Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 340)
eröffnet am 23.06.11 21:04:25 von
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ISIN: CA00829Q1019 · WKN: A0MZJC · Symbol: AOI
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bin aufgestgen bei 6.15 € und jetzt bin traurig, so geht wenn mann hat keine ahnung wie ich...
Da HRN eine 51%-Beteiligung von AOI ist, darf man hier schon auch Horn diskutieren, finde ich ... ;o)
Der SP von HRN kann AOI ja nicht egal sein, wenn sie das Ding irgendwann verkaufen wollen...
Also etwas off topic
:
Die Warrants tragen an sich ein höheres Risiko; bieten aber im Erfolgsfall einen entsprechend besseren Hebel.
Der Erfolgsfall ist ja nun sehr wahrscheinlich, nachdem K. Hill von 75% Wahrscheinlichkeit auf commercial success für Shabeel-1 und "about 100 mmbbls recoverable" gesprochen hat (d.h. in meinen Augen: die sind sich vollkommen sicher über den Erfolg, müssen aber einen Floatest abwarten, bevor sie es offiziell als "commercial" deklarieren können).
Der Spread bei den Warrants ist enorm. Aus dem Ask kaufen tut immer weh. Derzeit bekommt man die Warrants für CAD 0,65 - das heißt man erwirbt damit die HRN-Shares für CAD 2,15. Man erhält jedoch derzeit etwa doppelt soviel Warrants, wie wenn man die HRN direkt kauft.
Jetzt ist halt die Frage, was man glaubt wohin sich der Sharepreis von HRN entwickelt. Insbesondere, was mit SN-1 noch passiert.
Meine persönliche Einschätzung: Ich finde das Verhältnis derzeit von 2 Warrants zu 1 HRN-Share nicht wirklich attraktiv. Ein Verhältnis näher an 1:3 wäre schon interessanter.
Denn noch ist es kein Selbstläufer. Wenn SN-1 kein Erfolg hat, dann könnte sein, dass die Warrants gtriggert werden, mit dem Flow-Ergebnis von S1, der Shareprice aber dennoch nicht durch die Decke geht - das wäre der wirklich unglückliche Case, wenn man dann zu ungünstigen Konditionen Kaufen müsste.
Aber angesichts der guten Ausgangslage, den KH-Anmerkungen, den $10 per bbls Wert etc. sind die Warrants inzwischen schon eine Versuchung wert...
Der SP von HRN kann AOI ja nicht egal sein, wenn sie das Ding irgendwann verkaufen wollen...
Also etwas off topic
:Die Warrants tragen an sich ein höheres Risiko; bieten aber im Erfolgsfall einen entsprechend besseren Hebel.
Der Erfolgsfall ist ja nun sehr wahrscheinlich, nachdem K. Hill von 75% Wahrscheinlichkeit auf commercial success für Shabeel-1 und "about 100 mmbbls recoverable" gesprochen hat (d.h. in meinen Augen: die sind sich vollkommen sicher über den Erfolg, müssen aber einen Floatest abwarten, bevor sie es offiziell als "commercial" deklarieren können).
Der Spread bei den Warrants ist enorm. Aus dem Ask kaufen tut immer weh. Derzeit bekommt man die Warrants für CAD 0,65 - das heißt man erwirbt damit die HRN-Shares für CAD 2,15. Man erhält jedoch derzeit etwa doppelt soviel Warrants, wie wenn man die HRN direkt kauft.
Jetzt ist halt die Frage, was man glaubt wohin sich der Sharepreis von HRN entwickelt. Insbesondere, was mit SN-1 noch passiert.
Meine persönliche Einschätzung: Ich finde das Verhältnis derzeit von 2 Warrants zu 1 HRN-Share nicht wirklich attraktiv. Ein Verhältnis näher an 1:3 wäre schon interessanter.
Denn noch ist es kein Selbstläufer. Wenn SN-1 kein Erfolg hat, dann könnte sein, dass die Warrants gtriggert werden, mit dem Flow-Ergebnis von S1, der Shareprice aber dennoch nicht durch die Decke geht - das wäre der wirklich unglückliche Case, wenn man dann zu ungünstigen Konditionen Kaufen müsste.
