Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.:
43.190.560 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 21.05.12
10:21:47Die meisten haben ihre Kohle schon verbrannt.
Das Problem bei BGM ist deren Infopolitik und somit hält sich jeder
zurück.
Hatte schon darüber nach gedacht 10000 stk nochmal nach zukaufen.
Bin zu keiner Entsch. gekommen.LG
Hieir ein sehr inter. Artikel
Gold triple bottom & stocks oversold (short term) – Now
what?
Profitimes | May 20, 2012
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Since the original article was very long, I hereby provide an
excerpt of the article “Gold Triple Bottom & Stocks Oversold
(Short Term) – Now What?” (Subscribers, click HERE to read the
entire article).
On Gold:
Gold has now made a bullish reversal on a weekly basis, as price
rallied sharply on Thursday and Friday.
Support held, which means Gold could be on the verge of setting a
double/tripple bottom around $1,550:
Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com
On a monthly basis, we can see that the Bollinger Bands are
narrowing, indicating that volatility has been low over the past
couple of months (although it might not have felt like that for
some traders). Volatility will not stay this low forever, so Gold
is now getting ready for the next BIG MOVE. Notice that I am
talking about a MONTHLY chart here, I am not talking about the
day-to-day volatility (which has been quite extreme from time to
time). This also means that it might take several more months
before the next BIG move actually starts. However, keep an eye on
the monthly Bollinger Bands, and follow the trend when the next Big
Move starts.
Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com
On Silver:
Shorter term, we can see that the Commercials have reduced their
Net Short positions in Silver to 15,980 contracts, a level not seen
since late 2011, a time when Silver set a bottom at roughly the
same price level as where it is trading today:
On Gold Miners:
The chart below illustrates the fact that Sentiment in Gold Mining
Stocks is extremely low (illustrated by the Bullish Percent Index,
which shows the % of stocks with a Buy signal on the Point &
Figure Chart) . The green vertical lines show that almost every
time sentiment is depressed, the HUI index is about to turn UP. The
only 2 times it didn’t mark a bottom was in late 2008 and more
recently, a couple of weeks ago.
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
Not only is sentiment in Gold stocks depressed, it is also
depressed relative to sentiment in the SP500, as illustrated by the
chart below, which plots the ratio of $BPGDM by $BPSPX (the % of
stocks in the SP500 with a Buy signal on the Point & Figure
chart).
We can see that whenever sentiment in Gold miners (lower part) was
depressed, it was not just “depressed”, but it was also depressed
relative to sentiment in the SP500, and soon sentiment turned up in
favor of Gold mining stocks
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
On Equity markets:
The SP500 has now reached the 61.80% Retracement Level from the
bottom in October 2011 to the top in April 2012.
Bollinger Bands are still widening, indicating that the Bottom is
still not in sight. We haven’t seen real capitulation yet, although
the SP500 was down 11 out of 13 trading days, with a maximum 0.25%
rally on May 10th.
Next support comes in at 1,250-1,260 (50% Retracement Level &
previous resistance line).
Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com
…
52.40% of the stocks in the SP500 are trading at the lowest level
in 50 days, which is 5 standard deviations from the mean, which
doesn’t occur that often:
Chart courtesy indexindicators.com
The following chart shows that the best times to buy stocks was in
1949 and 1982, and the best time to sell stocks was in the mid-60′s
and in 2000. If history is any guide, then we should wait to buy
stocks until this cycle is finished. This means it could take
another 8-10 years before the next big Bull market starts:
Chart courtesy thechartstore.com
I then checked out the SP500 Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Index
itself. We can clearly see that the index has been in a
consolidation phase since 2000, just like from 1929 to 1949 (20
years) and from 1962 to 1982 (20 years). If this cycle
(consolidation phase) also lasts 20 years, it means we have to wait
until 2020 before the next bull market starts, which is in line
with the statement above:
Chart courtesy thechartstore.com
On Bonds:
TLT is trading at 24.98% above its 150 weeks Exponential Moving
Average and 29.82% above its 200 weeks Exponential Moving Average,
which is quite stretched:
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
In the original article, we look at Sentiment Charts, Put/Call
ratio’s, UP issues Ratios, and more.
The entire article is available for subscribers only.
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