Diskussion zu Silver Elephant Mining Corp, ehemals Prophecy Development Corp. (Seite 2584)
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.041.891 von cijay am 20.01.13 10:47:39Moin,
wenn man den Chart sich betrachtet, so habe ich ein gutes Gefühl für die nächsten Wochen, mit der Bedingung das die ausstehenden Meldungen schnellstens kommen.
wenn man den Chart sich betrachtet, so habe ich ein gutes Gefühl für die nächsten Wochen, mit der Bedingung das die ausstehenden Meldungen schnellstens kommen.
interessante Berechnung aus Stockhouse:
Below is a preliminary stab on the 600 MW PP, which is 1/6th of Prophecy's Coal's potential future power production. It doesn't consider Prophecy Coal's other assets such as its Mongolian Coal Mines and its Canadian interests such as Wellgreen.
Assumptions
-The Chandgana-tal Power Plant gets the go ahead and Prophecy Coal obtains a 20% carried interest.
-The initial PPA is $77.50 MW/h. It is averaged from Steag's Feasibility Study dated 12/17/2012 at $60 MW/h and the Mongolia Wind Farm tariff of $95.00 MW/h, then the initial $77.50 PPA is increased by 1.5% each year after the first year of operation. This assumption is less than Steag's 2% semi annual estimate..
-The Power Plant goes on line producing 150 MW during 2016, then adds 150MW to its annual capacity for each year until it acheives 600 MW in 2019.
-Operating Costs are from Steag's Feasibility Study dated 12/17/2012 which stated “The plant’s power production cost is US $0.023/kWh (including coal). Capital recovery, including loan principal and interest payments, is estimated to be US $0.025/kWh.”
Steag is a German firm specializing in the planning, financing, construction and operation of highly efficient, thermal power plants for fossil fuels. Steag starting PPA of $60 MW/h had 2% semi annual increases. I believe the 2% semi annual increases were very high. For instance a $60MW PPA at year 30 (59 2% increases) would be $193 MW/h. The assumed 1.5% annual increases to the starting PPA of $77.50 MW/h gives a PPA of $119.35 after 30 years.
- Financing is partly in accordance with the proposal from Sheet 25 of the September 2012 Corporate Presentation. The first two year CAPEX totaling $490 million is divided into 2 loans of $245 million for 2016 and 2017 respectively with annual interest at 5.5%. For 2018 and 2019 the CAPEX of $350 million is also divided into two separate loans of $175 million with annual interest at 5.5%.
The Loans as envisioned
The 2016 Loan of $245 Million at 5.5% over a 10 years term requires annual P&I of $32.50M
The 2017 Loan of $245 million at 5.5% over a 9 year term requires annual P&I of $35.24M
The 2018 Loan of $175 million at 5.5% over a 8 year term requires annual P&I of $27.63M
The 2019 Loan of $175 million at 5.5% over a 7 year term requires annual P&I of $30.79M
Loan P & I sums: 1st year $32.5M, 2nd year $67.74M, 3rd year $95.37M and 4th to 10th year $126.16M
The 5.5% interest rate selected is assumed.