Aber angesichts der guten Ausgangslage, den KH-Anmerkungen, den $10 per bbls Wert etc. sind die Warrants inzwischen schon eine Versuchung wert...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.214.714 von gimo211 am 26.05.12 18:37:37hallo gimo, da du ja nicht mehr im HRN board schreibst würde ich dich gerne in unserem board zu HRN.WT
befragen. wie siehst du das chancen- risiko verhälnis vom geringeren kapitaleinsatz zum möglichen ertrag ? danke für deine bemühungen und liebe gruesse
befragen. wie siehst du das chancen- risiko verhälnis vom geringeren kapitaleinsatz zum möglichen ertrag ? danke für deine bemühungen und liebe gruesse
Posting von superoilhunter im Stockhouse-Board mit Bezug auf die Präsentation von K. Hill in Schweden (24.05.12) - siehe auch Link gepostet von wantedman.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=AO…
Basically open up the presentation slide on AOIs website and follow along with K.HILL vocal presentation. Some Key points I came away with...
"This is so huge, we will be getting into production" " This is a once in a lifetime opp with basins like this"
-4 different rift systems independent of one another.
-From Sept 4 rigs full time drilling, expect lots of news flow
-Aggressive drill program, will need to raise money by year end after we drill a few more wells.
-Lucas Lundin likes to raise capital @ 30/share a lot more than 8/share. Wants minimum dilution for shareholders.
-Tullow has a worldwide sucess rate of 88% in africa 90%+ success rate! unbelievable!
-8 identical prospects as Ngambia, from 20% before drill now 75% chance of success on these if Ngambia is proven. ( which it just was)
-Predrill est. 17meters of net pay = 50 million barrels Found was 100 meters net pay in upper well(didn't include fridays news release of over 100 meters of oil/gas shows) Wildly exceeding expectations. 6x as much found SO FAR as predrill estimate for the entire well. So far over 250 million barrels just on the upper section find..( not counting fridays news of more new finds) Commercial is 250million barrels which he said is already there just in upper find.
-Kamba is one of the biggest prospects and they want to drill it asap.
-Tullow was very excited and wants to drill S.OMO, tullow thinks thats the sweet spot. if they find oil, it opens up a entire area.
-NGAMBIA Best well Tullow ever drilled.. best AOI ever seen.
-Only 2/3s done on Ngambia well.. primary target to come!
-They will farm out block 9 for around 25 million for 50% which will cover cost of the well... 15% chance of success there. Tullow was not interested in block 9. Paipai is key to this one, if paipai hits, this is a sure thing.. if not, they won't even drill it.
-AOIs feels that there is so much oil they will find that they will become producers...and be around for a long time.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=AO…
Basically open up the presentation slide on AOIs website and follow along with K.HILL vocal presentation. Some Key points I came away with...
"This is so huge, we will be getting into production" " This is a once in a lifetime opp with basins like this"
-4 different rift systems independent of one another.
-From Sept 4 rigs full time drilling, expect lots of news flow
-Aggressive drill program, will need to raise money by year end after we drill a few more wells.
-Lucas Lundin likes to raise capital @ 30/share a lot more than 8/share. Wants minimum dilution for shareholders.
-Tullow has a worldwide sucess rate of 88% in africa 90%+ success rate! unbelievable!
-8 identical prospects as Ngambia, from 20% before drill now 75% chance of success on these if Ngambia is proven. ( which it just was)
-Predrill est. 17meters of net pay = 50 million barrels Found was 100 meters net pay in upper well(didn't include fridays news release of over 100 meters of oil/gas shows) Wildly exceeding expectations. 6x as much found SO FAR as predrill estimate for the entire well. So far over 250 million barrels just on the upper section find..( not counting fridays news of more new finds) Commercial is 250million barrels which he said is already there just in upper find.
-Kamba is one of the biggest prospects and they want to drill it asap.
-Tullow was very excited and wants to drill S.OMO, tullow thinks thats the sweet spot. if they find oil, it opens up a entire area.
-NGAMBIA Best well Tullow ever drilled.. best AOI ever seen.
-Only 2/3s done on Ngambia well.. primary target to come!
-They will farm out block 9 for around 25 million for 50% which will cover cost of the well... 15% chance of success there. Tullow was not interested in block 9. Paipai is key to this one, if paipai hits, this is a sure thing.. if not, they won't even drill it.
