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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/06/11/rtr996774.…

Newmont says Aussie gold hedge book getting close to zero

Reuters, 06.11.03, 10:32 AM ET

NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The chief executive of world No. 1 gold miner Newmont Mining Corp. (nyse: NEM - news - people) said Wednesday the company`s controversial Australian gold hedge book was getting close to zero after its recent buyout from its bankers of most of the unprofitable hedges of its Yandal operations.

"You can`t quite say `zero,` but we`re getting close. It`s zero for all intents and purposes, in my mind," Wayne Murdy, in responses to a question from Reuters after delivering a speech on accounting in the mining industry.

Last week, Newmont Mining announced a $77 million payout to six of seven counterparties to pay 50 cents on the dollar for the money-losing hedge positions of Newmont Yandal Operations Ltd. (Yandal), acquired in Newmont`s 2002 merger with Normandy Mining and Canada`s Franco-Nevada Corp.

Murdy was speaking at a conference hosted by accounting firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service

[ThaiGuru]

Wusst ich`s doch!

Gestern ist der Kriegstreiber gleich in seiner Zweifaltigkeit nach wochenlanger Versenkung wieder aufgetaucht und hat uns Gold Bugs wieder mal den Zusammenbruch des Goldespreises prophezeit.

Darum steigt wohl heute der Goldpreis wieder!

[ThaiGuru]

Darum hat der Goldpreis gestern eins auf den Deckel gekriegt!

Ohne den gestrigen Abverkauf, würde der Goldpreis vermutlich heute bereits wieder auf weit über 370.- Dollar stehen. Das wurde vom Gold Cabal vorderhand noch erfolgreich verhindert.

" Politik der USA Regierung." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Der Dollar fällt weiter, und testet neue Tiefs, trotz "starker Dollar" Politik der USA Regierung.

[erdede]

@ThaiGuru

vergiss den Pfinstmontag-Ausflug auf 366 nicht, klassisch nach Gauss, der Goldpreis wurde flugs von Cabal zurückgepfiffen...

es ist einfach zu wenig Nachfrage da... es fehlt einfach an Kraft


erdede

[Basic]

Hallo Thai,
sehe ich auch so, die Unterstützung wird zur Zeit in EUR und nicht in USD definiert.
Die Grenze lieg bei 300 sieht bombenfest aus. Wenn Gold weiter fallen sollte, muss endweder der Dollar stärker werden oder die 300 EUR fallen.

Auch Silber hält sich gut.

Gruß Basic

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Nachfrage nach Gold ist schon sehr reichlich verhanden. Darum besteht ja auch seit Jahren ein Produktionsdefizit. Das Problem ist halt noch, dass die Nachfrage nach Papier Gold mit dem fast unbegrenzten Papier Angebot des Gold Cabals nicht Schritt halten kann, und demzufolge die Preise leicht beeinflusst werden können.

Sobald die Hedgefonds und die anderen grossen Käufer an der Comex, anfangen sich ihre gekauften Papier Gold Kontrakte physisch aushändigen zu lassen, dürfte dieses Fiat Money Spiel der Gold Bullion Banken schnell zu ende sein, da mit Sicherheit nicht genügend verfügbares physisches Gold verhanden ist, um diese Kontrakte alle zu bedienen.

Diese Zeit wird vielleicht eher kommen, als manch einem Gold Bug bewusst ist.

Es fehlt nur noch ein Initialzünder, wie ein weiterer Kriegsherd, z.Bsp mit einem Mitglied der Achse des Bösen, crashende Börsen, ein stark fallender Bondmarkt, eine platzende Imobilienblase, z.Bsp. in den USA, ein grösserer Banken-, oder Versicherungskonkurs irgenwo auf dieser Welt, ein crashender Dollar, eine Zahlungsunfähigkeitserklärung eines weiteren Staates, ala Argentinien, ein witerer grösserer Finanzskandal, die wirkliche Einführung der zur Zeit in Japan diskutierten Negativstrafverzinsung von Baranlagen auf Konten, oder die Aufdeckung des Goldpreis Manipulationsskandals einiger weniger Gold Bullion Banken, unter Rückendeckung der FED.

Du darfst dir einen, oder mehrere Initialzünder dazu selber aussuchen.

Darum bleib ich besser immer schön im Gold, und Goldaktien investiert!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[erdede]

@ThaiGuru

Du sagt es!

Sobald die Hedgefonds und die anderen grossen Käufer an der Comex, anfangen sich ihre gekauften Papier Gold Kontrakte physisch aushändigen zu lassen, dürfte dieses Fiat Money Spiel der Gold Bullion Banken schnell zu ende sein, da mit Sicherheit nicht genügend verfügbares physisches Gold verhanden ist, um diese Kontrakte alle zu bedienen.
Initialzünder? Naja... und in New York geht die Rally weiter...wie lange noch? Bewertung spielt ja keine Rolle mehr... alles ist günstig was steigt..

Bis dahin haben die Cabals ein leichtes Spiel...

im Februar hätten wir längst die 400er geknackt und wären gut ein Stück weiter gelaufen. Jetzt ist die Schmerzgrenze bei 375 richtung 357 fallend, den Fibonacci-Retracements entsprechend, wenn immer nur möglich.

Tja, wer warten kann, kann warten

erdede

[ThaiGuru]

@Basic

Wäre doch schön wenn der Goldpreis zukünftig gleich ganz in Euro gehandelt würde, oder zumindest in englischen Pfund, wie es früher bereits der Fall war. Da hätten wir Gold Bugs sicher unsere Freude daran, vor allem dann, wenn das Goldpreis Fixing von einer etwas neutraleren Institution vorgenommen würde.

Liegt ja eigentlich auf der Hand, da das Goldpreis "Fixing" ja eh 2x täglich in London von der London Bullion Market Association *LBMA* bestimmt wird. Die Eigentumsverhältnisse der privaten LBMA, überschneiden sich ja bekanntlich teilweise mit denen der privaten Federal Reserv Bank *FED* und derjenigen der privaten Bank of England.

Wie dieses "Goldpreis Fixing" von statten geht, wer die bestimmenden Mitglieder sind, etc., davon wissen wohl nur die allerwenigsten wirklich bescheid:

Uebersicht:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/aboutus.html

Die Mitglieder der ehrenswerten Gesellschaft

http://www.lbma.org.uk/members_list.html

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"It is also notable how few ounces influence so many, and are probably contributing to a distorted market. The two London Gold Fixes are set on volumes of just 160,000 to 500,000 ounces typically."

Quelle: CPM Group’s Gold Survey 2003

Auch zum Irrglauben der allermeisten Gold Anlegern, dass der Goldpreis Chart, den wir hier im Gold Board aus verschiedensten Quellen, wie KITCO, INO, COMDIRECT, etc., immer wieder sehen können, irgend etwas von Bedeutung mit dem realen physischen Goldhandel zu tun haben könnte, ein absolut zutreffendes Zitat:

“The physical market has been very small compared to the derivatives trading based on it. Yet, it is surprising the extent to which many gold market observers could not see this very fat, very enormous tail that was waging the dog.”

Quelle: CPM Group’s Gold Survey 2003

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Companies/0,,2-8-24_137…

Gold miners offer NUM 6.5% rise

11/06/2003 21:35 - (SA)

Justin Brown

Johannesburg - Gold miners, affiliated to the Chamber of Mines (CoM), have offered the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) a 6.5% increase effective from July 1, 2003 while the coal collieries have offered 8%.

The CoM and NUM on Wednesday concluded their second round of negotiations and agreed to meet again on June 17 and 18.

The gold miners also agreed to a minimum wage of R2 000 for all workers, surface and underground, within two years.

For some companies, this implies increases of 12.9% per annum in the minimum wage for both years.

Furthermore, a three-year agreement was proposed, with the increases in the second and third years being equal to inflation (subject to certain escape clauses).

The coal miners agreed to a second year of a two-year deal, proposing a wage increase equal to inflation, subject to a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 7%.

In addition to the wage offers, the gold and coal companies offered bonuses, a 12.5% employer contribution to the retirement fund, free accommodation or a living out allowance, free health care for the employees and a holiday leave allowance equal to a 13th cheque.

"The parties spent a considerable amount of time in the formulation of programmes to further improve the socio-economic conditions of employees. All parties agreed that this was an important priority, which should take place as part of a phased approach spread over a reasonable period of time, so that the long-term sustainability of the mining industry is not threatened," the CoM said in a statement.

In this regard progress was made on the following issues:

An accommodation framework, which outlines a timetable to ensure that employees have a choice in respect of accommodation options, including family accommodation. There remain a few unresolved issues in this regard.

Most aspects relating to the creation of a conducive environment for the employment of women in mining, including paid maternity leave.

Gold mines made progress on health care for employees and dependants.

The demand relating to bonuses and allowances.

Outsourcing and subcontracting.

Care for disabled workers.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030611/115257_1.html

Press Release Source: Sterling Mining Company


Sterling Mining Company Leases the Sunshine Mine

Wednesday June 11, 9:06 am ET

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 11, 2003--Sterling Mining Company (OTCBB:SRLM - News), is very pleased to announce that it has signed a lease, with option to purchase, on the world-famous Sunshine Mine, the richest silver mine in American history with more than 350 million ounces of production over the past century.
At the time of its closure in early 2001, the Sunshine was producing at a rate of over three million ounces of silver per year at an average grade of approximately twenty ounces per ton. The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver.

The lease term extends for fifteen years with an annual payment of $120,000 and with an option to purchase the mine set between $3 million and $5 million, depending upon the prevailing silver price. Mine production is subject to various royalties related to past arrangements with federal, state and tribal entities.

Sterling President Ray De Motte stated, "Our corporate strategy has been to enhance shareholder value by increasing our silver assets, with our primary focus on the Coeur d`Alene Mining District. The lease-option agreement signed today gives Sterling effective control of the region`s most historically productive silver mine, putting the Sunshine in local hands for the first time in decades. We firmly believe that this transaction, coupled with a plan to evaluate the feasibility of renewed production, serves not merely the interests of our shareholders but also of the entire local community."

Sterling Mining Company is an aggressive silver exploration company, focused upon the Coeur d`Alene Mining District, the richest primary silver-producing region on Earth. Sterling offers superior leverage to silver price increases through control of extensive and strategic "Silver Valley" landholdings, including the legendary Sunshine Mine, as well as through significant projects in other historic mining districts of the Western United States. Sterling was founded in 1903 and proudly celebrates a century of mining exploration this year.

Sterling Mining Company of Idaho is not affiliated with Sterling Mining Company of Montana.

Certain statements contained in this press release are "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on beliefs of management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to management. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Sterling Mining Company
Raymond DeMotte, 208/676-0599
www.sterlingmining.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Sterling Mining Company

*****

STERLING MINING (Other OTC:SRLM.PK)

Heute von 0.63 auf 0.80 Dollar, um 26.98% gestiegen



2 Jahres Chart. Heutiger Anstieg ist noch nicht im Chart enthalten!

Sterling Mining, schein anscheinend auch von einem stark ansteigenden Silberpreis auszugehen. Falls der von vielen erwartete starke Silberpreisanstieg realität werden sollte, ein kluger Schachzug von SRLM.

Jetzt wird auch klar, wiso die Sunshine Mining Aktie im Vorfeld von 0.20 auf bis max. 0.80 Dollar gestiegen war.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

June 11 - Gold $355.30 up $3.50 - Silver $4.50 up 4 cents

Gold Pops Back As Oil Soars And The Dollar Sinks

In the bivouac of Life,
Be not like dumb, driven cattle!
Be a hero in the strife." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"In the world`s broad field of battle,
In the bivouac of Life,
Be not like dumb, driven cattle!
Be a hero in the strife.
- Longfellow -

GO GATA!!!

The gold fundamentals continue to improve almost on a daily basis. Two factors that tend to affect the price of gold in a major way are the prices of oil and the dollar. Oil surged to $32.36, up 63 cents, while the dollar sank to 93.02, down .60. It couldn’t even close once above 94. The euro rose .64 to 117.41 and the pound gained .016 to 1.66. Meanwhile, the Freddy Mac scandal has leaped into the criminal arena.

Falling interest rates and increasingly negative REAL interest rates. Then, you have significant producer short-covering, surging physical buying out of India (see JB below), falling interest rates and increasingly negative REAL interest rates. Pile mounting problems in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East on top of that.

All in all, the gold fundamentals don’t get much better. If gold were freely traded, it would easily be $400 bid by now. Instead, it is only $30 higher than it was a year ago.

Contrast the trending bond, dollar and DOW with gold:

Treasury bonds
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/63

The dollar
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/63

The DOW
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DJ/63

Only gold was jolted out of its trend. There is only one explanation. The Gold Cartel was not about to let gold move through $370 to the upside, so they mobilized enough gold to bash it down and turn the funds sellers. That is evidenced by the 7965 lot contraction in open interest yesterday, which now stands a little more than 201,000.

Gold needs to take out $360 and close above that level to put the bullish fire back in the market. Normally, it takes weeks to months for gold to regroup and head back up after breaking down like this. However, the fundamentals are SO bullish, it is hard for me to imagine that being the case. We shall see.

Silver plunged all the way down to $4.40 before reversing. Funds sold and the goon squad, led by JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, were buyers. Silver seems very much sold out to me and should start a significant move higher. FINALLY!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, June 11, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.15, PM $8.25, with world gold at $354 and $353.80. Far above legal import point. Unless some very sustained new factor has entered the market, the world price of gold is too low.

TOCOM had an extraordinary and very interesting day. On enormous volume, equal to 102,949 Comex contracts, up 81% from yesterday, $US gold rose $2.40 from the NY close (which still involved a 24 yen decline from Tuesday’s close) but open interest actually fell the equivalent of 3,614 Comex lots. This effectively reverses the sudden, large, open interest increase of yesterday, and increases the suspicion that the price decline/volume and open interest jump yesterday was short selling by offshore operators.(NY yesterday traded 78,280 lots: open interest fell a huge 7,965 lots.)

Commentaries on yesterday’s action are unusually explicit in asserting that at least some of the action was dealer short selling. Dow Jones refers to

"…heavy dealer short selling…"

UBS attributes the weak close to:

"…futher selling from the same speculative name…".

However, the large open interest fall does suggest that a considerable quantity of spec longs were in fact liquidated. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold collapsed an unusually large amount, 7 points to 68% (lowest since May 13, at which point gold was $2 lower, but the Dollar Index 3% higher). Considering these factors and the Indian premium, it would be surprising if the Bear raid were not close to exhaustion.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

he DOW (9183, + 128) and DOG (1646, + 18) keep going up and up.


GATA’s Mike Bolser last evening:

Hi Bill:

The last ten gold trading sessions have yielded patterns unrelated to the major currencies. Note particularly the lack of similarity between the Euro and the Gold price shown on the attached chart.

In such conditions we can expect arbitrageurs to step in soon and correct the resultant temporary imbalance in the gold price.

Mike

and again this morning:

Hi Bill:

Tomorrow will bring a pretty big repo expiration of $19.50Billion. Today`s add of $7.75 ups the repo total pool to $41.25 Billion and is the reason for the DOW`s rise today.

Unless the Fed adds at least $19.50B the total pool will fall tomorrow. If the Fed adds nothing the pool will stand at $21.75B and that has not been sufficient to keep the DOW up [during the interval of Nov through the present]. So we have an opportunity to see if the Fed wants the DOW even higher that it is today or they want to begin a down cycle.

My guess is they are out of benevolent options [especially with the mess at Freddie Mac] and will continue ramming the DOW higher at all costs. So we can look for a $10B or so add tomorrow. Additional evidence of this potential to keep rocketing the DOW is seen in the anomalous bond market activity. It keeps setting new highs].

This is the Mises "Crack-Up Boom where everybody thinks they are rich from the proliferation of paper financial instruments [Please ignore the falling dollar]. The last missing element is a "New paradigm" media spin campaign to explain higher stock AND bond moves.

I can hardly wait.

Mike

Chuck checked in last evening:

Bill:

Very interesting day in the golds, now that the gap has been filled. On Bloomberg the reason they are giving for gold`s weakness is due to the jewelry trade. At least, they have a grip on it.

One must be impressed with NEM and GSS as they could have been slaughtered, but the volume remains high which I think is very positive.

Maybe once the rates goes under zero, the market will sell off. Amazing! Tomorrow should be interesting in the gold complex…………

I was just reflecting about the action in these incredible markets. I include this chart of the XAU to show that something extremely dynamic is afoot here. We have had three major gaps in this average, gold down $15 in the past three days and yet the XAU has barely budged near its top.

Given the relentless superliberal flow of funds from the "authorities" that is flooding the markets and this action, and the very positive technical signs for gold and now silver and the contrary signs for the stock market, I assume we might be ready for your long anticipated blow out here. If there ever was a day to punish the shares, it was today and yet on very heavy volume they commended themselves most admirably. A new high on NEM might be the signal for the rest of the troops to launch out. It this is to be, it should be soon. Chuck

Then again this afternoon:

How fascinating and rigged!

Bill:

I am totally transfixed by this amazing market. Is there any other word for it? For anyone who loves markets and has time to study them, appreciate this very moment of history. When have we ever had such relentless buying, with no setbacks or testing? And with a bond market that displays the same character. And with no questioning of it as the economic statistics get worse and worse. The Investors Intelligence survey out today now has extended to 58% bulls and 16% bears, the lowest number since…..1987. What will be the trigger of the reversal. It is anybody’s hunch or opinion how this will play out as the world monetary giants pour in as much liquidity as they can to stem and overturn the deflationary forces at work.

What I see now is that there is a white knight coming to the rescue-gold. This monopoly game cannot constrain the metal much longer. And if you are watching closely, the shares are starting to outshine the metal. In the past few days as gold filled its gap in the low $350’s, the shares started to display some relative oomph.

Market moves are highlighted by quality leadership. In the stock market these stocks are IBM, MSFT and WMT. Each of these has been having problems getting out of its own way even during this mindless compulsive buying binge. In spite of the daily move up, you cannot find a quality industrial stock making new highs here. But in the gold complex, we have Newmont, the one the large funds can buy first, and Freeport McMoran, (FCX) a copper and gold company with very large reserves, breaking out. This is how bull markets act. We should soon see others attending the breakout party, especially those companies with fresh stories and legitimate properties or production. There will be new leadership in this very powerful phase, most likely coming from the smaller mining companies not constrained by being too large.

Put all of this in perspective, and I believe we have come to the very threshold of something very special both in the market and in the gold complex. Take it all in. What is about to happen will change the world forever. Chuck Cohen [e-mail]

US stock market bullish sentiment is soaring as Chuck noted:

Advisors’ Sentiment Review

June 11th 2003

Bears run for cover - now at lowest level since April 10th 1987.

Its getting harder and harder to find a bearish advisor as they continue to run for the hills. Don’t fight the Fed and don’t fight the Tape were slogans coined by Marty Zweig, and advisors are currently following that. "Don’t fight the Fed" had not been a good idea from January 2001, when they first started to cut rates, until this March when the market surge started. Only 16.3% of the services continue to be bearish, the lowest since April 10th, 1987, more than 16 years ago.

-END-

Right on the money from Craig Harris:

HARRIS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC.

Today I was thinking about how desensitized the share markets have become to what would have previously been considered significant factors. If you don`t believe the financial engineers are propping it up, it sort of leaves you without an explanation. Some speculate that The DOW keeps walking on air from a steady diet of Fed intervention through its release of repurchase agreements. Their total repo pool level is reportedly $36.5 Billion.

In addition, they have all but flat out said that they are using new money to buy 30 year bonds, forcing interest rates lower and forcing some of the cash used for bond buybacks into stocks. If you read between the lines a little, that`s certainly what I come up with. We are living through what I consider a very dangerous evolution in the financial markets, where the g8 wants to engineer our financial reality rather than letting the free markets< do so. A stock or bond is only worth what it`s worth...not what someone engineers it to be worth....so in that sense the financial engineers are dealing with a spread of engineered value versus free market value. It`s just a very dangerous game but I guess they feel they have no other alternative.

I`ve watched these markets every single day, all day for years and I`m watching this Orwellian evolution that extends from politics to the financial markets. Maybe we will evolve to a point where the markets are happily compliant, engineered by the G8 through massive derivative leverage and that will be that...or maybe there is a limit to how high the house of cards can get....one thing for sure is that it would be the first time in history that the free markets didn`t win in the end. Is it different
this time? Anyway, this is sort of the theme tonight...and I`m not whining, just realizing what is real and trying to determine how to profit and how to avoid joining the pile of cordwood at the bottom of the cliff.

As an example of this desensitization I`m talking about, this latest Freddie Mac scandal was basically greeted with a yawn by the broad market, as was the IBM SEC inquiry. You all know I`ve long suspected IBM book cooking, and if one of the most trusted names in the planet is doing it...well use your common sense. That said, the firing of the FRE Board is a big deal to me. With Freddie, we are talking about numbers so large it`s hard to fathom. To find out they`re cooking the books...well, I can`t say it`s unexpected, but it`s most certainly bad. To me it just indicates a systemic rot of ethics and corporate behavior that is being downplayed by the politicians, not fixed. They`re using the Japanese method...sweep it under the rug, while at the same time criticizing Japan for doing so and blaming Japan`s mess on that sort of behavior. What`s real? they`re crooks...that`s what`s real. Biiiig slice of pie for me...little tiny one for you...while muttering...catch me if you can. Poor Martha gets to be the scapegoat. That`s sort of like arresting a private for the war crimes of a dictator. whatever...the truth doesn`t seem to matter anymore thanks to the Ruperts of the world. FOX news...now that`s an oxymoron.

US home loan chief fired over audit inquiry

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,974367,00.html

An apparent derailing of this much hyped road map wasn`t even noticed by the market. I wasn`t surprised at all by the latest Israel attack that GWB is supposedly so upset about, if you want to know why they attacked, read the old newsletters. If you want to hear the other side, listen to Rupert...he`ll tell you why it was necessary.

-END-

On the Freddy Mac scandal:

Bill-

I believe that this is a highly significant event. Quasi- government agencies simply don`t fire the CEO, COO and CFO for simple bookkeeping problems or "failure to co-operate with the outside auditors. " Something of great magnitude occurred here, probably related to derivatives. Perhaps some of your sources can get to the bottom of it. I suspect that the FED and all of its cohorts will be working overtime behind the scenes to clean up this mess.
As an aside, LTCM was in trouble for several months but it wasn`t until late August/early September,1998 that other people started to get an inkling of how bad things really were. Perhaps we have a far bigger problem about to descend on us in August, 2003.

Best regards,

Bob

Not to be ignored as Bob says:

June 10, 2003 -- The bookkeeping time bomb being probed at Freddie Mac could yank the rug out from under our booming housing market - the last leg holding up the economy.

Economists and analysts fear that the scandal could trigger a domino effect in our banking system that could push historically low mortgage rates - now down to 41/2 percent - soaring in the weeks ahead.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"If rates rise, the housing bubble will pop," said mortgage expert Martha Kaufman, chief operating officer of Prudential`s Preferred Empire, one of New York`s top 10 mortgage brokers.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"It`s all still a very wait-and-see situation."

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Wall Street reacted immediately to news of the Freddie Mac shakeup, and sent housing and banking stocks tumbling. "There`s a lot of smoke here, and many are convinced there`s fire. But no one knows exactly what`s involved yet," said portfolio manager Bill King….

-END-

Hi Bill,

I follow this market as closely as anyone and there is a "linkage" missing that would greatly benefit from an explanation from you.

Can you explain for the "common folk" how the futures market can control the price and how it relates to the physical market. What`s the difference if there are annual deficits in silver and gold if the price can be capped with Comex (shorts) contracts?

In order to get some conviction your readers need to know the relationship of these two different markets. The more simple you can make this the better.

Regards,

David Schectman

The futures market can only affect the price for a short period of time. Eventually, gold must be delivered by the gold shorts to the gold longs. The key is the yearly supply/demand deficit. If it is large as we think, say 1400 tonnes, then The Gold Cartel and other big shorts are doomed. They will run out of supply, no matter what games they play in the short-term with derivatives contracts. That is also why GATA’s gold loan/swap number is so important. If they are close to the 5000 minus number put out by the WGC, gold will not seriously advance for almost a decade.

On the COT report and more:

Hi Bill:

Glad to hear the Vancouver conference was a good done. Looking forward to the report on the details.

I am enclosing the gold story from ODJ concerning this afternoon`s debacle for your reading entertainment. I thought I would make some comments regarding the Commitments data that might be of some use to the newer members at the Cafe. As another old trading hand yourself, you know full well that in the `typical` market, whenever the big specs (funds) manage to accrue a significantly large number of net long or net short positions and the commercials are holding significantly large net short or net long postions on the opposite side of the funds , one can look for a reaction or market reversal opposite the direction that the funds are committed to and in favor of the big commercials. The reasons - or so goes conventional wisdom - is that the commercials are the ones whose actual business consists of dealing with the specific commodity that underlies the futures contract and thus are supposedly better informed as to the "real" happenings in the physical market. After all, it only stands to reason, that if one`s business consists of either producing a marketable commodity such as one of the grains or cocoa or sugar , etc., or using that commodity as input to a particular product such a copper wire, orange juice, cotton shirts, etc., that firm ought to be in constant contact with suppliers, producers or end users and as such, be intimately acquainted with what constitutes "value" in the industry. Thus, they understand when a particular commodity is "cheap" or when it is "dear." Since the physical market is what underlies all futures markets, sooner or later, the physical market realities exert their influence on the futures contracts. When prices have been driven to unsustainable lofty levels or depressed to unsustainably low levels by the funds, the savvy commercials will be either selling or buying like crazy knowing full well that the market has reached an extreme level that in the real physical world represents a bargain or a tremendous opportunity.

In an normal market and one that trades free from interference, this can prove to be a most profitable tactic to follow. Once the big funds commit to huge positions, all it takes is a price movement of some sort in the opposite direction to send them heading to the exits in masse resulting in huge price moves. The problem occurs when we come to the gold market. Just who are the "commericals" in the gold market? Are gold mining entities considered entities? So we could assume, all things considered, that among the huge commercial short positions a goodly number would be those of the mining interests. Following `conventional wisdom`, if the mining outfits are piling on short positions, then it is obvious that they consider the current prices to be extreme levels and have moved beyond "value" and thus gold is "too expensive" at these levels and is therefore a screaming sell. In a normal market, that would be a good way of reading this market. However, we know that this is simply not the case when it comes to gold.

The biggest problem facing the mining companies is trying to exit their short hedge positions which are underwater. Simply put, they are trying to buy, not sell. Newmont is reducing its hedges and even Placer Dome and the notorious Barrick are making noises in their reports and to analysts that they are reducing their hedge positions in the face of the rising gold price and bullish long term fundamentals. As a manner of promoting their particular company, many mining CEO`s are making it clear that they are completely unhedged and thus stand to benefit immensely as the price of gold continues its relentless move upward. So again the obvious question that any gold investor ought to be asking - Just who are these "commercials" who are tripping over themselves to add to an already huge net short position. It is certainly not those who need to buy gold for manufacturing purposes such as a jewelry interests. The risk they are exposed to is not falling gold prices but rather rising gold prices. If the gold they need to manufacture their rings and necklaces, etc., is coming down in price they are happy as larks. Their concern is if the price of the raw material they need begins to increase. Their profit margins then are squeezed. Prudence dictates that they would establish what are termed "long hedges." They will buy futures contracts corresponding to the amount of physical gold they intend to purchase to help offset any rise in gold prices. If gold rises and they are then forced to pay up, they can simply sell their future contracts at a higher price than they bought them for using those profits to offset the increasd cost that they must pay for the physical gold they require on the open market. That`s the way a hedge is suppoed to work. So we can rule these interests out.

We have eliminated two commercial interest groups - the mining outfits and jewelry interests. Both of these groups are buying , not selling. Who else is left in the industry that can be considered a commercial? Who is it that is doing the massive selling then that constitutes the bulk of the net short positions on the Comex. The answer - The bullion banks. There`s your culprit. The obvious question then that any astute trader or investor should be asking is, "Why are they selling if everyone in the industry is buying?" Welcome to GATA`s camp!

Dan Norcini

From the Netherlands:

Bill,

congrats on Barrick, you`re right again..
bye the way...almost all goldminingstocks are at the end of a triangle in the
1-year chart I noticed this afternoon...breakout-time on a short notice. –END-

Some insight into the stock trading action and more from a sharp internet poster:


Black Blade (6/10/03; 21:50:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 104441)
Market Wrap Up – Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

For the last three trading days, the Dow has gone up 350 points, all in the first and last thirty minutes of trading. During all three days, the Dow has fallen badly through most of the trading session, but with the intervention at the open and at the close, we stand at breakeven for the three trading days. Please take a look at the chart above, and you can see that this just doesn’t look like a market that is plodding its way higher. You can see it looks like a big lift, then a steady sell-off until the next lift. I believe money is moving from the Federal Reserve Repo pool through the "institutions" to the S&P futures market. Last week I saw a floor trader interviewed on CNBC and he made it clear that the institutions were at it first thing in the morning to buy S&P futures, "IN SIZE." That would explain the abnormal market movement.

Black Blade: I have pointed this pattern out myself on occasion. It is rather thinly veiled isn’t it? Also, notice the large moves in the S&P, DOW, and Nasdaq futures usually right around 5 am (est), especially if they have been in negative territory. Something strange is going on for certain.

Snippit:

Gold was trashed for over nine dollars per ounce today, and according to a Reuters article, was attributed to a stronger dollar. The dollar closed up .23% at 94.02, marginal at best. The dollar strength was not enough to drop gold by that amount. A Bloomberg article stated that the reason gold came down is because, "The recent rally pushed prices so high that jewelry makers will reduce purchases of the metal." WOW, a statement like that really demonstrates a lack of understanding regarding precious metals.

Overall for the day, stocks were up, bonds were up, the dollar was up, and oil was up. The two biggies on the downside were interest rates and gold. Gold should be rising with lower interest rates, so we shall see how long the disconnect persists. There are many financial relationships that are out of whack. Let’s just hope they can engineer an economic recovery with all of the financial tinkering…time will certainly tell!

Black Blade: I noticed the Bloomberg article as well but I thought the explanation to be too absurd to mention. The sell off in gold could be attributable to weak hands getting impatient, however, as Hartman points out and I have pointed this out as well, with negative "real" interest rates the gold currency will ultimately outperform the dollar. The Fed will cut short term rates again by at least 25 basis points and it appears likely it could cut as much as 50 basis points, matching the ECB rate cut. This will send "real" interest rates deeper into negative territory even as the Fed floods the market with infusions of depreciating US dollars.

-END-

Newmont stays in the headlines:

Hi Bill

Know you have written much on the shorting gold shares, but this caught my eye.

Correct my maths, but isn`t that just about half a billion $$ worth of NEM shares that someone has sold but does not own?? In case u missed it:

Tues June 10.

Newmont Mining

Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) is currently the world`s top producer of gold, according to Hoover`s Online. Since late March, NEM has been rallying strongly, gaining almost 35 percent. Today, the stock has pulled back to test support at its 10-day trendline, which has worked in tandem with the 20-day moving average to provide support over the past two months. Spurring the stock`s decline today was a downgrade from J.P. Morgan Chase, who
reduced its rating on the shares to a "neutral" from an "overweight." Merrill Lynch followed suit several hours later, lowering its rating to a "neutral" from a "buy." NEM may find strength in a solid "wall of worry" that has been constructed on the equity. Schaeffer`s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for NEM currently stands at 0.96, two percent shy of an annual peak. What`s more, the number of shorted NEM shares climbed 22 percent over the past reporting period to 15.79 million, the highest level since February 2002.

Click the following link to see the Daily Chart of NEM Since March 2003
With 10-Day and 20-Day Moving Averages:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=7862

For more information on SOIR, short interest, and Expectational Analysis(R), please visit Schaeffer`s Daily Sentiment Complete.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/services/sds/index.asp

Should be fun trying to watch someone cover that in a hurry (unless they trash the gold price to do it of course)!

Catchya,
Rob O.

PS: Newmont Jan04 $45 calls were, as at my last email $0.20, now $0.45

Newmont announcement today:

NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The chief executive of world No. 1 gold miner Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) said Wednesday the company`s controversial Australian gold hedge book had shrunk close to zero after it assumed of most of the unprofitable hedges of its Yandal operations from its bankers.

"You can`t quite say `zero,` but we`re getting close. It`s zero for all intents and purposes, in my mind," said Newmont CEO Wayne Murdy, in response to a question from Reuters after delivering a speech at a conference.

Newmont Mining last week announced a $77 million payout to six of seven counterparties to pay 50 cents on the dollar for the money-losing hedge positions of Newmont Yandal Operations Ltd. (Yandal), acquired in Newmont`s 2002 merger with Normandy Mining and Canada`s Franco-Nevada Corp.

Newmont has maintained an anti-hedging philosophy and has been unwinding and delivering into the Normandy hedges steadily as market conditions allowed.

Hedging with options and forward sales can protect a company from falling gold prices, but the strategy backfired on some producers during the rally in gold prices since early last year. The strength of gold priced in Australian-dollar terms put the Normandy hedges underwater.

Newmont inherited about 10 million ounces of gold sales and derivatives commitments from Normandy.

At the end of the first quarter, Newmont said the Aussie hedge book stood at about 3.7 million ounces committed through forward sales and 1.4 million ounces of noncommitted ounces related to derivatives positions.

Overhedging was disastrous for some mining companies in 1999, when gold prices began to recover from 20-year lows.

Murdy blamed the bankers for overextending credit to mining companies, many of which did not understand the sophisticated financial products or the risk they were assuming.

It is difficult for companies to know how reserves will pan out overtime and foolhardy to hedge prices on estimated production years in the future.

"I think the bullion banks have just gotten carried away and there were deals done on top of deals, super exotic instruments that frankly very few people understand," Murdy said.

"It`s a tool and it can be used to a degree. But when people start going out so far I think they are kidding themselves. I don`t think anybody has the vision to go out 5 years or 10 years," he said.

-END-

Questions to be answered:

*What happened to the holdout in the Yandal settlement proposal by Newmont, reported to be Goldman Sachs?
*How does this transaction affect the gold price?
*Based on this release, the hedges have been covered. However, did the bullion banks buy gold in the physical market to return it to the central banks?

One comment on the Newmont hedge lifting and a query:

The market shrugged off comments from Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM - News) CEO Wayne Murdy that Newmont had reduced its Australian gold hedge book close to zero after its recent buyout of unprofitable contracts from hedge counterparties to its Australian mining subsidiary Newmont Yandal Operations Ltd.

"If anything, that`s got to be pretty bearish ... when they say we`re not going to be buying any more," said another chief precious metals dealer."

Why would this be bearish? Seems pretty positive to me. Ray

Most of the bullion dealer crowd put a bearish spin on everything. The dealer says there was huge buying of hedges to unwind the deal and that buying is over. But, was there any physical gold buying as asked above? More importantly, any gold buying associated with the Yandal hedge covering is only one of MANY MANY bullish gold factors.

Besides, all that matters is the demise of The Gold Cartel. Gold producers covered 649 tonnes from March 31, 2002 until March 31, 2003. That was countered by a 30% rise in BIS gold derivatives. The producers cover and the cabal dumps gold via loans and swaps. Do the bullion dealers explain that to anyone? NO! Therefore, I see no reason to pay attention to them. Which ones predicted this gold price rise two years ago? NONE!

Joe Martin’s gold conference in Vancouver on Sunday and Monday was wonderful fun. It was bustling, although not quite up to January’s frenetic event. Went out with my friends Jeff Dahl (CEO of Samex), Nick Ferris (CEO of J-Pacific Gold) and John Anderson, who knows half the gold folk in Vancouver. Of interest to me is the continued lack of new interest in gold as an investment from the general public. Many of the attendees were those already interested in gold and had been to the conference over the years. That’s bullish. They will show up when gold goes $400 bid.

Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan Chase downgraded Newmont just as it was breaking out. That knocked the wind out of its price surge. That’s typical modus operandi behavior by the cabal and friends. One of their mantras is to diminish gold excitement of any sort. A clear break out by Newmont above $33 will set off bells and whistles in the investment world and attract a good deal of attention. The bad guys know that, so they do what they can to bring in selling of the Newmont shares, right as it looked as if it would take out $33. It’s always something with those bums.

The gold shares caught a late bid and moved up nicely. The HUI surged to 145.74, up 2.05 with the XAU climbing .66 to 76.30. The recent share price action is a reason I don’t trade them. Gold was knocked $20 off its highs, yet many of the gold shares are within a stone’s throw of their highs, or are making new highs.

It appears they are going to lead the way up this round. With the gold fundamentals so extremely bullish, that makes perfect sense.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Hoffentlich ersticken sie mal dran!

[ThaiGuru]

Eine deftige Kurskorrektur droht!

Noch ist der dritte Aufschwung seit dem Platzen der Blase im Frühjahr 2000 im Gang, und die Aktieneuphorie wächst täglich, wobei das Bemerkenswerteste seit drei Monaten der gleichzeitige Anstieg der Aktien und Anleihenkurse ist. Die Aktienkurse steigen, weil die Anleger glauben, die Unternehmensgewinne sind im Begriff zu steigen, und die Anleihenkurse steigen, das heisst die Renditen fallen, weil die Anleger befürchten, eine Rezession steht vor der Tür, ja sogar eine Deflation wird befürchtet. Beide Lager können nicht recht haben. Entweder kommt der von vielen Optimisten vorhergesagten Wirtschaftsaufschwung, dann steigen die langfristigen Zinsen, auch wenn Alan Greenspan angekündigt hat, er kaufe Staatsanleihen, um die langfristigen Zinsen niedrig zu halten, und es gibt Turbulenzen auf den Anleihemärkten. « Wenn Sie berechnen, dass der faire Wert (fair value) für Anleihen zwischen 5 und 5,5% liegt, dann ist der Bondmarkt reif für Gewinnmitnahmen. », erklärt Mike Lenhoff, Chefstratege bei Brewin Dolphin Securities in der Financial Times. Wenn aber die Wirtschaftserholung nicht kommt, dann ist die Gefahr einer Deflation real, und ein Anstieg der Unternehmensgewinne reines Wunschdenken. Dann kommt es zu einem Mini-Crash am Aktienmarkt. « Die amerikanische Notenbank versucht die Blase wieder aufzupumpen », erklärt James Montier, Chefstratege bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Meine Schlussfolgerung ist klar und eindeutig : In Deutschland und einigen anderen europäischen Ländern (Schweiz, Portugal etc.) sind wir bereits in einer Wirtschaftsrezession, da beisst die Maus keinen Faden ab. Gleichzeitig geht die Rezession in Japan weiter, und die USA riskieren grössere Probleme mit der Finanzierung ihres Leistungsbilanzdefizits (inzwischen 6% des BSP).Das heisst, wegen der Furcht vor einem fallenden Dollar gehen auch die Kapitalströme nach Amerika zurück. Da gleichzeitig der US-Staatshaushalt auf ein Rekorddefizit von 400 Milliarden Dollar (rund 4% des BSP) in diesem Jahr zusteuert (nach Schätzungen des Congressional Budget Office), wird es für die USA langsam gefährlich, da Staat, Unternehmen und Haushalte zusammen eine Rekordverschuldung von über 30 Billionen Dollar aufgetürmt haben. Vergessen wir nicht, noch vor drei Jahren wies der amerikanische Staatsetat einen Überschuss von 236 Milliarden Dollar auf. Die Geschwindigkeit, mit der sich heute solch fundamentale Grössen verändern, ist wirklich atemberaubend, und lässt nichts Gutes ahnen.

Wenn es auch schwer fällt, nehmen Sie Ihre Gewinne mit, die Sie in amerikanischen und europäischen Aktien seit dem März dieses Jahres erzielt haben, und die stattlich sein können. (Die « jungen Aktien » aus der Kapitalerhöhung der Allianz haben sich in weniger als 2 Monaten verdoppelt !). Wir sind noch für einige Jahre in einer Seitwärtsbewegung, und da herrschen andere Spielregeln. Also geben Sie Ihrem Herz einen Stoss und verkaufen zumindest Teilpositionen Ihrer Allianz, Münchener Rück, Siemens etc., die hier an dieser Stelle zu erheblich tieferen Kursen empfohlen wurden. Die amerikanische Aktienbewertung ist nach wie vor schwindelerregend hoch (Standard & Poors 500 P/E = 35), und in Europa kann ich mir keine steigenden Börsen vorstellen, wenn wir in Amerika eine starke Kurskorrektur haben. Der Dax hat seit seinem Tiefstpunkt im März dieses Jahres nun fast 45% zugelegt. Er liegt inzwischen über dem Durchschnitt der 200 Tage (3.000), der noch leicht im Fallen begriffen ist. Optimisten bemerken zu Recht, wenn der Dax noch bis Mitte Juli steigt, dann wird aus der fallenden 200-Tageslinie eine steigende, und dies würde ein Kaufsignal auslösen, da die Trendwende « statistisch gesichert » ist .

Vergessen Sie nicht, dass auch in den letzten 30 bzw. 20 Jahren Rentensparpläne eine höhere Rendite abwarfen als Aktiensparpläne. Wie oft haben wir in Werbespots etc. anhören müssen, dass Aktien langfristig besser seien als Anleihen. Das stimmt aber nur, wenn die Betonung auf langfristig liegt, und das bedeutet, wie ich hier öfters dargelegt habe, rund 100 Jahre. Jetzt haben Sie es amtlich : Nach der vor kurzem veröffentlichten Statistik des Bundesverbandes Asset Management (BVI) wird auch der kühnste Aktienoptimist kleinlaut. Der BVI errechnete, dass ein Sparplan in europäischen Aktien auf 30 Jahre eine jährliche Rendite von 6,3% abwarf, während eine in EU-weiten Rentenfonds gesparte Anlage 6,8% jährlich brachte. Noch dramatischer wird es bei einer Periode von 20 Jahren : Da hätte ein Sparplan in europäischen Aktien 4,2% erbracht, der Anleihe-Sparer hätte aber 6,1% p.a. verdient. « Wer zum Ende seines Berufslebens eine reale Minusrendite erwirtschaftet, den tröstet es wenig, dass die Theorie auf lange Frist Recht behält. », meint die FAZ zu dieser Tatsache. Auf jeden Fall sind wir langfristig alle tot, wie der grösste Ökonom des vergangenen Jahrhunderts, Keynes, dazu trocken bemerkte. (Wohlgemerkt sind alle Angaben nominal und nicht real, das heisst nach Abzug der Inflationsraten.)

Vergessen Sie nicht, einen Teil Ihres Wertpapier-Portefeuilles (je nach Temperament 5 bis 10%) in Gold anzulegen. Wie Sie wissen, hat die chinesische Regierung angekündigt, ihre Goldreserven kräftig aufzustocken, ausserdem darf seit Beginn dieses Jahres der chinesische Staatsbürger zum ersten Male seit der kommunistischen Revolution wieder physisches Gold besitzen. China wird in rund 10 Jahren eine Wirtschaftsgrossmacht und wird mit einer eigenen Währung Machtpolitik treiben wollen…

In ein bis zwei Jahren werden wir uns wieder mit der Inflation beschäftigen, sie allein kann das Problem der insolventen Rentensysteme und der hohen Verschuldung « politisch lösen ».

Roland Leuschel

12.06.2003

http://nachrichten.boerse.de/anzeige.php3?id=62914d64

[Der_Glueckliche]

Wie es aussieht hat sich jetzt der Euro vom Gold abgekoppelt!

Schade!

Das kommt von der verdammten Goldpusherei, wie kann Gold steigen, wenn die Spekulanten für eine Menge Gold long gegangen sind, die am physischen Markt in 10 Jahren vielleicht umgesetzt werden!

Marktumsatz physisch/Jahr: ca. 3000 Tonnen = 3Millionen Kilo = 90 Millionen Unzen = 100 Millionen Unzen

Ein Kontrakt sind meines Wissens 1000 Unzen(Bitte korrigieren, wenn es nicht stimmt!!!)

100.000 Kontrakte (Netto Longposition der Spekulanten) sind also 100 Millionen Unzen, also ein Jahresumsatz.

Da ist es doch ein leichtes ein paar Millionen auf den Markt zu werfen und auf diese Weise ein Vielfaches an den Spekulanten zu verdienen.

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Unglückliche

Du schreibst:

"Ein Kontrakt sind meines Wissens 1000 Unzen(Bitte korrigieren, wenn es nicht stimmt!!!"


Das ist aber noch lange nicht alles, was in Deinem Posting nicht stimmt." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Das stimmt ganz sicher nicht!!

Ein Kontrakt entsprechen " nur" 100 Unzen Gold, oder ca. 3 Kilo Gold.

Das ist aber noch lange nicht alles, was in Deinem Posting nicht stimmt.

Ich frage mich wirklich, was Du mit Deinem Posting bezweckst. Komplet falsche Angaben, und Berechnungen über Gold Short Positionen zu verbreiten, bevor Du Dich auch nur annähernd mit den grundlegensten Dingen beim Goldgeschehen beschäftigt hast.

Die Gold Bullion Banken sind laut GATA 15000 - 16000 Tonnen Gold short, das entspricht ca. 6 Jahresgoldproduktionen. Dazu kommen noch die ausgewiesenen Vorwärtsverkäufe der Goldproduzenten, und das seit Jahren anhaltende Gold Produktionsdefizit, in der Höhe von mindestens 1000 Tonnen pro Jahr.

Und Du willst uns anhand von netto Specs Long Positionen, im Umfang von 10 Mio. Unzen beim Gold Futures Papier Gold Handel weissmachen, dass desswegen die Gold Preise nicht steigen können, weil diese Specs Deiner Ansicht den Anstieg der Goldpreise verhindern. Das kannst Du doch nicht wirklich glauben?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

10:14p ET Wednesday, June 11, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A longtime supporter of GATA wrote today in near-
despair at the pounding gold took Tuesday. The
manipulation of the gold market and other markets
is so brazen now, he said, but what can we ever do
to stop the bad guys?

All I could answer was that GATA would continue
to do what it has been doing for four years now,
would continue to try to expose the bad guys and
the bad things they do, to get the attention of the
news media and the political and legal authorities,
and eventually no one will be taking the other side
of the bad guys` trades and the rig will collapse.

Our side`s best technical analyst, Jim Sinclair,
has put it another way: Beat the bums by running
their own trades ahead of them.

Of course few of us are nimble enough to be traders
like that, so we may just have to wish Sinclair the
best in such undertakings as we muddle on trying to
stay true to our principles and world-view.

But good things ARE happening for our side. As you
may have noted from GATA`s dispatch of Tuesday ...

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1538

... Blanchard & Co.`s federal lawsuit against Barrick

Gold and Morgan Chase, picking up where GATA
consultant Reg Howe`s federal lawsuit left off, is
making good progress and has even elicited Barrick`s
confession that it and Morgan Chase are the agents
of the central banks in controlling the gold price.
And this evening GATA learned that today`s edition of
Richard Russell`s Dow Theory Letters (available
only by subscription at http://www.dowtheoryletters.com
distributed the full text of Tuesday`s GATA dispatch
about Barrick`s confession, which had been provided
to Russell by a subscriber to GATA Chairman Bill
Murphy`s Internet site of financial commentary

http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com.

While Dow Theory Letters may not have quite the
reach of the Wall Street Journal or New York Times
-- which, financed so heavily by the Wall Street
financial houses, strive mightily to avoid reporting
what is really happening in the world economy -- it
may be the best-regarded financial newsletter in
the United States, as well as the financial newsletter
with the longest single proprietorship, having been
started by Russell in 1958. Few financial observers
are as respected ... and here he is suddenly spreading
the GATA story to highly placed investors and
financial observers all around the world.

GATA and gold are not in Kansas anymore, even if
we hope to be escorting the market riggers to
Leavenworth.

A few months ago the most successful mutual fund
manager in the world in 2002, John Embry of RBC
Global Investments, now president of Sprott Asset
Management in Toronto, told a national television
audience in Canada that GATA was right about the gold
market and that he had been basing investment
decisions on GATA`s research. Russell has been slower
in acknowledging the manipulation of the gold market,
but his commentaries over the last few months have been
raising the question, and his newsletter`s inclusion
today of Tuesday`s GATA dispatch may be taken as a
bit of an endorsement.

Word IS getting out that the emperor is naked, and
more and more people ARE saying so, or at least
hinting at it. GATA will keep helping them along
no matter how dark things seem.

After all, things have been far darker than they
are now.

On a day of terrible battlefront reverses for
Britain in 1941, the Swedish ambassador asked
Prime Minister Winston Churchill just how he
expected his country to win the war, what with
everything going so badly. In reply Churchill told
a little story:

"Once upon a time there were two frogs, Mr. Optimist
Frog and Mr. Pessimist Frog. One evening the two
frogs hippety-hopped across the meadow, enchanted
by the smell of fresh milk from a dairy. They hopped
through the dairy window and plopped right into a
pail of milk.

"The pail`s sides were too steep. Mr. Pessimist
Frog soon gave up and sank to the bottom. But Mr.
Optimist Frog took courage and began thrashing
around, hoping to get out somehow. He didn`t know
exactly how, but he wasn`t going to give up without
a fight. He churned around all night, and by morning
-- oh joy! -- he was floating on a pat of butter."

After taking a puff on his ever-present cigar,
Churchill concluded simply, "I am Mr. Optimist Frog."

[ThaiGuru]

June 12 - Gold $352.90 down $2.40 - Silver $4.50 unchanged

Can’t Keep A Good Gold Share Down

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The most important political office is that of private citizen." -Louis Brandeis, lawyer, judge, and writer (1856-1941

A boring day. After selling the close yesterday, The Gold Cartel took gold immediately lower and pressed their case during the Comex session today. Efforts to take out $350 failed, however. When a market is broken down and trashed like gold was on Tuesday, it needs to compose itself before going back up again. Gold and silver usually need more composing time than other commodity markets. This may not be one of those times. The specs are bailing out of gold like crazy. The Comex open interest fell another 6794 contracts to 195,587. Think of gold becoming sick on its way down from $370. It is now healing.

Two gold positives:

*The dollar will not rally more than a blip. It gave up all its early gains and closed lower at
92.89, down .13. The euro closed fractionally higher at 117.64.

*The gold shares won’t go down. The XAU finished the day at 76.68, up .38 and the HUI closed at 146.27, up .53. The gold shares are acting as well now as they acted badly the past year. Even with this good price action vis-a-vis bullion, they are still way undervalued. It appears they want to take off at any time. The gold shares resemble a racehorse stomping around before hitting the track. Golden Star Resources led the way for the HUI once more, closing at $2.52, up 7 cents, a new multi-year high.

Morgan Stanley continues to cover its silver shorts, while the funds jump in on the short side. The silver open interest rose 1605 contracts to 80,259, the first increase in some time. That was the funds.

Wonderful quote from Catherine Austin Fitts:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The folks manipulating the gold market and stealing the $3.3 trillion have been moving the deficit financing to the mortgage market for some time -- its part of why they pushed me out-- so they could run the bubble up as much as they did-- so this Freddie leakage is very much connected to the Pillsbury doughboy that GATA is squeezing...."

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, June 12, 2003

Indian ex-duty premium: AM $7.41 (PM N/A) with world gold at $354.40. Very high and highly conducive to legal imports. Standard London remarks of yesterday that there was:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"…good physical demand noted at days lows.",

a development which must have considerably frustrated the Bears.

TOCOM relapsed into near torpor after yesterday’s spectacular action, showing no inclination to follow NY’s recovery. On volume equal to 43,883 Comex contracts, down 67% from Wednesday, the active contract fell 3 yen and $US gold went out at $354.30. Open interest did rise the equivalent of 646 Comex lots. This sudden change of course is so abrupt, and so completely lacks any Japanese cause, as to further raise suspicion that Tuesday and Wednesday`s explosions were caused by foreign activity.

This afternoon Comex reported that US open interest slumped a large 6,794 lots on Wednesday, on modest volume of 36,331 contracts. This means that open interest has fallen 10,582 lots since the level of a week last Tuesday the CFTC report on which so heartened the bears. This particular ammunition source must be close to spent.

Those interested in the latest Frank Veneroso view in this – last Friday’s Conference call – can now listen to it at

http://www.canarc.net/venerosos_corner.asp

(It is 53 minutes long.)

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The long bond will not go down, closing at 123 3/32, up 12. That price action is either portending a rough road ahead for the US economy, or it is a reflection of the Fed/Treasury forcing bond prices higher to keep foreigners from dumping, as they are battered by the dollar`s depreciation Or BOTH!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/63

The DOW (9196, up 13) and the DOG (1653, up 8) won’t go down either. Art Cashin of UBS said on CNBC this is a Bumble Bee market. A Bumble Bee isn’t aeronautically built to fly, but it does. This stock market should not be going up like this, but it is. Cashin should consult with GATA’s Mike Bolser as to what is going on. Speaking of Mike (sent this morning):

Hi Bill:

Yesterday I guessed that there would be a $10 Billion add of repos by the Fed`s open market operations. It was actually $12.5Billion which leaves the repo pool at $34.25 Billion.

Based upon recent empirical observations, this is more than enough to levitate the DOW today. Going forward the view of this metric keeps revealing that the Fed wants the DOW rising for the foreseeable future. Their actions since mid-March have been a steady grind higher to reach and stay above $30Billion in repo pool totals­the apparent level required to keep the DOW going up.

Technical Analysis

Others look to TA or technical analysis to explain this DOW behavior. While true regression analysis is useful in defining trends and linkages, what passes for technical analysis in the major markets of precious metals, petroleum and the large indexes today has fatal flaws in the presence of official intervention. To be fair, TA IS very useful in examining all other financial instruments and commodities markets in which the government has little direct interest.

The core of technical analysis assumes, according to Prechter and Elliott, that there are two and only two forces acting on markets­greed and fear. This core belief is wrong as there clearly is a third force: government. The sheer size of the official sector dominates all other individual market elements. Moreover, government interventions are by definition unpredictable since they are instituted by a select group for varying reasons. Sometimes they want the market(s) to go up some times down. It is this third force of government that wrecks technical analysis. Concepts of "overbought" and "oversold" or "breakouts" are overwhelmed by the intentions of interventionists.

But the interventionists, like Achilles, have their limits. The market always has a way of eventually finding the true market price­the vulnerable "heel". In the case of oil there is a limited supply at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [SPR] with which to sell forward using derivatives. That supply, when the SPR is full, is about 57 days. Should there be a total
interruption of oil to the US we have 57 days until exhaustion and resultant skyrocketing oil prices. A universe full of paper derivatives can`t change that fact.

In the gold market, the government has bullion to sell and this interferes with normally useful TA chart patterns. What should be a far higher gold price, given market fundamentals, butts up against the government`s latest retreat point­$370 gold. BTW there`s more to the $370 price point than meets the eye when one factors in the falling dollar­but that discussion is for another day.
Mike

Chuck checks in:

They can`t get enough of them. Quite a phenomenon! Buying panic after panic, but when the croupier gives you the cash and it`s free, why not? How impressive are the gold shares here? Another gap down and then a rally with no help from the metal. They still don`t get it.
If the FRE isn`t the event, what will be? Maybe you should hold a lottery to guess what the big event will be to stop the flooding of monopoly money into this market. We should be near lift off here. Need to get GG and some of the others going with NEM and FCX.

Chuck

This Richard Russell commentary was too good to leave out:

June 11, 2003 -- It`s been said that on a deep level, life is a tragedy, but on a surface level life is a comedy. Believe it.

Are you ready for some comedy? Yes? OK, l let the show begin. A new monthly analysis of Treasury data estimates that the US will show a $291 billion deficit for the first eight months of the fiscal year, which runs through Sept. 31. This is DOUBLE the $145 billion shortfall for the same period a year ago, and $1 billion more that previous record for an ENTIRE budget year. I guess that could be called comical or maybe just surreal.

More comedy -- Federal receipts are down by $60 billion or 4.9% from a year ago, with the largest decline in individual tax returns. But federal spending is up by 6% or $86 billion, largely because of the expenses of military, Social Security and Medicare.

Want some more comedy? Here we go --

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Almost every state in the union is dealing with budget problems. And they are resorting to gimmicks, gimmicks and more gimmicks. Said Michael Granof, a University Texas public finance expert, "I tell my students, this is a great time to be studying governmental accounting, because the bigger the fiscal problem, the more they resort to gimmicks.

"I compare it to Enron`s accounting because Enron by and large didn`t violate generally accepted accounting principles. It was just extremely aggressive. That`s what the states are doing. They`re pushing the envelope. These gimmicks are basically off-the-balance-sheet debt. It`s what Enron did."


Russell opinion -- If Arnold runs, he`ll win. They love him here in the West…….." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">More comedy, courtesy of the Golden State. California is struggling with a mind-blowing deficit of over $30 billion, Our goofy governor, Gray Davis, could be recalled by Halloween. And one of the governor`s possible foes won`t decide whether to run until after the release of his summer blockbuster. Who is the Governor`s foe? Hold your hat, it`s none other than Arnold "the Terminator" Schwarzenegger, now being named "Conan, the Republican" by the state`s press.

Russell opinion -- If Arnold runs, he`ll win. They love him here in the West……..

Question -- Should I buy gold coins or gold shares?

Answer -- Both. Gold coins are the real deal -- pure money. If possible, you should take possession of the coins, hide `em, hold `em, bury them, do whatever you have to do to take possession of the coins.

Gold shares have the potential for leverage. As the price of gold rises, the mines make more money, but since their costs remains roughly the same, the rising price of their product exerts great leverage on their earnings. Nevertheless, owning a share of mining stock is still a piece of paper saying that you are a part-owner in a corporation that mines gold. That ain`t the same as holding the end product in your sweating palm.

-END-

Treasury Secretary Snow on transparency:

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary John Snow said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage buyers, need more oversight after the ouster of the top three executives of Freddie Mac amid an accounting restatement.

Freddie Mac is the subject of criminal and securities probes after it fired President David Glenn for altering notes given to internal investigators. Shares of McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac and larger rival Fannie Mae have fallen this week on concern the investigations will lead to increased regulation and higher capital requirements that would reduce earnings.

``These are huge entities making huge markets, so we better make sure we have the appropriate level of oversight and disclosure,`` Snow told reporters traveling with him in Mexico City. ``The real answer here is to move towards greater disclosure and greater transparency and probably more effective oversight.`` –END-

Fair enough Snow. How about doing the same with America’s gold and your intervention in the gold market.

Derek Vanartsdalen:

Hi Bill,

From my calculations, the 50% retracement move in gold is just about finished. The 50% level is around $347 to $348 or so, and we should see that today or tomorrow. My gut feeling is, it won`t be long before the next big leg up. There`s no doubt that the gold/silver stocks are showing unprecedented relative strength to the price of gold these days, a phenomenon we haven`t seen in this particular young bull market until now.

The magical Dow mystery tour is probably nearing its peak, and I believe a lot of general equity investors are going to have their heads handed to them on a "golden" platter. But hey, that`s what happens when you buy high and sell low.

Don`t forget that after our recent double-digit decline in the price of gold, we`re now due for a move up of at least 27%, if the pattern from the late seventies holds up. That, of course, would take us north of $400...

Keep up the great work!
Best wishes,
Derek

Good news for J-Pacific Gold, who has properties that butts up against Placer’s big discovery:

TORONTO, June 11 (Reuters) - Placer Dome Inc. (CA:PDG) doubled resource estimates for its new Cortez Hills gold find on Wednesday and said the deposit was proving to be one of the most significant discoveries in gold-rich Nevada in recent years.

Placer, a major Canadian gold producer, said it boosted the measured and indicated mineral resource estimate for Cortez Hills after weeks of more drilling to 4.5 million ounces from 2.1 million ounces. Inferred resources have increased to 1 million ounces from 900,000 ounces.

A resource is a body of mineralization in the ground, while the next stage is identifying reserves, which is the part of the resource that can be economically mined.

The discovery of Cortez Hills was announced on April 29, 2003, following months of speculation in equity markets of a promising gold find by Placer Dome in Nevada.

The deposit is in the northeast of the U.S. state, on the same 260,000-hectare (642,000-acre) Cortez land package that Placer and its joint-venture partner Kennecott Explorations (Australia) Ltd. have long mined, near the town of Elko. –END-


Dave Lewis

Bill

Well, it shouldn`t be too much longer before faith in the second half recovery starts to deflate. Despite a spectacular advance in the equity indices since the March lows, the seasonally adjusted level of retail sales is some $800M less than March. The last gasp would seem to be the effect of the checks from Treasury. Failing a bounce from that lever, quite an unlikely event with unemployment rising, the boys will have to begin debasing in earnest.

The powers that be, as noted by Jim Sinclair, are reaching the zero point bound on interest rates and the recent expressions of fear by the ECB and BOJ about US$ weakness means rebalancing within the confines of the current system of exchange rates is a no go. The next step is a direct devaluation against Gold, which ought to kick off a more serious inflation. That thing you hear flying by your head is the kitchen sink, the fat lady is putting on her tights. Hang tough, a failure to generate an increase in volume demand this summer should get them thinking about Gold.

regards

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com

That’s what the gold share price action seems to be telling us, Dave. It was hard for me to imagine the "10+" gold fundamentals getting much better, but it looks like they will.

HUI:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"What an exciting time to be long the gold shares. That historic, once in a lifetime, investment opportunity is kicking in. Right now. At some point this summer, our long awaited gold share buying panic should erupt too. Stocks trading at a penny a clip will run a dime or a quarter higher at a pop. Excitement will be in the air and fortunes will be made."

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Würde mal zugerne von einem Wirtschaftsredaktor einer UNABHAENGIGEN Zeitung in Deutschland (falls es das noch geben sollte?) eine Analyse zum Gold Chart von vorgestern, gestern, und heute lesen!

Oder wagt sich da wirklich noch niemand dran?

[niemandweiss]

Freund Thai, was sagst du denn dazu ?
Gruß von "ex und hopp"
http://www.goldseiten.de/ansichten/bandulet-05.htm
Das Gold der Deutschen

Die Leihgeschäfte der Bundesbank
Die offiziellen deutschen Goldreserven, knapp 3500 Tonnen im Gegenwert von gut 35 Milliarden Euro, sind ein Schatz mit vielen Attributen: Lohn und Symbol des Wirtschaftswunders unter Ludwig Erhard; eiserne Reserve Deutschlands für den Fall, daß der Euro scheitert; Objekt der Begierde für sozialistische Politiker; möglicher Schlüsselfaktor für den Goldmarkt nach 2004; und nicht zuletzt ein partielles Staatsgeheimnis, das von Bundesregierung und Bundesbank gleichermaßen hartnäckig verteidigt wird.

Letzteres mußte auch der CDU-Bundestagsabgeordnete Martin Hohmann erfahren, als er im August 2002 eine Reihe von Fragen an die Parlamentarische Staatssekretärin im Bundesfinanzministerium, Dr. Barbara Hendricks, richtete. Am 1. Oktober 2002 antwortete die Staatssekretärin, sagte aber nur das, was ohnehin öffentlich bekannt war. Den heiklen Fragen wich sie aus, oder sie gab irreführende Antworten. Dabei müßte Berlin eigentlich genau wissen, was in Frankfurt vor sich geht, denn das Grundkapital der Deutschen Bundesbank gehört allein dem Bund.

Korrekt war die Auskunft, daß sich der physische Goldbestand der Notenbank Ende Juli 2002 auf 110,8 Millionen Unzen Feingold oder 3446 Tonnen belief. Ende 1998 waren es noch 3701 Tonnen gewesen, wovon 232 Tonnen in der ersten Januarwoche 1999 an die Europäische Zentralbank übertragen wurden. (Diese 232 Tonnen stehen seitdem als Forderung in den Büchern der Bundesbank, seltsamerweise aber als Forderung in Euro.) Außerdem flossen bis 2002 kleinere Mengen ab, die zur Prägung von DM- und Euro-Goldmünzen verwendet wurden.

Soweit geht alles mit rechten Dingen zu. Was hingegen im dunkeln bleibt, ist 1) wieviel genau vom deutschen Gold verliehen ist und 2) wo die Reserven liegen.

Zu Punkt 1 antwortete Dr. Hendricks am 22. August 2002: "Von diesem Gesamtbestand (von 3446 Tonnen) wird ein sehr geringer Teil im einstelligen Prozentbereich im Goldleihegeschäft eingesetzt. Das genaue Volumen kann von der Deutschen Bundesbank aus geschäftspolitischen Gründen nicht veröffentlicht werden."

Eine seltsame Begründung. Warum sollte es der Geschäftspolitik der Bundesbank schaden, wenn sie diese Angaben macht? Nicht nur das: würde die Bundesbank ebenso sorgfältig bilanzieren wie jede normale Aktiengesellschaft, dann müßte se selbstverständlich zwischen Gold als Eigentum und Goldforderungen unterscheiden und dies auch korrekt publizieren.

Was mir meinen, zeigt ein Vergleich älterer und neuerer Bundesbankbilanzen. Noch zum 31. Dezember 1998 stand an erster Stelle der Aktiva der Posten mit der Bezeichnung "Gold" mit einem Gegenwert von 17,1 Milliarden Mark. Das waren die bereits erwähnten 3701 Tonnen, die damals noch zu den Anschaffungskosten von ca. 144 DM pro Feinunze bewertet wurden. Dieses Gold war der einzige nennenswerte Posten in der Bilanz, der keine Forderungen an Dritte darstellte und somit auch nicht notleidend werden konnte. Gold kann bekanntlich nie pleite gehen.

Ganz anders die letzte uns vorliegende Bilanz, die zum 31. Dezember 2001. Jetzt nennt sich der erste Posten auf der Aktivseite nicht mehr "Gold", sondern "Gold und Goldforderungen". Hier werden zwei Positionen, die nicht im geringsten identisch sind, miteinander vermengt. Keine Aktiengesellschaft würde mit diesem Trick durchkommen. Denn Goldforderungen haben eine ganz andere Qualität als Goldeigentum. Manchmal sogar bekommt man das verliehene Gold nicht zurück. Genau dies wiederfuhr vor vielen Jahren den Notenbanken Portugals und Polens, als deren Vertragspartner, das US-Haus Drexel, in Konkurs ging.

Der Verdacht liegt nahe, daß die Bundesbank mit dieser seltsamen Bilanzierungsmethode etwas verbergen will. Aber was? Erstens die Höhe der Ausleihungen, zweitens den Zeitpunkt. Wenn man beides wüßte, könnte man Rückschlüsse darauf ziehen, ob sich die Bundesbank an einem amerikanischen Komplott beteiligt hat: an dem Komplott, den Goldpreis tief zu halten, indem der Markt jahrelang mit Leihgold überschwemmt wurde.

Entsprechende Gerüchte kursieren seit langem in den USA. Es wurde auch der Verdacht geäußert, Washington hätte auf deutsches Gold zurückgegriffen, um damit am Markt zu intervenieren. Tatsächlich gibt es gravierende Ungereimtheiten in den offiziellen amerikanischen Goldstatistiken. Die Bundesbank selbst hat mit ihrer Geheimniskrämerei die Gerüchteküche angeheizt.

Die Auskunft der Staatssekretärin, wonach im einstelligen Bereich verliehen wurde (also zwischen 1% und 9%), ist jedenfalls extrem vage. Frankfurter Goldhändler, mit denen G&M sprach, tippen seit langem auf etwa 10%. Mit dieser Menge kann man am Goldmarkt schon etwas bewegen. Völlig ins Schwimmen geriet Dr. Hendricks aber erst, als Hohmann wissen wollte, wo die deutschen Goldreserven genau liegen.



Berlin verheimlicht, wo die Reserven liegen

Als der CDU-Bundestagsabgeordnete Martin Hohmann von der Bundesregierung wissen wollte, wo sich das Gold der Bundesbank befindet, erhielt er am 22. August 2002 folgende Antwort:

"Die Deutsche Bundesbank hält einen großen Teil ihrer Goldbestände in eigenen Tresoren im Inland. Sie läßt allerdings auch Goldbestände an wichtigen Goldhandelsplätzen wie z.B. London von den dort ansässigen Zentralbanken, z.B. die Bank of England, verwahren. Dies hat sich historisch und marktbedingt so ergeben, weil die Deutsche Bundesbank das Gold an diesen Handelsplätzen übertragen bekam. Es macht aber auch aus betriebswirtschaftlichen Gründen Sinn, solange die Lagerung dort kostengünstiger ist als der Transport nach Deutschland und der Bau zusätzlicher Tresoranlagen."

Eine Antwort, von der im wesentlichen nichts stimmt. Alle Insider, mit denen G&M sprach, haben keinen Zweifel daran, daß der allergrößte Teil der deutschen Goldreserven in den USA liegt. Und zwar nicht in Fort Knox, wie oft kolportiert wird, sondern im Keller der Federal Reserve Bank in New York, also unter dem Straßenpflaster von Manhattan. Wenn wirklich ein "großer Teil" des deutschen Goldes in inländischen Tresoren läge, wie Dr. Hendricks behauptet, dann wäre dies eine, bisher unbemerkte, Sensation.

Offiziell hat die Bundesbank zur Lagerung des Goldes nie Angaben gemacht. Sie hat freilich einmal aus dem Nähkästchen geplaudert, und zwar gegenüber David Marsh, der von 1986 bis 1991 die ein-flußreichste Wirtschaftszeitung Europas, die Financial Times, in Deutschland als Korrespondent vertrat. Daß Marsh immer eine Vorzugsbehandlung genoß, erklärt sich daraus, daß die Bundesbank bei der Pflege ihres Mythos auf niemanden mehr angewiesen war als auf ausländische Blätter vom Kaliber der Financial Times.

1992 veröffentlichte Marsh sein Buch "Die Bundesbank - Geschäfte mit der Macht", bis heute ein Standardwerk. Auf Seite 82 erfahren wir folgendes über die damaligen 3701 Tonnen bzw. knapp 300 000 Barren à 12,5 kg: "Unter den führenden Zentralbanken mit Goldbesitz ist die Bundesbank die einzige, die nur einen kleinen Teil ihrer Goldbarren auf eigenem Gelände aufbewahrt. In den Tresorräumen in Frankfurt liegen nur etwa 80 Tonnen, d.h. knapp über 2% des Gesamtgoldes. Der Rest ist auf die Tresore anderer Zentralbanken, der Federal Reserve Bank in New York, der Bank of England und zu einem kleineren Teil auch der Banque de France verteilt."

Marsh findet es bemerkenswert, daß die Bundesbank als "einzige" der führenden Zentralbanken so verfährt. Das ist es in der Tat. Weder die USA noch Frankreich noch England kämen auf die Idee, ihr Gold in Deutschland zu bunkern. Schon die Idee ist widersinnig, denn der einzigartige Vorzug des Goldes besteht ja darin, daß es keine Forderung an Dritte darstellt. Diesen Vorteil kann es aber nur voll ausspielen, wenn man es zuhause hat. Devisenreserven hingegen, einer der anderen großen Aktivposten in der Bundesbankbilanz, können im Kriegs- oder Krisenfall jederzeit gesperrt und im übrigen nach Belieben abgewertet werden. Deswegen sind die Barren im eigenen Keller durch nichts zu ersetzen.

David Marsh mutmaßte denn auch, die Bundesbank könne nach der Wiedervereinigung "mit gutem Grund darauf pochen, zumindest einen Teil des Goldes nach Frankfurt zu holen". Ihm schwante aber schon 1992, daß die Deutschen dies nicht wagen würden. "Im Interesse guter Beziehungen zur internationalen Finanzwelt werden die großen Mengen von Goldbarren wahrscheinlich bleiben, wo sie sind."

An dieser Stelle verschwimmt die Diktion des Autors Marsh. Denn tangiert waren natürlich nicht die Beziehungen zur "internationalen Finanzwelt" (was ist das eigentlich?), sondern ganz konkret diejenigen zu den USA. Marsh wollte wohl sagen, daß die USA gegen die Rückkehr des Goldes etwas einzuwenden hätten und daß sich die Bundesbank den amerikanischen Wünschen fügen würde.

Da kommt natürlich ein Verdacht auf. Warum legen die USA so großen Wert darauf, die deutschen Goldreserven bei sich zu haben? Ein exzellenter Kenner der Verhältnisse und früheres Mitglied der Bundesregierung meinte gegenüber G&M: "Die Amerikaner betrachten das deutsche Gold als eine Art Pfand." Er hätte auch sagen können: als eine Art Geisel für deutsches Wohlverhalten.

Ein heikles Thema, dem der Bundesbankkenner Marsh elegant auswich. Zum Verständnis des Ganzen müssen wir zurückblenden auf das Wirtschaftswunder der fünfziger und sechziger Jahre, auf die Exportüberschüsse, die sich damals in Gold verwandelten, auf die Besatzungskosten - und vor allem auf den berühmt-berüchtigten "Blessing-Brief", der nie veröffentlicht wurde, mit dem aber jeder intime Kenner der Frankfurter Szene vertraut ist.



New York ist der falsche Platz

Theoretisch war die Reichsmark, was wenig bekannt ist, bis zu ihrem Ende 1948 durch Gold gedeckt. Theoretisch, weil sich die einmarschierenden Amerikaner 1945 des Reichsbankgoldes bemächtigt hatten. Die D-Mark-Eröffnungsbilanz zum 21. Juni 1948 wies denn auch kein einziges Gramm Gold auf. Aber schon Ende 1958 konnte die erst ein Jahr zuvor gegründete Bundesbank eine Goldreserve im Wert von 11,1 Milliarden Mark melden! Dieses Gold war dank der hohen Exportüberschüsse im Rahmen der Europäischen Zahlungsunion (EZU) nach Deutschland geflossen.

Dazu muß man wissen, daß Außenhandelsüberschüsse in der 1949 gegründeten EZU zu über 50% in Gold und Devisen beglichen wurden. Der Rest wurde als Kredit stehengelassen und kam den Ländern zugute, die Defizite hatten (anfangs war das Deutschland, später Frankreich). Die EZU war nichts anderes als ein Verrechnungs- und Beistandskreditsystem. 1958, als 14 westeuropäische Länder die Konvertibilität ihrer Währungen einführten, wurde sie überflüssig. Nach Mitte der sechziger Jahre wurden die deutschen Goldreserven nicht mehr wesentlich erhöht.

Wichtig ist, daß der größere Teil der heutigen deutschen Goldreserven vor der Gründung der Bun-desbank angehäuft wurde. Ihr Vorläufer war die Bank deutscher Länder, deren Grundkapital vollständig im Besitz der elf Landeszentralbanken war. Das sollten z.B. die Ministerpräsidenten Stoiber und Koch wissen für den Fall, daß sich Eichel am Gold vergreifen will.

Zurück zu Karl Blessing, der von 1958 bis Anfang 1970 der Bundesbank vorstand. Zwischen ihm und der Bundesregierung existierte ein geheimes Verwaltungsabkommen, wonach die Bundesbank bei gewissen Kabinettssitzungen hinzugezogen wurde. Besonders gefragt war die Kooperation zwischen Frankfurt und Bonn, als Gold wieder einmal in den Mittelpunkt der Währungspolitik rückte und als die US-Regierung Ende der sechziger Jahre einen neuen finanziellen Ausgleich für ihre Stationierungskosten in Deutschland verlangte.

Bonn war zahlungsunwillig, Resultat des amerikanischen Drucks war der bereits erwähnte Blessing-Brief. Darin sicherte der Bundesbankpräsident seinem Gegenüber bei der Federal Reserve die "Immobilisierung" der deutschen Goldreserven zu. Er versprach, daß die Bundesbank die Reserven nicht aus den USA abziehen werde, solange die USA Stützpunkte in Deutschland unterhalten. Dies eine Konzession, auf die die Amerikaner allergrößten Wert legten.

Zum Hintergrund des "Blessing-Briefes" gehört auch, daß Frankreich unter de Gaulle die Dollar-Hegemonie offen herausforderte und tonnenweise Gold von New York nach Paris überführen ließ. Washington befürchtete zeitweise, die Deutschen könnten ebenso verfahren. In diesem Zusammenhang kam auch ein dezenter Hinweis aus Washington, daß Bonn doch am Verbleib amerikanischer Truppen in Westberlin interessiert sein müßte.

Was in den letzten Jahren mit dem deutschen Gold passiert ist, konnte G&M trotz intensiver Recherchen nicht definitiv herausfinden. Auch im Goldhandel kursieren verschiedene Nachrichten und Gerüchte:


• In Frankfurt erfuhr G&M, daß die Bundesbank einen neuen Tresorraum gebaut hat. Dort könnte sie bei Bedarf mehr Gold als bisher einlagern.
• Offenbar hat die Bundesbank erheblich mehr als die oft zitierten 10% ihrer Reserven ausgeliehen. Nach G&M-Schätzungen sind es eher 20%, also rund 600 Tonnen.
• Die Bundesbank ist nach Informationen aus einer zuverlässigen Quelle nicht frei in ihrer Entscheidung, wann sie wieviel Gold ausleiht. Gesteuert werden die Leihgeschäfte von der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich in Basel. Dort hat der amerikanische Einfluß stark zugenommen.
• Ein früheres Mitglied des Zentralbankrates meinte gegenüber G&M, die Bundesbank könne ihr Gold allenfalls unter einem Vorwand und nur in kleinen Mengen aus New York abziehen - alles andere werde als Mißtrauensbekundung aufgefaßt. (Er selbst hatte einmal Gelegenheit, die bei der Federal Reserve in Manhattan liegenden deutschen Goldbarren zu besichtigen.)
• Der amerikanische Goldexperte James Turk behauptete gegenüber G&M, die Bundesbank habe bereits 1700 Tonnen Gold, also ungefähr die Hälfte ihrer Reserven, auf amerikanischen Wunsch hin ausgeliehen. Turk ist ein seriöser Marktkenner.