The PPA is set at $77.50 per MW/h with no increase during 2016, then annual increases of 1.5% for each year thereafter. For 2017 the PPA is $78.66 per MW/h. For 2018 the PPA is $79.84 per MW/h. For 2019 the PPA is $81.04, For 2025 the PPA is $88.61 per MW/h. For 2026 the first year of no loan payments. the PPA is $89.94 per MW/h, for 2036 (yr 20) is $102.84 per MW/h and for 2046 (yr 30) it is $119.35 per MW/h
Annual Sales for selected years
2016 sales will be $77.50 x 150 x 24 x 365, or $101.84 M
2017 sales will be $78.66 x 300 x 24 x 365, or $206.72 M
2018 sales will be $79.84 x 450 x 24 x 365, or $314.73 M
2019 sales will be $81.04 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $425.95M
2026 sales will be $89.94 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $472.72M (no P & I during 2026)
2036 sales will be $102.84 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $540.53M
2046 sales will be $119.35 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $627.30M
Cost and non cost percentages per Stieg based on the assumed PPA
(0.023/0.0775)100 = 29.58%, (Plant power production costs is US $0.023/kWh (including coal)
(0.025/0.0775)100 = 32.16%, (Capital recovery costs, including loan principal and interest payments)
100 - (29.58 + 32.16) = 38.26% non cost
Selected yearly Sales vs P & I and capital recovery
0.3216 x 101.84 = $32.75M > than 1st year P & I of $32.50M, or $0.25M positive
0.3216 x 206.72 = $66.48M < than 2nd year P & I of $67.74M or -$1.26M negative
0.3216 x 314.73 = $101.19M > than 3rd year P & I of $95;37M or $5.82M positive
0.3216 x 425.95 = $136.99M > than 4th year P & I of $126.16M or $10.83M positive
0.3216 x 472.72 = $152.03M > than 10th year P & I of $126.16M or $25.86M positive
0.3216 x 540.53 = $173.83M positive for 20th year
0.3216 x 627.30 = $201.73M positive for 30th year
After the eleventh year its assumed that there will be no P & 1 payments. Its interesting to note that annual income will increase starting the 11th year through the 30th year from approximately $26M to $202M and is available to the Power Plant owners for capital improvements or applied to free cash flow per their interest in PP
Sales vs Power production costs (including coal) Coal costs are taken from Boyd as per their NI-43-101 at $17.70 per tonne annually over the 30 years
2016 – 0.2958x101.84=$30.12M > than 1st year coal at ($15.49M) leaving ($14.63M) for production
2017 – 0.2958x206.72=$61.15M > than 2nd year coal at ($30.98M) leaving ($30.17M) for production
2018 – 0.2958x314.75=$93.18M > than 3rd year coal at ($46.46M) leaving ($46.64M) for production
2019 – 0.2958x425.95=$126.00M > than 4th year coal at ($61.95M) leaving ($64.35M) for production
2026 – 0.2958x472.72=$138.83M > than 11th year coal at($61.95M) leaving ($77.88M) for production
2036 – 0.2958x540.53=$159.89M > than 20th year coal at($61.95M) leaving ($97.94M) for production
3046 – 0.2958x627.30=$185.56M > than 30th year coal at($61.95M) leaving ($123.61M) for production
Relative to production costs annual increases in coal prices and labor are very likely over the power plant's life, but the left over for production seems adequate.
Free Cash Flow (fcf) based on a 20% carried interest by Prophecy Coal (before including fcf at the completion of P & I payments
0.3826 x 101.64 x 0.20 = $7.78M 1st year
0.3826 x 206.72 x 0.20 = $15.81M 2nd year
0.3826 x 314.74 x 0.20 = $24.08M 3rd year
0.3826 x 425.95 x 0.20 = $32.59M 4th year
0.3826 x 472.72 x 0.20 = 36.17M 11th year
0.3826 x 540.55 x 0.20 = 41.36M 20th year
0.3826 x 627.30 x 0.20 = 48.00M 30th year
Free Cash flows (fcf) based on a 20% carried interest by Prophecy Coal and including fcf after P & I payments end. It is assumed that 20% is placed in a fund for improvements and the remainder is applied per the percentage interest of the owners. For PCY, 0.20(126.16 - 126.16 x 0.20) = $20.18M
0.3826 x 101.64 x 0.20 = $7.78M 1st year
0.3826 x 206.72x 0.20 = $15.81M 2nd year
0.3826 x 314.74 x 0.20 = $24.08M 3rd year
0.3826 x 425.95x 0.20 = $32.59M 4th year
(0.3826 x 472.72 x 0.20) + 20.18 = $56.36M 11th year
(0.3826 x 540.55 x 0.20) + 20.18 = $61.55M 20th year
(0.3826 x 627.30 x 0.20) + 20.18 = $68.19M 30th year
note: the final 20 years have free cash flows in access of $1.23 Billion based on the 600 MW PP, which is 1/6th of the future potential of the future power plants.
Below is a preliminary stab on the 600 MW PP, which is 1/6th of Prophecy's Coal's potential future power production. It doesn't consider Prophecy Coal's other assets such as its Mongolian Coal Mines and its Canadian interests such as Wellgreen.
Assumptions
-The Chandgana-tal Power Plant gets the go ahead and Prophecy Coal obtains a 20% carried interest.