-AOIs feels that there is so much oil they will find that they will become producers...and be around for a long time.
Hier ein Audio-Link von Keith Hills Präsentation in Schweden
Sehr gut verständlich:
http://www.speedyshare.com/fAfEt/20120524-190235.m4a
Sehr gut verständlich:
http://www.speedyshare.com/fAfEt/20120524-190235.m4a
Trading Spotlight
Zitat von gabbo62: Tullow cheers further Kenya hit
Tullow Oil has had more joy at a Kenyan play after a wildcat threw up further oil and gas shows.
Hallo,
Nur mal etwas allgemeines: Als Africa Oil Corporation/verschiedenen Unternehmen in der Region-Interessierte könnte es sich auch lohnen mal CAMAC Energy Incorporation anzuschauen.
Die sind aktuell ein "Mini Förderer", haben einen Haufen Afrika/Asien Assets, mit so einigem an "Prospective Resourcen" und haben gerade zulezt wieder "fett" in Kenia zugeschlagen:
www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120515006561/en
www.camacenergy.com/documents/CAMAC_ENERGY_IPAA_OGIS_2012.pd…
Habe keine eingehendere Recherche betrieben, aber könnte m.A.n. schon lohnenswert sein. Allerdings auch, analog zu AOI, auf sehr "exotische" Regionen fokussiert.
Gruß
P.
Zum Vergleich hat Tullow in 2011 insgesamt ca. 374 mmboe Reserven exploriert.
http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=13
(Reserven um 354 mmboe ausgeweitet, ca. 20 mmboe gefoerdert)
http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=13
(Reserven um 354 mmboe ausgeweitet, ca. 20 mmboe gefoerdert)
Interessanter Fund, da ich das gleiche Thema gestern Mittag auf Stockhouse.com veröffentlicht hatte...
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&…
... Soll uns jedoch recht sein, wenn die fundamentalen Fakten weltweit bekannt sind...
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&…
... Soll uns jedoch recht sein, wenn die fundamentalen Fakten weltweit bekannt sind...
Von User Warnado1 aus dem iii-Board
Quelle: http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AOIFF&displ…
Out of interest I conducted a volumetric estimate exercise based on some calculations made earlier in May, around the 9th/10th, by a Bay Street brokerage company.
The firm's analyst commented "pre-drill P50 recoverable resource estimate of 45 million barrels was predicated on some 17 m of net oil pay thus, all else being equal, a simple volumetric estimate would suggest that Ngamia could contain over 250 million barrels of recoverable resources within the existing horizons alone, let alone any potential prospectivity within the deeper, primary objective"
https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnotev…
In simple terms AOI's internal estimated resources calculation concluded that for every 17mtrs of net pay oil the P50 recoverable resource estimate would stand at of 45 million barrels of oil. See page 9 of the January/March presentation below -
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/CorporatePresentation_Jan…
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/UBS-March-2012.pdf
You will also notice on pages 9 of both presentations they give P10 recoverable resource estimates which stand at 180 million barrels of oil.
Before we go any further lets have a quick lesson sucking eggs involving 'P' numbers -
P90 = Proven, reasonable certainty of being recoverable (90% confidence).
P50 = Probable, expected to be closest to the true reserves (50% confidence).
P10 = Possible, less likely chance of being recovered than probable reserves (10% confidence).
The initial 45 million barrels of oil was based on P50 estimates for 17mtrs of net pay.
If we take that 17mtrs AOI's internal estimated resources increase to 180 million barrels of oil.
But we now know we have more than 17mtrs of net pay and although the latest news release does not disclose net pay numbers the previous news release does. It declares that we have a "total net oil pay encountered so far has increased to in excess of 100 metres across multiple reservoir zones"
TOTAL NET PAY IN EXCESS OF 100MTRS!
Lets work on this, the Bay Street analyst quoted company internal estimated resources based on definitive parameters. We now know these have increased therefore the 17mtrs of net oil pay now becomes 100mtrs of net oil pay, AT LEAST.
100 / 17 = 5.88
P50 previously 45 million barrels of oil now becomes 264.6 million barrels of oil (45 * 5.88)
P90 previously 180 million barrels of oil now becomes 1,058.4 million barrels of oil (180 * 5.88)
Additional to this we have the most most recent news release which declares "oil and gas shows (NOT NET PAY, SHOWS ONLY) over a gross interval of 140 metres from a depth of 1,800 metres to 1,940 metres". In all probability there will be more again due to drilling in the primary target and another 700mtrs to drill.