Wie auch immer, in New York liegen die Goldbarren bis heute. Sie lagen dort auch, als am 11. September 2001 der Terroranschlag gegen das World Trade Center die Welt erschütterte. Ein Jahr später zitierte die Neue Zürcher Zeitung den legendären amerikanischen Investor und Milliardär Warren Buffett mit der Prognose, daß es binnen zehn Jahren zum ersten Terroranschlag mit Atomwaffen auf amerikanischem Boden kommen werde.

Würde die Bombe in New York gezündet, dann wären die dort lagernden Goldreserven verstrahlt und wertlos. Mehr noch: weltweit würden die Banken schließen, der Dollar würde kollabieren - und mit ihm leider auch die Devisenreserven der Bundesbank, die zu 99% (!) in Dollar angelegt sind. Die in Deutschland zirkulierende Währung wäre dann weitgehend ihrer "Deckung" beraubt. Genau dies wäre der Tag, an dem die Bundesbank ihr Gold bräuchte. Nur liegt es dann leider am falschen Platz.

Man kann nur hoffen, daß sich ein solcher Terroranschlag nie ereignet. Aber entbindet dies die Bundesbank von der Pflicht, das ihr anvertraute Volksvermögen mit der größtmöglichen Vorsicht zu verwalten und vorstellbare Risiken nach Möglichkeit auszuschließen? Anders gefragt Würde ein sicherheitsbewußter Privatinvestor sein Gold in New York lagern, wo es doch genug Alternativen dazu gibt? Mit Sicherheit nicht. Warum tut es dann die Bundesbank?

Eine ganz andere Frage ist, ob die Bundesbank nach 2004, wenn das Goldabkommen der europäischen Zentralbanken ausgelaufen ist, selbst als Verkäufer auftritt. Im Monatsbericht Januar 2003 schrieb sie, die deutschen Goldbestände könnten nach 2004 "nur ganz allmählich" reduziert werden. Jedenfalls müssen wir uns darauf einrichten, daß die Goldpolitik der Bundesbank - vielleicht ab dem Winter 2003/2004 - zu einem wichtigen Thema am Markt werden wird.



Dr. Bruno Bandulet

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

Danke für diesen Beitrag von Dr. Bruno Bandulet, mann kann solche Beiträge nicht genügende Male posten. Es sollten sich viel mehr Leute einmal etwas engagieren, und klare Fragen nach dem Verbleib des deutschen Staatsvermögen GOLD bei der Presse und den lokalen, oder regionalen Politikern, gleich welcher politischer Couleur, stellen.

Das Bandulet sowas wichtiges geschrieben hat, dafür gehört ihm meine Anerkennung und mein Dank, auch wenn`s bis jetzt leider noch nicht sehr viel geholfen hat, die wirklichen Vorgänge bei den Goldverleihungen, und den gegesätzlichen Aussagen zu den Lagerungsorten aufzuklären, und Licht ins Dunkle zu bringen.

Dass sich Deutschland "sein" Gold von ausländischen privaten Institutionen, wie der Bank of England, oder FED aufbewahren lässt, ist ja schon eine Leichtsinnigkeit sondergleichen, und hat ganz bestimmt mit Kostengründen, reichlich wenig zu tun. Dass sich das deutsche Gold zu einem erheblichen Teil, immer noch unter der "Obhut" der WKII Siegermacht USA befindet, ist nicht nur ein Zeichen von Ohnmacht, sondern zeugt vielmehr davon, dass Deutschland 58 Jahre nach dem Ende des Krieges immer noch keine echte Freiheit, und Selbstbestimmung geniesst, zumindest, wenn`s um Finanzen (Gold) geht.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">PS: Falls hier Studenten mitlesen, wie wärs mal mit einer Doktorarbeit über die Vergangenheit, und den Verbleib der "deutschen?" Goldreserven?

[Wardriver]

Kommt jetzt wieder dieses Verschwörungs-Zeug

Der Staat braucht Geld,also weg mit dem Gold.

Wardriver

[niemandweiss]

Danke Thaiguru

Scheint wirklich, daß über die ganzen Hintergründe allgemein wenig Interesse besteht. Es zählt halt reine Spekulation, Gewinne zu machen.

Man könnte sich natürlich über jeden einzelnen Absatz dieses Berichtes bzw. deren Konsequenzen unterhalten. Aber dein letzter Absatz wird in dem fettgedruckten Absatz klar zum Ausdruck gebracht.

-----

Marsh findet es bemerkenswert, daß die Bundesbank als "einzige" der führenden Zentralbanken so verfährt. Das ist es in der Tat. Weder die USA noch Frankreich noch England kämen auf die Idee, ihr Gold in Deutschland zu bunkern. Schon die Idee ist widersinnig, denn der einzigartige Vorzug des Goldes besteht ja darin, daß es keine Forderung an Dritte darstellt. Diesen Vorteil kann es aber nur voll ausspielen, wenn man es zuhause hat. Devisenreserven hingegen, einer der anderen großen Aktivposten in der Bundesbankbilanz, können im Kriegs- oder Krisenfall jederzeit gesperrt und im übrigen nach Belieben abgewertet werden. Deswegen sind die Barren im eigenen Keller durch nichts zu ersetzen.

David Marsh mutmaßte denn auch, die Bundesbank könne nach der Wiedervereinigung "mit gutem Grund darauf pochen, zumindest einen Teil des Goldes nach Frankfurt zu holen". Ihm schwante aber schon 1992, daß die Deutschen dies nicht wagen würden. "Im Interesse guter Beziehungen zur internationalen Finanzwelt werden die großen Mengen von Goldbarren wahrscheinlich bleiben, wo sie sind."

An dieser Stelle verschwimmt die Diktion des Autors Marsh. Denn tangiert waren natürlich nicht die Beziehungen zur "internationalen Finanzwelt" (was ist das eigentlich?), sondern ganz konkret diejenigen zu den USA. Marsh wollte wohl sagen, daß die USA gegen die Rückkehr des Goldes etwas einzuwenden hätten und daß sich die Bundesbank den amerikanischen Wünschen fügen würde.



Da kommt natürlich ein Verdacht auf. Warum legen die USA so großen Wert darauf, die deutschen Goldreserven bei sich zu haben? Ein exzellenter Kenner der Verhältnisse und früheres Mitglied der Bundesregierung meinte gegenüber G&M: "Die Amerikaner betrachten das deutsche Gold als eine Art Pfand." Er hätte auch sagen können: als eine Art Geisel für deutsches Wohlverhalten.

[erdede]

..und wieder gehts los.... leider kann man sich nur auf die CABAL verlassen

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/6/13/bus…



Friday, June 13, 2003

Gold dinar can help Third World nations

THE proposed use of gold dinar as an alternative medium of exchange for international trade could benefit Third World countries, the Malaysian Islamic Chamber of Commerce (Kuala Lumpur branch) chairman Tan Sri Elyas Omar said.

“I believe the gold dinar can be used as an instrument for international trade,” he said at a press conference on International Convention on Gold Dinar in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

“When international trade is stable and export rate stabilises, the Third World countries, especially those in the Asean region, could gain from this stability,” he said.

The chamber would hold the one-day convention on the use of gold dinar at the Putra World Trade Centre on July 1. – Bernama

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4671188&act…

(AFX-Focus) 2003-06-13 15:21 GMT: Gold futures slip; metals shares mixed

August gold is traded little changed at $353.40 an ounce, down 50 cents amid fresh weakness in the dollar and broader equity market. Metals shares traded in a narrow range, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index up 0.3 percent. Shares of Anglogold are up 1 percent at $30.78, but shares of Freeport-McMoran Copper and Gold are down 0.9 percent at $23.42. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see

http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com

[ThaiGuru]

Die EZB halbiert die Wachstumsaussichten für die Eurozone!

Wollte Euch diese neue Meldung der EZB eigentlich in deutscher Sprache servieren, doch sie ist auf der Home Page der EZB noch gar nicht erschienen. Bei Reuters Deutschland habe ich auch noch keine Nachricht dazu vorgefunden.

Also darum wieder einmal mehr eine wichtige Meldung zur europäischen Wirtschaftslage in englischer Sprach, und das erst noch schneller als bei Reuters Deutschland, aus Asien.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/economicnews/view/421…

First created :
13 June 2003 1146 hrs (SST) 0346 hrs (GMT)
Last modified :
13 June 2003 1146 hrs (SST) 0346 hrs (GMT)

ECB halves 2003 eurozone growth forecast to 0.7%

The European Central Bank has halved its growth forecast for the eurozone this year to just 0.7%.

Growth next year has also been also cut to 1.6% from a previous estimate for 2.4%.



With inflation expected to slow steadily in coming months, the ECB now has both the need and the justification to lower interest rates as early as September, economists said.

Just a week after the bank cut its refinancing rate by a half-point to 2%, President Wim Duisenberg said Thursday its maneuvering room still hadn`t been exhausted.

The gloom seems well founded - the region`s biggest economies have both reported falls in industrial production this week.

In France it slumped 0.8% on a monthly basis in April, official data on Thursday revealed.

That`s much weaker than the unchanged reading economists had expected.

A day earlier Germany reported a 1% slide in industrial output.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/jimmy/130603ny…

Poor US data boosts metals - New York Bullion Report

13th June 2003

Light selling pressure has again been the theme over the European and early New York session as pockets of long liquidation continue to be seen, but a fall in Consumer confidence this month put stop to a strong Dollar/equity market and helped gold bounce from $351. Gold dipped to a fresh 4-week low yesterday as fresh speculative selling was prompted by steady gains in the Dow and a rally in the Dollar which triggered the dip to $351.00 before good trade buying emerged, helping the yellow metal close at $353. Overnight activity has been slow in comparison with a quiet Dollar keeping gold confined to a tight $1 range. With speculation mounting that the Fed will cut interest rates after Alan Greenspan declared his concern about "corrosive deflation`` and the increasing gains being seen in the US equity market as the Dow climbs to its highest level in 11-months, gold is likely to remain in a volatile state. Short-term nervousness is likely to see a test of support around the 100-day moving average at $348.80, with the possibility of a dip to $342 if breached, whilst the economic uncertainties are likely to benefit gold longer-term with a test of $400 still an attainable prospect.

Silver has put an end of week display on as the industrial metal has climbed to the top end of the recent range as steady buying interest makes a test of the $4.55 resistance. Silver was confined to a narrow range yesterday, trading between $4.48-51 while the industrial metal has been virtually untraded overnight. Silver still remains robust though as the recent weakness in gold has failed to have an impact on the current $4.40-55 range. Resistance is likely to be strong between $4.55 and the 400 and 200 day moving averages at $4.58 and $4.59 respectively but with the market still playing from the short side some short covering could start to emerge, giving the market the potential to reach the area $4.65-70.

Platinum still remains comfortable trading $640-60 but the steady easing of lease rates and continued fall in jewellery/physical demand from Asia as a result of the SARS virus are likely to see a fall back towards $620. Palladium still looks a little overvalued with the metals poor fundamentals likely to prompt a move back towards $130-40

James Moore
TheBullionDesk.com

Tel [phone]
[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Die Mainstream Presse befasst sich jetzt endlich auch mit der Goldpreis Manipulation!

Wie lange dauert es eigentlich noch, bis sich die etablierte deutsche Presse mit diesem höchst interessanten Thema "Gold Preis Manipulation" befasst

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.insightmag.com/news/439175.html



Gold Bugs Get Their Answer

Posted June 12, 2003

By Kelly Patricia O Meara

More than a year ago, Blanchard & Co. of New Orleans, the nation`s largest retailer of precious-metal coins, filed a lawsuit against J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and a Canadian mining corporation, Barrick Gold Corp., alleging the companies had "manipulated the price of gold," earning them more than $1.7 billion, putting them in the dominant position in the market and keeping the precious metal at abnormally low prices.

The contention of the lawsuit was denied by Barrick, which claimed it was "ludicrous and totally without merit." However, in February of this year, U.S. District Court Chief Judge Helen G. Berrigan of the Eastern District of Louisiana denied Barrick`s motion to dismiss the case based on the mining company`s own admission that central banks around the world are involved and therefore out of the court`s jurisdiction.

It appears from the transcript of the case that Berrigan is unwilling to be intimidated by the big-money men.

Judge Berrigan: "How would those contracts be challenged, under your theory that everybody [central banks] has to be involved? Because, how do you get jurisdiction over everybody?"

Wegener (attorney for Barrick): " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "You can`t."

Judge Berrigan: So you all can just tallyho and do anticompetitive stuff? So the idea is, if you get enough people involved in the monopoly, then you`re immune from litigation?"

Wegener: " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Well, I don`t think it`s quite that."

Judge Berrigan:"And you`re saying it`s not possible to bring everybody (all the central banks) in?"

Wegener: " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Yeah, I think you can`t bring the central banks in, because they`re immune. You can`t bring in all the bullion banks because they`re beyond the jurisdiction of the court."

Judge Berrigan: "I mean, if what you say is correct, then it sounds like the legal remedy is for individual plaintiffs, like say Blanchard, to go to the United States court like he`s done here, and go after J.P. Morgan. And then wherever these entities are, to go to those courts, in those countries, in those locales, and try to seek the same relief. But I`m very much troubled by the end result of your argument, which is to the effect that if an outfit is large enough and involves enough people, enough entities, then they can kind of do what they want. But I just don`t find it possible to think that something could - if, in fact, there is an antitrust violation going on here - that because it involves so many powerful entities from all around the world, therefore, it`s going to be immune from being challenged. That`s, as we say, not acceptable."

Gold bugs have for years contended that the price of gold has been manipulated by bullion banks in cooperation with the central banks. Based on the admission of Barrick`s attorney, it appears the central banks are indeed very much involved if only to assist in Barrick`s defense.

Kelly Patricia O`Meara is an investigative reporter for Insight.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4671498&act…

(AFX-Focus) 2003-06-13 17:56 GMT: Gold futures gain ground on stock market weakness - UPDATE 2

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures climbed Friday afternoon, reversing from earlier lows as a fall in the broader stock market lured investors to the precious metals. Still, prices were poised to end the week with loss of around $9 an ounce. Metals and mining shares traded mostly higher. Gold for August delivery traded at $355.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.90 after an earlier drop of as much as $2. News that U.S. consumer confidence weakened in June helped drive most U.S. stocks lower, and sent many investors back to the precious metals sector. The Dow Jones Industrials traded under the 9,200 level.

"Gold prices remain well-supported, while policymakers continue to talk about lowering interest rates even more," said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider. Gold futures are up around 2 percent year-to-date. While the White House says it favors a strong dollar, many in the Federal Reserve continue to say they may cut interest rates again, or make more reserves available, said Hultman. "Fed policy continues to be the main thrust behind the weak dollar, no matter what the White House or Treasury Secretary says," according to Hultman. "Until the economic news can make a stronger case for higher interest rates, gold should continue to do well." Down for the week For the week, gold futures are set to close with a loss of around $9.

A week ago, gold closed at $364.50. Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider, believes there`s "not much of a compelling story to buy gold at this time." "The near-term bullish gold story is the dollar weakness," he said, though the dollar has, in recent days, started to gain some "traction" vs. the euro. In addition to dollar moves, "the stock market rally that we have seen since March is helping to direct investor interest away from traditional `safe-haven` asset classes towards more traditional fare like stocks and bonds," Garrett said. In recent dealings, the dollar lost some ground against the euro, the Canadian dollar, and the yen. Foreign traders pay close attention to fluctuations in the greenback since they must swap out of their local currencies to buy dollar-denominated gold on U.S. markets. Shares move up
In the equities arena, the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index traded at 77.63, up 1.2 percent. The CBOE Gold Index was up 1.3 percent to 64.48 and the Amex Gold Bugs Index traded at 148.23, up 1.3 percent.

Among the biggest gainers were shares of Agnico-Eagle Mines, which tacked on 19 cents to $11.59, and Gold Fields Ltd. , up 25 cents to $12.20. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold was among the few decliners. Shares were down 14 cents at $23.49.

Silver futures climb In other Nymex action, July silver traded at $4.575 an ounce, up 7 cents from the previous session.

"The failure to break below $4.40 has been positive for the metal, although the resistance around $4.55 does seem quite lumpy and we could just see it trade the range for some time,"

said James Moore, an analyst TheBullionDesk.com in London.

Elsewhere on Nymex, the July platinum contract rose by $10.50 to $663 an ounce, while September palladium traded at $188 an ounce, up $6.10. July copper traded at 76.2 cents a pound, down 1.2 cents. Metals supplies were mixed. Nymex gold inventories stood at 2.47 million troy ounces late Thursday, unchanged from the previous session.

Silver inventories were down 41,867 troy ounces at 105.7 million troy ounces. Copper stocks fell by 912 short tons to 327,914 short tons. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see

www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

[niemandweiss]

@ Thaiguru # 5987

"Wie lange dauert es eigentlich noch, bis sich die etablierte deutsche Presse mit diesem höchst interessanten Thema "Gold Preis Manipulation" befasst"


Gegenfrage:
Warum sollte sie, von was oder wen lebt die "etablierte" Presse bzw. wessen Interessen hat sie zu vertreten, um zu überleben ? Sicherlich nicht die der wenigen Goldanhänger bzw. deren Spekulanten.

[silvo]

zumindest dürfte es nicht mehr lange dauern bis auch ein paar chart-Techniker bemerkt haben, daß GFI heute deutlich über die 200 Tg-Linie gegangen ist!

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

Deine Gegenfrage trifft genau den Punkt!

Warum sollte sich die Presse eigentlich mir dem brisanten Thema Gold Preis Manipulation beschäftigen, und zu riskieren, und damit höchstwahrscheinlich bei einigen ihrer wichtigsten Kunden auf die Füsse zu treten, damit gewaltig zu verärgern, und sich dadurch in`s eigene Fleisch zu schneiden?

Nun, diese Ansicht könnte man als Zeitungsredaktion vertreten, falls es sich beim Thema Gold nur um ein Randthema handeln würde.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Es handelt sich aber nicht nur um ein Randthema, sondern um "DAS" Thema überhaupt, nämlich ganz einfach um unser aller Geld.

Diese Verweigerung der Presse, über die Tatsachen beim Goldgeschehen zu berichten, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, zeigt zumindest einen grossen Mangel an Verantwotungsbewusstsein gegenüber ihrer Leserschaft, und verletzt wohl in etwa alles, was ein Reporter, oder Redaktor einer Presse vorgibt für seine Leser sein zu wollen:

Eine Vertrauenswürdige Informationsquelle.

Wie auch immer, eineige Zeitungen, werden berichten, und zwar nicht nur die Verlautbarungen von Nachrichtenagenturen wie Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, etc., sondern eigene Erkenntnisse, und Recherchen zum Goldgeschehen, die Tatsachen und Fakten zum Goldgeschehen sicher etwas anders erkennen werden, als die obengenannten Nachrichtenagenturen.

Einige wenige Zeitungen, Zeitschriften, und Internetportale, scheinen sich trotz ihrer zahlenden Inseratekunden bereits entschieden zu haben, zu den Fakten einer Gold Preis Manipulations zu berichten, ebenso auch dringend nötige Fragen zu stellen, damit diese uns alle, nicht nur die Goldbesitzer, betreffende Story endlich den Weg ans Licht der Oeffentlichkeit findet.

Viele seriöse, und zum Teil auch Weltbekannte Analysten haben bereits zu diesen Vorgängen interessante Veröffentlichungen gemacht, die diese unglaublichen Vorgänge rund um den Goldpreis beschreiben, und dokumentieren. Im Internet gibt es dazu nicht wenige Home Pages, die sich seit Jahren mit diesen massiven Vorwürfen befassen. Solche Seiten gibt es auch bereits seit längerer Zeit im deutschen Sprachraum, nicht zuletzt das Gold Forum im WOnline Board.

Insight Magazin http://www.insightmag.com/news/439175.html wird bei Leibe nicht die einzige mainstream Presse Quelle bleiben, die den Gold Preis Manipulations Vorwürfen an die Adresse einiger weniger Gold Bullion Banken, und Zentralbanken, den nötigen Stellenwert einräumt, glaub mir`s.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Ist ja schon interessant!

Wenn der Dollar stark an Wert verliert, ist das Gold Cabal gezwungen beim Goldpreis den Deckel etwas zu lockern, und Gold darf etwas steigen.

Auf der der andern Seite, wenn der Dollar etwas ansteigt, z.Bsp. durch Interventionen von Zentralbanken, fällt der Gold stark, jeweils gleich um zig Dollars pro Unze.

Zusätzlich kriegt der Goldpreis noch jeweil allermeistens eins auf`s Dach wenn der DOW gestiegen (worden) ist! (Fundamental gesehen liegt dafür ja bestimmt kein Grund vor)

Doch wenn der Dow fällt, scheint das meistens praktisch überhaupt keinen Einfluss mehr auf den Goldpreis zu haben?

Einige mögen glauben, dass sich der Gold Preis vom Dollarpreis abgekoppelt habe. Ich selbst bin vorderhand noch vom Gegenteil überzeugt, obwohl auch ich überzeugt bin, dass sich der Goldpreis wirklich zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt noch vom Dollar abkoppeln wird, erscheint mir zur Zeit eher als wahrscheinlich, dass die Preis Manipulationen beim Goldpreis einerseits, und die Interventionen (sind ja auch nichts anderes als Manipulationen!) der Zentralbanken am Devisen Markt zugunsten des US Dollars, und den Markteingriffen an den Börsen durch die FED, zu verzerrungen beim Verhältnis Gold - US Dollar geführt haben.

Den unten geposteten Charts kann man unschwer entnehmen, dass da irgend etwas nicht so ist, wie es eigentlich sein sollte.

Gold: Charts


Dollar: Charts


Gold: 3 Tages-Chart


Dollar: 3 Tages Chart


DOW Chart

[ThaiGuru]

June 13 - Gold $356.50 up $3.60 - Silver $4.57 up 7 cents

Barrick Hit, Freddy Mac?, War Troubles, Dollar Flops, Gold Shares Rock


Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Believe in yourself! Have faith in your abilities!

Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy"

Norman Vincent Peale

(I was fortunate to be an attending member of Marble Collegiate Church in New York City while Dr. Peale was still giving sermons there.)

What a great way for our camp to end the week! The gold action was classically BULLISH! Due higher, gold sold off quickly on the downside to test $350, with $351 holding. After the big beating it took on Tuesday, it is very normal for rallies to be sold - usually for the following week or more. So far, those sell-offs have been brief, checked by shorts that want to cover. The Comex open interest contracted once again, down 2138 contracts to 192,440. Gold is only $14 away from breaking out and the open interest is more than 53,000 contracts off its high earlier this year. The specs are exiting at the moment. As gold moves up, they will come back in on the long side. That might not happen for another $10 to the upside. This means there is an enormous amount of buying power that will enter the market at higher levels. Such buying power could propel gold through $370 in a blink.

Gold
http://ad.tradingcharts.com/ads/adauth/popup.html

As mentioned in recent MIDAS commentary, the gold fundamentals are a"10+" and getting better. No sense repeating them again. Only the demented selling by The Gold Cartel has prevented gold from taking out $370 and $400. While they continue to win a battle here and there, they are losing the gold war. They will be carried out on a stretcher because everything is going against them. Murphy’s Law is kicking in.

That is what CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH has been about all these years. Stay tuned.

Silver has bottomed and remains one of the great risk/reward commodity buys of all time.

Morgan Stanley was the featured buyer again today as they continue to cover shorts. Maybe they have done so and are going long. The Comex open interest rose a substantial 3089 contracts yesterday to 83,378.

This is very good news. The funds with a lousy silver trading record were the sellers yesterday. The trade was the buyer.

Silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/73

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

June 13, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.06, PM $5.42, with world gold at $354.35 and $354. Ample for legal imports. Several of the dealer commentaries refer to having seen physical appetite recently.

Despite numerous negative remarks, gold in yen held steady in Japan this morning, with the active contract closing down 1 yen. This involved $US gold rising $1.40. Volume was quiet, down 27% to the equivalent of 32,225 Comex lots. Open interest fell the equivalent of 1,205 Comex lots. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 40,000 lots.)

This week a "Bridgewater Daily Observations" discussed the apparently often forgotten fact that a sustained decline of the dollar (down 17% in the past 12 months basis the Dollar Index) tends to cause $- denominated commodity prices to rise.

Today a WSJ article talks of extending this argument to US stock prices, a somewhat more arguable but nevertheless consideration-worthy concept. Yet, oddly, none of the numerous negative comments on gold surfacing in the past day or so seem to give this factor a passing glance. This despite gold being the most internationally fungible commodity of all. Since gold’s peak in early February the Dollar Index is down 7%; if gold had tracked the slide of the Index since the turn of the year it would have been over $382 this morning. The Bears are going into the teeth of a wind which shows every sign of getting sharper.

The initiative may well be passing from the Bears’ paws – and it seems the gold equities can sense it.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Gegen Barrick Gold wurde in den USA eine weitere Klage bei Gericht eingereicht!

Mehr dazu später

Wünsche allen ein schönes Wochenende

Gruss

Thaiguru

[schuh]

Hoffentlich bricht sich barrick das genick.

[niemandweiss]

@ Thaiguru

# 5992

genau das fällt mir in letzter Zeit auch auf. Ergänzend noch ein paar Vergleichscharts

Euro/Gold (blau) 10Tagesvergleich
jüngster Goldbash


während Gold im Februar den Dollar sogar noch übertraf, wurde dieses seither "verdächtig" nach unten gedrückt und ist Anfang Juni noch einmal überproportional "gefallen", um nicht zu sagen gebasht worden. Ergänzend dazu fällt mir der Satz ein aus # 5978 " Entsprechende Gerüchte kursieren seit langem in den USA. Es wurde auch der Verdacht geäußert, Washington hätte auf deutsches Gold zurückgegriffen, um damit am Markt zu intervenieren."



dieser Abfall bei Gold Anfang Juni scheint den Minen (noch?) erspart geblieben zu sein.



Es liegt halt nicht im Interesse der maroden US-Wirtschaft, Gold unter diesen Voraussetzungen gedeihen zu lassen, zumal der Anstieg der letzten Monaten eindeutig auf FED-Interventionen zurückzuführen ist und mittlerweile vollkommen überzogen ist.

[Der_Glueckliche]

Und es liegt auch nicht im Interesse der grossen Bankhäuser Geld an die kleinen Spekulanten zu verlieren.

Deswegen wird immer, wenn die Spekulanten zu viele Calls auf Gold und sonstige Gold Longpositionen halten, Material gegeben, um den Preis zu drücken.

Sowohl Anfang Februar als auch Anfang Juni waren die Spekulanten zu über 100.000 Kontrakten netto long in Gold, das ist die Menge von über 100 Millionen Unzen, was ungefähr dem Weltjahresumsatz an physischem Gold entspricht.

Gleichzeitig waren die physischen Märkte relativ umsatzschwach, weil bei den hohen Preisen wenig Käufer da waren, Indien hat zum Beispiel gar nicht gekauft, sóndern stattdessen eigenes Material durch Recycling gewonnen.

Das war die Gelegenheit für die Goldbänker, Material zu geben, um den Preis zu drücken und auf diese Weise ein vielfaches an den dummen Spekulanten zu verdienen, die zu 80% auf einen weiter steigenden Goldpreis setzten.

Jetzt setzen immer noch zu viele Spekulanten auf einen steigenden Goldpreis, netto long Positionen immer noch 93 Millionen Unzen.

Unter diesen Umständen kann Gold nicht steigen, jedenfalls nicht nachhaltig.

Schuld sind die dummen Spekulanten, die glauben, daß Gold die Währung der Zukunft ist, und sich Goldcalls oder ähnliches kaufen, womit sie den Goldbänkern nur neue Munition geben.

Das hat mit Verschwörung nichts zu tun, ist nur ganz normales Marktgeschehen.

Wenn sich die Spekulanten echtes Gold kaufen würden, täte es vielleicht anders aussehen, nur dann würden über kurz oder lang neue Minen eröffnet, um den gestiegenen Bedarf zu befriedigen.

Es gibt genug Gold, es ist nur eine Frage der Energie, es aus der Wüste zu kratzen.

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Glueckliche

Du musst entweder nicht ganz bei Trost sein, oder es liegt Die anscheinend viel daran, wieder besseres Wissens, Falschmeldungen zum Goldgeschehen zu verbreiten.

Habe es Dir schon einmal hier im Thread klar erklärt

Ein Future Gold Kontrakt entsprechen 100 Unzen Gold, und nicht wie Du heute schon zum zweiten mal, diesmal wohl mit voller Absicht, fälschlicherweise behauptest, 1000 Unzen!

Dein Beispiel von 100`000 Gold Kontrakten entsprechen nicht wie Du heute bereits zum Zweitenmal hier behauptest 100 Millionen Unzen, sondern 10 Millionen Unzen, also 90% weniger, als Du in zwei Postings von Dir behauptet hast.

Dementsprechen ist Deine Aussage, es handle sich um eine volle Jahres Produktion Gold ebenso total falsch!

Du schreibst:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Schuld sind die dummen Spekulanten, die glauben, daß Gold die Währung der Zukunft ist, und sich Goldcalls oder ähnliches kaufen, womit sie den Goldbänkern nur neue Munition geben."

Wenn Du das wirklich glauben solltest, ist das Dein gutes Recht, falls Du Deine Ueberzeugung anderen Lesern weitergeben möchtest ist das auch in Ordnung, doch weiter Falschmeldungen zu verbreiten, und das bereits wiederholt, ist kein guter Background für Deinen Wunsch die Leser hier im Thread vorm Kauf von Gold zu warnen.

Du solltest Dich zuerst einmal mit der Materie Gold etwas mehr beschäftigen, bevor Du falsche Zahlen zum Goldgeschehen veröffentlichst!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.milberg.com/mil-cgi-bin/mil?case=barrick&templ=ca…

Milberg Weiss Announces Class Action Lawsuit
Against Barrick Gold Corp.

New York -- June 12, 2003 -- The law firm of Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Lerach LLP announces that a class action lawsuit was filed on June 12, 2003, on behalf of purchasers of the securities of Barrick Gold Corp.("Barrick" or the "Company") (NYSE: ABX) between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002 inclusive (the "Class Period"). A copy of the complaint filed in this action is available from the Court, or can be viewed on Milberg Weiss` website at:

http://www.milberg/cases/barrick

The action, numbered 03-CV-4302, is pending in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, located at 500 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10007 against defendants Barrick, Randall Oliphant (CEO and President until February 12, 2003), John K. Carrington (COO and Vice Chairman) and Jamie C. Sokalsky (CFO).

The complaint charges that defendants violated Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Rule 10b-5 promulgated thereunder, by issuing a series of materially false and misleading statements to the market between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002. For example, throughout the Class Period, Barrick assured the markets that it was improving its operations by keeping its production costs in check and that the Company expected to earn 0.47 per share in 2002, even taking into account the phasing out of several mines and decreasing ore quality (which increases costs) in several of its mines. These representations were materially false and misleading, according to the complaint, because they failed to disclose that the Company`s expected costs for the year would be well above the figures highlighted to the public, that Barrick`s costs per ounce had increased dramatically in 2002 and would continue to increase throughout the year, and that the Company`s repeated assurances that production and costs would continue to improve in 2002 were lacking in any reasonable basis and were contradicted by facts known to defendants, or, at the very least, recklessly disregarded by them. On September 26, 2002, the Company announced that it expects to earn materially less in 2002 than previously announced, due to increased costs stemming from production issues at several mines (which, the Company misleadingly represented during the Class Period, would be resolved in the second half of 2002). In reaction to the announcement, which came only days after the Company reiterated its positive expectations, Barrick`s stock fell by 10.5% in one day, from $17.77 on September 25, 2002 to $15.90 on September 26, on extremely heavy trading volume.

If you bought the securities of Barrick between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002 you may, no later than August 11, 2003 , request that the Court appoint you as lead plaintiff. A lead plaintiff is a representative party that acts on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation. In order to be appointed lead plaintiff, the Court must determine that the class member`s claim is typical of the claims of other class members, and that the class member will adequately represent the class. Under certain circumstances, one or more class members may together serve as "lead plaintiff." Your ability to share in any recovery is not, however, affected by the decision whether or not to serve as a lead plaintiff. You may retain Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Lerach LLP, or other counsel of your choice, to serve as your counsel in this action.

Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Lerach LLP (http://www.milberg.com) is a 220-lawyer firm with offices in New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boca Raton, Philadelphia and Seattle, and is active in major litigations pending in federal and state courts throughout the United States. Milberg Weiss has taken a leading role in many important actions on behalf of defrauded investors, consumers, and others, and has been responsible for more than $20 billion in aggregate recoveries. Please contact the Milberg Weiss website for more information about the firm. If you wish to discuss this action with us, or have any questions concerning this notice or your rights and interests with regard to the case, please contact the following attorney:

Steven G. Schulman
One Pennsylvania Plaza, 49th fl.
New York, NY, 10119-0165

Phone number: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]
Website: http://www.milberg.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/…



Barrick Gold sued by U.S. law firms

Bloomberg News

Friday, June 13, 2003 - Page B8

Barrick Gold Corp., the world`s third-biggest gold producer, is being sued by law firms that claim the company misled investors by forecasting higher earnings than it delivered last year.

Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Lerach LLP filed a lawsuit and asked a federal court in New York to grant it class-action status on behalf of all investors who bought Barrick stock between Feb. 14, 2002, and Sept. 26, the law firm said. A similar suit was also filed by law firm Cauley Geller Bowman & Rudman LLP.

Barrick`s "operating challenges were presented as they came to our attention," company spokesman Vince Borg said in an interview. He said the company would respond more fully once it had a chance to review the documents.

Toronto-based Barrick is accused of issuing a series of "materially false and misleading statements" to the markets during the time period. The company failed to disclose that its mining costs would rise and that it wouldn`t meet earnings forecasts of between 42 cents and 47 cents (U.S.) a share for the year, the law firm said.
The charges haven`t been proven in court.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cauleygeller.com/template7.asp?pcode=5&pp=1&nid=1…

06/12/2003

Cauley Geller Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against Barrick Gold Corp. on Behalf of Investors

New York - The Law Firm of Cauley Geller Bowman & Rudman, LLP announced today that a class action lawsuit has been filed in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, located at 500 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10007, on behalf of purchasers of Barrick Gold Corp. ("Barrick Gold" or the "Company") (NYSE:ABX - news) publicly traded securities during the period between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002, inclusive (the "Class Period"). A copy of the complaint filed in this action is available from the Court, or can be viewed on the firm`s website at:

http://www.cauleygeller.com/show_case.asp?ccode=135&pcode=10….

The complaint charges that defendants Barrick, Randall Oliphant (CEO and President until February 12, 2003), John K. Carrington (COO and Vice Chairman) and Jamie C. Sokalsky (CFO) violated Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Rule 10b-5 promulgated thereunder, by issuing a series of materially false and misleading statements to the market between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002. For example, throughout the Class Period, Barrick assured the markets that it was improving its operations by keeping its production costs in check and that the Company expected to earn $0.42-$0.47 per share in 2002, even taking into account the phasing out of several mines and decreasing ore quality (which increases costs) in several of its mines. These representations were materially false and misleading, according to the complaint, because they failed to disclose that the Company`s expected costs for the year would be well above the figures highlighted to the public, that Barrick`s costs per ounce had increased dramatically in 2002 and would continue to increase throughout the year, and that the Company`s repeated assurances that production and costs would continue to improve in 2002 were lacking in any reasonable basis and were contradicted by facts known to defendants, or, at the very least, recklessly disregarded by them. On September 26, 2002, the Company announced that it expects to earn materially less in 2002 than previously announced, due to increased costs stemming from production issues at several mines (which, the Company misleadingly represented during the Class Period, would be resolved in the second half of 2002). In reaction to the announcement, which came only days after the Company reiterated its positive expectations, Barrick`s stock fell by 10.5% in one day, from $17.77 on September 25, 2002 to $15.90 on September 26, on extremely heavy trading volume.

If you bought Barrick Gold publicly traded securities between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002, inclusive, and you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than August 11, 2003. If you are a member of this class, you can join this class action online by clicking here. Any member of the purported class may move the Court to serve as lead plaintiff through Cauley Geller or other counsel of their choice, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member.

Cauley Geller is a national law firm that represents investors and consumers in class action and corporate governance litigation. It is one of the country`s premiere firms in the area of securities fraud, with in-house finance and forensic accounting specialists and extensive trial experience. Since its founding, Cauley Geller has recovered in excess of two billion dollars on behalf of aggrieved shareholders. The firm maintains offices in Boca Raton, Little Rock and New York.

If you have any questions about how you may be able to recover for your losses, or if you would like to consider serving as one of the lead plaintiffs in this lawsuit, you are encouraged to call or e-mail the Firm or visit the Firm`s website at www.cauleygeller.com.

Contact:

CAULEY GELLER BOWMAN & RUDMAN, LLP

Samuel H. Rudman, Esq. or David A. Rosenfeld, Esq.

Client Relations Department:
Jackie Addison, Heather Gann or Candace Randle
P.O. Box 25438
Little Rock, AR 72221-5438
Toll Free: 1-888-551-9944
Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]

Media contacts:
Samuel H. Rudman, Esq. or David A. Rosenfeld, Esq.
1-631-367-7100

[ThaiGuru]

Barrick, the anti-gold company, was hit with another lawsuit yesterday. What goes around comes around.

The executives of that company are not much different than the ones on Wall Street that bilked internet and high tech investors out of hundreds of billions. Barrick induced people over the years to invest in their company and then conspired with The Gold Cartel to keep the gold price from going up. May the Barrick executives still around all go the way of ex-president Randall Oliphant who was fired.

***

Barrick`s drop in earnings is a result of the new accounting rules that required that derivatives be attached to the operations that they hedge and because of Barrick`s accounting selection which requires that the losses from derivative hedges be applied to the project they are hedging and be realized in the quarter in which they occurred.

As gold turned against Barrick hedges, Barrick chose not to be totally truthful but to via spin city talk attribute the loses to each project saying the economics, of say, the Bulyanhulu project had turned bad and therefore Bulyanhulu had not performed well resulting in lower profits. People assumed ABX was speaking about something had gone wrong with the mining economics of the Bulyanhulu when this was not true. The absolute truth was the mine economics performed perfectly but the hedge cost Bulyanhulu`s bottom line.

Management was predicting good earning based on the true operating results then came the blow from the costly hedges resulting in lower profits. Barrick spin city talked, saying it was a shift in the economics of 12 of their projects all at once. It was not. It was the hedges losing money being applied to the projects that hurt their economics. This is proven by the comments in the last annual statement for instance concerning the mine economics of the Bulyanhulu that has functioned perfectly. Lawyer talking which spin city talking is so closely approximates lying actually to your shareholders always get you in deep trouble. When gold was dropping sharply in the long Bull market ABX had no problem telling the world all the money they made on the hedges short [position of gold as they helped gold go lower orally and by their trading. Now that gold is going up and their hedges are costing them money the spin city talk to keep the focus off their now losing gold commodity trading operations they call hedging.

This suit is a product of that spin city talk to stockholders rather than admitting that the damn hedging is killing you.

The problem with ABX is the old man Munk cannot get off his proposition that hedging which he brought to the gold industry is a wonderful contribution when it was the worst thing that ever happened to gold.

Unless ABX follows in NEM`s fine example and dumps their hedges they can announce twenty stocks buy backs but all they will do is buy their stock back and go private at a low price.

–END-

Barrick is getting pounded from all directions. Kelly O’Meara of Insight Magazine touches on the Blanchard suit and the gold price manipulation issue at:

http://www.insightmag.com/news/439175.html

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Japan Strikes Again

Back to the Future, America?

The second pennant that the "Zero Bound" Japanese Monetary Authorities have run up their flag pole to see if anyone in the world salutes it is another humdinger. Now the Japanese central bank is considering monetizing private debt.

You heard me right, private debt. Japan`s Central Bank announced on June 11th that it will be buying debts owed to the commercial banks by moderate sized private sector companies. They will buy almost 9 billion US dollars worth of this type of debt consolidated into a security form.

The Japanese have taken a cue from Freddie Mac in securitizing but in Japan`s case what amounts to busted private debt. One wonders if they will hire the recently dethroned executive from Freddie Mac to devise a derivative package so that this securitized package of stone broke debt can show a profit regardless of any market condition as all derivatives seem to do if we are to believe their owners. Therefore we now have heard from "Zero Bound" central of two quite unique initiatives. The first is negative interest on saving and now the monetization of private debt. Monetization takes place when a central bank creates credit money (Today`s "Bernanke Printing Press" gigabit money) and utilizes that newly produced electronic currency to buy, in Japan`s case, 9 billion US dollars worth of what amount to economically hopeless obligations. If the obligations were functioning the banks would not sell them as they would have a better value in the normal course of business. It is therefore the monetization of private debt. Monetization of public debt is a common tool used by central banks.

Monetization of private debt is a considerable reach. The cash so produced in this unique monetization of private debt then goes into the private banking system`s account at the central bank. However, what will happen is that the bank will use the majority of those funds to shore up the private bank`s own financial condition and will not be likely to or might not be able to freely lend those funds as is expected by text book interpretation.

What central banks hopelessly fail to understand is the mind of the marketplace. As in the movie "Bullsworth" where the senator who is having a nervous breakdown and therefore telling the truth, demands that the conservative far right power structure people verbalized the reality that politics is all about BIG MONEY. The central bankers should just say exactly what today`s need is, "we need INFLATION to survive "Zero Bound." Come on guys, it will not cause your instant demise. Don`t call the absolute need for increasing prices, the need for "Stable Prices."

Regardless of the wild equity bear market rally taking place last week, business still stinks to high heaven. Those that suggest for some devious reason that the Fed knows exactly what it is doing cannot be correct. The Fed is going to sink Bush and all the rest of the US if it maintains this fear of just what is needed to give the US chance to climb out of this mess, INFLATION.

The Chinese are pushing their Money Supply up at a rate of 19%. As a result China may well be healthy economically while the US, GB, all the Euro currency countries are sinking towards the Japanese condition of "Zero Bound".

The race to ZB is on and it can happen here. Don`t kid yourself that the US is different from Japan. Once you cross into ZB territory the mind of the market, which no central banker has a clue to, turns depression. Then all the monetization you do of public or private debt creates nothing but STAGFLATION with no economic gain. Roosevelt`s statement "That all we have to fear is fear itself," is a response to the mind of a market that has lost it confidence in the spin city spinners.

Time is running out in the Western World. The US Administration, US Central Bank and Blair`s Brits have fallen hook, line and sinker for the Sino/Islamic strategy for economic world domination. The combination in the United States of dependence by the central bank on dropping interest rates to practically Zero (we are there), depreciating the US dollar (Secretary Snow`s only good statement, "no nation ever prospered from devaluation" JES adds in a recessionary world environment) and spin city talking the equity markets higher is a temporary and dangerous Wall Street talking head fool`s paradise. Black Friday is approaching because this strategy is juvenile in the present conditions. The Fed fears the past that can save the US now, Inflation and loves what is going to kill the US and is present now, deflation. All the gold you can obtain in this short term gold price reaction will not protect you from the results at the hands of this Fed.

The Bush Administration`s greatest enemy is not bin Laden or Hussein but US Federal Reserve non-expansion monetary policy. Now do you understand why for so many years the Asian/Islamic interests bought every ounce of gold hedged by the hedgers, sold by the gold cartel and wasted in disinvestment by the worn out gold public. Now you realize what the Malaysian Gold Dinar is the beginning of. Madness at high levels is driving this vehicle called the Western economy directly off a cliff. Those that gave you the Tech 2000 Bubble are now cooking up Millennium Black Friday.

Jim Sinclair

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/06/15/118053.html

Betrug, Fälschung und Insolvenzen: der tiefe Sturz der Wunderkinder

Einst gefeiert wie Popstars, sind die Helden der New Economy zu Aktenzeichen geworden. Jetzt kümmert sich die Justiz um die Gescheiterten

von Thomas Heuzeroth

Die Brüder Thomas (l) und Florian Haffa im Landgericht München. Sie müssen sich seit Anfang November wegen Manipulationen am Kurs der EM.TV-Aktie verantworten. Foto: dpa

Am Ende ging alles ganz schnell. Kaum war die zweimotorige Privatmaschine auf dem Flughafen Fuhlsbüttel gelandet, machte sich Verlagserbe und Internet-Unternehmer Alexander Falk auf den Weg ins Hamburger Polizeipräsidium. Die Nacht durfte er dann im Untersuchungsgefängnis verbringen: auf neun Quadratmetern. Im "Planquadrat L52" des patentgefalteten Falk-Stadtplans, wie die "Bild"-Zeitung titelte. Der vorläufige Höhepunkt des New-Economy-Scherbenhaufens.

Jetzt wird zusammengekehrt: Hausdurchsuchungen, Ermittlungsverfahren, Verurteilungen, Schadenersatzklagen, Bilanzfälschungen, Aktienbetrug, Pfändungsbeschlüsse und Privatinsolvenzen. Die einstigen Vorzeigeunternehmer haben den Durchblick und die Bodenhaftung verloren - und finden sich in den Regalwänden der Gerichte als Aktenzeichen wieder.

Alexander Falk ist das jüngste Beispiel. Einst unter den 100 reichsten Deutschen zählt er heute mit einem geschätzten Vermögen von über 400 Millionen Euro immerhin noch zu den ärmeren Reichsten. Dass Falk trotz eines prallen Bankkontos und Luxusvilla an der Hamburger Alster seine Tage und Nächte in der Zelle verbringt, hat nur einen Grund: Fluchtgefahr. So sieht es zumindest das Gericht. Unnötig, meint dazu Falks Anwalt Gerhard Strate. Schließlich habe sich Falk ja gestellt. Die Beschwerde gegen den Haftbefehl ist unterwegs. Der Vorwurf der Staatsanwaltschaft: Durch betrügerisches Manipulieren von Umsätzen - so genannte Luftbuchungen - haben Falk und sechs weitere Manager den Börsenkurs seiner Firma Ision AG vor dem Verkauf an das britische Unternehmen Energis künstlich in die Höhe getrieben. Energis übernahm Ision für 812 Millionen Euro und ging anschließend in die Insolvenz. Die Kleinaktionäre von Ision bekamen Energis-Aktien, die später wertlos waren. Falk - inzwischen Mehrheitseigner und Aufsichtsratschef bei der Frankfurter Wertpapierhandels- und Investmentbank Hornblower Fischer - bestreitet die Vorwürfe.

Fast ließe sich die Regel aufstellen: Je schillernder die Figuren, desto tiefer ihr Sturz. Mobilcom-Gründer Gerhard Schmid zählte noch im vergangenen Jahr zu den 100 reichsten Deutschen. Jetzt musste der Telekom-Herausforderer aus Büdelsdorf in die Privatinsolvenz gehen. Pleite. Schlimmer noch: Der ehemalige Eishockey-Trainer soll rund 300 Millionen Euro Schulden haben. Ein großes Bauprojekt in Kiel liegt auf Eis. Schmid ist aus dem operativen Geschäft seines Unternehmens herausgedrängt worden, seine Mobilcom-Aktien liegen als Sicherheit für Kredite bei Banken und werden treuhänderisch verwaltet. Der einstige Milliardär steht mit leeren Händen dar. Und nun ermittelt die Kieler Staatsanwaltschaft gegen Schmid wegen des Verdachts auf Untreue. Hausdurchsuchung inklusive. Eine Anklageerhebung stehe kurz bevor, heißt es. Schmid soll als Mobilcom-Chef unrechtmäßig 70 Millionen Euro Firmengeld auf Konten der Millenium GmbH überwiesen haben, einer Firma, die seiner Ehefrau Sybille Schmid gehört.

Anscheinend im freien Fall befindet sich auch Lars Windhorst. Kaum ein Titel, den der 26-Jährige nicht für sich in Anspruch nahm: deutscher Bill Gates, Unternehmer-Wunderkind, Teenager-Tycoon. Tatsächlich war Windhorsts Aufstieg rasant. Bevor er 13 Jahre alt war, las er unter der Schulbank das Handelsblatt, mit 14 Jahren baute er in der Garage seines Vaters Computer zusammen, mit 16 Jahren gründete er seine erste Firma und mit 19 Jahren meldete Windhorst mit seiner in Deutschland und Asien operierenden Windhorst-Gruppe einen Umsatz von 180 Millionen Mark. Kanzler Helmut Kohl duzte den Jungunternehmer und nahm ihn auf Auslandsreisen mit. "Deutschland braucht mehr Wunderkinder wie ihn", sagte Kohl damals. Windhorst handelte mit Schmierstoffen, Filmen, ganzen Fabriken, Elektronikteilen und Computern. Sogar den Filmstar Michael Douglas und Ex-Schachweltmeister Garri Kasparow konnte der Jungunternehmer für sich einspannen. Mit Sushi und Champagner weihte Windhorst noch im Oktober 2000 sein Luxusbüro im Kollhoff-Hochhaus am Potsdamer Platz in Berlin ein. Dann begann der Abstieg. Der Windhorst-Tower, ein 100-Millionen-Dollar-Projekt in Vietnam, stürzte in sich zusammen, noch ehe er gebaut wurde. Zuletzt scheiterten seine Pläne im Internet- und Elektronikgeschäft. Die Windhorst AG zog sich auf Finanzdienstleistungen zurück. Die Windhorst Electronic GmbH hat nach Angaben von Windhorst die Geschäftstätigkeit eingestellt. Im Herbst 2002 erklärte sich Windhorst erst nach Androhung der Zwangsvollstreckung bereit, die letzten Mitarbeiterabfindungen zu zahlen.

Betrug, Fälschung und Insolvenzen: der tiefe Sturz der Wunderkinder (2)

Für den Unternehmer aus Rahden in Ostwestfalen wird es jetzt noch unangenehmer. Gerüchte über Liquiditätsprobleme wollte Windhorst gegenüber dieser Zeitung nicht kommentieren. Nur so viel: "Wir nehmen das aber ernst." Tatsächlich steht das "Wunderkind" vor der Pfändung. Eine Millionenforderung zweier Geschäftsleute aus Marokko hat er trotz eines Urteils des Landgerichts Bielefeld vom vergangenen März nicht bedient. Ein Besuch Windhorsts am vergangenen Wochenende in Marokko blieb nach Informationen dieser Zeitung ergebnislos. Rechtsanwalt Ulrich Arlt von der Sozietät Knauthe-Eggers betreibt inzwischen eine Zwangsvollstreckung. "Windhorst hat unsere Vergleichsgespräche abgebrochen", sagt Arlt. Ein Pfändungs- und Überweisungsbeschluss für seine Bankkonten liegt den Angaben zufolge bereits vor. In den nächsten Wochen könnte auch der Gerichtsvollzieher bei Windhorst im vornehmen Berliner Stadtteil Grunewald anklopfen. Sollten auch so die zwei Millionen Dollar nicht zusammenkommen, könnte es sogar zum Offenbarungseid kommen. Dann ist der Ruf des einstigen Vorzeigeunternehmers vollends hin.

Den Spießrutenlauf haben die Haffa-Brüder bereits hinter sich. In einem spektakulären Showdown wurden Thomas und Florian Haffa vor dem Landgericht München im April zu 1,4 Millionen Euro Geldstrafe wegen Bilanzfälschung verurteilt. Ihre Medienfirma EM.TV galt als Symbol für die rasante Erfolgsgeschichte des Neuen Marktes. Der Börsenwert stieg innerhalb von etwas mehr als zwei Jahren um 25 000 Prozent, das kleine Unternehmen war zwischenzeitlich mehr wert als die Lufthansa. Das Geschwisterpaar aus Pfaffenhofen schien nichts aufzuhalten. Doch die "Haffa-Jünger" halfen etwas nach. Bei den Halbjahreszahlen 2000 haben sie die Aktionäre vorsätzlich falsch über die wahre Lage des Unternehmens informiert und insgesamt rund 200 Millionen Mark zu viel Umsatz ausgewiesen. Durch unrealistische Geschäftsprognosen war der Aktienkurs in Schwindel erregende Höhen gestiegen. Und später kräftig abgestürzt. Schadenersatzklagen von Aktionären sind allerdings in mehr als 40 Verfahren abgewiesen worden.

Fast spiegelt die Liste der - zum Teil mutmaßlichen - Verfehlungen die Anzahl der Erfolgsgeschichten aus den Boomjahren wider. Paulus Neef lässt bei seinem Internet-Dienstleister Pixelpark die Umsatzerlöse explodieren und treibt das Unternehmen zu scheinbar enormem Reichtum durch den Börsenwert von über 3,4 Milliarden Euro. Dann stürzt die Aktie, und Neef verlässt nach dem Vorwurf der Vetternwirtschaft den Chefposten. Neef soll für die Schweizer ZLU-Gruppe einen überhöhten Preis bezahlt haben. Zu den ZLU-Gründern zählt Helmut Baumgarten, ein früherer Pixelpark-Investor und damals der Vater von Paulus Neefs Freundin. Inzwischen liegt eine Schadenersatzklage von Pixelpark gegen Neef vor.

Brisant dürfte auch der Augsburger Prozess gegen die beiden Infomatec-Manager Gerhard Harlos und Alexander Häfele werden, der in knapp zwei Wochen wieder aufgenommen wird. Die Staatsanwaltschaft hat eine ganze Reihe von Vorwürfen auf die Ex-Vorstände des Software-Hauses niedergehen lassen: Gründungsschwindel, Kapitalanlagebetrug und Insiderhandel. Das Unternehmen soll bei seinem Börsengang statt 100 Millionen Euro weniger als drei Millionen Euro wert gewesen sein.

Betrug, Fälschung und Insolvenzen: der tiefe Sturz der Wunderkinder (3)

Gerichte nehmen solche Anschuldigungen nicht auf die leichte Schulter und reagieren gerade bei Kursbetrug äußerst allergisch. So verbüßt derzeit der Gründer des Neue-Markt-Unternehmens Comroad, Bodo Schnabel, eine siebenjährige Freiheitsstrafe.

Er hatte rund 98 Prozent der Umsätze frei erfunden und einer Hongkonger Scheinfirma zugeschrieben. Vor drei Wochen sprach sogar das Landgericht Frankfurt einem Comroad-Anleger 7500 Euro zum Ausgleich für den abgestürzten Börsenkurs zu.

Ein seltener Fall: Meist gehen die Aktionäre leer aus.

Artikel erschienen am 15. Jun 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/06/15/118483.html

Furcht vor dem nächsten Crash

Dem Immobilienmarkt droht ein Einbruch. Die Mieten fallen, die Leerstände steigen. Die Folgen könnten auch für die Weltwirtschaft verheerend sein

von Ulrich Reitz und Matthias Wulff

Das eigene Haus wird zum Spekulationsobjekt. Foto: ddp

Nirgendwo ist die Krise auf dem deutschen Immobilienmarkt so offensichtlich wie an der Autobahnauffahrt in Frankfurts Osten. Eine ganze Bürostadt wird dort gerade aus dem Boden gestampft, mit Millioneninvestitionen offener Immobilienfonds. Auf der anderen Straßenseite stehen schon ganze Häuserzeilen. Und zwar leer. "Zu vermieten" steht auf riesigen Werbebannern, eines neben dem anderen. Ohne Erfolg. Für die riesigen Büroflächen will sich kein Nachmieter finden.

Die Immobilie, der Deutschen liebste, weil sicher geglaubte Geldanlage: Nach Zinsverfall und Aktienschwäche gerät auch sie jetzt ins Wanken.

Das Paradox: Es wird einfach weitergebaut, was das Angebot trotz sinkender Nachfrage vergrößert und die Krise verschärft. Selbst schuld.

Seit dem Crash am Aktienmarkt wissen die Immobilienfonds nicht, wohin mit ihrem Geld. 15 Milliarden Euro hatten Anleger allein im vergangenen Jahr in "Immo-Fonds" gepumpt.

Im ersten Quartal 2003 kamen noch einmal 7,1 Milliarden Euro dazu. Ein Ende des Zuflusses ist nicht in Sicht. Mieter, die in die todschicken, üppig verglasten und mit Stahlträgern verzierten Gebäude einziehen, jedoch ebenso wenig.

Gleichzeitig rutschen auf den meisten europäischen Büromärkten die Mieten nach unten, die Leerstände nehmen zu. So fielen im ersten Quartal 2003 nach einer Studie des Immobilienunternehmens IVG die Spitzenmieten auf 19 betrachteten europäischen Büromärkten gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal um 11,2 Prozent auf knapp 43 Euro pro Quadratmeter.

An den Preisverfall müssen sich die erfolgsverwöhnten Immobilienbesitzer erst einmal gewöhnen. In den vergangenen zehn Jahren hatten sie sich an erkleckliche Wertzuwächse gewöhnt. Das eigene Häuschen war nicht mehr nur Dach über dem Kopf. Es wurde Wertanlage und Spekulationsobjekt, das - auch erzwungen durch erhöhte Mobilität - öfter als früher den Besitzer wechselte. Doch armes Deutschland: Hier stagnierten die Preise, während sich seit 1995 die Häuserpreise in Irland verdreifachten, in Großbritannien und den Niederlanden verdoppelten und in Spanien und Schweden um zwei Drittel stiegen.

Immobilienfirmen und Ökonomen versprachen Großes: Schließlich seien die Zinsen gefallen und die Einkommen stiegen an, lautet das Standardargument. Begründungen, die einem bekannt vorkommen aus der Zeit des Börsenhypes. Als die Aktienmärkte immer neue Höchststände suchten, argumentierten die Optimisten auch lange damit, dass genügend Liquidität vorhanden sei. Aus dem Blick geraten war damals wie heute der Ertrag.

So wie vor wenigen Jahren sich der Kurs an den Aktienmärkten - und damit die Marktkapitalisierung, also der Wert eines Unternehmens - von den zu erwartenden Gewinnen an den Gütermärkten abkoppelte, so stiegen bis vor kurzem in vielen Ländern die Eigenheimpreise viel stärker als die künftigen Mieteinnahmen.

Das Wirtschaftswachstum ist in vielen Ländern mau, die Angst vor Arbeitslosigkeit nimmt immer weiter zu, die Realeinkommen stagnieren oder steigen nur leicht. Keine Zeit für Häuslebauer. Trotz historisch niedriger Zinsen haben sie zum Erwerb eines Eigenheimes keine rechte Lust. Allein in Deutschland haben sich die Baugenehmigungen nach einer Erhebung des Maklerverbandes RDM seit 1995 nahezu halbiert.

Furcht vor dem nächsten Crash (2)

Der Ausblick für gewerbliche Immobilien ist nicht minder trist: Europaweit hat die Angst vor einem Flop dem Existenzgründer-Boom den Garaus gemacht. Die Jahre, in denen Firmen nicht wussten, wohin mit ihren Angestellten, sind längst vorbei.

Die Angst vor einer Immobilienblase steigt und steigt.

"Die Leerstände werden mindestens bis zum Ende des kommenden Jahres weitersteigen", warnt Douglas Holoch, Deutschland-Chef des weltgrößten Immobilienunternehmens Jones Lang LaSalle. Und Kunden, die sich für neue Büroflächen interessieren, gebe es nur selten. Holoch: "Die Mietnachfrage geht auch in den kommenden Monaten weiter zurück."

Der Mietspiegel fällt und fällt. Selbst neue Häuser sind für weniger als 20 Euro pro Quadratmeter zu haben. Vor drei Jahren noch wurden 50 Euro und mehr erzielt.

Die Immobilienpreise fallen laut Holoch aber noch nicht: "Weil die Investoren mit nachhaltigen Mieten kalkulieren, steht ein Wertberichtigungsbedarf zurzeit nicht an." Die Branche hofft auf bessere Zeiten und weiß, dass das eine Zitterpartie ist. Immobilenmärkte sind Spätzünder im konjunkturellen Verlauf. Und je länger der Aufschwung auf sich warten lässt, desto mehr fürchten sie eine Abwärtsspirale auf Grund des erhöhten Preisdrucks.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Die Stimmung unter den Immobilienprofis ist spürbar schlecht. Selbst die Allgemeine Deutsche Direktbank (DiBa) in Frankfurt warnte jetzt vor den Gefahren des Immobilienbooms. Die Geldschwemme, so die Banker, berge für offene Fonds immerhin "auch Gefahren".

Im Ausland sehen die Profis noch Potenzial. In Deutschland allerdings nicht: "Von den 25 boomenden Immobilienstandorten liegen nur fünf in Europa", stellt Jones-Lang-LaSalle-Direktor Holoch fest. "Deutschland kommt bei den boomenden Standorten schon gar nicht mehr vor."

"Das Einstiegsniveau in Deutschland ist viel zu hoch", sagt auch Thomas Beyerle, Immobilienexperte der Dresdner Bank. Die Rückkehr auf Normalwerte stehe bevor.

Auch der private Wohnungsmarkt kommt zunehmend unter Druck. "Die Entwicklung setzte bereits in den neunziger Jahren ein", sagt Peter-Georg Wagner, Leiter Marktforschung beim Branchenverband RDM. Vor allem beim Verkauf von Wohnimmobilien in unattraktiven Lagen müssten die Eigentümer "Verluste realisieren".

Die Faustregel "Ein Haus für immer" gelte nicht mehr: "Wir stellen verstärkt einen Trend zu Lebensabschnittsimmobilien fest."

Immobilien-Bubble? Gefahr für die Weltwirtschaft? Bei der Bu…

Robert Shiller von der renommierten Yale-Universität in New Haven, USA, ist da skeptischer:

Auch nicht richtig beruhigend." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Wenn die Immobilienpreise deutlich sinken, schließe ich negative Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft nicht aus", sagt er. Vor allem in den USA sieht der Ökonom dafür Potenzial. "Es besteht das Risiko einer deutlichen Rezession, weil es durch sinkende Immobilienpreise zu einem negativen Wohlstandseffekt kommt", sagt Shiller. Fällt die Stimmung in den USA, werde auch Europa von dieser Entwicklung angesteckt. "Die Chance, dass das bereits im kommenden Jahr geschieht, liegt bei weniger als 50 Prozent." Auch nicht richtig beruhigend.

Artikel erschienen am 15. Jun 2003

[Der_Glueckliche]

o.k., Thai Guru, jetzt weiss ich auf diesen 3weg wiegross ein Kontrakt ist. Habe doch um KOrrektur gebeten!

Ein KOntrakt sind 100 Unzen, das heisst die Spekulanten sind netto 10 Millionen Unzen long, die Profis dementsprechend 10 Millionen Unzen short.

Weltjahresumsatz in physischem Gold sind 100 Millionen Unzen.

Das heisst, die Spekulanten sind netto ungefähr 10% vom Jahresumsatz an Gold weltweit long.

Tagesumsatz dürfte bei 200 Werktagen pro Jahr ungefähr 2 Millionen Unzen sein. In umsatzschwachen Hochpreisphasen auch wesentlich weniger.

Es kostet also die Profis in den entsprechenden Phasen, in denen wenig Gold gekauft wird, nur wenig (ausleihen von Gold, dies auf den Markt werfen, um den Preis zu drücken, die Profite aus den Termingeschäften einstreichen, anschliessend langsam wieder Gold einsammeln, um es zurückzuzahlen) um einen relativ sicheren Gewinn aus den dummen Spekulanten zu ziehen, die wie eine Hammelherde den Gold-to-the-moon-Propheten nachrennen.

Dieser Gewinn fällt um so leichter, je mehr Spekulanten Calls auf den Goldpreis kaufen und im Verhältnis dazu wenig echtes, anfassbares Gold.

So, Thai Guru, jetzt sagst Du mir, [richtig oder falsch?[/b] Und komme mir nicht mit Verschwörung und so einen Quatsch. Das ist einfach der Markt.

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Glückliche

Wenn ein Goldpessimist wie Du, sich in diesen Thread verirrst, und auf Grund Deines Nichtwissens, 2x eine Falschmeldung verbreitest, solltest Du eigentlich als Rechtfertigung schon etwas mehr bieten, als nur eine von Dir jetzt um 90% reduzierte Angabe zu den Shortpositionen der Specs, und einem Geschwafel von "umsatzschwachen Hochpreisphasen", und weiteren falschen Angaben und Mutmassungen zu Goldumsätzen an der Comex, oder LBMA, solltest Du mal besser eine Quellenangabe dazu posten.

Bei Barrick, oder JPM haben Leute Deiner Denkart, und Präzision vielleicht Chancen Karriere zu machen, frag doch dort mal an!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.cnn.com/2003/06/12/pf/banking/new_two_bill/

The return of the $2 bill

An oft-forgotten note may soon be put back into the spotlight.

By Gordon T. Anderson, CNN/Money Contributing Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Very few people use it. Merchants and cab drivers are never quite sure what to do with it. And although its history pre-dates American independence, the average citizen may not even know it exists.

But the $2 bill may soon have another 15 minutes of fame.

Moneymakers in Washington are contemplating printing a new series of the $2 bill, which is by far the least-used small note in circulation. The last time the notes were issued was in 1996 (it bears a 1995 series stamp), when about 164 million were made.



Since then, supplies of the notes kept in the Federal Reserve`s vaults have dwindled down to about 9.5 million. To replenish that low inventory, the government is considering a re-issue during the coming fiscal year, which begins October 1.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The Fed orders currency annually based on demand," explains Fed spokesman David Skidmore. "We have not placed an order yet for new $2 bills, but we are definitely considering it."

The current $2 bill bears the likeness of Thomas Jefferson on the front, and a scene of the signing of the Declaration of Independence on the back. The first series with Jefferson`s portrait appeared in 1928. But the $2 bill as a currency unit goes back to June 25, 1776, when the Continental Congress ordered the first series in the denomination.

Since the $2 bill hasn`t been printed in eight years, it`s natural that a reprinting would one day be necessary. "Even for a bill that isn`t used that much," says Skidmore, "over time there`s enough demand that inventories eventually wind down."

If the Fed does decide to order a new series, one thing is certain: there won`t be a redesign, like the imminent colorized $20 note. "We`re not going to redesign the note," says Claudia Dickens, a spokeswoman for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. "That`s definite."

Although the note will look the same, the series year would change to 2003. It would also bear the signature of the current Treasurer of the United States, Rosario Marin. (Although Marin has announced her resignation, the honor remains hers if the order is made this year.)

Still, a new series and the attendant publicity are unlikely to push the $2 into wider usage. "For most people, the $2 bill is a novelty," says Tom DeLorey, a spokesman for the Chicago-based numismatic firm Harlan J. Berk, Ltd. "They just don`t use it much."

As a currency enthusiast, however, DeLorey keeps a bunch of the bills in his wallet. "This morning, I gave one to a cab driver," he says. "He looked at it kind of funny, then tucked it away in his pocket as a keepsake."

Saving, not spending, seems to be what most people do with them.

That won`t change unless the government does something drastic. "The only way the $2 bill is going to circulate widely is if the government stops issuing the $1 bill," says DeLorey.

That`s doubtful. "Treasury`s official position is that we like the $1 bill, the $2 bill, and the dollar coin," Dickens says. "We intend to keep issuing all of them."

[ThaiGuru]

06-14-2003 07:53

In answer to a doubter who said
gold will not reach $400
Mahendra said --

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

Mahendra-comments

Most people on this site know that gold will go north of 2500 an ounce in the near future. 5 to 10 years.

I am very certain 400 will be broken this August. I cannot say what event or what will cause a panic in Gold buying but it looks like this will happen with dramatic price rises either near the end of this year or the beginning of next year when finally gold catches on.

Fong. Gold is undervalued at these prices because of many factors. That is why one can become wealthy off of investing in gold.

Here are the reasons:

1. Due to the Gold Carry trade ( Selling borrowed Gold and buying US treasuries ) Gold is extremely undervalued.

2. No paper currency has lasted longer then Silver and Gold as a monetary medium of exchange.


3. As all cyclical manias in history Gold will be no different. We will probably go to extremes in prices of both Gold and Silver as we did in the Stock Markets.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">4. If Gold doubles in price it does not mean bread will double in price. If Gold was fair value "right now" i.e. currencies back by this metal, it should be worth at least $3000 an ounce based on just the GDP of the US economy. If you include all economies it should be worth more.

5. From what I have heard the cost to mine averages about 290 an ounce globally. Therefore, the lower the price of Gold the less supply on the market.

"He who owns the gold makes the rules"

[ThaiGuru]

Also wenn Merrill Lynch nun schon selbst 1 Tonne physisches Gold über ihren World Mining Investment Trust (LSE:MLW) gekauft hat, sollte man eigentlich annehmen, dass man nicht daneben liegt, falls man sich selbst auch etwas mit physischem Gold eindeckt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://m1.mny.co.za/MGLdn.nsf/Current/8525690B0032142042256D…

Gold trust buys into bullion

By: Ken Gooding

Posted: 2003/06/15 Sun 15:03 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

LONDON – Merrill Lynch World Mining Investment Trust (LSE:MLW) has bought nearly a tonne of gold bullion to add to its portfolio. At the beginning of May the portfolio contained not a single ounce of the yellow metal.
This suggests the Trust, which has a full London Stock Exchange listing, spent more than £6.5m on gold, or roughly US$10m, during May. At the end of last month 2.7 percent of its total assets of £243.4m were accounted for by the bullion.

Graham Birch, managing director, sector funds, at Merrill in London, says the purchase was triggered by the fall in the value of the US dollar against other trading currencies which in turn boosted the gold price to $370 an ounce at one stage.

“We look at gold (bullion) as cash. It’s just a different type of cash,” he explains. However, Birch also insists that gold is not an exact proxy for the dollar because “as gold falls by one percent, gold is likely to rise by 2 percent.”

Birch adds: “Gold is not a bad investment at the moment. At $355 an ounce the price is not astonishingly high. There is plenty of scope for it to rise. We no longer see (gold producing) companies popping up to hedge as the price goes up and neither are central banks selling. That’s why we have an upward trending market.”

He also has expectations that liberalisation of the gold market in China will help investment buying – “that will mean a quarter of the world’s population will be able to buy gold bars.” Also, the new securitised gold products, some backed by the World Gold Council, should help lift demand. “The average US institution has zero gold at present. These products will enable them to have some.”

At the end of May the Trust had 26.1percent of total assets devoted to shares in gold producers. This compared with 33.4 percent in diversified mining groups, 19.2 percent in base metals producers and 9 percent in platinum companies.

During last month the Trust bought shares in Placer Dome, the Canadian group, for the first time, obviously encouraged by Placer unwinding its hedging positions. The Trust usually invests only in unhedged gold companies.

It also increased its holding in Ashanti Gold Fields, “with fortuitous timing, given that AngloGold announced a planned bid for that company shortly afterwards,” says Birch.

Nevertheless, there are only three gold mining groups in the list of the Trust’s top ten investments: Buenaventura, the Peruvian company, accounts for 7 percent of total assets; South Africa’s Gold Fields 6.8 percent and Harmony 5 percent.

Other companies in the list are: BHP Billiton (6.4 percent of total assets); Impala Platinum (6 percent); CVRD (4.9 percent); Rio Tinto (4.9 percent) Aber Diamonds (4.9 percent); Falconbridge (3.9 percent) and Inco (3.5 percent).

At the weekend the Trust was still trying to solve the mystery of a Dow Jones report that suggested Merrill Lynch had, in a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), indicated it had sold nearly 5m Buenaventura shares and reduced its total holding in the Peruvian company from 5.4 percent at the end of December to 1.97 percent by May 31.

Birch says neither the Trust nor the Merrill Lynch Gold and General Fund, a London based unit trust (or mutual fund), had sold Buevaventura shares and between them they owned more than 1.97 percent of the latter group.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank, on behalf of associates and clients, has been buying more shares in the World Mining Trust, adding over 500,000 in the second half of last week. This will have cost more than £600,000. The Trust share price ended on Friday at 125.5p to give it a market value of about £204m.

After this buying spree, Deutsche associates and clients own 13.34 percent of the Mining Trust, a stake worth about £27m.

[unkraut]

@ThaiGuru,
kann den Kommentar von Mahendra auf
der Hompage nicht finden.

[tecboy]

Hallo ThaiGuru,
ist nicht nach den Regeln der Charttechnik ein aufsteigendes Dreieck bearish zu werten? Dies würde ja für den HUI-Index bedeuten, dass zukünftig niegrigere Kurse zu erwarten sind. Was meint ihr?

[ThaiGuru]

@tecboy

Bin eigentlich nicht die beste Adresse für Fragen zur charttechnischen Bedeutung eines "Aufsteigenden Dreiecks", da gibt es besser qualifizierte User im Gold Board.

Trotzdem eine Antwort:

"Aufsteigendes Dreieck"

Diese Formation der technischen Analyse weist auf einen bevorstehenden Kursanstieg hin. Die Tops (Kursspitzen) bleiben dabei ungefähr auf gleicher Höhe, wogegen die Bottoms (Kurstiefpunkte) von Kursbewegung zu Kursbewegung höher liegen. Verbindet man jeweils die Tops und die Bottoms mit einer Linie, so entsteht ein aufwärts gerichtetes Dreieck. Wenn man nun am ersten Top einen Strich zur unteren Geraden zieht, dann kann man erkennen, wie hoch der zu erwartende Kursanstieg ausfällt.
Gegenteil: Absteigendes Dreieck

http://www.excalibur-finanz.de/html/service/glossar.cfm#48

[mickym [VIP]]

Hi @tecboy

Ein Dreieck (nicht zu verwechseln mit einem Keil) hat grundsätzlich immer trendbestätigenden Charakter (egal in welcher Richtung), d.h. im HUI aufwärtsgerichtet.

In der Regel ist das Kursziel die Höhe des Dreiecks an die Dreiecksspitze angelegt.

Meines Erachtens geht es nochmal kurz runter, um dann die Spitze zu bilden und dann nach oben durchzubrechen.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

@unkraut

Die von mir veröffentlichte Meldung, stammt aus dem KITCO Board von heute. Konnte die Meldung selber auf der Homepage von Mahendra auch nicht vorfinden. Das liegt wohl daran, dass Mahendra den grössten Teil seiner Seite, inklusive seiner News Flashs nur noch "Members" zugänglich macht.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

5`000`000 Arbeitslose bis zum Winter 2003!

In diesem Thread wurde dies bereits schon vor über einem Jahr angekündigt.

Jetzt endlich scheint es auch der erste Regierungs Politiker zu erkennen, dass es nix wird mit Wirtschafts-Aufschwung.

Gruss

ThaiGuru


Joschka Fischer warnte auf dem Parteitag als erstes Regierungsmitglied vor fünf Mill. Arbeitslosen im WinterFoto: dpa



Grüne wollen Vermögensteuer einführen

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/16/119162.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/16/118880.html

Der "neuen Blase" entweicht etwas Luft

von Martin Halusa

New York - Nach einer drei Monate dauernden Jagd, in denen die Aktienkurse um mehr als 20 Prozent gestiegen sind, ist den Bullen an der New Yorker Börse erst einmal die Puste ausgegangen. Die drei großen US-Indizes gingen nahezu unverändert ins Wochenende. Und Wall Street befürchtet, dass die Börse in dieser Woche auf Talfahrt gehen könnte.

Grund hierfür sind sowohl schlechte Nachrichten, die von den Unternehmen kommen könnten, als auch wenig erfreuliche Meldungen vom Zustand der Volkswirtschaft. Analysten in New York erwarten sogar, dass die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve bei ihrer nächsten Sitzung am 24. und 25. Juni die Zinsen senken wird. Bewegungen auf dem Futures-Markt deuten bereits darauf hin, dass Fed-Chef Alan Greenspan die Federal Funds Rate um 50 Basispunkte absenken könnte. Derzeit steht der Satz für die Kurzfristzinsen bei 1,25 Prozent und damit auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit mehr als 40 Jahren.

An der Börse heißt es, die Kurse seien in den vergangenen Monaten zu schnell und zu hoch gestiegen. Einige Händler sprechen schon von einer Blase, die die Fundamentaldaten nicht rechtfertigten. Deshalb wird es in diesem Jahr wohl nicht zu einer Sommerrallye kommen. Im Gegenteil: Wertpapierexperten wie Richard Bernstein von Merrill Lynch vergleichen die hohen Kurse sogar mit dem Boom des Jahres 2000. "Wir glauben, dass der Blase derzeit Luft entweicht", sagt Bernstein.

Der Dow Jones erhöhte sich in der abgelaufenen Woche um ,6 Prozent und steht nun bei 9117,12 Punkten. Die Nasdaq und der Standard & Poors-500 stiegen um jeweils ,1 Prozent. Am Freitag waren die Kurse deutlich zurückgegangen, nachdem die Universität von Chicago ihren Index über die Stimmung der Verbraucher vorgelegt hatte. Das Barometer ist im Juni überraschend und stark gesunken - von 92,1 auf 87,2 Punkte. Ökonomen hatten einen kleinen Anstieg auf 93 Zähler erwartet und sind nun enttäuscht. Der Index könnte ein Hinweis darauf sein, dass sich der Aufschwung doch nicht so darstellt, wie dies bislang für das zweite Halbjahr vorhergesagt worden war.

