Sierra Wireless WKN: 920860 - Eine Zukunftsperle im M2M Markt?! (Seite 3)

[LugInvest]

Sierra Wirless fährt 3 Tage nach dem gemeldeten Ransomware-Angriff die IT-Systeme und die Produktion wieder hoch. Die Aktie legt vorbörslich deutlich zu und kann damit Teile der deutlichen Kursverluste vom 23. März wieder aufholen. Aktie bleibt mittelfristig ein interessanter Titel im Bereich IoT.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210326005090/en/

[LugInvest]

Der kanadische IoT-Spezialist Sierra Wireless ist Opfer eines Ransomware-Angriffs. Die Produktion musste unterbrochen werden. Sierra hat seine Prognose für Q1 zurückgezogen.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210323005460/en/​​​…

[DrillingsPapa]

Use of AirLink Management Services helps Miele to improve service for SelfService Laundries

Betrifft zunächst "nur" Miele in Dänemark:


https://www.sierrawireless.com/resources/case-study/airlink-…

[DrillingsPapa]

Sierra Wireless - Endlich mal ein guter Überblick

Da der Bericht nur unvollständig herüberkommt, hier der Link:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412710-sierra-wireless-dee…





Sierra Wireless: A Deeply Discounted IoT Play
Mar. 10, 2021 1:47 AM ETSierra Wireless, Inc. (SWIR)11 Comments10 Likes
Summary
Sierra Wireless continues to grow its recurring revenue stream via the buildout of its IoT Services business.
Though supply chain constraints are weighing on the guidance, the demand backdrop remains strong.
Yet, current valuations assign little to no value to the ex-Enterprise Solutions IoT business.
The latest business realignment should catalyze the unlocking of some sum-of-parts value.
Sierra Wireless (SWIR), a Canada-based global provider of machine-to-machine (M2M) products, looks to be on track to hit its ambitious long-term targets. In particular, the increasingly favorable recurring mix at ~27% of sales and the robust demand pipeline make the case for a significantly higher fundamental valuation going forward. While short-term trends are being impacted by component supply constraints, I believe the deeply discounted current valuation at ~0.8x EV/Sales underappreciates both the company’s existing business value and its path toward becoming a de facto IoT standard. With the demand outlook improving and a cash-rich balance sheet available, I see ample upside as the sum-of-parts valuation case becomes increasingly clear.

ChartData by YCharts
Supply Constraints Cloud an Improving Demand Backdrop
SWIR is not providing formal 1Q21 guidance this time around, given the ongoing macro uncertainties (driven by both the pandemic and supply chain visibility). But the demand read-through is positive, in my view, with management noting it had secured hardware orders and recurring revenue for 1Q21 of ~$125m, which would imply ~22% YoY growth. And with opex also set to decline sequentially, this further implies an improved adj EBITDA range of -$4.4m to -$3.4m for the coming quarter.



Source: Investor Presentation

But significant component supply shortages across basebands and PCBs, for instance, mean that the 1Q21 revenue guidance moves lower to ~$110m. As the impact is expected to result in a deferral beyond 1Q21 rather than a loss, though, I see upside ahead in the back half of the year as supply shortages ease. Overall, with the company well-positioned to benefit from IoT demand, as well as Low-Power Wide-Area solutions (LPWA) and emerging 5G product cycles, I still see an extensive runway ahead.

Long-Term Economics Intact for IoT Services
As Sierra transitions to IoT services, the company is not only building out a recurring revenue stream, but it is also addressing a much larger addressable market - per management, the IoT services market is sized at almost five times that of IoT devices. Thus far, SWIR has been making positive strides in this regard, with recurring IoT Services revenue up to $32.6m in 4Q20, while excluding autos, services growth would have accelerated to +25% YoY. The strength looks sustainable as well, with contribution from new wins, customer usage, and connected devices growth boosting the results.



Source: Investor Presentation

Going forward, expect more of the same – management not only reaffirmed its commitment to the long-term IoT Services strategy on its most recent quarterly call, but also reiterated its target to reach ~$200m in recurring IoT Services revenue by 2Q22 and ~$400m by 2Q24. Alongside the mix shift to recurring IoT services, the operating leverage means a ~14-16% three-year adj. EBITDA margin target is within reach. This implies ~$168–208m of adj. EBITDA generation, which compares to the -$24m in EBITDA in the prior year.

As I see it, there are two paths to value creation here – strategic value via a sale of the IoT Services division (at a sufficiently high valuation multiple) or shareholder value accretion via significantly improved long-term profitability as SWIR delivers on its IoT services growth targets.

Business Realignment Sheds Light on the Underlying Value
I think SWIR’s realignment into two business segments could prove to be a key catalyst in unlocking value. For context, the business will be split as follows - Enterprise Solutions (for Sierra’s gateways, asset tracking and monitoring business, and enterprise connectivity solutions) and IoT Solutions (for cellular modules from LPWA to highspeed embedded 5G broadband modules and IoT connectivity solutions). This reporting change makes sense post-automotive divestment, in my view, and should refocus investor attention on the recurring revenue shift within IoT.