We already have IN EXCESS of 100mtrs which can only get bigger and bigger. I did my own little exercise on that amount when the presentation came out and the SHOWS come to much more than 100mtrs. I got them to approx 255mtrs over 29 separate intervals. Obviously I do not expect them all to produce but the evidence is there of their presence.
http://www.iii.co.uk/reg/profile/public/?threshold=0&pageno=…
The is very much to look forward to and all my shares will be staying securely within my firm grip for the foreseeable future without any doubt.
Quelle: http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AOIFF&displ…
Out of interest I conducted a volumetric estimate exercise based on some calculations made earlier in May, around the 9th/10th, by a Bay Street brokerage company.
The firm's analyst commented "pre-drill P50 recoverable resource estimate of 45 million barrels was predicated on some 17 m of net oil pay thus, all else being equal, a simple volumetric estimate would suggest that Ngamia could contain over 250 million barrels of recoverable resources within the existing horizons alone, let alone any potential prospectivity within the deeper, primary objective"
https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnotev…
In simple terms AOI's internal estimated resources calculation concluded that for every 17mtrs of net pay oil the P50 recoverable resource estimate would stand at of 45 million barrels of oil. See page 9 of the January/March presentation below -
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/CorporatePresentation_Jan…
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/UBS-March-2012.pdf
You will also notice on pages 9 of both presentations they give P10 recoverable resource estimates which stand at 180 million barrels of oil.
Before we go any further lets have a quick lesson sucking eggs involving 'P' numbers -
P90 = Proven, reasonable certainty of being recoverable (90% confidence).
P50 = Probable, expected to be closest to the true reserves (50% confidence).
P10 = Possible, less likely chance of being recovered than probable reserves (10% confidence).
The initial 45 million barrels of oil was based on P50 estimates for 17mtrs of net pay.
If we take that 17mtrs AOI's internal estimated resources increase to 180 million barrels of oil.
But we now know we have more than 17mtrs of net pay and although the latest news release does not disclose net pay numbers the previous news release does. It declares that we have a "total net oil pay encountered so far has increased to in excess of 100 metres across multiple reservoir zones"
TOTAL NET PAY IN EXCESS OF 100MTRS!
Lets work on this, the Bay Street analyst quoted company internal estimated resources based on definitive parameters. We now know these have increased therefore the 17mtrs of net oil pay now becomes 100mtrs of net oil pay, AT LEAST.
100 / 17 = 5.88
P50 previously 45 million barrels of oil now becomes 264.6 million barrels of oil (45 * 5.88)
P90 previously 180 million barrels of oil now becomes 1,058.4 million barrels of oil (180 * 5.88)
Additional to this we have the most most recent news release which declares "oil and gas shows (NOT NET PAY, SHOWS ONLY) over a gross interval of 140 metres from a depth of 1,800 metres to 1,940 metres". In all probability there will be more again due to drilling in the primary target and another 700mtrs to drill.
We already have IN EXCESS of 100mtrs which can only get bigger and bigger. I did my own little exercise on that amount when the presentation came out and the SHOWS come to much more than 100mtrs. I got them to approx 255mtrs over 29 separate intervals. Obviously I do not expect them all to produce but the evidence is there of their presence.
http://www.iii.co.uk/reg/profile/public/?threshold=0&pageno=…
The is very much to look forward to and all my shares will be staying securely within my firm grip for the foreseeable future without any doubt.
...ja, allen AOIlern ein schönes sonniges und vor allem entspanntes Pfingsten!!
Wir aben allen Grund, ein paar relaxte Stunden zu genießen!
Nicht vergessen, am Montag wird zwar in USA nicht gehandelt; aber in Kanada...
(könnte also eine nette Vorgabe für Frankfurt am Dienstag geben... )
Wir aben allen Grund, ein paar relaxte Stunden zu genießen!
Nicht vergessen, am Montag wird zwar in USA nicht gehandelt; aber in Kanada...
(könnte also eine nette Vorgabe für Frankfurt am Dienstag geben...
) 
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