Diese Woche dürfte nähere Auskunft über die Lage der Konjunktur bringen. Am Dienstag steht die Veröffentlichung der Inflationsrate an. Schon die Produzentenpreise waren im Mai um ,3 Prozent gesunken, was die Diskussion über die drohende Deflation weiter angeheizt hat. Zudem stehen die Baubeginne von Häusern, die Realeinkommen und die Industrieproduktion auf dem ökonomischen Kalender. Am Donnerstag erwartet Wall Street den Index über die ökonomischen Frühindikatoren, die das New Yorker Institut Conference Board vorlegen wird. Analysten glauben, dass sich der Index geringfügig verbessert hat. Bei den Unternehmen stehen die Quartalszahlen mehrerer Unternehmen an, darunter die der Investmentbank Morgan Stanley, die Chipherstellers Micon Technology und der Handelskette Circuit City.

Die Banken blicken darüber hinaus auf den 20. Juni. An diesem Tag müssen die Chefs einiger New Yorker Großbanken den Ermittlungsbehörden Dokumente, Emails und Aktenordner übergeben. Zu den Managern, die Auskunft geben müssen, gehören Sanford Weill von Citigroup und der Ex-CEO von Credit Suisse First Boston, Allan Wheat. Die Börsenaufsicht wirft den Bankern unter anderem vor, massiven Einfluss auf die Berichte und Bewertungen von Analysten ausgeübt zu haben. Erst vor einigen Wochen hatten sich die großen Banken mit Börsenaufsicht und Staatsanwaltschaft auf die Zahlung von 1,4 Mrd. Dollar geeinigt. Die Behörden hatten den Finanzinstituten vorgeworfen, "irreführende Analystenberichte" abgegeben zu haben.

Artikel erschienen am 16. Jun 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Auf eine neue goldene Woche!

[Biotechperle]

#6019

Nach neuen Wegen gegen den Abschwung wird schon gesucht,
unsere hochbezahlten "Manager" sind da recht einfallsreich.


Walter: Bezahlten Urlaub abschaffen

Der Deutsche-Bank-Chefvolkswirt Walter hat sich für die Abschaffung der Bezahlung von Urlaubs- und Feiertagen ausgesprochen, um Lohnnebenkosten zu senken.
"Wer aber Feiertag und Urlaub über alles schätzt, soll sie haben - freilich ohne noch Bezahlung zu empfangen."Davon profitierten Arbeitgeber, die im globalisierten Markt konkurrenzfähig blieben, und Arbeitnehmer,die ihren Job behielten, sagte Walter den "Stuttgarter Nachrichten" laut einem Vorab-Bericht.
Der Präsident der Deutschen Industrieund Handelskammer Braun schloss sich den Forderungen Walters nicht an. <<

http://www.ard-text.de/videotext/index.html?tafel=707

Gruß
Bio

[ThaiGuru]

10:28p ET Sunday, June 15, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While the financial world speculates about gold,
GATA consultant Reg Howe once again digs
out the source material and reports the facts.

In his new commentary tonight, titled "Not
Your Father`s Gold Market," Howe analyzes the
latest figures on gold derivatives as reported
by the Bank for International Settlements and
the U.S. Treasury Department`s Office of the
Comptroller of the Currency.

He concludes that gold derivatives -- paper gold,
promises to pay gold -- are exploding even as
mining companies are sharply reducing their
hedging positions.

Howe writes: reported official gold reserves. Yet, although the
data on gold derivatives reported by the BIS
represents the only publicly available information
compiled on the global gold market according
to a published methodology by a presumably
reliable source, neither the World Gold Council
nor Gold Fields Minerals Services appears to
make any effort to try to reconcile their statistics
on global gold flows with the BIS figures."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"At over 30,000 tonnes, total gold derivatives are now approximately equal to total
reported official gold reserves. Yet, although the
data on gold derivatives reported by the BIS
represents the only publicly available information
compiled on the global gold market according
to a published methodology by a presumably
reliable source, neither the World Gold Council
nor Gold Fields Minerals Services appears to
make any effort to try to reconcile their statistics
on global gold flows with the BIS figures."

There`s only one way to read the data:

That the central banks have thrown most of their gold at the market in a desperate effort to suppress the
price, to channel investment demand for gold into
paper gold rather than the real thing, and to
prevent people from escaping the bank-controlled
paper economy, and that the banks don`t have
much gold left.

Howe`s new commentary is bound to be the most
important examination of the gold market for
some time. It is admirably complemented by
charts drawn by GATA consultant Mike Bolser.
It is the antidote for the disinformation that
surrounds the gold market. You can find it at
Howe`s Golden Sextant Internet site here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary25.html#anchor168813

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/203

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

----------------------------------------------------

To subscribe to GATA`s dispatches, send an e-mail to:

[e-mail]

To unsubscribe, send an e-mail to:

[e-mail]

----------------------------------------------------

RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD
AND PRECIOUS METALS
NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Free sites:

http://www.jsmineset.com

http://www.mineweb.com/

http://www.gold-eagle.com/

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.usagold.com/

http://www.GoldSeek.com/

http://www.goldenbar.com/

http://www.silver-investor.com

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/

http://www.sharelynx.net

http://www.mininglife.com/

http://www.financialsense.com

http://www.goldensextant.com

http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html

http://www.depression2.tv

http://moneyfiles.org/

http://www.minersmanual.com/minernews.html

http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.h…


Subscription site:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

Eagle Ranch discussion site:

http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm

----------------------------------------------------

COIN AND PRECIOUS METALS DEALERS
WHO HAVE SUPPORTED GATA
AND BEEN RECOMMENDED
BY OUR MEMBERS

Centennial Precious Metals
3033 East 1st Ave.
Suite 403
Denver, Colorado 80206
www.USAGold.com
Michael Kosares, Proprietor
US [phone]
Canada 1-800-294-9462
European Union 00-800-2760-2760
Australia 0011-800-2760-2760
[e-mail]


Colorado Gold
222 South 5th St.
Montrose, Colorado 81401
www.ColoradoGold.com
Don Stott, Proprietor
1-888-786-8822
[e-mail]


Investment Rarities Inc.
7850 Metro Parkwa
Minneapolis, Minnesota 55425
http://www.gloomdoom.com
Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager
1-800-328-1860, Ext. 8889
[e-mail]


Lee Certified Coins
P.O. Box 1045
454 Daniel Webster Highway
Merrimack, New Hampshire 03054
www.certifiedcoins.com
Ed Lee, Proprietor
1-800-835-6000
[e-mail]


Miles Franklin Ltd.
3015 Ottawa Ave. South
St. Louis Park, Minn. 55416
1-800-822-8080 / 952-929-1129
fax: [phone]
http://www.milesfranklin.com
Contacts: David Schectman,
Andy Schectman, and Bob Sichel


Resource Consultants Inc.
6139 South Rural Road
Suite 103
Tempe, Arizona 85283-2929
Pat Gorman, Proprietor
1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877
[e-mail]


Swiss America Trading Corp.
15018 North Tatum Blvd.
Phoenix, Arizona 85032
http://www.buycoin.com
Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker
1-800-BUY-COIN
[e-mail]

----------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Das gesammte Zentralbanken Gold weg?

Es sieht immer mehr danach aus!

Reg Howe versucht in seiner neuesten Studie genau dieses Szenario, anhand von offiziellen Zahlen aufzuzeigen, und zu belegen.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Wenn`s stimmt, dann gute Nacht "Fiat Money" besitzer!

Physisches Gold, strong buy!!!!!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary25.html#anchor168813

June 15, 2003.

Not Your Father`s Gold Market


.

.

.

.

[keepitshort]

#6007
der Artikel war wirklich gut
denn die deutsche Mentalität ist doch noch immer
einen Bausparvertrag und ein Häuschen bauen
und dann reichts hinten und vorne nicht mehr
da man etwas zu grosszügig den Kredit aufgenommen hat.

Nirgendwo ist die Krise auf dem deutschen Immobilienmarkt so offensichtlich wie an der Autobahnauffahrt in Frankfurts Osten. Eine ganze Bürostadt wird dort gerade aus dem Boden gestampft, mit Millioneninvestitionen offener Immobilienfonds. Auf der anderen Straßenseite stehen schon ganze Häuserzeilen. Und zwar leer.

[Stosstrupp_Gold]

#6025

Was meint Ihr wohl warum ich Anfang letzten Jahres aus der Immobilienbranche ausgestiegen bin?....Wenn die Herren in Hamburg mit ihren stadtteilintegrierten Shopping-Centern und Großraumbüros mit Loftcharakter Geld vernichten wollen, OK...es lag nicht in meiner Macht sie davon abzubringen. Allerdings sehe ich auch nicht ein, meine Unterschrift unter derartige Wirtschaftlichkeitsberechnungen aus Wolkenkuckucksheim zu setzen...

Nächsten Monat ist Einweihung von dem Gerümpel...ich sollte mal vorbeifahren und mir die Misere anschauen...

[Der_Glueckliche]

@ Thaiguru: Bin kein Goldpessimist, nur, wenn allerorten von `Gold im August 400`, `Gold 2004 bei 1000` und `morgen die ganze Welt` gefaselt wird, dann muss doch einer dagegen halten! (wenn schon Wardriver nicht posten kann, weil er gerade eine Entziehungskur macht. )

Wenn die Zahlen stimmen, die Du vorhin gepostet hast, dann sind die Terminpositionen 10mal so gross wie der echte Goldmarkt!

Was das wohl für den Goldpreis bedeutet?

Bisjetzt hat sich jedenfalls der Goldpreis nicht vom Euro abgekoppelt, statt Barren zu kaufen hätte man auch das Geld in der Matratze verstecken können, wäre auf`s Gleiche `rausgekommen, die An-und Verkaufskosten beim Gold hätte man sich dazu noch gespart

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Glückliche

Fragen über Fragen!

Wenn ich mir Dein früheres Geschwafel, und Falschaussagen im WBoard so anschaue, staune ich eigentlich etwas darüber wie schnell Du Dich zum "Gold Analysten" entwickelt haben willst.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Hallo, Leute! Habe...... meine VWStämme verkauft und Goldminenaktien gekauft, läuft ja prächtig. Laut so nem Beitrag wurden weltweit in den letzten Jahren so um die 2000 Tonnen Gold aus dem Sand gesiebt. Wer hat es gekauft? Wo liegt es? Bei vielen Familien als Sicherheit? gibt es weltweit? Wo liegt es?"

"Viele Fragen. Vielleicht weiß einer ne Antwort, dann wissen…[/b][/b]

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Wo kann man Silberbarren oder -münzen möglichst günstig und falls möglich ohne Mehrwertsteuer erwerben? Wer weiß was?"

Noch am 23. März 2003 hast Du einen Thread eröffnet mit dem Titel:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "Wie und wo kann ich Futures handeln?" Thread-Nr.: 711330

Weisst Du wenigstens jetzt heute, wo Du Gold Futures handeln kannst?

Einem Zitat von SFK in einem andern Falle von falschen Behauptungen von Dir, möchte ich mich voll anschliessen, weil es treffender nicht gesagt werden kann:


Als Du glücklicher die Schule besucht hast, war das möglicherweise umsonst." " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "Als ich die Schule besucht habe, so war das kostenlos.

Als Du glücklicher die Schule besucht hast, war das möglicherweise umsonst."

[Der_Glueckliche]

oho, Guru viel böse!

Ist es zu heiss bei Dir da unten, das Du so ausrastest?

Hier ist es angenehm, sitze im Schatten und ein laues Lüftchen weht!

Weil Du mich so schön korrigiert hast bezüglichg der Ko ntraktgrösse(ich habe übrigens, wie Du in meinem Posting lesen kannst, um Korrektur gebeten, da ich mir bezüglich der Kontraktgrösse nicht sicher war)werde ich mich eben ein wenig verteidigen.

Habe nur gesagt, wenn die COTs zum grossen Teil(über 100.000 Kontrakte) netto short sind, dass dann der Goldpreis in kurzer Zeit darauf fällt. Das war in der Vergangenheit sehr häufig so. Stand 10.6. 93.000 Kontrakte netto short. Goldpreis ist dann ja auch von Anfang Juni(119.000 Kontrakte netto short) an gefallen. Wie die COTs gerade stehen weiss ich nicht.

Das war keine Falschaussage, sondern das war so.

Und die Info, dass Indien in der Hochpreisphase(370 Dollar) Gold nicht importierte sondern recyclte habe ich irgendwo hier aus diesem Board.

Mit SBK ging es um Solarzellen, die, wenn man sie dieses Jahr noch auf`s Dach schnallt, nach der Finanzierungszeit(ca. 20 Jahre oder so) dann Strom umsonst oder eben gratis liefern. Was ebenfalls keine Falschaussage ist.

Also, cool down!

[empuge]

Kann mir jemand sagen, warum der Kurs von Delgratia Mining sich vom 10.6. auf den 13.6.03 verdreifacht hat?

[erdede]

man kann sagen was man will, die CABAL hat die Sache einfach gut im Griff....
erdede

[Wavetrader]

#6031: Findest du?

Ich finde die Stärke des Goldes angesichts der KRÄFTIGEN und mittlerweile 3 Monate alten Rallye beachtlich, das Gleiche gilt für die Goldminen-Indizes.

Was passiert erst, wenn die Märkte wieder deutlicher konsolidieren?

[erdede]

@Wavetrader,

sicherlich, die Stärke verbesserte sich etwas in der letzten Zeit, aber von einer Rallye kann längst nicht gesprochen werden. Wenn Du die Tagescharts Dir anschaust, sind die Eingriffe sehr deutlich sichtbar (z.B. Pfinstausflug - heutiger Tag)und unter Berücksichtigung des Euros und Dollars, hat sich die Korellation verschlechtert.
Das zeigt mir das die CABAL eben immer noch das Zepter fest in der Hand hält. Eine w e s e n t l i c h e Verbesserung ist noch nicht zu sehen.
erdede

[Wavetrader]

Da habe ich mich wohl missverständlich ausgedrückt.

Ich meinte "angesichts der kräftigen Rallye von Nasdaq/Dow & Co."!

Du musst dir die Goldentwicklung im Vergleich zu den anderen Märkten ansehen.

Wenn die Standard-Indizes steigen, wäre es eigentlich ein leichtes, Gold deutlich zu drücken, da die Nachfrage durch Umschichtungen in die Standard-Werte einbricht.

Und DAFÜR steht Gold doch prächtig da, ebenso natürlich der Euro.

[ThaiGuru]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1005013A%2…

PETER BRIMELOW
Gold`s resolve may be ominous

By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET June 16, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Happy (equity) days are here again? But gold is still suspiciously solid.

The stock market`s fairly steady upward march since -- well, March -- is tipping many market timers into bullishness, at least according to their long-stated markers. (See Mark Hulbert`s June 13 column).

The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index shows that the average equity exposure of the services monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest is 48.8 per cent -- positive, but not as alarmingly euphoric as in early May, when it was 54.7 percent, up 74 points since March. (See Mark Hulbert`s May 13 column).

And in fact, the Dow did mark time before beginning a new upward move this month.

Gold, by contrast, has been staggering since May.

But, as of Friday night, the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index [HGNSI] shows an average exposure of 34.62 percent, stoically in the middle of its historic range.

The gold timers were equally indifferent, on average, to bullion`s dramatic drop early last week, or to its partial recover late last week.

That`s quite impressive.

How would it be possible for gold to go up in the context of a sustained stock market rally?

One barbed explanation is offered by Investech`s James Stack:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Hellbent on avoiding a Japanese scenario (after Japan`s bubble burst in 1989), Alan Greenspan & Co. are driving real interest rates, after inflation, deep into negative territory. They`re making it so unattractive to hold onto cash that it`s fueling a buying frenzy in any hard asset -- including real estate, gold and stocks of US corporations. This is not the kind of bull market which we find most comfortable."

Stack has long been famous for his bearishness. Recently he has become bullish. But he believes that strength nevertheless may persist in gold, so "we may be increasing our allocation in gold stocks (Newmont Mining) or a precious metals fund."

In other words, the stock market may go up... for a while. But happy days may not necessarily last -- except perhaps for gold.

A similar complexity appears in the work of Martin Pring, author of the bible for this generation of technicians, "Technical Analysis Explained."

Pring gave up on gold when it broke below $360 -- for now. But he has just commented in his Weekly Update service:

"Last week the Gold Share/Gold Ratio broke decisively above a 1-year down trendline. This means that the shares are now likely to outperform the metal. We regard this as a bullish sign for the point when the anticipated correction in the yellow metal has run its course and prices again make an attempt on the $400 area."

And them there`s Dow Theory Letters` Richard Russell. As always.

Not the least of this stellar septuagenarian`s remarkable skills is that he thinks about the U.S. dollar exchange rate and its impact on the financial markets -- a great gap in the thinking of both Wall Street and (unusually) the investment letter subculture.

Russell says flatly that" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "the KEY to the picture is the dollar. If the dollar holds up or declines `lightly and politely,` then the Fed can keep the show going. But if the dollar starts falling apart, the all bets are off."

If gold had reciprocated the dollar`s decline since the beginning of the year, it would now be about $383 an ounce. Maybe that`s why the bulls are calm.

Another entertaining thought: " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">On Friday, Russell repeated his long-time forecast that "before this bear market is over, one share of the Dow will buy close to one ounce of gold."

He also said that in the 1970s. And it nearly came true.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/SAGolds/1055770372.php



Three Positive Factors for Gold

By: Daan Joubert , Gold Signals, saGOLDS.com

Several new developments – other than the factors discussed two weeks ago – over the past few weeks are very positive for the gold price.

The first is of particular interest and source of enjoyment for the author, who has for a long time met ridicule from various quarters when the topic of official intervention in the gold market is raised. For a long time during the 90’s, even when knowing full well that the gold market was not trading normally, the author still could not accept that there was what can only be described as a full blown conspiracy among various players – including the bullion and central banks – to keep a lid on the gold price.

However, during the past 3 years and more, it became clear to even this sceptic that the conspiracy was not only alive and well, but also succeeding admirably in their efforts to contain the price of gold. Yet the evidence is largely circumstantial; on being informed of what facts are available, most people thought it a joke and responded either by saying nobody could think that Greenspan and his peers would stoop so low as to manipulate the gold price or by stating that anyone who enters a market influences the price in some way and if the bullion banks can make money by shorting the gold market, well, good luck to them. It’s a free market.

Opinion on the court case that Blanchard – the US precious metals dealers – have lodged against JP Morgan and Barrick gold mine on the basis that they have colluded to lower the gold price, must run heavily in favour of Blanchard winning the suit. Otherwise the lawyers for JPM and Barrick would not have dared to risk the plea that the suit should be dismissed on the grounds that other parties, to wit the central banks, are members of the whole consortium which includes JPM and Barrick. Since central banks enjoy sovereign immunity they cannot be brought to court and thus, since major participants in what can now only be perceived as a conspiracy are not in the dock, the case has to be dismissed.

This is a brief and simple summation of the plea, but it conveys the important information that the lawyers acting on behalf of JPM and Barrick as much as admitted to collusion on a grand scale – conspiracy! – exactly what GATA and its supporters have said for so long and for which views GATA are regarded as way out nuts by the regular media in the US. And many others.

As this news gets digested, two things may happen; some investors might withdraw from the gold market in the belief that the central banks will succeed indefinitely in keeping gold down. Others will know that over the longer term the free market always wins and that gold therefore today offers an opportunity for vast profits, once it breaks free of the stranglehold. It is only a matter of time, since it is already evident that the supply of gold needed to keep a lid on the market is running low.

This news comes on top of more than one class action suit filed by Barrick shareholders who believe they were lied to when Barrick quoted operational problems to explain some recent poor results. They now believe it is the higher gold price that is making Barrick’s gold hedges unprofitable that is the real reason for the poor performance, not operational problems.

The JPM plea, which has been turned down by the judge, will be grist on their mill and strengthen their own suits for damages. With Barrick now having to really mind its step – even to using its multi-billion cash hoard to cover its short positions as a gesture of trying to rectify the situation – one of the main sources of gold, other than the central banks that can be shorted - may well be closing down; perhaps even becoming a buyer.

And if the Blanchard case should proceed to the discovery process, the lid may well be raised on a true Pandora’s box of lies and deceit and perhaps even worse.

Secondly, as we all know, Japan has been more than just toying with deflation over the past decade or so. In desperation at its lack of success to put new life into the economy, the government is now considering a tax on cash and time deposits to prompt Japanese households into spending some of their $12 trillion of savings. The contemplated tax is said to be in the 3-5% range, compared to the less than 1% interest currently being earned.

If it becomes fact, this tax will probably kick in with their new financial year, in April 2004. At the same time, new anti-counterfeit notes could come into circulation. Hoarders of cash will face the prospect of paying a tax to exchange their old notes for the new ones or lose the full value of their mattress money.

The belief is that money will now flow into the stock exchange and into the purchase of property; perhaps also into the purchase of consumer goods. However, it is practically certain that – given Japanese culture and tradition – some of the savings and cash will be used to stock up on gold in order to avoid paying the tax. The total amount of gold ever mined, say 140 000 tons, at $350/oz is worth about $1,6 trillion. If only 0,1% of Japanese savings of $12 trillion were to flow into gold, the $12 billion would purchase 1060 tons at $350/oz – much more than what India imports in a year and almost half of annual mine production.

Given the tight gold market of today, that could send the price into uncharted territory. And the more it climbs, the more the Japanese will switch endangered savings into gold. While the tax is still being debated and with 10 months to go before it could take effect, matters are still fluid – but do not be surprised if prudent Japanese begin to buy gold in real quantity during the next few months.

The third positive factor is what Newmont has done with respect to the Yandal gold mine in Australia – a mine that became a Newmont subsidiary as part of the Normandy take-over. Yandal, in line with several other Aussie gold mines, had sold forward a substantial amount of gold, even a good bit more than their known reserves. Now, with gold above $350, these hedges are deep in the red and some of the counter parties wanted to cash in on their profits before the contracts expired – as they could do according to the terms.

This would have cost Newmont a good deal of money, so they countered in effect with a threat that Yandal will go bankrupt and be liquidated, in which case the creditors had to take pot luck. However, being a company with a solid reputation, Newmont decided to be the gentleman and made an offer to purchase the outstanding hedges at 50c on the dollar. The offer is only valid if all the counter parties accepted it, which 6 of the 7 promptly did. One had held out hoping to structure a better deal.

If gold mines that are heavily hedged can get out of the claims against them at half price, the bullion banks are not going to be as keen and as liberal with offering forward sales deals as before. This will reduce the amount of gold that flows onto the market in the form of short sales and – with rising demand from concerned and nervous investors from all over the world – any reduction in supply is good for gold. While the first two factors operate on the longer term, this third one is likely to have an effect very soon.

From this it would not be surprising if gold begins a new and hopefully a sustained rising trend quite soon, hammering away at last ditch attempts to keep the lid intact at suitable psychological levels, such as the $370 barrier. But once it gets going now, being fueled by much wider concerns than before, it can be expected to build up speed.

© June 2003 Daan Joubert

All rights reserved to Daan Joubert and www.GOLDSignals.com www.SAGOLDS.com and www.HugoCapital.com

[ThaiGuru]

Die Regierung scheint ja wirklich ganz dringend Geld zu benötigen, dass sie auf einmal so grosszügig mit den geplanten Fristen zur Steueramnestie verfähren will. Wenn ich mir diese Steueramnestie so ansehe, zeigt es sich leider wieder einmal mehr, dass sich Steuerehrlichkeit eben doch nicht gelohnt hat.

Ein Gutes hat die Geschichte trotzdem:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Hätten alle Steuerzahler in der Vergangenheit ehrlich ihre Steuern abgeliefert, könnte der Fiskus jetzt in seiner Finanznot nicht auf diese "Stillen Reserven" seiner Zahlbürger zurückgreifen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/steuern/index.html?id=509234&…

Steueramnestie

Goldene Brücken für schwarzes Geld



Die geplante Steueramnestie auf Schwarzgeld soll jetzt das gesamte Jahr 2004 gelten und möglicherweise bis in das Jahr 2005 hinein reichen. Dies bestätigte der Sprecher des Finanzministeriums, Jörg Müller, am Montag in Berlin. Das Bundeskabinett will an diesem Mittwoch einen entsprechenden Gesetzentwurf von Finanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) verabschieden.

Danach sollen im gesamten nächsten Jahr 25 Prozent auf Schwarzgeld bezahlt werden, um es "steuerehrlich" zu machen. Gleichzeitig sollen die Überprüfungsmöglichkeiten der Finanzverwaltung "maßvoll verbessert" werden. Geprüft werde noch, wie weit diese Regelung auch 2005 gelten soll, sagte Müller.

Bei der Prüfung gehe es um einen "sinnvollen Anschluss" an die Zinsabgeltungsteuer. Diese soll nach bisherigen Planungen zum 1. Januar 2005 in Kraft treten, spätestens aber im Jahresverlauf, und wiederum in den europäischen Kontext eingepasst werden. Denn parallel dazu startet zum 1. Januar 2005 die einheitliche grenzüberschreitende Zinsbesteuerung in der EU.

Steuerhinterziehung in der EU Einhalt gebieten
Nach der EU-Zinssteuer-Richtlinie wird in zwölf Mitgliedstaaten ein automatischer Informationsaustausch über Kapitalerträge von Nicht-Gebietsansässigen eingeführt. Drei Mitgliedstaaten erheben dann eine Quellensteuer, die bis 2011 schrittweise von 15 auf 35 Prozent ansteigt. Damit soll der Steuerflucht und der Steuerhinterziehung in der EU Einhalt geboten werden. Unabhängig von diesem Datum wird derzeit auch noch nach Regelungen mit Drittstaaten wie der Schweiz gesucht.

Die armen Sünder sollen nicht bloßgestellt werden
Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) hatte zugesichert, die Rückholung von Kapital aus dem Ausland "so weit es geht zu anonymisieren". Bei der Regelung für die Zinsabgeltung wird derzeit auch darüber nachgedacht, diese auf alle Formen von Kapitalerträgen auszudehnen. Dies beträfe dann unter anderem auch Dividenden und Erträge aus Beteiligungsverkäufen.

Zunächst war geplant die Steueramnestie in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2003 beginnen zu lassen, und in diesem Zeitraum 25 Prozent zu erheben, um Schwarzgeld über die "Brücke zur Steuerehrlichkeit" zu bringen. In der ersten Jahreshälfte 2004 sollten dann 35 Prozent bei der Rückführung von Schwarzgeld erhoben werden.

Meldung vom 16. Juni 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=2&paget…

16.06.2003

Diskussionen um Goldpreis Entwickl.
Security KAG

Heftige Diskussionen über die künftige Entwicklung des Goldpreises bestimmten Anfang vergangener Woche die Jahreskonferenz der London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in Lissabon, berichten die Analysten von der Security KAG.

Einig seien sich die Experten gewesen, dass der Anstieg der Notierungen in den vergangenen 18 Monaten zu einem erheblichen Teil auf die Rückkäufe von Terminabsicherungsgeschäften durch die Minen zurückzuführen gewesen sei, die in Erwartung eines steigenden Goldpreises allein 2002 fast 500 Tonnen Gold und damit ein Sechstel der gesamten Nachfrage zurückgekauft hätten.

Daneben habe der Kursrückgang des Dollar zum Euro den Goldpreis gestützt. Eine ganze Reihe institutioneller und zu einem kleineren Teil auch private Investoren außerhalb der USA hätten sich mit dem Kauf von Gold in günstiger lokaler Währung abgesichert.

Dieser Faktor werde den Goldmarkt auch in Zukunft beeinflussen.

Die Devisenanalysten von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein würden damit rechnen, dass der Euro in den nächsten zwölf Monaten die Marke von 1,35 Dollar erreiche. Sollte die hohe Korrelation zwischen dem Goldkurs und der Euro-Entwicklung in diesem Zeitraum anhalten und der Preis von etwa 310 Euro je Feinunze gehalten werden, würde dies einen Dollar-Preis von deutlich über 400 Dollar je Unze bedeuten.

Der Rückgang der US-Ölvorräte habe aktuell den Ölpreis in die Höhe getrieben. Für ein Barrel der Nordsee-Sorte Brent sei in London 28,37 Dollar (24,15 Euro) bezahlt worden. Ein überraschend deutlicher Rückgang der US-Ölvorräte in der vergangenen Woche habe die Ölpreise am Mittwoch in die Höhe getrieben. US-Öl habe ein neues Hoch nach dem Irak-Krieg markiert. Der Beschluss der OPEC, ihr Förderlimit zwar beizubehalten, sich aber im nächsten Monat wieder zu treffen, sei Händlern zufolge erwartet worden. Für ein Barrel (knapp 159 Liter) der marktführenden Nordsee-Sorte Brent zur Lieferung im Juli sei in London zuletzt 28,37 Dollar (24,15 Euro) bezahlt worden. Leichtes US-Öl habe mit 32,33 Dollar ein Zwölf-Wochen-Hoch markiert und habe damit 35 Prozent mehr als vor einem Jahr gekostet.

Händlern zufolge habe vor allem der unerwartete Rückgang der US-Lagerbestände an Rohöl und Ölprodukten um 4,6 Millionen Barrel in der vergangenen Woche den Preis getrieben. Analysten hätten eine leichte Aufstockung der Vorräte prognostiziert. Der Beschluss der Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (OPEC), die Förder- und Exportobergrenze mit 24,5 Millionen Barrel täglich unverändert zu lassen und Ende Juli erneut zusammenzukommen, sei in den Preisen weitgehend eingepriesen gewesen. Am 31. Juli würden die OPEC-Ölminister für den Fall zusammentreffen wollen, dass die Preise durch die Wiederaufnahme der irakischen Ölexporte unter Druck geraten sollten.

[ThaiGuru]

@empuge

Wird wohl damit zu tun haben, dass der ex CEO Charles Ager einen Prozess gegen:



gewonnen hat, bei dem das Gericht Ager, resp. Delgratia Mining, kürzlich, 300000.- Dollar Entschädigung zugesprochen erhalten hatte. Presse Meldung dazu kam am 10. Juni 2003 raus!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/17/119434.html

Gerling mit Riesenverlust

Rückversicherung und Abschreibungen auf Kapitalanlagen belasten Versicherer

Von Jan Dams

Frankfurt/Main - Der Kölner Versicherungskonzern Gerling hat das zweite Jahr in Folge rote Zahlen geschrieben. Der Verlust des Traditionsunternehmens stieg nach Konzernangaben sogar von 563 auf mittlerweile 739 Mio. Euro. Das schwache Ergebnis resultiert vor allem aus dem schlechten Rückversicherungsgeschäft, das Gerling inzwischen an die Abwicklungsgesellschaft von Achim Kann weitergeben hat. Gleichzeitig hätten den Konzern hohe Abschreibungen auf Wertpapiere belastet, teilte Gerling mit.

Keine Angaben machte die Versicherungsgruppe allerdings zur Entwicklung ihres Eigenkapitals. Erst Ende Juli auf der Bilanzpressekonferenz sollen Details folgen. Der hohe Verlust und die Abschreibungen dürften allerdings weitere Löcher in die ohnehin dünne Kapitaldecke des Unternehmens gerissen haben. Gerling ist daher bereits seit geraumer Zeit auf der Suche nach einer Auffrischung seines Kapitals. Verhandlungen mit potenziellen Investoren wie dem Haftpflichtverband der Deutschen Industrie (HDI) waren bislang jedoch immer gescheitert.

weiter.....
http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/17/119434.html

Artikel erschienen am 17. Jun 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Mann, oh Mann, wenn das nur nicht ins Auge geht!

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Die gute Nachricht des Tages?"

Gruss

ThaiGuru




Liquidität treibt weltweit die Börsen an
Dax und Dow Jones markieren neue Jahreshochs - Private wie institutionelle Anleger setzen wieder verstärkt auf Aktien

Von Beatrix Wirth und Holger Zschäpitz

Berlin - Egal was mit der Konjunktur passiert: Die Börsen steigen. Selbst schlechte Wirtschaftsdaten können die aktuelle Kursrallye scheinbar nicht stoppen.

Zu Wochenbeginn kletterte der Dax auf ein neues Jahreshoch. Von Tiefstand am 12. März hat der Index damit mehr als 1000 Punkte oder fast 50 Prozent gut gemacht. Die Vehemenz, mit der die Aktien nach oben streben, überrascht selbst die Profis. "Die unmittelbare Nachrichtenlage rechtfertigt die Rallye nicht", sagt Hendrik Garz, Stratege bei WestLB Panmure. "Es scheint, als existierten derzeit zwei Welten: die der steigenden Aktienkurse und die, in der Ökonomen ihre Konjunkturerwartungen weiter nach unten revidieren."

Erst in der vergangenen Woche hatte beispielsweise die Europäische Zentralbank ihre Wachstumsprognose für Euroland deutlich zurückgenommen. Jenseits des Atlantiks erhielten die Sorgen um die Konsumentenstimmung neuen Auftrieb, nachdem der Index zum US-Verbrauchervertrauen überraschend eingebrochen war. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Dies legt nahe, dass die Hausse rein liquiditätsgetrieben ist", sagt Stratege Garz.

Aktuelle Statistiken untermauern die These. Aktienfonds erfreuen sich in Deutschland neuer Beliebtheit, während die lange favorisierten Geldmarktfonds zuletzt Mittelabflüsse aufwiesen. Nach Zahlen des Bundesverbands der Investmentgesellschaften gibt es seit März bei Aktienfonds erstmals wieder mehr Käufer als Verkäufer - ein Trend, der sich im April noch verstärkte. Im Mai ist das Interesse nach ersten Zahlen der Fondsgesellschaften nur leicht abgeflaut. So flossen etwa der Deka im Mai 218 Mio. Euro frische Gelder zu, nach 844 Mio. Euro im April.

Auch in den USA entdecken Investoren die Dividendenpapiere neu. "Mittlerweile kaufen Anleger die 13. Woche in Folge bei Aktienfonds zu", berichtet Thomas McManus von Banc of America. "Das ist der längste Zeitraum positiver Zuflüsse seit Anfang 2002." Damit fällt die Wende bei der Aktienfonds-Nachfrage beiderseits des Atlantiks exakt mit der Trendumkehr an den Märkten zusammen. Dieses Schema ist kein Zufall. Denn die Märkte schwimmen derzeit regelrecht in Liquidität: Nicht nur, dass sich die Leitzinsen weltweit auf Rekordtiefs befinden. Auch die langfristigen Renditen am Rentenmarkt sind so niedrig wie seit Jahrzehnten nicht mehr, was Investoren nach Alternativen suchen lässt. Der Nomura-Liquiditäts-Index, der diesen Zusammenhang darstellt, ist daher auch erstmals seit Anfang 2002 im Vorjahresvergleich ins Plus gedreht. Wie schon in der Vergangenheit haben die Aktienmärkte diesen Trend nachvollzogen.

Auch institutionelle Anleger wie Versicherungen heizen die Rallye an. "Die Aktie rückt wieder mehr in den Fokus", sagt Bernd Karstedt, Fondsmanager für institutionelle Gelder bei Union Investment. "Weil alternative Anlageformen wie Anleihen oder der Geldmarkt keine interessanten Renditen mehr abwerfen, steigt der Risikoappetit." Diese Bewegung kann an Fahrt gewinnen, je stärker der Aktienmarkt zulegt. Denn viele institutionell verwaltete Depots haben eine so genannte Wertsicherungsgrenze, die erst ab einem bestimmten Indexniveau den Fondsmanagern größere Freiheiten bei der Asset Allocation gewährt. "Wenn der Aktienmarkt also ins Laufen kommt, steigt der Risikopuffer und die Aktienquote kann ausgebaut werden", so Karstedt.

Eine solche liquiditätsgetriebene Rallye sollte, nur weil die Renditesuche das Anlageverhalten dominiert, nicht als irrational abgetan werden. "Auch hinter solchen Investments stehen rationale Entscheidungen", betont WestLB-Stratege Garz. "Die zuletzt starke Unterbewertung des Marktes ist einer der Faktoren, die für Aktien sprechen." Allerdings müssten irgendwann auch einmal härtere konjunkturelle Fakten kommen. "Das Liquiditätspulver ist schließlich irgendwann verschossen", so Garz. Und um neue Gelder müssten die Fondsmanager hart ringen. Der Stratege glaubt nicht daran, dass private Anleger in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren ihr Kapital in großem Stile in den Aktienmarkt umschichten.

Immerhin: Erste Strategen sehen bereits die Konjunkturwende am Horizont. "Auch wenn es paradox klingt, weil die deutsche Wirtschaft dieses Jahr bestenfalls stagnieren wird: Ich halte die Rallye des Dax für fundamental gerechtfertigt", meint Gertrud Traud, Strategin bei der Bankgesellschaft Berlin. Bis 2004 werde die Wirtschaft wieder auf stabilen Beinen stehen und dies spiele der Aktienmarkt aktuell mit dem typischen Vorlauf von sechs bis neun Monaten. Traud:

"Der faire Wert des Dax von 4000 Zählern ist noch in diesem Jahr erreichbar."


Artikel erschienen am 17. Jun 2003" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/17/119629.html?s=2

Liquidität treibt weltweit die Börsen an
Dax und Dow Jones markieren neue Jahreshochs - Private wie institutionelle Anleger setzen wieder verstärkt auf Aktien

Von Beatrix Wirth und Holger Zschäpitz

Berlin - Egal was mit der Konjunktur passiert: Die Börsen steigen. Selbst schlechte Wirtschaftsdaten können die aktuelle Kursrallye scheinbar nicht stoppen.

Zu Wochenbeginn kletterte der Dax auf ein neues Jahreshoch. Von Tiefstand am 12. März hat der Index damit mehr als 1000 Punkte oder fast 50 Prozent gut gemacht. Die Vehemenz, mit der die Aktien nach oben streben, überrascht selbst die Profis. "Die unmittelbare Nachrichtenlage rechtfertigt die Rallye nicht", sagt Hendrik Garz, Stratege bei WestLB Panmure. "Es scheint, als existierten derzeit zwei Welten: die der steigenden Aktienkurse und die, in der Ökonomen ihre Konjunkturerwartungen weiter nach unten revidieren."

Erst in der vergangenen Woche hatte beispielsweise die Europäische Zentralbank ihre Wachstumsprognose für Euroland deutlich zurückgenommen. Jenseits des Atlantiks erhielten die Sorgen um die Konsumentenstimmung neuen Auftrieb, nachdem der Index zum US-Verbrauchervertrauen überraschend eingebrochen war. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Dies legt nahe, dass die Hausse rein liquiditätsgetrieben ist", sagt Stratege Garz.

Aktuelle Statistiken untermauern die These. Aktienfonds erfreuen sich in Deutschland neuer Beliebtheit, während die lange favorisierten Geldmarktfonds zuletzt Mittelabflüsse aufwiesen. Nach Zahlen des Bundesverbands der Investmentgesellschaften gibt es seit März bei Aktienfonds erstmals wieder mehr Käufer als Verkäufer - ein Trend, der sich im April noch verstärkte. Im Mai ist das Interesse nach ersten Zahlen der Fondsgesellschaften nur leicht abgeflaut. So flossen etwa der Deka im Mai 218 Mio. Euro frische Gelder zu, nach 844 Mio. Euro im April.

Auch in den USA entdecken Investoren die Dividendenpapiere neu. "Mittlerweile kaufen Anleger die 13. Woche in Folge bei Aktienfonds zu", berichtet Thomas McManus von Banc of America. "Das ist der längste Zeitraum positiver Zuflüsse seit Anfang 2002." Damit fällt die Wende bei der Aktienfonds-Nachfrage beiderseits des Atlantiks exakt mit der Trendumkehr an den Märkten zusammen. Dieses Schema ist kein Zufall. Denn die Märkte schwimmen derzeit regelrecht in Liquidität: Nicht nur, dass sich die Leitzinsen weltweit auf Rekordtiefs befinden. Auch die langfristigen Renditen am Rentenmarkt sind so niedrig wie seit Jahrzehnten nicht mehr, was Investoren nach Alternativen suchen lässt. Der Nomura-Liquiditäts-Index, der diesen Zusammenhang darstellt, ist daher auch erstmals seit Anfang 2002 im Vorjahresvergleich ins Plus gedreht. Wie schon in der Vergangenheit haben die Aktienmärkte diesen Trend nachvollzogen.

Auch institutionelle Anleger wie Versicherungen heizen die Rallye an. "Die Aktie rückt wieder mehr in den Fokus", sagt Bernd Karstedt, Fondsmanager für institutionelle Gelder bei Union Investment. "Weil alternative Anlageformen wie Anleihen oder der Geldmarkt keine interessanten Renditen mehr abwerfen, steigt der Risikoappetit." Diese Bewegung kann an Fahrt gewinnen, je stärker der Aktienmarkt zulegt. Denn viele institutionell verwaltete Depots haben eine so genannte Wertsicherungsgrenze, die erst ab einem bestimmten Indexniveau den Fondsmanagern größere Freiheiten bei der Asset Allocation gewährt. "Wenn der Aktienmarkt also ins Laufen kommt, steigt der Risikopuffer und die Aktienquote kann ausgebaut werden", so Karstedt.

Eine solche liquiditätsgetriebene Rallye sollte, nur weil die Renditesuche das Anlageverhalten dominiert, nicht als irrational abgetan werden. "Auch hinter solchen Investments stehen rationale Entscheidungen", betont WestLB-Stratege Garz. "Die zuletzt starke Unterbewertung des Marktes ist einer der Faktoren, die für Aktien sprechen." Allerdings müssten irgendwann auch einmal härtere konjunkturelle Fakten kommen. "Das Liquiditätspulver ist schließlich irgendwann verschossen", so Garz. Und um neue Gelder müssten die Fondsmanager hart ringen. Der Stratege glaubt nicht daran, dass private Anleger in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren ihr Kapital in großem Stile in den Aktienmarkt umschichten.

Immerhin: Erste Strategen sehen bereits die Konjunkturwende am Horizont. "Auch wenn es paradox klingt, weil die deutsche Wirtschaft dieses Jahr bestenfalls stagnieren wird: Ich halte die Rallye des Dax für fundamental gerechtfertigt", meint Gertrud Traud, Strategin bei der Bankgesellschaft Berlin. Bis 2004 werde die Wirtschaft wieder auf stabilen Beinen stehen und dies spiele der Aktienmarkt aktuell mit dem typischen Vorlauf von sechs bis neun Monaten. Traud:

"Der faire Wert des Dax von 4000 Zählern ist noch in diesem Jahr erreichbar."


Artikel erschienen am 17. Jun 2003" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Berlin - Egal was mit der Konjunktur passiert: Die Börsen steigen. Selbst schlechte Wirtschaftsdaten können die aktuelle Kursrallye scheinbar nicht stoppen." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Berlin - Egal was mit der Konjunktur passiert: Die Börsen steigen. Selbst schlechte Wirtschaftsdaten können die aktuelle Kursrallye scheinbar nicht stoppen.

Zu Wochenbeginn kletterte der Dax auf ein neues Jahreshoch. Von Tiefstand am 12. März hat der Index damit mehr als 1000 Punkte oder fast 50 Prozent gut gemacht. Die Vehemenz, mit der die Aktien nach oben streben, überrascht selbst die Profis. "Die unmittelbare Nachrichtenlage rechtfertigt die Rallye nicht", sagt Hendrik Garz, Stratege bei WestLB Panmure. "Es scheint, als existierten derzeit zwei Welten: die der steigenden Aktienkurse und die, in der Ökonomen ihre Konjunkturerwartungen weiter nach unten revidieren."

Erst in der vergangenen Woche hatte beispielsweise die Europäische Zentralbank ihre Wachstumsprognose für Euroland deutlich zurückgenommen. Jenseits des Atlantiks erhielten die Sorgen um die Konsumentenstimmung neuen Auftrieb, nachdem der Index zum US-Verbrauchervertrauen überraschend eingebrochen war. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Dies legt nahe, dass die Hausse rein liquiditätsgetrieben ist", sagt Stratege Garz.

Aktuelle Statistiken untermauern die These. Aktienfonds erfreuen sich in Deutschland neuer Beliebtheit, während die lange favorisierten Geldmarktfonds zuletzt Mittelabflüsse aufwiesen. Nach Zahlen des Bundesverbands der Investmentgesellschaften gibt es seit März bei Aktienfonds erstmals wieder mehr Käufer als Verkäufer - ein Trend, der sich im April noch verstärkte. Im Mai ist das Interesse nach ersten Zahlen der Fondsgesellschaften nur leicht abgeflaut. So flossen etwa der Deka im Mai 218 Mio. Euro frische Gelder zu, nach 844 Mio. Euro im April.

Auch in den USA entdecken Investoren die Dividendenpapiere neu. "Mittlerweile kaufen Anleger die 13. Woche in Folge bei Aktienfonds zu", berichtet Thomas McManus von Banc of America. "Das ist der längste Zeitraum positiver Zuflüsse seit Anfang 2002." Damit fällt die Wende bei der Aktienfonds-Nachfrage beiderseits des Atlantiks exakt mit der Trendumkehr an den Märkten zusammen. Dieses Schema ist kein Zufall. Denn die Märkte schwimmen derzeit regelrecht in Liquidität: Nicht nur, dass sich die Leitzinsen weltweit auf Rekordtiefs befinden. Auch die langfristigen Renditen am Rentenmarkt sind so niedrig wie seit Jahrzehnten nicht mehr, was Investoren nach Alternativen suchen lässt. Der Nomura-Liquiditäts-Index, der diesen Zusammenhang darstellt, ist daher auch erstmals seit Anfang 2002 im Vorjahresvergleich ins Plus gedreht. Wie schon in der Vergangenheit haben die Aktienmärkte diesen Trend nachvollzogen.

Auch institutionelle Anleger wie Versicherungen heizen die Rallye an. "Die Aktie rückt wieder mehr in den Fokus", sagt Bernd Karstedt, Fondsmanager für institutionelle Gelder bei Union Investment. "Weil alternative Anlageformen wie Anleihen oder der Geldmarkt keine interessanten Renditen mehr abwerfen, steigt der Risikoappetit." Diese Bewegung kann an Fahrt gewinnen, je stärker der Aktienmarkt zulegt. Denn viele institutionell verwaltete Depots haben eine so genannte Wertsicherungsgrenze, die erst ab einem bestimmten Indexniveau den Fondsmanagern größere Freiheiten bei der Asset Allocation gewährt. "Wenn der Aktienmarkt also ins Laufen kommt, steigt der Risikopuffer und die Aktienquote kann ausgebaut werden", so Karstedt.

Eine solche liquiditätsgetriebene Rallye sollte, nur weil die Renditesuche das Anlageverhalten dominiert, nicht als irrational abgetan werden. "Auch hinter solchen Investments stehen rationale Entscheidungen", betont WestLB-Stratege Garz. "Die zuletzt starke Unterbewertung des Marktes ist einer der Faktoren, die für Aktien sprechen." Allerdings müssten irgendwann auch einmal härtere konjunkturelle Fakten kommen. "Das Liquiditätspulver ist schließlich irgendwann verschossen", so Garz. Und um neue Gelder müssten die Fondsmanager hart ringen. Der Stratege glaubt nicht daran, dass private Anleger in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren ihr Kapital in großem Stile in den Aktienmarkt umschichten.

Immerhin: Erste Strategen sehen bereits die Konjunkturwende am Horizont. "Auch wenn es paradox klingt, weil die deutsche Wirtschaft dieses Jahr bestenfalls stagnieren wird: Ich halte die Rallye des Dax für fundamental gerechtfertigt", meint Gertrud Traud, Strategin bei der Bankgesellschaft Berlin. Bis 2004 werde die Wirtschaft wieder auf stabilen Beinen stehen und dies spiele der Aktienmarkt aktuell mit dem typischen Vorlauf von sechs bis neun Monaten. Traud:

"Der faire Wert des Dax von 4000 Zählern ist noch in diesem Jahr erreichbar."


Artikel erschienen am 17. Jun 2003" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/17/119629.html?s=2

Liquidität treibt weltweit die Börsen an
Dax und Dow Jones markieren neue Jahreshochs - Private wie institutionelle Anleger setzen wieder verstärkt auf Aktien

Von Beatrix Wirth und Holger Zschäpitz

Berlin - Egal was mit der Konjunktur passiert: Die Börsen steigen. Selbst schlechte Wirtschaftsdaten können die aktuelle Kursrallye scheinbar nicht stoppen.

Zu Wochenbeginn kletterte der Dax auf ein neues Jahreshoch. Von Tiefstand am 12. März hat der Index damit mehr als 1000 Punkte oder fast 50 Prozent gut gemacht. Die Vehemenz, mit der die Aktien nach oben streben, überrascht selbst die Profis. "Die unmittelbare Nachrichtenlage rechtfertigt die Rallye nicht", sagt Hendrik Garz, Stratege bei WestLB Panmure. "Es scheint, als existierten derzeit zwei Welten: die der steigenden Aktienkurse und die, in der Ökonomen ihre Konjunkturerwartungen weiter nach unten revidieren."

Erst in der vergangenen Woche hatte beispielsweise die Europäische Zentralbank ihre Wachstumsprognose für Euroland deutlich zurückgenommen. Jenseits des Atlantiks erhielten die Sorgen um die Konsumentenstimmung neuen Auftrieb, nachdem der Index zum US-Verbrauchervertrauen überraschend eingebrochen war. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Dies legt nahe, dass die Hausse rein liquiditätsgetrieben ist", sagt Stratege Garz.

Aktuelle Statistiken untermauern die These. Aktienfonds erfreuen sich in Deutschland neuer Beliebtheit, während die lange favorisierten Geldmarktfonds zuletzt Mittelabflüsse aufwiesen. Nach Zahlen des Bundesverbands der Investmentgesellschaften gibt es seit März bei Aktienfonds erstmals wieder mehr Käufer als Verkäufer - ein Trend, der sich im April noch verstärkte. Im Mai ist das Interesse nach ersten Zahlen der Fondsgesellschaften nur leicht abgeflaut. So flossen etwa der Deka im Mai 218 Mio. Euro frische Gelder zu, nach 844 Mio. Euro im April.

Auch in den USA entdecken Investoren die Dividendenpapiere neu. "Mittlerweile kaufen Anleger die 13. Woche in Folge bei Aktienfonds zu", berichtet Thomas McManus von Banc of America. "Das ist der längste Zeitraum positiver Zuflüsse seit Anfang 2002." Damit fällt die Wende bei der Aktienfonds-Nachfrage beiderseits des Atlantiks exakt mit der Trendumkehr an den Märkten zusammen. Dieses Schema ist kein Zufall. Denn die Märkte schwimmen derzeit regelrecht in Liquidität: Nicht nur, dass sich die Leitzinsen weltweit auf Rekordtiefs befinden. Auch die langfristigen Renditen am Rentenmarkt sind so niedrig wie seit Jahrzehnten nicht mehr, was Investoren nach Alternativen suchen lässt. Der Nomura-Liquiditäts-Index, der diesen Zusammenhang darstellt, ist daher auch erstmals seit Anfang 2002 im Vorjahresvergleich ins Plus gedreht. Wie schon in der Vergangenheit haben die Aktienmärkte diesen Trend nachvollzogen.

Auch institutionelle Anleger wie Versicherungen heizen die Rallye an. "Die Aktie rückt wieder mehr in den Fokus", sagt Bernd Karstedt, Fondsmanager für institutionelle Gelder bei Union Investment. "Weil alternative Anlageformen wie Anleihen oder der Geldmarkt keine interessanten Renditen mehr abwerfen, steigt der Risikoappetit." Diese Bewegung kann an Fahrt gewinnen, je stärker der Aktienmarkt zulegt. Denn viele institutionell verwaltete Depots haben eine so genannte Wertsicherungsgrenze, die erst ab einem bestimmten Indexniveau den Fondsmanagern größere Freiheiten bei der Asset Allocation gewährt. "Wenn der Aktienmarkt also ins Laufen kommt, steigt der Risikopuffer und die Aktienquote kann ausgebaut werden", so Karstedt.

Eine solche liquiditätsgetriebene Rallye sollte, nur weil die Renditesuche das Anlageverhalten dominiert, nicht als irrational abgetan werden. "Auch hinter solchen Investments stehen rationale Entscheidungen", betont WestLB-Stratege Garz. "Die zuletzt starke Unterbewertung des Marktes ist einer der Faktoren, die für Aktien sprechen." Allerdings müssten irgendwann auch einmal härtere konjunkturelle Fakten kommen. "Das Liquiditätspulver ist schließlich irgendwann verschossen", so Garz. Und um neue Gelder müssten die Fondsmanager hart ringen. Der Stratege glaubt nicht daran, dass private Anleger in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren ihr Kapital in großem Stile in den Aktienmarkt umschichten.

Immerhin: Erste Strategen sehen bereits die Konjunkturwende am Horizont. "Auch wenn es paradox klingt, weil die deutsche Wirtschaft dieses Jahr bestenfalls stagnieren wird: Ich halte die Rallye des Dax für fundamental gerechtfertigt", meint Gertrud Traud, Strategin bei der Bankgesellschaft Berlin. Bis 2004 werde die Wirtschaft wieder auf stabilen Beinen stehen und dies spiele der Aktienmarkt aktuell mit dem typischen Vorlauf von sechs bis neun Monaten. Traud:

"Der faire Wert des Dax von 4000 Zählern ist noch in diesem Jahr erreichbar."


Artikel erschienen am 17. Jun 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

June 16, 2003 (usagold.com)

NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $359.00 an ounce up $2.50 an ounce from Friday’s close. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s “Empire State Manufacturing Survey” data "fostered the belief that the economy is improving," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. And in turn, this weakened the belief that the Federal Open Market Committee would institute any sort of major cut in rates when it meets June 24 and June 25, he said. As a result, "gold is trading in a lifeless mode," he said. Still, as far as the overall view of metals commodities goes, "the bullish side of the picture revolves around the upcoming Fed meeting," said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider. "Expectations of a Fed cut are likely to dominate near-term dollar trading in a downward fashion," he said, adding that this scenario would be positive for gold. Gold prices are likely to head higher in the longer run, said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider, because "the monetary stance still favors easing and that favors higher gold prices," he said. "Hell bent on avoiding a Japanese scenario (after Japan`s bubble burst in 1989), Alan Greenspan & Co. are driving real interest rates, after inflation, deep into negative territory. They`re making it so unattractive to hold onto cash that it`s fueling a buying frenzy in any hard asset -- including real estate, gold and stocks of US corporations. This is not the kind of bull market which we find most comfortable," said Investech`s James Stack.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $358.30 an ounce, down from $359.00 an ounce at the morning fixing. "With the dollar on the ropes and some decent Japanese buying noted this morning, gold may trade higher in coming days," said John Reade of UBS Warburg in a daily report. "...we continue to warn that the net long position on Comex remains large, although less imposing than it was a week or two ago," Reade said, adding that the market could be in for a period of higher volatility. "The combination of long liquidation seen over the week, together with the failure to break below $350.00/48.00, is likely to have a positive effect on gold over the coming sessions and with the economic situation in the U.S. still far from certain I think we will see gold climb again," wrote James Moore of the BullionDesk.com.

"Financial assets had an unprecedented bull market from 1980 for 20-odd years," says Trevor Steel, partner of Baker Steel. "But now investors are looking at alternative asset classes and we think the outlook for `real` assets like natural resources is good,” he said. "A few years ago, we virtually had to kick down people`s doors to get a meeting to discuss gold - such was the apathy," he recalls. "Now, people are ready to listen to the case for gold - even if they are not yet buying much." There is a strong belief in the amount of life left in the gold price, because of structural economic problems in the US. Mr Steel likens gold to a currency. "Where do investors go if they want to get out of the dollar? "The Japanese government wants to weaken the yen, the euro is a new currency underpinned by economies that have already broken their own rules on budget deficits designed to give the currency credibility. So you really have to pick the best of a bad bunch and that`s where gold is starting to get a look in."

Downward pressure on the dollar will increase Monday on mounting expectations that the next cut in U.S. interest rates will be 50 basis points rather than 25. The Bank of Japan has already launched a preemptive strike to slow the dollar`s decline, and analysts are expecting further heavy market intervention over the course of the week. "The Bank of Japan has its work cut out," commented David Bloom, a senior currency strategist with HSBC in London. He was referring to the bank`s efforts to stop the dollar weakening much further toward Y115.00, a level generally considered to be damaging for Japanese exporters. "The threat of deflation is a structural issue," he said, suggesting that a 50-point cut in the Fed fund rates at next Wednesday`s FOMC was now a foregone conclusion.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold rose $2.50 in Hong Kong to close at $359.95. Gold gained as Asian equities plunged and the U.S. dollar weakened in spite of currency intervention by Japanese monetary authorities. Gold had rallied above $360 an ounce in a market still driven off movements in the U.S. dollar. "The trend is bullish," a Sydney trader said." Again, movement in gold is a dollar story," said Martin Mayne, associate director of NM Rothschild in Sydney, putting bullion`s next major resistance at $364. "It`s looking bullish, but I don`t think it`s going to run away on the top side," he said.

The dollar remained weak against the major currencies this morning ahead of inflation figures tomorrow and "confession" season on Wall St, and in spite of suspected “stealth” currency intervention by the Bank of Japan. "I don`t know if the authorities intervened today. But it`s clear they will intervene if the dollar falls," said Koji Fukaya, chief forex analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "For now dealers are keen to sell the dollar as they anxiously wait for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting following Friday`s weak U.S. data," said Hiroyuki Watanabe, forex manager at Shinsei Bank. "The dollar is expected to be more vulnerable to speculative sales as the market braces for results," he said.

Indian gold traders are looking at monsoon rains to bring buyers back to the market, as rural consumers are expected to have more spending power after they harvest their crops. "Buyers will start coming back to the market in August and September," said one trader. September also heralds the beginning of the country`s festive season, traditionally a gold-buying season. Rural consumers, comprising mostly farmers, rural artisans and traders, are heavily dependent on agricultural income, and keenly await the monsoon each year. The first monsoon rains hit the country June 8 this year, according to Prasenjit Bhattacharya of Dow Jones Newswires. Traders added that even though gold demand is expected to improve in the August-September period, prices may not rise significantly if the rupee remains strong against the dollar. Charles Devenish of Australian Indian Resources PTY assures that consumption of gold is also moving up. "As it is, we in India consume about 800 tonnes of gold annually through legal and other avenues, while the global level is about 3,000 tonnes. One must also see how consumption is growing in south-east Asia and China".


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. Central Command said it had launched a new mission, Operation Desert Scorpion, to hunt for pro-Saddam fighters who have mounted several deadly attacks in the restive towns and villages to the north and west of the Iraqi capital. Around 40 U.S. soldiers have been killed in hostile attacks and ambushes since the start of May, mostly in Baghdad and two nearby areas -- to the west around Ramadi and Falluja, and to the north around Balad, Baquba and Tikrit, Saddam`s home town. The U.S. army said two of its convoys were ambushed on Sunday near Balad, around 90 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad. The U.S. army said two of its convoys were ambushed on Sunday near Balad, around 90 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad. In one ambush, a rocket-propelled grenade aimed at a U.S. vehicle missed its target and hit a civilian bus.

Saudi police have arrested seven suspected Islamic militants in the Muslim holy city of Mecca where five other militants were earlier killed in a police raid, security sources said Monday. The sources said seven men suspected of involvement in Saturday`s shoot-out in Mecca, which is off-limits to non-Muslims, were arrested around the city Sunday.

Thousands of Iranians in Tehran protested against their conservative Islamic rulers for a fifth night on Saturday and smaller protests were reported in two other cities in the biggest anti-establishment demonstrations for months. Iran`s Foreign Ministry accused the United States of "flagrant interference in Iran`s internal affairs" and said the significance of the protests was being deliberately overstated by U.S. officials. A White House statement on Saturday denounced Islamic hard-liners who attacked pro-democracy demonstrators in Iran and called on the government to release those jailed.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose to 26.8, the highest level in its brief two-year history, from 10.6 in May. Many of the Empire State survey`s components showed solid improvement. New orders and shipments rose to 16.1 and 15.3 respectively. The six-month business outlook rose for a third straight month, to 58.4 in June from 55.6 in May. Employment remained a sore spot, however, as factories fired more workers than they hired. The employment index dipped below zero after a one-month spurt in positive territory.


Comment:

Gold held onto overnight gains as the U.S. dollar remained weak in spite of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s “Empire State Manufacturing Survey” and ensuring stock market rally. The name of the game remains U.S. dollar weakness and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. Some are now speculating that the New York Fed data will weaken the urgency in cutting U.S. rate, however, by not cutting rates now would disappoint domestic manufacturers who are dependent on a weaker dollar to compete against other weak major currencies like the Euro and Yen. Gold came off earlier highs on profit taking around the $360 level as Funds and banks sold only to return late in the New York trading session to cover short positions and scoop up bargains as the price dipped lower.

Gold may hold around current levels through increased volatility until the Federal Reserve makes a decision on interest rates on June 25. Some suspect that the Fed will not cut rates on the surprising data today while others remain unconvinced and await more definitive data. U.S. manufacturers eagerly await a weaker U.S. dollar to compete against foreign imports and a stronger dollar would crush their hopes for an economic recovery. Federal Reserve governors have been on extended road trips over the last several weeks talking down the prospects of deflation and explaining various “exotic” means that could be employed to fight deflation. Clearly these various methods would mean a weaker U.S. dollar to counter any deflation threats and a weaker dollar will be supportive for gold. Also weighing on Federal Reserve policy is the soaring daily record setting current account, trade, and budget deficits and a ballooning national debt that is now unsustainable and will never be fully serviced with higher interest rates let alone ever paid down, forget about the debt ever being repaid. Obviously a weaker dollar through reflation is the most likely outcome in spite of absurd “strong dollar policy” chatter out of the White House. As the only viable alternative currency going forward, precious metals should remain well supported.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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http://www.ftd.de/ub/fi/1055680377951.html?nv=hpm


Aus der FTD vom 17.6.2003 www.ftd.de/agenda
Freddie Mac - Sturmgefahr für Märkte und Konjunktur
Von Ulrike Sosalla, New York

Die Bilanzprobleme des Hypothekenfinanzierers Freddie Mac ängstigen ganz Amerika. Sie drohen sich zu einem Skandal auszuweiten, der für die Finanzmärkte und die US-Konjunktur schlimmer wäre als die Pleiten von Enron und Worldcom.

Hilfe für Häuslebauer

Gregory Parseghian zögerte nicht. Gleich nachdem er am vergangenen Montag zum Vorstandsvorsitzenden von Freddie Mac berufen wurde, stattete er einem Büro in der Nähe des Weißen Hauses seinen Antrittsbesuch ab. Gastgeber war Armando Falcon, Chef der Regulierungsbehörde, die Freddie Mac beaufsichtigt.

Falcon wird nicht der Einzige bleiben, den Parseghian in diesen Tagen beehrt: Er braucht dringend einflussreiche Freunde. Oder wenigstens ein paar Menschen, die ihm wohlgesonnen sind. Und die sollten möglichst Politiker sein. Denn in Washington schlagen derzeit alle auf Freddie Mac ein, fordern Aufklärung und Reformen. "Mehr Transparenz und Offenheit wären eine gute Sache", kritisiert sogar US-Finanzminister John Snow.


Der Vorwurf: Freddie Mac hat seine Bilanzen nicht im Griff. Ein solches Unternehmen möchte natürlich kein Politiker unterstützen, gerade nach den Skandalen um Enron und Worldcom. Und Freddie Mac ist mehr als Enron oder Worldcom, das Finanzinstitut ist viel größer und deutlich wichtiger für Amerikas Konjunktur und Märkte.



Schaden für gesamte Immobilienbranche


Ein Zusammenbruch würde die Wirtschaft tief erschüttern. "Sollte Freddie Mac von einem Fehler oder einem Schock erschüttert werden, könnte das Ergebnis eine Krise der Finanzmärkte sein, die der Eigenheimbranche und der Wirtschaft beträchtlichen Schaden zufügen würde", warnt William Poole, Präsident der Federal Reserve von St. Louis.


Gemeinsam mit seiner Schwesterfirma Fannie Mae finanziert Freddie Mac fast die Hälfte aller Eigenheimhypotheken des Landes: Sie kaufen Banken die Hypotheken ab, schnüren sie zu Paketen und reichen sie an Investoren weiter.


So sichern die beiden dem boomenden Immobilienmarkt die niedrigen Zinsen, die ihn am Laufen halten. In Freddie Macs Büchern steht die enorme Summe von 1300 Mrd. $ an Hypotheken, Anleihen und anderen Wertpapieren.


Vor einer Woche erschreckte dann eine Nachricht die Öffentlichkeit: Freddie Mac entlässt seinen Präsidenten und nimmt den Rücktritt des Vorstandschefs und des Finanzvorstands an. Damit rückt eine Bilanzkorrektur ins Rampenlicht, die bis dahin kaum jemand beachtet hat.



Investoren kommen ins Zweifeln


Im Januar hatte Freddie Mac angekündigt, sein neuer Wirtschaftsprüfer PricewaterhouseCoopers wolle die Verbuchung von Derivaten in den Bilanzen für 2000 bis 2002 ändern. Allerdings: Das würde die Gewinne in diesem Zeitraum nicht senken, sondern steigern. Diese Aussage beruhigte die Investoren - zunächst.


Nach dem Rauswurf der Führungsspitze ist das Vertrauen der Investoren stark getrübt. "Das zeigt, dass Fannie Mae und Freddie Mac Schwierigkeiten haben, obwohl der Eigenheimmarkt noch boomt", urteilt John Talbott. Der Finanzfachmann sagt in seinem gerade erschienenen Buch "Der kommende Crash im Eigenheimmarkt" einen Zusammenbruch des Marktes vorher. "Dies ist das erste große Ereignis, und eine Menge anderer schlechter Nachrichten wird noch kommen."


Die breite Öffentlichkeit ist in großer Sorge. Zu sehr fühlen sich die Anleger an die ersten Wochen des Enron-Skandals erinnert: So hat auch Freddie Mac Bilanzprobleme, deren Ausmaß das Unternehmen erst Monate später genau beziffern will; und die Unstimmigkeiten sind unter dem Wirtschaftsprüfer Arthur Andersen entstanden.



Manager verschwinden ohne Erklärung


Wie bei Enron treten auch Spitzenmanager ohne genaue Erklärung ab. Und monatelang ermittelt die US-Börsenaufsicht, ohne dass das Unternehmen die Öffentlichkeit informiert. Schließlich belassen die Kreditbewertungsagenturen ihre ausgezeichneten Ratings bei Freddie Mac, so wie sie es zu Beginn des Falles Enron getan haben.


Ob sich hinter der Krise wirklich ein ausgewachsener Bilanzskandal verbirgt, wagt zur Zeit noch keiner vorherzusagen. Zu unübersichtlich ist die Lage, zu komplex sind die Buchungen, die Freddie Mac ins Visier der Ermittler gebracht haben - es geht um die Verbuchung von Derivaten, mit denen das Finanzinstitut seine milliardenschweren Hypotheken-Portfolios gegen Zinsschwankungen absichert.


Auch um die Leute nicht weiter zu beunruhigen, zögert die Fachwelt darin, in der Öffentlichkeit Schreckens-Szenarien zu entwerfen. So kann die Fed-Gouverneurin Susan Bies keine negativen Auswirkungen auf den Hypothekenmarkt ausmachen. "Bisher sind wir nicht allzu besorgt."



Geheimniskrämerei schadet dem Image


Noch hat der Markt Hoffnung, dass sich alles fügt. Für Freddie hat das Desaster aber schon begonnen: Das Image ist schwer angeschlagen. Besonders die Geheimniskrämerei trägt dazu bei, die Investoren zu verunsichern und zu verschrecken. Das gibt Kritikern Auftrieb, die die Zwitterstellung von Freddie Mac und seiner Schwester Fannie Mae anprangern - allen voran die mächtigen Marktwirtschaftler der amerikanischen Zentralbank Fed.


Fannie und Freddie, wie die Konzerne in den USA genannt werden, sind halb private, halb staatliche Unternehmen. Sie genießen viele Privilegien und konnten sich immer auf eine gutmütige, staatliche Aufsicht verlassen. Im Aufsichtsrat etwa sitzen Regierungsvertreter.


Die beiden Konzerne sind von zahlreichen Offenlegungsvorschriften der Börsenaufsicht SEC ausgenommen, an die alle anderen börsennotierten Unternehmen sich halten müssen. Und sie haben beim Finanzministerium eine jederzeit abrufbare Kreditlinie über 2,25 Mrd. $. Außerdem zahlen weder Fannie noch Freddie Steuern an die Bundesstaaten oder Gemeinden. Das alles ist gesetzlich fixiert.



Ungeschriebene Privilegien


Nicht festgeschrieben ist hingegen ein Privileg, das für ihr Geschäft so wichtig ist wie kein anderes: Ihre Investoren gehen davon aus, dass beide eine staatliche Kreditgarantie genießen, also notfalls von der Regierung gerettet würden, um einen Bankrott zu verhindern.


Diese Annahme beschert den Anleihen von Fannie und Freddie ihre Triple-A-Bewertung, also die höchste Stufe, die die Kreditbewertungsagenturen vergeben. Und diese Annahme verhinderte auch, dass in der vergangenen Woche die Freddie Mac-Bonds wie die Aktien abstürzten. Der Aktienkurs sank um mehr als 20 Prozent.


Freddie Mac selbst bestreitet die Staatsgarantie. "Wir lassen keinen Zweifel daran, dass unsere Wertpapiere nicht von der Regierung garantiert werden", sagte Freddie Macs Ex-Chef Leland Brendsel kurz vor seinem erzwungenen Rücktritt. "Das ist das Gesetz, und das ist sehr klar kommuniziert."


Der Widerspruch zwischen der Wirklichkeit und der Wahrnehmung der Investoren treibt den Aufpassern der Fed den Angstschweiß auf die Stirn: Haben die Marktteilnehmer ihre Investitionsentscheidungen unter falschen Annahmen getroffen und wird nun ein Risiko offensichtlich, dann könnte eine Panik einsetzen, die Freddie, Fannie und schließlich der ganzen US-Wirtschaft einen kaum kalkulierbaren Schlag versetzt.



Zwang zu Reformen


Schnell müssten Reformen her, fordern die Marktbeobachter. Der Zwitterstatus ist ein Erbe der Depression in den 30er Jahren. Nach der Wirtschaftskrise entschloss sich die Regierung, den Eigenheimbesitz zu fördern, und gründete die Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), deren Abkürzung die Amerikaner schnell zu "Fannie Mae" verballhornten. 1970 gründete die Regierung dann Freddie Mac, um wenigstens ein wenig Konkurrenz in den Hypothekenmarkt zu bringen. 1989 ging Freddie an die Börse.


Ob der Skandal sich ausweitet oder nicht, die nächste Reform steht wohl bevor. Der Kongress hat schon eine Anhörung angesetzt. Die Themen: mehr Offenlegungspflichten, Zwang zu mehr Eigenkapital und ein Abbau der Steuerprivilegien.


Frühere Anläufe zu Reformen haben Fannie und Freddie stets mit Lobbying in Washington bekämpft. Änderungen würden das Geschäft weniger profitabel machen, die Zinsen erhöhen, die sie für ihre Anleihen zahlen, die sie aufnehmen, um den Banken Hypotheken abzukaufen.


Es sieht also so aus, als könnte Gregory Parseghian neue Freunde in Washington dringend gebrauchen. Er hat mit dem Werben schon angefangenen: "Die Aufklärung der Bilanzfragen ist meine oberste Priorität."



© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland , © Illustration: Quelle: Freddie Mac

[ThaiGuru]

June 16 - Gold $359 up $2.50 - Silver $4.61 up 4 cents

Delicious!

The gold action today was delicious. Last night when I went to bed, gold was flying during the Asian trading hours, up $4.60. The buying seemed a bit frantic, as if something was brewing to goose the gold price. This morning, gold sold off, only due $2.50 higher. That didn’t hold as the shorts bashed it to only a minor higher opening. But wham, gold shot back up, only to be hit hard when the stock market rallied sharply. It was a set up for gold to be blasted, but that was not to be. After going $1 lower, gold turned around the last hour to close near its highs of the Comex session.

Supposedly, the funds?? were the early gold sellers. Goldman Sachs was the later buyer who drove gold up.

The fact that gold could rally so smartly in the face of a potential bombing is very constructive from a technical point of view. Today’s recover greatly strengthens the gold technical picture and must have the shorts looking at themselves. There are no gaps to be filled, which is also positive. An additional plus is that gold rallied with the dollar gaining strength during the day and the stock market soaring.

The Comex open interest only rose 831 contracts to 193,281, still leaving a lot of room for new buying to take gold MUCH higher. Once it takes out $360, it should run.

A promising gold chart:

http://ad.tradingcharts.com/ads/mmastery/suit.html

No gaps in silver to fill either. Seems to me we are finally going to see silver seriously challenge $5.

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, June 16, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.32, PM $5.56, with world gold at $360 and 359.20. More or less at, and somewhat above, legal import point. While these premiums are lower than when gold was last in the $360s slightly more than a week ago, they probably are influenced by the abrupt nature of gold’s $6 rise since early Friday. The Istanbul Gold Exchange has reported a 63% increase in volume for the past week, and imports higher by 54%: which matches with various reports of strong demand when gold tested the low $350s.

NY’s robust rally on Friday apparently alarmed the Japanese Trade Houses: $US gold started rising as soon as Japan opened, (8pm Sunday evening NY time), cresting at $361.25 just before Europe became active. Volume jumped 100% from Friday to the equivalent of 64,529 Comex lots, and the active contact rose 17 yen, but open interest fell by a metal volume equal to 2,324 Comex contracts, indicating quite active short covering. No domestic Japanese initiative was visible.

While it is refreshing to see the JP Morgan "Daily Technical Strategist" so positive":

"GOLD - base in place for a new high - The recent short term correction from 375 looks to be complete, confirmed by the rally back through 358/359. As such 355 should now provide support for any pullbacks, but really we are just looking for the market to accelerate away to new highs in the week/s ahead. Retain longs.",

the most incisive comment to hand this weekend came from the far away Queensland Gold Coast, from The Privateer’s http://www.the-privateer.com/g-charts.html weekly commentary:

"The REAL eye opener is that the vast majority of (the) falls in Treasury yields has taken place in the two weeks since the beginning of June."

Here`s the data on that - the yield falls since June 2, 2003:

Three-month Treasury yields: 1.12% to 0.84%

Two-year Treasury yields: 1.31% to 1.07%

Thirty-year Treasury yields: 4.42% to 4.07%

Of course, this suggests that the Freddie Mac question has not been fully dealt with. The Privateer also has an interesting view about the prospective rate cut:

"… the …November 2002 (0.50%) rate cut had two big consequences. First, it pushed the $US index below the trendline which had supported its post-1995 bull market and CONFIRMED a $US bear market. Second, it led directly to a two month (December 2002-January 2003) $US 60 leap in Gold.

"All that took place only six months ago, but it seems to have been entirely forgotten. How else can one explain the STAMPEDE into Treasury debt which has been THE market phenomenon of June 2003?"

It is true that the rush of "liquidity" into Treasuries has accelerated since the reports of financial hijinks on the books of the main government mortgage makers (those supposedly "bullet proof" Government Sponsored Enterprises or GSEs - the Freddies and Fannies) came out earlier this month.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Nonetheless, what we are now witnessing is a lemming like stampede into the last refuge of what is called the "safe havens"."

SAFE HAVEN!?


The mind truly boggles."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"With interest rates approaching ZERO in nominal terms and already BELOW zero in REAL terms? In paper donominated in a currency which is in a BEAR market, which has been steadily falling for eighteen months, and which promises to fall faster and harder at any minute?

The mind truly boggles."

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (9318, up 201) and DOG (1667, up 40) went bonkers on this news:

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Stock-index futures erased losses after a factory index compiled by the Buffalo branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rose to 26.8 in June, the highest since the measure started in July 2001. The index was 10.6 in May. Readings greater than zero indicate the majority of manufacturers reported an improvement in business.

GATA’s Mike Bolser, who has built quite an outstanding reputation with some savvy people in the financial market arena:

What is a Federal Reserve Repurchase Agreement [repo]?

The simplest definition:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">A repo is temporary funds provided by the Federal Reserve`s "Discount window" to selected primary securities dealers[Merrill, Morgan Stanley etc]. It is money used in the markets on a temporary basis ranging from overnight to as long as 28 days.

Primary dealers buy securities, stocks, bonds, futures, options­anything that you buy, a repo buys on the market.

A permanent repo is far more effective since the money never has to be repaid by the "borrower". It is free to the primary dealers.

Repurchase Agreements can be used to buy index futures and support the big indexes like the DOW. In fact when the repo pool total, the total of all un expired repos get to be more than $30 Billion the DOW doesn`t fall. When the total of repos falls below $25Billion the DOW falls.

Mike

More from Mike:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">No mystery in the DOW`s rise today. The Fed issued $10.25Billion in new temporary repos bringing the pool total back up to $39.5Billion. This levelhas been sufficient to keep the DOW moving up except during periods of heavy dollar selling. It is my working hypothesis that repo funds are used in BOTH markets.

Today we see the dollar hovering at 92.30 up from 91.90 [a new low for the move] so the dollar is doing a little better this AM thus leaving more repo funds for the Fed`s DOW levitation "project".

The message continues to be don`t short the major indexes with a repo pool greater than $30 Billion.

