Thungela Resources (Ex-Anglo, therm. Export-Kohle) -- Drowning in Liabilities? (Seite 7)

[Oginvest]

Thungela to exceed dividend expectations after strong coal prices in second half of year

THUNGELA Resources was set to cap a successful debut on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange this year with a better-than-anticipated final dividend. This follows strong thermal coal prices in the second half of its financial year ended December.

Thungela Resources was created following the demerger of Anglo American’s export-focused thermal coal assets. It listed on June 7 amid a degree of scepticism. After a period of sell-offs, the company’s share price stabilised and has since gained 274% year to date. Shares in the company were 16% higher by around midday in Johannesburg today.

According to RMB Morgan Stanley, at the market’s current clip the group could close the year with roughly R9bn in cash, implying a payout of 3.5bn – although contributions to the coal firm’s rehabilitation fund had to be taken into account, it said. Thungela has a payout policy of a minimum 30% of adjusted operating free cash flow.

Commenting in a pre-close and trading statement, Thungela’s CFO Deon Smith said the group would register profits in respect of share earnings and headline share earnings following strong coal pricing. An announcement on the possible capital payout – which could also be in a share buy-back – would be around March 22 when Thungela presented its year-end number for the 12 months to December.

Smith also disclosed additional details of Thungela’s balance sheet management approach in which it would maintain a R5bn and R6bn liquidity buffer during periods of strong coal pricing and a R2bn to R3bn buffer during periods of weak pricing.

The benchmark export coal price averaged $123 per ton for the year-to-date and peaked at R210/t end-October before moderating to $141/t by the end of November. The discount applied to its export coal grades this year narrowed to 17% on average from 26% last year, and 23% in the first half of the current financial year.

Putting all this together, Smith said it was prudent Thungela maintained “… the upper end of its liquidity buffer”. As matters currently stood, that would mean Thungela retaining cash of about R6bn after distributing R2bn in a final dividend.

Commenting on the export price, Smith said supply constraints in the seaborne thermal coal market ex-Australia and Indonesia to China had helped improve demand for South African coal, as well as South Africa’s own freight constraints related to Transnet, the state-owned firm.
Trouble on the rail line

As per a similar year-end statement from Exxaro Resources last week, Thungela said Transnet division, Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) was leading a troubled existence currently. TFR problems had led to a stock build at its Khwezela complex where newly ramped up pit Navigation had been established to offset a loss of production from the mothballed (and high cost) Bokgoni pit.

Responding to analyst questions in a teleconference today, Smith estimated a capital build of about R1.2bn or the equivalent of some 2.5Mt across its mines.

Commenting more widely on the TFR-related sales bottlenecks, Smith said: “Production at other operations had been steady until October, but is only expected to return to optimal performance once on-mine stockpiles have been reduced”.

All in all, export saleable production for the year is expected to come in at 14.9 million tons (Mt) which is at the lower end of a 14.8 to 15.2Mt estimate given by Thungela in October. Export equity sales – excluding third party buy-ins – are expected to be 13.7Mt for the 12 months.

TFR has been scourged this year by acts of vandalism and theft on its rail network, including the Mpumalanga to Richards Bay coal line. TFR said earlier this year it was effectively ‘under attack’ of numerous armed gangs of up to 25 people stalking the line.

On the positive side, Thungela said that it would establish a beneficiation plant at its Goedehoop Colliery at a cost of R200m which would produce one million tons of coal a year for four years, starting March 2022

https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/48311-thungela-to-excee…

[Oginvest]

Thungela cuts annual coal target as Transnet’s rail performance slumps again
https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/47839-thungela-slashes-…

SA economic risk means banks reticent to entirely cut funding to its thermal coal sector
https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/47835-sa-economic-risk-…

Coal boss says world should allow SA to conduct energy transition at its own pace
https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/47819-coal-executive-sa…

[Oginvest]

SA coal miners to “make good money” for 10 years despite freight opportunity costs - Oct 5, 2021
https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/47727-sa-coal-miners-to…

[pickuru]

THUNGELA – 350% QUICK PROFIT FROM GREEN INSANITY

https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/thungel…

[Oginvest]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 69.133.547 von Oginvest am 24.08.21 12:23:13

https://theafricanmirror.africa/environment/south-africa-aim…

[Oginvest]

South Africa aims to bring pilot carbon capture project online in 2023

SOUTH Africa has started geological mapping at the country’s first carbon capture and storage (CCS) site, where it plans to inject vast quantities of CO2 deep underground from 2023, a senior Council for Geoscience official said.