-The initial PPA is $77.50 MW/h. It is averaged from Steag's Feasibility Study dated 12/17/2012 at $60 MW/h and the Mongolia Wind Farm tariff of $95.00 MW/h, then the initial $77.50 PPA is increased by 1.5% each year after the first year of operation. This assumption is less than Steag's 2% semi annual estimate..
-The Power Plant goes on line producing 150 MW during 2016, then adds 150MW to its annual capacity for each year until it acheives 600 MW in 2019.
-Operating Costs are from Steag's Feasibility Study dated 12/17/2012 which stated “The plant’s power production cost is US $0.023/kWh (including coal). Capital recovery, including loan principal and interest payments, is estimated to be US $0.025/kWh.”
Steag is a German firm specializing in the planning, financing, construction and operation of highly efficient, thermal power plants for fossil fuels. Steag starting PPA of $60 MW/h had 2% semi annual increases. I believe the 2% semi annual increases were very high. For instance a $60MW PPA at year 30 (59 2% increases) would be $193 MW/h. The assumed 1.5% annual increases to the starting PPA of $77.50 MW/h gives a PPA of $119.35 after 30 years.
- Financing is partly in accordance with the proposal from Sheet 25 of the September 2012 Corporate Presentation. The first two year CAPEX totaling $490 million is divided into 2 loans of $245 million for 2016 and 2017 respectively with annual interest at 5.5%. For 2018 and 2019 the CAPEX of $350 million is also divided into two separate loans of $175 million with annual interest at 5.5%.
The Loans as envisioned
The 2016 Loan of $245 Million at 5.5% over a 10 years term requires annual P&I of $32.50M
The 2017 Loan of $245 million at 5.5% over a 9 year term requires annual P&I of $35.24M
The 2018 Loan of $175 million at 5.5% over a 8 year term requires annual P&I of $27.63M
The 2019 Loan of $175 million at 5.5% over a 7 year term requires annual P&I of $30.79M
Loan P & I sums: 1st year $32.5M, 2nd year $67.74M, 3rd year $95.37M and 4th to 10th year $126.16M
The 5.5% interest rate selected is assumed.
The PPA is set at $77.50 per MW/h with no increase during 2016, then annual increases of 1.5% for each year thereafter. For 2017 the PPA is $78.66 per MW/h. For 2018 the PPA is $79.84 per MW/h. For 2019 the PPA is $81.04, For 2025 the PPA is $88.61 per MW/h. For 2026 the first year of no loan payments. the PPA is $89.94 per MW/h, for 2036 (yr 20) is $102.84 per MW/h and for 2046 (yr 30) it is $119.35 per MW/h
Annual Sales for selected years
2016 sales will be $77.50 x 150 x 24 x 365, or $101.84 M
2017 sales will be $78.66 x 300 x 24 x 365, or $206.72 M
2018 sales will be $79.84 x 450 x 24 x 365, or $314.73 M
2019 sales will be $81.04 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $425.95M
2026 sales will be $89.94 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $472.72M (no P & I during 2026)
2036 sales will be $102.84 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $540.53M
2046 sales will be $119.35 x 600 x 24 x 365, or $627.30M
Cost and non cost percentages per Stieg based on the assumed PPA
(0.023/0.0775)100 = 29.58%, (Plant power production costs is US $0.023/kWh (including coal)
(0.025/0.0775)100 = 32.16%, (Capital recovery costs, including loan principal and interest payments)
100 - (29.58 + 32.16) = 38.26% non cost
Selected yearly Sales vs P & I and capital recovery
0.3216 x 101.84 = $32.75M > than 1st year P & I of $32.50M, or $0.25M positive
0.3216 x 206.72 = $66.48M < than 2nd year P & I of $67.74M or -$1.26M negative
0.3216 x 314.73 = $101.19M > than 3rd year P & I of $95;37M or $5.82M positive
0.3216 x 425.95 = $136.99M > than 4th year P & I of $126.16M or $10.83M positive
0.3216 x 472.72 = $152.03M > than 10th year P & I of $126.16M or $25.86M positive
0.3216 x 540.53 = $173.83M positive for 20th year
0.3216 x 627.30 = $201.73M positive for 30th year
After the eleventh year its assumed that there will be no P & 1 payments. Its interesting to note that annual income will increase starting the 11th year through the 30th year from approximately $26M to $202M and is available to the Power Plant owners for capital improvements or applied to free cash flow per their interest in PP
Sales vs Power production costs (including coal) Coal costs are taken from Boyd as per their NI-43-101 at $17.70 per tonne annually over the 30 years
2016 – 0.2958x101.84=$30.12M > than 1st year coal at ($15.49M) leaving ($14.63M) for production
2017 – 0.2958x206.72=$61.15M > than 2nd year coal at ($30.98M) leaving ($30.17M) for production
2018 – 0.2958x314.75=$93.18M > than 3rd year coal at ($46.46M) leaving ($46.64M) for production
2019 – 0.2958x425.95=$126.00M > than 4th year coal at ($61.95M) leaving ($64.35M) for production
2026 – 0.2958x472.72=$138.83M > than 11th year coal at($61.95M) leaving ($77.88M) for production
2036 – 0.2958x540.53=$159.89M > than 20th year coal at($61.95M) leaving ($97.94M) for production
3046 – 0.2958x627.30=$185.56M > than 30th year coal at($61.95M) leaving ($123.61M) for production
Relative to production costs annual increases in coal prices and labor are very likely over the power plant's life, but the left over for production seems adequate.