As mentioned before, I am taking this development as an indicator of continued Fed stress­they aren`t satisfied with a flat DOW or a flat bond market. They have a "need" to see them both rising.

The market is the best vehicle of price discovery ever invented and will eventually discover the best place to be in such a bizarre situation. With bonds and equities moving up in a "mystery" move that baffles experts we see something truly odd. There continues to be no mystery however, in real interest rates that keep falling world-wide.

If one is confused about bonds and stocks going up together in another Wall Street "new paradigm", the place to be is in neither. The right thing to do is ignore CNBCs, wealth-destroying propagandists whose only objective is to serve their true masters.

The place to be is gold.

Mike

As oft-mentioned in MIDAS commentary, interest rate reductions are VERY gold bullish.

As low as rates are now, there is talk they will go even lower, with it widely expected the Fed will take our Fed Funds down another notch next week. Who will go to zero interest rates first, the US or Japan? The latest from Europe:

European Bond Yields at Lowest Since 1973 on Rate-Cut Views

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- European bonds extended gains this week, with yields at their lowest in at least 30 years, on speculation a faltering economic rebound will spur the European Central Bank to pare its key interest rate in coming months.

The German 2 1/2 percent note due in March 2005 Friday rose 0.04, or 40 euro cents per 1,000-euro ($1,175) face amount, to 101.06. This week, the yield shed 14 basis points to 1.87 percent, the lowest for a note due in one to two years since at least 1973, the year Bundesbank records on that maturity begin. The note advanced for a seventh week in eight. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The ECB on Thursday cut its forecast for economic growth and said inflation may slow next year to 0.7 percent, compared with its target of about 2 percent. Futures trading shows investors are raising bets the bank will trim its main rate by September, after cutting it by half a percentage point last week…. –END-

There has been conjecture of late about the gold loans/lingering importance of the gold derivatives/absence of a gold price explosion, etc. Thought this would be a good time to address some of them. This is one email I received:

am hearing from gold analysts that 10,000-13,000 tonnes of leased gold is closer to the actual amount, and 16,000 tonnes which seems very aggressive. This is consistent with 2 factors:

1. $800+ gold taking months/years longer than predicted.

2. If we use the popular figure of 16000 tonnes of gold
loaned/swapped/forward then the numbers don`t add up, ie:


-16000t loans/swaps/forwards (unless closer to Veneroso`s lower 10000t)
-8000t of US gold not able to be leased due to impurity (apparently)
-3000t of French gold which won`t be leased (*)
-3000t in IMF (*)
-2000t from Swiss (*)
- 771t from Netherlands (843t reserves minus 72t loans, ***)
- 750t from Japan (*)
- 600t from China (*)
- 400t from Russia (*)
- 290t from Austria (318t reserves minus 28t loans, ***)
- 200t from Portugal (592t reserves minus 381t loans, ***)
- 111t from UK (314t reserves minus 203t loans, ***)
- 104t from Philippines (266t reserves minus 163t loans, ***)
====
35200t
plus several smaller ones (eg Romania, Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway),
so let`s say:
35500t
======
Now 35,500t is way over the 32,300t (**) of total reserves.
Even if only small amounts of gold required to manipulate in thin New York Access market trading, even that is not possible if there is no gold left to
do so.

How is this possible?

Sources:

www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/joubert050803.html

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/archive/pdf/World…

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/archive/pdf/World…

Thanks

Grant.

Some points:

*Frank thought the actual gold loan number was 10,000 tonnes five years ago. I seriously doubt he thinks they are that low today. Privately, he would tell you they must be closer to 15,000 tonnes.

*10,000 to 13,000 tonnes is still double to almost triple the number estimated by GFMS/WGC. It means the gold loan/swap numbers used by the gold establishment have no credibility.

*How do we know the US still has 8300+tonnes left? There has been no unbiased audit in around 50 years.

*Yes, a good percentage of US gold is coin melt and would have to be refined to be delivered. That would raise a commotion. However, we could have swapped some of our gold for German Bundesbank gold and let it flow into the market. Remember the 1700 tonnes of gold at West Point that was mysteriously re-classified as "Custodial Gold." That is until GATA came along and made a big stink. Months later all the US gold was re-classified again as "Deep Storage Gold."

*How do we know the IMF is not lending/swapping its gold? After all, it instructs its member banks to show its lent/swapped gold as gold reserves. In other words, it requests IMF member banks to lie about the true status of that gold. Gold, which has left vaults, is to accounted for as if it were still there.

*The central bank numbers you cite are probably not accurate. The Portuguese number is off, we know for sure. Fifty one tonnes of swaps is not included in your number and neither is around 45 tonnes the Portuguese recently announced was sold.

*The rising BIS gold derivatives number tell us there is pronounced gold lending/swapping going on. That has to be because the gold producers are reducing their gold derivatives related to forward sales, options, etc.

*The delayed $800+ gold comment begs the question. Gold has not rallied because The Gold Cartel has dumped so much gold into the market to keep it from rising. That is the very reason it will explode as time goes by. They are running out of ammo.

*Reg Howe’s latest, Not Your Father`s Gold Market, is a must read on this subject. It was posted yesterday at:
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary25.html#anchor168813

Many Café members sent me Chris Temple’s piece at Kitco entitled, Gold’s Short Position: Part Myth, Part Yesterday’s News

An excerpt:

"Folks, there’s NO WAY the Fed or other central banks would follow their present course without first having largely defused the short position in the yellow metal. I believe they’ve done exactly that over the last year or so. A liquid gold market and time have helped; for instance, J.P. Morgan’s derivative position where gold is concerned has reportedly been reduced by two-thirds since it served as the Fed’s proxy during the 1999 spike."

The entire article may be read at:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Temple/jun132003.html

Chris Temple does some fine work, but I have to take issue with him on this one. In my opinion, the potential for a gold derivatives price explosion is growing, not diminishing.

Here’s why:

*First of all, the gold derivatives at JP Morgan have not dropped by two thirds since the Washington Agreement. In Q1 2000 they were $67,885 billion. Last quarter they were $37,282 billion, a reduction of a little over 40%. However, all that means is someone else has taken the derivatives risk. We KNOW that has to be the case because the BIS gold derivatives are exploding UP, not DOWN!

*According to the gold industry, most derivatives tied to the hedging activities of gold producers. From calendar end of Q1/2002 to Q1/2003, the gold producers reduced their forward sales commitments by an enormous 647 tonnes, a drop of over 20%. From Q4/2001 to Q4/2002, the notional value of the gold derivatives at the BIS rose dramatically from $231 billion to $315 billion, a rise of 36%. They went up $36 billion in the last half of 2002 alone. This means The Gold Cartel is throwing gold loans/swaps/gold paper at the market to keep the price from exploding and causing a gold derivatives neutron bomb from going off.

*The Gold Cartel learned from the aftermath of the Washington Agreement when gold exploded $87 in a couple of weeks. It was the option volatility and high lease rates that almost caused the gold system to burst. They have made sure there is plenty of gold around this time for leasing and have quieted the market down on rallies, thereby keeping volatilities down.

*However, because of the approximate 1400 tonne annual supply/demand deficit, they are only delaying the inevitable and building in a bigger price explosion. That’s what the huge increase in the BIS gold derivatives number is telling us.

*Far from being in control, the Gold Cartel is gradually losing control and at some point will go into desperate mode. They could be there now.

*If The Gold Cartel weren’t so fearful of derivatives problems, they wouldn’t be so adamant about keeping gold from taking out $370.

*We are not exactly free of gold derivatives problems at the moment. The Newmont/Yandal situation is no minor matter, nor is the class action law suit against Barrick for lying about its derivatives-laden hedgebook.

*Some of the central banks may let certain bullion banks out with a cash settlement, instead of the bullion bank returning the gold. That will not be the case with all the banks.

Even if 10 or 20% of the lent gold needs to be returned and bought in the physical market, it will create havoc.

Betting against a coming gold derivatives neutron bomb or gold derivatives banking crisis is likely to be a losing proposition.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt!

Gold:



Dollar:



Silber 1 Wochen-Chart:

[empuge]

@ ThaiGuru

schönen Dank für die Information!

gruß

empuge

[ThaiGuru]

Deutsche sollten nach Clements Auffassung länger arbeiten


Arbeit für Deutschland - und zwar mehr.

Berlin (dpa) - Die Deutschen sollten nach Auffassung von Wirtschaftsminister Wolfgang Clement (SPD) länger arbeiten. «Wir sind, was Urlaubszeit, Feiertage und Arbeitszeit angeht, zweifelsohne an der Grenze angelangt», sagte er dem Magazin «Stern».

«Wer unseren Feiertagskalender mit dem anderer Staaten vergleicht, der kann auch ins Grübeln kommen.»

Clement verwies darauf, dass im nächsten Jahr das Wirtschaftswachstum bis zu 0,5 Prozent höher ausfallen werde, weil eine Reihe von Feiertagen auf Wochenenden falle. Mit Blick auf den Streik der IG Metall für die 35-Stunden-Woche auch in Ostdeutschland sagte er: «Das ist ein Konflikt zur falschen Zeit am völlig falschen Ort.»

Clement schloss nicht aus, dass die Arbeitslosenzahl im Winter über fünf Millionen steigt. Er erwarte aber, dass die Zahl darunter bleibe und tue «alles, um das zu verhindern». Clement machte sich auch die Zielmarke des Vorsitzenden der früheren Kommission zur Reform des Arbeitsmarkts, Peter Hartz, zu eigen, der von einem Abbau der Arbeitslosigkeit um zwei Millionen innerhalb von drei Jahren gesprochen hatte. «Ich bin überzeugt, dass Peter Hartz recht hat, nicht in den Zeitvorstellungen, aber in den Größenordnungen.

Wir werden die Arbeitslosigkeit drastisch senken können», sagte Clement. Allerdings werde es «vier bis fünf Jahre brauchen, bis wir den Arbeitsmarkt wieder in Ordnung haben».

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
erschienen am 17.06.2003 um 08:26 Uhr
© WELT.de

[erdede]

@wavetrader

das selbe Bild wie gestern, das ist was ich meine... der Goldpreis hat es eben zurzeit schwer, da auch charttechnisch bei 363 ein starker Widerstand besteht

erdede

[manfred1_I]

Derselbe Clement hat auch gesagt, dass wir im
Winter keine 5 Mio. Arbeitslose bekommen.
Mehr Arbeit und weniger Arbeitslose.
Wie geht das.
Welches Wundermittel hat der Mann???

[silvo]

Hallo Thai -6049# : Deutsche sollen länger arbeitein!

Schön und gut, wenn nur genügend Arbeit vorhanden wäre!
In der Bauindustrie- Handwerk ist die Lage katastrophal!!!

Es sind ganz einfach keine Aufträge vorhanden!!! Es gibt keine Arbeit!!

Dies ist das ganz große Problem!!!

[silvo]

Einer wie Clement kann auch nur labern!


Lösung hat er sowieso keine!!

[talvi100]

@erdede

Bis auf die Sprünge von 10 bis 15 $ pro Tag,hält sich alles in Rahmen.

Grüße Talvi

[erdede]

@talvi


ja, so in dem Dreh

wie wäre es mal in Erwägung zu ziehen, einen neuen Gold-Index einzuführen

z.B.
den
Cabal free Gold Index ?

Wäre verdammt interessant!!!

Das gleiche für Silber

erdede

[hpoth]

@ sivo,
ja wir sind auch im Bauhandwerk tätig,es gibt nur Arbeit
die keine Kosten mehr deckt, am liebsten wollen die Leute
nur noch nach " BAT" Arbeit vergeben,können wir nicht machen Betrieb noch zu groß dafür.Hab`s ja schon mal geschrieben hier herrscht der Bär oder Deflation,Preise und Aufträge gehen nur noch nach Süden. gruß hpoth aus Frankfurt/Main

[ThaiGuru]

Man kann sagen was man will über die Araber, aber sicher nicht, dass sie Goldfeindlich seien. Im Gegenteil, sie fördern noch den physischen Gold Absatz. Da sollten sich mal unsere Gold, und Juwelenhändler ein Stück davon abschneiden, anstatt sich nur dauernd über den Absatzrückgang zu beschweren.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=90452

Dubai:Tuesday, June 17, 2003



Gold sales to rise despite price hike
Dubai |By Saifur Rahman | 17-06-2003

Despite surging gold prices in the world market, the outlook for gold sales in Dubai remains positive, according to traders.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Last year, Dubai imported 250 tonnes of pure gold, sold 180 tonnes of jewellery and processed about 80 tonnes of bullion in local factories and refineries," said Tawfique Abdullah, chairman of the Gold and Jewellery Group.

"The surge in gold prices has a negative impact on retail sales in the local market, but it hasn`t been drastic, and with the annual promotions we hope to increase our sales," he said while announcing the details of the group`s biggest summer promotions, in which winners will be given 15 kilograms and Dh750,000 in prize money.

"In 2001 and 2002, we reported solid growth in sales. However, due to the world economy, I believe, we should be happy to sustain last year`s sales. We already have done that and might witness a growth in the coming months."

The Gold and Jewellery Group has announced another exciting promotion to coincide with Dubai Summer Surprises (DSS) 2003. This year, the group is offering more prizes than in any previous year.

Ten kilogrammes of specially designed `City of Gold` coins are being given away, in addition to a a special `win back 50 per cent of your purchase` promotion and five kilos of gold in `Scratch and Win` offers.

Group Manager K.P. Baiju said, `Win the City of Gold` will run from June 19 to August 29. Customers will receive a raffle coupon for every purchase of Dh250. This gives them a number of opportunities.

They can win a kilogram of limited edition `City of Gold` coins every week, in addition to thousands of scratch and win opportunities, where they can win gold coins of various denominations.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2996424.stm

Last Updated: Tuesday, 17 June, 2003, 09:33 GMT 10:33 UK

Profits slump at Ashanti Goldfields

Profits at Ashanti Goldfields, the Ghanaian mining firm in merger talks with Anglogold, have more than halved.

Ghana`s Ashanti people traditionally wear gold

Ashanti, Ghana`s leading company and biggest private employer, saw profits fall by 59% to $6.8m (£4.04m) in the first three months of the year.

The company blamed its woes on rising fuel prices, a weak dollar and lower production.(Vielleicht waren auch die riesigen Gold Vorwärtsverkäufe daran schuld? TG)

Last month, South Africa`s Anglogold announced it was in merger talks with Ashanti in order to try and forge cost cuts in a difficult mining environment.

Speculation has been growing as to whether the Ghanaian government is prepared to surrender its "golden share" - which gives ministers a veto on important decisions such as the sale of assets.

The government is currently in consultation on the matter, with a decision expected in the next few weeks.

If the merger goes ahead, Anglogold will acquire mines in Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania and Zimbabwe and will become the world leader in gold production

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4673918&act…

Breaking news

(AFX-Focus) 2003-06-17 16:58 GMT: Gold prices buoyed by U.S. rate-cut speculation - UPDATE 1

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures climbed Tuesday by as much as $5 an ounce and metals shares were poised to log their fifth-straight day of gains, buoyed by speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. "With the FOMC meeting later this week, gold is likely to remain in a nervous state as the market is torn between ... buying and profit taking," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has a two day meeting beginning June 24. "Mixed signals from the recent round of economic data suggests that a certain amount of safe haven buying will continue keep the market buoyant," Moore added. In recent dealings, gold for August delivery traded at $364 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $4.30. The contract, which earlier rose to a high at $364.40, had already gained nearly $6 in the past two sessions.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"If interest rates are cut next week, the dollar will not only have one of the lowest interest rates of any major currency and will garner the least consideration by international investors, but we will see a widening of negative real interest rates," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management told clients in a note Tuesday.

Negative rates reflect taking the appropriate interest rate for the dollar and subtracting the inflation rate. In an environment of negative interest rates, "every investment in mainstream debt instruments ... is a guaranteed loser upon maturity," Kaplan said.

As a result, "investors will seek alternative investments, such as foreign currencies, precious metals, or commodities in general ..." he said.

In Tuesday trading, U.S. stocks pulled back from earlier gains. The Dow Jones Industrials fell to 9,316, down 3 points on the heels of a triple-digit climb in Monday`s session. The index had traded as high as 9,351 earlier Tuesday amid sturdy data on the housing market and a better-than-expected showing in retail prices

Meanwhile, the dollar gained more ground against the euro and Japan`s yen, but fell against the Canadian dollar. Foreign traders pay close attention to fluctuations in the greenback since they must swap out of their local currencies to buy dollar-denominated gold on U.S. markets.

Metals indexes up for a fifth session In the equities arena, metals and mining indexes were set to log their fifth-straight winning streak as traders continued to bet on higher prices for gold in the coming weeks.

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index traded at 80.65, up 1.6 percent, and the Amex Gold Bugs Index traded at 153.73, up 1.7 percent. The CBOE Gold Index tacked on 1.2 percent to 66.67.

Among the sector`s biggest gainers were shares of Newmont Mining , which rose 97 cents, or 3 percent, to stand at $33.39. Goldcorp also climbed by 27 cents to $12.02 and Anglogold added 60 cents to trade at $32.56.

Silver climbs for a fifth session In other Nymex action, July silver traded at $4.635 an ounce, up 2.3 cents, marking its fifth-straight up session as recent strength in the broader stock market raised the prospect of higher demand for the industrial metals.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Resistance is likely to be seen around $4.65, but I think the potential is there for a test of $4.75 to $4.80 over the coming sessions,"

said TheBullionDesk.com`s Moore.

The July platinum contract fell $5.70 to $662 an ounce, while September palladium traded at $178.10 an ounce, down $6.90. July copper traded at 76.7 cents a pound, up 0.6 from the previous session.

Metals supplies were mixed. Nymex, gold inventories stood at 2.52 million troy ounces late Friday, up 50,136 troy ounces from the previous session.

Silver inventories down 73,656 troy ounces at 105.7 million troy ounces. Copper stocks fell by 1,339 short tons to 326,063 short tons. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see: http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com

The pricing, performance and/or news information provided above is only for your personal information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements or to be relied upon in making (or refraining from making) any specific investment or other decisions. Interactive Investor Trading Limited and its Data Providers do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided above. Such information shall not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by us. Where you are unsure about any matters raised by the above information you should obtain appropriate expert independent advice.

UK equity prices and indices are delayed by 15 minutes and US equity prices are delayed by 20 minutes. Fund prices are updated each business day normally by 10pm and fund performance data is updated at the start of each week normally at the end of the following Wednesday. Past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to its performance in the future. The value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up. You may not necessarily get back the amount you invested.

[saschmu1]

Der Goldpreis ist einfach nicht kleinzukriegen
Sollte doch runter gehen auf 340 und dann hoch auf 800 laut Elliottwavern

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1055857024.php

Why Gold Is Worthless

By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc.



Of course gold is not totally worthless, but you have to agree that gold never seems to reach its true potential. Ever wonder why gold never seems to reach its potential and why gold is still considered worthless by the overall masses?

weiter....
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1055857024.php

[ThaiGuru]

Dieses hier auf diesem Chart klar ersichtliche Nullsummenspiel bei der Goldpreisentwicklung der letzten 18 Monate, sollte eigentlich (fast) jedem potentiellen Goldanleger, das leider immer wieder zu hörende Argument, dass der Goldpreis ja schon so stark gestiegen sei, und es jetzt schon zu spät sei noch auf den abgefahrenen Zug aufzuspringen, wie ein Märchen erscheinen lassen.

In Schweizerfranken zum Beispiel, ist der Goldpreis, aufgrund des ständig an Wert verlierenden Dollars, noch keinen Deut gestiegen. 100 Gramm Gold, oder eine Krüger Rand Goldmünze kosten also immer noch genau gleich viel Schweizerfranken wie vor 18 Monaten.

Trotzdem hat ein Goldanleger, der vor 18 Monaten investiert hat, im Gegensatz zu einem Aktienanleger in US Papiere massiv gewonnen. Auch gegenüber Aktienanlagen im Dax, Nemax, SPI, oder den allermeisten anderen europäischen Börsen, hatte der physische Goldanleger besser abgeschnitten. Der Gold Aktien Anleger hatte in diesen 18 Monaten sogar fast alle anderen Anlageformen renditemässig übertroffen.

Das physische Gold Nullsummenspiel dürfte sich aber schon bald ändern, und die Goldpreise werden sich von dieser Ankoppelung an den US Dollar lösen.

Dazu ein Beispiel:

Zur Zeit wertet sich der US Dollar seit ca. einem Jahr, im Verhältnis zum Euro mehr, oder weniger ständig ab. Viele Leute sprechen fälschlicherweise von einer Aufwertung des Euros, CHF, etc., was es nicht ist. Es ist nur eine Abwertung des Dollars, wegen dem riesigen Haushalts-, und noch weit mehr wegen dem Handelsdefizit der USA, der Schuldenlast, und der sich ständig vergrössernden US Dollar Geldmenge. Alan Greenspan, alias "Mister Print" läst grüssen.

Um die Europäische Wirtschaftslage ist es aber ebenfalls nicht gut bestellt, und die Finanzhaushalte der meisten EU Länder, und Gemeinden kommen immer mehr aus dem Gleichgewicht, die Exporte fangen an sich zu verringern, die Gelmenge "Fiat Money" Euro weitet sich ebenfalls bedrohlich aus.

Wenn sich der Dollar weiter in dem Tempo wie zur Zeit gegenüber dem Euro abwertet; einige renormierte Analysten, gehen teilweise schon von Wechselkursen Dollar - Euro von 1.40 : 1.- noch in diesem Jahr aus; sollte die Schmerzgrenze für den Euro überschritten sein, und die europäische Export Wirtschaft in solche Bedrägnis geraten, dass der Euro sich einfach abwerten muss. Die EZB muss handeln!

Nun die Frage an Euch:

Gegen welche Währung soll sich nun der Euro überhaupt noch abwerten?

Gegen den US Dollar? (FED würde vermutlich massiv dagegen halten)

Gegen den japanischen Yen? (Die wollen doch nächstes Jahr evtl. schon negativ Zinsen einführen)

Gegen das englische Pfund? (Die BoE hätte sicher keine grosse Freude daran)

Gegen den schweizer Franken (Die Nationalbank würde das sicher bekämpfen)

Gegen die indonesische Rupie? (Ein Witz)

Ich glaube kaum?

Zum Schluss kann sich der Euro, und auch andere europäische Währungen, die nicht der Euro Währung angeschlossen sind, meiner Ansicht nach, nur noch gegen die einzig übriggebliebene "Echte Währung" Gold abwerten.

Unter den "Fiat Money" Währungen dieser Welt dürfte ein Wettlauf um die im eigenen Interesse stehenden besten Wechselkurs Verhältnisse entstehen, der Auswüchse annehmen könnte, die sich viele Leser hier im Board (noch) nicht vorstellen können.

Und genau das denke ich wird auch passieren!
Dabei spielt es eine untergeordnete Rolle, ob dieses Szenario einigen Zentralbanken, und Gold Cabalisten dieser Welt passt, oder nicht.

Dass von dieser Interessenten Seite noch lange eine solche goldene Entwicklung "Rückkehr zu wahrem Geld" aufgehalten werden kann, ist nicht sehr wahrscheinlich, falls diese, wie wir heute sehr stark vermuten, ja höchst wahrscheinlich bereits ihr "Pulver" (Goldreserven) verschossen haben, und die Zahl 32000 Tonnen Zentralbank Goldreserven, wohl eher noch als "Opium für`s Volk" gedacht sind, als wirklichkeitsnahe Zahlen, und Bestände. Nach der neuesten Studie von Reg Howe/GATA scheint es sogar heute möglich, dass diese Gold Reserven schon fast zur Gänze verschrieben wurden.

Physisches Gold strong Buy!!!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030617/0708000654_1.html

Dow Jones Business News
Durban Roodepoort Deep Offices Burgled, Documents Stolen
Tuesday June 17, 7:08 am ET

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- South African marginal gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep Ltd said Tuesday that its offices were broken into Sunday night, and although nothing of monetary value was stolen, company documents were removed during the break-in.

The incident occurred at 2300 local time Sunday, the company said in a statement posted on its Web site.

The intruders entered the office and used angle grinders and jackhammers to gain access to the company`s strong room.

The security officers on duty were held at gun point and pistol-whipped. Both have been admitted to hospital for observation, the company said.

No further details were provided.

At 1052 GMT on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa, DRD shares were trading up 1.5% at ZAR20.35.

-By Adam Aljewicz, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone], [e-mail]

[manfred1_I]

an thai-guru

der HUI-Index steigt und steigt.(156,30)

Ob der Goldpreis wohl jetzt explodiert??????

[Basic]

Hallo Thai,
sehr interessanter Gedanke mit der EUR Abwertung gegen Gold.

In USA gibt es erste Kommentare, das am steigenden Goldpreis das Gespenst der Deflation verfliegt.

So schnell kanns gehen. Der Stab fällt in die andere Richtung. Zu sehen an den Mienen, die eigentlich bei stagnierendem Gold nur so steigen.

Noch hat sich nur die Richtung geändert, schaun wir mal bis etwas Schwung in die Masse kommt.

Gruß Basic

[ThaiGuru]

@Basic

Schwung ist genau das was wir brauchen!
Und Schwung wird kommen, davon gehe ich aus.

Uebrigens, habe gerade einen Blick ins Portefeuille geworfen, heute wars schon mal wieder ein erfreulicher Anblick.

Wir werden es sicher alle noch öffters erleben.


@silvo

Genau so ist es, es gibt sie nicht mehr die Aufträge, mit denen neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen werden können. Ausser vielleicht auf Staatspump im grossen Stil. Das aber würde bedeuten noch mehr "Fiat Money", und das wiederum hiesse früher, oder später Hyperinflation.

Würde dem Goldpreis auch nicht schaden, im Gegenteil.


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

INFLATION? DEFLATION? EVEN THE JOURNAL`S CONFUSED

By JOHN CRUDELE

June 17, 2003 -- THE Wall Street Journal is very confused.

Here`s what one Journal story recently had to say about inflation: "Even Pat Jackman, economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which calculates the official inflation rate, says the widely reported numbers understate the rising cost of life from one year to the next. The fact is, he says, `more money is coming out of your pocket.`"

I`ve been crusading against the way the government reports its inflation numbers for a long time.

This isn`t just about some statisticians messing around with digits to distort the truth. This is about Washington cheating people out of money - Social Security recipients, retirees whose annual increases are tied to the inflation rate, people who invest in bonds. Lots of people. And lots of money.

People are getting screwed. And, back when I was in school learning this miserable trade, that`s what we were told to ferret out.

Let me explain something else. Jackman isn`t just one of the thousands of economists in our government bureaucracy. He is the senior economist in charge of the consumer price index. He is the man. And he`s a guy I`ve spoken with in the past - but never when he was as forthcoming as he apparently was with the Journal.

And the man says - according to the Journal`s own words - that the "widely reported numbers understate the rising cost of life from one year to the next."

So why is the Journal confused? Because even as it has such an authoritative source saying that inflation is being understated by the government numbers, the paper is also running countless other stories that fret about deflation.

A recent headline: "Having Defeated Inflation, Fed Girds for New Foe: Falling Prices." Then there`s the Journal story on June 5 that shows the depth of its confusion. It starts: "OK, is it deflation or inflation?"

This`ll all get more confusing today, when the government announces how much consumer prices changed during the month of May. The betting is, not much - at least according to the way the government calculates it.

So you can bet on a fresh round of deflation stories making the rounds.

But "not much" inflation doesn`t mean deflation, does it? And if Jackman is right, the "not much" being reported by the government is probably not true.

As I`ve said before, if you take out all the tricks that Jackman was referring to, the rate of inflation is probably around 5 percent a year. That`s certainly not deflation.

What tricks? The government uses a statistical technique call "geometric weighting" so it can keep inflation down. The theory behind this is that people will switch to cheaper products - like hamburger - if steak gets too expensive, so the price increases are offset.

Then there are quality adjustments. If a new feature like mandated pollution equipment is added to a car, then a price increase can be ignored even if the customer has no choice but to pay for the upgrade. You pay more, but inflation goes down.

And there`s the famous "intervention analysis" technique. If something like gasoline goes up more than the government`s computers expect, then the increase can be reduced. "Smoothed out" is the euphemism the economists use.

To be honest, the Journal isn`t the only publication confused. As I said in a recent column, this inflation/deflation thing is something newspapers have been wrestling with for years.

But at the Journal there`s a rare oddity. The paper`s editorial page seems to understand this stuff even as the rest of the paper doesn`t.

Here`s what their editorial page and I understand.

What Alan Greenspan is worried about isn`t price deflation, it`s asset deflation. He isn`t worried about you paying less for clothes or a pizza. He is concerned about the price of your house and your stock portfolio going down.

Asset deflation has been happening and it is troubling. Back in the `90s, Greenspan was fretting about inflation - and all the gurus and journalists got it wrong then, too. Greenspan was worried about asset inflation, not price inflation.

Had they understood, the gurus wouldn`t have been so surprised when Greenspan started raising rates in the middle of the asset inflation - a.k.a The Bubble.

Yesterday`s large rally, in fact, probably made Greenspan feel a lot better about the problem of asset deflation. Maybe even good enough not to cut interest rates next week.

Asset deflation, not price deflation. Understand that, and you have penetrated the mind of Chairman Greenspan - and boy it is gray in here.

Please send e-mail to:
[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

June 17 - Gold $362.80 up $3.80 - Silver $4.61 unchanged

There Is A HUGE Gold Buyer Out There/Gold Shares Soar

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn`t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." ..Mark Twain

GO GATA!!!

There is a huge gold buyer, or buyers, out there. As stated in this column the last few trading sessions, the gold action is superb/spectacular, with the technical condition of the market strengthening significantly by the day. Some of the gold goodies:

*Gold has been noticeably strong two days in a row during the Asian trading hours.
*All sell-offs in the US have been rebuffed the past few days, the selling met by resolute/ aggressive buying.
*Gold is moving on its own, the best kind of gold move, going up even as the stock market soars and the dollar corrects modestly to the upside.
*The price surged at times today, with the bid and offer moving farther apart and the trades jumping up and down. That tells me there is a very strong buyer taking on the crooks.
*The London PM Fix was noticeably protracted, indicated strong physical buying has surfaced.
*Buying has come from the trade the last two sessions. Once again Goldman Sachs was an aggressive buyer along with Morgan Stanley.
*Four times today gold was pressed lower in an effort to take out the unchanged level and four times it left a 10 cent gap (Today’s spot low was $359.10, while last night’s close was $359). The shorts could not even fill a lousy 10 cent gap, trying often. That is another bit of anecdotal analysis that there was a HUGE buyer out there willing to take on all comers right above the unchanged mark.
*Word of toxic hedge books is circulating again. Some of the aggressive physical buying may be troubled hedged producers trying to cover.

Yesterday’s gold Comex open interest dropped 1878 contracts to 191,402. Since Goldman Sachs was the notable aggressive buyer yesterday, they must have been covering shorts. As recently reported in MIDAS, this relatively low open interest as per the gold price, some 55,000 off the highs set early this year, leaves a great deal of room for left-out specs to POUR IN on the buy side. This latent buying could easily send gold to $400.

As good as today was for the gold big picture, we saw the usual conclusive evidence of the increasingly desperate crooks in action, which our camp has witnessed for so many years. Time and time again, MIDAS reports the same management of the silver and gold prices:

*Gold was stopped cold after it rallied $6 - remember the $6/ handle limit set when gold is really popping to the upside.
*When gold rallies as it did today, silver is almost always not allowed to move. The most it rose was three cents, with the cabal knocking it back to the unchanged level late.
*In the last minute, gold was knocked down $1.50 to take some steam out of the market. At the time, the HUI at broken 155 to the upside, which would have been a multi-year high.

These greedy, corrupt bums, people who have purposely hurt so many over the years, must pay in the years to come for these continuous, shady shenanigans.

One very constructive gold chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Some technical analysis from Brother T:

Hey Bill, Gold continues to look great. Today the August contract traded right up to the top of its flag formation. This symmetrical flag has been building for a month and a close above $365 in the next few days gives us an objective of $420. Keep in mind that this bullish formation is taking place ABOVE Sinclair’s teacup formation and ABOVE the 15-year downtrend channel. Technically, it doesn`t get much better. With bellwether Newmont trading over 33 today, we could be ready to fly soon! Brother Tim

Tim Murphy
Swiss America Trading Corp
800-289-2646 ext 1019
[e-mail]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, June 17, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.91, PM $$6.17, with world gold at $361.60 and $359. Barely at, and comfortably above, legal import point. Something is going on in the Far East, as discussed below, and it is not originating in India.

Firmer bullion prices in the Far East apparently attracted a little nibbling by the Japanese public on TOCOM. On volume down by 26%, equivalent to 47,955 Comex lots, open interest rose the equivalent of 1,187 Comex, with the active contract up by 11 yen. $US gold went out $2.25 higher than NY, at $361.25. (NY yesterday traded 34,164 lots; open interest fell 1,878.)

It appears that a large gold buyer is choosing to make himself known in East Asia, trading out of Australia. (This certainly does not mean that the activity necessarily originates there.) For the second day running gold has moved up in those hours, breaching $360, and exciting some Australian observers. Dow Jones reports:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> " A Sydney trader said strong demand for the metal seems to be outweighing any usually negative effect of these financial forces."

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Gold looks bid and stays bid, despite everything saying it should be lower," he said. "That indicates very strong demand," he added….. "The demand will take out all selling interest," he said, suggesting US$364 could be overcome later Tuesday."

In a similar vein, ABN Amro said in a market note that "gold demand of late has been strong and once again proved its resilience in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar and equity market."

Efforts to sell the gold price down in Europe and America were frustrated by recurrent bouts of buying, attributed by some to "Funds", although Standard London reports the closing NY rally yesterday was

"helped by buying from the physical sector"

Alert marker observers like Refco have smelt the Coffee:

"TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS:

Buy 2 August gold at 355 or better, risk close under 350 and expect 370."

For no explicitly disclosed reason. UBS offers:

"Options: Strong interest was seen in very short dated upsid…

Delightful rumors are circulating that Ashanti hedge book problems are involved.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

@Manfred1

Ob der Goldpreis explodiert morgen, kann ich Dir leider nicht sagen, aber weiter steigen sollte er eigentlich schon noch einiges mehr. Jeden Tag 5.- Dollar hoch wären mir auch angenehm.

Von mir aus können die Minen auch steigen wenn der Goldpreis ausnahmsweise mal stabil bleibt. Die Gold Minen sind eh fast alle im Verhältnis zum jetzigen Goldpreis noch massiv unterbewertet.

Weisst Du übrigens noch, vor dem Krieg hiess es doch immer sobald der Irak Krieg beendet sei, würde der Goldpreis wieder stark fallen.

Jetzt steigt der Goldpreis weiter, und das auch noch gegen die vehementen Ankündigung von EW Anhängern, die den Goldpreis noch auf 200.- Dollar runterfallen gesehen haben.

Es ist halt schon so wie Du immer schreibst:

Auf Gold ist Verlass!

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (up 4) and DOG (up 2) keep on moving up despite mediocre to soft economic news. The housing number was a good one as expected, but ho-hum on the rest of it:

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. industrial production rose in May for the first time since February amid signs manufacturers may be gearing up for increased demand, a Federal Reserve report showed. Factory capacity in use stayed at a two-decade low.
Production at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.1 percent last month after falling 0.6 percent in April, the Federal Reserve said. The proportion of industrial capacity in use held at 74.3 percent. Manufacturing output gained for the first time since January.

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices excluding food and energy rose last month by the most since August 2002, reflecting higher costs for public transportation, medical care and housing.
The core consumer price index rose 0.3 percent, three times as fast as economists had forecast, after holding steady in each of the previous two months. The Labor Department in Washington said the overall index was unchanged in May, tempered by a drop in energy prices, after falling 0.3 percent. -END-

The dollar closed higher at 93.07, up .27, and the bonds fell a full point.

GATA’s Mike Bolser, who has the best handle on the stock market move up of anyone I have heard:

Hi Bill:

The fed issued no repurchase agreements today thus the repo pool stays level, well above $30Billion.

A transfer error in my totals had the pool total at $39.5Billion yesterday, it should be $38Billion.

For those subscribers who wish to follow the repos themselves, the expirations listed below are current through today`s Fed posting. The current repo pool total is $38Billion[This includes permanent and temporary issuances].

Date__Expiration Amount [Billions]

10-Jul-03___6
03-Jul-03___5
26-Jun-03__9
19-Jun-03__9.5

The links to the Fed`s repo sites are:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/pihome/statistics/domestic.shtml
http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm

On occasion, the Fed makes several postings so be sure to scroll down to verify all have been captured.
Mike

From John Crudele’s insightful column at The Hemingway Table:

What tricks? The government uses a statistical technique call "geometric weighting" so it can keep inflation down. The theory behind this is that people will switch to cheaper products - like hamburger - if steak gets too expensive, so the price increases are offset.

Then there are quality adjustments. If a new feature like mandated pollution equipment is added to a car, then a price increase can be ignored even if the customer has no choice but to pay for the upgrade. You pay more, but inflation goes down.

And there`s the famous "intervention analysis" technique. If something like gasoline goes up more than the government`s computers expect, then the increase can be reduced. "Smoothed out" is the euphemism the economists use…. –END-

Remember former Treasury Secretary O’Neill’s comment about Washington "DELUDING" the people. Crudele’s commentary is another example of what O’Neill was referring to.

Hmmmm, this is not good:

US prepares to move troops to Azerbaijan [Iran`s Northern Front]

US prepares to move troops to Azerbaijan

http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2003/06/…

The United States will ensure political stability and continuity of power in Azerbaijan. Azeris base this conclusion on reports in the Western and Turkish media that the US is going to move about 15,000 of its troops from Germany to Azerbaijan, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.

Such reports appeared earlier, but they seem more plausible now that the influential American newspaper Wall Street Journal has specified this information. Citing sources in the Pentagon, the WSJ reported about the number of the contingent and the purpose of the operation ­ the protection of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the fight against international terrorism, according to the Nezavisimaya Gazeta. –END-

This is not good for the dollar:

Reuters

EU says oil could one day be priced in euros
Monday June 16, 6:52 am ET

BRUSSELS, June 16 (Reuters) - The European Union`s top energy official said on Monday she could see the euro replacing the dollar as the main currency for pricing oil.

"In the future the euro is (going to be) taking a place in the international markets in general as the money of exchange," European Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio said.

She was reacting to comments made earlier on Monday by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who said it was time to review the dollar`s energy pricing role.

He said oil producers who bought a lot of European imports would be hard hit by recent dollar weakness against the euro.

Asked if a switch to pricing oil in euros was possible, De Palacio said: "Of course -- in the oil market and in any market. "It`s a stable and a strong currency -- the role of the euro is going to be increased step by step -- it`s normal," she told reporters after a meeting with U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham in Brussels.

She declined to give a time frame within which energy pricing in euros might begin, but said European Commission President Romano Prodi had raised the issue on several occasions.

"It`s a matter of realism," she said.

-END-

From Jeff Dahl, CEO of SAMEX Mining:

Bill,

It was great to hear how Alain Despert is prospering lately as I gaze upon my GATA print which hangs humbly in my office. Throughout many of the darkest times these past +four years I have sat and pondered the GATA/MIDAS miracle that he captured so brilliantly. This work has a "Spirit" about it that nurtures the courage to fight on for justice. You and Chris are truly the "dynamic-duo" of the gold world.

Another champion in my books is Canadian fund manager John Embry. Few within his lofty arena have the guts, or maybe the understanding, to call a spade a spade (David Tice is another). It’s with great pleasure that we’ve added his fund to our shareholders list with this latest funding. As this gold market readies for launch I wonder how Columbus felt when he set sail to "discover" the New World. John reminds me of the King and Queen of Spain who believed in this dreamer and outfitted him when his own country men shrunk from the challenge. History records the GREAT prospering of that decision. I pray that it may be ours also, … "TO THE OARS MY FRIENDS"!
Jeff

Yesterday SAMEX, my second largest gold share holding, announced a brokered private placement of two million units at a price of $0.25 per unit. John Embry, one of the world’s top performing gold fund managers last year at the Royal Bank of Canada (up 153%), took the entire placement to the tune of $500,000 Cdn.

John, now President of Sprott Asset Management, is one of the shrewdest men in the gold world and has the track record to prove it. Not long ago, he made Golden Star Resources his number one pick and look what that stock has done recently.

Veteran Café members will recall the hullabaloo caused when a private Royal Bank gold report, authored by John, was leaked. It was sent to many of their more wealthy clients all over the world and eventually landed on my desk. In part of the report John reiterated what GATA has been saying for years, basically endorsing all of our arguments. He used them as reasons for investors to get long gold and the gold shares.

It is the very reason I ended my Vancouver presentation this way and bring it to your attention again:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Do your homework. Study and learn what GATA knows. Once you understand what has happened to the gold price these past years and why, you will know what has to happen in the years to come. It is a roadmap to a fortune."

John Embry has done his GATA homework for years and knows we are right. It has already paid off handsomely for him and will for everyone else who is willing to put in the effort to read our material carefully. It will help to get you into positions and give you conviction to stay with those positions.

At some point, the investment world is going to realize The Gold Cartel, including the IMF, has lied to the world about how much gold the central banks still have in their vaults. Gradually (partially through GATA’s efforts), they will comprehend the FACT that almost half the central bank gold is GONE. They cannot retrieve it without driving the price up many hundreds of dollars per ounce.

The gold price will shoot way up before this information becomes accepted by the investing public; whether they try and buy part of this gold back or not. What is important is the coming realization the central banks` gold market overhang is not there anymore. In the meantime, there is going to be panicky scramble to find gold supply. The quality gold exploration companies are the first place the majors and other investors will turn to. The gold exploration boom, which has been almost non-existent for many years because of the orchestrated artificially low gold price, will be like the internet stock craze of the late 1990’s – the difference being this boom will be for real. Even the share prices of the lousy exploration companies will soar for a period of time. All boats will float with the rising tide. Of course, the way to go is to be in the quality ones – one of them being SAMEX, which closed at 22 cents on the Nasdaq Bulletin Board in the US and $28.5 CDN on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Chuck checks in:

Bill:

Just looking at the shares and their charts. With the break out of GG today and the others all chomping at the bit, plus the charts on NEM, FCX and the gold composites, you don`t need much imagination to see that something monstrous is upon us. As the Elliottwavers say, the third of third. Enjoy it. You deserve a break today. Chuck

Chuck is right, something monstrous IS upon us. The gold shares were on fire today breaking out into multi-year high ground. The XAU jumped 2.87 to 82.24, while the HUI leaped 5.27 to 156.40, coming right back from 154.25 after the cabal knocked gold down on the close. Smart investors WANT IN.

The HUI:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

Newmont’s breakout will attract a good deal of institutional interest. Finishing the day at $33.42, up $1.84, it has point and figure price projections of three to five times from this price level.

Gold and the shares have performed admirably even as the stock market has roared ahead day after day. The low, and increasingly falling, interest rates in the US are incredibly gold bullish as advertised here for some time. The stock and bond markets have been goosed by the US paper printing machine and repo injections into the market. Those maneuvers have worked to stave off serious financial market/economic distress, but you can’t hide what is going on behind closed doors from the investment world forever. Enough of them are finally getting it and buying up the gold shares. Money is being made worthless by the financial powers in the US. In that environment there is no better investment than gold.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Chuck checks in again, late:

Bill:

As I continued to look at the big picture here, I remembered that gold and interest rates might very well run together here since they basically measure the frailty and eventual untrustworthiness of paper currencies, but particularly the soon to be confederate US dollar. Today might have marked the reversal of rates even thought the Fed does not want that here. I think that the next few weeks will show us.

The tide is going out and all of the gold ships will be taken out with it. The gold charts are in various bullish formations. Some of these juniors should be really ready to launch upward and it will be breathtaking. If the shares are doing this while the investing public is buying up any garbage that moves, what is going to happen when the penalty for that folly becomes apparent once more? This is going to be very interesting. Chuck


Trouble ahead:

The Seattle Times

June 15

Money funds scraping bottom

By Hope Yen
The Associated Press

NEW YORK — Investors have largely cheered the Federal Reserve`s openness toward cutting interest rates beyond their 41-year low, thinking lower rates will promote economic growth.

But the prospect of additional cuts is stirring concern in the money-market fund business.

Taxable money-market yields average 0.70 percent after expenses are subtracted from portfolio earnings.

If the Fed reduces the federal-funds rate when it meets June 24-25, as some analysts think it will, money-fund yields could fall close to zero or lower for some funds.

That could create turmoil for financial-services companies with the highest expense charges, since they will have to cut costs to pay their bills without dipping into principal.

Investors also must be vigilant about the risk to their principal if firms aren`t willing to sacrifice profits, although analysts think that is unlikely.

"At this point with rates and yields where they are, depending on the extent of the rate cut, some funds will have to consider waiving fees. That could adversely affect their bottom line," said Peter Rizzo, director of money-fund ratings at Standard & Poor`s.

"The smaller companies who only have a few funds will probably look to merge with other funds," he added. "There`s only so much unprofitability they can withstand during these times."

A quarter-point rate cut, for example, would knock average money-market yields down to 0.45 percent, putting 142 funds in danger of posting negative returns if they don`t cut fees. Still, those funds would represent only 2.1 percent of total money-market assets, according to money-fund tracker iMoneyNet.

But if the Fed were to cut rates by a half point, 424 funds could fall in the red, while a three-quarters point cut would threaten a vast majority of the total 1,747 money funds offered, said Peter Crane, managing editor of the Westborough, Mass., firm.

"The longer we`re down here the more of a problem this will become," he said, predicting a wave of fund closings or consolidations. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"It could be quite ugly."

Among the firms that could feel the pinch are Munder, BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, whose money-fund yields were hovering at 0.04 percent or lower. Pimco, known for its bond funds, has a 0.05 percent yield, according to iMoneyNet.

Rachel Barnard, a stock analyst who follows asset managers for Morningstar, added that firms that specialize in money-market funds such as Federated Investors could be hurt the most, since other companies might have mortgage businesses that would benefit from a rate cut.

"I don`t think anybody stands to lose a lot except Federated, since 70 percent of their business is in money markets," she said. "For Federated, a half-point cut is where they`re going to start taking it on the chin."

Officials for Federated declined to comment. They have said in the past that because the company caters mostly to institutional clients, its expenses have been lower and yields higher, giving it a greater cushion against rate cuts before profits dramatically suffer.

BlackRock, which also serves mostly institutional clients, echoed that view.

"While the absolute level of interest rates is an issue for money-market funds and their providers, the issue is significantly less for institutional funds vs. retail products as the fees are much lower," the company said in a statement.

Financial planners advise investors to be aware of money-market yields and consider short-term bonds if they don`t mind taking on more risk in exchange for a potentially higher return.

Those who hold shares of financial-services firms with substantial money-market businesses also should be wary particularly if the Fed cuts rates by a half point or more, they said.

Percy Bolton, a certified financial planner in Pasadena, Calif., also cautions against investors pouring their cash into stocks, betting on a better return, if they are using money funds for their intended purpose — to protect the principal before major purchases within a year.

-END-

Courtesy of Mike Bolser. Please note these are official numbers. The actual numbers in the vaults of the central banks are only about half this much. Of course, the disingenous World Gold Council keeps that a secret:

3-Feb World Gold Council Official Gold Reserves

1 United States 8,149.0
2 Germany 3,445.8
3 IMF 3,217.0
4 France 3,024.6
5 Italy 2,451.8
6 Switzerland 1,888.0
7 Netherlands 843.0
8 ECB 766.9
9 Japan 765.2
10 China Mainland 600.0
11 Portugal 591.8
12 Spain 523.4
13 Taiwan 422.1
14 Russia 387.7
15 India 357.8
16 Venezuela 356.0
17 Austria 317.5
18 UK 313.9
19 Lebanon 286.8
20 Philippines 266.4
21 Belgium 258.0
22 BIS 197.0
23 Sweden 185.4
24 Algeria 173.6
25 South Africa 173.6
26 Libya 143.8
27 Saudi Arabia 143.0
28 Singapore 127.5
29 Greece 122.4
30 Turkey 116.1
31 Romania 105.3
32 Poland 102.9
33 Indonesia 96.5
34 Australia 79.7
35 Kuwait 79.0
36 Thailand 77.9
37 Egypt 75.6
38 Denmark 66.6
39 Pakistan 65.1
40 Kazakhstan 53.1
41 Finland 49.0
42 Bulgaria 39.9
43 Norway 36.8
44 Malaysia 36.4
45 WAEMU 36.2
46 Slovak Republic 35.1
47 Peru 34.2
48 Bolivia 28.3
49 Ecuador 26.3
50 Syria 25.9
51 Morocco 22.0
52 Canada 18.6
53 Ukraine 15.7
54 El Salvador 14.6
55 Cyprus 14.5
56 Korea 13.8
57 Brazil 13.8
58 Czech Rep. 13.7
59 Netherlands Rep. 13.1
60 Jordan 12.7
61 UAE 12.3
62 Paraguay 10.9
63 Colombia 10.2
64 Ghana 8.7
65 Latvia 7.7
66 Ethiopia 7.7
67 Slovenia 7.6
68 Myanmar 7.2
69 CEMAC 7.1
70 Mexico 7.0
71 Tunisia 6.8
72 Guatemala 6.7
73 Macedonia 6.2
74 Lithuania 5.8
75 Ireland 5.5
76 Bahrain 4.7
77 Zimbabwe 4.3
78 Mongolia 3.8
79 Bangladesh 3.5
80 Albania 3.4

Totals 32,054.50

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[erdede]

...die übliche Richtung, Dollar stark Gold schwach, Dollar schwach Gold gehalten, ein Zückerchen vielliecht zwischendurch....so läufts im Moment... hoffen wir nur das das Gold nicht implodiert.

Solange kein Geld aus den Rentenmärkten ins Gold fliesst wird nicht viel in der Richtung laufen!
Oder sind dies die letzten negativen Zuckungen? Ich glaubs nicht.

So I gather what I have .... und mache einen schlechten Eindruck

erdede

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Ein bisschen mehr Zuversicht wäre vielleicht nicht schlecht. Auch wenn`s heute beim Gold Chart gerade noch nicht so gut aussieht wie wir es gerne hätten, weil der Goldpreis gerade wieder einmal mehr unter Druck steht.

Druck hat es so ansich, dass er meistens immer nach oben entweicht!

Kommt schon, spätestens dann, wenn der Board Idi.t wieder hier im Thread auftaucht.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn jetzt auch Merrill Lynch auf Gold setzt, und durch die Beifügung von Goldminen die Underperformance eines Ihrer Fonds aufpolieren wollen, muss ja was dran sein an den Gold Minen Aktien.

Hoffe nur das Merrill ungehedgte Goldminen im Aktien Portefeuille hält

Gruss

Thaiguru



http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=1&paget…

17.06.2003

Euro Triple A 70 Fund setzt auf Gold

Merrill Lynch

Die Wertpapieranalysten von Merrill Lynch berichten, dass der Euro Triple A 70 Fund (ISIN LU0109872456/ WKN 939817) derzeit unter anderem in Goldaktien investiert, um seinen Ertrag zu steigern.

Der Fonds strebe größtmögliche Erträge auf Basis des Euro bei gleichzeitigem Risikomanagement an. Er investiere in internationale Aktien mit hoher Marktkapitalisierung sowie in erstklassige internationale Rentenpapiere und biete eine aktive Asset-Allokation. Je nach den Aussichten für die verschiedenen Anlageklassen investiere der Fonds mindestens 35% und höchstens 100% in Aktien. Das Währungsrisiko werde durch flexible Hedging-Strategien abgesichert.

Die Performance leide unter der Untergewichtung bei US-amerikanischen Aktien, sei jedoch durch die Übergewichtung des asiatischen Pazifikraums zum Teil wieder ausgeglichen worden.

Der Fonds sei weiterhin in Goldaktien engagiert, die von einer weltweiten monetären Reflation und US-Dollar-Schwäche profitieren könnten.

Innerhalb des Rentenportfolios bestehe nach wie vor eine starke Präferenz für Anleihen der Euro-Zone gegenüber solchen aus den USA. Der Fonds habe dennoch bisher 2003 2,9% an Wert verloren.

Aktueller Kurs des Fonds mit WKN 939817
http://www.fondscheck.de/kurse/einzelkurse.asp?such=939817

[erdede]

@Thai Guru

...der ===> Der fehlt mir noch

erdede:

[hpoth]

@ ThaiGuru,
heute war in der FAZ zulesen Merrill Lynch kaufte 1 Tonne Gold physich für den Fond wegen den besseren Gewinnaussichten.Nocmals vielen Dank für Deine umfangreiche
Berichte, eine gute Arbeit hier.gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Vielleicht sollten wir ihn ein bisschen ärgern, dann erscheint er schneller im Thread, und Gold schliesst auf Tageshoch?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-2176589.…

Vista Gold Corp. Completes Grant of Option on Silver Resources ...

DENVER, June 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Vista Gold Corp. Toronto, is pleased to announce that it has completed the formal agreement to grant to Silver Standard Resources Inc. (Toronto-VEN: SSO) an option to acquire Vista``s interest in the silver resources hosted in the Maverick Springs project in Nevada. The terms of the agreement are as summarized in Vista``s November 7, 2002 press release. Consistent with the terms of the agreement, Silver Standard has paid U.S. $300,000 to Vista and has also reimbursed Vista approximately U.S. $189,000 for costs incurred in its 2002 drilling program. Vista and Silver Standard are planning an additional drilling program, to commence in the third quarter 2003, designed to expand the gold and silver resources at the project. Maverick Springs is a large Carlin-type gold-silver deposit located at the southeast extension of the Carlin trend.

Vista Gold Corp., based in Littleton, Colorado, evaluates and acquires gold projects with defined gold resources. Additional exploration and technical studies are undertaken to maximize the value of the projects for eventual development. The Corporation``s holdings include the Maverick Springs, Mountain View, Hasbrouck, Three Hills and Hycroft projects in Nevada, the Long Valley project in California, the Paredones Amarillos project in Mexico, and the Amayapampa project in Bolivia.

The statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements involving known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to vary materially from targeted results. Such risks and uncertainties include those described from time to time in the Corporation``s periodic reports, including the annual report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Corporation assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

For further information, please contact Jock McGregor or Jack Engele at [phone], or visit the Vista Gold Corp. website at http://www.vistagold.com

Vista Gold Corp.

© PR Newswire

VISTA GOLD CORPORATION

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/vista-gol…

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Hier noch eine weitere positive Meldung aus England zur zukünftigen Goldpreisentwicklung. Ebenfalls aus dem Hause Merril Lynch.

Evy Hambro, Manager der World Gold and World Mining funds, war bereits schon bullish for Gold, als die Mutterfirma Merrill Linch, durch ihre negativen Aussagen zum Goldpreis, noch extrem baerisch für Gold in Erscheinung getreten ist.

Die sehr gute performance der von Hambro gemanagten Merrill Goldfunds muss wohl in den oberen Etagen schlussendlich doch noch ein Umdenken bewirkt haben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://news.independent.co.uk/business/citywire/story.jsp?st…

Gold keeps on shining through for Merrill Lynch team

18 June 2003

Evy Hambro, the manager of Merrill Lynch`s offshore World Gold and World Mining funds, is optimistic about gold prices and says his funds are well placed to exploit rises.

Full Story
http://www.citywire.co.uk/partner/default.asp?section=0&vid=…

[ThaiGuru]

"Mister Print" gestern kurze Pause, heute wieder in Aktion!



http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm

Temporary Open Market Operations: 06/18/2003
The Desk has entered the market announcing: O/N RRP

Temporary Operations Statistics
Weighted Average Rate 1.218
Stop Out Rate (Lowest Rate Accepted) 1.230
Highest Rate Submitted 1.260
Lowest Rate Submitted 1.210
Total Propositions Submitted (In $Bil.) 5.650
Total Propositions Accepted (In $Bil.) 2.250

Zusätzlich:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/pihome/statistics/domestic.shtml

Securities Lending* for 6/18/2003

SECURITY DESCRIPTION TOTAL PAR LENT WTD. AVG.
FEE RATE

1 1/4 NOTE 2005-05-31 200,000,000 1.00
3 1/4 NOTE 2007-08-15 355,000,000 1.00
5 1/2 NOTE 2009-05-15 74,000,000 1.00
3 5/8 NOTE 2013-05-15 163,000,000 1.17

Value = $792 million

[ThaiGuru]

Interessanter XAU, und Hui Chart mit Kommentar!

Charts von der Stockchartsseite, lassen sich leider nicht mehr direkt verlinken.

Wenn das Schule macht, werde ich bald arbeitslos werden.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID…

[keepitshort]

@ThaiGuru
#6081

der Link zu "Public Charts"
bei www.stockcharts.com war echt gut

allerdings sind Charts ja nur wichtig
um oversold and overbought Marken zu
erkennen.

Die Fundamentaldaten der US-Wirtschaft
die habe ich hier über Links bekommen.
Und die haben mir schon 2 Mal geholfen
bei Goldminen einen Fehltritt auszusitzen.
Bei Charts wäre das ein Stopp-Loss ausgelöst worden
und somit hätte ich wahrscheinlich etwas Geld weniger.

[ThaiGuru]

Ja was haben wir den da schönes?

Mann, oh, Mann, ging das diesmal aber schnell!

Es scheint mir, das Gold Cabal ist heute irgend jemandem, der deren mieses Spiel erkannt zu haben scheint, voll ins Messer gelaufen. Runter auf die 355er Marke, und Schnur stracks wieder fast 8.- Dollars hoch. Tolle Leistung für ein angeblich so überkauftes "Metall" wie Gold. Vor allem wenn man sich den Dollar ansieht, der eigentlich heute gar nicht so stark an Wert gegenüber dem Euro verloren hat.

[manfred1_I]

Vielleicht liegt es am Gold-Dinar.

Wenn jetzt noch ein neuer Handelsblock mit dem
Gold-Dinar entsteht, dann gibt es über kurz oder
lang kein Halten für den Goldpreis mehr.

Durchmesser : 23 Millimeter Gewicht : 4.25 Gramm 22 carats (0.916) Gold

Ab Oktober/November wird Gerüchten zufolge auch die Malaysian Mint diesen Gold Dinar prägen.

[ThaiGuru]

Heute etwas später als sonst, sorry!



June 18 - Gold $356.90 down $5.90 - Silver $4.55 down 6 cents

Too Much Gold Excitement Not Allowed

"The mountain remains unmoved at seeming defeat by the mist." Rabindranath Tagore

(Gold is the mountain, Bill. The mist is just all the noise going on around it. When the smoke and mirrors clear, gold will be seen to be strong, eternal and unfailing. Still as the night, deep as the sea and stronger than the strongest rock.)

Whenever a great deal of excitement about gold builds, the crooks come in and bash it down. They either take gold lower or crush the shares.

Today was one more example of what we have seen far too often over the years. It is most aggravating, which best describes my emotions for the day. As far as The Gold Cartel is concerned, I wonder what adjective is most appropriate to describe their constant efforts to keep gold from going to its natural equilibrium level: desperate or pathetic.

It took a lot of doing yesterday to keep gold from soaring. The open interest rose a sizeable 8240 contracts to 199,642. Containing gold to a $6 move up at its best level of the day, and then taking gold down right on the close, was no accident They were waiting for the big new buyer(s) to finish what they wanted to do and then attacked. Same drill: cap, cap, cap and then slam.

Yesterday’s buyers are all losers as of tonight’s close, as all the gains were given back plus. The goons` gold sell-off late yesterday left a spike pattern on the chart after today’s bombing. That usually means gold will have to do some work before it can seriously challenge $370.

The CRB broke down technically, leaving a head and shoulder top formation on the upside. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the CRB has done that before, only to turn right around and go higher. The 200-day moving average for the spot CRB is 235.28.

CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/63

Interestingly enough, the bonds broke trendline support. Too early to tell whether it will be a prelude to higher interest rates. The powers in Washington and Wall Street don’t want to see that happen – another reason gold had to be crushed today. A sharply rising gold price usually lays waste to economic pundits talking about inflation.

30-year bond
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

The June bond closed down 1 9/32 to 120 22/32.

As long as gold holds $350, it should be set to challenge $370 in the coming weeks. Support comes into play right above $354. With the gold fundamentals so strong, it is difficult for me to see gold staying in the $350’s for too much longer.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

A quiet day for the stock market with the DOW falling 29 and the DOG yelping up another 9. The dollar rally was modest once again, closing at 93.61, up .56. It runs into technical resistance around this level. While strong against the European currencies, the dollar fell against the Loonie, Aussie dollar and yen.

Advisors’ Sentiment Review

June 18th 2003

Bulls to a high since February 2001; bears another 16 year low.

Last week the bears matched the 16.3% reading seen on April 10th 1987, sixteen years ago, and they fell slightly below that reading this time. The bulls were up this week to 60.2% and this is the highest level for them since 2/23/01, when 61.2% of the advisors were bullish.

In both 1987 and 2001 a major drop did not occur right away, but the handwriting was on the wall. There is now a huge 44.1% spread between the bulls and the bears. This compares to the spread of 40.3% seen in 1987, 32.6% that existed in 2001. Markets have rallied nine of the last ten weeks, and just about everyone believes the market will continue to soar. Insiders have now shifted back heavily to the sell side for the last three weeks. Insider selling is also bearish on a current as well as a "year ago" basis. Other current negatives are the large number of buying climaxes the last ten weeks and the two month drop in the short interest. The market has rallied on the positives, including the successful and brief war with Iraq, improved first quarter earnings, super low interest rates and the tax cut. Sentiment readings, coupled with a very overbought indicators, continue to be negative, and we look for a decline by July, but a stronger markets after that. -END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

Today the Fed issued $2.25 Billion in temporary [overnight] repurchase agreements.

Due to an oversight in sending this report yesterday, a $6.5 Billion [June 17th] expiration was omitted from the repo pool total. The corrected repo pool total should have been $31.75 Billion instead of $38Billion.

Accordingly, the new current repo pool total is $34Billion including today`s $2.25 issuance. The other expiration dates and amounts are intact.

The broad view of the Fed`s repo actions reveals that they are attempting to manage both the dollar and the DOW with a pool of repo and ESF [Exchange Stabilization Fund] funding. We can see this today clearly in the support of the dollar while the DOW is left stable to a little down. Several other recent examples of this pattern have been observed suggesting that the Fed cannot lift both the DOW and the dollar especially when the latter is under heavy selling pressure from members of the Multi-Polar world.

The Fed HAS been successful in lifting the DOW from 7,500 to 9,300 sinceMarch but what is their ultimate target? 10,000? 12,000? Probably not that high in so far as they desire cap gains tax revenue as their primary goal in this risky effort.

The DOW is likely being set up to drop later in 2003, in time to record capital gains tax revenue from the 10s of millions of fresh sellers as the DOW is being let back down to the middle seven thousands. This PPT mechanism may just be a money pump for the government aided by financial media propagandists.

My goal is to provide your subscribers as much warning as possible to the downward turning point.

Mike

No central bank is more pro gold than the Banque de France. Trichet as president of the ECB can only be positive for our camp.

June 18, 2003 1:45 PM

Bank of France chief acquitted in trial

PARIS (Reuters) - Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet has been acquitted in a banking scandal trial, removing a major obstacle to him succeeding Wim Duisenberg as president of the European Central Bank.
Reuters


The Chinese are keeping their gold:

http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/67355.htm

No Sellers for Gold Buyback

The first gold buyback in Shanghai in more than 50 years has proven to be a non-event.

As of yesterday, no gold bars were sold back to China Gold Coin Co since the buyback plan started on Monday. It was the first time on China`s mainland in more than five decades that individuals could sell back their gold to the company from which it was originally purchased.

In December, China Gold Coin, the country`s sole wholesaler of gold bars and coins, began a promotion to sell investment-grade bullion in either 50- or 100-gram pieces. It was met with lukewarm response in Shanghai.

"It is not strange that people would be unwilling to sell because the offered price is lower than the price when the bullion was first sold," said Tao Yong, sales manager of China Gold Coin`s Nanjing Road W. outlet, the only shop assigned to conduct the buyback exercise locally.

"People do not want to lose money if it is not an extreme emergency."

The buyback price stood at 93.88 yuan a gram (US$351.77 per ounce) yesterday. The gold bars were originally sold at 105 yuan a gram in December when jitters over the pending Iraq war sent the price for the precious metal near a six-year high of US$357 per ounce on the world market.

China Gold Coin adjusts its prices daily in tandem with the floating mark on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The price is set at 98 percent of the day`s trading price on the exchange.

The introduction of the buyback has signaled the start of the government`s move to gradually deregulate the gold market. Individuals have not been allowed to trade bullion since 1949.

Shanghai Gold Exchange, the only spot gold trading house in China, said it is likely that individual gold trading will start at the end of this year after a complicated process of preparation work is completed.

Individuals will be allowed to buy or sell bullion, or trade in deposit accounts

In December, China Gold Coin, the country`s sole wholesaler of gold bars and coins, began a promotion to sell investment-grade bullion in either 50- or 100-gram pieces. It was met with lukewarm response in Shanghai.

-END-


Dave Lewis

China to the rescue?

Bill;

It looks like the US government is once again in the business of "encouraging" change. Protesters in Iran, given their thirst for freedom, should be encouraged. Of course, protests in Michigan are to be suppressed. Also to be encouraged are the Chinese in their drive, according to Treasury Secretary Snow, towards a floating currency. Is it just coincidental that Gold pulled back on the day Snow "saw" some flexibility in China`s position?

China, at least according to them, has no plans to adopt a floating rate regime. Why, after all, should they opt to take a haircut on their US$ holdings, now in excess of US$300B, real money even to those who can print it.

Perhaps, and here is the hope of the international financiers, China sees that the haircut is worth it to keep the international system of exchange afloat. To the extent that the Yuan remains fixed to the US$, any attempts by the US to devalue their currency will only improve China`s relative terms of trade. One wonders, given Japan`s unwillingness to accept similar medicine, why China should be the one to back down.

What does this have to do with the price of Gold? Eventually, that huge mass of FX reserves will be unwound via changes in trade flows or converted into goods. Hopes of a Yuan revaluation suggest the former, thus, I speculate, the dip in Gold. Yet, for the past few years China has worked to clear the way for private sector ownership in Gold, suggesting the latter eventuality.

A Yuan reval vs. the US$ will buy some time for the, in my view, doomed, international system of exchange. Continuation of current rates of exchange, particularly if associated with rising Chines Gold imports, will hasten the process of disintegration. God, it seems, enjoys his little jokes too. Who would have thought that the price of tea, inter alia, in China, would become a focus on the global monetary authorities.

regards

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com

Chuck checks in:

Quite an impressive day again in the shares. I am still in awe how the market can always rally during the last half hour and then gap up the next morning. Kudos to the riggers.

The action in the golds indicate something awesome around the corner. GSs needs another couple of days and then through $3. Goldcorp is ready to break out here and then we should see gold fly upward even if the dollar strengthens although it is difficult to envision much of a rally.

I am confident that the break in the market especially from the financials will be the catalyst for the precious metals explosion. Chuck


The gold shares held up very well considering the gold bashing. The HUI closed above its 155 breakout at 155.67, down .73, while the XAU dropped .82 to 81.48. Bellwether Newmont only dropped 13 cents to $33.71, well above its big league breakout over $33.

The gold shares remain way undervalued vis-à-vis bullion. Unless gold is really smashed, it ought to be clear sailing ahead.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[erdede]

Hallo Thaiguru,

naja, haben wir knapp das wieder gut gemacht was wir vor zwei verloren haben, die vom Cabal habens heute locker genommen liegt eben noch im schmerzfreien Range

Interessant wird es erst wenn die 375er nachhaltig überwunden werden kann, und da sind wir noch eine halbe Ewigkeit (unter Berücksichtigung der argen Sticheleien unserer werten Freunde vom Cabal) entfernt..

erdede

[manfred1_I]

erdede

deinen Bericht scheint das Cabal übel genommen zu
haben.

[erdede]

@manfred

meinst Du der tägliche Ein- oder Ausbruch im Chart von Comdirect, just vor 20 Uhr...? warts ab!

Nein, nein, die habens sich gemütlich gemacht heute....die kommen wieder bei 364 und unter 370 zum Einsatz...und bei 375 mit Pauken und Trompeten

Diese Schlacht müssten wir gewinnen, damit Gold wieder richtig im Schwung kommt.... bis zur nächsten Margin-Erhöhung oder sonstige Kuriositäten die sie sich dann ausdenken mögen...müssten


erdede

[ThaiGuru]

Bin mir sicher, dass das genau das ist was wir Gold Bugs brauchen.

Eine kräftige Gold Preis Sommer Rally in allen Währungen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru


By Thom Calandra, Editor
CBSMarketWatch.com
June 18, 2003

Gold`s price is on the verge of staging a
powerful summer rally in all currencies,
boosting bullion producers and their more
risky counterparts, exploration companies.

--------------------

For the full commentary:


http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/205

----------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

12:15p ET Thursday, June 19, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Peter Brimelow of CBSMarketWatch wonders why
financial analysts pay so little attention to foreign
exchange and currency valuation issues, and says
the fate of the dollar is tied to China`s currency.
In turn gold`s future is tied to the dance of the
currencies.

Brimelow`s commentary can be found here:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/206

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[Der_Glueckliche]

@thaiguru, #6083:

Hatten wir nicht solche Abwaertsspikes im Forex Anfang Juni mehrfach bevor es abwaerts ging?

[silverpwd]

Diese gerade Linie nach oben finde ich nicht sehr bullish. Ich persönlich mag das aus Erfahrung überhaupt nicht.

[silverpwd]

Ah, ist schon wieder runtergekommen.

[Magniafazulaa]

Sicherlich ist hier bald Geld zu verienen, aber ich weiss nur, dass mir durch mein schon investiertes Geld in die Minen durschnittlich 40-50% Performance am Markt verloren gegangen sind. Stellt sich die Frage, lieber recht behalten oder Geld verdienen. Für das Erstere konnte ich mir bisher nix kaufen.....................der Urlaub wäre umsonst gewesen........

es heisst doch, durch 5% in den 30ern hätte man sein gesamtes Geld wiederbekommen, nur wann hätte man ein und aussteigen müssen.......wer weiss mehr, was könnte die Performance der Minen bis 2010 hervorbringen?

Sonst muss ich mich mal woanders umschauen.........die Nanos?........

[Magniafazulaa]

Godmode sagt........steigende Gold-Preise, wenn die Minen nich bald mitziehen.......the 4U!

[svc]

das sind keine guten news für gold:

Saddam-Vermögen
300 Kilo Gold in der Schweiz

Der irakische Ex-Diktator Saddam Hussein soll ein Vermögen in Höhe von einer Mrd. Schweizer Franken in der Schweiz versteckt haben. Das berichtet die Schweizer Wirtschaftszeitung "Cash".

Zu dem Vermögen gehörten auch rund 300 Kilo Goldbarren. Das Gold liege auf einem Konto der Goldraffinerie Metalor in Neuchatel (Neuenburg).

Das Gold im Handelswert von 4,5 Mio. Franken ist dem Bericht zufolge 1991 vom damaligen irakischen Botschafter in Bern abgegeben worden. Die Diplomaten hätten damals nach Beginn des Golf-Krieges die Botschaft in Bern geschlossen.

Metalor-Geschäftsführer Hans-Jürg Schär hat nach Angaben von "Cash" bestätigt, dass das "Gold im Arbeitsprozess der Raffinerie zirkuliere". Das Unternehmen habe das Schweizer Wirtschaftsministerium über den Goldschatz informiert.

Nach Angaben des Blattes liegen die Umstände des Metalor-Geschäfts im Dunkeln. Unbeantwortet sei die Frage über die Herkunft des Goldes. So werde seit dem irakischen Truppeneinmarsch in Kuwait im August 1990 international nach dem damals gestohlenen Gold gefahndet.

Wie das Blatt weiter berichtet, hat die Schweizer Nationalbank ein offizielles Vermögen des Iraks von 386 Mio. Franken auf Schweizer Konten gemeldet. Außerdem soll die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich in Basel 750 Mio. Franken des alten irakischen Regimes blockiert haben. Nach Schätzungen soll Saddam weltweit ein Vermögen in zweistelliger Milliarden-Höhe versteckt haben.

Die Resolution 1483 des UN-Sicherheitsrates vom 22. Mai sieht vor, dass die konfiszierten Gelder sofort für den Wiederaufbau des Landes transferiert werden müssen.

Saddam-Vermögen
300 Kilo Gold in der Schweiz

Der irakische Ex-Diktator Saddam Hussein soll ein Vermögen in Höhe von einer Mrd. Schweizer Franken in der Schweiz versteckt haben. Das berichtet die Schweizer Wirtschaftszeitung "Cash".

Zu dem Vermögen gehörten auch rund 300 Kilo Goldbarren. Das Gold liege auf einem Konto der Goldraffinerie Metalor in Neuchatel (Neuenburg).

Das Gold im Handelswert von 4,5 Mio. Franken ist dem Bericht zufolge 1991 vom damaligen irakischen Botschafter in Bern abgegeben worden. Die Diplomaten hätten damals nach Beginn des Golf-Krieges die Botschaft in Bern geschlossen.

Metalor-Geschäftsführer Hans-Jürg Schär hat nach Angaben von "Cash" bestätigt, dass das "Gold im Arbeitsprozess der Raffinerie zirkuliere". Das Unternehmen habe das Schweizer Wirtschaftsministerium über den Goldschatz informiert.

Nach Angaben des Blattes liegen die Umstände des Metalor-Geschäfts im Dunkeln. Unbeantwortet sei die Frage über die Herkunft des Goldes. So werde seit dem irakischen Truppeneinmarsch in Kuwait im August 1990 international nach dem damals gestohlenen Gold gefahndet.

Wie das Blatt weiter berichtet, hat die Schweizer Nationalbank ein offizielles Vermögen des Iraks von 386 Mio. Franken auf Schweizer Konten gemeldet. Außerdem soll die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich in Basel 750 Mio. Franken des alten irakischen Regimes blockiert haben. Nach Schätzungen soll Saddam weltweit ein Vermögen in zweistelliger Milliarden-Höhe versteckt haben.

Die Resolution 1483 des UN-Sicherheitsrates vom 22. Mai sieht vor, dass die konfiszierten Gelder sofort für den Wiederaufbau des Landes transferiert werden müssen.

[ThaiGuru]

Trading the Gold-Stock Bull

While the echo bubble in general equities booms, fueled by the blundering fools who must have slept through the hard valuation lessons of NASDAQ 2000, the stealth bull market in gold stocks continues unabated.

The HUI unhedged gold-stock index soared up to a new bull-market-to-date high this week, adding to the dazzling gains with which gold-stock investors have already been blessed in the past few years.

Even though the gold-stock bull has been galloping higher since late 2000 now, it is still running under the radars of most investors and speculators in stealth mode. I am almost certain that if you randomly surveyed a large group of American investors that less than 10% would even be aware of the massive gold-stock bull market and probably only around 1% have actually deployed capital to ride this awesome young bull.

The continuing relative obscurity of the gold-stock bull to the thundering herd is great news though, as it continues to bless us contrarians with fantastic opportunities in this long-neglected arena. Until the public leaps into the fray near the end of the gold-stock bull and shoves prices stratospheric, until CNBC is “all gold stocks all the time”, vast sums of capital will be won by the diligent black-sheep contrarians.

With new bull-market-to-date highs in the HUI gloriously carved this week with practically no fanfare, contrarian investing and speculation opportunities in the unfolding gold-stock bull still abound. This week I would like to take a look at the gold-stock bull as well as offer some thoughts on a strategy my partners and I have been using to actively trade it.

First though, feast your eyes on this gorgeous chart! It strikes me as unbelievably absurd that the echo bubble in general equities, a measly 26% S&P 500 bear-market rally over 3 months, has reignited a mini-speculative mania approaching NASDAQ 2000 insanity. Meanwhile a gargantuan 335% primary bull market in gold stocks over 31 months remains widely unknown and totally ignored!



On Tuesday the HUI unhedged gold-stock index closed at 156.40, its highest closing level since September 1997! A major new interim high in a multi-year primary bull market is always a big deal, and this one is no exception. Can you imagine the hype and fanfare from the financial world if a popular sector index like the SOX semiconductor index hit a new six-year high? It would be deafening!

Nevertheless, one of the perpetual curses of the markets is that the majority will always miss new primary bull markets until the very end, when they will get suckered in near the top, ignite a speculative mania, and promptly lose most of their capital in the resulting bust. This primary gold-stock bull will ultimately play out the same way, with the majority being unaware of its magnificence until right before The End.

The fact that this powerful gold-stock bull still remains generally unknown today is wonderful news for the small remnant of contrarians who would actually rather buy low and sell high instead of following the mindless short-term thrashings of the great mainstream thundering herd. As always only the rare contrarians are willing to look where the majority is not to find and ride tomorrow’s Great Bull market rather than futilely chasing the decaying corpse of yesterday’s Great Bull.

The primary driver of this new gold-stock bull is the rising price of gold itself. While it is exceedingly difficult for most mature companies to grow earnings rapidly, which ultimately drive stock prices, unhedged gold-mining corporations witness spectacular earnings growth during major bull markets in gold.