Source: Investor Presentation

By breaking out Enterprise Solutions as a separate business segment as well, investors should gain more clarity into the sum-of-parts case here, particularly given Ericsson’s acquisition of Cradlepoint was closed for >5x fwd EV/Sales. For context, tacking on the Cradlepoint transaction multiple to Enterprise Solutions (which generated ~$142m in FY20 sales) alone would imply a segment valuation of $710m - greater than the current SWIR market cap.

Strong Balance Sheet Extends the Runway
While SWIR remains in cash burn mode (the company used ~$6m of FCF in 4Q20), the balance sheet remains cash-rich – the recent auto divestiture has boosted SWIR’s cash position to $171m with no debt. Plus, there’s an additional ~$20-$30m in savings to be unlocked from additional cost reductions and post the recent sale, which should have positive implications for the gross and operating margins in FY21. With 5G also likely to add stronger growth via better pricing for hardware sales, I see limited funding risk going forward.



Source: Investor Presentation

Per management, there aren’t any major gaps that need addressing in the portfolio, but with the transition to recurring revenue integrated IoT solutions, I think the net cash position offers good optionality for reinvestments across the remaining businesses. Alternatively, the cash also leaves various inorganic growth options on the table, from an M&A-driven acceleration in targeted verticals to expansion into new IoT segments.

Still a Deeply Discounted IoT Play
SWIR has had a great run of late, but the stock remains deeply discounted relative to the IoT universe comp group - at the current ~0.8x fwd EV/Sales multiple, SWIR trades at a significant discount to the likes of CalAmp (CAMP), Inseego (INSG), Telit (OTCPK:TTCNF), and u-blox (OTCPK:UBLXF). This seems unjustified, in my view, given the increasing recurring revenue mix and improved underlying demand trends (albeit masked by short-term supply shortages).

Plus, the realignment of business segments to better highlight sum-of-parts value should help, as will the net cash balance sheet. Using the Cradlepoint transaction (~5x Ev/Revenue) as a comparable, for instance, indicates the newly aligned Enterprise Solutions segment could be worth more than the current market cap, implying no value assigned to the IoT business or the net cash.

USD ‘m

Valuation (Enterprise Solutions @ 5x EV/Rev)

Valuation (Enterprise Solutions @ 2x EV/Rev)

Market Cap @ 9th Mar 2021

583

583

(-) Enterprise Solutions

710

284

(-) Net Cash

171

171

= Implied IoT (ex-Enterprise Solutions)

-298

128

Implied IoT Ev/Rev (ex-Enterprise Solutions)

NA

0.4x

Source: Author’s Est, Company Filings

This article was written by

Aaron Butler profile picture.
Aaron Butler
2.27K Followers
Semi-retired investor and former buy side professional. Formerly focused on special situations and event-dr...

[LugInvest]

Der IoT-Anbieter Sierra Wirless meldet Zahlen zum 4. Quartal 2020, die bei Umsatz und Ergebnis über den Markterwartungen liegen.

Umsatz: 120 Mio. USD (Erw. 117 Mio. USD)
Adj. Ergebnis je Aktie -0,19 USD (Erw.-0,26 USD)
Bruttomarge: 36 %
Anteil der wiederkehrenden Umsätze steigt auf über 27 %
Die Transformation zu einem IoT-Komplettanbieter schreitet erfolgreich voran. Das höhermargige Service-Geschäft legt kontinuierlich zu.

Die Aktie sollte mittel- und langfristig noch einiges an Kurspotenzial haben.

https://www.sierrawireless.com/-/media/iot/pdf/investor/2020…

[Flaschendreher]

Am 23.02. kommen die endgültigen Zahlen zu 2020 /4.Q.

Bei den aktuellen Details (Stand Cash/Schulden) und dem geplanten Verkauf der Auto.Sparte (auf Homepage nichts dazu vermeldet) ist da für die nähere Zukunft einiges zu erwarten.

Ob das alles im aktuellen Kurs bereits enthalten ist??? Ich seh das eigentlich nicht...

[Alfi001]

Test Test Test

[BuddyE]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 66.639.185 von LugInvest am 27.01.21 15:14:44

Interessant. Habe versucht rauszufinden was die für 2021 ohne den Automotivebereich an EBITDA/EBIT so anpeilen, aber bisher nichts gefunden. Nur den Ausblick hier:

"Sierra Wireless expects revenue to be above Street consensus of $116.5m in the Fourth Quarter of 2020, as well as being above Street consensus of $110.0 million in the First Quarter of 2021"

-->beinhaltet dieser Ausblick noch die Automotive-Produktsparte oder nicht ?

[LugInvest]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 66.608.786 von Flaschendreher am 26.01.21 09:52:28

Richtig verstanden... so steht es in der Pressemeldung!

Der Verkauf der Automotive-Produktsparte müsste hier maßgeblich wirken

[LugInvest]

Sierra Wirless, der kanadische IoT-Spezialist, meldet einen weiteren Vertriebserfolg. Die britische Virocom setzt auf die AirLink-Router sowie die Konnektivitätslösung von Sierra Wireless.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210127005254/en/