Free Cash Flow (fcf) based on a 20% carried interest by Prophecy Coal (before including fcf at the completion of P & I payments
0.3826 x 101.64 x 0.20 = $7.78M 1st year
0.3826 x 206.72 x 0.20 = $15.81M 2nd year
0.3826 x 314.74 x 0.20 = $24.08M 3rd year
0.3826 x 425.95 x 0.20 = $32.59M 4th year
0.3826 x 472.72 x 0.20 = 36.17M 11th year
0.3826 x 540.55 x 0.20 = 41.36M 20th year
0.3826 x 627.30 x 0.20 = 48.00M 30th year
Free Cash flows (fcf) based on a 20% carried interest by Prophecy Coal and including fcf after P & I payments end. It is assumed that 20% is placed in a fund for improvements and the remainder is applied per the percentage interest of the owners. For PCY, 0.20(126.16 - 126.16 x 0.20) = $20.18M
0.3826 x 101.64 x 0.20 = $7.78M 1st year
0.3826 x 206.72x 0.20 = $15.81M 2nd year
0.3826 x 314.74 x 0.20 = $24.08M 3rd year
0.3826 x 425.95x 0.20 = $32.59M 4th year
(0.3826 x 472.72 x 0.20) + 20.18 = $56.36M 11th year
(0.3826 x 540.55 x 0.20) + 20.18 = $61.55M 20th year
(0.3826 x 627.30 x 0.20) + 20.18 = $68.19M 30th year
note: the final 20 years have free cash flows in access of $1.23 Billion based on the 600 MW PP, which is 1/6th of the future potential of the future power plants.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.041.810 von sebaldo am 20.01.13 09:59:07Da ich ein gutes Gefühl habe...
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=PCY.C&num1=3…
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=PCY.C&num1=3…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.041.774 von likeshares am 20.01.13 09:31:00Hi likeshares,
ja, das kognitive Glück. Ganz ehrlich, ich bewundere jeden, der es hier im Thread findet.
Du hast (mal wieder) die Historie perfekt aufgearbeitet. Da bewundere ich dich. Mein Interesse an der Vergangenheit von PCY hält sich allerdings momentan in Grenzen. Ich warte auch nicht auf einen Jahresendbrief von JL. Ich warte auf die positive news über PPA und EPC.
Da ich ein gutes Gefühl habe (ich weiß, Gefühle können täuschen), fällt mir das Warten in den nächsten 2 - 3 Wochen leicht.
ja, das kognitive Glück. Ganz ehrlich, ich bewundere jeden, der es hier im Thread findet.
Du hast (mal wieder) die Historie perfekt aufgearbeitet. Da bewundere ich dich. Mein Interesse an der Vergangenheit von PCY hält sich allerdings momentan in Grenzen. Ich warte auch nicht auf einen Jahresendbrief von JL. Ich warte auf die positive news über PPA und EPC.
Da ich ein gutes Gefühl habe (ich weiß, Gefühle können täuschen), fällt mir das Warten in den nächsten 2 - 3 Wochen leicht.
Zitat von sebaldo: An kalten Wochenenden ist auch ein Spaziergang an der frischen Luft nicht schlecht.