I explained the breathtaking leverage of gold-stock earnings to gold in detail in my “Gold Stock Investing 101” essay of last spring if this crucial concept is unfamiliar to you. In a nutshell, this earnings leverage works in two primary ways.

First, even as the price of gold rises, the costs of a given company to mine it generally stay the same. A company that can mine gold for $325 and sell it at $350 today earns $25/oz in profits for its shareholders. But when the gold price rises to $450, for example, it still only costs this company $325 to mine an ounce of gold so its profits soar to $125/oz. Profits soaring from $25 to $125/oz, a massive 400% gain, lead to much higher gold-stock prices as investors and speculators bid up the gold stocks to participate in this profits windfall.

Second, higher gold prices lead to higher production over time for many individual gold mines. Within a single mine, some gold is cheaper to chisel out of the bowels of the Earth and some is more expensive. A mine may have some deposits that cost $250/oz to mine, some at $325/oz, some at $375/oz, etc. At $350 gold it is obviously silly to spend $375 to liberate an ounce of gold from rock. But at $450 it makes a lot of sense to go after that same $375 gold for the new $75/oz profit. As the price of gold rises many gold companies can increase their production as they begin mining marginal gold that was simply unprofitable at lower gold prices.

The combination of this first and second-stage gold-stock leverage to the price of gold can be breathtaking. Gold-stock profits rapidly spiral higher and higher with the rising price of gold and gold-stock prices follow. This process can last for many years in a primary gold and gold-stock bull like we are witnessing today. The chart above highlights only the very earliest stages in this virtuous circle that leads to vast riches for the contrarians willing and able to get out and ride a new bull early before their neighbors figure it out.

Unfortunately it is not as simple as just buying any old gold stock to ride the gold-stock bull though! Gold stocks can be divided into the ranks of the unhedged and hedgers. Unhedged gold companies do not use derivatives to lock in a future price for their product. Hedged gold companies, on the other hand, enter into extensive derivatives contracts to lock in the future selling price for their gold.

Since the hedgers fix their future gold sales price they cannot fully participate in a gold bull. If they contractually agree to sell their gold at $375/oz, for example, and gold soars to $450, their shareholders are out of luck. They have to honor their hedging contracts and sell gold well below the prevailing market price. The more hedges a company burdens its shareholders with, the less it will participate in a major bull market and the less attractive it becomes to investors and speculators.

The charts above and below really drive home this crucial lesson. While the blue line is the unhedged HUI index which is forging new highs today, the red line is the heavily hedged XAU gold-stock index. In general gold stocks in the HUI are unhedged, they can fully reap the higher market prices in a major gold bull. Conversely most of the gold stocks in the XAU are heavily hedged, they have bet that the gold bull won’t last so they’ve already contractually locked in selling prices for much of their future production.

As in everything financial, the free markets are the ultimate arbiter determining the wisdom or folly of hedging. Since the gold-stock bull began in November 2000, the unhedged HUI has run up a blistering 335% trough-to-peak as its companies are not bound by derivatives contracts and can fully capitalize on the rising price of gold.

You will note above that the blue HUI line on the chart is nicely leveraging gold’s run in line with its historical precedent. The last time the HUI traded in the 150s in 1997 was also the last time gold traded in the $350s. Only fully unhedged gold stocks can seize the day for their shareholders and realize vastly higher profits thanks to higher gold prices.

The heavily-hedged XAU, on the other hand, is languishing. It is not doing much better today than it was when gold broke through $300 early last year. From its ultimate low in November 2000 until this week the XAU hedged gold-stock index is “only” up 97%. Now 97% isn’t a bad absolute return, especially considering the horrific Great Bear bust in general equities, but it pales in comparison to the unhedged HUI’s gargantuan 335% run over the same period!

This radical bifurcation in the gold-stock market is even more apparent in a more recent chart only encompassing the gold and gold-stock bull markets. Incidentally, if you would like to see some larger and more-detailed versions of the charts in this essay, we posted some of our raw research graphs at www.zealllc.com/charts/gold.htm on the Web.



I find it extremely provocative that the heavily-hedged XAU and the unhedged HUI traded at similar index levels in the early days of the gold-stock bull market in late 2000 and early 2001. The convergence of the red and blue lines above during this time period is quite striking, as is their later divergence as the unhedged HUI flew higher with gold and left the hedge-burdened XAU choking on its dust.

Since these two indices both began the gold bull at the same general levels, I believe that the difference in price between the XAU and HUI indices today can be considered a “hedge tax”. There are great gold mining companies in both the XAU and the HUI, but the XAU hedgers sold-out their shareholders’ gold at lower contractually fixed prices while the unhedged HUI members’ shareholders have fully participated in the bull market to date.

With the HUI up 335% as of this week and the XAU only up 97%, the total hedge tax at this point in the game is a breathtaking 238%! How would you like to miss an additional 238% gain over a few years simply because you made the mistake of betting on hedgers rather than the unhedged? For the life of me I can’t understand why one single investor on Earth, either retail or institutional, wastes their time and capital betting on the heavy hedgers when their performance has been so dismal in comparison to the unhedged!

The moral of this story is, if you want to invest or speculate in gold stocks, make darned sure that the horses you bet on don’t sell future production via hedging contracts today. Only place your own scarce capital at risk in totally unhedged companies. If you are not a direct investor, absolutely insist that your fund managers only buy totally unhedged companies. While hedgers will earn you money in a gold bull, ultimately their returns will only be a fraction of what the wonderfully unhedged will offer.

While the unhedged HUI’s long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends shown above are all superbly bullish, the hedged XAU is stinking up the gold-stock world by trading sideways for over a year now. Do not forget this expensive lesson in hedging!

Now that we have celebrated the HUI’s awesome new bull-to-date highs and exposed the enormous hedge-tax cost of betting on the wrong horses in this race, I would like to discuss actively trading this gold-stock bull. While I do strongly believe that investors should always maintain a never-traded core position in gold stocks as long as the gold supply and demand fundamentals continue to favor this Great Bull, it can be even more profitable to actively trade a portion of one’s portfolio.

Unlike the general equity markets, the gold-stock market is so small and unloved today that there are few external trading indicators to use. As such, we contrarian gold-stock speculators can’t rely on sentiment indicators like the VIX and have to build our own tools. I have been working on one such gold-stock speculation indicator for many months now based on the moving-average convergence and divergence of gold itself.

This tool is very simple. It merely involves watching the relative distance between the 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average of gold itself. I explained it in more depth relative to trading gold in my recent essay “Trading the Gold Bull” and I call it the Gold 50/200 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). It is calculated by dividing the 50dma of gold by its 200dma and converting the result into a percentage.

If you closely examine the chart above, you can see the white 50dma and black 200dma of gold. Since mid-2001 or so, just like in all primary bull markets, the 50dma of gold has been above its 200dma. Sometimes the 50dma is relatively high above the 200dma and sometimes the two moving averages converge, but interestingly their action creates an exceptionally promising gold-stock speculation indicator.

The light blue line below on our next chart shows this Gold 50/200 MACD in percentage terms. A reading of 6%, for example, means that the 50dma of gold is 6% over gold’s 200dma at that given moment in time. A negative Gold 50/200 MACD means that gold’s 50dma traded under its 200dma, something that hasn’t happened since very early in the unfolding gold bull market.

The relationship between the Gold 50/200 MACD and the wondrous HUI unhedged gold-stock index is quite striking. There is no more important driver of gold-stock prices than the price of gold, at least in the early pre-mania stages of a gold-stock bull, and this trading concept really capitalizes on this central truth of gold-stock speculating.



As in any bull market, gold itself goes up and down alternating between dazzling new uplegs and normal healthy bull-market corrections. As the two earlier charts in this essay clearly showed, gold stocks tend to move in lock-step with gold over the long-term. If gold is up then so are gold stocks, and if gold is weak gold stocks languish too. The interplay between gold’s 50dma and 200dma tracks and smoothes these perpetual gold oscillations.

Interestingly, the Gold 50/200 MACD tends to be lower when gold stocks are poised for another upleg and higher when a pullback is due. Gold-stock speculators can use this Gold 50/200 MACD to help them gain a better understanding of when they should jump back into gold stocks full throttle and when they should ratchet up their stop-losses and prepare to be stopped out.

Since the gold-stock bull launched in late 2000, each time the Gold 50/200 MACD was moving down from an interim peak and pierced 2% proved to be an excellent time to buy gold stocks. This is our gold-stock buy signal, a Gold 50/200 MACD falling under 2% following a gold pullback. A Gold 50/200 MACD of 2% simply means that gold’s 50dma is 2% higher than its 200dma on any given trading day, an easy concept to understand.

The green arrowheads mark these Gold 50/200 MACD gold-stock buy signals. There have only been three of these excellent signals flashed so far in this gold bull, so they don’t tend to happen often. You will note on the chart that each time this buy signal was thrown the HUI tended to be just starting a major new upleg, quite near the ideal time to throw long to ride gold stocks for a few months or so. These buy signals didn’t catch the exact troughs, but they were pretty darned close and very impressive.

In gold-stock terms, when the Gold 50/200 MACD heads back down under 2% it is time to deploy fresh gold-stock positions. All you need to do is pick a quality group of unhedged gold stocks, around a half-dozen or so, equally divide your capital into each one, and pull the trigger.

On this initial buy signal you should run trailing stop losses of around 20% or so on your gold-stock positions. I personally prefer close-only stop-losses, meaning only daily closing prices are considered, but these aren’t popular outside the futures world so normal intraday trailing stop losses around 20% are also acceptable. Your initial stops can also be tailored to the volatility of individual unhedged gold stocks in your portfolio. For example, you may run a 25% trailing stop on a chaotic junior company while running 15% on a large major producer. 20% is merely a guideline.

After you buy your unhedged gold-stock speculations on the Gold 50/200 MACD buy signal, all you have to do is sit back and wait and watch the gold stocks run higher. Long-term gold-stock investors can also add to their core positions on this signal, as it tends to catch the gold-stock troughs in the HUI rather well.

While there aren’t Gold 50/200 MACD sell signals per se, there are neutral signals marked above by the yellow arrowheads. These neutral signals occur when the Gold 50/200 MACD heads back above 5% as a gold/gold-stock upleg continues to unfold. The purpose of these neutral signals is to warn speculators to be on their guard that a particular gold upleg is growing long in the tooth. You don’t need to sell outright here, as a bull market can always surprise on the upside, but you do need to consider ratcheting up your trailing stops in anticipation of being stopped out.

Once this 5% Gold 50/200 MACD threshold is crossed, immediately raise all your trailing stops on gold-stock positions to at least 10%, and maybe even a really tight 5% if the run-up has been particularly sharp. The idea of ratcheting up trailing stops rather than selling outright is designed to enable you to stay in a gold-stock upleg as long as possible, until the upleg itself noses over. Yes, you may get stopped-out early on a particularly strong head-fake that blitzes your stops, but nevertheless you will consistently earn excellent profits while minimizing your risk.

For example, Rally 1 above using this speculation methodology yielded HUI gains of 114%, very impressive. The more recent Rally 2 launched late last year managed a respectable 17% gain. These gains are computed using 5% trailing stops on the HUI. If looser 10% trailing stops triggered on the neutral signal were used, the gains dropped modestly to 102% and 11%, still nothing to scoff at.

It is also possible to beat the HUI gains by carefully picking elite unhedged gold stocks with the best prospects. As a real-world example, in our Zeal Intelligence newsletter we were blessed to ride Rally 2 to an actual realized gold-stock portfolio gain of 31% on our picks, even though the HUI only managed a 17% rally during this period. As in any bull market, the base index gains can be multiplied by careful stock picking.

During Rally 1 last year we were very blessed to have one of our Zeal Intelligence gold stocks run up to a 372% realized gain and another to +158% realized. The HUI index results are a great baseline for performance, but are certainly not a limit. The idea of the Gold 50/200 MACD signals helps gold-stock speculators buy near the right time and ratchet-up their stops near the right time and the realized gains can be dramatic.

The latest Gold 50/200 MACD buy signal occurred in early May. Since then this flagship unhedged gold-stock index is up 20%, a very impressive number in such a short period of time. Yet again at the very moment when many were predicting a plunge in gold and gold stocks after Washington’s annexation of Iraq, the Gold 50/200 MACD buy signal proved correct and contrarians who heeded it have been well rewarded.

In our new anytime Zeal Speculator alert/update service, our current unrealized gold-stock portfolio gains in this Rally 3 so far were sitting at +33% as of June 19th, which isn’t too bad at all. In our monthly Zeal Intelligence newsletter, which is limited to buying and selling on month ends due to its fixed publication schedule, our current Rally 3 gold-stock picks were up 20% as of June 19th. We will certainly continue tracking and trading gold stocks based on these signals for our Zeal Speculator and Zeal Intelligence subscribers.

If you are a contrarian investor or speculator and you are interested in gold stocks, you ought to consider honoring us with a subscription! In our current June issue of our acclaimed Zeal Intelligence monthly, I discussed the coming Gold Exchange-Traded Fund in depth, an immensely important development for the gold and gold-stock markets. The coming gold ETF could light a rocket under gold stocks and gold! We will fire out a complimentary copy of this current June issue to all new e-mail subscribers to ZI.

As contrarians today we are very blessed to be riding the awesome gold-stock bull. Unlike the current sentiment-driven mini-mania in general equities, the gold and gold-stock fundamentals are sound and the foundation of the bull market is strong. Long after the Great Bear eviscerates today’s thick-skulled fools buying tech stocks at NASDAQ-2000-like bubble valuations, the powerful gold-stock bull market will still be running higher.

The new bull-to-date HUI high this week was wonderful to see! Gold-stock investors and speculators staying away from the hedgers have already reaped great gains and will see their capital multiply many times over before this gold-stock bull fully runs its course.

You can ride this gold bull for the long haul, or you can trade it, or you can do both! Whatever you do though, don’t let this next Great Bull market pass you by!

Adam Hamilton, CPA

June 20, 2003

So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence, that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research. Please consider joining us each month for tactical trading details and more in our premium Zeal Intelligence service at … www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm

Questions for Adam? I would be more than happy to address them through my private consulting business. Please visit http://www.zealllc.com/financial.htm for more information.

Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at [e-mail]. Due to my staggering and perpetually increasing e-mail load, I regret that I am not able to respond to comments personally. I will read all messages though and really appreciate your feedback!

Copyright 2000 - 2003 Zeal Research (www.ZealLLC.com)

[ThaiGuru]

June 20 - Gold $356.10 down $5.20 - Silver $4.52 down 4 cents

MIDAS From Arlington, Virginia – More Noise

"To Dare is to risk losing your foothold for a moment. Not to Dare is to risk losing yourself." ...Soren Kierkegaard

This was a good day to spend on a plane and not be aggravated by cabal & co.`s requited bashing of gold. I am in Arlington, Virginia, right outside of Washington D.C., to speak at an American Free Press conference. Have to laugh. Just looked at the program and the title of my presentation on the conference program is America’s Incredible Monetary Bubble. Wonder where they got that from?

So much for escaping the $350’s, which lasted only a day. My other comment on Wednesday turns out to be the more appropriate one: we need to do some work in this price area. The Gold Cartel has now blasted gold very hard three times recently. They are very intent to keep gold below $370 and to diminish a budding gold fever - especially with US interest rates headed for close to zero.

With US interest rates disappearing, The Working Group on Financial Markets has to be petrified about the prospects for our dollar. Thus, with the financial market community looking for a 25 to 50 point basis cut in the Fed Funds rate, they surely intervened in the dollar today, taking it 81 points higher to 94.45, nullifying yesterday’s technical failure. The euro lost 1.02 falling to 115.76.

Japanese bonds were crushed this week, while their US counterpart was also trashed. The 30 yr. long bond closed down another 20 to 118 18/32. The PPT has to be concerned about that trend continuing and forcing mortgage rates up, which might derail any possible economic recovery in the States. Therefore, gold must be kept at bay as long as possible as far as they are concerned. Can’t have a falling bond market AND a rising gold price. That would surely have the bond vigilantes yelping about coming inflation, not deflation.

The bad news for the crooks is the physical gold market is on fire with VERY strong orders coming in from India and the Middle East. In addition, the gold fundamentals just keep getting better. It seems to me that gold ought to turn around very soon and go right back up again.

Having said that, it had better do so early next week from a technical perspective. We don’t want that bullish flag formation, which is still intact, to break down and become a short-term top formation.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday, June 20, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.25, PM $4.92 with world gold at $360.75 and $360. Above legal import levels. The rupee hit a 27 month high v. the dollar, and the country is enjoying the euphoria of the successful float of the local auto producer, Maruti. Bombay was badly disrupted today by flooding caused by the arrival of the Monsoon (a situation to which residents of the US East Coast will relate). In India, arrival of the Monsoon, slightly late this year, is also a psychological positive.

Gold traded above the NY close for a sustained period in the early Asian day, only losing this level finally when Europe became active. On volume equal to 39,586 Comex lots, 46% above yesterday, open interest rose the equivalent of 2,195 Comex. The active contract closed up 6 yen, having at one point being up 17 yen and $US gold went out down 50c from the NY close, at $360.60. There are reports of the Trade houses being active in arbitrage, which suggests some interest on the part of the Japanese public. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 43,000 contracts.)

Standard London says:

“Gold’s performance continues to bewilder many professionals after another day (‘s) swings and u-turns”.

The erratic nature of the dollar’s short term behavior is clearly the main contributor to this (especially this morning). However, it is also apparent that those not close to the Middle East and Sub-Continent physical markets are prone to being wrong-footed. Also, there is an increasingly long and dark shadow being cast by the remarkable performance of gold shares, with the HUI reaching a 5-year high yesterday. This has motivated the long-term chartist Martin Pring, generally a stock and dollar bull at present, to modify his position on gold:

“Gold shares have been extremely strong in the last couple of weeks and may well be leading the gold price higher. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI), for example, has just broken to a new bull market high….

The benchmarks for the August contract are $366 and $355 since this is where the two trendlines…are currently residing. We are still leaning to the bearish side…but would not argue with a high risk upside breakout given the strength of the shares.”

With Indian premiums where they are, and reports coming in of active buying from other Middle Eastern markets, gold seems unlikely to weaken much unless the dollar can stage a decisive rally. With the dollar index at 93.81 right now, gold would be at $378.50, had it matched the index since the turn of the year. All other things being equal, non-$US based buyers will eventually push it there.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Der_Glueckliche]

COTs (Commitment of Traders) vom 17.6.2003:

Die Kommerziellen halten netto 105.000 Kontrakte (zu je 100 Unzen)short.

Bei ueber 100.000 Kontrakten netto short geht`s normalerweise anschliessend mit dem Goldpreis runter.

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

Here is my latest repo total chart for your review.

At the risk of cluttering up the chart, I have nonetheless added two 30-Day moving average trend lines to better track the actions of the DOW [Light Green] and the repo pool total .



Observe the excellent mid-March correlation in trend reversals for both these moving averages when they each turned upwards at the beginning of the putative "Iraq War Rally". Today we are seeing a top formation in the repo totals which I referred to on Thursday. I am expecting this downward movement in repo pool totals to continue and shortly the DOW should follow the repo pool down. Even though there are no big expirations the Fed hasn`t been adding much to the pool lately.
A word about reverse repurchase agreements. A thoughtful subscriber mentioned that these operations drain funds from the system so why include them in the repo pool total?

It is true that primary dealers don`t get direct use of these funds but I include them in the repo pool because the Fed`s "Desk" still has control of the funds until the stated expiration, usually overnight or in today`s $3.5Billion case, over the weekend. Thus, until the funds completely expire they are considered to be viable for use [normally as Desk collateral].

The Fed has altered it`s repurchase agreement pattern when measured from November and we should be aware that this action probably signals an upcoming change in the DOW`s direction if the working hypothesis is correct. The repo total moving average appears to have topped [red trend line].

We must continue to watch this important change.

Mike

The US economic news continues to be OK to lousy to potentially disastrous:

Foreclosures Hit Record High in 1st Qtr

June 20 - NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgages in foreclosure climbed to a record high in the first three months of 2003 as job losses and personal bankruptcies forced more people out of their homes, a mortgage industry group said on Friday

Home loans in the process of foreclosure climbed to 1.2 percent of all mortgages in the first quarter, beating the previous high of 1.18 percent set in the fourth quarter of 2002, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said.

June 20 - DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. said on Friday it will sell about $13 billion of bonds, one of the largest debt offerings ever, to help shore up its U.S. pension plan which ended last year underfunded by $19.3 billion.

GM shares were up nearly 2.5 percent as the world`s largest automaker tackled one of its biggest challenges: a massive pension deficit, the largest of any U.S. company. –END-

And what does GM do when the stock market tanks again by the end of this year, sell another $13 billion of bonds?

June 20, 2003
Freddie Mac Derivative Position Grew
By REUTERS

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Freddie Mac, the U.S. government-sponsored mortgage financier under investigation for its accounting, grew its derivatives-trading positions at the end of September to nearly $700 billion, up 46 percent from 2000, The Wall Street Journal Online reported late on Thursday.

Citing company documents, the newspaper said the magnitude of Freddie Mac`s derivatives position -- financial contracts that protect it against changes such as interest rate swings -- is even greater than that of its larger rival, Fannie Mae, whose position is valued at $657 billion.

A representative of Freddie Mac did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Earlier, The Journal reported that Freddie Mac may restate earnings for the past few years higher by between $1 billion and $3 billion, with a corresponding drop in future years, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. The company declined to comment on the report, saying it would be speculative to give an estimate of its restatement.

Freddie Mac said in January it planned a three-year restatement of earnings in part because of its use of derivatives.

-END-

What is really going on at Freddy Mac?

From the Daily Reckoning:

"Total consumer debt represents 90% of personal income - the highest level 50 years," Avera Global Partners observes. "Additionally, the debt service burden (interest and principal payments as a percent of personal income) stands near an all-time high despite the dramatic decline in interest rates over the past 24 months. There are two risks with such a high level of debt outstanding. One is higher interest rates. If the economy recovers and the yield curve begins to shift upward, the impact on disposable income at the household level would be potentially crippling. The second risk is an overextended consumer and the subsequent impact on consumer spending trends." –END-

Barrick, Bush and the establishment:

Hi Bill,

This may be old news to you but I wanted to pass it on. This is an excerpt from an article off of Greg Palast`a website about Cynthia McKinney.

Michelle

After George Bush Senior left the White House, he became an advisor and lobbyist for a Canadian gold-mining company, Barrick Gold. Hey, a guy’s got to work. But there were a couple of questions about Barrick, to say the least. For example, was Barrick’s Congo gold mine funding both sides of a civil war and perpetuating that bloody conflict? Only one Congressperson demanded hearings on the matter.

You’ve guessed: Cynthia McKinney.

That was covered in the . .. . well, it wasn’t covered at all in the U.S. press.

McKinney contacted me at the BBC. She asked if I’d heard of Barrick. Indeed, I had. Top human rights investigators had evidence that a mine that Barrick bought in 1999 had, in clearing their Tanzanian properties three years earlier, bulldozed mine shafts . . . burying about 50 miners alive.

I certainly knew Barrick: They’d sued the Guardian for daring to run a story I’d written about the allegations of the killings. Barrick never sued an American paper for daring to run the story, because no American paper dared.

The primary source for my story, an internationally famous lawyer named Tundu Lissu, was charged by the Tanzanian police with sedition, and arrested, for calling for an investigation. McKinney has been trying to save his life with an international campaign aimed at Barrick.

That was another of her mistakes.

The New York Times wrote about McKinney that Atlanta’s “prominent Black leaders – including Julian Bond, the chairman of the NAACP and former Mayor Maynard Jackson – who had supported Ms. McKinney in the past – distanced themselves from her this time.”

Really? Atlanta has four internationally recognized black leaders. Martin Luther King III did not abandon McKinney. I checked with him. Nor did Julian Bond (the Times ran a rare retraction on their website at Bond’s request). But that left Atlanta’s two other notables: Vernon Jordan and Andrew Young. Here, the Times had it right; no question that these two black faces of the Atlanta Establishment let McKinney twist slowly in the wind – because, the Times implied, of her alleged looniness.

But maybe there was another reason Young and Jordan let McKinney swing. Remember Barrick? George Bush’s former gold-mining company, the target of McKinney’s investigations? Did I mention to you that Andy Young and Vernon Jordan are both on Barrick’s payroll? Well, I just did.

-END-

Bill,

From today`s Midas:

"Puzzlingly, the very experienced gold analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston has downgraded gold and gold shares this morning in a discussion which reportedly does not discuss the dollar."

That is very interesting, because First Boston just bought USD $1 million worth of Goldcorp shares today (75,000 shares).

As you`ll see from the two attached images, I can move a cursor to any part of the chart to see who traded at that time. Today at 09:55 on the Canadian market (G.TO) CSFB traded 25,000 shares, and then again at 12:02 they traded 50,100 shares. The other big trade of the day for Goldcorp was 44,000 shares by CIBC bank.



I wonder if this is another case of a securities firm putting out garbage information for their retail clients and then providing contrary information for special clients.

Robert Ames

From a little birdie:

Bill,

The recently announced Cortez Hills discovery is becoming quite a hot topic in Nevada. Rumors are flying about the deposit being another "Goldstrike". Talk is that the deposit now extends below the Pediment deposit and north to the Cortez pit, and that Placer hit spectacular drill intercepts of 200 to 300 feet of 1/2 oz. per ton material. Have been hearing about it being a highly robust deposit in the 20 million oz. range and that Placer has completed a preliminary pit with economics in the $150/oz. range.

If this is true, this is a watershed development for Placer and Kennecott and for the State of Nevada.

-END-

It could also be a watershed for J-Pacific Gold, one of my favorite gold exploration holdings. Their properties are adjacent to the discovery zone.

Chuck checks in and says it better than I:

Bill:

I`ll try to have something more substantive this weekend, but today capped off the typical action in the gold market especially as contrasted with regular stocks. Note that the stock market opened higher every single day this week and most of the foreign bourses gapped up day after day. This has been the pattern for weeks now. Buying collectively or selling collectively is generally a hallmark of the more impulsive and unsophisticated player.

Now contrast this with the golds if you can look them up in Yahoo, and you notice an almost complete opposite reaction. For instance, this week Newmont even though it made a multi-year high, opened down every single day. This is a reflection of a reaction to a lower gold price, but it didn`t affect Newmont which has continued to lead the golds up. The reason Newmont is so significant is that it is the most liquid and the one which will first attract the funds. The smaller juniors will follow very shortly.

The strength in the dollar continues to draw in heavy put buying in the gold future options. I have never seen such a persistent bearishness as at this time. I believe that gold`s best correlation will be the financial markets as it represents real money and safety, and when the rest of the markets begin to unravel, gold will move contrarily and historically. My sense is that it will go far beyond what we are expecting as it did in the 1971-74 period. I believe it is in the early stages of an exponential move, just as it was back then.

We might have a short period of rest, but given the very poor technical condition of the stock and bond markets, it won`t be long. Chuck

The charging gold shares took a breather, backing off a bit on the gold bashing. The HUI sank 2.75 to 153.72 and the XAU dropped 1.22 to 80.65. Adam Hamilton’s latest on the HUI and XAU at The Kiki Table is a must read for all gold share investors.

As I read this MIDAS and review what is REALLY going on in the US economy and US foreign affairs, I cannot help but salivate about what’s in store for the gold price in the months ahead. All The Gold Cartel is doing at the moment is creating a lot of noise, desperately trying to stave off the inevitable. They have backed themselves into a corner and are running out of options and physical gold supply to keep the price from going up. The surging physical market is going to eat their lunch as the summer months drag on.

In addition, macro-economic events are going to make it almost impossible to stave off investors turning to gold. There are just too many reasons to own the stuff. The powerful gold share action recently is an indication of what is to come. The reasons to own gold and the gold shares are incredibly compelling with the gold fundamentals a “10+.” More and more investors are seeing the obvious without Wall Street’s disingenuous guidance.

It won’t be long before the gold shares are off to races again.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

This could be BIG news and have not seen it discussed, NATURALLY!"

Posted: Wednesday, June 18, 2003
By: Roy S. Carson

VHeadline.com editor & publisher Roy S. Carson writes:

A move by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias to replace the US$ with the €uro is seen as upsetting Washington more than when Iraq`s Saddam Hussein started using the €uro for oil transactions last November ... precipitating the US-led action to invade Iraq. Beltway bullies are now said to be angered by Venezuela`s decision to barter oil with thirteen other Latin American countries, dealing moves to dollarize South America currencies. Intelligence reports say that while the US was able to pull the wool over the international community and ally with Britain`s Blair to bulldoze action against former Iran War ally Hussein, the situation with Venezuela is proving more difficult.

For supposed links with Cuba`s Castro and Libya`s Khadaffi, the United States is loathe to do more than to give subversive support to anti-Chavez elements in Venezuela fighting against the Venezuelan President`s domestic war against political and economic corruption which have permeated the South American country for the last half-century.

International finance experts see how the US dollar has been devaluing against the €uro, as important players on the international scene convert to the European currency for more stable transactions ... Russia, China, North Korea and Malaysia have begun holding €uros as important hedgings in their foreign exchange reserves as faith in American greenbacks floats down the river.

CIA and other intel organizations, including Britain`s MI5, now fear that the next step is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is about to switch to €uros ... the immediate effect would be a massive devaluation, perhaps sparking of domino-effect devaluations worldwide in US$-related foreign reserves and foreign debt calculations.

With a massive budget deficit, the United States is running scared of latest intel that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the brink of converting to the €uros and the opinion held by many OPEC ministers is that the conversion is an inevitability ... the only question left is WHEN?

Arab sources claim that €uro conversion across the Middle and Far East is a rational step to counteract the United States` capacity to "wage further illegal wars (a.k.a. State-sponsored terrorism)" around the world and that any prolonged occupation of Iraq by US/British forces ... and any move towards withdrawal of Iraq from the OPEC cartel ... will only precipitate "remedial action" by like-minded Arab nations to protect their own best interests over Washington`s.

A significant step in this direction is that Iran is contemplating switching to the €uro and, as a result, is the latest object of United States undiplomatic interference ... an intel sources says "they are stimulating opposition forces, making covert threats ... the next step is destabilization and quasi-liberation warfare under the pretext of promoting US-style democracy but essentially aimed at maintaining the US dollar as a global transaction currency."

www.lemetropolecafe.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">

VHeadline.com editor & publisher Roy S. Carson writes:

A move by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias to replace the US$ with the €uro is seen as upsetting Washington more than when Iraq`s Saddam Hussein started using the €uro for oil transactions last November ... precipitating the US-led action to invade Iraq. Beltway bullies are now said to be angered by Venezuela`s decision to barter oil with thirteen other Latin American countries, dealing moves to dollarize South America currencies. Intelligence reports say that while the US was able to pull the wool over the international community and ally with Britain`s Blair to bulldoze action against former Iran War ally Hussein, the situation with Venezuela is proving more difficult.

For supposed links with Cuba`s Castro and Libya`s Khadaffi, the United States is loathe to do more than to give subversive support to anti-Chavez elements in Venezuela fighting against the Venezuelan President`s domestic war against political and economic corruption which have permeated the South American country for the last half-century.

International finance experts see how the US dollar has been devaluing against the €uro, as important players on the international scene convert to the European currency for more stable transactions ... Russia, China, North Korea and Malaysia have begun holding €uros as important hedgings in their foreign exchange reserves as faith in American greenbacks floats down the river.

CIA and other intel organizations, including Britain`s MI5, now fear that the next step is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is about to switch to €uros ... the immediate effect would be a massive devaluation, perhaps sparking of domino-effect devaluations worldwide in US$-related foreign reserves and foreign debt calculations.

With a massive budget deficit, the United States is running scared of latest intel that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the brink of converting to the €uros and the opinion held by many OPEC ministers is that the conversion is an inevitability ... the only question left is WHEN?

Arab sources claim that €uro conversion across the Middle and Far East is a rational step to counteract the United States` capacity to "wage further illegal wars (a.k.a. State-sponsored terrorism)" around the world and that any prolonged occupation of Iraq by US/British forces ... and any move towards withdrawal of Iraq from the OPEC cartel ... will only precipitate "remedial action" by like-minded Arab nations to protect their own best interests over Washington`s.

A significant step in this direction is that Iran is contemplating switching to the €uro and, as a result, is the latest object of United States undiplomatic interference ... an intel sources says "they are stimulating opposition forces, making covert threats ... the next step is destabilization and quasi-liberation warfare under the pretext of promoting US-style democracy but essentially aimed at maintaining the US dollar as a global transaction currency."

www.lemetropolecafe.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Venezuelan move to replace US$ with the €uro upsetting Washington more than Saddam`s €uro conversion last NovemberCIA and other intel organizations, including Britain`s MI5, now fear that the next step is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is about to switch to €uros ... the immediate effect would be a massive devaluation, perhaps sparking of domino-effect devaluations worldwide in US$-related foreign reserves and foreign debt calculations." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">CIA and other intel organizations, including Britain`s MI5, now fear that the next step is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is about to switch to €uros ... the immediate effect would be a massive devaluation, perhaps sparking of domino-effect devaluations worldwide in US$-related foreign reserves and foreign debt calculations.

With a massive budget deficit, the United States is running scared of latest intel that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the brink of converting to the €uros and the opinion held by many OPEC ministers is that the conversion is an inevitability ... the only question left is WHEN?

Arab sources claim that €uro conversion across the Middle and Far East is a rational step to counteract the United States` capacity to "wage further illegal wars (a.k.a. State-sponsored terrorism)" around the world and that any prolonged occupation of Iraq by US/British forces ... and any move towards withdrawal of Iraq from the OPEC cartel ... will only precipitate "remedial action" by like-minded Arab nations to protect their own best interests over Washington`s.

A significant step in this direction is that Iran is contemplating switching to the €uro and, as a result, is the latest object of United States undiplomatic interference ... an intel sources says "they are stimulating opposition forces, making covert threats ... the next step is destabilization and quasi-liberation warfare under the pretext of promoting US-style democracy but essentially aimed at maintaining the US dollar as a global transaction currency."

www.lemetropolecafe.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">

VHeadline.com editor & publisher Roy S. Carson writes:

A move by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias to replace the US$ with the €uro is seen as upsetting Washington more than when Iraq`s Saddam Hussein started using the €uro for oil transactions last November ... precipitating the US-led action to invade Iraq. Beltway bullies are now said to be angered by Venezuela`s decision to barter oil with thirteen other Latin American countries, dealing moves to dollarize South America currencies. Intelligence reports say that while the US was able to pull the wool over the international community and ally with Britain`s Blair to bulldoze action against former Iran War ally Hussein, the situation with Venezuela is proving more difficult.

For supposed links with Cuba`s Castro and Libya`s Khadaffi, the United States is loathe to do more than to give subversive support to anti-Chavez elements in Venezuela fighting against the Venezuelan President`s domestic war against political and economic corruption which have permeated the South American country for the last half-century.

International finance experts see how the US dollar has been devaluing against the €uro, as important players on the international scene convert to the European currency for more stable transactions ... Russia, China, North Korea and Malaysia have begun holding €uros as important hedgings in their foreign exchange reserves as faith in American greenbacks floats down the river.

CIA and other intel organizations, including Britain`s MI5, now fear that the next step is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is about to switch to €uros ... the immediate effect would be a massive devaluation, perhaps sparking of domino-effect devaluations worldwide in US$-related foreign reserves and foreign debt calculations.

With a massive budget deficit, the United States is running scared of latest intel that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the brink of converting to the €uros and the opinion held by many OPEC ministers is that the conversion is an inevitability ... the only question left is WHEN?

Arab sources claim that €uro conversion across the Middle and Far East is a rational step to counteract the United States` capacity to "wage further illegal wars (a.k.a. State-sponsored terrorism)" around the world and that any prolonged occupation of Iraq by US/British forces ... and any move towards withdrawal of Iraq from the OPEC cartel ... will only precipitate "remedial action" by like-minded Arab nations to protect their own best interests over Washington`s.

A significant step in this direction is that Iran is contemplating switching to the €uro and, as a result, is the latest object of United States undiplomatic interference ... an intel sources says "they are stimulating opposition forces, making covert threats ... the next step is destabilization and quasi-liberation warfare under the pretext of promoting US-style democracy but essentially aimed at maintaining the US dollar as a global transaction currency."

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Magniafazulaa]

alles was über 3 Zeilen = Schönfärberei.....

[Magniafazulaa]

stockmove hat wieder einen Hammerbeitrag geleistet, bin nur begeistert........der Mann kann was..........

[Magniafazulaa]

Oje,,,,,,,nehr Leser? dann kann der Preis nur sinken? Guru aktiv? sehr schlechtes Zeichen, Konsol. angesagt...............

[ThaiGuru]

@Cabalwespen

Entweder versteht Ihr kein Englisch, oder ihr glaubt einfach nur an den heiligen Geist, und ein Wunder der Fatima.

Gold wird aber trotzdem weiter im Preis ansteigen!

Dass Gold noch nicht in dem Ausmas ansteigt wie es eigentlich müsste, wenn es sich um einen freien Goldmarkt handeln würde, liegt weder an mangelnder Nachfrage nach physischem Gold, noch an irgendwelchen angeblichen überkauften Marktsituationen beim Gold, sondern nur an der Preismanipulation des Goldpreises, durch (noch!) andauernden Verkäufen von "Papier Gold" an der Comex.
Dieses "Papiergold" (Luft!), dass momentan leider noch immer Preisbestimmend ist für den echten physischen Goldhandel, hat mit Gold in Wirklichkeit fast rein gar nichts mit der Realität von Angebot und Nachfrage zu tun, und dient den Gold Bullionbanken, und der FED einzig dazu die Goldpreise unten zu halten.

Das Gute an diesem traurigen Spiel, ist aber auf der anderen Seite, dass wir Gold Bugs uns weiterhin zu den manipulierten Goldtiefstpreisen mit echtem physischem Gold eindecken können.

Das wird mit Sicherheit nicht mehr lange so bleiben!

Nichtsahnende, Id.oten, Obrigkeitshörige, Leichtgläubige, und Naivlinge, etc. gibt es leider noch viel zu viele,
wirkliche physische Goldkäufer in Europa, leider (noch!) viel zu wenige.

Das macht ja das ganze Goldpreisgeschehen weiterhin so spannend.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Wollte heute einige Meldungen zur geplanten Umstellung im Oelhandel von Dollar auf Euro durch Venezuela in der deutschen Presse recherchieren. Doch siehe da, ich finde nichts, rein gar nichts dazu, obwohl diese von GATA im bereits vor 3 Tagen veräffentlichte Meldung eigentlich wegen deren Tragweite, und den möglichen Einflüssen grossen auf den Dollar Wechselkurs, und damit natürlich auch auf den Goldpreis, die Titelseiten der Weltpresse füllen müsste.

Habe nichts dazu vorgefunden. Falls jemand diese Meldung in irgend einer deutschen Zeitung gelesen hat, bitte hier im Thread posten, oder eine kurze Boardmail mit Quellenangabe.

Hier noch zwei orginal Quellen zur Meldung, die anscheinend im deutschen Sprachraum keine Beachtung finden will.

Vielleicht habe ich ja auch nur zu wenig gesucht?

http://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/200306180034650.php

http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=8613

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Die jetzt bereits 4. Klage gegen Barrick Gold!

Eine weitere Sammelklage, wurde gegen den Goldproduzenten bei Gericht eingereicht.

Für Barrick wird`s langsam aber sicher ungemütlich, und als eventueller Aktionär dieser Goldfirma würde ich mir ein weiteres Verbleiben in dieser Aktie nochmals sehr gut überlegen, und die Risiken, diesem mega Gold Hedger und Gold Cabalisten weiter die Stange zu halten nicht zu unterschätzen.



http://www.primezone.com/pub/headlines.mhtml?d=41746

Source: Emerson Poynter LLP

Emerson Poynter LLP Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against Barick Gold Corp. -- ABX

HOUSTON, June 20, 2003 (PRIMEZONE) -- Emerson Poynter

LLP, a securities class action trial law firm, announced today that a class action lawsuit has been filed in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, on behalf of purchasers of Barick Gold Corp. ("Barick Gold" or the "Company") (NYSE:ABX) publicly traded securities during the period between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002, inclusive (the "Class Period"). A copy of the complaint can be obtained from the Court or by making a toll-free call to the Firm.

The complaint charges that defendants Barrick, Randall Oliphant (CEO and President until February 12, 2003), John K. Carrington (COO and Vice Chairman) and Jamie C. Sokalsky (CFO) violated Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Rule 10b-5 promulgated thereunder, by issuing a series of materially false and misleading statements to the market between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002. For example, throughout the Class Period, Barrick assured the markets that it was improving its operations by keeping its production costs in check and that the Company expected to earn $0.42-$0.47 per share in 2002, even taking into account the phasing out of several mines and decreasing ore quality (which increases costs) in several of its mines. These representations were materially false and misleading, according to the complaint, because they failed to disclose that the Company`s expected costs for the year would be well above the figures highlighted to the public, that Barrick`s costs per ounce had increased dramatically in 2002 and would continue to increase throughout the year, and that the Company`s repeated assurances that production and costs would continue to improve in 2002 were lacking in any reasonable basis and were contradicted by facts known to defendants, or, at the very least, recklessly disregarded by them. On September 26, 2002, the Company announced that it expects to earn materially less in 2002 than previously announced, due to increased costs stemming from production issues at several mines (which, the Company misleadingly represented during the Class Period, would be resolved in the second half of 2002). In reaction to the announcement, which came only days after the Company reiterated its positive expectations, Barrick`s stock fell by 10.5% in one day, from $17.77 on September 25, 2002 to $15.90 on September 26, on extremely heavy trading volume.

If you purchased Barick Gold securities between February 14, 2002 and September 26, 2002, inclusive, and you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court through Emerson Poynter or other counsel of your choice, not later than August 11, 2003. If you are a member of this class, you can join this class action by contacting Emerson Poynter via e-mail or calling toll-free.

Emerson Poynter has substantial experience representing investors in securities fraud class action lawsuits such as this. The firm has offices in Houston, Texas and Little Rock, Arkansas, but represents investors throughout the nation. If you have any questions about how you may be able to recover for your losses, or if you would like to consider serving as one of the lead plaintiffs in this lawsuit, you are encouraged to call toll free or e-mail the firm. John G. Emerson, 830 Apollo Lane, Houston, TX 77058. Phone [phone].

More information on this and other class actions can be found on the Class Action Newsline at:

http://www.primezone.com/ca

CONTACT: Emerson Poynter LLP
Investor Relations Department
Ms. Tanya Autry
[phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn ich das was dieser Elliot Wellen Chart aussagen soll richtig interpretiere, heisst das doch nichts anderes als die Ellioter wissen anscheinend wieder einmal mehr, überhaupt nicht wohin die Richtung geht.



Oder anders gesagt, geht`s nicht runter, geht`s halt doch hoch. Dass die Gold Minen Indizes noch etwas seitwärts verlaufen könnten, wird bemerkenswerterweise nicht einmal erwähnt!

Die Elliotter mögen mir verzeihen, aber diese Aussage ist nicht sehr schwer zu machen, selbst ohne Chart!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Potosi]

# 6109

Barrick - Klagen

... und was sagt Papa Bush dazu ??

Alle bombardieren !

[kickaha]

#6104 Hallo Magni,
kannst DU Artikel von Stockmove mal reinstellen ?

Danke

[konradi]

ach die schon wieder ...

Robert Prechter prognostiziert für den POG ja erstmal 200 $ - oder bin ich da nicht mehr auf dem neuesten Stand ?


...Heutzutage bindet die Regierung den Kurs ihrer Währung nicht mehr an Gold und wird es wohl in nächster Zeit auch nicht tun. Ohne künstliche Beschränkungen wird Gold in der kommenden Deflation genauso stark fallen wie alle anderen Rohstoffe - und Goldaktien werden wahrscheinlich sogar noch stärker verlieren. Eine Analyse des langfristigen Wellenmusters der Goldaktien untermauert diese Schlussfolgerung. Erst eine Kursbewegung, die den Goldpreis auf mehr als 400 US-Dollar pro Unze bringt, würde dazu führen, dass ich meine Meinung ändere und den Edelmetallen bullish gegenüberstehe...

http://www.deraktionaer.de/Nachgehakt_current_214651.html

[Tippgeber1]

@all special



"Goldmarkt - aktuelle Entwicklungen

Von Martin Siegel, Chefredakteur „Gold-Markt“

Am 2. Juni 2003 veroeffentlichte Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) die aktuellen
Goldmarktdaten des Maerzquartals 2003. Auffaellig sind in einigen Bereichen die hohen
prozentualen Veraenderungen. So fiel die Goldproduktion im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 12,4 %
zurueck, blieb aber im Vergleich zum schwachen Vorjahresquartal konstant.

Das Angebot aus der Aufarbeitung von Altgold stieg im Vergleich zum Vorjahr dagegen um
25,3 % an. Das Angebot wurde zusaetzlich durch Zentralbankverkaeufe erhoeht.

Dagegen wurde das Goldangebot durch Eindeckungen von Vorwaertsverkaeufen der
Goldproduzenten vermindert. Dieses Gold wurde aus der laufenden Produktion dazu verwendet,
Vorwaertsverkaeufe glattzustellen und kam so erst gar nicht an den Markt.

Insgesamt fiel das Angebot im Vorjahresvergleich um 8,2 % von 900 auf 826 t zurueck. Weitaus
staerker als das Angebot fiel jedoch die Nachfrage zurueck. Die Nachfrage der Schmuckindustrie
brach im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 10,5 % und im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 20,6 % ein.
Dabei dominiert die Schmucknachfrage die gesamte Nachfrage mit einem Anteil von 76,9 %
weiterhin deutlich. Die uebrige Nachfrage der Industrie blieb mit 141 t sowohl im Vorjahresvergleich
wie auch im Quartalsvergleich konstant. Die Nachfrage fuer Anlage- und Investitionszwecke ist mit
99 t und einem Gegenwert von 1,1 Mrd USD nach wie vor unbedeutend.

Seit dem 1. Quartal 2002 stieg der Goldpreis von 290 auf 352 USD/oz an. Vor allem der Anstieg im
2. Quartal 2002 von 290 auf 312 USD/oz bei einer steigenden Produktion und einer sinkenden
Schmucknachfrage zeigt eindrucksvoll, dass sich die Entwicklung des Goldpreises nicht mit den
veroeffentlichten Zahlen erklaeren laesst. Auch im 1. Quartal 2003 haette der Einbruch der Schmucknachfrage
zu einem fallenden Goldpreis fuehren muessen. Dennoch stieg der durchschnittliche
Goldpreis im Quartalsvergleich von 322 auf 352 USD/oz weiter an.
Wir lassen die von GFMS veroeffentlichten Daten nur als grobe und unbrauchbare Schaetzungen
gelten, die den physischen Goldmarkt nur bruchstueckhaft abbilden. Preisprognosen aus diesen
Zahlen sind voellig unmoeglich, da die wesentlichen Marktfaktoren unberuecksichtigt bleiben. Vor
allem ueber die riesige Manoevriermasse der Goldverleihungen der Zentralbanken mit einem
geschaetzten Volumen von etwa 10.000 t fehlen die Angaben vollstaendig, da sich die Zentralbanken
weigern, Zahlen ueber die Verleihungen zu veroeffentlichen. Auch der preisbeeinflussende
Derivatemarkt bleibt in der Analyse der GFMS unberuecksichtigt.

Unveraendert gehen wir davon aus, dass sich der Goldmarkt ohne die Manipulationen der
Zentralbanken etwa im Bereich von 600 USD/oz in einem Gleichgewicht zwischen Angebot und
Nachfrage befinden wuerde. Wir erwarten, dass die Produktion weiter sinken und die Schmucknachfrage
wieder ansteigen wird. Die Anlage- und Investmentnachfrage kann jederzeit explodieren und
den Goldpreis weit ueber die 600 USD/oz-Marke hinaustreiben. Derzeit wird jaehrlich nur ein laecherlicher
Betrag von etwa 4 Mrd USD in Gold angelegt. Das Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanzdefizit der USA, die
maroden Banken und Versicherungen in Japan, die unbezahlbaren Renten- und Pensionsverpflichtungen
weltweit, die unueberschaubaren Risiken aus Derivaten sowie die bankrotten
Haushalte der Staaten, Unternehmen und Privathaushalte koennen jederzeit zu einem Run auf die
Anlage in Gold fuehren, so dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines weiter anhaltenden Aufwaertstrends
gross bleibt."


Fazit: Die 600 USD Marke wird früher oder später kommen.


Liebe Grüße

Euer

Tippgeber

[Der_Glueckliche]

sehe keinen Grund, dass "die Anlage und Investmentnachfrage explodieren" wird.

Wenn die Goldanleger sich statt Goldaktien oder Gold- oder Silbercalls wirklich Gold oder Silber kaufen wuerden, dann vielleicht.

105.000 Kontrakte netto-short bei den Kommerziellen, das heisst 105.000 Kontrakte netto-long bei den Spekulanten(Stand 17.6.) sprechen da eine andere Sprache.

Wenn die Spekulanten ihr Geld in Goldpapiere statt in Gold stecken kann und wird Gold nicht steigen.

So ist das eben.

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Unglueckliche

Die Anlage und Investmentnachfrage wird sehr wohl noch gewaltig zunehmen, auch wenn Du das leider immer noch nicht für möglich hälst, oder eventuell auch nur bezweckst die Leser hier im Thread zu verunsichern.

Der Goldpreis wird auch weiterhin steigen selbst wenn Deine "Freunde" noch 100000 zusätzliche Kontrakte short gehen, und selbst wenn kein einziges zusätzliches Gramm Gold den Weg in eine Anleger Schatulle findet.

Je tiefer die Goldpreise gedrückt werden, desto mehr wird neue Nachfrage nach physischem Gold entstehen. Hauptsächlich aus Indien, Japan, und neu jetzt auch aus China, immerhin eine potenzielle Nachfrage nach echtem Gold von 1.4 Milliarden Menschen, und in immer grösserem Ausmas auch aus den arabischen Ländern. Malaysia mit ihrem Gold Dinar darfst Du bestimmt auch nicht unterschätzen. Dass die Zentralbanken Russlands und China ihre Goldvorräte aus, und nicht abbauen sind auch Tatsachen, und keine Vermutungen.

Dass die gehedgten Goldminen ihre Vorwärtsverkäufe bereits seit geraumer Zeit, und auch gerade heute immer mehr abbauen, scheinst Du durch Deine Ignoranz, ebenfalls völlig zu vergessen.

Du kannst ja allen Ernstes auch nicht glauben wollen, dass die Goldproduzenten, zum Teil bereits mit happigen Verlusten, Gold am Markt kaufen, um ihre Hedgepositionen zu schliessen, wenn sie davon ausgehen würden, dass die Goldpreise nicht weiter steigen, oder sogar noch fallen werden, was Du den Lesern hier ja wohl suggerieren möchtest. Auch wenn, wie die informierten Leser hier im Board wissen, Du noch vor wenigen Monaten nicht einmal wusstest wo man Goldkontrakte handelt, und ebenso von den anderen Dingen rund ums Goldgeschehen überhaupt keine Ahnung hattest, wäre das doch des Guten etwas zuviel.

Einzig und alleine der Nachfrage Ueberhand beim Gold, der ja bereits seit Jahren besteht, wird schon eher früher als später bewirken, dass die Goldpreise weiter steigen. Da helfen auch noch so viele Shortpositionen Papier Gold nichts mehr, wenn dem Gold Cabal das physische Gold ausgeht.

Dass ein weiterer Dollar Wechselkurs Rückgang dem Gold Preis, zumindest in Dollar gerechnet, zusätzlichen Auftrieb bescheren wird, kannst Du wohl selbst als Laie nicht wirklich ganz ausser Acht lassen wollen.

Da die Nachfrage nach physischem Gold aber weiterhin steigt, auch wenn das World Gold Council, und Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) nicht müde wird, immer wieder was anderes zu behaupten, dürfte alles noch schneller gehen. Speziell darum weil GATA bereits ganz klar belegt hat, dass die vom WGC veröffentlichen Zahlen zu den physischen Goldbeständen, zurückhaltend ausgedrückt, absolut falsch sind. Auch die Zahlen von GFMS sind mit grösster Vorsicht zu geniessen. Beide Organisationen werden durch Geld, auch aus der dem Gold Cabal zugerechneten Ecke finanziert.

Vergiss mal einfach auf Deinen 105000 Papier Gold Kontrakte Shortpositionen der Comercials herumzureiten, und warte noch 2 bis 3 Wochen. Wir werden dann sehen, ob diese Shortpositionen einen weiteren Preisanstieg beim Gold verhindern konnten, oder nicht. Falls Du noch ein Jahr warten kannst, werden wir auch sehen ob die Nachfrage der Anleger nach Gold als Anlage massiv gestiegen ist, oder nicht.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Der_Glueckliche]

Bisjetzt war es so, dass auf eine zu grosse Long-Position(ueber 100.000 Kontrakte) der Spekulanten der Absturz des Goldpreises folgte(wenn auch nurm ein paar Prozent).

Dadurch verdienen die Grossen an den Kleinen, was an der Boerse normal ist.

Genauso normal, wie, das der Dax bei einem Uebermass an Pessimismus und entsprechendem Uebermass an PutPositionen der Kleinen steigt. Wie wir seit ein paar Monaten sehen.

An der Boerse werden eben die Kleinen rasiert.

Die Kunst ist es, auf der richtigen Seite zu liegen, normalerweise auf der, auf der die Mehrheit der Kleinen nicht liegt...

[Wasserzeichen]

@Hallo Thai

Zu #6108:Sehr interessante Geschichte das mit Venezuela:Konnte bislang auch nix dazu finden.Wenn ich Zeit
habe schau ich mal nach evtl. venezuelanischen Quellen im
www.
(Wenn Venezuela das tatsächlich hinkriegt ohne CIA-Putsch
o.ä.,dann könnte das eine Initialzündung weg von der Dollar-
herrschaft in vielen Rohstoffreichen Entwicklungs-und Schwellenländern führen...)

[ThaiGuru]

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Die Kunst ist es, auf der richtigen Seite zu liegen"

Genau so ist es!

Nur liegst leider auf der falschen Seite.

[Der_Glueckliche]

Das mit Venezuela hoert sich in der Tat interessant an.

wenn diese Entwicklung weitergeht, profitieren wir alle davon.

@ThaiGuru:

Die naechsten Monate werden zeigen, wer richtig liegt.

Im Sommer steigt Gold normalerweise nicht.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/bm/ga/1055680394010.html?nv=cd-divnews

Aus der FTD vom 23.6.2003

Edelmetalle: US-Zinssenkung dürfte Goldpreis treiben

Von Alexander Zumpfe

Die Aufregung der Märkte vor der Zinsentscheidung der US-Notenbank am Mittwoch macht vor dem Goldpreis nicht Halt. Sollte sich die Fed zu einer Zinssenkung entschließen, könnte das positive Folgen für das Edelmetall haben.



Analysten schließen nach einem leichten Anstieg in der vergangenen Woche auf gut 357 $ für die kommenden Tage Preisschwankungen von 5 bis 10 $ Dollar in einer Handelsspanne zwischen 355 und 365 $ je Unze nicht aus. Ob diese Spanne halten wird, bestimmt vor allem der Devisenmarkt.

Grundsätzlich gilt, dass ein schwächerer Dollar-Kurs mit einem festeren Goldpreis einhergeht. Sollte sich die Fed - wie die Mehrheit der Analysten erwartet - zu einer Zinssenkung entschließen, könnte das positive Folgen für das Edelmetall haben. Neben den Auswirkungen auf die Devisenmärkte begünstigt es das Interesse der Investoren. Da ein Investment in Gold keine Zinsen abwirft, wird das gelbe Metall desto attraktiver für Investoren, je weniger Zinsen andere Anlagen abwerfen.

In der vergangenen Woche wurde auch Platin stark beachtet. Nach positiven US-Wirtschaftsdaten kehrten Fonds zurück. Ihre Nachfrage trieb den Preis für das Industriemetall bis auf 682 $ je Unze. Umfangreiche - auf diesem Niveau platzierte - Verkaufsorders sollten Händlern zufolge allerdings in dieser Woche eine weitere Aufwärtsbewegung zunächst abbremsen. Die nächste Unterstützung findet Platin bei 660 $.

Positive Impulse könnten mittelfristig von der Automobilindustrie ausgehen. Nicht zuletzt wegen eines umfangreichen Modellwechsels geht eine zunehmende Anzahl von Analysten davon aus, dass die Autonachfrage in diesem Jahr ihren Tiefststand erreicht hat. Sollte die Zahl der Neuzulassungen zunehmen, rechnen Marktbeobachter mit positiven Auswirkungen auf die Platinnachfrage. Das Industriemetall findet Verwendung in Katalysatoren.

Der Silberpreis scheint unterdessen sein vorläufiges Tief gefunden zu haben und verabschiedete sich aus seinem Mitte Mai gebildeten Abwärtstrend.

Alexander Zumpfe ist Händler für Edelmetalle und Rohstoffe bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland , © Illustration: FTD, Quelle: Bloomberg

[ThaiGuru]

After the Gold Rush, There Might Be More Upside

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/funds/financialeducation/1…

[ThaiGuru]

Ein neuer Tag, eine neue goldene Woche!

Oder wenn`s heute nicht schon wieder hochgehen sollte, nicht verzweifeln. Spätestens am Mittwoch wird`s wieder hochgehen. Entweder senkt "Mister Print" die Zinsen, dann crasht der Dollar, und Gold steigt, oder er senkt die Zinsen nicht, dann crashen die Börsen, und Gold steigt!

[Der_Glueckliche]

Na, dann wird ja alles gut!

[Tippgeber1]

@Thai-Guru
@der glückliche

Das nennt man eine klassiche win-win
Situation - egal was passiert, wir gewinnen
immer. Erinnert mich an einen Spielbank,
wo immer die Bank am Ende alles gewinnt...



Liebe Grüße

Tippgeber

[ZWANGSLIQUIDATION]

Ich erwarte im Spätsommer einen Crash im Dow Jones und möchte daran mit Gold-Aktien partizipieren. Welche Werte (Minen, Fonds) wären eurer Meinung nach empfehlenswert?

Gruss
Zwangsliquidator

[ThaiGuru]

@Zwangsliquidation

Blue Chips:

Gold Corp *GG*
Harmony Gold *HMY*
Gold Fields *GFI*
Newmont *NEM* (Neu hinzugekommen!)

Grosser Hebel auf einen steigenden Goldpreis/(Silberpreis):

Durban *DROOY*
Bema Gold *BGO*
ABELLE *ASX:ABX.AX*
KINROSS GOLD *NYSE:KGC*
GOLDEN STAR RSCS (AMEX:GSS)
COEUR D`ALENE *NYSE:CDE* Silber/Gold
HECLA MINING CO *NYSE:HL* Silber/Gold

Einige meiner persöhnlichen Favoriten!

RIVER GOLD MINE (Toronto:RIV.TO)
CALEDONIA MINING (OTC BB:CALVF.OB)
THISTLE MINING (Toronto:THT.TO)
HECLA MINING CO (NYSE:HL) Silber/Gold
AFRIKANDER LEASE (Other OTC:AFKDY.PK)
RICHMONT MINES (AMEX:RIC)
ELDORADO GOLD (Toronto:ELD.TO)
IAMGOLD CORP (Toronto:IMG.TO)
KING`S BAY GOLD (CDNX:KBG.V)(Explorer Titel!)
VENCAN GOLD CP (CDNX:VCG.V)(Explorer Titel!)
CLIMAX MINING (ASX:CMX.AX)
MACMIN SILVER (ASX:MMN.AX) (Silber Titel, Explorer!)
AGD MINING (ASX:AGZ.AX) (Extrem Risiko Titel, mit gewaltiger Hebelwirkung auf einen steigenden Goldpreis nach Produktionsbeginn! Besser als ein Gold Call, da kein Verfallsdatum! Langzeit spekulations Investment!)

Mein Favorit aus Thailand:

TONGKAH HARBOUR PUBLIC *THL*

Erster und einziger Goldminen Titel der an der Börse von Thailand, SET, gehandelt wird, und zur Zeit (noch!) total verkannt wird von den hiesigen Anlegern. Wird 1./2. Quartal 2004 die Gold Produktion beginnen. Kann leider nur direkt in Thailand selbst, oder über eine gute Bankverbindung in Europa geordert werden!

http://www.set.or.th/set/en/market/market_u6.jsp?sym=thl&ima…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Tippgeber

Du sagst es!

Ein Anleger in physisches Gold, kann meiner Ansicht nach eigentlich aus mittlerer Sicht, oder länger, nur Gewinnen, und sei es auch nur als Werterhalt seines Ersparten. Im Gegensatz zu *Fiat Money* Papiergeld ohne Deckung, dürfte physisches Gold alleweil auf lange Zeit die bessere Alternative bleiben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ZWANGSLIQUIDATION]

@ThaiGuru

Vielen Dank.

Was hältst du eigentlich von den Gold-Zertifikaten der ABN AMRO (http://www.abn-zertifikate.de/gold/gold_overview.asp)

Ich habe das AMEX Gold Bugs Open End Zertifikat (kein Hebel) und den AMEX Gold Bugs Turbo in Betracht gezogen.

Schönen Gruß
vom Zwangsliquidator

[ThaiGuru]

@ZWANGSLIQUIDATION

BITTE SEI MIR NICHT BÖSE

HALTE REIN GAR NICHTS VON ABN AMRO GOLD ZERTIFIKATEN, EGAL WELCHER ART, UND VON WELCHER BANK, DA ICH GOLD DERIVATIVE NICHT AUSSTEHEN KANN, UND SIE IN WIRKLICHKEIT IM GEGENSATZ ZU GOLD UND SILBER MINEN (EXPLORER) BEDEUTEND SCHLECHTERE GEWINNCHANCEN BIETEN ALS GOLD UND SILBER MINEN.

GENAU MIT SOLCHEN ODER ANDEREN DERIVATIVINSTRUMENTEN AUF`S GOLD WURDE, UND WIRD LEIDER IMMER NOCH DER GOLDPREIS KUENSTLICH UNTER KONTROLLE GEHALTEN.

WENN DIE ANLEGER DAS ENDLICH REALISIERT HABEN, UND PHYSISCHES GOLD KAUFEN, ANSTELLE MIT "LUFT" PAPIER GOLD (DERIVATIVE) RUMZUZOCKEN, WIRD DER GOLDPREIS ERST RICHTIG ANSTEIGEN.

WENN SCHON MIT GOLD ZOCKEN, DANN ABER MIT DEN RICHTIGEN INSTRUMENTEN, NÄHMLICH DEN GOLDMINEN. DA GIBT ES DUTZENDE MÖGLICHKEITEN. ES GIBT MINEN DIE NOCH BEDEUTEND GRÖSSERE CHANCEN BIETEN (TOTALVERLUST CHANCE INBEGRIFFEN) ALS IRGENWELCHE ZERTIFIKATE EINER BANK, UND DAS SOGAR OHNE VERFALLSDATUM. ZUDEM WERDEN SELBST DIE RISIKOREICHSTEN FANTASIE MINEN NORMALERWEISE NICHT VON HEUTE AUF MORGEN WERTLOS, WIE ES BEI EINEM GOLD CALL DER FALL IST, WENN ER "AUS DEM GELD" VERFALLEN SOLLTE. SO EINE ART VON RESTWERT GIBT`S MEISTEN AUCH NOCH.

WERDE NÄCHSTENS MAL EINE SOLCHE ZUSAMMENSTELLUNG VON RISIKO MINEN TITELN MIT RIESEN POTENZIAL VON BIS ZU EINIGEN TAUSEN PROZENTEN AUF DER EINEN SEITE, UND EINEM TOTAL VERLUST AUF DER ANDEREN SEITE ZUSAMMENSTELLEN, FÜR ALLE DIEJENEIGEN DIE NORMALERWEISE GERNE IHR GELD MITTELS GOLD ZERTIFIKATEN RISKIEREN WOLLEN.

EINEN TITEL DAVON HABE ICH JA BEREITS IM POSTING 6127 GENANNT. DIE *AGZ* KOSTET ZUR ZEIT GERADE MAL 0.006 A DOLLAR, KOMMT VON ÜBER 3 AUSTRALISCHEN DOLLARS, UND KÖNNTE THEORETISCH AUCH WIEDER DAHIN ZURÜCKGEHEN! kONKURSGEFAHR BESTEHT ZUR ZEIT AUCH KEINE, UND DIE MINE HAT GOLD IM BODEN. WENN DIE AGD MINING WIRKLICH MIT DER GOLD PRODUKTION BEGINNT, HAGELT ES NUR SO VON PROZENTEN. FALLS DER GOLDPREIS WEITER STEIGT, WOVON WIR HIER IM THREAD ZUMEIST JA AUSGEHEN, STEIGEN DIE CHANCEN VON *AGZ* IMENS AN. FALLS DER GOLDPREIS FÄLLT, SEHEN DIE CHANCEN FÜR AGZ EHER SCHLECHT AUS, UND DEIN "ZERTIFIKAT" *AGZ* KANN DEN BACH RUNTER GEHEN, SO EINFACH IST DAS.





Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ZWANGSLIQUIDATION]

@ThaiGuru

Mir ist klar, das es besser ist, physisches Gold statt Deriaten zu erwerben. Ich möchte jedoch, mein Verlustrisiko begrenzen und stehe deshalb zu kleinen Minen skeptisch gegenüber. Ich werde mir aber vermutlich ein paar "Blue-Chips" wie Harmony zulegen.

Gruss
Zwangsliquidator

[niemandweiss]

[hpoth]

@zwangsliquidator,
ThaiGuru, hat vollkomen Recht, 3-5 Blue Chips langen, dann
etwa 5-10 die einen größeren Hebel auf dem Goldpreis haben, dann noch einige Explorer, hier muß aber immer ein
Totalverlust einkalkuliert werden, und physisches Gold und Silber ist nicht verkehrt.Konto sollte übersichtlich gehalten werden.Bei 100 % und mehr Hälfte geben, der Rerst ist dann umsonst und hat keine Eigenkapitalbindung mehr.
Gruß hpoth

[keepitshort]

ratio-Gold-Dollar-1980-bis-2003

Achtung 1987 war die 10-year-T-Bond-Yield bei ca. 9,0%
2003 ist die 10-year-T-Bond-Yield bei ca. 3,5%

der 87er Crash wurde behoben da Greenspan die
Zinsen schnell gesenkt.

Natürlich kann Greenspan noch viele
10-year-T-Bonds aufkaufen ob aber die Marktteilnehmer
mitmachen das ist entscheidend.
die Bond-Märkte sind zu gross deshalb kann Greenspan
die Bond-Märkte nur mit der Psychologischen-Keule
besiegen indem er die Marktteilnehmer motiviert
T-Bonds zu kaufen bis die Bond-Blase platzt.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID…

[Der_Glueckliche]

@keepit:

Wieso kann Alan eigentlich nicht einfach alle bonds aufkaufen? Er hat doch genug Geld, schliesslich druckt er es!

[erdede]

auf CABAL ist Verlass , wie gesagt.... im Augenblick out

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.deraktionaer.de/Meinung.phtml?current=338251

Heute - Weiterer Aufwärtstrend bei Gold wahrscheinlich

Am Goldmarkt fiel zuletzt die Goldproduktion im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 12,4 Prozent zurück, blieb aber im Vergleich zum schwachen Vorjahresquartal konstant. Das Angebot wurde zusätzlich durch Zentralbankverkäufe erhöht, wie der "Doersam-Brief" feststellt.

Seit dem 1. Quartal 2002 stieg der Goldpreis von 290 auf 352 Dollar je Unze an. Dabei hätte im 1. Quartal 2003 der Einbruch der Schmucknachfrage zu einem fallenden Goldpreis führen müssen.

Unverändert ist davon auszugehen, dass sich der Goldmarkt ohne Einflüsse der Zentralbanken etwa im Bereich von 600 Dollar in einem Gleichgewicht zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage befinden würde.

Das Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanzdefizit der USA, die belasteten Banken und Versicherungen in Japan, die teuren Renten- und Pensionsverpflichtungen, die unüberschaubaren Risiken aus Derivaten sowie die bankrotten Haushalte der Staaten, Unternehmen und Privathaushalte können jederzeit zu einem Run auf die Anlage in Gold führen, so dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines weiter anhaltenden Aufwärtstrends groß bleibt.

[Der_Glueckliche]

Oh, Gott, jetzt empfiehlt auch noch `Der Aktionaer` Gold!

[erdede]

naja, jedenfalls werden wir heut`abend einen kurzen Hype auf 355.50 erleben dürfen, freuen wir uns drauf

erdede

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.instock.de/Nachrichten/10131524.html

Ein goldener Sommer

++ Wohin mit dem Geld? ++

Von Dirk Harbecke

Vor uns liegt ein heißer Sommer voller Zweifel: Geht die Aktien-Rallye weiter, crasht der Anleihe-Markt? Prognosen können derzeit nur Hellseher aufstellen, zu widersprüchlich sind die Aussagen der Konjunkturdaten in Europa und den USA. Skeptisch machen mich vor diesem Hintergrund die seit Wochen wieder steigenden Auflagen der Wirtschaftsmagazine und Titelseiten mit Schlagzeilen wie „Dax 4000" („Euro am Sonntag“). „Anleger wissen nicht, wohin mit dem Geld“, titelt die „Welt", und hat damit nicht unrecht. Einzig die Angst, etwas zu verpassen, treibt die Börsen.

Ein nachhaltiger Wirtschaftsaufschwung ist nicht in Sicht, solange zentrale Indikatoren wie Arbeitslosigkeit, Investitionen, Kapazitätsauslastung oder Auftragseingänge auf Rezessions-Niveau stagnieren. Zwar versprechen Politiker und etliche Wirtschaftsexperten wieder einmal den Aufschwung, doch das sollte nach deren Irrtümern der vergangenen drei Jahre skeptisch stimmen. Die Akteure an den Bondmärkten, die ihr eigenes Kapital einsetzen, sehen das ähnlich.

Wohin also mit dem Geld? Mein Vorschlag: Schauen Sie sich Gold an.

In den Finanz-Medien spielt das Edelmetall seit Ende des Irak-Krieges zu Unrecht eine untergeordnete Rolle. Viele Faktoren sprechen für steigende Kurse, doch es gibt Risiken: Seit Anfang Februar (vor dem Irak-Einmarsch) ist der Gold-Preis von knapp 390 US-Dollar in der Spitze auf derzeit 355 Dollar gefallen.

Investoren im Euroraum oder in der Schweiz haben deutlich mehr verloren, weil der Dollar gleichzeitig gegenüber ihren Heimatwährungen eingebrochen ist. So musste ein Euro-Anleger Anfang Februar bei einem Kurs von 1,08 Dollar 361 Euro für eine Feinunze bezahlen, die heute nur noch 308 Euro wert ist. Gold müsste also stark zulegen, damit Euro-Investoren, die zu Höchstkursen eingestiegen sind, in die Gewinnzone kommen. Dies gilt insbesondere, wenn der Dollar-Verfall anhält. Nach Meinung etlicher Analysten wird die Schwächeperiode des Greenback wegen des hohen Leistungsbilanzdefizits und der Staatsverschuldung in den kommenden zwei bis drei Jahre anhalten.

Der Goldpreis muss in dieser Zeit also stärker steigen als der Euro gegenüber dem Dollar.

Dafür gibt es jedoch genügend Anhaltspunkte:

In der vergangenen Woche trieb die Unsicherheit an den Finanzmärkten die Anleger wieder in das Edelmetall, viele Gold-Aktien kletterten in die Nähe ihrer Höchststände von 1998. Seit Ende des Irak-Krieges hat der Goldpreis rund 10 Prozent zugelegt. Jeder, der Gold nach dem Irak-Krieg verkauft hat, zweifelt derzeit an seiner Entscheidung. Weil es ungewöhnlich ist und nachdenklich stimmt, dass Gold trotz der stetig steigenden Aktienbörsen weiter glänzt.

[Wavetrader]

.
Neue Gold-Sentiment-Umfrage online: Thread: Gold: Sentiment-Umfrage 2003/06
.

[erdede]

besser als ich dachte, das war mit Rückenwind möglich..
ob sich da was zusammenbraut

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Da oben steht Gold ja vielleicht schon morgen wieder?

Uebrigens, was wir heute geboten bekamen hat ja eigentlich schon eher Seltenheitswert:

Aktien runter, Dollar runter, und auch noch Gold runter!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.rediff.com/money/2003/jun/23gold.htm



Gold imports may spurt if prices dip

June 23, 2003 18:52 IST

Indian gold imports could spurt briefly higher during the current slack season if global prices fall, giving jewellers the opportunity to replenish depleted stocks, traders said on Monday.

But sustained demand in the world`s largest gold consuming market will return only in August after the Hindu festival season begins and in the run-up to the winter harvest, they said.

"Prices of around $345 an ounce could be a good level for people to build inventories, which have shrunk over the past month due to poor buying following firm and volatile prices," said Ranjit Rathod, a trader based in the southern city of Madras.

Global gold prices were quoted at $356 an ounce on Monday.

India imports an average of 1.6 tonnes of gold a day to meet 70 per cent of its annual needs of more than 800 tonnes.

Local gold demand has waned since mid-May, when the five-and-a-half-month Hindu marriage season ended, and farmers, who account for about 70 per cent of India`s annual gold demand, began sowing crops.

Daily gold imports into Madras have tumbled to about 75 kg from city`s average of 175-200 kg, Rathod said.

Global gold prices have been tracking the euro`s firmness against the dollar, which sent bullion to a 15-week high of $374.40 in late May, while the dollar`s subsequent comeback shunted gold as low as $351 on June 10.

Because spot bullion is priced in dollars, the fluctuating value of the U.S. currency affects the gold buying power of holders of other currencies, while changing the metal`s profile as an alternative investment.

Traders said further strengthening of the dollar could drag gold prices down.

The euro dropped to a one-month low of $1.1538 on Monday as the market bet that a likely Federal Reserve rate cut this week would help the U.S. economy recover more quickly than the EU.

Rural demand

"If the monsoon progresses well, we will see active buying from August as farmers may devote their idle money to purchasing jewellery," said Nayan Pansare, a gold trader.

Jewellery demand in rural India surges with a good harvest as farmers tend to turn to gold for financial security.

After a delayed start, the southwest monsoon is progressing well and has covered almost half of the country. Sowing for winter crops has started.

Last year, India suffered its worst drought in 15 years due to poor monsoon rainfall, hurting crop output and lowering farmers` incomes.

© Copyright 2003 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…



HIGH RIVER GOLD MINES LTD.

TSX SYMBOL: HRG

JUNE 23, 2003 - 08:40 ET

High River Gold-Berezitovoye Project Update

TORONTO, ONTARIO--In December 2002, High River Gold Mines Ltd. finalized an agreement to acquire a 100% interest in the Berezitovoye Gold Project, located in the Amur Region of southern Siberia, Russia. The Berezitovoye deposit is amenable to low-cost, open pit mining and has reported Mineral Reserves of 1.3 million ounces of gold and 6.5 million ounces of silver. The gold-polymetallic deposit at Berezitovoye is approximately 750 metres in length and up to 100 metres in width at its thickest portions.

The reserve estimates have been estimated according to
the Russian Classification System and do not conform to the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (CIM) Standards on Mineral Resources and Reserves. As part of High River`s due diligence process these reserves are being audited by Roscoe Postle Associates Inc. ("Roscoe Postle"), of Toronto. High River has not yet done the work necessary to verify the classification and these reserve estimates should not be relied on until classified according to CIM Standards by Roscoe Postle. Roscoe Postle are currently preparing a block model estimate of the reserves and resources which will provide the basis for a
feasibility study.

The project appears to have excellent logistics and will be developed jointly with the Russian company OJSC Buryatzoloto, in which High River has a fully diluted 51% equity interest. Buryatzoloto will be the operator.

weiter....
http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

Negative real rates underpin gold, despite Fed

Monday June 23, 2:18 PM EDT

By Alden Bentley

NEW YORK, June 23 (Reuters) - With yields on U.S. deposits already below the rate of inflation, gold would remain a solid alternative to the dollar whether the Federal Reserve merely pared interest rates this week or slashed aggressively to prevent an overall decline in prices, analysts said.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "Interest rate cuts are by nature inflationary, and historically interest rate cuts have tended to support gold," said James Steel, commodities analyst at Refco.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"But in the current context, where there seems to be deflationary worry and concern that the Fed is spending its ammunition prematurely, you could argue the interest rate cut, no matter how big, may not be a great stimulus to gold."

The dozen interest rate cuts since early 2001 brought U.S. rates down to their lowest in more than 40 years and in weakening the dollar helped turn gold into one of the best-performing assets in in 2002 and early 2003.

Yields on money market funds and saving accounts are less than the rate of consumer price inflation -- now just over 2.0 percent. So, some investors have switched to gold, which yields around zero, but as a hard asset is expected to appreciate as the value of dollar deposits lose ground to inflation.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "In every environment of negative real interest rates, the gold market has done exceedingly well,"

said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"In every case where the dollar has been going lower, I believe gold does well. I believe that those two economic fundamentals will force gold higher."

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday after weeks of preparing markets for another rate reduction with warnings that deflation is more of a risk to economic recovery than a little inflation. An announcement is expected around 2:15 EDT (1815 GMT) Wednesday.