The project will be based around the town of Leandra, Mpumalanga province, in South Africa’s northeast, a carbon emissions hotspot and home to several coal-fired power stations as well as Sasol’s Secunda coal-to-liquids fuel plant, the world’s largest.

Releasing around 470 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) a year, South Africa is the continent’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, and coal provides the bulk of its electricity.

CCS is controversial, with environmentalists saying it risks becoming an excuse to continue burning fossil fuels and could lead to neglect of nature’s own carbon capture system, forests, which also sustain biodiversity and rainfall.

Others however see it as essential to meeting the goal of a net carbon zero world economy by 2050. Its most enthusiastic backer is the global coal industry.

The South African government has repeatedly defended its right to tap into abundant coal deposits even as the country increases its use of renewable energy.

“South Africa will still be using coal for a very long time, so… we need to try and use it responsibly to limit CO2 emissions,” David Khoza, the CGS executive manager running the project, said.

The deadline for tapping a $23 million World Bank grant to fund the CCS project was originally set for December this year, but has now been pushed out to June 2023, a bank spokesperson told Reuters.

Khoza said the project will link a pipeline transporting compressed CO2 from major emitting sources such as Secunda directly to the identified injection site that is overlain with an “impermeable rock cap”.

“We will test the feasibility of injecting between 10,000 to 50,000 metric tons of CO2 (a year) to a depth of at least 1 km, with the first injection seen late in 2023,” Khoza said.

South Africa has approximately 150 gigatonnes of potential storage capacity, mainly in offshore basins on the east and west coast, researchers said.

Sasol said it was working with the CGS, although it said previous assessments showed the associated cost was very high and sequestration may not be economically viable.

“Sasol remains intent to collaborate with a view to learn more about the success factors for CO2 sequestration and explore partnerships for larger scale opportunities,” a spokesperson said.
https://theafricanmirror.africa/environment/south-africa-aims-to-bring-pilot-carbon-capture-project-online-in-2023/

[faultcode]

30.6.
Anglo Coal Spinoff Surges as Global Supply Curbs Boost Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-30/anglo-coa…
...
When Anglo American Plc’s South African coal spinoff was listed earlier this month, some shareholders rushed for the exit. Since then it’s risen 77% and some investors predict further gains as prices for the most polluting fossil fuel soar.

Thungela Resources Ltd. tumbled 12% from its opening trade on June 7 in Johannesburg, with a number of investors -- who received shares based on their investment in Anglo -- unwilling or unable to hold a company that directly exposes them to coal. Since then, Thungela’s rally has been more than triple the next best-performer on the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index.

Thungela has surged as coal climbed to a 13-year high on stronger demand from Asia. It’s also been helped by skepticism about the long-term future of coal, which is curbing investment in new mines.

“The negative perception surrounding coal is exactly the reason it is drawing in investors,” said Ben Davis, an analyst at Liberum Capital in London, adding that Thungela could more than double its current market value. “If investment is not being made in new coal supply and demand remains stable as expected, coal prices will do very well.”
...

The spinoff is the latest in a series of shifts in ownership of coal operations around the world, as the biggest producers offload assets while other investors see it as an opportunity to generate cash from the unloved mines. And it’s not only coal miners. AGL Energy Ltd., one of Australia’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters, will aim to complete work to split off its coal-fired power plants into a separate unit within 12 months.

Thungela sees an opportunity as it expects seaborne coal demand to remain constant for at least a decade. It also has an advantage over South African producers more geared to local consumers because it generates over 80% of its revenues from shipments to markets including China, India and Pakistan.
...

[Steigerwälder]

Bei derzeitigen Kohlepreisen könnte Thungela heuer mehr als die MCap verdienen.


Die Bären sagen dass die Reserven ohne Erweiterungs Capex nur für 7-8 Jahre reichen und die Aufräumarbeiten nach dem Ende der Kohleförderung ein paar Mrd. Kosten.

Bei derzeitigen oder noch niedriegeren preisen aber sicher interessant.

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 68.446.862 von faultcode am 08.06.21 22:50:18

das Ding entpuppt sich als MOMO-Rakete

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 68.446.769 von faultcode am 08.06.21 22:39:42

schon +32%

Symbol = TGA


https://www.moneyweb.co.za/tools-and-data/click-a-company/TG…