2006: > 100% mit Elan Corp - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Cyberhexe]

Schlusskurs 2005: $13.93
Ziel: mindestens $30

[Cyberhexe]

http://www.tixx.com/Marketocracy_Elan_Jan4_06.pdf

Marketocracy Alert:
We are issuing this alert because now is a great time to buy shares in Elan Corp. (nyse: ELN). Elan is presenting
tomorrow at an important investment banking conference and another next week. We’re expecting the FDA will
reapprove Elan’s multiple sclerosis (MS) drug, “Tysabri,” in the near future and several Wall St. analysts have just
issued “Sell” opinions on Elan giving us a great opportunity to buy shares before they rethink their opinions.
Citibank, Bank of America, and Merrill Lynch reiterated sell ratings on Elan recently. All three cited a belief that
even if the FDA does reapprove Tysabri in early 2006, Tysabri will generate only a fraction of the revenue originally
expected. One analyst projects Tysabri revenue to be only $500 million by the year 2010. They fear MS patients and
doctors will wait until more is known about the risk of Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy (PML) before
using Tysabri so the take up will be slow and Tysabri will never grow to become a very profi table drug.
Recommendation: (based on your portfolio)
If you do not already own ELN: Buy some at the current price.
If you currently have a small position in ELN: Look to add to the position on any weakness.
If ELN is already a big position: if ELN represents more than 10% of your portfolio you have my congratulations.
You made a good buy and I would sit tight.
Why the Wall St. Analysts are Wrong
1. The FDA will approve Tysabri: We’ve written several articles and a 10-page Research Report on Elan explaining
why we believe it will be approved. (to receive the Elan Research Report or our recent articles, please send an email
request to: [e-mail])
2. MS patients will start using Tysabri ASAP
3. More patients will use Tysabri than expectedMS Patients Will Start Using Tysabri ASAP
Kelly Martin, the CEO of Elan, expects more than 25,000 patients to begin taking Tysabri when it is available again.
That equates to $575 million and is more revenue at the outset than Wall St. is projecting in 2010.
Marketocracy’s collaborative research process has tapped into our membership and the responses we’ve received
support Mr. Martin’s belief. MS patients have told us that they had degenerated from MS over such a long period of
time that they had forgotten what it was like to feel good -- until they used Tysabri. They felt so good they almost
forgot that they had MS. Unfortunately, when Tysabri was suspended, they quickly reverted back and the difference
was a shock. These patients want Tysabri back.
The MS community is very connected. Success stories from using Tysabri have spread quickly and the even those
that haven’t tried Tysabri are anxiously waiting for it to be re-released.
Wall St. believes MS patients and their doctors will be so afraid of PML that they will wait to use it. Let’s put PML in
the proper perspective. Only 0.1% of the patients that used Tysabri in combination with another immunosuppressive
drug, Avonex, contracted PML. A recent study showed that the mortality risk for aspirin is 0.2%. And so far, there
have been no cases of PML in patients who took Tysabri alone in monotherapy. There are 100,000 patients in the
U.S. that the other MS drugs: Copaxone, Rebif, Avonex, and Betaseron (CRABs) have already failed to help. These
patients can take Tysabri immediately in monotherapy with even less risk of PML and cut their risk of a relapse by
50%.
More patients will use Tysabri than expected
The U.S. market for Tysabri will be much bigger than Wall St. is expecting because they haven’t considered that the
300,000 MS patients who are currently using other drugs. They assume that because Tysabri may be approved for
monotherapy that MS patients on other drugs will not use Tysabri.
Wall St. is underestimating the willingness of these patients to give up their current drugs just so they can use
Tysabri. MS patients who are on another drug may have to go off their meds for several months so their bodies will
be clear of the old drug before they can start on Tysabri in monotherapy. I have heard from MS patients that, against
their doctors advice, have already stopped taking other MS drugs so they can start taking Tysabri as soon as it is
available again. This tells me that Tysabri sales are going to ramp faster than Wall Street expects.
If 10% of these patients switch to Tysabri, it would mean an additional 30,000 MS patients that Wall Street is not
counting on. So, the potential U.S. market for Tysabri may be more than twice as big as Wall Street expects.
Good things happen to stocks that surprise Wall Street to the upside. If I’m right, Wall Street is in for a big upside
surprise.
Elan is presenting at two important conferences: the Morgan Stanley Pharmaceutical CEO’s Unplugged Conference
on January 5, and the JP Morgan 24th Annual Healthcare Conference on January 10. Kelly Martin, has a Wall
Street background and the data on his side so I think he is going to be convincing. If he does a good job at these
conferences, we could see Elan’s stock start to move as the great Wall Street herd starts to change its mind on Tysabri

[jojobada]

Wenn Ihr ein Lineal an den Monitor haltet, könnt Ihr in etwa
ausrechnen wie lange Elan bis 20,00 braucht.

[hechtbarsch]

sehr guter Tipp Cyberhexe und jojobada!

cu hb

[Poppholz]

ausgehend vom Eröffnungskurs am 02. Januar 2006 von €11,26 haben wir heute bereits über 18% gemacht.

Kurs aktuell: €13,30

[Cyberhexe]

nun ja...das Frühjahr ist durch den 90-Tage-Aufschub der amerikanischen Arzneimittelbehörde FDA bei der Zulassung von Tysabri nicht optimal verlaufen.
Doch die heissen Tage des Sommers stehen ja noch bevor.

Anbei ein Link, der eine gute Zusammenfassung des AC (=Advisory Committee = Expertenkommission der FDA, welches die Widerzulassung von Tysabri diskutiert hat) vom 7./8.3.2006 bietet, allerdings nur in Englisch:
http://www.stones.net/TysabriAC.pdf

Die nächste wichtigen Termine:

20.4.06 Springfield Sympossium in Genf = Alzheimer-Sympossium, auf welchem Elan gemeinsam mit Wyeth die Phase I-Ergebnisse zu Bapineuzumab (AAB-001, einem monoklonalen Antikörper, der die Plaquebildung im Gehirn verhindert) einer breiten Öffentlichkeit vorstellen wird
http://www.siumed.edu/cme/alzheimer/Alzglance.pdf
siehe 20.4.06 ab 13.30h

4.5.06 Quartalsergebnis

25.5.06 "Annual General Meeting" = Jahreshauptversammlung

spätestens zum 28.6.06 Entscheidung der FDA über die Zulassung von Tysabri (Expertenkommission hat mit 12:0 für die Zulassung gestimmt, mit 7:5 sogar als "first line treatment"

2.Halbjahr 2006 Zulassungsentscheid der europäischen Arzneimittelbehörde EMEA zu MS; Morbus Crohn eventuell auch

im Laufe des Jahres sollten weitere Abkommen bezüglich der NanoChrystalTechnology vermeldet werden - die bisherigen Abkommen mit vielen Grössen der Pharmabranche unter folgendem Hyperlink:
http://www.elan.com/EDT/Announcements/

man beachte hierbei, dass alle wasserunlöslichen Wirkstoffe potentielle Kandidaten für diese patentierte Technologie sind. Und zwar besteht die Möglichkeit physikalisch sehr kleine Kristalle zu erzeugen, so dass dies bei den schwer wasserlöslichen Wirkstoffen deren Bioverfügbarkeit massiv erhöht. Das grosse Potential liegt einerseits bei geringeren Dosen, andererseits aber auch bei der Möglichkeit, sich nach Ablauf des Patentschutzes von generischen Konkurrenten abzugrenzen.