A 13th easing is considered a foregone conclusion. The only question analysts and traders have been asking is how much will the Fed cut from the benchmark 1.25 percent federal funds target rate for overnight lending between banks -- half a percentage point or a quarter?

August gold futures at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to a six-week low at $351.00 an ounce on Monday, closing down $3.30 at $353.40 an ounce, as financial markets priced in an easing on the small side of expectations and the dollar rose to a six-week high against the euro.

Low interest rates have also eliminated gold`s forward market premium, known as "contango" in commodities trading, making it less attractive for producers and speculators to sell. This is why analysts said a 50 basis point cut would be marginally more constructive for gold than 25 basis points.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The more aggressive cut, I would think, gold would react more positively to, since it would tend to be more negative to the dollar than 25 basis points,"

said David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets.

"What`s helped the dollar recently and been limiting for gold is the economic data coming out has been more better-than-expected than worse-than-expected," he said.

In a recent mining and precious metals note Citigroup said that given bank deposit, CD and money market rates in the 1.2 percent to 1.6 percent range before taxes, "very low to negative real interest rates increase the relative appeal of holding gold, particularly considering its portfolio and currency insurance characteristics."

©2003 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

June 23 - Gold $352.90 down $3.20 - Silver $4.55 up 3 cents

The End Of The Line

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"It is better to conquer yourself than to win a thousand battles. Then the victory is yours. It cannot be taken from you, not by angels or by demons, heaven or hell." -- Buddha

The Fed and Treasury and the rest of the crooks running the US financial system must be desperate to trash gold like they are doing. The only logical explanation that makes any sense for the gold bashing the past week is that the Fed must decide what to do with US interest rates Wednesday and all their options are lousy:

*If they do nothing, the stock market will swoon as expectations are dashed.
*If they cut the Fed Funds rate a quarter of a point, it will leave them room to go further, but a good number of market participants will bark they should have done more, especially after the Washington Post story last week predicting a half-point cut. There will be disappointment.
*If they go 50 basis points, the expectation game will be over, the reality game will kick in and the economic reality for the US is UGLY!

Regardless of their decision, they must be petrified of the aftermath of their decision and need to pummel gold to allay any kind of fears they aren’t being prudent. Gold, as simple as it is, remains the easy-to-spot barometer of how the financial system is running. A sharply rising gold price suggests trouble and they know it, so they force it down. Today was a classic Gold Cartel day. Gold was higher even though the dollar was strong. The stock market took a bit hit, the dollar weakened, and yet gold collapsed out of nowhere.

Now shift to the US financial/economic sectors to get a better understanding of the Fed desperado’s predicament:

*The stock market is selling at a P/E ratio of about 32, a number which historically says it is a bubble, one that could burst at any time.
*The bond market is a bubble that could be in the process of bursting.
*Which may also be the case for the US real estate market, another bubble. From the Dallas Morning News this Sunday:

"Wealthy buyers hunting pricey homes have plenty of choices in the current market. While overall sales of pre-owned homes are down 5 percent this year, purchases of luxury homes - $600,000 and up - have fallen by 15 percent. And never have there been so many ultra-priced homes on the market. At the end of May, there were more than 700 pre-owned homes for sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area at $1 million or more, an increase of 40% from two years ago. Four homes are offered at more than $10 million, the most ever in this price range."

More from the King Report:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The Chicago Sun-Times reports that US rental vacancies rose to 6.8% in Q1, the highest level since 1989. The Fed’s desire to inflate housing is deflating rental properties, which also are leveraged. The problem for the Fed is after a busted bubble, efforts to push the US economy is like pushing on a water bed – it just creates dislocations and problems elsewhere. The Fed can lower interest rates to lower interest expense, but they lower commensurately interest income, which is larger than consumer interest expense. And due to the bubble, capex is kaput, so the lower rates actually hurt the economy."

Then throw Iraq into the picture. How much is that blunder going to cost?

"In Baghdad, the first U.S. Senate delegation to visit Iraq cautioned that Americans should expect their forces to remain in Iraq for as long as five years.
"I don`t think the American people fully appreciate just how long we are going to be committed here and what the overall cost will be," said Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., after meeting the head of the civil administration, L. Paul Bremer.
"I predict as much as five years," added Richard Lugar, R-Ind., the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee."

It doesn’t get any better after that. The American public has never been more in debt, most of the states cannot balance their budgets, or are broke, and the jobless picture is not improving. Twelve rate cuts have not helped that much, except for the real estate/housing sector. The coming one won’t do much either. All it will signal is a desperate Fed has essentially reached the end of the line with its rate cutting maneuvers.

The prognosis for the US economy is bleak and the bad guys running the US financial system know it. As is their way, they will exhaust all measures to "delude" the investing public that all is not that bad, that all is well and getting better. One of those measures is to manipulate and subdue the price of gold. They won another battle in those efforts today, but they will lose their war – a pathetic and sad war that will hurt the average American a great deal before it is over.

The Gold Cartel is huffing and puffing, doing all they can to take gold down and away from danger’s door above $370. It’s not going to work. The fundamentals are just too strong.

IN LATE: there was huge physical market buying today on the break out of India and the Middle East. They thank the "investment bank" sellers very much.

The good news for the day was gold held support right above $350 and closed well off its lows ($2.60). One can make a case the bullish flag formation is growing. However, as mentioned in the last MIDAS, gold must turn around quickly for that to be so. Otherwise, the cabal will send their crush team to take gold below $350 and turn the specs bearish.

Gold:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

The Gold Cartel and friends are really a bunch of sickos. Silver was allowed to go up a few cents because gold was tanked. How many times have I reported this to The Café? This is just not natural action. The funds were sellers today and the riggers and company were the buyers. The silver riggers cover their shorts often when gold is walloped.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, June 23, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.05, PM $$5.48, with world gold at $357.10 and $356. Ample for legal imports. Reuters today carries an Indian story quoting normally negative Indian Dealers conceding demand will pick up on lower prices, notwithstanding the season. It also notes that "the southwest monsoon is progressing well".

As seems now to be the pattern, gold rallied on early Asian trading today, holding over the NY close most of the time before NY opened. Japan was unenthusiastic: on volume equal to 32,265 Comex lots, down 19% from Friday, the active contract dropped 10 yen: but this meant that $US gold went out 40c above the NY close, at $357.20. Open interest was static (down 322 Comex) equivalent). (NY traded 25,235 lots on Friday: open interest was down 2,361.)

Friday’s combination of a firm $US and a steady stock market was no friend to gold during $US hours. But it is important to realize that gold’s attempt to break above $361 on early Friday morning did not go unchallenged. UBS notes:

"Friday’s high ($362.30 bid) was posted in early Asian trade …but the momentum couldn’t be maintained as good offers from the physical sector capped the advance."

Nevertheless, today gold is simply caught in the cross currents of media emotion concerning the Fed’s Wednesday rate decision. This process has disgusted even Caroline Baum, Bloomberg’s formerly independent minded columnist, who around the time of the outbreak of fighting in Iraq had a phase of being rather establishment orientated:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"that some central banker found it necessary to enlist the Wall Street Journal to correct the impression created by the Washington Post reveals the Fed`s intense desire to manage expectations in the market. The Fed`s stated goal of greater transparency is compromised by its communicating through selective press leaks….. Last week`s whipsaw price action in the Treasury market as a result of newspapers` contradictory Fed policy outlooks points to spotty clouds amid all the sunshine. When the central bank speaks anonymously through intermediaries, it raises uncertainty and reduces transparency."
(JB italics)

While all this mud is swirling around in the water, it is probably best (provided the key physical premiums are OK) to sit back, wait, and consider this weekend’s thought from Australia’s "The Privateer"

"The most ominous development over the past week has been the sudden steepening of the Treasury’s yield curve as the gap between short and long term yields widened, and the sudden spurt UPWARDS of the $US index. One possible reason for this sudden spurt which has NOT been considered is this. The HUGE global holdings of US Dollars are accompanied by a proportionately HUGE hedge position, in this case in the form of Dollar "shorts". If many foreign nations are seriously considering reducing their $US positions (and they are), a precursor to selling Dollars would be to sell down their hedge instruments. Covering shorts pushes up the price of an asset, and gives the opportunity to sell the instrument itself into a temporarily rising market."

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Der_Glueckliche]

...irgendwie kommt es mir so vor, als ob lemetropolecafe.com und aehnliche goldpusher von den Grossbanken bezahlt werden, um Anleger in Gold-Calls zu locken, damit die Banken beim anschliessenden Downmove des Goldpreises abkassieren koennen...

Anders kann ich mir die permanente Goldpusherei nicht erklaeren.

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Glückliche

Das ist aber schon lustig!

Du haust hier immer Deine Goldbasher Kommentare rein, ohne dass Du je eine konkrete Aussage zur zukünftigen Entwicklung der Goldpreise gemacht hättest.

Genauso wenig hast Du je einmal eine Begründung dafür abgegeben warum Du Tatsachen zum Gold einfach nicht sehen kannst, oder sehen willst.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Unglücklicher" es reicht ganz einfach nicht, Falschinformationen ohne Substanz zu Posten. Schon gar nicht falsche. Da solltest Du schon etwas mehr bieten.

Das ein Gold Futures Kontrakt 100 Unzen Gold entsprichst, und nicht wie Du noch letzte Woche hier behauptet hattest, 1000 Unzen, habe ich Dir ja bereits erklärt. Falls Du weitere Wissenslücken zum Goldgeschehen füllen möchtest, darft Du mich gerne fragen!

Dass Du mangels handfesten Argumenten, nun noch in billige Polemik verfällst, und in Verschwörungstheorien machst, die Du ja vorgibst nicht zu mögen, ist auch nicht sehr verständlich. Dass Du nun glaubst der GATA, und damit indirekt auch mir vorwerfen zu müssen, wegen meiner Postings der GATA zum Goldpreis Manipulationsgeschehen der Gold Bullion Banken, dass wir von Banken bezahlt würden, um den Goldabsatz zu pushen, ist ja sagenhaft, und zeugt davon, dass Du wirklich keine Ahnung hast, um was es in diesem Thread allgemein, und bei Gold überhaupt geht.

Möchtest Du Dich hier durch solche unqualifizierten, absolut falschen Verdächtigungen nur ein bisschen wichtig machen?

Die GATA wird ganz sicher nicht von Grossbanken bezahlt, im Gegenteil, die GATA bekämpft die Gold Preis Manipulationen der Gold Bullion Banken, der FED, etc.

Die GATA rät Dir physisches Gold, und Gold Aktien von ungehedgten Goldminen zu kaufen, und sicher nicht Gold Calls! Du bringst da anscheinend etwas ganz gealtig durcheinander.

Finanziert wird die GATA hauptsächlich durch Mitgliedsbeiträge von Gold Bugs, freiwillige Spenden, und Zuwendungen von einigen wenigen unabhängigen, ungehedgten Goldproduzenten, die nicht den Gold Bullion Banken nahestehen.

Falls Du Deine heutige Falschaussage revidieren möchtest, besuch die GATA doch einmal auf ihrer Homepage, und informiere Dich doch erstmal ein wenig, bevor Du so einen Stuss erzählst. Dazu benötigst Du nur etwas englisch Kenntnisse.

http://www.GATA.org

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Wessen Interessen vertritt eigentlich ein notorischer Falschaussagen Verbreiter, und Gold Basher wie "Der_Glückliche"?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The dollar closed up only two ticks at 94.47 and was lower against most currencies, the euro the notable exception.

Several earnings warnings tripped up the DOW (9073, down 128) and the DOG (1610, down 34). Of course, the PPT managed to bring the DOW back late, around 40 off its lows, to allay any sort of fears the market was in trouble. A "healthy correction" will be the normal comment from the market recap pundits.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

In my last repo report I drew attention to the unusually low recent repo adds and sounded a warning that the DOW may be ready to top and then fall.

The DOW tracks down 125 at this hour 11AM EST Monday. Today`s new total is $30.5Billion.

By attaching a thirty-day moving average to the repo total and the DOW we get a much better metric to track. I am gaining confidence each day that the thirty-day MA is close to the one chosen by the FED in their efforts to intervene in our otherwise free major stock market.



By direct inspection the 30-day moving average repo total line has "topped" and we are looking at a fairly large expiration [$14.25B] on Thursday. Thus the stage is set for a move downward in the repo total which would depress the repo total MA and begin the down cycle in earnest. This cycle should be well under way by the middle of July.

Perhaps the Fed is aiming at another burst of rate-cut based bond speculation to run that market to new highs?[See professor Fekete`s excellent commentary to Congressman Ron Paul nearby at the cafe]

In order to "profit" from their DOW control the Fed must cause periodic rises and falls in this major stock index and therefore generate selling which in turn generates much-needed capital gains tax revenues.

However, we must complete more than a complete sinusoidal cycle to be sure of this hypothesis. So I advise continued caution. We have only completed 1/2 of a cycle at this stage [As shown by the red MA line].

I don`t expect any wild 300 down point days, just smoothly controlled 150 to 180 moves. Nothing to alarm or upset.

Best,

Mike

Britain may not be in such great shape either:

Hi Bill,

Just had some conversation with some British people.
Over discussion over credit cards we soon came to talk about mortgage debt.

One of them is living inside the London city-center.
They are telling me that no one really in Britain really likes to rent flats anymore, because it`s such a good deal to buy them using mortgages. One of their friends just bought a flat on a 90% mortgage, paying only 10000 Pounds.

I was gently asking them if they don`t see this as a risky thing. They didn`t understand what I mean, because "..property prices are of course coming down a little bit from time to time, but in the long haul they are rising". This reminds me of the bubble talk I heard
2000 about the stock-markets. They are so happy, ones property already doubled in the last year!! I would get suspicious when noting such increase rates from already high levels, but they don`t.

But this is not all. They continued and told me it is possible to buy something with a 100% mortgage loan!!!!

Yes, interest rates are so low right now....blah blah.
They really don`t get it, that it could change and interest rates could go higher.
What is this? Are banks getting crazy there?
In fact we have to put into question WHO is buying the property there. Basically it`s the banks.

greetings from Budapest,
Paris of Eastern Europe

Markus


In Barron’s this weekend – more evidence from a central bank they don’t have the gold the public thinks they have:

Monday, June 23, 2003
INTERNATIONAL TRADER - EUROPE
By VITO J. RACANELLI

Double-Cross of Gold at Belgian Central Bank?

ONCE, PAPAL BULLS HELD SWAY on the Continent, but now a few words from a central bank governor suffice to send markets into a frenzy. Central banks love to pronounce economic solutions that make front-page headlines in the financial press. When it comes to keeping their own houses in order, however, it seems they don`t like to listen much.

Take the Banque Nationale de Belgique, the central bank of Belgium, a limited-liability company whose shares happen to trade on the Brussels Stock Exchange. The bank, which is 50% owned by the Belgian government, is locked in a battle with minority holders.

Confiscation is the issue, opines Erik Bomans, a partner at Deminor, a Brussels-based shareholder-rights group. "We claim that the bank has transferred to the state a substantial part of its gold and foreign-currency reserves without compensation for the bank or shareholders," he says. Deminor, along with at least one other group, has sued BNB in the Belgian courts over this, with the latest filing coming in April. Deminor represents shareholders with a total of about 12,000 shares, or 6% of the free float.

On Aug. 2, 2002, the Belgian Parliament adopted a provision regarding BNB, stating that one of the bank`s missions is administering the official currency reserves "of the Belgian state." Looking at BNB`s balance sheet, one can see that law transfers about 40% of the bank`s assets to the state and deprives shareholders of the entire net asset value, Deminor contends. This past February, when the bank`s 2002 annual report was issued, it referred to gold and currency reserves as "of the Belgian state," unlike the previous year`s report, which said the gold and reserves were "of the bank."

This is property of the bank and not the state, Bomans insists. The bank`s articles of association expressly stipulate that each share confers the right to a proportional and equal part in the ownership of the bank`s net assets and profits, he says. Deminor also suggests in its quarterly newsletter that "if the bank has no legal title to these reserves, its solvency ratio may go under the statutory and legal minimum," compelling a general meeting to vote on the liquidation of the bank.

Naturally, BNB strongly disagrees with Deminor`s position. In response to queries from Barron`s, a spokeswoman wrote: The Bank continues to own its gold and foreign-currency reserves but without having free disposal of them. It is legally required to allocate these assets to the tasks entrusted to it in the general interest, in particular monetary and foreign exchange policy. The law of Aug. 2, 2002 does not entail a transfer of these reserves to the state. However, a shareholder with 5% of BNB`s shares doesn`t own 5% of the bank`s gold and foreign-currency reserves. The shares entitle him a dividend, not to the reserves.

Since the country`s silverware isn`t about to be sold off to the highest bidder, this might seem a semantic issue, but BNB`s share-price action belies that. After years of sleepy movements, the shares began to skyrocket in the second half of last year as this fight hit the courts. Friday, they closed 90 per share, up from 00 less than a year ago. Meanwhile, Deminor`s Bomans claims that if BNB`s reserves were distributed to shareholders, then the shares would be worth anywhere from 47 to 087 each, depending on what assets are excluded. At the heart of the issue of shareholder rights is what assets legally belong to the bank.

BNB isn`t the only central bank to tussle with shareholders; the case echoes one between minority holders and the august Bank for International Settlements in Basel, sometimes called the central bank for central banks, and on whose board sits Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. As noted here in 2001 and 2002, BIS was sued by minority shareholders, accused of a making a low-ball bid for the 13.7% of its shares then still in public hands. Eventually BIS had to cough up more cash to take itself private. A court in The Hague ordered BIS to pay 23,500 Swiss francs per share, a 30% discount to the bank`s net asset value, up from 16,000 francs offered, a 53% discount.

Our best guess on the Belgian case is that the market is speculating that, should minority shareholders win their case, the government might be forced into taking the bank private -- to have a free hand in BNB`s activities -- and pay the minority holders a pretty penny for it. If BIS is any guide, look for another battle to decide what that price might be. In the meantime, the shares aren`t for the timid. Trading is illiquid and a court reversal could send the stock plunging. A final court decision could take up to another 12 months.

The final irony is that this brouhaha is taking place in Brussels, the headquarters of the European Union, which is hard at work trying to improve minority shareholder protection around the Continent.

-END-

James Turk’s take:

Bill

This Barron`s article on the Belgium central bank relays some important information. Here`s the key part of the Barron`s article:

quote
In response to queries from Barron`s, a spokeswoman wrote: The Bank continues to own its gold and foreign-currency reserves but without having free disposal of them. It is legally required to allocate these assets to the tasks entrusted to it in the general interest, in particular monetary and foreign exchange policy.
unquote

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">How can you own gold and NOT have "free disposal" of the gold? Ownership entitles you to do whatever you want with what you own.

Also, note how she buries her reply in double-talk and further confuses by associating gold with their foreign currency holdings. "Allocate these assets to the tasks entrusted to it in the general interest..." The task of gold is to act as a reserve by sitting in the central bank`s vault. When it sits in the vault (for example, like the French central bank`s gold), the gold is performing its most fundamental task, not "tasks" as the Belgian central bank spokeswoman replied.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Taken at face value I would conclude that substantially all of the Belgian gold is out on loan. If it wasn`t, the central bank would have "free disposal" of its gold, i.e., there would be no restrictions placed on it.

By the way, Belgium is one of the central banks that duplicitously reports "Gold & Gold Receivables" as one line item.

Regards
James

p.s. - Also, why didn`t Barron`s put the response of the spokeswoman in quotes? Was this a paraphrase or was the reply in French and this was Barron`s translation? I wonder what the rest of the reply said?

Belgium is supposed to have 258 tonnes in its vaults. Until recently, Portugal was thought to have 609 tonnes. Recent revelations reveal it has only 545 tonnes, of which 80% is either lent or swapped out!!!!!! How many other banks are in the same boat? Australia only has 3 ½ tonnes not lent out and Canada is just about out. It would not be hard to come up with the GATA camp`s 15,000+ number at all. THE GOLD IS GONE!

From long-time GATA supporter, Mark Lundeen:

Hi Bill

I sent a chart of week to week changes of the Barron`s Confidence Index to Mr. Russell this weekend, I am going to fax it to you too. Something has happened for the first time in over 60 years and it may be significant and thought you would like to see it.

"SUBJECT: My Letter to Mr. Russell ( Week to Week Change Chart on the Barron’s Confidence Index)

Bill if you look at this data vertically as one would look at as one of those graphs used in measuring an earth quake, it is clear that the movements on both sides of the base line are symmetric. Well, this data goes back to 1934 and at no time has this symmetry, similar to that of a earth quake, not held true with the Barron’s Confidence Index for the past 69 years.

The second term of the Clinton Administration is the quietest on the chart and then it started to get unstable starting with the GW Bush Administration and then last week it went wild.

With the stress in the derivatives and debt market the world are now facing I think that this could be one more confirmation of the coming problems in American finance and a bullish precursor for gold.

Mark"

Also

Gold is really getting hammered today, but that is just part of the Key Stone Cops drill that has been ruling the precious metals market for the past decade. The coppers come in and bang heads prior to any upcoming event that they know will be gold positive to drive out the gold spects out of potentially profitable positions. I bet you tomorrow gold will be up nicely with the crooks holding the long positions that they drove the suckers out of today. I know that this is not news to GATA, but at this point there is nothing new in the gold market, but that does not mean that the truth should not be repeated again and again.

The Wall Street / Washington Axis of Evil had decided that if the general investing public wants to hold gold in the palms of their hands via a leveraged position on the Comex, the big guys want to make sure it feels like molten gold so that the little people wont want to hold it too long. This too shall pass when people figure out that the metals commodity paper markets are all paper and no gold and decide to buy the metal itself with cash and walk away for good from the rigged table on Wall Street.

The upcoming FOMC meeting may be the turning point. The US$ is the rotten core of a rotten system that is getting very stingy in paying a decent return to its creditors for holding US debt in any form. These people are going to keep pushing down rates and using "unconventional methods" in the markets until they drive the system into the ditch. Count on it.

Mark

The gold shares took a hit with the XAU dropping 2.52 to 78.13 and the HUI sinking 5.32 to 148.40. The shake out is setting up a wonderful buying opportunity for investors who missed the recent run, or found themselves out of position. Of note was the trading action of Samex which bucked the trend, closing 8.3% higher at 26 cents US, tying its multi-year high close.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[erdede]

schwach, schwächer am schwächsten...

so ist das eben

[silverpwd]

Merke: Schwache Goldkurse werden von den Goldbullen grundsätzlich ignoriert oder alles günstige Kaufkurse.

[jeffery2]

Werden schon wahrgenommen, was gibt es dazu zu sagen, ausser eben schwach und das trotz aller schönen Kommentare.
Es wird Zeit,dass Wardriver wieder kräht, dann gehts aufwärts.
J2

[hpoth]

Genau wardriver muß sich wieder melden, dann gehts wieder gegen Norden.Trotzdem war es bei einer kurzfristigen Dollar - Erholung zur einer Gold-Korrektur im Bereich 350? kommen wird oder könnte, nun haben wir die Korrektur und schon wird gleich wieder stark übertrieben,Leute im Sommer ist nicht viel los es ist eben eine Sommerflaute, aber die muß sich eigentlich erst noch herrausstellen.
gruß hpoth

[silverpwd]

Für mich sieht das nicht so aus, also ob Gold vor der 200`er stoppen würde (ca. 342).

[manfred1_I]

Ich rechne Morgen mit einem grösseren Anstieg
beim Gold.

Warten wir es mal ab.

[Wardriver]

@hpoth

Es geht gegen die Wand,nicht nach Norden.

Wardriver

[ThaiGuru]

Weirdriver war im Thread, nun kann`s wieder aufwärts gehen!

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/US/fedraterisks_0306…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews



FOR: ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION

TSX SYMBOL: ELD
AMEX SYMBOL: EGO

JUNE 24, 2003 - 13:27 ET

Eldorado Gold Corporation: Gold Fields Divestiture

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--Paul N. Wright, President and Chief
Executive Officer of Eldorado Gold Corporation ("Eldorado", the
"Company", or "we"), announced today that Gold Fields Limited
("Gold Fields") has confirmed the divestiture of its shareholding
in Eldorado.

Gold Fields predecessor, Gencor Limited ("Gencor"), acquired its
initial shareholding in Eldorado in 1996 through the Company`s
acquisition from Gencor of a portfolio of assets which included
the Sao Bento Mine in Brazil.

As of December 31, 2002 Gold Fields held 30,479,959 (14.78%) of
the issued and outstanding shares of Eldorado. Since January
2003 Gold Fields has reduced its interest in the Company and as
of June 20, 2003 no longer holds shares in Eldorado. Gold
Fields` previous shareholding in the Company has been sold into
the market and the Company considers those shares to now be
widely held.

Eldorado is a gold producing and exploration company with gold
assets in Brazil and Turkey; two countries that we believe have
substantial geological potential. With our international
expertise in mining, finance and project development, together
with highly skilled and dedicated staff, we believe that Eldorado
is well positioned to experience continued growth and value as we
create and pursue new opportunities.

ON BEHALF OF

ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION

Paul N. Wright, President and Chief Executive Officer

[Der_Glueckliche]

was soll man denn bei diesem Text denken:

"...the 350 should hold otherwise the cabal will hammer the price down and turn the specs bearish..."

Das hoert sich so an, als ob LeMetropolecafe kein Interesse haette, dass die Spekulanten bearish werden(auf fallende Kurse setzen).

Warum?

Das Beste, das dem Goldpreis passieren koennte, waere, das die Kleinanleger endlich nicht mehr an einen steigenden Goldpreis glauben.
Denn dann kann er erst steigen.

Wenn Lemetropole bullische Spekulanten will, droht immer der `Goldpreisbash`.

Wenn die Spekulanten nicht mehr bullisch sind(Ueberwiegend Longpositionen halten), verdienen die Grossen nichts mehr am fallendem Goldpreis.

Ausserdem rate ich Dir, nicht mehr so ausfallend zu sein, sonst verkaufe ich meine Barren und dann geht der Preis noch mehr runter!

[kickaha]

@all

Hallo Goldfreaks,

kann mir einer von Euch erklären, warum die Zinsen gesenkt werden und gleichzeitig die Lebenshaltungskosten steigen?

Zinsenkung gegeb Deflation und gleichzeitig steigen die Preis?

Wer weis Rat?

Gruß kickaha

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Glückliche

Du mich auch!

[ThaiGuru]

@kickaha

In der gestrigen Ausgabe der "London Times" findest Du vielleicht die Antwort die Du suchst.



A story of the Fed in Wonderland as Greenspan puts emphasis on growth

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-723450,00.html

[ThaiGuru]

June 24 - Gold $346.50 down $6.50 - Silver $4.50 down 5 cents

SPIN!

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Politics is supposed to be the second oldest profession. I have come to realize it bears a very close resemblance to the first- Ronald Reagan

For the third day in a row, gold has been trashed in the United States – three days leading up to a US Fed Funds rate cut which will take interest rates to 1% or less. A dramatic rate cut move such as that does not get much more gold friendly. And for THAT reason, gold had to be punished by The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets.

Corrupt is too gentle a description for these goons. Over time, they have set in motion a series of market manipulations that are gradually taking down the US financial system. Truth is lost. Spin is in. The problem for these bums is that spin is only effective for so long. Unless economic reality improves to CATCH UP with the spin, all is lost. Unfortunately, it ain’t happening and little by little the US stock market is moving closer and closer to a real debacle.

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Except for a very modest dollar rally, the gold fundamentals are just as strong as they were a week ago. The coming cut in US interest rates will improve those fundamentals and outweighs the dollar`s slight move higher. So why the gold bashing?

Nothing new. Over the past many years, the more bullish an economic event has been for gold, the harder The Gold Cartel leans into it. We have watched this time and time again. Price action makes market commentary. They want gold headed off the investment radar screen as much as possible and want excitement about bullion to be on the ebb when the interest rate cut is announced.

Nothing has changed in the cabal’s modus operandi over the years except the price has moved up. That`s because the physical market is so strong and they are running out of gold to continue their scheme at lower prices. Nothing should change about gold moving higher either. Once the specs are turned bearish, the crooks will cover their shorts and gold will move right back up.

Speaking of spin, Bob Pisani, the veteran and able CNBC reporter, should be ashamed of himself. This morning he made note that gold was sharply lower. The reasoning according to his sources was that a 25 or 50-basis point cut was not inflationary and would be pro growth. HUH??!!??

Bob P: interest rates heading towards zero is about as bullish a gold event as one could wish for. Gold is only going down because it is being forced lower by a group that has been manipulating the price for over half a decade.

Speaking of the crooks:

Hearing that Deutsche Bank was the big seller in August gold and goldman and morgan stanley were aggressive buyers in the s&p futures.

Rgds
Mario

There’s Deutsche Bank again. Early on, they were very visible on the gold manipulation scene, but disappeared for some time. They’re back. I guess it’s their turn with the baton.

The Gold Cartel has completely broken gold down technically as we head into the drama of the Fed announcement tomorrow. They have achieved their goal. Rallies will be sold for awhile, regardless of how the financial markets react to the interest rate news and the accompanying Fedspeak spin.

The good news is breakdowns like these are not having the lasting effect they use to. By July 4th, gold ought to be up and moving again much to the chagrin of the cabal.

Anatole Kaletsky, in the London "Times" flatly says:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"this month’s rate cut will have nothing to do with economics. It will be a simple case of market manipulation…"

That’s right and neither does this recent gold price bashing have anything to do with the true state of the gold market. It has all to do with market manipulation. What is really absurd is the recent bout of talk about market manipulation when it comes to every market but gold. Talk of gold price manipulation seems to be outlawed in the mainstream world, yet the management of the gold price is the most obvious and devious of all – a manipulation that has been incredibly blatant for more than four years.

Why is it that no one in the mainstream financial press will even openly discuss it?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, June 24 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.54, PM $6.50, with world gold at $353.40 and $353.75. Comfortably above legal import point. HSBC notes:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"In the physical market the weakness in prices has attracted good levels of bullion demand, particularly from India, traders report."

Standard London says of yesterday’s NY dealing:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"…good scaled in physical buying slowed the decline."

And ScotiaMocatta is specific:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Gold fell all the way to a session low of 350.70/351.10 before bouncing back on overseas bargain hunting to finish the day 353.00/353.40."

(Middle Eastern and particularly Indian dealers work evenings.)

In a sense, this week is developing into a test between the view that gold is ruled by technically-influenced US-centric forces, or the bullion buyers of the Middle East and Sub-Continent.

Early in the Asian day, as usual nowadays, gold rallied. Mitsui-HK claims:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Led by strong buying on TOCOM that persisted past late afternoon, gold managed to devour trade profit taking and vaulted the 354.50 in Far East."

Actually, TOCOM open interest only rose the equivalent of 485 Comex lots on greatly heavier volume, equal to 59,051 Comex (+83% from Monday). This suggests a good part of the activity might have been Trade Houses paring down their perennial short positions. The active contract fell 19 yen, but $US gold went out 80c above the NY close at $353.60. Whatever the mechanics, Japan is not a source of gold price weakness at present. (NY traded 47,215 lots yesterday; open interest rose 282 lots.) .

Monday was, in fact a classic NY gold raid, as even the Bullion bank commentators freely acknowledge. Investec:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Fund selling appeared to dominate the futures market with consistent waves of orders coming from various brokers synonymous with that sectors flows. The weight of the selling triggered stop loss selling with liquidation also noted in the OTC market. The selling picked up after the trendline from the April sub-$320.00 lows gave way with the recent protagonist in the volatile markets on the floor seemingly active again."

Refco:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"From open on the COMEX gold, gold futures encountered trade and dealer selling, which lasted the bulk of the session."

ScotiaMocatta:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"funds…came into the market on the sell side, sending the local traders into a panic. There was a rush by locals to sell out their existing long positions pushing gold to 353.50 where dealers then appeared as sellers."

Double the volume of Friday (including, as usually happens in performances like this, a huge surge - 37% - in the last half hour as gold tried to rally), a total change in direction from Asia, and damage done to gold, both proportionately and technically far more serious than the minor firming of the dollar widely blamed. (Had gold matched the Dollar Index since year end, it would have been over $376 this morning.)

Not surprisingly, after an effort of this magnitude, there was follow- through this morning: with estimated Comex volume an staggering 60,000 lots by 11PM. One wonders, especially in view of the physical market activity, what the Bears will do for an encore, or, indeed, what kind of commercial theory they are working on.

Perhaps there is no commercial theory. After Caroline Baum’s Bloomberg column mentioned yesterday, grumbling about the degree of news management being undertaken by the Fed, an avalanche of similar stories has appeared. As is usual, the UK papers are far more incisive than the American. Anatole Kaletsky, in the London "Times" flatly says:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"this month’s rate cut will have nothing to do with economics. It will be a simple case of market manipulation …. Of course this kind of market manipulation cannot work forever … when unemployment starts dropping and growth accelerates above trend…the Fed will surely tighten policy quite severely, interest rates will rise sharply and bond prices will collapse. The question is when bond investors will start to anticipate this disaster…. When US economic recovery becomes self-sustaining, Greenspan will suddenly blow the whistle — and the losers will be the Bigger Fools still holding long bonds."

See:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-723450,00.html

JB italics. Kaletsky approves of these proceedings.

In a parallel piece in the Financial Times, Martin Barnes of the Bank Credit Analyst argues:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"In its increasingly desperate attempts to steer the US economy away from deflation, the Federal Reserve Board is blatantly encouraging increased leverage and speculation…Essentially, the Fed is telling the markets to have a party because the punch bowl will stay in place for a long time. Moreover, if the party starts to get too dull, the Fed will add another bottle of booze to the bowl."

All this is music to the ears of tormented gold friends, of course, but in the short run it is only reasonable to wonder if, in the orchestration of this grand theater, gold would be overlooked.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The Working Group on Financial markets managed to get the markets right where they want them going into the Fed announcement. The DOW closed 37 higher at 9109, the long bond moved up sharply, 28/32 to 120 13/32, the dollar was strengthened .36 to 94.83, and most importantly, gold was savaged.

The Stepford Wives/Matrix world trucks right along in US financial land. Everything is just fine. Tomorrow’s StepMat script calls for the EXPECTED rate cut with the Fed letting everyone know through their statement that the economy is on the mend. The zombies on Wall Street can then breathe a sigh of relief that all is well because Alan G and his Fed said so, even though the economy is SO BAD they HAVE to lower rates to the lowest levels in the US since the Eisenhower Administration in 1958. Once again, we have an example of life imitating art!

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $3.75 Billion to the repo pool today with no expirations. This action lifted the repo pool to $34.25Billion. At this hour the DOW is flat to up a smidge.

The 30-day moving average for the repo pool moved down a bit continuing to round off the topping formation while the DOW 30-day MA has yet to clearly level off. I am pleased that the camber of the current topping trace almost exactly matches the camber of the last bottoming trace. It is this remarkable symmetry that has my attention. It is just the sort of thing that Fed econo-physicists would glom onto. Underneath the seeming random day-to-day repo issuance is really a smooth running "machine".

Of note is the sharp move down by the DOW towards its 30-day MA. The piercing of this MA line will be an important [but not conclusive] milepost in validation of the repo pool metric. The trajectory points to Thursday or Friday.

Thursday June 26th will deliver an $18 Billion repo expiration so we can expect a small add by the Fed to yield a big drop in the repo pool.

Time will tell.

Mike

This headline is another example of spin - from Wall Street groupie Bloomberg News:

U.S. Economy: Consumers` Outlook in June Rises for Third Month

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence was higher than expected in June, driven by optimism about the economy`s prospects six months from now. Americans` view of the current economic situation deteriorated because of job losses.

The New York-based Conference Board`s consumer confidence index fell to 83.5 in June from 83.6 in May. The reading was forecast to fall to 82, the median of 62 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The index measuring consumers` attitudes about conditions in six months rose to 95.9, the highest since September, from 94.5…….
Over the past six months the economy has lost 342,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate has risen to 6.1 percent, the highest in more than eight years. The number of people who said jobs are plentiful now fell to 14.9 percent from 16.1 percent in May.

That may explain the decline in the index measuring attitudes about the current economy, which fell to 64.9 from 67.3 for the second monthly drop. – END-

The real news is that even after a supposedly successful end to the war in Iraq and a monster stock market rally, the consumer is a more pessimistic this month about the current economy than last. That’s not good at all. But, not only that, the headline is WRONG. The entire consumer confidence number fell a tenth. Only the expectation hope trade rose, which is meaningless.

Some illuminating input on spin from SARGE:

I don’t know if you have ever studied the origin of SPIN. It flourished under the hand of Edward L. Bernays (the nephew of Sigmund Freud). He was the one who promoted WWI as a way "to "Make the World Safe for Democracy." In one media event in 1929 he made it OK for women to smoke and destroy their lungs in public. He is the man who brought us BACON as THE breakfast food to eat. He set up the liaison between the AMA and the tobacco companies that promoted cigarettes as a "digestive aid." Yes, it’s true Midas. You can read the details at the link below.

There is a page on the web that has a very good summary of the mechanics of spin, including how to attack people like you (those engaged in revealing the truth).

A Bernays quote:

These early mass persuaders postured themselves as performing a moral service for humanity in general. Democracy was too good for people; they needed to be told what to think, because they were incapable of rational thought by themselves. Here`s a paragraph from Bernays` Propaganda:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Those who manipulate the unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. In almost every act of our lives whether in the sphere of politics or business in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires that control the public mind."

For those who are interested in the use of PR as a weapon, see the entire article here:

http://www.thedoctorwithin.com/articles/doors_of_perception.…

-END-

Chuck checked in last evening:

Bill:

Today has the look of the opening kickoff for the market. As you observed, it was even able to rally 40 points off the low. The sentiment figures are off the chart as is the public take (the Times this weekend.) The gold stocks have now opened down 5 or 6 straight days and there is the consistent put buying in the option futures.

The only negative thing I see is the large jump in the Rydex precious metals. This has been a good predictor of the stocks. This might mean a short correction again, but if the market begins to swoon, as I think is imminent, you could reverse sharply. The TFC sentiment numbers remain very skeptical or bullish.

I have a feeling that after the announcement tomorrow afternoon, we will see some fireworks. There is so much going on--FNM, FRE, IBM, and whatever else is lurking out there is corruptionland that we are near something very catastrophic. Keep the troops focused on the big picture. Chuck

And again this afternoon:

bill:

Getting ready to go to work so I thought I would shoot off some brief thoughts. First, this marks the 6th straight down opening on the gold shares. But in spite of the sharp drop in the bullion, the shares have held up well with some of them acting like the bullion is unchanged. This is Tuesday and I have noticed that often tops and bottoms have occurred on this day, perhaps due to the COT reporting or maybe just a coincidence.

As far as the market is concerned notice that just as it has every day that it has fallen over 100 points in recent months, it opened not down but up. This is very unnatural and reeks of some kind of concerted intervention or propping. Look to the reaction after the Fed`s announcement tomorrow for a better take on if this market is going to hold up through the quarter.

Prechter had a very interesting stat last night. The amount of reversals (new highs followed by a down weekly close) hit over 350 last week, a new record. This market is continually being distributed and soon those "body punches" will have their desired effects. Would like to see a good pop in the gold shares here. Chuck

Another reason for the gold bombing:

Midas,

Besides the Fed rate cut operations and the need to keep gold in a manageable area there seems to be another reason behind the price action of late. We are approaching the end of the quarter for many financial firms. Since their earnings reports are really only a snapshot in time of a dynamic business it appears that a low gold price helps them manage the snapshot they present to the outside world. With all of the funky derivative products out there, curisously a gold price @ the same price we saw at the end of 2002 seems to be in the offing. Is the $350 range a safe place when it comes to financial reporting for the largest gold players?

I`m off to find the closing price for gold for the March quarter.

Regards,

Rich K
Aspen, CO

Anecdotal gold positive in a note sent to John Brimelow:

Dear John:

You might be interested to learn that gold coin premiums have been strengthening yesterday and especially today, by ¾ % to 1%, a fairly large move. Spreads between American Eagles and Krugerrands have also widened by 1%. Both these are signs of buying pressure on dealers, and usually they are fairly reliable indicators that we are not far from a bottom, just as weakening indicators point to a fall.

Best wishes,
Franklin Sanders
The Moneychanger
[phone] or [phone]
www.the-moneychanger.com
[e-mail]

Is the gold manipulation game near an end, or will it go on for another five to ten years? If the gold share action is any indication of what is what, start licking your chops.

The HUI fell late, but only closed down 2.53 to 145.87. The XAU dropped 1.74 to 76.39. Most of my large gold share holdings barely fell at all.

Why the relative gold shares strength recently vis-à-vis the relative bullion weakness:

*While the mainstream financial press will not discuss the gold price manipulation, more and more gold share buyers DO GET IT and know it cannot last too much longer because of the incredibly strong gold fundamentals. GATA’s message is being heard.
*A reduction of the US Fed Funds rate to 1% or .75% is extremely gold bullish. In percentage terms, it is 20 to 40%, an enormous drop.

*Many in the investment world have come to realize the Fed/Treasury/ESF is actively managing the US markets. Historically, management such as this ends very badly.

*Stale gold shareholders have exited the picture. Dips over the past year have shaken many of them out. A number of the new gold shareholders have bought in for the big picture, the historic move of a lifetime. Orchestrated short-term sell-offs of the gold price are not so troubling these days. Been there, seen that, won’t last, is the new mindset.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[bluemoons]

Physisches Gold tief im Abseits – Doch das wird sich ändern
(24.06.2003)

Langsam, aber sicher verdient Gold gesteigerte Aufmerksamkeit. Die fortschreitende Erholung des amerikanischen Dollar hat bisher verhindert, dass die Notierungen die Marke von 350 Dollar je Feinunze unterschritten. Dabei ist die technische Belastung wegen der immens hohen offenen spekulativen Kaufengagements enorm. Sie bilden ein massives Liquidationspotential, das die Notierungen durchaus um 15 bis 20 Dollar drücken könnte, wenn es, aus welchem Grund auch immer, ausgelöst werden sollte.

Der Umstand, dass Gold trotz der Erholung des Dollar dem drohenden Liquidationsdruck bisher widerstehen konnte, regt mancherorts zum Nachdenken an. Gibt der Markt vielleicht zu verstehen, dass sich die Spielregeln geändert haben? Oder halten die Terminfonds an ihren Kaufengagements fest, weil sie erkannt haben, dass der Dollar gar nicht mehr die ausschlaggebende Rolle spielt, sondern ganz andere Kräfte auf die Preisbildung einwirken?

Nun kann man nicht behaupten, dass die spekulativen Fonds besonders intelligent sind. Sie orientieren sich fast ausschließlich an technischen Merkmalen, und wenn sie aktiv werden, ist dies letztlich nichts anderes als Ausdrucks eines Herdentriebs. Warum sie derzeit stillhalten und nicht liquidieren, muss daher nicht weiter hinterfragt werden.

Fest steht, dass der Terminmarkt für Gold nun schon seit einigen Jahren weit mehr Interesse auf sich zieht als der physische Markt. Nur gelegentlich, wenn zum Beispiel Gold Fields Mineral Services wieder einmal einen Lagebericht vorlegt, rücken Aspekte des physischen Marktes für kurze Zeit in den Vordergrund.

Ein so ausgeprägtes Desinteresse, wie es der physische Goldmarkt seit langem ertragen muss, weckt die Aufmerksamkeit jener, die es schätzen, sich strategisch so positionieren, dass sie voll engagiert sind, wenn die Masse auf eine sich tatsächlich oder vermeintlich bietende Chance aufmerksam zu werden beginnt. Ein ungeliebter, vernachlässigter und auch weithin nicht richtig verstandener Markt wie der physische Goldmarkt drängt sich dem „Smart Money“ geradezu auf, weil es hier unbemerkt und ungehindert seine Netze bauen kann.

Bisher ist das Interesse privater Anleger an physischem Gold nahezu belanglos. Dies gilt auch als der entscheidende Grund dafür, dass der physische Markt wie ein lästiges Anhängsel des Terminmarktes erscheint. Doch es sollte zu denken geben, dass ein in London notierter geschlossener Fonds von Merrill Lynch seit Anfang Mai mehr als eine Tonne physischen Goldes erworben hat. Wie verlautete, betrachten die Fondsverwalter das physische Gold als eine besondere Form der Liquidität.

Genau das ist es, was mit fortschreitender Zeit mehr und mehr Anlegern bewusst werden dürfte. Im Hintergrund steht die unverrückbare Tatsache, dass die weltweit wieder stark wachsende Staatsverschuldung den Wert der bedeutenden Währungen zunehmend aushöhlt. Vor einer solchen Aushöhlung ist Gold nicht nur geschützt, sondern es bietet sogar Schutz vor einer Aushöhlung der Währungen.

Mit anderen Worten: Es wird die Erkenntnis wachsen, dass Gold das bessere Geld ist. Doch bis sie sich in breiteren Kreisen durchzusetzen beginnt, muss noch ein großer Teil des Wegs durchschritten werden, den die deflationären Tendenzen vorgeben. Dennoch naht der Zeitpunkt, zu dem sich Anleger aller Klassen bis hin zu den Finanzabteilungen von Unternehmen mit der Frage befassen müssen, ob der Erwerb physischen Goldes zu noch niedrigen Preisen nicht dringend erforderlich ist, um der langfristig vorgezeichneten, zunächst noch schleichenden Kapitalvernichtung vorzubeugen.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber
Taurosweb.de

[Tippgeber1]

@all

Die Analysten sind sich auch uneinig .....




Analyst negativ zum Goldsektor, Abstufung

Analyst David Christensen von der CS First Boston stuft den Goldsektor von „Over Weight“ auf „Market Weight“ ab und bezieht sich dabei auf die „erschreckend“ schwache operative Performance der Goldminenbetreiber aufgrund höherer operativer Kosten. Im zweiten Quartal habe der durchschnittliche Goldpreis $346 nach $352 im ersten Quartal betragen. Das ist das erste Mal seit 10 Quartalen, dass der Goldpreis sequentiell (Quartal zu Quartal) nicht gestiegen ist, so der Analyst. Aus den meisten Berichten, besonders jenen aus dem Edelsteinsektor, sei ersichtlich, dass die Nachfrage nach Gold nachgelassen habe. Zudem stieg der Goldpreis in den letzten drei Monaten um 11%, während Goldaktien um 21% zulegten. Dies sei eher eine kurzfristige spekulative Positionierung der Anleger als eine durch eine Verbesserung der Fundamentaldaten untermauerte Neubewertung der Unternehmen, so Christensen weiter.

Analyst erhöht Kursziel für Gold

Analyst John Tumazos von Prudential hat das Kursziel für Gold im Jahr 2003 von $340 auf $359.50 erhöht und rechnet nun im Jahr 2004 mit einem Preisanstieg auf $375 – das ursprüngliche Ziel für 2004 lag bei $325. Damit möchte man die Schwäche des US-Dollar einkalkulieren. Zudem erhöhte der Analyst die Gewinnprognosen für die Goldunternehmen Barrick Gold, Placer Dome und Newmont Mining. Zudem wurde Newmont von „Verkaufen“ auf „Halten“ aufgestuft.

Liebe Grüße

Tippgeber

[Wavetrader]

Gold in Euro beobachten! Hier droht ein False Break der 300, hält die Marke, umso besser!



Gold befindet sich nahe dem 2-Jahres-Tief:

[erdede]

ein typisches Muster lässt sich wieder mal beim Gold erkennen...bei 349 war schnüss und der Druck wird nunsukzessive erhöht und die Bullen müssen wieder doppelt so viel aufbringen
erdede

[ThaiGuru]

Das miese Spiel des Gold Cabals!

Vor drei Tagen stand Gold auf 357.- Dollar pro Unze!

Der Dollar Index wurde mit 94 bewertet.

Zwischenzeitlich hat Gold charttechnisch urplötzlich, trotz starker Nachfrage, wichtige Unterstützungslinien durchbrochen, und fällt gestern auf 346.50 Dollar pro Unze. Der Dollar Index stieg dabei auf wundersame Weise auf 94.6 Zähler

Heute, drei Tage später fällt der Dollar Index bereits wieder unter 94.

Gold müsste darum eigentlich währungsbedingt jetzt wieder bereits auf mindestens 357.- Dollar stehen.

Dass Gold in Euro gerechnet heute Morgen so billig wie vor 2 Jahren zu kaufen war, hat uns Wavetrader anhand seiner geposteten Euro Gold Charts ja bereits aufgezeigt.

Was die FED und die Gold Bullion Banken mit dem Gold Preis, durch ihre Manipulationen abziehen, wird sich höchst wahrscheinlich bald einmal in eine gewaltige Explosion verwandeln.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



Vermutlich hat die FED die Goldpreise sicherheitshalber durch einige Gold Bullion Banken soweit drücken lassen, das ein zu erwartender Goldpreisschub nicht über die 360.- Dollar Marke führt.

Entweder man sieht es, oder man sieht es nicht!

[fiesje]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=36938

Japanese demand supported gold.

25.06.2003 13:31

Spot gold traded in a tight range

Wednesday, weighed down by ongoing long liquidation but getting some support from central bank buying and demand from other sources.

All agree the gold market, indeed all financial markets, are muted ahead of a rate cut decision from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee, the policy making arm of the Federal Reserve. An announcement is expected later Wednesday.

Spot gold was quoted early in Australia at US$347.60 a troy ounce and held around this level through Asian trading.

Japanese demand supported gold.

There are a lot of Japanese buying. The interest in the past few sessions has been on (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) and that`s also been compounded by some central bank buying, which we`ve been seeing. The trader couldn`t or wouldn`t identify the central bank, but said there was certainly enough demand from that source to steady gold and push its price up after Tuesday`s downdraft in New York.

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn jetzt schon Wallstreet Journal schreibt, dass eine Zentralbank nicht etwa als Verkäufer, sondern man höre und staune, als Gold Käufer auftritt, dürften wir Gold Bugs uns bald wieder auf steigende Gold Preise gefasst machen.

Das die chinesische Zentralbank kontuinierlich physisches Gold dazukauft, und ihre Goldbestände aufstockt, ist ja bereits bekannt. Hoffen wir, dass es sich bei der nicht namentlich genannten Zentralbank um eine weitere asiatische Zentralbank handelt, die weitsichtig genug, ihre physischen Goldbestände aufbaut.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030625A…



Central Bank Buying Helps Lift Gold In Asia - Trader

Canberra, June 25 (Dow Jones) - Gold buying by a central bank has helped support gold in Asian trading Wednesday and for the past several trading days into last week, according to a Sydney-based trader.

At 0502 GMT, spot gold was quoted at US$347.75 a troy ounce, steadying after Tuesday`s downdraft in New York that pushed gold to a low of US$345.95 after trading as high as US$358.40.

The trader said he also has seen a lot of Japanese buying, without speculating a reason for the Japanese interest.

"The interest over the past few sessions has been on (the Tokyo Commodity Exchange)," the trader told Dow Jones Newswires.

"That also has been compounded by central bank buying, which we`ve been seeing," he added. "I don`t think the movements we`ve seen in gold in this time zone have too much to do with the U.S. (dollar)."

The trader refused to identify the central bank he said has been buying gold.

Demand from this source has certainly been sufficient to steady spot gold after the overnight fall and push prices up a little Wednesday, he said.

"It`s been a feature of this week and also of last week," he said, noting a recent pattern of modest price gains in Asian trading in recent sessions.

"I believe they`ve been trading in early London as well," he added.

Ray Brindal, Dow Jones Newswires, 612-6208-0902 [e-mail]


Dow Jones Newswires
06-25-030154ET

Copyright (C) 2003 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.etaiwannews.com/Business/2003/06/25/1056503747.ht…

Business

Gold jewelers bank on wedding glow

2003-06-25 / Taiwan News, Staff Reporter / By Marie Feliciano

For Taiwan`s savvy gold entrepreneurs, the ringing of wedding bells echoes the "ka-ching" of cash registers.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Weddings are big business for Taiwan`s gold jewelry retailers,"

Gerry Chen, manager of GC Marketing Consultants Co. Ltd., said at a "Glow with Gold" promotion targeting future brides yesterday.


A model wears Taiwan-made gold jewelry at a show organized by the World Gold Council in Taipei yesterday. (Ricky Yi, Taiwan News)

GC Marketing is a consultant to the World Gold Council, a 16-year-old London-based organization that is funded by the world`s leading gold mining companies.

According to Chen, an average of 170,000 Taiwanese couples are expected to walk down the aisle this year, with each pair consuming around 70 grams or two-and-a-half taels of gold jewelry. The lustrous booty is expected to cost the bride`s in-laws between NT$40,000 and NT$50,000, said the gold promoter.

That`s roughly NT$8.5 billion injected into Taiwan`s gold jewelry trade annually, he added.

"For us Taiwanese, gold jewelry is a `must-have` present at weddings and engagement ceremonies," Chen continued. "The groom has to prepare six gifts for his bride, and one of them has to be gold jewelry. That`s tradition."

It`s a tradition that is not only giving Taiwanese women more bling-blings, it is also giving Taiwan`s sluggish gold jewelry trade a shot in the arm, added the promoter.

weiter....

http://www.etaiwannews.com/Business/2003/06/25/1056503747.ht…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4681493&act…

Breaking news

(AFX-Focus) 2003-06-25 17:44 GMT: Gold futures climb; metals indexes up 2%

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- August gold is up $2.80 at $349.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange with just over a hour left in the trading session. Metals shares are following suit, with the Amex Gold Bugs Index up 2 percent. Among the sector`s biggest gainers are Goldcorp , which is trading at $11.88, up 3 percent, and Harmony Gold , up 2.9 percent at $14.03. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

[ThaiGuru]

http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm

Open Market Operations

Temporary Open Market Operations: 06/25/2003
The Desk has entered the market announcing: No Action

[ThaiGuru]

Wünschte mir, es wäre schon 20:15 Uhr!

[ThaiGuru]

Die Zinssenkung von 0.25% scheint nicht gerade die Gemüter zu bewegen?

Bis jetzt wenigstens auch kein "Direkt Access Goldhandel"

[ThaiGuru]

June 25 - Gold $348.90 up $2.40 - Silver $4.56 up 6 cents

US Financial Markets Look Precarious

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys."
-- P. J. O`Rourke

Any way you look at it, the 25-basis point Fed Funds rate cut to 1% is very gold friendly. The Fed is pouring money into the US financial system to stave off deflation. In doing so, they have sent real US interest rates further into negative territory, as the rate of inflation far exceeds the new Fed Funds rate. Historically, that has always been bullish for gold demand.

The gold lease rates are running around a half a percent. If any tightness shows up in the lending area and rates move up from here, gold will go into backwardization, an almost unheard of event in the gold world. Who knows what that could do to various hedgebooks. Certainly, it would cause many to be more aggressive in covering their forward sales.

Gold was about to take out $350 when it was slammed by the goon squad on the bell. As a colleague said this afternoon: anyone who watches the gold market and doesn`t understand it is a manipulated market is a "moron." Mentally challenged at a minimum.

Why is John Embry the only one in the gold world willing to publicly tell it like it is? His commentary last evening on the CNBC of Canada:

********************
June 24, 2003
ROB-TV`s Nightcap:
with host Howard Green.

Host: Well tomorrow is the Fed day many have been waiting for to see if Greenspan and company will in fact cut rates perhaps as much as 50 basis points. If that happens, no doubt there will be an impact on the U.S. dollar and possibly on gold.

Joining us this evening on Nightcap gold expert John Embry of Sprott Asset Management. Good to have you back with us John.

Embry: Thanks Howard. It`s always nice to be here.

Host: So um, tomorrow if he does drop rates 50 basis points, what do you see for the U.S.dollar and then gold?

Embry: Well I suspect he might, given the beating gold took today. They generally soften gold up when they`re going to do something that might be gold friendly. And it was amazing. It came in there very quietly into New York this morning. They just jumped it. And they took it down just about 6 or 7 bucks just like immediately. And at that point I thought to myself hmmm... Maybe it is going to be 50 basis points. I think that sends the wrong message `cause he`s trying to sort of promote the idea that the U.S. economy is getting better. And the second half is going to be better. If that`s in fact the case, 50 basis points looks like overkill. So we`ll wait and see. As I said, I`m waiting with baited breath.

Host: Often he surprises people. And if a lot of people are saying it`s going to be 50 he might come in at 25 just to save himself an arrow there.

Embry: That`s an interesting observation `cause there was a lot of controversy over a couple of articles in the newspaper last week. The Washington Post ran an article saying it was going to be 50bps. The next day one of the New York papers came back and said, the Wall Street Journal I guess, had a totally different slant on it. It was almost like he`s managing the news?

Host: Trying to confuse people maybe?

Embry: Absolutely, absolutely.

Host: Yeah, and so what would that mean for gold if it were say 25 basis points tomorrow?

Embry: I don`t think it makes much difference to be quite honest. We`re in sort of the accumulation phase for gold. These short term machinations dancing around you know sort of alleged news events, I don`t think are that significant. As I said before, this an `actively managed` commodity. And I think the reason it was soft today is they`re getting ready to have a bigger rate-cut than anticipated. We`ll wait and see.

Host: What`s going to be the catalyst for these gold stocks to start to move again?

Embry: The Gold stocks will move on a better gold price. I mean it was interesting. The gold stocks were acting quite a bit better up until about three days ago. And I thought: well maybe we`ve got something going here. But then they beat gold up again and they sort of pushed it back into the box. But it`s just... the early stages of bull markets are difficult. Nobody believes it. And you have these violent corrections and everybody loses confidence. And then we start building the base again. It gets ready to creep-up. I`m not the least bit concerned. I think the fundamentals behind gold, when you look at what`s going on in the United States, are as powerful as they have been in thirty years.

Host: But there seems to be a lot of interest in a lot of other types of stocks these days.

Embry: There is indeed. I mean what you`ve got is the entire U.S. system floating on a absolute sea of liquidity. Now I mean Mr. Greenspan has been I think WAY over the top in the amount of liquidity he`s providing the system. My gut reaction to that is: Is there something we don`t see that`s bothering him like Long Term Capital Management? When he`s talking about deflation I look at Freddie Mac and this issue with derivatives. Like The Long Term Capital Management only came to the surface five years ago. There had been a lot of work done beforehand, before it was ever announced. I think the Freddie Mac thing could be much more serious than people think. This is a big, big sort of part of the U.S. financial structure now. Very strange behavior when they fired the three executives.

Host: Just to finish up - we`ve got about 45 seconds here. A lot of people talk about gold being useful in inflationary times. What about in deflationary times?

Embry: History would say that anything that basically puts financial assets at risk, and given the amount of debt in the system, if you had deflation -- and heaven help it if we ever do-- I mean that would be the last thing I would ever want to see. I mean you would have so much financial chaos people would run, I think, to an eternal store of value which is gold. Gold does poorly when you have disinflation and financial assets do well. Financial assets will not do well in deflation.

Host: Ok. That`s all the time for Nightcap. Stick around for Market Call.
We`ll look forward to it. Embry: Great.

Host: That`s the business news for this evening. For those of you who are watching us live, my guest will be John Embry, President of Sprott Asset Management. He`ll be answering your calls and e-mails about gold and precious metals.

-END-

/www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, June 25 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums AM $6.83, PM $6.54, with world gold at $$347.50 and $348.25. High: well above legal import point. Keeping gold down here is going to cost the Bears a lot of physical. (Paper does not work with Indians.) The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium, at $3.77, is also very high (it does not yet have the track record of the Indian).

TOCOM was rather more cautious than on Tuesday morning, which in turn meant that opening European pressure was less marked. On volume equal to 69,869 Comex lots (up 18.3% on Tuesday) the active contract fell 25 yen to a 5 week low, but $US gold actually edged up $1.65 from the NY close. In essence, Japan once again held world gold steady. Open interest fell 441 Comex equivalent. (The TOCOM members’ open interest data, issued the following day, implies there was indeed some modest –c. 2500 Comex -accumulation by the public on Tuesday. Possibly the same occurred today.)

Comex reports open interest fell 3,218 lots yesterday on 60,259 contracts of volume. Speaking of Monday’s data, Mitsui-NY remarks:

"Surprising to note open interest for Monday was down just 2500 lots, so not as much liquidation as expected."

Which essentially recurred yesterday, suggesting that gold’s $10+ drop this week involved more shorting than the wire services have been suggesting.

Tuesday in NY was of course virtually identical to Monday, with gold being brutally beaten by the same parties, probably for the same reason. Refco Research has an interesting discussion on its website http://research.refco.com by James Steel and Tom Boustead on "Gold & Fed Interest Rate Cuts" which notes that gold has responded most to 50 bp cuts which have been well advertised. Such a response from the gold price level obtaining most of the past month would have put gold at an effective new high for the year, possibly not welcome news in certain quarters.

Along similar lines, AIG’s Bernard Connolly, in a piece entitled "The Fed: Staring from here" devotes several pages to tracking the Fed’s expectation management, and summarizes:

"The FOMC meeting that is just beginning has claim to being the most important since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle in January 2001. Because this may be the meeting at which the Fed gets to "virtually zero" rates and has to put in place a strategy for continuing to have a monetary policy impact….We are pretty sure that the Fed is going to end up acting directly on the long end by buying bonds."

In other words, this time the Fed will not just cut rates; it will make clear an intention to do something weird. Under these circumstances expecting the gold price to go its historically irreverent way is, in the early 21st Century, probably unrealistic. At least, in the short term.

A well respected bullion dealer’s comment on the effect of the SA Finance minister

"Mbweni is killing S African platinum expansion projects" which of course applies to SA mining generally, is all too justified, but no surprise to those who have grasped the meaning of

http://www.vdare.com/misc/rushton_iq.htm

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (9011, down 98) and the DOG (1602, down 3) were hit after the interest rate news. 9,000 and 1600 are key support levels. Hard to think about what could take stocks up from here. Looks to me as if the stock market could get buried at any time.

Bonds were whacked after the Fed Funds announcement to 118`26, down 1`15, putting in a very noticeable key reversal/outside day to the downside.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

If the bonds take out 118, look out below. It could get very ugly, especially if the dollar gets savaged.

The dollar rallied off of a severe beating to close at 94.55 down .28

Oil is knocking on $30 per barrel again, running up over $1 to $29.95. Whatever happened to the cheap oil dividend following the Iraq war?

If the stock and bond markets are hit, along with a sinking dollar, we could have a financial market bloodbath in the US. How long are foreigners going to keep their money here when they are losing on all counts. Good grief!

The US economic news continues to stink up the place:

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly dropped in May for a second month, as bookings for autos, computers and machinery declined, a government report showed, casting doubt on the extent of a pickup in business confidence following the war with Iraq.
Orders for items made to last at least three years decreased 0.3 percent to $168.3 billion, the lowest since June 2002, after dropping 2.4 percent in April, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding bookings for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2 percent last month following a 1.5 percent drop. –END-

All except for the housing sector, which is bubble-izing along thanks to the incredibly low interest rates. Housing starts were very strong.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed reported "No Action" today leaving the repo pool totals at $34.25 Billion and further setting the stage for what may be a large net expiration even tomorrow. The expiration schedule calls for $18Billion. The Fed may, as per their usual action, add a small amount thus leaving a net reduction of the pool. It will be interesting to watch as the DOW 30-day up slope is still intact and needs to start down.

The dollar is headed back down this AM and that will take repo pool and ESF funding to "Manage". Perhaps the Multi-Polar world didn`t get what it wanted in the UK and is once again selling dollars?

The DOW is persistently up 55 at this hour. If the Fed really wants the DOW down badly, it will allow the whole $18Billion to expire tomorrow.

Mike

If true, this is very good news:

Central Bank Buying Helps Lift Gold In Asia - Trader
Wednesday June 25, 1:54 am ET

Canberra, June 25 (Dow Jones) - Gold buying by a central bank has helped support gold in Asian trading Wednesday and for the past several trading days into last week, according to a Sydney-based trader....

The trader said he also has seen a lot of Japanese buying, without speculating a reason for the Japanese interest.

"The interest over the past few sessions has been on (the Tokyo Commodity Exchange)," the trader told Dow Jones Newswires.

"That also has been compounded by central bank buying, which we`ve been seeing," he added. "I don`t think the movements we`ve seen in gold in this time zone have too much to do with the U.S. (dollar)."

The trader refused to identify the central bank he said has been buying gold.

Demand from this source has certainly been sufficient to steady spot gold after the overnight fall and push prices up a little Wednesday, he said.

"It`s been a feature of this week and also of last week," he said, noting a recent pattern of modest price gains in Asian trading in recent sessions.

"I believe they`ve been trading in early London as well," he added.

Ray Brindal, Dow Jones Newswires, 612-6208-0902 [e-mail]

Another price-rigging conspiracy. What else is new?

Stolt-Nielsen Official Is Charged
In Global Price-Fixing Inquiry

By JAMES BANDLER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Federal prosecutors charged a top executive at Stolt-Nielsen Transportation Group with being part of a global price-fixing and bid-rigging conspiracy to suppress competition in the chemical shipping industry.

Executive Vice President Richard Wingfield, managing director of parcel trading at Stolt, was arraigned in federal district court in Philadelphia and charged with a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. He is the first to be charged in the wide-ranging federal grand jury probe……. –END-

When are the chumps in the gold world going to admit their market is as rigged as any in the world? Answer: probably never. Not those wimps. Part are cowards and a few are in on the fix.

GATA`s Mike Bolser sends the following, which demonstrates how dramatic the Fed Funds rate drop has been the past 8 years, especially over the past two:

Fed Funds Interest Rates

01/04/1995 5.40
12/20/1995 5.90
12/27/1995 5.48
10/16/1996 5.22
03/12/1997 5.19
07/02/1997 5.82
07/29/1998 5.54
11/25/1998 4.54
03/31/1999 4.84
03/29/2000 6.01
04/05/2000 6.12
07/05/2000 6.85
10/04/2000 6.58
04/25/2001 4.42
07/18/2001 3.76
09/19/2001 2.47
01/09/2002 1.64
11/13/2002 1.21
06/11/2003 1.24

Are they desperate, or what?

Over that period of time, the contango (the price difference between various futures contracts) has almost completely disappeared. As a result, there is almost no incentive to hedge forward positions, especially in a rising gold market. Hedgers with half a brain will step up their forward sale covering, as few market commentators expect short-term US interest rates to go up anytime in the near future.

Chuck checked in early this morning:

Bill:

I had noticed that the Rydex precious metal assets had jumped sharply over the last week and this has usually preceded a drop in the shares. Well today they had the largest single day drop that I can remember. This reaction matches the obvious selling by weak hands and possible stop orders in the bullion. If the shares dip on the opening Wednesday and then reverse, the worst will probably be over. Flip that opinion on the stock market. I don`t know how many more times this thing can be propped up. Perhaps right after the end of the quarter, but maybe sooner. Chuck

And again this afternoon:

Usually Fed decision days are non-events. Whatever they decide to do has been already factored in the financial markets, and after some gyrations the markets calm down and return to its primary trend. Given the calamitously weak technical condition of both the bond and stock markets, I felt somehow that today might be different, and no matter what cut the Fed announced, the reaction would be negative. That is why I suggest we keep an eye on the big picture rather than the media slant that we have reentered the kingdom of the bull where sell offs are short and temporary, and the Lords of the Kingdom make certain you will never have to fret about your investments again. Unfortunately, this is just mythical nonsense.

Because of the length and extent of the financial bubbles, the hope of an everlasting bull market in stocks, bonds and housing remains entrenched in the minds of the world investors, in spite of the technical and financial evidence. My sense is that today the bear has come out of hibernation, and this time he will take no prisoners, stock, bond and housing speculators alike. The decline will be frightening and bring panic everywhere.

The only question is whether or not there is some sympathy in the precious metals complex and whether or not the dollar turns strong or tanks. My take is that the golds will not join in a general collapse since the technical condition and the charts of the golds are far different than that of the regular stock market. The heavy put buying in the future options remains historically high. The Rydex assets plummeted yesterday, indicating that there was a flight out of the shares. Again bullish. The charts remain extremely positive although as we know this is sometimes subject to change. Gold and the shares, if they are going to bust out here, should move shortly, perhaps after the first few days of the next quarter. In the meantime, take this event all in. It will be something to remember. Chuck [e-mail]


The short position in Newmont now stands 16.5 million, up from 15.8 million.

Some of the late gold selling as gold approached $350 was option related from the OTC gold crowd, according to floor sources. Those same sources say gold needs to take out $355, basis the August contract, to get back in a bullish mode.

The gold shares were very firm early, but sold off late again. The HUI ended the day up 1.30 to 147.17 and the XAU gained .78 to 77.17.

When gold is attacked by The Gold Cartel like it just was, it rarely goes right back up. Too much damage done. We may need to diddle around here for a bit, filling today’s gap etc., so patience may be required at the moment. However, I do think it important to keep in mind that gold remains explosive. Only the continuing price suppression by a bunch of anti-trust violating crooks is keeping the gold price from soaring. They are going deeper and deeper into their self-created hole to pull off their fraud. At some point, an event is going to come out of the blue, which will be of such magnitude it will send investors all over the world into gold. It will be too much for the cabal and they will go down to defeat.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Der_Glueckliche]

Informationen ueber Goldhaendler(Barren-Grosshandel):

www.lbma.org.uk[/URL

[erdede]

so stimmts wieder, starker Dollar , schwaches Gold
Gold kannsch langsam de Hase gäbe...

erdede

[ThaiGuru]

@Der_Glueckliche

Geh doch mal besser auf die HILFE Seite von W:O!

Da erklären sie Dir wie man einen Link in den Thread setzt.

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Kann Dich gut verstehen, hast wohl auch ne sau Wut im Bauch?

Dieses miese Spiel des Gold Cabals geht schon jahrelang so. Aber heute ist die Ausgangslage bedeutend anders als vor noch vor 2 oder 3 Jahren.

Früher hat eine solche Preismanipulation ausgereicht, um Gold für Monate unten zu halten. Heute gehts bedeutend schneller wieder hoch. Einige Tage sollten reichen, und Gold sucht sich wieder seinen Weg nach oben.

Manipulieren kann man den Goldpreis durch Papierverkäufe sicherlich, Fundamental ändert sich aber an der starken Goldnachfrage, und dem jahrelangen Gold Produktionsdefizit trotzdem nichts. Im Gegenteil, je tiefer die Goldpreise fallen, desto mehr Nachfrage nach echten physischem Gold entsteht, und vergrössert das Problem des Gold Cabals noch zusätzlich.

Lass Dich nicht entmutigen, dass wäre gerade genau das, worauf es das Gold Cabal abzielt, damit sie selbst wieder Zeit gewinnen, um ihre Shortpositionen glattzustellen, und um Goldminen Aktien günstig einsammeln zu können.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Wardriver]

@Thai

Kommt jetzt schon wieder der Manipulations-Unsinn,geh doch lieber einen saufen und verdumm deine Leser nicht so.

Wardriver

[erdede]

@wardriver

du weisst ja...
wer immer seinen Senf dazu gibt.. kommt leicht in Verdacht ein Würstel zu sein
und achte viel lieber auf Deine Gesundheit, deine Leber mecht i nid gschenkt

erdede

[Wardriver]

@erdede

Ein paar Pils haben noch keinem geschadet.

Wardriver

[hpoth]

@ wardriver,

auch hier immer die letzten Sprüche, unverbesserlich, solltest Dir mal ein Beispiel nehmen an ThaiGuru, der bringt wenigstens konstruktive Beiträge, bei Dir sind es ja überwiegend bissige Kommentare und Gehässigkeiten sonst ist ja nichts von Dir zuvernehmen.hpoth

[Der_Glueckliche]

Also, wer sich fuer den echten Goldmarkt, den Handel mit Barren im Grossen, interessiert, kann mal diese Seite anklicken:

www.lbma.org.uk

Dort sind alle Grossen Metallhaendler aufgefuehrt, das sind die, die auch den Goldpreis entsprechend Angebot und Nachfrage festsetzen, die sogenannte `Cabal`.

Interessant ist die "Member`s list".

Wenn jemand groessere Mengen Gold kaufen oder verkaufen will, bekommt er von den Mitgliedern entsprechend dem Verzeichnis wahrscheinlich die besten An- bzw. Verkaufspreise.

Wichtig ist, sich einen Preis zu fixieren lassen!

Wenn man zum Beispiel bei der Dresdner heute fuer 302Euro die Unze kauft und die Auslieferung Montag ist, muss man dann den Montag-preis bezahlen, der durchaus auch vom heutigen Kurs abweichen kann(Es koennte zum Beispiel sein, dass man dann nur noch 299 Euro bezahlen muss )

Die LBBW und die Deutsche fixen den Preis bei Vorauszahlung.

Gleiches gilt fuer den Verkauf.

Wenn man etwas fuer sein Geld in der Hand haben will, kann man sich ueberlegen, den ein oder anderen Barren einzulagern.

Wenn man sich nicht zum Beispiel ein paar Solarzellen aufs Dach schnallen will, wofuer es dieses Jahr noch Minimalzinsen und Einspeisegesetzverguetung gibt. Beispielsweise.
Oder einen Pool fuern Garten.
Auch nicht schlecht.
Aber ich schweife ab...

[silverpwd]

#6191

Ich habe von Thai noch wenig vernünftige Beiträge hier in diesem Board gelesen. Meist alles Geblubbel.

[mickym [VIP]]

Lasst doch mal jeden so sein, wie er ist. Diese Spitzen auf der pers. Ebene bringen doch nichts.

Das geht hier anscheinend wie bei Ebbe und Flut. Mal ist ein paar Wochen Ruhe und dann gehts wieder von vorne los.

@Wardriver vertritt seine Meinung entweder um zu provozieren oder auch nicht @hpoth regt sich gerne über @wardriver auf etc .....

und ob Du @silverpwd @Thais Beiträge vernünftig findest oder nicht, das war wirklich ein weiteres Posting wert. - Es wurde ja auch fundamental begründet.

Gruss Mic, der dieses Spiel hier langsam durchschaut

[ThaiGuru]

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho, June 26, 2003, Hecla Mining
Company (NYSE:HL) today announced the reassignment and promotion of
personnel to better address the needs of the growing company. Hecla`s
President and Chief Executive Officer, Phillips S. Baker, Jr., said,
"This is an exciting time for Hecla. We believe Hecla`s gold
production can double to a half million ounces per year in five years.
A large part of that growth will come from Venezuelan activities. We
also believe we are well positioned with our underground mining
expertise and balance sheet to acquire properties. This growth means
we need the right people in the right places."
He continued, "I`m very pleased that we have the management and
operational depth at Hecla to handle future growth in all areas:
acquisitions, exploration, development, operations and financial. We
have never had a better portfolio of properties to grow the company,
or a better balance sheet to finance that growth."
Several significant capital projects are close to implementation
in Venezuela, including:

-- development of a shaft to mine the deeper resources at Hecla`s
La Camorra gold mine,

-- development of a custom milling business,

-- continued exploration of Block B, and

-- final feasibility on the development of the Canaima and Block
B resources.

To manage these significant activities, Hecla`s Vice President --
Operations, Thomas F. Fudge, Jr., will also become President of the
Venezuelan companies. Fudge, 48, is a mining engineer with 26 years of
experience in the mining industry. He has been Hecla`s V.P. --
Operations since 2001. Fudge will primarily work from Venezuela.
Meanwhile, Hecla`s current President of Venezuelan activities,
Michael H. Callahan, will begin to shift his primary focus to his
duties as Vice President -- Corporate Development. Callahan, 39, first
started with Hecla in 1989 and has been President of the Venezuelan
operations since 2000.
Ronald W. Clayton, Hecla`s Vice President -- U.S. Operations since
2002, will now be Vice President -- North American Operations, adding
Mexican operations and projects to his list of responsibilities. In
Mexico, Clayton is already focusing his attention on the recently
begun Don Sergio development. Clayton, 44, also a mining engineer,
first joined Hecla in 1987, becoming manager of three different mines.
He was first appointed vice president in 2000, left the company for
two years, and came back to Hecla in 2002. He will now report directly
to Baker.
Lewis E. Walde, Vice President -- Controller has been promoted to
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Walde, 36, has had
increased responsibilities with Hecla over the last eleven years. In
the last two years, he has played a pivotal role in the financial
management of the company.
Baker said, "Hecla`s growth in Venezuela and our exploration
efforts in South America call for added focus on the operations side.
But we also intend to add production growth elsewhere through
acquisitions. Mike Callahan, who has done a fantastic job of leading
our Venezuelan activities, will now be able to concentrate on
potential acquisitions and mergers not only in Venezuela, but
elsewhere. At the same time, Ron Clayton`s increased responsibility
for our activities in Mexico allows Tom Fudge to direct activities in
Venezuela, which is a strategic location for our goal of doubling our
gold production within five years. And Lew Walde can build on the
financial leadership he has shown during Hecla`s turnaround."
Hecla has also hired Donald P. Gray as General Manager of
Technical and Environmental Services at the corporate headquarters in
Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, effective July 1. Gray will be responsible for
expanding the pool of technical capabilities and coordinating
corporate services to the operating properties. Gray will be available
to operate new properties as Hecla grows. Gray, a mining engineer with
an M.S. in Mineral Resource Engineering and Management from MIT,
worked for Hecla from 1983-1985 and again from 1993-2001. Gray, after
a transition period, will report to Baker.
Hecla is a low-cost silver and gold producer, with estimated 2003
production of 9 million ounces of silver at an expected average total
cash cost of about $2.15 per ounce and 215,000 ounces of gold at an
expected average total cash cost of under $150 per ounce. Its
operations are located in the United States, Mexico and Venezuela.
Statements made which are not historical facts, such as
anticipated payments, litigation outcome, production, sales of assets,
exploration results and plans, costs, prices or sales performance are
"forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and involve a number of
risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those projected, anticipated, expected or implied.
These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, metals
price volatility, volatility of metals production, exploration risks
and results, project development risks and ability to raise financing.
Refer to the company`s Form 10-Q and 10-K reports for a more detailed
discussion of factors that may impact expected future results. The
company undertakes no obligation and has no intention of updating
forward-looking statements.