Der etwas flexiblere Typ legt sich nicht nur auf den Spaziergang fest, sondern verbindet die Elemente des physischen und kognitiven Glückes, indem er zuerst den Spaziergang genießt, um sich danach an wichtigen postings im PCY thread zu erfreuen?
Das waren die Fragen, die letztes Jahr um die selbe Zeit aktuell waren, danke an Fritz und seinen Fragenthread (Zitat):
Bis jetzt sehen die Fragen so aus.
Ulan Ovoo
• As the road from UO to Sukhbaator gets asphalted by Prophecy, who will carry the costs and when will the works get finalized?
• How high are the operational costs at UO now on the one hand for the production and on the other hand for the transportation oft he coal to Sukhbaator?
• How high ist the percentage of 4500kcal/kg and of 5100kcal/kg coal at UO?
• Did Prophecy Coal abandon the Sovgavan plans and what is the core of the problems there?
• Will the road to Sukhbataar still be of any importance after the opening of the Zeltura border?
• You said that the coalprices across the Zelturaborder are higher than in Sovgavan. Do you expect them to remain higher after the opening of the border?
• Is Prophecy still interested to acquire additional land around UO and Chandgana?
What's the current status there?
Chandgana
• Who will build the power lines that connect Chandgana with the Mongolian grid and will PC have to pay a rent to use the Mongolian grid?
• Is there already a company working on concrete plans for the power plant?
General questions about Prophecy Coal
• Are there more exact plans from the management when we will get a listing at the MSE?
• Are there any conciderations of the management to go on exploring Titan and Okeover?
• What a topic, Cornerstone Investor. I know you want be able to tell me much about it, but could you please give some hints if a partnership with Vale, with a Russian Company, or with both is still an issue?
• Once there was rumor about a closer connection with the Batista family. Are you still in contact with others than Harald?
• A couple months ago John Lee and helmut Pollinger held some quite interesting video-interviews mainly for German speaking investors.
Why did they stop?
Auf SEDAR stehen die Antworten in der < Mar 30 2012 MD&A - English > und werden mit der Form 52-109F2 "als nach bestem Wissen beantwortet" dargestellt! Leider lassen sich SEDAR Inhalte nicht verlinken? Deshalb nur ein kleiner Auszug aus der Form 52-109F2:
2. No misrepresentations: Based on my knowledge, having exercised reasonable diligence, the interim filings do not contain any untrue...
http://sedar.com/DisplayProfile.do?lang=EN&issuerType=03&iss…
Nov 14 2012 MD&A - English
Nov 14 2012 52-109F2 - Certification of interim filings - CEO (E)
Im November hatte sich mit den < Nov 14 2012 MD&A - English > dann leider einiges anders entwickelt.
Inzwischen warten wir immer noch auf einen Jahresendbrief des John Lee. Es dürfte jeder nachvollziehen können, warum es so lange dauert?
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.041.164 von berni40 am 19.01.13 18:29:24An kalten Wochenenden ist auch ein Spaziergang an der frischen Luft nicht schlecht.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.041.142 von sebaldo am 19.01.13 18:17:47
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.041.068 von likeshares am 19.01.13 17:32:12Moin,
auch am kalten Wochenende braucht man Hintergrundwissen und da ist eine gute Wochenend - Lektüre von Dir schon wieder dankenswert.
Gruß Berni
auch am kalten Wochenende braucht man Hintergrundwissen und da ist eine gute Wochenend - Lektüre von Dir schon wieder dankenswert.
Gruß Berni
Ich lese hier etwas von einem Jahr Verspätung beim KKW. Ist der Baubeginn etwa auf Q2 2014 verschoben worden?
Warum wartet ihr nicht einfach mal die nächsten 2 - 3 Wochen ab, anstatt hier permanent den letzten Stein noch einmal umzuwälzen.
Kommen PPA und EPC, werden alle jubeln, wie toll der JL das hingekriegt hat. Kommen sie nicht, kann man immer noch sagen, dass man ihm nie vertraut hat.
Warum wartet ihr nicht einfach mal die nächsten 2 - 3 Wochen ab, anstatt hier permanent den letzten Stein noch einmal umzuwälzen.
Kommen PPA und EPC, werden alle jubeln, wie toll der JL das hingekriegt hat. Kommen sie nicht, kann man immer noch sagen, dass man ihm nie vertraut hat.
Super 
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