to as low as 10p, amid fears over debts approaching £1 billion and strength of cash flows; there was a real worry whether it could survive, especially with a double-dip recession potentially affecting consumer spending.

The banks have continued support and a new finance director joined, which appears to vindicate investors buying around the lows - who have nicely doubled their money.

I would still be cautious however, and monitor the situation closely: for example, will the new finance director actually buy a serious amount of shares - once settled in and having assessed his challenge - or rely on risk-free share options? Will his remuneration package (when disclosed) include an equity element or will he be rewarded mainly in cash?

Some finance directors do very well for themselves, helping sort out challenged companies during a recession, but the ultimate beneficiaries are not always the historical shareholders. This new FD was previously in the same role at Kwik-Fit having "played a key role in implementing a business development plan to reduce the risk in a highly leveraged business". However Kwik-Fit was delisted and passed through two private equity firms then acquired by a Japanese trading company.

From an end-March trading update it looks as if management is stabilising the group and customers are not being deterred by last year's bad publicity, as was feared. Bear in mind that although sterling is now at a four-year high versus the euro, which ought to boost holiday sales here, the UK only represents about a third of group revenue, while continental Europe is the clear majority. So currency volatility is a mixed factor.

Possibly TCG is too complex a situation for the bankers - who are effectively in control - to disentangle it from the stockmarket in the medium term. This new financing package and a completed strategic review provide context to achieve a recovery programme - and the search for a new chief executive is said to be progressing well. Turnaround evolves in the UK business, the northern and German businesses have been doing well, and those underperforming such as in Canada, France and Russia are being addressed.

There is also a modest alignment of interest between bankers and shareholders in the refinancing where, in addition to easing covenant tests until December and a 1% amendment fee, warrants for 5% of the issued share capital are included. The downside is whether, to put the group on a stable financial footing, there is ultimately dilution that impacts existing holders while leaving a still-useful bonus for the banks.

The end-September 2011 balance sheet will however continue to deter many investors. A net asset position of nearly £1.2 billion is derived with over £3.5 billion intangible assets, and current liabilities are 2.3 times current assets - for example trade payables being nearly twice trade receivables. Fixed assets are mainly aircraft; the balance sheet is a no-no if you seek definitive asset backing. Cash-at-bank appears to run annually at about £350 million.

The key problem is TCG generating too little cash flow for net debt of about £3.4 billion falling to £3.1 billion as projected after the disposal programme. This is why the consensus of city advice remains "sell", with Panmure Gordon for example targeting 10p a share.

Morgan Stanley however contends TCG is fighting back with a higher chance of survival than the market expects and targets 25p a share, albeit with a "very high risk" caveat. But if that is realistic, upside of barely 14% is not worthwhile anyway considering the risks. With stockmarkets jittery again over eurozone woes, the months ahead may offer better-quality shares at attractive prices.

The consensus is for about £80 million pre-tax profit for the current year to end-September, although one broker projects an £81 million loss as part of its "sell" advice - if affirming forecasts for £90 million or better in 2012/13. In context of £135 million net finance costs last year however, further disposals also sale-and-leaseback deals are needed to balance the situation.

So I remain cautious of TCG; the shares have enjoyed a recovery bounce with the New Year risk rally, probably helped by enough buyers thinking this is still a big-name company with about £10 billion turnover despite the shares' small-cap status. It is premature and highly speculative though, to define intrinsic value. The main hope is the banks are in TCG so deep that careful attention has been given to a realistic refinancing, bolstered by a new FD joining who must believe it can work. Let's see if and when he buys shares.

By way of comparison at about 180p a share, TUI Travel (TT.) in the FTSE 250 index does not endure massive debt and offers a prospective yield over 6%, which is twice covered by earnings forecasts. These assume however, growth in normalised pre-tax profit from £234 million to a consensus £352 million in the year to end-September 2012, then £403 million in 2012/13. While the 8 May interims were in line with management expectations, a cautious note was struck in the outlook statement. So forecasts here similarly leave no room for disappointment should European consumer spending come under further pressure.

TUI and TCG derive a majority of revenue from continental Europe. Broker views differ although the recent consensus even on the much sounder TUI has been "sell" despite forecasts that earnings will recover over 2008/09 levels. This is another share with negative net tangible assets.

Active traders - long or short - may find interest following both shares, as there is scope for worthwhile movement in the medium term. Best see how holiday buying evolves.

For more Stocks to Watch, visit Edmond Jackson's archive.