CONTACT: Hecla Mining Company, Coeur d`Alene
Investor and Public Relations:
Jeanne DuPont, 208/769-4177
http://www.hecla-mining.com

[silverpwd]

Ich habe meine Meinung bezüglich Gold desöfteren bereits begründet.
Übrigends können die Goldbullen nur beten, dass Gold nicht nachhaltig durch die 340 rauscht. Ansonsten deklariere ich den Bullenmarkt für Gold auf absehbare Zeit für beendet.

[sterngleiter]

Hallo Thaiguru,

wenn - so wie Du vorgibst - der Goldpreis lfd. durch
"Papiergold" nach unten manipuliert wird, dann müsste
doch spätestens bei vereinbarter Goldlieferung dieses
Papiergold physisch eingedeckt werden und somit einen
Goldpreisanstieg verursachen.
Da dieses Spiel mit dem "Papiergold" angeblich bereits
jahrelang läuft, müsste dies ja unglaublich lange
Goldauslieferungsvereinbarungen bedeuten um die Eindeckung
des Papiergoldes durch physisches Gold zwangsweise zu
realisieren, was ja demnach bis heute noch nicht passiert
ist.(siehe tiefer Goldpreis!!!)
Da mir dies ziemlich unklar ist bitte ich Dich um
entspr. Klärungs-Info bzw. Berichtigung.

Vielen Dank im voraus !!

[Boersenkuh]

Mal ne Frage in die Runde hier! Wie seht ihr auf Sicht den Goldpreis? Überlege jetzt mir einen Goldcall zu holen (Laufzeit 2005)! Oder rutschen wir noch unter 340??

[bluemoons]

Südafrikanisches Minenhaus setzt weiter stark auf Gold – Auch andere Edelmetalle locken den Produzenten


Gold Fields mit neuem Selbstbewusstsein


Von WOLFGANG DRECHSLER


Wenn es noch eines Nachweises bedurft hätte, dass Gold wieder glänzt, wurde er letztes Jahr beim Debüt von Gold Fields an der New York Stock Exchange erbracht: Kein anderer als Nelson Mandela, der erste schwarze Staatspräsident Südafrikas, erschien auf dem Balkon der Börse, um die Notierung des weltweit viertgrößten Goldproduzenten einzuläuten.


KAPSTADT. Mit dem gelungenen Publicity-Gag konnte Gold Fields sogar seinen südafrikanischen Erzrivalen Anglogold ausstechen, der anlässlich seiner Zweitnotierung in New York kurz zuvor einen echten Löwen präsentiert hatte.

Gold Fields hat guten Grund, sich der Welt mit neuem Selbstbewusstsein zu präsentieren: In nur fünf Jahren hat das Unternehmen seinen Marktwert von 7 Mrd. auf 44 Mrd. Rand (4,8 Mrd. €) geschraubt. Vor dem jüngsten Rückschlag des Goldpreises hatte der Börsenwert zeitweise sogar bei fast 80 Mrd. Rand gelegen. Das Unternehmen war damit 2002 der erfolgreichste Titel an der Johannesburger Börse (JSE). Inzwischen macht Gold Fields rund ein Drittel des JSE-Goldindizes aus.

Zwei Gründe haben Gold Fields zu dem Höhenflug verholfen: zum einen die starke Erholung des Goldpreises, zum anderen die Tatsache, dass Gold Fields inzwischen fast kein Gold mehr zu einem festen Preis auf Termin (Hedging) verkauft. Damit profitierte die Gesellschaft ganz unmittelbar vom starken Anstieg des Goldpreises in den letzten beiden Jahren. Geholfen hat lange Zeit auch, dass die Kosten in der Heimatwährung Rand anfallen, während der Konzern die Erlöse in Dollar erhält. Allerdings hat sich dieser Bonus in den letzten Monaten ins Gegenteil verkehrt: Durch das starke Anziehen des Rands und die gleichzeitige Dollarschwäche sind die Gewinnspannen aller südafrikanischen Goldfirmen stark geschrumpft – und mit ihnen der Aktienkurs. Allmählich scheint sich das Pendel mit der leichten Abschwächung des Rands wieder in die andere Richtung zu bewegen.

Die Effizienz und Voraussicht Gold Fields zeigen die Zahlen für das letzte Quartal – es waren die besten aller südafrikanischen Goldförderer. Anglogold und Harmony meldeten Gewinnrückgänge um 43 % bzw. fast 50 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Bei Gold Fields lag der Verlust nur bei 1,5 %. Einen weiteren Coup landete das Unternehmen vor wenigen Tagen, als es 15 % seiner südafrikanischen Minen an die von Schwarzen geführte Investmentgesellschaft Mvelaphanda Resources (Mvela) verkaufte. Damit erfüllt Gold Fields mit einem Schlag einen Gutteil der Auflagen in der vom Staat erlassenen Bergbau-Charta: Danach müssen schwarze Südafrikaner in fünf Jahren zu 15 % an allen Minen des Landes beteiligt sein. Bis 2012 soll dieser Anteil dann auf 26 % steigen. Zuvor hatten Beobachter immer wieder das langsame Tempo moniert, das Gold Fields bei der Heranziehung schwarzer Partner angeschlagen hatte.

Die Frage ist nun, wie Gold Fields sein üppiges Cashpolster anlegen wird. Die Devisenkontrollen am Kap erschweren es, die Mittel für Zukäufe ins Ausland zu transferieren, wo der Konzern Minen in Australien und Ghana betreibt. Das Management um den neuen Chef Ian Cockerill will das Geld deshalb nach eigenen Angaben in die Minen am Kap stecken. Zurzeit ist Gold Fields, das jährlich 4,1 Mill. Unzen Gold fördert, auf dem besten Weg, den Schritt von einer südafrikanischen Goldfirma zum globalen Edelmetall-Produzenten zu vollziehen. Der Schwerpunkt dürfte dabei auch künftig auf Gold liegen, dessen Preis Cockerill weiter steigen sieht. Er ist davon überzeugt, dass Gold auf Dauer vom schwachen Dollar und niedrigen Zinsen profitieren wird, weil immer mehr Anleger nach alternativen Anlagen suchen.


HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 26. Juni 2003, 07:02 Uhr

[Der_Glueckliche]

Das Spiel laeuft doch in allen Derivate-Maerkten so, viel mehr Terminkontrakte als entsprechendes Material ueber den Tisch geht.

Das ist bei Kontrakten ueber meinetwegen Daimleraktien oder Weizen auch nicht anders, es wird die Differenz bar ausgeglichen bzw. die Kontrakte werden teurer oder billiger ver/gekauft, fertig.

Oder glaubst Du, das jemals jemand seine DaimlerCalls in Aktien umwandeln wollte?

Oder dass einer aufgrund seine Weizenputs Weizen liefern musste?

Das war vielleicht vor 20 oder 30 Jahren so.

Beim Gold ist das Missverhaeltnis besonders gross, deswegen ist der Goldmarkt besonders anfaellig fuer hohe Terminpositionen auf einer Seite.

(Ich nehme mal an, Du hast mich und nicht TG gemeint)

Sobald wieder viele Anleger GoldCalls halten, wird Material gegeben und abkassiert.

Das wird sich erst aendern, wenn der Goldbedarf weltweit stark ansteigt oder die Spekulanten weniger Geld zum Verspielen haben.

Weiss jemand die aktuellen COTs?

[silverpwd]

Wenn ich Goldbulle wäre, dann würde ich um 335-340 herum einen Call kaufen, hoffen auf den Rücksetzer an der 200`er Linie, wenns nach oben geht, fein, SL gleich beim Kaufkurs setzen. Ansonsten SL bei 320, falls ausgelöst, würde ich mich um Gold für längere Zeit nicht mehr kümmern.

[ThaiGuru]

Einige Gold Pessimisten wittern anscheinend gerade etwas Morgenluft, und nutzen die Gunst der Stunde, um die Leser und Gold Besitzer im Thread zu verunsichern.

Das machen sie jedes Mal wenn der Goldpreis gerade etwas unter Druck gerät. Bereits seit 2001, als ich im WBoard Gold und Goldaktien als Anlage Instrument empfehle, damals stand Gold noch bei ca. 260.- Dollar pro Unze, war das immer so.

Trotzdem ist Gold immer weiter gestiegen, wenn auch unterbrochen von mehreren zeitlich begrenzten Preis Rückschlägen. Gold wird auch diesmal wieder ansteigen, und bietet uns Gold Bugs, und allen weitsichtigen, sicherheitsorientierten Anlegern die Chance sich mit sehr günstigem physischem Gold einzudecken. Gold kostet gerade, in Euro, oder Franken gerechnet weniger, als noch vor 2 Jahren, obwohl der Goldpreis in Dollar gerechnet seit damals von ca. 260.- Dollar, zum heutigen Tag, um über 30% gestiegen ist.

Bis heute hat sich anscheinend nichts am Verhalten dieser "Auserwählten" geändert, ausser vielleicht, dass einige alte User, heute unter neuer User ID weiter Schmäh posten.

Diesen Gold Pessimisten, kann ich nur empfehlen, doch einen eigenen Thread zu eröffnen, und ihre Eigenen Argumente darzulegen, nach denen sie vorgeben zu handeln, und von denen sie so überzeugt zu sein scheinen, und sich an ihren Aussagen zur zukünftigen Entwicklung des Goldgeschehen auch messen zu lassen.

Aber dazu sind sie wohl nicht in der Lage?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">PS: Die Tatsache, dass zwei notorische Gold Pessimisten wie "silverpwd" und "wardriver" diesen Thread mit seinen nichtsaussagenden Postings von mir, wie der eine von beiden heute schreibt, so extrem häufig besuchen, ist ja schon mehr als bemerkenswert, wenn auch nicht sehr logisch.

[silverpwd]

GOLD IST NICH GESTIEGEN !

Das bisher einzige Grund für diesen für Europäer SCHEINBAREN Goldansteig , ist der Verfall der Währung in der Gold bezahlt wird.

DER REST IST GRÖBSTES GEBLUBBEL , DAS MIT FETTSCHRIFT AUCH NICHT WAHRER WIRD.

[silverpwd]

Ach ja, der Grund warum ich diesen Thread unter anderem verfolge ist, dass ich die allgemine Gold-Szene verfolge , denn ich will Geld verdienen und mir ist es im Prinzip scheissegal mit was. Gold, Aktien, Kekse, ich zocke mit allem in alle Richtungen.
Ich suche immer noch Gründe für einen eventuellen zukünftigen Anstieg für Gold, was mir aber bisher verwehrt geblieben ist.
Beim Lesen rege ich mich aber leider manchmal auf über Blödsinn, der hie und da verzapft wird und das verleitet mich zu solchen Postings.

[ThaiGuru]

@Sterngleiter

Könnte man eigentlich annehmen, dem ist aber leider nicht so.

Die Verkäufer von Goldkontrakten müssen überhaupt nie Gold liefern, solange die Gegenpartei nicht darauf besteht.
Die können auch unter viel besseren Konditionen, sprich weniger Kapitaldeckung als die Papier Gold Käufer, Papier Gold verkaufen. Falls eine Rückendeckung der FED besteht, können diese Verkäufer theorethisch unbegrenzt Papiergold verkaufen, solange bis der Goldpreis auf dem Nivau steht, wo die Goldbullion Banken ihn sehen wollen.

Nein Sterngleiter, solage die Käufer dieser Gold Futures Kontrakte nicht auf Goldlieferung bestehen, müssen die Verkäufer überhaupt nie physisches Gold liefern, sondern allenfalls Bargeldausgleich leisten. Die Laufzeiten dieser Kontrakte sind auch nicht sehr lange, dauern nur Monate, und Kursgewinne, oder Verluste, werden in der Regel durch Papiergeld *Fiat Money* abgegolten. Kontrakte die ablaufen können in der Praxis auch gegen Zahlung von *Fiat Money* verlängert werden.

Probleme durch tiefere Goldpreise entstehen den Goldpreis Manipulateuren nur, falls sie physisch liefern müssen. Dann muss das Cabal Gold kaufen, oder Gold bei Zentralbanken, oder anderwo ausleihen. Es sieht im Moment aber immer mehr danach aus, dass die Zentralbanken bald kein Gold zum Ausleihen verfügbar haben, falls man die Studie von Howe/Bolser als Grundlage nimmt.
Es wird für das Gold Cabal immer schwieriger die benötigten Mengen an physischem Gold zu organisieren.

Der Hauptgrund für die Probleme des Gold Cabals, ist aber die Tatsache, dass immer gerade dann massive zusätzliche Nachfrage nach physischem Gold eintritt, vor allem aus Indien, Japan, Arabien, etc., wenn die Goldpreise zu tief gedrückt wurden. Da bereits jetzt schon seit über 10 Jahren ein Gold Produktionsdefizit besteht, ist es darum nur eine Frage der Zeit, wenn das Gold Cabal an ihre Grenzen stösst, und eines baldigen Tages nicht mehr genügend physisches Gold aus den alten ZB Quellen zur Verfügung stehen hat.

Zur Zeit steigt auch die physische Nachfrage nach Gold auf Grund der wirtschaftlichen Unsicherheiten, und wegen der Situation in den USA von realen Negativzinsen (Zinserträge minus Inflation) stetig an. Auch haben einige Zentralbanken wie die von China, Russland, Malaysia, und div. arabischen ZBs etc., angefangen ihre Goldbestände sogar aufzubauen. Mehrere asiatischen ZBs tauschen auch bereits Teile ihrer Dollar Devisen Reserven, neben Euros, auch in Gold um, weil der Dollar als Wertanlage seinen Stellenwert, auf Grund des riesigen US Handelsbilanzdefizites (Schulden im Ausland), dem Haushaltdefizit im Inland, und der seit Bush im Amt ist stattfindenden unverantwortlich hohen Ausweitung der US Dollar Geldmenge, zur Deflationsbekämpfung der FED, langsam aber sicher verlieren wird.

Aus diesen Gründen würde ich mir als Gold Besitzer überhaupt keine Sorgen machen, auch wenn der Preis jetzt gerade wieder einmal mehr vorübergehend nachgegebn hat.
Eher würde ich Dir empfehlen die Zeit zu nutzen, um Deinen finanziellen Umständen entsprechend, günstig weiteres physisches Gold nachzukaufen!

Der Goldpreis wird schon sehr bald aus fundamentalen Gründen wieder ansteigen, auch wenn einige User, aus welchen echten, oder unechten Gründen auch immer, gerade wieder im Gold Board nicht müde werden Dich, und die andern Leser zu verunsichern, und mangels Kentnisse der wirklichen Sachlage beim Goldgeschehen, das Gegenteil zu behaupten!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[hpoth]

@TaihGuru
Guten Abend stimme Dir vollkommen zu, immer das gleiche Muster und die nichts sagenden Argumente von wd ect.grußhpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Wir müssen wohl mit diesen Herrschaften leben!

Diese dürften jedoch schon sehr bald wieder eine ruhigere Kugel schieben, und sich vielleicht ab ca. 370.- Dollar pro Unze Gold einen neuen User Namen zulegen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

2:37p ET Thursday, June 26, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thanks to Gary North for his permission to share with
you Issue 5 of his series of essays, "The Gold Wars."
Issue 5, appended here -- "Is America`s Gold Gone?"
-- quotes GATA consultant James Turk and GATA
Chairman Bill Murphy.

Subscription to North`s "Gold Wars" essays is free. Just
send an e-mail request to:

[e-mail]

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *


Gary North`s
THE GOLD WARS
Issue 5

IS AMERICA`S GOLD GONE?

I sent this report to Remnant Review subscribers in
February 2002. I want to share it with you, even though
the gold market has long since confirmed what I wrote then.
I want you to understand why I believed that gold had
bottomed in 2001, and what the forces are that will push
gold`s price higher. I still believe it.

Pay close attention to my discussion of James Turk`s
reports. Turk believes that the U.S. government has
quietly leased out all of its gold. If he is correct, then
the government cannot get it back. Gold`s borrowers have
paid about 1% per year to borrow the gold. Then they sold
it, pushing gold`s price down. Then they took the money
and invested it at market rates -- over 7% when the leasing
process accelerated sometime around 1997. It was a sweet
deal until gold`s price started upward. Now it threatens
to bankrupt the so-called gold-bullion banks.

If Turk is correct, the banks that are in debt in gold
bullion cannot buy it back to repay their debts. If they
try, gold`s price will soar.

I warn you, this information is arcane material. The
average Congressman knows nothing about it, let alone the
average voter. But gold investors should be aware of these
issues.

I begin with an article written by two economists, one
of whom worked at the time for the Federal Reserve System.
It was published in 1997. You can read it here:

http://www.econ.lsa.umich.edu/~ssalant/hhh.pdf

The authors wrote that if every central bank sold all
of its gold in one gigantic auction, the price of gold
would decline by about 11%. The price in 1997 was $350. A
gigantic, one-shot auction by central banks would drop the
price to "about $309" (p. 3). (Only academic economists
would be as specific as $309.)

Here is part of what I wrote in 2002. . . .

* * * * * * *

What if the United States were to sell all of its gold
in one shot? What price effect would this have? Gold
would fall by $10 an ounce, the report says.

Up to this point, we have considered actions that
might be taken by all governments acting
together. Of course, one government may sell
even if others do not. As shown in Chart 6, if
the United States sells all its gold but other
governments do not, the price is estimated to
drop only to about $340 [down from $350 -- G.N.].
U.S. receipts are about $89 billion, about 10
percent higher than if all governments sold. A
credible announcement by other governments that
they intend to sell gold soon has almost the same
effect as an immediate sale (p. 5).

Now, I`m not sure they were correct in 1997. No one
can be sure. I think such a sale would have dropped the
price by more than $10. But this is what the document
says.

The report`s paragraph ends: "Thus, the U.S. example
illustrates the consideration that each government makes
more revenue if it sells before other governments either
sell or announce a sale." This insight surely isn`t going
to win its authors a Nobel Prize. Of course it`s better to
sell before others do. But this assumes that central
bankers will take the authors` advice and sell all of their
gold at one time, which is what the authors recommend. The
paper calls for coordinated selling. But they offer a
fall-back position: leasing. I will return to this theme
later in this report.

In the paper, there is a chart of the distribution of
gold, government vs. private. The chart counts the
estimated gold in mines, which seems strange. Gold in the
ground affects today`s price only indirectly, insofar as it
suggests possible increases in supply over the years. If
you wanted delivery of gold today, gold in the ground would
do you no good.

A lot of gold is flowing into Asia. India`s fathers
endow their daughters with gold jewelry before a marriage.
This is the property that they bring into the marriage.
This is an old tradition. It will not change soon.
Meanwhile, Indians are getting steadily richer. They can
buy more gold. Dowry gold rarely comes back onto the
market except during economic crises, such as famines.
India is steadily becoming a free market society, and
famines are rare in free market societies. Japanese
investors have begun to buy. There are indications that
the central bank of China is buying more gold than
previously estimated.

This means that if there were a rising price of gold
because of fears about inflation or, far more interesting,
realization that the central banks have quietly leased out
most of their gold and cannot sell any more to keep down
its price, then Indian wives are unlikely candidates to
supply gold in a panic move upward. At some price, yes,
but would be a very high price.

GOLD LEASING

There is a very interesting section on gold leasing.
The authors regard leasing is a viable alternative to
actual gold sales. I believe that their advice here has
been taken. I think it began over a year before the essay
was published. There has been no formal announcement of
this change in policy. There are other indications that
central bankers have used gold leasing as a way to keep the
price of gold declining. The authors argue:

Governments can achieve a welfare gain roughly
equal to that from an immediate sale through
alternative policies. One such policy is
specified in the bottom panel of Chart 5. Under
this alternative policy, governments loan out all
their remaining gold in each period. In the
future when all gold now owned by private agents,
whether above or below ground, has been used up,
governments sell in every period whatever gold is
necessary to make the price be what it would have
been if they had sold all their gold immediately.
The quantities of gold available for private uses
are the same under the alternative policy as with
an immediate sale. However, there is an
important difference: under the alternative
policy, governments relinquish title to their
gold in the future and then only gradually.
Therefore, to the extent that government uses can
be satisfied by owning gold but not physically
possessing it, most if not all of the gains
associated with maximizing welfare from private
uses can be obtained with little or no reduction
in welfare from government uses until sometime in
the future (p. 5).

Here we have the key that may unlock the question,
"Why did gold fall from $350 to $280 in 1997?" Analysts
have looked for the answer in central bank sales. Only
Great Britain and Switzerland have been selling much gold.
Great Britain next month will conclude three years of
auctions of 365 tonnes, half of its gold reserves. In
September, 1999, there was a 5-year agreement by central
banks that they will not sell more than 400 tonnes a year,
combined. The IMF agreed to this. But this agreement did
not include leasing.

In a follow-up paper, the authors explained their
recommendation.

Government Gold Be Put to Better Use?" p. 2.
Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, June,
1997. International Finance Discussion Papers
#582. The italics are in the original document." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Governments can make gold available for
private uses through a class of policies
involving equivalent combinations of gold sales
and gold loans. A gold loan involves receiving
gold today and returning the same amount of gold
and a loan fee at some future date. For
simplicity, we focus most of our attention on the
case of a sale of all government gold. A policy
that is equivalent to a sale of all government
gold in a given period is a commitment in that
period to lend out at the beginning of every
future period all remaining government gold and
to sell at the end of every period after some
date in the future whatever amount is required to
satisfy the demands of depletion users at the
price that would have prevailed in that period if
all government gold had been sold in the given
period. If government uses of gold require
ownership but not storage, any loss in welfare
from government uses resulting from making
government gold available for private uses would
be much smaller under the policy involving
lending and gradual sales in the future. ("Can
Government Gold Be Put to Better Use?" p. 2.
Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, June,
1997. International Finance Discussion Papers
#582. The italics are in the original document.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1997/582/ifdp582.pdf

Why would a government want ownership, but not
storage? They did not explain. They did not have to. By
retaining legal ownership, governments and central banks
are not required to report the physical depletion of their
gold reserves. Elected politicians are unaware of the
physical transfer of their nations` gold into the private
sector -- such as India -- and would-be speculators who are
ready to buy gold as an inflation hedge remain fearful that
the central banks will sell all of that gold, forcing down
gold`s price.

TURK`S REPORTS

In a pair of newsletter reports last year [2001],
James turk has followed certain shifts in definition by the
U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve System regarding U.S.
gold reserves. The old term used to be "gold stock." The
portion of the gold stock at West Point was re-named
"custodial gold" in September, 2000. In June, 2001, this
gold was re-named again: "deep storage gold." Turk
presents a detailed report on the decline of SDR [Special
Drawing Rights] Certificates in the Exchange Stabilization
Fund, a fund used by the United States to stabilize the
exchange value of the dollar. The decline was from 9.2
billion (Dec. 1998) to 2.2 billion (Dec. 2000).
(Freemarket Gold & Money Report, July 23 and August 13
issues. www.fgmr.com.) The SDR is defined in terms of
gold: 35 SDR`s = one ounce of gold. So, 9.2 billion =
262.9 million ounces. There are now 2.2 billion SDR
Certificates remaining in the ESF, or 62.9 million ounces.
The difference is 200 million ounces.

A summary is available on-line, posted by the Gold
Anti-Trust Action Committee. It shows the decline in the
SDR Certificates. I offer extracts from the full report,
which you should read in its entirely.

Murphy says. "It appears that the SDR
certificates are being used by the ESF to hide
its gold transactions from the American public."

GATA has long claimed that central bank gold
loans are two to three times the commonly
accepted 5,000 tonnes cited by the gold industry.
"Eighty-seven percent of the U.S. gold reserves
is very close to 7,000 tonnes, which would
increase to 12,000 tonnes the official sector
gold out on loan in some way," Murphy notes." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "Everything is fitting into place," [GATA`s Bill]
Murphy says. "It appears that the SDR
certificates are being used by the ESF to hide
its gold transactions from the American public."

GATA has long claimed that central bank gold
loans are two to three times the commonly
accepted 5,000 tonnes cited by the gold industry.
"Eighty-seven percent of the U.S. gold reserves
is very close to 7,000 tonnes, which would
increase to 12,000 tonnes the official sector
gold out on loan in some way," Murphy notes.

Rubin and Lawrence Summers and current Secretary
Paul O`Neill have refused to directly answer
members of Congress regarding their gold market
queries," Murphy goes on. "The ESF reports only
to the president of the United States and the
treasury secretary, which means that these men
are very aware of the mechanics of manipulating
the gold price." . . . ." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"No wonder former Treasury Secretaries Robert
Rubin and Lawrence Summers and current Secretary
Paul O`Neill have refused to directly answer
members of Congress regarding their gold market
queries," Murphy goes on. "The ESF reports only
to the president of the United States and the
treasury secretary, which means that these men
are very aware of the mechanics of manipulating
the gold price." . . . .

Reserve" to "Custodial Gold." In May this year
all 7,700 tonnes of the U.S. gold reserves in
Treasury Department depositories were
reclassified as "Deep Storage Gold."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Then in an August 7, 2001, letter, John P
Mitchell, deputy director of the U.S. Mint,
offers no explanation why 1,700 tonnes of U.S.
Gold Reserves stored at West Point, N.Y., were
reclassified in September 2000 from "Gold Bullion
Reserve" to "Custodial Gold." In May this year
all 7,700 tonnes of the U.S. gold reserves in
Treasury Department depositories were
reclassified as "Deep Storage Gold."

reclassified -- it was renamed to better conform
to our audited financial statements."

"But Mitchell offers no explanation why that
change is being made now. Could it be that these
changes to conform to accounting principles were
necessary because of the dramatic reduction in
SDR Certificates and encumbering of the U.S. Gold
Reserve?" Murphy asked.

"This is most frightening," Murphy says. The U.S.
Government defaulted on its gold obligations in
1933 and 1971. Could it be happening all over
again? " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Mitchell says the U.S. Gold Reserve was "not
reclassified -- it was renamed to better conform
to our audited financial statements."

"But Mitchell offers no explanation why that
change is being made now. Could it be that these
changes to conform to accounting principles were
necessary because of the dramatic reduction in
SDR Certificates and encumbering of the U.S. Gold
Reserve?" Murphy asked.

"This is most frightening," Murphy says. The U.S.
Government defaulted on its gold obligations in
1933 and 1971. Could it be happening all over
again?

http://www.gata.org/gold_reserves.html

I asked Turk a series of questions by e-mail. His
replies are quite revealing. My questions related to the
means by which the leasing operations have taken place.

North: That the U.S. may be making available
gold to the Bundesbank is conceivable, but to
what purpose?

Turk: The ESF needs gold in Europe for lending to
bullion banks. There is no bullion lending in
the States. So the ESF lends the Bundesbank gold
which is stored in Frankfurt, Zurich, London etc.
In return, the Bundesbank gets the US gold in
West Point.

North: Is the bulk of gold leasing conducted through
the Bundesbank?

Turk: The ESF lends the gold to JP Morgan Chase,
Citibank and Deutschebank of course.

North: The price of gold can only be forced down
by the sale or lease of gold, or the threat of a
sale. There has to be an outlet into the private
market. Is there any monitoring of such
purchases?

Turk: Yes, Frank Veneroso is one of the leading
gold analysts with great central bank
connections. He believes that upwards toward
15,000 tonnes has been loaned by central banks,
much more than the estimates by Gold Fields
Mineral Services. The reason is that GFMS, as I
understand it from Veneroso, largely ignores the
borrowing by commercial banks to fund their own
portfolios, i.e., the so-called carry-trade.
GFMS only looks at hedging.

My guess is that it is being leased, so that
there is no evidence of reduced central bank
inventories. Still, someone has to be selling
gold into the market if downward price pressure
is to be maintained. Why wouldn`t this huge
increase in purchases be visible to the public?

According to Veneroso`s statistics, it is. Last
year demand was 1500 tonnes greater than supply.

North: If the IMF is doing it, then what role
does the Bundesbank play?

Turk: Pawn, for the US banking interests, which
they manipulate through the IMF.

It gets even more interesting. In his July 23 report,
he wrote: "The US Reserve Assets report now excludes all
reference to the ESF, and previous reports already
published have been changed. Not only were the figures
adjusted, but all references to the ESF have been
eliminated." This policy began in February, 2001. Turk
had blown the whistle in his December, 2000 report. "I
guess the January 2001 report was already being prepared
when my December article appeared, so it was too late to
change that report." Here is the famous bottom line: "The
ESF has been erased out of the US Reserve Assets report as
if it had never previously existed." The ESF was created
in 1934, the year that Roosevelt raised by 75% the price of
the gold that the government had confiscated from Americans
in 1933.

THE IMF

GATA has now revealed evidence that the IMF is doing
exactly what that 1997 Fed report recommended. The IMF has
unofficially changed the rules. It now allows central
banks to keep leased-out gold on their books as actual
reserves.

In October 1999 the IMF held a meeting for its
member countries in Santiago, Chile, only a
couple of weeks after a lightening $84 run-up in
the price of gold. GATA`s Mike Bolser found the
IMF manual distributed to the attendees, which
explains how member central banks are to account
for something called gold swaps -- gold that
leaves the vaults of the central banks. In
effect, Bolser came across the IMF`s gold "play
book."

As you will learn shortly, it appears the gold
swap issue is at the heart of the manipulation of
the gold price.

Bolser`s discovery led GATA`s Andrew Hepburn to
query the IMF with the following:

Why does the IMF insist that members record
swapped gold as an asset when a legal change in
ownership has occurred?

The IMF answered:

recommends that swapped gold be
excluded from reserve assets. (see Data
Template on International Reserves and
Foreign Currency Liquidity, Operational
Guidelines, para. 72,"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"This is not correct: the IMF in fact
recommends that swapped gold be
excluded from reserve assets. (see Data
Template on International Reserves and
Foreign Currency Liquidity, Operational
Guidelines, para. 72,"

Over the years the GATA camp has received nothing
but denials from the U.S. Treasury, Alan
Greenspan, BIS, bullion banks and the IMF. In
essence, their responses have been well-couched,
disingenuous and difficult to disprove. THIS
response was NOT because of the sleuthing of
Canada`s Hepburn. Their constant lying finally
caught up with them. The central bank of the
Philippines responded to Hepburn as follows:

with the requirements of the IMF`s
reserves and foreign currency liquidity
template under the Special Data
Dissemination Standard (SDDS), gold
swaps undertaken by the BSP with
non-central banks shall be treated as
collateralized loan. Thus, gold under
the swap arrangement remains to be part
of reserves and a liability is deemed
incurred corresponding to the proceeds
of the swap."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "Beginning January 2000, in compliance
with the requirements of the IMF`s
reserves and foreign currency liquidity
template under the Special Data
Dissemination Standard (SDDS), gold
swaps undertaken by the BSP with
non-central banks shall be treated as
collateralized loan. Thus, gold under
the swap arrangement remains to be part
of reserves and a liability is deemed
incurred corresponding to the proceeds
of the swap."

In other words, the IMF instructed the central
banks that even though the gold was gone, it
should still be counted as part of their
reserves. The central banks of Portugal, Finland
and the ECB itself all confirmed the Philippine`s
response to Hepburn.

The GATA camp caught the IMF flagrantly deceiving
the public. Since then, the IMF has refused to
answer all follow-up questions from GATA
supporters.

http://www.gata.org/neworleans.html

Central banks seem to have been secretly dumping gold
into the market in order to depress its price. All of this
is guesswork based on obscure statistics and a change in
the IMF`s reporting rules. But it would explain the
failure of gold to hold above $300. I think GATA`s
analysis makes sense.

If this analysis is true, then we are seeing the
greatest irony in the history of fractional reserve
banking. Always before, the banks had taken in gold from
the public, issuing IOU`s to gold in exchange. Then the
banks have loaned out IOU`s to gold that they did not have
in reserve. They drew interest on the loaned IOU`s to
gold. Then the banks defaulted, keeping the public`s gold,
refusing to redeem gold on demand. The governments of the
world accepted this lawless transfer of gold officially to
them, the governments.


OUT THE BACK DOOR

Today, we know that central banks have lent some of
their nations` gold bullion to bullion banks for an
interest payment of 1.3% per annum: the gold-lease rate.
That was in 2002. These days, the rate is about 0.37% per
year. This is posted on

http://www.thebulliondesk.com

Look to the right of "Top Reports." You will see buttons:
"PGMs," "Charts (near)," etc. The eighth button is
"Leases." Click it.

The bullion banks sell the borrowed gold into the
private markets, receive money for it, and invest the money
at the market rate of interest, which is above .37%. The
bullion banks have told the central banks, "we`ll repay,
someday." The question of questions now is this: Can they
ever repay? The gold is long gone. It`s in some Indian
bride`s dowry.

The European central banks stole gold from the public
in 1914 by revoking gold redeemability when World War I
broke out. Now these banks have lent this gold to bullion
banks for 1% per annum. Bullion banks have transferred
ownership of this gold back to the public, paying 1% to the
central banks for the privilege, plus a promise of
repayment Real Soon Now. So, the masters of fractional
reserves, central bankers, have been conned by the public`s
economic agents: the bullion bankers, who got the central
banks to turn over the gold. The bullion banks have now
issued IOU`s to the central banks. They are "borrowed
short": and "lent long." In short, the bullion banks have
done to the central banks what the commercial banks and
central banks did to the public in 1914.

We the people have now got most of our gold back, and
we don`t even know it yet.

what the phrase indicates: we are keeping this gold for the
Bundesbank." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The exception seems to by the Federal reserve. It
looks as though the FED has not leased its gold. But
Turk`s figures indicate that the FED may have swapped its
gold for the Bundesbank`s gold, and then the Bundesbank
sold off 86% of the FED`s gold. This means that the gold
in storage at West Point -- "custodial gold" -- is exactly
what the phrase indicates: we are keeping this gold for the
Bundesbank.

The privately owned bullion banks are short: they have
promised to return the central banks` gold at some future
date. The major gold mines are also short: they have
promised to repay gold out of production at some future
date. In a January 23, 2002, report by John Hathaway, "The
Investment Case for Gold," the author observes:

Forward selling or hedging by gold companies to
"lock in" margins is the antecedent of business
practices adopted by Enron and other entities
that prefer counter party to market risk. The
architects of the gold industry`s lamentable
dalliance with derivatives will engineer grief
well beyond the gold sector. Financial market
exposure to interest rate and foreign exchange
derivatives dwarfs the notional value of gold and
commodity contracts. Gold derivative traders
have laden the books of their host institutions
with the financial equivalent of toxic waste
dumps. The intellectual basis for the existing
gold derivative books, representing at least 5000
tonnes, or two year`s mine production, was a
bearish view of gold and a uniformly bullish view
of the dollar.

What happens to the price of gold when gold investors
finally realize that the overhang of central bank gold is
not there?

They may not recognize this for several years. But,
at some point -- I believe within the next three years --
the central banks will cease selling gold every time its
price rises above $300. [This turned out to be true -- so
far (Canada excepted, which is almost out of gold) -- last
year, when I was writing this report.] Their actual
physical reserves are too depleted. If investors perceive
that this is the central banks` new policy, gold will jump
way above $300. At that point, the bullion banks, which
are short, will be caught in a monumental squeeze. They
will not be able to cover by buying gold futures, because
the physical gold is not available for delivery. This will
leave them exposed to bankruptcy, and it will leave shorts
on the futures market trapped.

What would happen on the gold futures market when
everyone knows that there is not enough gold for delivery?
Lock limit up. Lock limit up. Lock limit up. The gold
futures market will not be where the gold shorts will want
to be. Or anywhere else, for that matter.

If China starts selling dollars and taking delivery of
gold, then there will be a crisis in the gold futures
markets on the scale of January, 1980. This policy would
be consistent with China`s goal to become the dominant
economic nation in Asia, replacing Japan.


CONCLUSION

If price deflation really is coming, despite monetary
inflation, gold could fall. But I think today`s monetary
inflation will secure the U.S. economy against a price-
deflationary scenario.

The other major negative factor, another series of
unexpected gold sales by central banks, is increasingly
unlikely. They are running out of gold, despite the
official statistics on their unchanging official reserves.
They can sell gold reserves again, but at some point, the
game must end. We are closer to the end than five years
ago, when the gold-leasing strategy was adopted.

-END-

[Magor]

Hallo Thai!
Deinen Kampf gegen die Windmühlenflügel Wardriver und Co. noch nicht leid?
Nerven hast Du, muß man Dir ja lassen!

Deine Erläuterungen an Sterngleiter betonen schon die Wichtigkeit vom Besitz von Gold und Silber in physischer Form anstatt in Papier.
"Der_Glueckliche" sein Einwand unter #6200, Derivate brauchten doch nicht erfüllt zu werden, sie dienen ja nur als Spekulationsobjekt, bedarf m.E. allerdings einer Richtigstellung.
Zitat:
Oder glaubst Du, dass jemals jemand seine Daimler Calls in Aktien umwandeln wollte?
Oder dass einer aufgrund seine Weizenputs Weizen liefern musste?
Das war vielleicht vor 20 oder 30 Jahren so.

Solange Gold, Silber, Platin als ein mit Aktien gleichwertiges, mal mehr oder minder chancenreiches Anlagemedium betrachtet wird, zu ruhigen Zeiten, da mag man vielleicht richtig liegen.
Wohlgemerkt: nur zu ruhigen Zeiten!
Zu solchen Zeiten mag man Derivate auch auf Edelmetalle vielleicht nur ausgleichen, die Differenz auszahlen.

Allerdings, wenn man einige der Edelmetalle als das ansieht, was sie seit Jahrtausenden verkörpern, nämlich als Werterhalt, wofür diese Anlagen einige der etwas über den Alltag hinaus denkenden auch kaufen, nämlich als eine Absicherung für drohend nahe schlechtere Zeiten, dann sieht es schon ganz anders aus!
Dann nämlich, wenn diese Zeiten auch nur näher rücken sollten, dann sitzt man mit den Derivaten, den verbrieften Rechten auf die Metalle genauso dumm da, wie die Versicherungsnehmer der Mannheimer heute!
Dann sitzt man nämlich auf wertlosem Papier!

Die durch den Besitz von physischen Metallen gebotene Sicherheit macht den gewaltigen Unterschied und den wahren Wert dieser Anlagen aus!
Wenn´s nämlich eng wird, und in Krisenzeit der "Anrechte"-Besitzer auf Herausgabe pochen möchte, dann wird es bei dem vielfach überverkauftem tatsächlichen Bestand an vorhandener Ware so, wie wenn einer im vollbesetzten Kino "Feuer" schreit ...
alle wollen zur gleichen Zeit zur einzigen Türe hinaus ... in die Sicherheit ...

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Na ja, ich geb`s zu, ich hab einen Fetisch. Ich spreche gerne gegen Wände!

Dein Beitrag zeugt davon, dass auch Dir etwas daran liegt, dass die Leser und Gold Anleger im WBoard nicht von Wänden überrollt werden.

Danke

ThaiGuru

[bluemoons]

http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1056644106.php

[bluemoons]

http://news.goldseek.com/NedSchmidt/1056641273.php

[ThaiGuru]

June 26 - Gold $343.60 down $5.30 - Silver $4.52 down 4 cents

In the hour of adversity be not without hope / For crystal rain falls from black clouds.
Persian Poem

Gold And Bonds Belted / Gold Shares Remain Resilient

It is interesting to note various comments about the markets. Some are very prescient, some don’t make much sense. What are the comments these days about the bond and gold markets? What is their price action telling us? Regard the charts:

30-year bond
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

Bonds were trampled to 117`03, down 1`24 – a complete technical breakdown of the neckline of a head and shoulder formation.

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Both topped out after forming a sideways pattern and now both are going straight down. Are the bonds telling us the Fed’s liquefying of the US financial system will produce inflation down the road? Is that what trader’s sense, so they are bailing?

Which leads us to gold. If inflationary forces are picking up steam, why then is gold going straight down? Is the tanking gold market telling us deflationary forces are kicking in? We have a contradiction here.

Each to their own commentary. As far as I am concerned, the only thing the sinking gold market is telling us is the market is rigged – forced down by The Gold Cartel. With the bond market in short-term free-fall, The Working Group on Financial Markets and other Orwellian figures running the US financial markets are petrified of a rising gold price along with a falling bond market. Market commentators would say the higher gold price is confirming the bond fall and inflation is coming into the financial market pipeline.

Why petrified?

*The one real strength in the US economy is the housing sector. If the market players are convinced interest rates are going much higher, more of them WILL sell and send them higher. Much higher rates could deal a serious blow to the real estate boom.

*Who knows what kind of derivatives bombs could go off if gold rises sharply with bonds collapsing? Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae have enough problems already. We don’t know what may REALLY be going on behind the scenes derivatives-wise in these GSE’s and in other derivatives-laden firms.

*Who knows what could happen to the $23 trillion+ interest rate derivatives position at the US government’s principal bank, JP Morgan Chase?

The physical gold market is very firm and gold producers are covering hedges. So why is gold going straight south in a hurry? Because The Gold Cartel and financial market managers want it that way. PERIOD! Until they are defeated, gold will never be allowed to rally. That is why it is so important that GATA be right about the gold loan/swap numbers. For if the establishment is right (which they aren’t), gold could trade in this area for 5 to 10 years.

In the short-term, the bad guys can always come up with a tranche of gold here and there to take it down. That is until they run out of enough deliverable supply to keep the price down at these levels. The two big rallies this year and the positive gold share action suggest that is becoming more and more the case. They are indications the cabal’s days are numbered. It is becoming harder and harder for them to continue their scheme.

In the meantime patience is required.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, June 26, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.14, PM $6.95, with world gold at $348.10 and $346.30. High: well over legal import point. The less-tested Shanghai Gold Exchange premium also remains very high at $3.93.

TOCOM was not inspired by the Fed rate cut, and the bulk of the weakness in the Euro this morning happened after Tokyo closed. On volume down by 53% from Wednesday at the equivalent of 33,017 Comex lots most contracts rose by 9 yen, but $US gold slipped 90c from the NY close. Open interest did rise notably: by the equivalent of 2,939 Comex contracts, possibly accumulation by the public reflecting the two-month low in the yen gold price.

About the best that can be said for gold right now is that it appears to have anticipated the Fed better than the Euro, which has slipped almost 2% since the Fed’s action. Physical importers and their suppliers will be having a busy time, but until this dawns on NY technically-oriented traders, efforts will continue to be made to break through various levels on the downside. Gold has sustained significant technical damage already, which will likely take several days to repair. Time to go to the beach: next comment Tuesday.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

With the bonds falling fast, the dollar needed a propping. It got one, rallying .85 to 95.40.

The DOW rose 67 to 9079 and the DOG popped 31 to 1634 - a magical levitation which ought to cease after the end of the quarter.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth was more anemic than previously thought in the first quarter, a government report on Thursday said, though there signs of potential improvement ahead in new jobless claims data.

Weighed down by war worries, gross domestic product, or GDP crept ahead at a downwardly revised 1.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter, less than the 1.9 percent pace the Commerce Department estimated a month ago and matching the lethargic rate in the final quarter of 2002…..

Separately, the Labor Department said new applications for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level since March 22, a moderately encouraging sign though the national unemployment rate remains above 6 percent.

A total 404,000 idled workers filed for unemployment insurance payments at state offices in the June 21 week, down 22,000 from a revised 426,000 a week earlier.

"We`ve seen claims come down four out of the last five weeks, which is encouraging," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards and Sons. "The Federal Reserve said yesterday we may be seeing stabilization of labor conditions." -END-

More spin. What they don’t say here is:

*claims above 400,000 is generally regarded as a negative for the economy
*recurring jobless claims increased

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Repurchase Agreement Action: Fed adds $12.5B, Pool drops to $28.75B

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $12.5Billion to the repo pool today and with an $18 Billion expiration today, the new pool total is $28.75Billion. This action wasn`t unexpected as it continues to smoothly roll the repo pool`s 30-day moving average downward.

This action suggests that the Fed isn`t too concerned about taking the DOW down quickly. The cyclical pattern however suggests a three month half cycle which would place the DOW at another low in mid September.

A thoughtful writer asked if there could be reasons other than the extraction of capital gains tax revenue for the Fed`s repo/futures DOW interventions. Upon reflection, one can see from its sheer size that the Fed wants to protect the bond market at all costs thus the Fed would wish the DOW to fall in an effort to push investors from stocks into bonds and to avoid the historical oddity of a rising stock AND bond market. Yesterday`s shaky bond action after the "good" news of yet another rate cut can`t be reassuring to the Fed. Another reason for the Fed to intervene in the DOW is pure reward to the primary dealers for their cooperation in the Fed`s numerous market interventional forays. By getting a clear advance warning the dealers can front run the rising or falling DOW with either index put or call options in large volume.

By the way, the primary dealers could, if they wished, to act counter to the Fed`s desires. Since the Fed chooses the dealers such a conflict between the Fed and its primary dealers would be quickly rectified. For example, a dealer who bought gold stocks, or worse, gold futures, would not be a primary dealer for long.
Mike

From Investor’s Intelligence:

The TIR Composite is a daily indicator made up from an unweighted compilation of the most recent chart action among 29 indices and indicators. It makes fast swings from overbought levels above 68%, or oversold below 32%. Action reached a recent peak at 92% June 4, the highest level recorded in the 24 year history of this indicator. -END-

Is the glass half full or half empty?

Hi Bill -

I am really getting despondent over this market manipulation. The government, as a principal player, has always been my fear. If requests for delivery can be satisfied by cash, and their are no constraints on creating cash, what is going to cause an end to this folly?

I have hung in there with your logic (makes sense to me too) for these 4 years but I am beginning to think that there is no end to this liquidity generation - short of total collapse of the financial system. Then, of course, bullion holders will be king of the hill but I am not so sure about shareholders.

Is there really any hope or are we kidding ourselves?

Best regards as always,

Fred

It is only natural to be disgusted and a bit tired about the blatant manipulation of the gold price – a rig job that keeps taking money out of your pocket. And it is only natural to be furious about the billions of dollars The Gold Cartel has made over the years stealing your money, in violation of US anti-trust laws. They have made a mockery of our free market system and hurt many people in the process.

That said, we are gradually winning. They are losing. In the process we are making a lot of money. Gold has rallied 40% the past couple of years. During that time, many of the senior gold shares are up 100 to 200%. Many of the junior/exploration companies have risen 500% and more off their lows. I remember picking up some Golden Star Resources at 45 cents US ($2.52 today) and some Samex at 3 cents US (25 cents today). Now, those were discouraging days. The smaller gold companies were given up for dead back then.

Compare our last couple of years to those in the general stock market where investors have been taken to the cleaners. While the stock market has virtually gone straight up since March, even the Wall Street bulls are only talking about another 10% in the year coming. We can make that in a day in our junior gold shares.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The gold fundamentals are a "10+", while the health of the US economy is a "1." Yet, stock market sentiment is registering the most bullish numbers in 16 years. That combo bodes poorly for the market in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the gold fundamentals keep getting better and better.

I could go on and on. I think you get the picture. While the past week has been very aggravating, the glass IS half full. Gold is going to $800/$1,000 as the crooks lose control of the gold price. These sell-offs are brutal, but don’t and won’t last. That’s what the action of the gold shares is telling us.

With gold down over $5, the XAU stayed flat at 77.19, up .02. The HUI only fell .91 to 146.26. Bellwether Newmont closed up 2 cents to $32.21, still in breakout territory. The gold shares are acting as well now as they acted poorly last year. It won’t be long before the HUI and the rest of the gold shares are ROARING once again!

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

@bluemoons

Posting #6212

Ned Schmidt sagte in seinem THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Gold is on the way to over $1,200, and you should be participating!"

Kann ich nur unterstreichen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[sterngleiter]

Hallo Thaiguru u. Gleichwertige,

Zunächst möchte ich mich für die außerordentlich aus-
führlichen Infos bzgl. meiner Anfrage auf das herzlichste
Bedanken!!!

Wenn sich die allg. Goldsituation so verhält wie von euch
dargestellt( woran ich jetzt in keinster Form mehr zweifle)
so ist dies ein geistig-rechtlicher Alptraum.

Da wird vollkommen risikolos - auf vollkommen legale Weise
mit der Rückendeckung der obersten Bankinstitute - eines
der sichersten Volksvermögensbestandteile (Gold) ohne
rechtl. Haftungszwänge spielbankmäßig verzockt!!!!
(da ja offensichtlich keine phys.Rücklieferungspflicht)

Die lachenden "Dritten" sind dann im Extremfall immer die
Grossbanken , u. die breite Masse sprich Bevölkerung die
haftungstragenden Vollidioten (als stolzer Besitzer uner-
messlichen Falschgeldreichtums).

Spielt man dieses Analysenspiel nüchtern zu Ende, dann
kommt man zwangsläufig an den gesetzgeberischen Urheber-
sprung (Politiker) die sich im Ernstfall mit der max.
Haftung des Satzes " Ich trage die volle Verantwortung"
in Rente begeben.

Da fällt mir nur noch eines ein:

Tri tra Trullala, war alles schon mal da!!!

[sterngleiter]

Nachtrag zu o.a. Text:

Da die Verantwortlichen der Goldmanipulation sich des
Tages X (Währungszusammenbrüche)sehr wohl bewusst sind,
wird der breiten Masse - anhand der lfd. Goldwertdrückung-
vorgegaukelt, wie angeblich unsinnig und wertlos Gold
- trotz lfd. Verfall der Wirtschaftsaktien - ist.

Nachdem nun die breite Masse das vollkommen wertlose
"gelbe Zeug " panikartik verschleudert, wird dies eifrig
über "Strohinstitutionen " aufgesammelt, damit am Tage X
nur noch die "Creme de la Creme " im Besitze des Edelmetalls ist, und die breite Masse wieder - an der
Kette geführt - von Neuem den Fianztrottel spielen darf.

[silverpwd]

ES GIBT KEINE GOLDMANIPULATION.
DAS IST SCHMARN.

Investiert lieber in Silber, da sehe ich Chancen als Langfristinvestment, aber nicht für Gold, auch wenn Euch die Goldbriefe, die seit 20 Jahren dasselbe schreiben , was anderes erzählen wollen.

[sterngleiter]

Hallo silverpwd,

nicht "das "die Goldbriefe darüber schon jahrelang berichten,
sondern "was " sie qualitativ berichten ist maßgebend.

Ansonsten bin ich der Meinung, das man aus Achtung vor
den anderen Diskusionspartnern - zumindest eine Begrün-
dung seiner Meinung - anzubieten hat, und nicht kommentar-
lose Infos durch die Gegend bolzt.

[Wardriver]

@Thai

Das kannst Du doch nur unterstreichen weil Du 43,8 Fieber hast,Gold fällt,Fieber steigt.

Ein kühles Pils tut not.

Wardriver

[jeffery2]

Oh mann, mit Silber wurden ja hier nun alle plattgemacht. In Euro gerechnet, fürchterlich.
Die grossen Silberoptimisten wurden alle abgestraft und haben das Weite gesucht. Was nicht heissen soll, es könnte mal wieder steigen. Mit 1600 Euro Optionsschein habe ich auch mal kurzfristig etwas "Eintrittsgeld" bezahlt.
Aber wenn etwas seit 20 Jahren knapp ist und trotzdem nicht teurer wird ? Geht das überhaupt ?
Mit Gold haben wir doch schönes Geld verdient, also sprich nicht so schlecht davon
J2

[Magor]

@ Sterngleiter # 6218

Goldwert-Drückung ist nur ein zaghaftes Vorspiel zu versuchen die wahren Werte einsammeln zu können.
Sie wollen schließlich „unser Bestes“ !
Allerdings sind "Sie" nicht unbedingt nur die Politiker, die sind nur Erfüllungsgehilfen der wirklich Mächtigen, die das steuern!
Vielleicht informierst Du Dich ein wenig über die Bilderberg-Konferenzen, um ein Bild davon zu bekommen.

Zwei Sätze vertauscht aus Thai´s # 6208, schon hast Du die Antwort,
warum die Politiker und genannte Interessenten so gelassen sein können:

The ESF was created
in 1934, the year that Roosevelt raised by 75% the price of
the gold that the government had confiscated from Americans
in 1933.

"This is most frightening," Murphy says. The U.S.
Government defaulted on its gold obligations in
1933 and 1971. Could it be happening all over
again?

Das mit dem Abgabezwang und Besitzverbot von Gold bzw. Edelmetall für Privatpersonen war nicht neu in den 30er Jahren des vergangenen Jahrhunderts! Das haben die nicht erfunden! Auch die Nazis hatten alles, was sie einpeitschen konnten zu ihren Schweizer Bankern gekarrt, die in der Neuzeit allerdings durch ihre damalige Buchhaltung nicht durchblicken wollen ...
Auch die Nazionalsozialisten wussten, daß bei Währungsturbulenzen im eigenen Land, benötigte Waren insbesondere für die Rüstung, aus dem Ausland nur gegen Wertbeständiges, d.h. Gold zu bekommen waren!

Was meinst Du warum man hie und da noch verbuddelte Gold und Silberschätze aus alten Zeiten finden kann? Der Plebs wurde immer schon in der Geschichte ausgeraubt, meist nicht von Dieben, nein, von den "Großmogulen", die sich der Landeseigenen Politiker bedienten!

Diejenigen, die wusten, was über Generationen hinweg werterhaltend bleibt, kamen in schlechten Zeiten nicht auf die Idee, weil zeitweilig, aus Manipulations-Gründen, wg. Handelsverbot oder Ähnlichem der „fiktive Kurs“ im Keller war, diese wahren Werte zu verhökern.

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

Bin gerade etwas fremd gegangen!

Nachdem ich den heutigen Beitrag von Bernd Niqet im WBoard gelesen habe, frage ich mich ernsthaft, ob die Menschen, damit meine ich im Besonderen die Anleger, es überhaupt verdient haben in ihren Anlage Entscheidungen erfolgreich zu sein.

Wie naiv, idiotisch wäre vielleicht das passendere Wort, müssen Anleger sein die in ihrer Papiergläubigkeit, und Gier nach Rendite, noch Papier Anleihen einer in diesem Ausmas verschuldeten Firma erwerben, also ihr Vertrauen bekunden, und andererseits physischem Gold als Anlageinstrument überhaupt nichts abgewinnen können.

Auszug:

Von Bernd Niquet
[e-mail]

In dieser Woche hat General Motors (GM) eine neue Anleihe im Volumen von 16,9 Mrd. $ herausgegeben, die blendend im Markt aufgenommen wurde. "Mit dem Mega-Bond", so schreibt die FTD vom Donnerstag, "will GM ein 25,4 Mrd. $ großes Loch in der Pensionskasse stopfen." Abgesehen von der Frage, wie man mit einer 16,9-Mrd-Anleihe ein 25,4-Mrd-Loch stopfen will, bleibt natürlich festzustellen, dass hier einerseits in schier unfassbarer Weise aufgeschuldet wird – und andererseits die Mittel nicht einmal produktiv verwendet werden, um dadurch Zins und Tilgung zu erwirtschaften.

Ob das wohl gut geht? Und ob hier nicht vielleicht der Glauben die Logik außer Kraft gesetzt hat?

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Gerade habe ich in Martin Weiss´ Maiausgabe von "Sicheres Geld" die folgende Passage gefunden – vor Begebung der Anleihe in dieser Woche wohlgemerkt: "General Motors hat über 202 Mrd. $ Schulden – mehr als die Staatsschulden von Kanada, Österreich, Ungarn, Belgien, Holland, Schweiz, die tschechische Republik, Finnland, Norwegen, Irland, Dänemark und vier weitere europäische Länder zusammen. Das ergibt für jeden Dollar Eigenkapital 29,63 $ Schulden."

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…



RIVER GOLD MINES LTD.

TSX SYMBOL: RIV

JUNE 27, 2003 - 13:36 ET

River Gold Mines Ltd.: Private Placement of $2,000,000 In Flow-Through Common Shares

TORONTO, ONTARIO--River Gold Mines Ltd. ("River Gold") today announced the completion of a private placement of 571,429 flow-through common shares of River Gold at an issue price of $3.50 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $2,000,000.

River Gold Mines Ltd. trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "RIV". There are currently 41.3 million shares issued and outstanding.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
River Gold Mines Ltd.
Murray H. Pollitt, P. Eng.
President
[phone]
[phone] (FAX)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…



MERIDIAN GOLD INC.

TSX SYMBOL: MNG
NYSE SYMBOL: MDG

JUNE 27, 2003 - 11:54 ET

Meridian Gold Schedules An Exploration Update

RENO, NEVADA--

(All dollar amounts in U.S. currency)

Meridian Gold will release a mid-year El Penon exploration update on WEDNESDAY, JULY 2, 2003 at 9:00 a.m. ET. Following the release, there will be a conference call, 11:00 a.m. ET. Details of the call-in information will accompany the press release.

Additionally, Meridian Gold and AngloGold have agreed to extend the closing date of the Sales and Purchase Agreement with Queenstake Resources Ltd. from June 25, 2003 to on or before July 1, 2003.

Meridian Gold Inc. is traded on The Toronto Stock Exchange (MNG) and on the New York Stock Exchange (MDG).

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Meridian Gold Inc.
Wayne M. Hubert
Investor Relations
[phone]
[phone] (FAX)
E-mail: [e-mail]
http://www.meridiangold.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.webfin.com/en/news/news.html/?id=35705

Venezuelan Gold Project Looks Promising: Crystallex
Canada (Jun. 27, 2003 - 13:25)

TORONTO (CP) -- A planned Venezuelan gold mine at Las Cristinas looks promising with higher gold reserves than first believed, Crystallex International Corp. (KRY) shareholders were told Thursday at the company`s annual meeting.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Las Cristinas is one of the more promising large gold projects that I have seen for nearly a decade,"

Ken Thomas, Crystallex`s chief operating officer, said at the meeting in Toronto.

President and CEO Marc Oppenheimer told the meeting that the company enjoys "excellent support" from the Venezuelan government and its partner in the proposed mine.

Copies of the remarks by Thomas and Oppenheimer were released in advance.

The Venezuelan project has been stalled for years over legal disputes, financing problems and other delays. However, Crystallex says it is poised to move towards development.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We`re not sitting on our hands, but are driving ahead toward production at Las Cristinas," Oppenheimer told shareholders.

Based on preliminary results, Thomas said, the company believes reserves at Las Cristinas are greater than first estimated.

The total proven and probable gold reserves have increased to 10.1 million ounces from 9.6 million, the company said.

The Toronto-based gold miner has operations in Uruguay and Venezuela.

Earlier this year, Crystallex cut its first-quarter loss to $29,000 despite a revenue decline.

The loss for the quarter ended March 31 amounts to zero cents a share and compares with a loss of $5.6 million or seven cents per share a year earlier.

Shares in the Crystallex traded up three cents to $1.93 on the Toronto stock market.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.blick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=53754

[ThaiGuru]

Devisenhändler zählen den Euro an
Analysten halten jüngste Kursschwäche aber nicht für Trendwende - Anstieg bis 1,40 Dollar noch vorstellbar

von Beatrix Wirth

weiter...

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/28/125707.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/28/125702.html

Beschränkung des Kapitalverkehrs sorgt für hohe Kursverluste an Argentiniens Börse.

von Hildegard Stausberg

Berlin - Gerade hatte man am Finanzplatz Buenos Aires den Besuch von Horst Köhler, dem Chef des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), als ein positives Signal für Argentinien bewertet, da sorgt die Regierung von Präsident Néstor Kirchner schon wieder für einen argen Dämpfer. Sie hat per Dekret Auflagen für ausländische Investoren angeordnet. Diese sind ab nächster Woche verpflichtet, Anlagen am Finanzmarkt für mindestens 180 Tage im Lande zu belassen. Wirtschaftsminister Roberto Lavagna begründete dies mit dem Kampf gegen "Spekulationsgelder", deren Zufluss man "auf jeden Fall" verhindern wolle. Die Reaktion der argentinischen Finanzwelt war eindeutig: Es kam zu einem Kurssturz am Aktienmarkt. Der Merval fiel am Donnerstag um fast sieben Prozent.

Lavagna erklärte, Spekulationsgelder passten nicht zur Wirtschaftsphilosophie der neuen Regierung: "Wir wollen keine Gelder, die hier nur Zinsspekulationen mitnehmen wollen." Seit drei Monaten habe man einen permanenten Zufluss von spekulativem Kapital registriert. Seien es zunächst rund 500 Mio. Dollar monatlich gewesen, so sei der Wert zuletzt auf rund 900 Mio. Dollar angestiegen. Laut Lavanga gibt es ähnliche Auflagen "so gut wie überall auf der Welt". Er machte keine Angaben darüber, wie lange die Beschränkung des Kapitalverkehrs gültig sein soll.

US-Finanzminister John Snow kritisierte unterdessen die Maßnahme:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Ein freier Kapitalverkehr ist unerlässlich für eine gesunde Wirtschaftsentwicklung."

Und auch IWF-Sprecher Thomas Dawson betonte, dass solche Schritte " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"nur in ganz besonderen Fällen" und auf jeden Fall nur für kurze Zeit sinnvoll seien. Anfang Juli werde im Übrigen eine IWF-Delegation das von Köhler vorgeschlagene Drei-Jahres-Abkommen verhandeln.

Im September werden argentinische IWF-Zahlungen über sechs Mrd. Dollar fällig.


Artikel erschienen am 28. Jun 2003

[silverpwd]

Ja, ja , nur der Himmel ist das Limit für den Euro.
Um so mehr Artikel ich darüber lese , um so pessimistischer werde ich für den Euro. Ihr dürft nicht vergessen, dass die Wirtschaft in Euroland MINDESTENS ebenso desolat dahsteht wie in Amiland mit allen begleiteteden Umständen Schulden usw.

@ jeffery2

Bei Silber bestehst ein langes echtes Defizit, die Lager sind leer. Eine reine Silbermine hat Schwierigkeiten bei den Preisen sich am Leben zu halten. Sowas überzeugt mich.
Gold ist noch reichlich in Lagern der Weltbanken vorhanden. Goldminen arbeiten profitabel, d.h die Produktion flutscht. Das Geschreie um Gold ist mir zu viel. Im Übrigen ist Gold auch kein ECHTER WERT , von wegen im Gegensatz zum Papiergeld. Der Preis des Goldes bestimmt die Angebot und Nachfrage und sonst nix, wie bei Keksen und Paiergeld auch. Wenn Gold niemand haben will, dann kann es noch so selten sein, es nichts wert.

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Gold ist noch reichlich in Lagern der Weltbanken vorhanden. Goldminen arbeiten profitabel, d.h die Produktion flutscht"

Hast Du vielleicht zu Deiner Behauptung bezüglich Goldbeständen, und "Flutschender Gold Minen Produktion" auch noch irgend eine Quellenangabe?

Oder entstammt diese Aussage nur Deinem Gehirn, wenn ich es mal grosszügig als solches bezeichnen darf?

Wusste noch gar nicht, dass plötzlich mehrere Weltbanken existieren, bin bis jetzt immer davon ausgegangen, dass es nur eine "Weltbank" gibt.

Falls Du Dich allenfalls in Deiner Silber Euphorie verschrieben hast, jedoch die Zentralbanken gemeint hast, die haben nach http://www.GATA.org viel weniger Gold als Du leider immer noch zu glauben scheinst.
Im weiteren besteht beim Gold genau so wie beim Silber, ein jahrelanges Produktions Defizit.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

June 27 - Gold $344.90 up $1.30 - Silver $4.50 down 2 cents

Gold Is Going To Be THE Go To Investment

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"When we long for life without difficulties, remind us that oaks grow strong in contrary winds and diamonds are made under pressure."Peter Marshall

Aggressive buying by Deutsche Bank led gold back modestly to the upside. Another noticeable buyer was AIG, a silent cabal member, bullion dealer and insurance conglomerate. As cited in this column earlier in the week, The Gold Cartel’s short-term aim was to turn the specs sellers. They accomplished their objective. The open interest fell 6807 contracts on yesterday’s bashing and has fallen to 184,348. More of the specs probably exited today.

Due to the technical damage of the past week, gold will have to do some work in this area before a serious challenge of $370 can be mounted. However, my guess is the downside is limited from here and by July 4th, gold ought to be ready to head higher again. The gold fundamentals don’t get any better than they are now.

While the dollar as been hit hard this year, foreign investors in our long-term bond market were spared real disaster because of the surging bond prices. That has changed dramatically this past week. Bond prices are dive bombing, closing down another half-point today at 116 ’21.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

A tepid rally in the dollar is doing little to spare them from losing what they had made on the price appreciation. If the dollar heads south, it could effect a panic as losses mount.

Then, there is the way overvalued stock market, trading with a P/E ratio of 32 to 36. Historically, that is bubble territory. It appears the bond vigilantes are bursting the bond bubble. If this latest stock bubble bursts, Katie Bar the Door on US financial investments. The Fed’s desperate attempt to bully US financial markets could go down to a nasty defeat.

Where are to investors to turn with money market rates near zero in the US? The obvious answer is GOLD!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (8989, down 90) and the stronger DOG (1625, down 9) sold off mid-afternoon. Somebody got a jump on the selling expected to emerge after the end of the quarter.

Sarge Alert:

Stocks Fall on Talk of Bet Against Stocks

By Rachel Cohen

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell in early afternoon trade on Friday after talk that a large buyer had purchased puts in a bet the Standard & Poor`s 500 will decline further.

"I`m hearing there was a big buyer of Spider puts," said a trader at a major brokerage. "That put some pressure on the market." –END-

It’s interesting. About the same time that news started to spread, this blurb appeared:

1:53PM Floor Talk : Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added another $8 Billion to the repo pool today while the $7.5 expiration resulted in a new pool total of $29.25 Billion.

The DOW is down a few points at noon Friday June 28th.

By direct inspection of the attached chart, you can see that 16 of the last 19 repo pool totals have fallen below the pool`s 30-day moving average . What this means is that the Fed is applying a deliberate downward pressure to the 30 ma repo pool total value which sits at $34.5Billion. They are leading the DOW down smoothly. The DOW will obey its master.

Currencies

One can speculate that the Eastern pole of the multi-polar world has taken a temporary respite from its dollar selling to permit its de facto leader, Vladimir Putin, time to tidy up some UK energy business [Gazprom pipeline] before dollar selling and Euro buying begins in earnest after the holiday week. We can expect the dollar to resume its downward track. BTW the end-of-year regression target for the dollar is 77 and the Euro is 1.28 although these values carry relatively weak R^2 values [Given the wild swings].

With the bond market under clear stress and continued weakness, the future for treasury bonds is down also. Where will the mountains of cash go that come out of the bond market? Into topped equities? Into topped real estate?

Some of it will find the gold shares and the yellow metal. It won`t take much of that to break the gold cartel for good.

Mike



Cafe member Jesse has followed up on Mike`s splendid work with a long range overview of the repo big picture:



Jesse says:

This is hardly a scientific analysis, and I am not certain of the conclusions, but it does seem to show some major policy trends in Fed intervention policy in response to outside events, and other things.

Greenspan made his `irrational exuberance` speech in December 1996, about the time the Fed was increasing its market intervention activity. Seems odd.

*Source of data is the NY Fed and "The Bond Market Association"


Chuck checked in last night:

Bill:

Just noticed that the AAII latest figures was 71% bulls and 10% bears equaling the top at the beginning of 2000 which was the highest since 1987. So this and the Investors Intelligence numbers are similar. My take is that we are seeing the last painting due to the end of a record quarter and perhaps it will extend to the first few days of July. Then if these historic figures are any guide, we should see the bottom drop out.

I believe that gold has weakened due to the rally in the dollar, but the shares are a better predictor of the future since they have less manipulation in them. The interesting point should be what will happen to gold as the market becomes liquidated. Talk to you tomorrow. Chuck

And then again this afternoon:

Bill:

The failure of the market especially at the end of a major window dressing time and the persistent strength in the golds bodes powerfully for next week when the technical forces start to exert themselves. Nice large change in the COTS, also, both in gold AND silver. Puts in gold remained very high again from Wednesday. Still believe that means a blow out in gold.

The day of truth is upon us.

Chuck


Tim Tesluk reports in from Hong Kong:

We’ve got a couple of Chinese gold mining companies coming to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the coming months. The first ever, but probably not the last. It’s a sign of the times. Hopefully a bellwether for rising world gold consciousness. (But of course, the Chinese have known and loved gold for thousands of years. Smart people).
Tim

Today is "Gold Wars" author Ferdi Lips Day at The Café. Last night Chris Powell congratulated two directors of Afrikander Lease, a South African junior gold producer, for their pledging of their personal shares to a bank instead of having to hedge their future production at low gold prices. They did so to secure a loan using the shares as collateral.

JOHANNESBURG – Two executive directors of Afrikander Lease [JSE:AFL], the South African gold junior, have pledged their shares in the company as loan collateral, to avoid having to hedge production.

Aflease today received a three-year, R75 million loan from Nedcor to fund the completion of a new gold plant at its West Rand operations. The loan will be used to fund the completion of the more efficient carbon-in-leach plant and to complete capital projects at its West Rand operations.

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225…

-END-

In that regard, Ferdi sent me this note:

Dear Bill,

Chris Powell might have mentioned that on June 3 three directors, Neal Froneman (CEO), Marais Steyn and Bruce Jones and on June 16 non-executive director Ferdi Lips all bought stock of the company - The Afrikander Lease. I have joined the board this spring and I can tell you it is an excellent board.

Best regards,
Ferdi

As Chris mentioned in his email, Afrikander Lease has been a generous GATA supporter and is surrounded with some of the most talented people in the South African gold world. Mega GATA supporter Peter George (who hails from Cape Town) is one of them. Peter knows the gold market as well as anyone and was instrumental in raising $50,000 over a lunch at Chris Hellinger’s beautiful vineyard/restaurant in Franschhoek, South Africa.

The money, from four South Africans For A Free Gold Market, was for a full-page add in the WSJ of South Africa to expose the manipulation of the gold price. It was very effective as it was published during the middle of a major gold conference in Cape Town.

Another big fan of Aflease is Alf Field , one of South Africa’s most respected gold analysts. I met Alf in London at the London Mining Analyst’s Seminar a year ago May. Alf has written up Aflease several times for The Café. It is a gold company to take a good look at.

Ferdi, who lives in Zurich, Switzerland and is one of the most respected men in the gold industry, came back with another email later:

Dear Bill,

I just sent you an interview I recently gave in the Italian investment magazine "Bluerating" in which I mentioned GATA`s work on page one. You will like it.

Best regards,
Ferdi

PS Today I finished the German translation of "Gold Wars". There is a nice chapter on GATA and 10 pages about the Bundesbank gold.

For Café members that speak Italian:

Betreff: Pubblicazione intervista

Gentile Ferdinand Lips,

la sua intervista è stata pubblicata oggi sul sito di Bluerating.com (www.bluerating.com). Nella home page del sito trova il link all`intervista completa.

L`intervista è anche stata inviata ai nostri utenti (circa 40.000) tramite la newsletter settimanale. Il link alla nostra newsletter è il seguente:

http://www.bluerating.com/nl/mn/270603.htm

La ringrazio nuovamente per la disponibilità e mi auguro che ci possano essere altre occasioni di collaborazione, cordiali saluti

Francesco D`Arco

Redazione
Bluerating.com
Via Melchiorre Gioia 55
20124 Milano

Gold derivatives in the spotlight:

Bill,

Are you aware of the various problems and issues concerning Crystallex (KRY.V)? The reason I`m writing to you about them is because they involve derivatives that went bad, so it could be an object lesson to others in the industry. But there are other aspects as well--the company has a history of dodgy operations. Here is a news story about the derivatives:

Van Sun says Crystallex restates after options botch
2003-04-02 09:23 ET - In the News

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The Vancouver Sun reports in a column by David Baines on Wednesday that more rust has eaten through the otherwise glossy surface of Crystallex. Mr. Baines writes that last week, the junior gold miner restated its financials to include a $14.6-million loss on account of ill-advised call options outstanding as of Sept. 30, resulting in a nine-month loss of $22-million. Why the company did not properly quantify this loss the first time round is a mystery. Even more puzzling is the fact that the company filed these revised statements in the United States, but not in Canada. The company has not issued a press release explaining what happened. Last year, Crystallex wrote a bunch of call options with strike prices ranging from $298 to $310. Unfortunately for the company, the price of gold rose to $323 by Sept. 30, creating a "non-hedge derivative loss" of $14.6-million that was not reported until last week. Since Sept. 30, the situation has gone from bad to worse. During the fourth quarter, gold jumped to $347. In addition, the company on March 11 acknowledged that Venezuela had "repossessed" Las Cristinas, which makes it difficult, if not impossible, for the company to continue to claim ownership.

Van Sun says Crystallex does the old "now you see it"
2003-05-26 07:53 ET - In the News

The Vancouver Sun reports in a column by David Baines on Saturday that Crystallex International has abused public investors in broad daylight, in front of Canadian and United States regulators, with impunity. Last week, the company issued audited financial statements that retroactively reduced the carrying values of various properties, plants and equipment by $36-million. This reversed the $68,000 profit for 2001 to a whopping $36.7-million loss. In other words, shareholders who thought that their company was marginally profitable suddenly learned it was a huge money-loser. Mr. Baines wonders how two chartered accounting firms, Davidson & Co. in the past and Deloitte and Touche today, came up with such radically different financial pictures of the same company. The most controversial aspect of Crystallex`s is still not resolved -- its accounting for Las Cristinas. The Venezuelan government and its supreme court both say Crystallex does not own the property, but Crystallex continues to carry the property on its books at its full cost of $78.8-million. The company has proved itself to be an inept operator, writing a bunch of gold call options that lost the company $17.8-million last year.

--

Robert Ames

From a concerned Café member:

Dear Mr. Murphy:

I am an avid follower of your GATA writings and greatly respect your opinions. I truly believe that our American markets, currency values, gold, etc., are "governed." One thing that has troubled me for the last few years is watching my colleagues, most of whom are financially naive, throw 10% of their earnings blindly into IRA mutual funds. Even when the market was falling dramatically, they will say they are "long term" investors and continue to contribute week after week and continue to do so. Certainly the powers that be understand this is true on a grand scale.

Is it conceivable that our government, using the same conspirators that control gold, could be sweeping these funds into government coffers by downdrafting the stock market every few years as contributions build up? It would be a form of clandestine taxation through manipulation of markets. I am not astute enough technically to understand just how this could be done and thought perhaps you would know if there was any merit to this theory.

It seems that several factors point this way:


5- The stock market rises blindly even on bad news until its time has come to claim its victims.

6- Taxes are cut even with massive deficits and government spending accelerates." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">1- Interest rates are dropped to the point that there is no where to park money except the stock or bond markets.

2- Gold prices are suppressed so as not to alarm the public or offer an investment alternative.

3- Controlled financial media pump stocks endlessly and without conscience.

4- The public does not panic because they are in for the "long haul" and always feel the money will return if they are patient.

5- The stock market rises blindly even on bad news until its time has come to claim its victims.

6- Taxes are cut even with massive deficits and government spending accelerates.

Please comment if possible.

Sure, my comment is that your commentary tells it like is and explains much of what is taking place in US financial land. Point number 2 is right on when it comes to gold. Not much else for me to add. You have said it so well.

The gold shares rose slightly with the HUI up .24 to 146.50 and the XAU up .35 to 77.54.

All systems go in this sector. Clearly, the gold shares are in much stronger hands these days. These strong hands are not prone to dumping them on dips. I suspect on the next big run-up the gold shares are going to be much harder to buy too. The split between bids and offers is going to widen and the move higher is going to be more dramatic. The quality junior/exploration golds are going to fly.

John Crudele, who writes a column for the New York Post, is the best. One of his latest columns is on Richard Grasso, head of the New York Stock Exchange, who made $10 million last year and nominated Sandy Weill to represent the investing public on the Board of Directors of the exchange. Weill’s firm, Citigroup (a bullion-dealing bank), was fined hundreds of millions for bilking the investing public the past five years.

***

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


www.lemetropolecafe.com[/u]

[ThaiGuru]

Greenspan der Alchemist!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=167&sid…

Samstag 28.06.2003, MEZ 17:52

28. Juni 2003 11:57

Credit Suisse rechnet für 2003 mit erneuter Stagnation

ZÜRICH - Die Credit Suisse erwartet für das laufende Jahr ein Nullwachstum der Schweizer Wirtschaft. Zuvor hatte sie noch mit einem leichten Plus des Bruttoinlandprodukts (BIP) von 0,5 Prozent gerechnet.

Die Grossbank korrigiert auch ihre Prognose für das kommende Jahr nach unten. Vor dem zweiten Quartal 2004 werde sich keine nennenswerte Erholung der Wirtschaft einstellen, schreibt die Credit Suisse in einer Publikation ihrer Investmentbank CSFB.

