Noobtraders - or "rolleg´s edge" (Seite 1931)
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Atlantic Ltd releases Quarterly Activities Report
http://atlanticltd.com.au/upload/documents/InvestorRelations…
So wie es aussieht, läuft es im Moment nach Plan.
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Quote for Niogold Mining Corp. (NOX:CA)
$ 0,37 RT 0,00 (0.00%) Volume: 42,54 k 11:38 EDT 13.04.2012
Von einem User zu Focus Metals aus dem Stockhouse:
Updated Economic Advantage for FMS
TeTsuo361
4/12/2012 6:14:24 AM | | 190 reads | Post #30930370
I've had a bit of a moan regarding FMS working to published timelines and Grafiod ownership disclosure recently. I think it is good to talk about negatives as much of positives.
But back to FMS positives. I updated by economic comparison of FMS vs NCG, based on the improved flake size distribution from the SGS findings. The NR improved the potential revenue FMS can achieve per tonne. Apologies in advance if the format posts poorly.
NGC information is from the NGC website
*I have given NGC Jumbo flake a 27% price premium over published NGC price of $2,750.
20,000 tonnes * $2,849.85 = $56.9m per annum revenue
Next, if we take a look at NGC's nearest competitor, Focus Metals (FMS) and how their revenue
compares:
FMS information is from the FMS website/SGS NR 10/04/12.
* $1,275 is a simple average of small flake and powder price.
20,000 tonnes * $2,335.23 = $46.7m per annum revenue
NGC certainly do have a good premium on revenue per tonne over the nearest competitor,
due to a higher large/jumbo flake distribution (+22%).
But, let us then consider production costs.
There are no public companies producing currently in North America and no published
BFS to refer to either from these mining development companies.
FMS has though had feasibility studies completed in the past and have published an expected
production cost of $250/t, based on a 15.67% ore grade on their website. If we assume this information
is optimistic, let us say their cost of production will be $400/t (I'm taking a more prudent approach to FMS).
When you then compare the ore grades 15.67% (FMS) and 1.81% (NGC) it is clear NGC have to
mine and process considerably more ore to produce a tonne of Graphite.
For a tonne of graphite NGC must mine/process 55.24 tonnes of ore. In comparison FMS will need to
mine and process 6.38 tonnes of ore. NGC must therefore mine and process 8.65 times more ore per tonne of finished product, due to the lower ore grade going into the plant.
Let us then assume that mining and processing 8.65 times more ore does not fully equate to 8.65 times
the cost. I think it is fair though to assume at least 5 times the cost, as we have the basic mining cost,
grinding and milling, flotation and disposal of waste ore/tailings. To process the ore the plant will
need to be considerably larger, with more personnel/higher manpower costs and higher energy costs.
The overburden at Blisset Creek (NGC) is also greater, 10m vs Lac Knife (FMS) at 6m, so it costs more to
get at the deposit in the first place for NGC.
NGC could therefore be looking at production costs in the region of $2,000 per tonne
8.65 times more mining and processing per tonne of finished product.
5 times the production cost of production (my estimate).
If we then use the FMS estimated production cost of $400 * 5 = $2,000/t for NGC.
So the comparative gross margins for NGC and FMS could stack up as follows on 20,000 tonnes production:
The stated capex figures are also interesting and should be challenged. FMS estimate $65m, NGC state $85m. Is it really possible to set up a plant for 31% greater cost for NGC, that has to process 765% more ore annually to achieve 20,000 tonnes of Graphite production? This looks unlikely to me, so either FMS is over estimating the capital requirements or NGC under estimating the same imo.
A larger capital requirement would then inevitably lead to higher interest payments on a greater debt burden and we must also consider an increased cost of maintenance associated with a larger plant. Costs below gross margin are therefore also likely to be greater for NGC.
We must also consider sensitivity to prices. A worsening situation in Europe, a Chinese economic slow down could all have a potential effect on price going forward. New technology may well mean demand continues to grow unabated, but there is a higher risk for the marginal producer with lower gross margin and operating costs.
When I considerer production costs for NGC at $2,000/t against an average revenue of $2,849/t, prices do
not need to reduce as much for NGC compared to FMS for issues of profitability to arise.
I do appreciate my figures are open to debate. If companies choose to upgrade Graphite to the 99.999% purity range, income will be considerably higher with increased gross margin to match, both companies could choose to upgrade, indeed I feel NGC must provide this type of production to have a robust economic model.
Additionally, my quoted FMS production cost per tonne of $400/t ($250/t stated by FMS, increased by me for
prudence) could be incorrect and $250 may be more appropriate, if so the $2,000/t stated for NGC is then
overstated.
Finally the factor I am using of x5 to estimate the NGC cost of production to process 8.65 times more ore may also be inaccurate.
In summary, when I stack all this up NGC does not look to be the best graphite prospect from an economic perspective both in gross margin and EBIT terms. FMS appears to have a considerable advantage, the reason being that old mining adage of "Grade is King". Whilst my numbers use supposition and must include inaccuracies due to lack of available data,
I do think this certainly should give investors something to think about regarding the quality of NGC as a long term investment when compared to its nearest competitor, FMS is must more robust economically imo. This is more of an issue once the initial Graphite bubble is over and the realities of economic production begin.
Regards, Mark.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=FM…
Updated Economic Advantage for FMS
TeTsuo361
4/12/2012 6:14:24 AM | | 190 reads | Post #30930370
I've had a bit of a moan regarding FMS working to published timelines and Grafiod ownership disclosure recently. I think it is good to talk about negatives as much of positives.
But back to FMS positives. I updated by economic comparison of FMS vs NCG, based on the improved flake size distribution from the SGS findings. The NR improved the potential revenue FMS can achieve per tonne. Apologies in advance if the format posts poorly.
NGC information is from the NGC website
*I have given NGC Jumbo flake a 27% price premium over published NGC price of $2,750.
20,000 tonnes * $2,849.85 = $56.9m per annum revenue
Next, if we take a look at NGC's nearest competitor, Focus Metals (FMS) and how their revenue
compares:
FMS information is from the FMS website/SGS NR 10/04/12.
* $1,275 is a simple average of small flake and powder price.
20,000 tonnes * $2,335.23 = $46.7m per annum revenue
NGC certainly do have a good premium on revenue per tonne over the nearest competitor,
due to a higher large/jumbo flake distribution (+22%).
But, let us then consider production costs.
There are no public companies producing currently in North America and no published
BFS to refer to either from these mining development companies.
FMS has though had feasibility studies completed in the past and have published an expected
production cost of $250/t, based on a 15.67% ore grade on their website. If we assume this information
is optimistic, let us say their cost of production will be $400/t (I'm taking a more prudent approach to FMS).
When you then compare the ore grades 15.67% (FMS) and 1.81% (NGC) it is clear NGC have to
mine and process considerably more ore to produce a tonne of Graphite.
For a tonne of graphite NGC must mine/process 55.24 tonnes of ore. In comparison FMS will need to
mine and process 6.38 tonnes of ore. NGC must therefore mine and process 8.65 times more ore per tonne of finished product, due to the lower ore grade going into the plant.
Let us then assume that mining and processing 8.65 times more ore does not fully equate to 8.65 times
the cost. I think it is fair though to assume at least 5 times the cost, as we have the basic mining cost,
grinding and milling, flotation and disposal of waste ore/tailings. To process the ore the plant will
need to be considerably larger, with more personnel/higher manpower costs and higher energy costs.
The overburden at Blisset Creek (NGC) is also greater, 10m vs Lac Knife (FMS) at 6m, so it costs more to
get at the deposit in the first place for NGC.
NGC could therefore be looking at production costs in the region of $2,000 per tonne
8.65 times more mining and processing per tonne of finished product.
5 times the production cost of production (my estimate).
If we then use the FMS estimated production cost of $400 * 5 = $2,000/t for NGC.
So the comparative gross margins for NGC and FMS could stack up as follows on 20,000 tonnes production:
The stated capex figures are also interesting and should be challenged. FMS estimate $65m, NGC state $85m. Is it really possible to set up a plant for 31% greater cost for NGC, that has to process 765% more ore annually to achieve 20,000 tonnes of Graphite production? This looks unlikely to me, so either FMS is over estimating the capital requirements or NGC under estimating the same imo.
A larger capital requirement would then inevitably lead to higher interest payments on a greater debt burden and we must also consider an increased cost of maintenance associated with a larger plant. Costs below gross margin are therefore also likely to be greater for NGC.
We must also consider sensitivity to prices. A worsening situation in Europe, a Chinese economic slow down could all have a potential effect on price going forward. New technology may well mean demand continues to grow unabated, but there is a higher risk for the marginal producer with lower gross margin and operating costs.
When I considerer production costs for NGC at $2,000/t against an average revenue of $2,849/t, prices do
not need to reduce as much for NGC compared to FMS for issues of profitability to arise.
I do appreciate my figures are open to debate. If companies choose to upgrade Graphite to the 99.999% purity range, income will be considerably higher with increased gross margin to match, both companies could choose to upgrade, indeed I feel NGC must provide this type of production to have a robust economic model.
Additionally, my quoted FMS production cost per tonne of $400/t ($250/t stated by FMS, increased by me for
prudence) could be incorrect and $250 may be more appropriate, if so the $2,000/t stated for NGC is then
overstated.
Finally the factor I am using of x5 to estimate the NGC cost of production to process 8.65 times more ore may also be inaccurate.
In summary, when I stack all this up NGC does not look to be the best graphite prospect from an economic perspective both in gross margin and EBIT terms. FMS appears to have a considerable advantage, the reason being that old mining adage of "Grade is King". Whilst my numbers use supposition and must include inaccuracies due to lack of available data,
I do think this certainly should give investors something to think about regarding the quality of NGC as a long term investment when compared to its nearest competitor, FMS is must more robust economically imo. This is more of an issue once the initial Graphite bubble is over and the realities of economic production begin.
Regards, Mark.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=FM…
Goldcorp Inc. - Kaufen mit Kursziel 74 CAD
Die Analysten von GMP Securities veröffentlichten am 2. April eine neue Kaufempfehlung für den kanadischen Goldproduzenten Goldcorp. Inc.
Goldcorp hielt kürzlich seinen 2012er Investoren-Tag in Toronto ab. Für 2012 wird ein "langweiliges" Jahr erwartet, Pueblo Viejo soll 85.000 oz Gold liefern. Insgesamt erwartet man 2012 eine Produktion von 2,594 Mio. oz Gold, ansteigend auf 3,837 Mio. oz im Jahre 2014.
GMP zeigt sich begeistert von den möglicherweise hohen Ressourcenersetzungen, die das abgebaute Material übersteigen sollen. Man vermutet bei Cerro Negro, Camino Rojo, Noche Buena, Cerro Blanco und Penasquito Netto-Hinzufügungen von 5-7 Mio. oz Gold.
Produktionswachstum und eine sehr gesunde Bilanz sollten die Gewinne pro Aktie, den Cashflow und die Dividenden antreiben und damit auch den Aktienkurz.
Die Einschätzung lautet auf "Kaufen" und das Kursziel wird auf 74 CAD festgesetzt.
© Redaktion GoldSeiten.de / Rohstoff-Welt.de / MinenPortal.de
Die Analysten von GMP Securities veröffentlichten am 2. April eine neue Kaufempfehlung für den kanadischen Goldproduzenten Goldcorp. Inc.
Goldcorp hielt kürzlich seinen 2012er Investoren-Tag in Toronto ab. Für 2012 wird ein "langweiliges" Jahr erwartet, Pueblo Viejo soll 85.000 oz Gold liefern. Insgesamt erwartet man 2012 eine Produktion von 2,594 Mio. oz Gold, ansteigend auf 3,837 Mio. oz im Jahre 2014.
GMP zeigt sich begeistert von den möglicherweise hohen Ressourcenersetzungen, die das abgebaute Material übersteigen sollen. Man vermutet bei Cerro Negro, Camino Rojo, Noche Buena, Cerro Blanco und Penasquito Netto-Hinzufügungen von 5-7 Mio. oz Gold.
Produktionswachstum und eine sehr gesunde Bilanz sollten die Gewinne pro Aktie, den Cashflow und die Dividenden antreiben und damit auch den Aktienkurz.
Die Einschätzung lautet auf "Kaufen" und das Kursziel wird auf 74 CAD festgesetzt.
© Redaktion GoldSeiten.de / Rohstoff-Welt.de / MinenPortal.de
Trading Spotlight
Midas Letter Portfolio Advisors AG: James West on Tembo Gold, Avion Gold, Standard Graphite, Aroway Energy, Golden Predator on BNN's Market Call
http://watch.bnn.ca/monday#clip656084
http://watch.bnn.ca/monday#clip656084
Midas Letter Portfolio Advisors AG: James West of Midas Letter on Prophecy Platinum, Orbite Aluminae, and Nevsun Resources on BNN's Market Call
http://watch.bnn.ca/monday#clip656082
http://watch.bnn.ca/monday#clip656082
Graphite-Express
Newsletter - April 12/12
http://resourceclips.com/wp-content/newsletter/graphite/grap…
Newsletter - April 12/12
http://resourceclips.com/wp-content/newsletter/graphite/grap…
Lara Exploration Ltd.: New Claims and Positive Graphite Results From Caninde Project, Brazil
http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?story…
Quote for Lara Exploration Ltd. (LRA:CA)
$ 1,17 0,01 (+0.86%) Volume: 7,5 k 12:48 EDT 11.04.2012
http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?story…
Quote for Lara Exploration Ltd. (LRA:CA)
$ 1,17 0,01 (+0.86%) Volume: 7,5 k 12:48 EDT 11.04.2012
Managing Expectations: Why Gold Should Thrive
April 11, 2012 at 09:01:38 EST by Frank Holmes
http://www.vantagewire.ca/articles/managing-expectations-why…
April 11, 2012 at 09:01:38 EST by Frank Holmes
http://www.vantagewire.ca/articles/managing-expectations-why…
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