Für das nächste Jahr revidiert sie das erwartete BIP-Plus von 1,8 auf immerhin noch 1 Prozent. Dann sollte die Schweiz von einem Aufschwung in den USA profitieren können. Die amerikanische Notenbank hatte am Mittwoch die Leitzinsen auf 1 Prozent gesenkt - dem niedrigsten Niveau seit 45 Jahren - um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln.

Derzeit sieht der Konjunkturhimmel aber immer noch düster aus. Überall kämpfe die Wirtschaft gegen Überkapazitäten und deflationären Druck an, schreibt die Credit Suisse. Die Erwartungen, die in die Geldpolitik gesetzt werden, hätten sich nicht umfassend erfüllt.

Für die Schweiz, die Anfang Jahr in eine Rezession geschlittert ist, zeigte sich zunächst ein zweigeteiltes Bild, wie es weiter heisst. Während der Konsum recht robust geblieben war, hatten vor allem die rückläufigen Exporte der Wirtschaft geschadet. Zudem sinken die Investitionen bereits seit dem ersten Quartal 2001.

Der Konsum, eine wichtige Stütze des BIP, dürfte sich nun ebenfalls in die Abwärtstendenz einreihen. Grund dafür seien die steigende Arbeitslosigkeit, die steigenden Krankenkassenprämien und Pensionkassenbeiträge sowie die stockenden Löhne, schreibt die Grossbank.

Für die Bauwirtschaft gebe es im laufenden Jahr auch keine Entwarnung. Vor allem der Tiefbau, der in erster Linie von der öffentlichen Hand lebt, bekomme das Sparprogramm des Bundes zu spüren. Eine schwache Erholung erwartet die Credit Suisse erst für 2004. 281157 jun


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

Speziell für alle diejenigen Leser, die immer noch fälschlicherweise glauben, es handle sich bei der Goldpreis Manipulation, nur um eine Verschwörungstheorie!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Gold Derivatives: Updating the Scorecard. On May 8, 2003, the Bank for International Settlements released its regular semi-annual report on global OTC derivatives, which showed continued robust growth across all major categories during both the last half and all of 2002 http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0305.pdf. Total notional value of gold derivatives rose from $279 billion at mid-year to $315 billion by December 31, an increase of $36 billion or almost 13% in the last half alone. On June 2, separate figures for forwards and swaps and for options were reported in table 22A of the BIS Quarterly Review http://www.bis.org/press/p030602a.htm.

On June 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released its report on the derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks as of March 31, 2003 http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm. Their gold derivatives, held almost entirely by J.P. Morgan Chase, Citibank and HSBC USA, fell marginally from $71.7 billion at the end of 2002 to $67.5 billion at the end of this year`s first quarter.

All this new data has been summarized by Mike Bolser in chart form according to his usual practice. When reduced to tonnes, total forwards and swaps now exceed 14,000 tonnes, continuing to push toward the upper reaches of the estimated total short physical position.

See Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmatehttp://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855; also Gold: Cover or Cover-up? http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor77962 and Long Con: Mother of Bank Runs. http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary25.html#anchor522925 (Note: Because the gold derivatives of investment banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) and others (e.g., American International Group) are not included in the OCC reports, they do not give a complete picture of all gold derivatives held by major U.S. banks and dealers.)



De-Hedging Throws a Curve. Although estimates vary, total producer hedgebooks apparently declined by some 500 tonnes, from over 3000 tonnes to perhaps under 2500, during calendar 2002. Whatever the exact amount of the decline, it failed not only to manifest itself in total forwards and swaps reported by the BIS, but also to prevent these figures from rising sharply. This phenomenon is wholly inconsistent with the frequently stated view that producer hedgebooks are the principal driver of total gold lending.

With the totals reported by the BIS in a pronounced uptrend, the gently declining trend at the three U.S. commercial banks over the past several quarters suggests that gold derivatives must either be growing strongly at major U.S. investment banks and dealers or elsewise exploding at foreign-based institutions.

As in prior years, the 2002 annual reports from UBS http://www.ubs.com and Deutsche Bank http://www.deutsche-bank.com include detailed information on their precious metals derivatives (almost all gold). Unlike most other major bullion banks (and most central banks), these two huge international banks do not hide their gold banking operations from any intelligent scrutiny.

Deutsche Bank`s OTC precious metals derivatives closed 2002 at E57.5 billion in total notional value, up from E41.6 billion the previous year and eclipsing the old 1999 high of E50.9 billion. The increases over the prior year were spread across all maturities (less than 1 year, 1-5 years, over 5 years) with larger percentage increases coming in the longer maturities (e.g., from E3.6 billion to E6.6 billion in the over 5 years category). Deutsche Bank does not break out forwards and swaps from options.

At UBS, the total notional value of OTC precious metals derivatives declined in 2002 for the fourth year in a row, to CHF56.6 billion from CHF71.1 billion at the end of 2001, and down by just over 50% from CHF112.9 billion at the end of 1999. As in the prior two years, the reductions took place entirely in options. Forwards, which had been reduced from CHF47.7 billion at the end of 1998 to CHF15.3 billion by the end of 2000, closed 2002 at CHF18.0 billion versus CHF17.0 billion the previous year. UBS reports positive and negative market values by maturity but not by notional value.

Converting the figures for Deutsche Bank and UBS to tonnes, Mike has charted them alongside total gold derivatives reported by the BIS. As the chart makes clear, UBS has cut its gold derivatives by half since 1999 while the trend at Deutsche Bank almost exactly mirrors that of the totals reported by the BIS.



The divergences in trend among UBS, Deutsche Bank and the BIS totals are striking. The reductions at UBS may have received a real tail wind from Swiss gold sales. At Deutsche Bank, on the other hand, periodic threats of future gold sales by the Bundesbank can have provided only buffeting. UBS has not been observed to act with the gold price fixing cabal. Deutsche Bank, although missing in action recently, was a charter member. See Complaint, paragraphs 11, 42 and 45. http://www.goldensextant.com/Complaint.html#anchor3130 Finally, UBS built its gold banking business over decades. Deutsche Bank built its now larger business in a just a few years beginning at roughly the same time as the gold price fixing scheme.

Newmont Plays Hardball. In a startling recent gambit, Newmont hit back hard at the bullion banks that pitched hedges to Normandy`s Yandal subsidiary, which Newmont acquired last year by merger but without becoming directly liable for its obligations. Against proven and probable reserves of just over 2.1 million ounces, Yandal had sold forward (or written options on) some 3.5 million ounces. Having promised to reduce Normandy`s hedgebook through "opportunistic" buy-backs, Newmont decided to play hardball in response to an attempt by one of Yandal`s bullion banks to exercise right to break clauses in its hedge contracts.

Newmont threatened to let Yandal slide into insolvency unless each of its bullion banks either accepted a cash offer of 50 cents for each dollar of Yandal`s net mark-to-market liability on its hedge contracts to that bank as of May 22, 2003, or, alternatively, assigned those contracts to a Newmont subsidiary and entered into new hedge contracts with Newmont equal to an undivided 40% of Yandal`s existing hedge obligations to that bank. As of June 3, 2003, all but one of Yandal`s bullion banks, collectively representing 94% of the hedged ounces and 76% of the negative mark-to-market liability, had accepted the cash offer for a total payment of $77 million. See Newmont, Press Release, http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030603/latu144_1.html PRNewswire-FirstCall (June 3, 2003).

Whether Newmont will close the deal without an acceptance by the lone holdout, rumored to be Goldman Sachs, before a deadline of June 21 has been questioned (e.g., Tim Wood, "Yandal hedge drama - it`s not over yet," http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525… Mineweb (June 4, 2003)), but Newmont appears to consider the acceptances in hand as a done deal. See "Newmont says nearly out of Aussie gold hedges," http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030611/minerals_newmont_hedging_2.ht… Reuters (June 11, 2003). In any event, two points are clear: Newmont`s management is bullish on gold prices; and gold bears are spinning the drama for their own purposes.

Witness a New York bullion trader as quoted by Alden Bentley, "Newmont closes book on Yandal gold hedges," http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030604/minerals_newmont_goldhedges_1… Reuters (June 4, 2003): "It`s just a dramatic finish. That hedge book is gone with the exception of that one position. Its going to severely limit the pace of buybacks. It`s definitely going to alleviate the upside pressure for gold, once the market digests what happened." Or the following from a newspaper often regarded as close to the Bank of England (John Dizard, "Neither a borrower nor gold lender be," http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/Sto… (June 5, 2003):

In the meantime, the gold lenders to Yandal had to balance their books and offset their newly naked short position by buying up gold over the past few months. That 2.5 million to 3.5 million ounces of gold demand has helped run the price up to its recent peak of around $390. Since the uncollectible loans have been covered, demand and the price have slumped.

Taking the high end of the range, 3.5 million ounces is equivalent to 109 tonnes worth a little over $1 billion at $300/ounce. Newmont announced its offer on May 27, less than three weeks ago. Yandal`s bullion banks must have had unusual clairvoyance to cover "over the past few months." What is more, they must have done so with their own money since no cash has yet changed hands. But whether they have already covered or have yet to do so, the key issue is not when but how they cover.

Nothing about Newmont`s offer requires or even implies any bullion repayments to those who loaned gold to Yandal`s bankers. Unless they elect to cover by purchasing physical metal, the total short physical position of 15,000 tonnes remains unchanged and direct demand in the physical market is not affected. Yandal`s bankers are far more likely to cover by purchasing options or other derivatives. In that event, as the recent figures from the BIS demonstrate, 109 tonnes is a drop in the bucket, unlikely to have any noticeable impact on gold prices unless specifically executed for that purpose, and even then having only transitory effect.

Bush League Analysis. At over 30,000 tonnes, total gold derivatives are now approximately equal to total reported official gold reserves. Yet, although the data on gold derivatives reported by the BIS represents the only publicly available information compiled on the global gold market according to a published methodology by a presumably reliable source, neither the World Gold Council nor Gold Fields Minerals Services appears to make any effort to try to reconcile their statistics on global gold flows with the BIS figures.

However, CPM Group, another mainstream provider of data to the precious metals industry, has recently taken a greater interest in the mammoth gold derivatives market. See Tim Wood, "Physical gold trade is a dwarf - CPM Group," http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525… Mineweb (June 10, 2003). According to its managing director, Jeffrey Christian: "The physical market has been very small compared to the derivatives trading based on it. Yet, it is surprising the extent to which many gold market observers could not see this very fat, very enormous tail that was wagging the dog."

Contrary to 1999, neither the sharp rally in gold prices in 2002 nor the addition of roughly 5000 tonnes of gold derivatives boosted trading at the London Bullion Market Association, where average daily turnover of gold remained locked in the strong downward trend that began following the spike in turnover precipitated by the Washington Agreement on Gold and consequent rally in prices. See http://www.goldensextant.com/Charts.html#anchor161737 GOLD MARKET REGRESSION CHARTS. Not surprisingly, therefore, reports from the LBMA`s recent shindig in Lisbon conveyed a rather gloomy tone. Stewart Bailey reported in "Gold bears hijack LBMA 2003," http://www.mips1.net/mgl03.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5N6QMQ?OpenDocument Mineweb (June 3, 2003):

Of chief concern for the industry`s major players is the fact that the much vaunted investment demand, which was to be the silver bullet for the market, has failed to materialize and still languishes around 12 percent of total gold offtake [3978 tonnes in 2002 according to GFMS] each year. The failure of gold as an investment to meet expectations is all the more disappointing given the near perfect conditions for its so-called safe-haven status, or its quality as `real money` when pitted against the world`s fiat currencies; ... .

"There is a feeling of, `if it doesn`t happen now then when`s it going happen,`" says Gold Field Mineral Services managing director Phillip Klapwijk.

While gold`s 25% price jump in 2002 may have disappointed some gold bulls, it considerably exceeded the published predictions of most if not all analysts in the LBMA fraternity. The alleged shortfall in investment demand is based on nothing more than estimates of dubious and unverifiable validity from GFMS, which put bar hoarding and implied net investment at "a rather anemic" 382 tonnes in 2002, up from 248 tonnes the prior year, according to Stewart Bailey in "Gold still missing the point," http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525… Mineweb (June 8, 2003). See also GFMS, "Gold Supply & Demand Report Q1 2003" http://www.gfms.co.uk/ (May 2003).

In contrast, CPM Group reported in its "Gold Survey Press Release" http://www.cpmgroup.com (April 29, 2003):

The sharp rise in gold prices in 2002 reflected a massive rush into gold by investors worldwide. Investors bought more gold bullion in 2002 than they had in any year since 1967, the year that investors flooded the world’s central banks with their paper money in exchange for gold, leading to the collapse of the post-war gold-dollar standard for international currency markets. ...

The dynamics of the market are that investors, stimulated by international financial, economic, and political conditions, raced to buy gold last year, purchasing an estimated 26.9 million ounces [836.7 tonnes] on a global net basis. This investor buying, more than double the 10.0 million ounces [311 tonnes] purchased by investors on a net basis the year before, in 2001, squeezed jewelers and other fabricators out of the gold market, and led other people to sell their jewelry and other gold-bearing items to scrap dealers for its gold content.

These widely varying figures on investment demand apparently reflect different approaches to measurement. GFMS looks exclusively at physical demand. CPM Group also takes into account paper gold, including derivatives. Last year alone, gold derivatives accounted for twice as much tonnage as gold producers and equaled 125% of GFMS`s estimate of total physical offtake. Under these circumstances, gold`s performance is rather creditable. What is more, it should be quite alarming to the central banks whose vaults are slowly and steadily being emptied even while significant investment demand is being diverted into paper gold.

Big League Analysis. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Gold: The Investment Case, the Commodity Case" http://www.canarc.net/venerosos_corner.asp (March 21, 2003), Frank Veneroso`s most recent published article on the gold market, is mandatory reading for all gold bugs and anyone else who follows gold. (Available at the same URL is an MP3 audio file of Mr. Veneroso`s June 6, 2003, conference call on " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Gold Bullion Flows and the Outlook for Gold."

Most of the article is devoted to an analysis of multiple factors that are expected ultimately to result in an upsuge of investment demand for gold. In this connection, some "very rough numbers on the composition of the global balance sheet" are cited (at page 12) to show that total global gold holdings, including official reserves, amount to just $1.4 trillion, as against total global private monetary and financial assets of over $100 trillion, of which privately held bullion accounts for a mere $300 billion, leading to the conclusion (at pages 25-26):

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Given the small role that gold now plays in so large a global wealth portfolio, only a miniscule asset allocation toward gold could blow the lid off the gold price."

For present purposes, the key point is found on page 5:

On the internet there is still much discussion of the gold loan position [i.e., total short physical position of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes]. Many gold bulls are eagerly awaiting the inevitable short covering explosion in gold. Well, it`s time has passed. What we have instead is simply a gold market under management by an official sector that has far less ammunition to enforce its management than most people realize. For this reason we believe that the official sector will lose control within perhaps three to five years. If investment demand materializes in the global gold market, that day will come earlier. ...

The new data on gold derivatives is consistent with this view. The anticipated gold short covering rally has largely occurred, most notably after the Washington Agreement in 1999 and again in the latter part of last year. It was turned back in 1999-2000 and blunted in 2002 by massive explosions in gold derivatives. In other words, investment demand was satisfied by paper gold whenever possible rather than physical bullion, and derivatives were employed whenever necessary to transfer risk from the bullion banks to the central banks.

Some simple examples may help to illustrate these processes. When investors go long in gold through futures, options or even gold certificates, they are accepting someone`s promise to pay gold in place of physical bullion. What is more, if the long position is closed out at a profit which the investor is willing to take in cash rather than metal, no physical gold need ever be involved. While the prudent seller (or writer) of the long position normally delta hedges its exposure, that hedge too could -- and frequently is -- carried out in the paper market. Given the very small size of the gold market relative to other investment and financial markets, losses that bullion banks can settle in cash rather than metal are unlikely to threaten any widespread systemic failure because they can easily be handled by the central banks.

To take another example, suppose a producer de-hedges by delivering into a forward contract. The bullion bank receives the metal, but is it then returned to the central bank lender? Not necessarily. If metal is required to meet demand in the physical market, the central bank may elect to roll over its gold loan to the bullion bank while simultaneously selling it a new hedge to replace the producer`s contract. In this event, the original gold loan stays on the books of both banks. In the bullion bank`s derivatives reporting, the forward contract with the producer is simply replaced by one with the central bank or an equivalent option. Indeed, if done at a higher effective price for the same weight of gold, the notional value of the new hedge will be greater than that of the one it replaces.

Father Knows Best. One of the more promising recent developments in the gold market is the creation of exchange traded funds and similar vehicles that try to make it easier for investors to acquire and hold what is effectively allocated gold, and thereby to support and augment physical demand. The premature demise of the short covering rally has postponed but not canceled the next roaring bull market for gold. It will break out when physical investment demand exhausts or overwhelms the willingness of the central banks to continue to empty their vaults, or when some other event reveals the extent to which their physical gold reserves have already been depleted.

In earlier times, when the volume of paper gold grew too large relative to physical supply, bank runs, panics, devaluations or "going off specie" followed. The last big event of this nature was the closing of the U.S. gold window in 1971, more than a generation ago. Since then, the modern mind has become accustomed to thinking of financial wealth in dollars having no fixed relationship to gold (or any other real asset). Under these conditions, abetted by modern derivatives, the supply of paper gold has mushroomed relative to physical supply.

Famous investor Warren Buffett has suggested that derivatives are a form of financial sewage. His father took a similar view of irredeemable paper money. Concluding a 1948 speech to the Conference of American Small Business Organizations, "Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable Money" (The Commercial and Financial Chronicle (May 6, 1948), Nebraska Congressman Howard Buffett stated:

The paper money disease has been a pleasant habit thus far and will not be dropped voluntarily any more than a dope user will without a struggle give up narcotics. But in each case the end of the road is not a desirable prospect.

I can find no evidence to support a hope that our fiat paper money venture will fare better ultimately than such experiments in other lands. Because of our economic strength the paper money disease here may take many years to run its course.

But we can be approaching the critical stage. When that day arrives, our political rulers will probably find that a foreign war and ruthless regimentation is the cunning alternative to domestic strife. That was the way out for the paper-money economy of Hitler and others.

In these remarks I have only touched the high points of this problem. I hope that I have given you enough information to challenge you to make a serious study of it.

I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold, although they may outwardly seemingly favor it. Also those elements here and abroad who are getting rich from the continued American inflation will oppose a return to sound money. You must be prepared to meet their opposition intelligently and vigorously. They have had 15 years of unbroken victory.

But unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money.

There is no more important challenge facing us than this issue -- the restoration of your freedom to secure gold in exchange for the fruits of your labors.

Since 1948, the proponents of paper money have remained ascendant for more than half a century. Nevertheless, Americans have regained "the freedom to secure gold" in the open market. The question posed by the Buffetts -- father and son -- boils down to this: Can crap be saved with more crap? As strange as today`s gold market would seem to their fathers, for today`s investors the reasons to hold gold are the same as ever.

We think our fathers fools, so wise we grow;
Our wiser sons, no doubt, will think us so.
Alexander Pope (An Essay on Criticism, 1711)

Quelle:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary25.html#anchor168813

[bluemoons]

Wie man GOLD mit PAPIER steuert


Quelle: Controlling Gold with Paper
Geschrieben am 08.06.02 von Jason Hommel für Gold Eagle

Am Dienstag, dem 4. Juni fiel der Kassakurs für Gold in den Sekundärmarktstunden von 329$/Unze auf 325$/Unze, und im Verlauf des nächsten Tages fiel er weiter auf 321$/Unze. Weniger als 24 Stunden später berichtete http://www.theminingweb.com/ und die GATA, daß dies ein Ergebnis eines Großverkaufs von Terminkontrakten mit einem relativ illiquidem Datum in einem relativ illiquidem Markt (wegen der ungewöhnlichen Uhrzeit) war, was den Preis gedrückt hat.

Es ist raffiniert zu sehen, wie der Preis des Goldes diesmal wie auch früher mit Papier-Kontrakten heruntermanipuliert wurde. Da kommt die Frage auf: "Wie können die den Goldpreis niederknüppeln, wenn sie gar kein Gold verkaufen?" Ich möchte mein bestes tun und versuchen, dieses Falschspiel zu vereinfachen und zu erklären, und die wesentlichen Tatsachen, die so bullisch für den Goldmarkt sind, behandeln, welche auch zurzeit den aktuellen Bullenmarkt im Gold verursachen. Diese Abhandlung könnte Ihnen auch helfen, Ihre Freunde, Verwandte und Bekannte, die den Gold Eagle nicht lesen, vom Nutzen der Investition in Gold zu überzeugen.

Wenn Sie zu Ihrem örtlichen Münzhändler gehen, um Gold und Silber zu kaufen (was ich nur wärmstens empfehlen kann, so bald wie möglich zu tun), sucht der Händler sich den Goldpreis in New York heraus. Dieser ist der "Spotmarkt" oder "Kassakurs", welcher sich den Tag über ändert. Auf Grundlage dieses Preises wird er Ihnen (mit einem kleinen Aufschlag) seine physischen Metalle verkaufen, wenn Sie ihm dafür Papiergeld geben. Er ist bereit, Ihr naturgemäß wertloses Papier anzunehmen (verblüffend!), weil er das Vertrauen hat, daß er mit dem Bargeld in der Lage sein wird, schnell wieder Gold und Silber zu kaufen. Auf diese Weise beeinflußt der Kassakurs in New York wegen des Vertrauens, welches die Leute in den Markt in New York haben, die Realpreise überall auf der Welt. Sie haben das Vertrauen (Schlüsselwort), daß sie das Geld an einen Metallhändler in New York überweisen können und Gold oder Silber am nächsten Tag geliefert bekommen. Würde dieses Vertrauen nicht existieren, müßte sich ein Händler des örtlichen Münzgeschäfts eine andere Versorgungsquelle suchen, auf die er sich verlassen könne und in welche er Vertrauen habe, und die festgelegten Preise dieser anderen Quelle wären dann "der Preis".

Nur zu gerne würde ich ins Edelmetallgeschäft einsteigen und anfangen, mit Barren zu handeln. Dies wäre ein exzellentes Geschäft, weil, sobald der Bullenmarkt beginnen würde, mehr und mehr Leute Metall kaufen wollen würden und das Geschäft brummen würde. Zudem glaube ich an den moralischen Nutzen, Gold- und Silbermünzen zu besitzen, also würde ich mich sehr gut dadurch fühlen, Gold in die Hände des Volkes zu geben, heraus aus den Klauen der bösen Zentralbankiers, die es zuvor gestohlen haben. Ich glaube ich würde einen wahren Dienst an der Menschheit vollbringen, wenn ich den Leuten helfe, ihren Reichtum zu wahren, und ich würde den guten Kampf gegen das Zentralbankwesen führen, welches Schuld an so viel Leid in der Welt ist.

Unglücklicherweise weiß ich, daß der Zusammenbruch kommt. Ich weiß, daß möglicherweise die Zeit kommen würde, wenn ich versuchen würde, Gold und Silber in New York zu kaufen und ich würde nichts bekommen, nachdem ich den Auftrag verschickt hätte. Ich glaube die Münzhändler in diesem Land sind wahre Helden, ihr Geschäft angesichts dieser Gefahr weiterzuführen. Grundsätzlich weiß ich, daß die Situation einem Falschspiel entspricht. Vertrauen hält das Spiel am Laufen, und ich habe kein Vertrauen in den New Yorker Preis, anders als unsere heldenhaften Münzhändler. Ich habe mit Münzhändlern darüber gesprochen, und sie zucken mit den Schultern und sagen, daß dies das ganz normale Geschäftsrisiko sei, welches bei jedem Unternehmen existiere. Ich denke das ist eine verblüffend heldenhafte Einstellung, die sie da haben.

Genauso wie die Münzhändler, welche den Kassakurs heraussuchen, haben jene in New York, die den Kassakurs festmachen, Vertrauen in einen anderen Markt, und das ist der Terminmarkt. Wenn sie sehen, daß der Preis von Gold in einer "Dezember-Lieferung" oder einem anderen zukünftigen Monat einen gewissen Betrag hat, dann gibt es preisbestimmende Wertpapierhändler, die dem Termin-Marktpreis genug vertrauen, daß sie ihr Gold heute verkaufen und bis in den Dezember warten, um ihre Reserven aufzustocken. Auf diese Weise kann der Termin-Marktpreis die heutigen Preise beeinflussen. Oder - anders ausgedrückt - ein Einbruch des Preises im Terminmarkt ergibt einen sogenannten gültigen Scheingrund für einen Einbruch des entsprechenden heutigen Kassakurses.

Auf diese Weise braucht man nicht wirklich Gold zu verkaufen, um die Märkte abwärts zu manipulieren. Alles, was man braucht, ist die Fähigkeit Gold-Terminkontrakte zu erstellen und zu verkaufen. Dann muß man, nachdem man das Kontraktpapier verkauft hat und bevor das Auslieferdatum erreicht wird, nur noch eine andere Person davon überzeugen, das kurze Ende des eigenen Terminkontraktes anzunehmen, und man kann davonkommen, indem man die eigene Verpflichtung (in der Zukunft Gold zu verkaufen) jemand anderem aufgebürdet hat.

Natürlich ist das jetzt sehr vereinfacht, und die Spieler sind keine anonymen Witzbolde. Reales Gold kommt durch die Zentralbanken auf den Markt, die ihr Gold zu 1% verleihen und so weitermachen, als ob sie immer noch Gold besitzen, welches bereits lange weg ist. Deswegen reden Nationen, als ob sie noch Gold besitzen, doch längst haben sie keines mehr. Viele Leute, mich eingeschlossen, nennen solch eine Praxis nichts anderes als Betrug, weil zuallererst das Gold dem Volke gehört und das Volk belogen wird. Zweitens wurde es für weniger als 1% seines Wertes "verkauft". Und drittens wird darüber berichtet, als hätte es nie die Tresore verlassen, dennoch hat es das. Es ist sicher, daß der gewaltige Betrag an Gold, welches auf diese Weise verkauft wurde, für die Zentralbankiers vollständig verloren ist, denn in die Märkte zu gehen und so viel Gold aufzukaufen, um es zurückzuzahlen, würde den Preis in den Himmel schießen lassen, die Institutionen, die es zuvor von den Zentralbanken geliehen haben, würden bankrott gehen.

Eine kleinere Diskussion beginnt gerade, weil die "offiziellen" Mengen von Gold, von denen man zugibt, sie verkauft zu haben, bei vier- bis fünftausend Tonnen liegen, aber jene, die dies tiefgehend untersucht haben, festgestellt haben, daß die tatsächliche Zahl viel eher bei 15.000 Tonnen liegt. Ich glaube, die letztere Zahl ist näher an der wahren Zahl dran.

Wie dem auch sei, dieses Gold wird zum großen Teil von den Edelmetall-Bankiers wie JP Morgan und Goldman Sachs geschuldet. Ein kleinerer Teil wird von den Goldminengesellschaften weltweit geschuldet, welche insgesamt 2.700 Tonnen Gold "vorwärts" verkauft haben, welche jetzt jedoch zunehmend mit sich selbst ringen, um dieses Gold zurückzukaufen, bevor der Rückzahlungspreis dieser Obligationen weiter steigt. So waren die Edelmetallbankiers zu ihrem Pech nicht in der Lage, so viel des Risikos zu übertragen, wie sie es gerne getan hätten, und das Falschspiel hat sich gegen sie gewendet, seit die Bergbaugesellschaften das Hegding einstellen.

Das Falschspiel endet nun, weil die Gold-Anleger die Gefahren des Hedging und Zentralbankverleihs im September 1999 entdeckt haben. Zu jener Zeit hat das Washingtoner Abkommen - welches ein Abkommen der europäischen Zentralbanken (und nicht Washingtons) war, für die nächsten fünf Jahre Goldverkäufe auf 400 Tonnen pro Jahr zu beschränken - verursacht, daß der Goldpreis schnell auf 337$/Unze hochschoß, was wiederum beinahe den Bankrott zweier Goldminengesellschaften verursacht hat, nämlich Ashanti und Cambior, die ihr Gold gehegded, also vorwärts verkauft hatten. Deshalb begann die Gold-Welt langsam, die Wahrheit und Gefahr des Gold-Hedgings wahrzunehmen, und begann die Wahrheit über das Gold-Leasing der Zentralbanken zu verstehen.
All diese Zahlen sind niedlich verglichen zu den Zahlen der COMEX, dem Gold-Terminmarkt, welche vor kurzem 200.000 Kontrakte erreichte. Da ein Kontrakt 100 Unzen entspricht, sind das 20 Millionen Unzen. Umgerechnet nach Tonnen (geteilt durch 32,152 Unzen/Tonne) macht es etwa 622 Tonnen.

Nun bringen die Goldminen jährlich 2.500 reale Tonnen auf den Markt, und der Markt verbraucht 4.000 Tonnen pro Jahr, die Differenz wird über die Zentralbanken geliefert, die Gold verleasen, welches nirgendwo genannt wird. Sobald das Leasen der Zentralbanken endet, wird eine 4.000 Tonnen-Nachfrage bei einem 2.500 Tonnen-Angebot den Preis schon um einiges anheben. Zusätzlich, wäre es für eine Edelmetallbank, die 5 bis 15 Tausend Tonnen schuldet, praktisch eine Unmöglichkeit, auf den Markt zu gehen und so viel Gold aufzukaufen, um die Goldschuld zu begleichen. Bei Fälligkeit innerhalb eines Jahres wären das 4.000 Tonnen plus 15.000 Tonnen auf der Nachfrageseite, bei nur 2.500 Tonnen Angebot.

Stellen Sie sich den Preisanstieg in diesem Szenario vor, und stellen Sie sich die Anleger-Nachfrage vor, wenn der Goldpreis abhebt und überwältigend seinen Status als einzig existenter sicherer Hafen beweist.

Offensichtlich wird dies ein böses Ende für die Bankiers, welche ihrer Schuld nicht nachkommen können, und es wird dafür sorgen, dass der Goldpreis in die Höhe schnellt. Dies sind die grundlegenden Details, die jeder Gold-Anleger wissen muss.

Das nächste größere Thema, welches die Goldanleger verstehen müssen, ist, dass eine potentielle Nachfrage für Gold besteht, die gleich der Gesamtmenge aller Dollars und aller anderer Fiat-Währungen ist, die geschaffen wurden. Diese Geldschöpfung ist die Inflation, die den Goldpreis in die Mondumlaufbahn befördern wird. Nicht über die zukünftige Inflation muss man sich Sorgen machen und sie ist auch nicht die Ursache für den Gold-Bullenmarkt, sondern die bereits geschehene Inflation ist es. M3 repräsentiert die liquiden Dollarreserven, die von US-Banken gehalten werden, und welche nun 8 Billionen Dollar überschritten hat. Alles Gold dieser Welt zusammen kommt auf 120.000 bis 130.000 Tonnen - bei 330$/Unze sind das gerade 1,1 Billionen Dollar Wert. Und natürlich haben auch die Japaner Kaufkraft im Wert von über 10 Billionen Dollar. All diese Faktoren bedeuten großes für Goldbesitzer und die Besitzer von Aktien der Gold- und Silberminengesellschaften.

Dieses ganze Szenario wirft nun einen Haufen Fragen auf. Wie und warum würden die Edelmetallbankiers sich in solch gefährlichen Geschäftspraktiken engagieren, welche ihre eigene Existenz gefährden? Nun, die Edelmetallbanken sind die Partner der Zentralbanken, in vielen Fällen sogar deren Besitzer!
Im Grunde genommen sind die geheimen Zentralbank-Goldverleihungen die Methode, durch welche sie in der Lage waren die letzten 22 Jahre seit 1980 den Goldpreis unter Kontrolle zu halten, was den Regierungen ermöglichte, mit massiver Geldschöpfungsinflation in dieser Zeit ungeschoren davonzukommen. Die Geldschöpfung blieb unbemerkt, weil der Goldpreis fiel oder stabil blieb. Das ist der Betrug.

Ich glaube, dass Goldman Sachs und JP Morgan nicht länger die wahren Besitzer der Zentralbanken sind, sondern eher leere Hüllen ihres früheren Selbst. Beide sind öffentlich gehandelte Gesellschaften, die Aktien im Wert von Milliarden herausgegeben haben. Deswegen werden, wenn sie zusammenbrechen und bankrott gehen, die Aktienbesitzer dieser verlorenen Banken die Leidtragenden sein, wie etwa die Aktionäre von Enron, und nicht die Leute und Mächte, welche das kommende Fiasko angerichtet haben. Kein Wunder also dass JP Morgan der stärkste Partner von Enron war.

Fast buchstäblich wurde es zum größten Falschspiel in der Weltgeschichte. Lassen Sie sich nicht hinters Licht führen. Es gibt keinen vernünftigen Grund, weiterhin Vertrauen in das System zu haben. Gold kommt tosend ins Leben zurück und wird seinen grausamen Bullenmarkt bis zum Mond fortsetzen, wenn die Leute wach werden und das ganze Lügengebäude durchschauen.

Disclaimer: Ich bin kein lizenzierter Anlageberater und auch kein Makler. Ich halte Positionen in Edelmetallen und Aktien von Minengesellschaften, welche ich ohne Mitteilung austausche. Ich bin voreingenommen gegen das, was ich für den Betrug durch Fiat Money halte, welches falsche Gewichte und Messwerte sind und eine Abscheulichkeit an sich. Ich bin voreingenommen gegen die betrügerische Praxis, Geld aus dem Nichts zu schöpfen. Ich bin voreingenommen gegen Schulden, vor allem wenn Geld gegen welchen Zinssatz auch immer verliehen wird, eine Praxis, die man Wucher nennt.

Für eine Liste der vielen Gründe, warum ich glaube, dass jetzt eine gute Zeit wäre, Gold und Silber zu kaufen, studieren Sie meine Website http://www.goldismoney.com/.

Ich werde mein bestes tun, alle Fragen und Kommentare zu diesem Aufsatz oder dem betroffenen Thema zu beantworten, und ich würde gerne von jenen hören, die denken, dass dieses Stück Information ihrem Verständnis des Goldmarktes weitergeholfen hat.

Jason Hommel
June 10, 2002
http://www.f25.parsimony.net/forum63351/messages/20992.htm

[konradi]

@ bluemoons

das ist ja eine geniale Übersetzungssoftware, die Du da benutzt hast. Ist ja alles recht gut verständlich.
Oder hast Du da noch ein wenig nachschleifen müssen ?

Gruß Konradi

[bluemoons]

http://home.t-online.de/home/goldring/beschreibung.htm

[Wardriver]

Geht das schon wieder los,wer Gold verkauft manipuliert den Markt,so einfach ist das für die Gold-Gurus,so ein Unsinn,was da gemacht wird ist völlig legal,oder ist Gold verhökern neuerdings verboten.

Wardriver

[jeffery2]

War ja wieder sehr inhaltsschwer, was der WD da von sich gab.
Brille ist geputzt, werde Deinen Weg mit scharfen Gläsern und gehässigen Kommentaren begleiten.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.inq7.net/brk/2003/jun/29/brkpol_2-1.htm



LONE GUNMAN SHOT BY MAYOR`S AIDES
Mayor in gold mine feud shot dead

Posted: 11:03 AM (Manila Time) | Jun. 29, 2003
Agence France-Presse

DAVAO City - A gunman shot and killed a Philippine mayor embroiled in a struggle to control operations of a gold rush site in the southern island of Mindanao, police said Sunday.

Joel Brillantes died on the spot late Saturday after being shot by a suspect identified as Anecito Dejito, who was himself later killed by the politician`s bodyguards.

Brillantes had been feuding with miners after his company wrested control of the Diwalwal gold rush site in the town of Monkayo.

The Phillipines president`s office had intervened in the dispute two years ago in favor of the miners who agreed to form a cooperative and set aside 15 percent of their earnings for the government.

Police said they were investigating whether the killing was connected to the dispute.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/siebholz062903.html

Barrick`s Hedge Book - A Recipe for Disaster?

Dietmar Siebholz

The Facts


The ongoing accumulation of physical gold in the Eastern hemisphere leads to a factual re-distribution of real gold holdings from West to East. He who has the gold makes the rules…

The extremely low interest rate environment has all but destroyed the advantages of the gold carry trade.

The delivery and cover obligations in kind are still binding for the hedgers and shorting hedge funds.

weak US dollar will lead to forced short-covering according to risk management rule without gold necessarily rising against competing currencies. In the longer run, however, it may be expected that gold will appreciate against all currencies as competitive de-valuations, known as beggar thy neighbour policies, will be adopted.

The Blanchard vs JPM/Barrick suit may well shed some light onto the risk distribution between the 2 parties on their mutual forward sales contracts.

The new Maginot line for gold at 370$/oz, defended as it seems in the moment, will give way rather sooner than later. If the Blanchard suit proceeds to discovery and the Yandal deal becomes known in its gory details, it may be sooner than many think.



Derived from musings by a former German investment banker, Dietmar Siebholz and a former Austrian investment banker Florian Riedl-Riedenstein - late June 2003.

weiter....

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/siebholz062903.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/06/29/126151.html

USA erwägen gezielten Militärschlag gegen Iran
Perser wären trotz West-Orientierung zum Kampf im Namen Allahs bereit

von Peter Scholl-Latour

Die Zeichen stehen auf Sturm für Teheran. John Bolton, Staatssekretär im US-Verteidigungsministerium, hat wissen lassen, dass das militärische Eingreifen gegen die Islamische Republik Iran eine ernsthaft erwogene Option sei. George W. Bushs Sicherheitsberaterin Condoleezza Rice sagte, die USA würden allein handeln, wenn die Europäer nicht bereit seien, den Iran an der Entwicklung von Atomwaffen zu hindern. Ihnen liege aber nichts daran, die Frage der Nicht-Verbreitung von Atomwaffen jedes Mal nach dem Muster Iraks zu behandeln, schränkte sie ein. Nach Meinungsumfragen sprechen sich 56 Prozent der US-Bürger für einen Militärschlag aus, um die Entwicklung nuklearer Waffen durch das Mullah-Regime zu verhindern.

Neben dem Vorwurf, Al-Qaida-Terroristen auf ihrem Staatsgebiet zu dulden, wirft Washington der schiitischen Geistlichkeit des Iran vor, die Glaubensbrüder im Irak gegen den US-Verwalter Paul Bremer zu mobilisieren. Ob die schiitische Bevölkerungsmehrheit Mesopotamiens aber einer solchen Ermunterung von außen bedarf, ist keineswegs sicher.

Sowohl der Irak als auch der Iran erleben derzeit eine signifikante Entwicklung - allerdings in konträrer Richtung: Während im Iran die Studentenproteste deutlich machten, dass der schiitische Gottesstaat, so wie ihn Ajatollah Ruhollah Khomeini im Jahr 1979 gegründet hatte, infrage gestellt wird, vollzieht sich bei den schiitischen Massen im Irak eine schwärmerische Hinwendung zum islamischen Eiferertum.

Die Frage ist nun, ob die Unruhen im Irak sowie die anarchischen Zustände in Afghanistan überhaupt ein zügiges militärisches Vorgehen der USA gegen das Regime in Teheran erlauben? Die Risiken sind erheblich. Der Iran hat 70 Millionen Einwohner und verfügt über ein extrem schwieriges Terrain. Im Übrigen können die Studenten-Kundgebungen nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, dass die Intellektuellen und das Bürgertum zwar mit dem westlichen Lebensstil liebäugeln, im Falle einer ausländischen Bedrohung sich jedoch mitsamt den Elite-Einheiten der iranischen Revolutionsgarden und dem dubiosen Aufgebot der Bassidschi-Volksmiliz zu erbittertem Widerstand zusammenschließen dürften. In Teheran würde der Kampf im Namen Allahs und der iranischen Nation aufgenommen und nicht im Dienste eines Diktators wie Saddam Hussein.

Wird Bush mit einem Militärschlag gegen Iran abwarten, bis er die nächste Präsidentschaftswahl gewonnen hat? In der Zwischenzeit, so fürchtet das US-Verteidigungsministerium, könnte die persische Atombombe fertig gestellt werden. Jedenfalls wird Staatspräsident Mohammed Chatami, dessen mangelndes Durchsetzungsvermögen gegen die konservativen Mullahs viele seiner Anhänger enttäuscht hat, unter gewaltigen Druck geraten. Die Freigabe des persischen Territoriums für uneingeschränkte Inspektionen durch die Atomenergie-Behörde IAEA würde in den Augen des iranischen Generalstabs einer demütigenden Sicherheitsgefährdung gleichkommen.

In Teheran rechnet man nicht mit einer massiven Invasion der US-Streitkräfte nach irakischem Modell. Vermutlich würde sich Washington auf die Vernichtung der vermeintlichen nuklearen Rüstungsanlagen konzentrieren und durch die Bombardierung der Erdöl-Verschiffungsanlagen das ökonomische Potenzial Persiens blockieren. Zusätzlich geht die iranische Führung davon aus, dass die US-Navy die kleinen, aber strategisch wichtigen Inseln Abu Musa sowie Große und Kleine Tunb in der Straße von Hormus besetzen könnte, die seinerzeit vom letzten Schah willkürlich unter persische Kontrolle gebracht wurden. Ob solche gezielten Zugriffe ausreichen, um den Iran in die Knie zu zwingen oder ob sich dann in Persien lediglich Chaos und Fanatismus breit machen würden, ist eine Frage, die auch die Verbündeten Amerikas intensiv erwägen sollten.

Artikel erschienen am 29. Jun 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/06/30/126536.html

WestLB: Womöglich weitere Milliardenverluste
Bank muss offenbar bis zu 1,5 Milliarden Euro zusätzlich als Risikovorsorge bereithalten

Düsseldorf - Die riskanten Finanzierungsgeschäfte der WestLB AG könnten über die bisher bekannten Verluste in dreistelliger Millionenhöhe hinaus zu noch weit höheren Wertberichtigungen führen. Unter Berufung auf informierte Banker berichtet "Der Spiegel", die Bank müsse womöglich bis zu 1,5 Mrd. Euro zusätzlich als weitere Risikovorsorge bereithalten. Ein Bank-Sprecher wollte den Bericht nicht kommentieren

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Laut "Spiegel" geht es vor allem um weitere Wertberichtigungen im dreistelligen Millionenbereich bei dem britischen Fernsehvermieter Boxclever und bei der US-Flugzeugleasingfirma Boullioun Aviation Service, die zu 100 Prozent der WestLB gehört.

Durch die Krise in der Luftfahrtbranche seien die Leasingraten als auch der Wert der von Boullioun gekauften Flugzeugflotte drastisch gesunken. Angeblich sei Boullioun auf der Suche nach einem Käufer. Die WestLB hatte bereits Mitte Juni Medienberichte dementiert, wonach ihr durch Boullioun neue Wertberichtigungen in dreistelliger Millionenhöhe drohten. Die US-Tochter strebe 2003 ein ausgeglichenes operatives Ergebnis an, hatte das Institut damals mitgeteilt.

Verantwortlich für die Übernahme von Boullioun sei der bisherige Vorstandsvorsitzende und frühere Finanzchef Jürgen Sengera, berichtet das Magazin weiter. Er habe sich im Jahr 2000 gegen den Widerstand seines damaligen Vorstandschefs Friedel Neuber durchgesetzt. Am vergangenen Montag hatte Sengera gemeinsam mit Vorstandsmitglied Andreas Seibert den Hut nehmen müssen, nachdem es im Finanzierungsgeschäft zu Millionenverlusten gekommen und ein Prüfbericht der Finanzaufsicht zu offenbar verheerenden Einsichten gekommen war.

Medienberichten zufolge hatte die WestLB allein durch ihr Boxclever-Engagement mindestens 430 Mio. Euro verloren. Die Bank sprach bisher nur von Verlusten in dreistelliger Millionenhöhe. Im Mai hatte die WestLB wegen millionenschwerer Abschreibungen überraschend einen Vorsteuerverlust für 2002 von rund 1,7 Mrd. Euro bekannt gegeben.

In der von der Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft Ernst & Young im Auftrag der Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) vorgenommenen Sonderprüfung hatten die Experten dem Vorstand der WestLB nach Angaben aus Aufsichtsratskreisen ein verheerendes Zeugnis ausgestellt. So sei es weder zu einer üblichen Risikobewertung noch zu einer Abschätzung der künftigen Geschäftsaussichten bei Boxclever gekommen.

Unter Berufung auf den Prüfbericht von Ernst & Young hieß es in Zeitungsberichten, die Aufsichtsbehörde habe auf Grund des Berichts "Zweifel an der fachlichen Eignung und Zuverlässigkeit der verantwortlichen Vorstandsmitglieder." So habe der Vorstand der WestLB den bankinternen Kreditausschuss über wesentliche Teile des Boxclever-Geschäfts unzutreffend informiert. Trotz der ungenügenden Informationen habe das Zentrale Kreditmanagement dem Vorstand von einem Engagement bei Boxclever abgeraten. Der Vorstand habe diese Hinweise jedoch ignoriert und Boxclever einen Kredit von 1,3 Mrd. Euro eingeräumt. Auch hierzu wollte der Bank-Sprecher keinen Kommentar abgeben.

Aus Aufsichtsratskreisen hieß es bereits, dass die umstrittene Londoner Investmentbankerin Robin Saunders, die zu einem Großteil für die Millionenverluste im internationalen Finanzierungsgeschäft verantwortlich gemacht wird, offenbar massiven Druck auf die Düsseldorfer Bankenzentrale ausgeübt haben soll. Saunders habe erklärt, die WestLB werde das Geschäft verlieren, wenn nicht schnell die verlangten Kredite fließen würden. Die Staatsanwaltschaft Düsseldorf prüft seit Mittwoch, ob es einen Anfangsverdacht für strafrechtlich relevante Sachverhalte im Zusammenhang mit den Finanzierungsgeschäften gibt. rtr

Artikel erschienen am 30. Jun 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=35162&pn=b…

Muscat Gold Market to open on July 2

MUSCAT — Muscat Gold Market (MGM), the first gold mall of its kind in Oman, will open its doors for customers on July 2, a press release said. Designed to be among the best jewellery malls in the AGCC, MGM is a 1,700sq. metre mall set up for the lovers of gold and jewellery.

The mall is situated right in the heart of the city on the main road between the Ruwi and Hamriya roundabouts. The market houses leading jewellers like Damas, Bhaskar Devji Jewellers, Devji Aurum, Al Dalu Jewellers and Ramesh Jewellers offering wider choice and variety. In addition to the mega showrooms, the mall boasts of a spacious and air-conditioned interior that spell style and class, ample parking space, prayer rooms and a trendy coffee shop.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/korelin/korelin063003.html

Reasons to Stay Serious About Gold

Alexander B. Korelin

June 30, 2003


Import prices plunged at a shocking 32% annual rate in the largest one month drops in history. The next day, producer prices plummeted nearly 23% annually in its biggest drop on record. This was followed by the first decline in consumer prices since 2001 with core inflation hitting a 37 year low.

Needless to say, these figures were worse than anyone expected."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We all know the Fed`s already cut interest rates 12 times to revive the economy and it hasn`t worked. But this month, the Fed`s worst fears started to emerge.

Import prices plunged at a shocking 32% annual rate in the largest one month drops in history. The next day, producer prices plummeted nearly 23% annually in its biggest drop on record. This was followed by the first decline in consumer prices since 2001 with core inflation hitting a 37 year low.

Needless to say, these figures were worse than anyone expected."

That`s a little different from what we read in our local newspapers, isn`t it.

weiter....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/korelin/korelin063003.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/artic…

North Korea warns US against running to UN

SEOUL: North Korea warned on Saturday that it would regard a move by Washington to bring a standoff over the North`s nuclear program to the United Nations as a "prelude to war," and said it would respond with a "corresponding measure." North Korea`s official KCNA news agency did not say what the corresponding measure would be.

The communist country has been sharpening its anti-U.S. rhetoric amid tensions over its suspected nuclear weapons development. The United States has proposed that the Security Council issue a statement denouncing North Korea`s nuclear program. Washington and its allies have been pressuring the North to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

The North said it would consider the introduction of the nuclear issue at the U.N. Security Council "as a prelude to a war and take a corresponding measure."

The U.S. "intention to refer the issue to the U.N. can never be tolerated as it seeks to use the U.N. in achieving its criminal aim to isolate and stifle" North Korea, KCNA said.

On Friday, North Korea submitted a letter to the Security Council urging it to take a neutral stance on the nuclear dispute. North Korea accuses the United States of setting off the nuclear dispute to create an excuse to invade the communist country.

The nuclear standoff flared in October when U.S. officials said North Korea admitted having a secret nuclear program.

U.S. officials say North Korea has told them it already possesses nuclear bombs and plans to build more, but is willing to give them up in return for security guarantees and aid.

[ThaiGuru]

Lassen wir uns doch diese Woche überraschen!

[sebastianus]

@ThaiGuru

#6248 Der von Dir zitierte Text ist natürlich kein Fakt, sondern eine "Schock-Hypothese" des Autors.
Dies ist zwar offensichtlich, aber man sollte es doch erwähnen.

USA-Importpreise von May 2001 - May 2002 = -3.7 %
USA-Importpreise von May 2002 - May 2003 = +1.5 %

Grüsse - Sebastianus

[ThaiGuru]

@sebastianus

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Es handelt sich nicht wie Du annimmst um eine "Schock-Hypothese" des Autors wie Du glaubst unterstreichen zu müssen, sondern um die effektiven, wie der Autor glaubt, schockierenden Zahlen, hochgerechnet auf Jahres Prozente, (annual rate).

Die genauen Zahlen und Statisiken gibt`s hier:



http://stats.bls.gov/

[ThaiGuru]

Indien macht der Comex Konkurenz?

Wäre eigentlich höchste Zeit dafür

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id…


COMMODITY WATCH

2 NMCEs Rush To Launch Bullion Futures

Sharad Mistry

Mumbai, June 29: Gold may be India’s weakness and silver is a poor Indian’s gold. As almost 95 per cent of these commodities are imported, the fluctuating price could badly hit the bottomline of not just the jewellers and exporting entities but also of banks engaged in bullion trade.

So, the world’s largest consumer of both these bullion products does not have its own facility to hedge against price fluctuations. Little wonder therefore, bullion futures is fuelling the hope for successful launch of three of the four nationwide multi-commodity exchanges (NMCEs) and couple of the new commodity futures exchanges.

It was in late February this year, that the government had in principle cleared trading in bullion futures. However, formal clearance is still awaited. When permitted, India will have trading in bullion futures on more than four commodity exchanges.

Importantly, the efforts to soon launch bullion futures in India are primarily aimed at making India the gold price-determining country for the world’s gold market, given the fact that Indians use and consume over 500 tonne (tn) of gold each year — by far the largest in the world.

However, the rush to launch bullion futures in India is not seen to be supported by any serious market research by any of these new entrants in commodity futures. There is “vast scope” for a product like bullion futures to succeed in India, is all what the executives of the commexes say. Contrary to this, the London Metal Exchange (LME) has been debating for over one year to launch steel futures.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rules permit actual users of commodities to hedge their positions on the international markets. While some of the players in the bullion market do hedge their positions on the international commexes, a large number of them do so surreptitiously. Informed sources say, on any given day, Indian bullion traders and speculators hedge and speculate in gold futures to the extent of around Rs 1,000 crore. Albeit this is done through complex, illegal havala deals routed through contact persons in Dubai who then route the deals on to overseas exchanges through registered brokers of these commexes.

Internationally, gold and silver futures are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) or Commodity Exchange (COMEX); the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) and the Istanbul Gold Exchange. Even China has its own Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) which was kicked off in October 2002.

Further, because the size of a single gold futures contract traded on Commex, for example is of 100 oz (valued at around $35,000, or Rs 15 lakh plus) and on TOCOM it is 1 kg of gold. These contracts sizes are too large for small and medium investors and therefore, they are inevitably left out of this bullion hedging and speculation game. Therefore there is vast scope of bullion futures in India, they say.

Thus, hoping that the concerned authorities would soon clear trading in bullion futures, two NMCEs—National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) of the ICICI Bank led combine and the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX)—have already formulated their respective contracts for bullion futures.

India’s Own Gold Futures Contracts: Compared to the large size of gold contracts of two of the four international commodity exchanges trading in bullion futures, the gold futures contracts of both NCDEX and MCX would be of just 100 gms (around Rs 55,000). While MCX offers six concurrent contracts, NCDEX would offer three concurrent contracts.

Further, while the price quotes would be for popular 10 gms (roughly one tola) for both NCDEX and MCX, the tick size of MCX would be of 25 ps, while that of NCDEX would be 50 ps against $0.1 for the NYMEX/COMEX gold contract and Japanese yen 1 per gm for the TOCOM’s gold contract.

Against NYMEX / Comex gold futures contract for example of 5,000 troy oz, and 60 kg for TOCOM’s gold futures, the contract size for both NCDEX and MCX is 100 gm each while it is 5 kg and 10 kg respectively for silver.Also, Mumbai will be the delivery centre for gold for both NCDEX and MCX while it will be Delhi for NCDEX.

[sebastianus]

@ThaiGuru #6248 #6251 #6252

USA-Importpreise von May 2001 - May 2002 = -3.7 %
USA-Importpreise von May 2002 - May 2003 = +1.5 %

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ximpim.pdf

Also wie man aus obigen Zahlen ein [b)annual rate[/b] von 32 % errechnet, ist mir nicht geläufig. Aber es macht nichts, ich will es gar nicht mehr wissen. Denn wir sind uns einig : Silber und Silberexplorer sind ein gutes Investment.

Grüsse - Sebastianus

[hpoth]

Ja, das sehe ich auch so, man brauch eben Geduld.Im Silber
sind jederzeit große Überraschungen möglich.gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@sebastianus

#6254

Möchte es Dir jetzt trotzdem nochmals erklären!

Wenn es Dir nur nicht ganz klar sein sollte was Alexander B. Korelin mit seinem Bericht angesprochen hat, solltest Du den englischen Text besser übersetzen, und seine Angaben etwas genauer prüfen, Du kannst auch beim Autor direkt anfragen, bevor Du was darüber postest.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/korelin/korelin063003.html

Von Deinen beiden Jahres Zahlen steht im Artikel von Korelin doch gar nichts drin. Auch wenn Du sie noch ein 3. Mal posten solltest. Woher Du die Erkenntnis nimmst, zu behaupten, dass es sich nur um eine "Schock-Hypothese" des Autors handeln solle, ist mir ein Rätsel. Es war im Gegenteil eine "schockierende Tatsache" die der Autor zur Sprache brachte, um damit aufzuzeigen, wie schönfärberisch die amerikanische Wirtschaftspresse mit solchen Zahlen umgeht, und sie den Anlegern quasi noch als eine Verbesserung verkauft.

Die Rechnung die Du anscheinend nicht verstehen kannst, ist eigentlich auch nicht schwer nachzuvollziehen.

Im April 2003 sind die Importpreise um 3% gefallen, das ergibt rechnerisch sogar mehr als 32% Jahresrate (annual rate)

Im April 2003 hat der Producer Price Index für fertige Güter einen Rekord aufgestellt, und um 1.9% gefallen, das ergibt rechnerisch die von Alexander Korelin gemachte Jahresrate von fast 23%

Und das 3. Beispiel von Korelin war der erwähnte erstmalige Fall im Konsumentenpreisindex seit 2001, bei der tiefsten offiziellen (core)Inflationsrate seit fast 37 Jahren.

Steht alles zum Nachlesen auf: http://stats.bls.gov



Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

June 30, 2003 (usagold.com)

NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $345.90 an ounce up $1.00 an ounce from Friday’s close. What was clear this quarter is that gold was behaving much more like a currency than a commodity," said Erik Gebhard, president of Altavest Worldwide Trading. "The expectation of another Fed rate cut, a constant stream of murky economic data, currency rate fluctuations, the daily gyrations of the equity and treasury markets ... were the fuel that drove gold sentiment," he said. "The dollar is testing key levels," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group of Monday`s action. "If it takes out last week`s highs, look for gold to test the $340 area," he said. “It is the physical demand that supports the price, and, luckily, in this long-term bull market in gold, the level at which physical demand comes into play keeps rising and rising to ever higher levels,” said Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management. “I believe that the declines we have experienced are just about over at present. Yes, we could certainly decline to perhaps $338 in some speculative technically driven decline, but I would believe that we will rebound rather quickly. Although I do not look for a rapid upsurge as the market has been pummeled, I think we go higher from here,” he added.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $346.00 an ounce, up from $345.15 an ounce at the morning fixing. Book squaring for the end of the second quarter was seen dominating Monday`s activity, with bullion seen under pressure short-term. "Gold has continued to hold the 344 usd level over the course of the day as the latest CFTC data, released Friday, has given the market a boost as it shows the extent of the long liquidation carried out by speculators over last week," said analyst James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com. "A slightly weaker Dollar overnight also gave the yellow metal some added support, especially with inflation in Europe being seen for the first time in four months, which boosted the Euro up to 1.1460 from 1.1430," added Moore. Talks this week among some Islamic nations may have some "implications on the demands for gold over the coming months," said Moore. The nations will discuss the practicality of a gold-based dinar in a bid to move away from U.S. dollar dependency, Moore said. The dinar is used in several Islamic nations. Analyst Kevin Crisp of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said: "The market is extremely quiet today on the last day of the month." He said TOCOM and Asian trade have seen "one of the quietest days for weeks," he added. "I think today provides an opportunity for participants to look ahead to the second half of the year, and the outlook is still pretty uncertain," he said, in reference to somewhat cloudy prospects for US economic recovery. "An economic pick-up is likely, but the question is at what pace. Will it be modest growth, as we believe, or a much stronger recovery?" he asked.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold rose $2.00 in Hong Kong to $345.45. "Basically, I think physical demand is supporting the market," said Ellison Chu, senior manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. "At the moment, we don`t see anything new to stimulate the market to move. I think it will be confined in a range of $342 to around $348," he said. Some believe that gold will have limited gains for the near term while under the weight of its massive long position. "Although this position has declined, it is still large enough to limit gains," NM Rothschild said in a daily report out of Sydney. "In addition, funds may well be refocusing on equities that have had their best quarter since 1998. This and a renewed strength in the U.S. dollar will weigh on gold this week," it said. On the other hand, Macquarie Bank said in its weekly market report that gold could slip and test support around its 200-day average of $339. But the bank added that "overall, we aren`t convinced by either the U.S. dollar or equity market recovery, and hence expect gold to recover."

The dollar faces considerable sales from Japanese exporters around and above 120 yen, which could cap it for a few days, dealers said. "There is no change in the dollar`s bull trend," said Kenji Kobayashi, manager of the foreign exchange and treasury division at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "But I don`t expect it to decisively break above 120 yen because of exporters." However, Mr. Kobayashi’s “dollar bull trend” may have more to do with Japanese monetary authority currency market intervention than market fundamentals. The Japanese government will also announce the amount of its intervention during the month to June 26 at 0900 GMT on Monday. Many dealers suspect the Japanese authorities conducted covert intervention on at least several occasions. "The dollar is on reasonably good footing this week against Europe," said Aziz McMahon, currency analyst at ABN Amro. "There is the idea that there is the need for lower rates in Europe whereas for now at least the market is happy to believe U.S. rate have bottomed."


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. forces detained 180 people in raids to stamp out resistance to their occupation in Iraq, the military said on Monday, as local residents reported a huge weekend blast at an arms depot killed at least 30 looters. U.S. forces backed by warplanes and armored vehicles launched an operation Sunday to crack down on armed resistance in areas north of Baghdad where Saddam Hussein once enjoyed wide support. Washington`s top civilian official in Iraq, Paul Bremer, said U.S.-led forces would suffer further casualties until Saddam loyalists were killed or captured. But U.S. army commander Tommy Franks, who led the swift defeat of Iraq`s army, said recent attacks on U.S. troops did not "spoil the victory." Bremer signaled Washington believed Saddam, toppled from power on April 9, may still be alive despite attempts during the Iraq war to kill him in bombing raids based on intelligence.

Fighting between rival factions in northern Afghanistan has flared anew as Britain announced it was sending extra troops to the area to help the country`s transitional government tackle lawlessness.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Business expanded marginally in the U.S. Midwest in June, figures released on Monday showed, suggesting the manufacturing sector is still struggling to find a firm footing. The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago index edged up to 52.5 in June from 52.2 in May. A reading below 50 indicates a contracting regional manufacturing sector, while a reading above 50 signals expansion.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Central bank governors from around the world said on Saturday they expected a slow and sluggish recovery in the global economy. The governors gathering in Switzerland for an annual meeting of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) saw a "gradual sluggish pickup across the world moving into next year," said Bank of England Governor Sir Edward George. "The mood is one of guarded optimism... but with guarded kind of underlined," Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge told reporters after a first discussion session in Basel. Among those attending the meeting were the world`s top monetary policymakers including U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, European Central Bank Governor Wim Duisenberg and his heir-apparent, Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet.

The shortfall between U.S.-owned investments abroad and foreign investments here widened again in 2002, to a record $2.387 trillion, the government said in a report Monday. In its annual report on the nation`s international investment position, the Commerce Department said the gap between U.S. and foreign investments had increased by $407.31 billion from a revised $1.980 trillion seen in 2001. Since 1985, the United States has been a net debtor country, meaning its financial claims and assets in the rest of the world are outweighed by foreigners` investments here.


Comment:

Gold gained on short covering and light Fund buying on this last day “end of quarter” rebalancing of investment portfolios known as “window dressing”, however, gold gave back gains as equities rallied in late trade. The equities gave up gains after the gold pits closed early as they have done since reopening after the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Gold also gained as the U.S. dollar gave back earlier gains against the Euro on weaker than expected U.S. manufacturing data. Also hurting dollar sentiment on the day according to some was the Bank for International Settlement`s warning that the current account pressures on the US are greater than in the 1980s. The soaring current account, trade, and Federal budget deficits will continue to plague the U.S. dollar as these record debt levels are broken everyday with no end in sight.

The “end of quarter” readjustment of investment portfolios has come to an end though portfolio managers will probably continue to make some additional adjustments ahead of the upcoming July 4 holiday weekend. The U.S. economy will have several hurdles to overcome yet as corporate earnings and earnings warnings come due and many will have to evaluate whether the euphoria over the recent equities rallies have been justified. Tomorrow the next hurdle will be the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) data report that should have the attention of equities traders. Still, the bulk of investment tends to be from institutional investor side rather than the individual investor signaling little wide ranging confidence in the economic outlook. The DOW ended the day below 9,000 though the indices had a fairly strong finish in the first half of the year. The question is whether the rally is sustainable given the lack of “follow through” with earnings growth as corporate earnings warnings continue to outpace earnings “surprises”. That said, gold traders will likely begin to focus on the economy as well as the U.S. dollar going forward.

With little positive data in the way to suggest a robust economic rebound or strong economic growth, it is a tough call for equities investors, and even more so for savers with pathetic rates of return, more attention could be steered toward "safe haven" hard assets like precious metals.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.irna.ir/en/head/030630115943.ehe.shtml

Malaysia, Iran in early stage of discussion on the use of gold

Dinar
Kuala Lumpur, June 30, IRNA -- The Malaysian government is discussing
with Iran the possibility of having "bilateral payment arrangements"
to enable Malaysia to use the dinar to settle payments.
Deputy Finance Minister Dr Shafie Mohd Salleh said that it was
still in the early stage of discussion.
"Various issues would have to be taken into consideration,
including the current diplomatic and bilateral relations between
Malaysia and Iran," he told reporters at the parliament lobby here
Thursday.
He said Malaysia is also discussing the matter with a number of
countries from West Asia who may want the same arrangement.
Dr Shafie said that the countries included Bahrain and Egypt.
However, he said that it was also still at the early stage of
discussion as "there are a number of countries in West Asia which use
the US dollar when exporting petroleum."
Dr Shafie said the Iranian government is interested in Malaysia`s
suggestion of using the gold dinar as another means of settling trade
transactions.
He said top officials from Iran had expressed their intention
to use the dinar in their business transactions with Malaysia under
the bilateral payments agreement.
"These officials told me of their intention in December last
year during the Islamic Development Conference in Africa. The meeting
was attended by all the finance ministers of the Islamic nations,"
said Mohd Shafie, who represented Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in
the conference.
The prime minister was quoted as saying recently that Malaysia
planned to set up a secretariat in the country to promote the idea of
using the gold dinar by central banks of other Muslim countries.
Dr Mahathir, a big supporter of the subject of reviving the gold
dinar, believes that this would help in containing the dominance of
the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in economic
and financial affairs of the Muslim world.
independent and sovereign nation,"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We do not care about the dictates of the IMF as we are an
independent and sovereign nation," Dr Mahathir had said proudly,
adding that the Muslim world possessed plenty of wealth which was not
being invested in productive trade and economic activities.
eliminate the bias of the dollar."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"I was pleading for the `gold dinar` among the Muslim states to
eliminate the bias of the dollar."
The country was proposing the gold dinar to strengthen, specially
the weak economies of certain Islamic countries, on the pattern of
the euro, Mahathir emphasized, while arguing that if Europe can take
care of its countries, "why can`t we follow the same pattern?"
The gold dinar had been the currency of the Muslim world until
the collapse of the Ottoman empire in 1924. Being the single currency
at that time, the dinar helped in uniting Muslims in trade and, as
a result, trade flourished. "Thus, a vast Muslim rule was established
with the power of knowledge, economy and global power resting
with the Muslims."
Malaysia, which pegged its currency to the US dollar (US$1:3.8
ringgit) in 1997 following the onset of the Asian financial crisis,
has confirmed that it has no plans to delink or re-peg its currency
from and to the US dollar.
Dr Shafie also confirmed that the Malaysian dollar (the ringgit)
will continue to be pegged to the US dollar. in the euro and the yen. But people are still not confident enough in
these currencies."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We would like to trade
in the euro and the yen. But people are still not confident enough in
these currencies."
He said that a change to other currency would only be beneficial
if both dealings are conducted in various currencies.
"For Malaysia, 85 percent of trade settlement and 77 percent of
foreign debts are made in the US dollar," he said.
He made the statement as many parties wanted the government to
consider changing the peg to other currencies like the euro due to
the softer US dollar.
Shafie said that the pegging of the ringgit to the US dollar
provided more stablility as the latter is more predictable.
He said that the fall in the value of the US dollar has made a
positive effect on the country`s economy as it has increased the
competiveness of the country `s export products compared with other
products in international markets.
BN/LS/YS
End

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4685737&act…

Breaking news

(AFX-Focus) 2003-06-30 21:58 GMT: Gold market closes with a hefty gain for the quarter - UPDATE 4

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures closed out the second quarter up more than $10 an ounce, and metals indexes ended higher by 18 percent or more from the first quarter. Gold for August delivery closed Monday at $346.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 80 cents on the session, and up $10.40 an ounce on the quarter.

Traders have been focused on the economy and watching movements in the U.S. dollar. "What was clear this quarter is that gold was behaving much more like a currency than a commodity," said Erik Gebhard, president of Altavest Worldwide Trading. "The expectation of another Fed rate cut, a constant stream of murky economic data, currency rate fluctuations, the daily gyrations of the equity and treasury markets ... were the fuel that drove gold sentiment," he said. In foreign-exchange trading, the dollar rose against the yen and Canadian dollar, but weakened against the euro.

Foreign traders pay close attention to fluctuations in the greenback since they must swap out of their local currencies to buy dollar-denominated gold on U.S. markets. Also, gold is sometimes seen as a currency itself that competes with the dollar for investor favor.
"The dollar is testing key levels," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group of Monday`s action. "If it takes out last week`s highs, look for gold to test the $340 area." Talks this week among some Islamic nations may have some "implications on the demands for gold over the coming months," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

The nations will discuss the practicality of a gold-based dinar in a bid to move away from U.S. dollar dependency, Moore said. The dinar is used in several Islamic nations. Economic data released early Monday was upbeat, but failed to seriously dent gold`s gains. Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region expanded for the second month in a row in June, the Chicago Purchasing Managers said Monday. U.S. stocks closed little changed. Metals indexes up on quarter Tracking the sector as a whole, major metals and mining indexes closed up 18 percent or more from the levels seen at the end of the first quarter. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed at 78.65, up 01.4 percent. The index closed out last quarter at 66.92 so that`s a nearly 18 percent gain. The CBOE Gold Index closed at 65.17, up 1.8 percent on the session and up 18.5 percent from the close in the first quarter. And the Amex Gold Bugs Index gained 1.7 percent to 148.96, up 20 percent from the end of the previous quarter. Among the sector`s bigger gainers, Meridian Gold closed at $11.49, up 33 cents or 3 percent, Anglogold added 84 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $31.90, and Barrick Gold tacked on 30 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $17.90.

Citigroup starts coverage of Freeport Citigroup Smith Barney initiated coverage on Freeport Copper & Gold with an "in-line, high risk" rating and a price target of $28 a share. Citigroup Smith Barney analyst John Hill believes Freeport "holds the industry`s most compelling asset and presents a unique combination of commodity leverage, free cash flow and internal catalysts." The company is "entering its free cash flow `sweet spot` as debt service and capex (capital expenditures) ease, heading into likely cyclical copper recovery in 2004 to 2005," he told clients. Freeport shares closed up 33 cents at $24.50. Silver climbs On Nymex, July silver closed at $4.557 an ounce, up 5.2 cents. "Even though gold has had a disastrous few weeks, even though copper prices have declined mightily, silver remains rather firm at recent price levels," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management wrote in a note Monday. Large traders continue to be "rather good buyers," and some "`quality` buying" has been seen from some long-term investment concerns, while some "`gunslinger` commodity funds continue their maniacal methods and keep piling on the short side of this market," he wrote.

On the supply end, gold inventories stood at 2.58 million troy ounces late Friday, up 31,817 troy ounces from the previous session. Silver inventories fell 240,785 troy ounces to 107.2 million troy ounces. Copper stocks fell 182 short tons to 321,200 short tons. Elsewhere, the July copper contract closed down 0.85 cent at 74.8 cents a pound -- off the session`s low of 74.35. July platinum fell by $2.60 to $670.60 an ounce, while September palladium closed at $181.35 an ounce, up $4.85.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.


The pricing, performance and/or news information provided above is only for your personal information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements or to be relied upon in making (or refraining from making) any specific investment or other decisions. Interactive Investor Trading Limited and its Data Providers do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided above. Such information shall not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by us. Where you are unsure about any matters raised by the above information you should obtain appropriate expert independent advice.

UK equity prices and indices are delayed by 15 minutes and US equity prices are delayed by 20 minutes. Fund prices are updated each business day normally by 10pm and fund performance data is updated at the start of each week normally at the end of the following Wednesday. Past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to its performance in the future. The value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up. You may not necessarily get back the amount you invested.

[ThaiGuru]

June 30 - Gold $345.90 up $1 - Silver $4.55 up 5 cents

Gold Shares Continue To Shine

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight, it`s the size of the fight in the dog." --Dwight D. Eisenhower

Gold continues to make a bottom after the recent mauling by the cabal. The chart is an unusual one. It resembles a megaphone formation:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

The former flag formation has amorphed to one in which the downtrend line is intact at the tops of the formation and the support downtrend line along the bottoms is intact also. Funny enough, I have never used the megaphone terminology before (or even heard of it) and yet I notice Daan Joubert also used the term in his piece at The Little Bear Table.

In the bigger picture, the long-term gold chart has put in a massive rounding bottom formation.

At one point during the Comex session, gold was $3 higher, but the cabal couldn’t allow gold to move up sharply at the end of a quarter. No siree. That’s against their rules, so long as they have partial control over the casino. Thus, gold’s early rally petered out. Actually, it is very normal for gold to do this kind of "work" after a battering like it took last week, but not in the manner it is doing it.

Most gold commentary continues to grate and is simply wrong. Most of tomorrow’s commentary will say that gold closed higher because the dollar fell. WRONG! The dollar was higher this morning when gold shot up close to $3. As GOLD ROSE, the dollar began to weaken and stayed weak for the rest of the trading session and closed near its lows at 95.11, while GOLD FELL.

The commentary should read like this:

Gold’s early $3 rally was crushed by the crooks in The Gold Cartel, even as the dollar slumped sharply from early highs, in order that their massive short gold holdings be priced as low as possible at the end of the quarter.

Soon after writing that down down for MIDAS, this email came in:

For some time now I have been checking the 24 hour gold chart (Kitco). I took a printout of it every day and I can put one over the previous day`s result and they are almost identical. As soon as London closes and New York is the only exchange open the price drops straight down .

When & how do we find these crooked manipulators and restrict them from trading and put them in the penitentiary where they belong.

Connie

Connie is right. They should be locked up. Markets go down, like the go up. No big deal. The problem is that gold has traded in a controlled fashion for over half a decade. It does not trade naturally, which is exactly how I first discovered the market was manipulated nearly five years ago. Today was a perfect example in the micro sense of what is wrong. Gold traded exactly the way it did yesterday (taken down at the same time), even though the dollar continue to fall from 95.70 to 95.10.

The outlook for the price of gold for the rest of the summer could not look better, however. The Gold Cartel is in big trouble.

The US stock market is trading at staggering heights with P/E ratios running around 34. The bond market corrected upwards today after last week’s battering, but remains very vulnerable to further declines due to the potential of foreigners bailing out. The dollar’s rally has been very flimsy and feels like it could tank at any time. The real estate market is a bubble in the US if there ever was one. Money market yields offer about a half percent return.

Not a pleasant scenario for US investors, that is unless they focus on gold and invest in the sector. The gold fundamentals have never been more positive in aggregate in all its investment history. Only the desperate antics of The Gold Cartel has kept the price from soaring way above $400. It is only a matter of time before they lose control of their rigging operations, are overpowered by global demand for gold and are carried out on the stretcher the GATA camp keeps referring to.

GATA’s man in Italy, David Champeau, was kind enough to translate Ferdi Lip’s Italian interview:

Protecting Your Portfolio with Gold

Edited by Francesco D`Arco
Editorial staff Bluerating.com

"The price of gold is manipulated by governments. The Bush administration
has ignored a document that demonstrates the risk of a banking crisis and if
we do not return to the gold standard we will not avoid the risk of
inflation. And much less risk deflation." These are some of the theories of
Ferdinand Lips in his book Gold Wars. Mr. Lips is a private Swiss banker, a
non-executive director of Randgold Resources Limited and of The Afrikaner
Lease Limited. He manages a precious metals fund (www.topgoldinvest.com) and
in an interview released to Bluerating.com he explains why it is important
to have a portion of one`s portfolio, 10 to 15%, invested in gold.

Q: Why did you select the title of "Gold Wars" for your book?"

A: I chose the title "Gold Wars" because the central banks, and in
particular the US Federal Reserve, with the help of some of the Wall Street
banks, since 1984 have tried to hold down the price of gold. They are still
manipulating it today.

Q: What do you mean when you say, "manipulating the price of gold"?

A: When you speak of the price of gold you have to realize that it`s a
"political metal." In this sense therefore the price can be considered
"governed". Gold is incompatible with the modern financial system. Before
August 15, 1971 there was never a period of time in history in which no
value was tied to the precious metal. In all other historical periods people
could always escape to currency protected by gold. Since 1971, this "escape
hatch" has not been possible.
The whole economy, monetary and financial, for the last 30 years is a direct
consequence of this. The only event that can change this situation is the
rapid increase in the price of gold in dollars.
At the beginning of the Bush administration, GATA, a private investigative
organization, showed to members of the US Congress research that demonstrated
the risk of a banking crisis as a consequence of this situation. President
Bush has seen the document, but no one has seriously considered the argument
and they have gone forward with their politics as if no risks existed.

Q: After the Washington Agreement in 1999 the central banks, who were in the
process of liquidating part of their gold reserves, agreed not to sell more
than 2000 tonnes of gold in 5 years, losing part of their influence on the
gold market. The treaty will expire in September 2004. How do you think it
should be modified? What benefits has it brought to the gold market?

A: The Washington Agreement was realized as a consequence of the European
central banks not wanting to see the price of gold fall too much, in other
words they did not want to see the value of their reserves fall.

Some reliable sources maintain that, if the agreement is not renewed, it
will represent an "official" sell of gold. The same sources exclude the
possibility of a renewal at a higher level than before. The purpose is the
increase the price of gold in an orderly fashion. So far the Washington
Agreement has obtained the proposed results.

Q: In the last few years some funds have invested part of their asset
allocation in gold. In general, the maximum exposure has been equal to 5%.
Is this a correct percentage or should this exposure be increased?

A: For the US stock market, as well as in Europe, I see a long bear market,
probably more than 10 years. It will repeat the situation more of less
analogous to the experience seen in Japan. Surely there will be occasional
rallies but to better protect your portfolio, everyone should have between
10 and 15% positioned in gold investments.

Q: What do you see for the future of the gold industry? Are we at the
beginning of a period of strong growth or are there factors that could stop
the demand of the precious metal?

A: This period is similar to the 70s, when the stock markets were in a bear
market and there was an on-going war. During these years there was a strong
investment demand in gold because the savers did not trust the stock markets
and were looking to protect their savings from inflation. There are now
investors that are demanding gold in Japan and India, but in the west the
demand is low.
The price of gold has recovered from the low-level reached two years ago
(252 dollars). In the last few years there has been a certain consolidation
of the global gold industry, that has concealed the stagnation seen. Now
however the industry has urgent needs of new discoveries. For this reason
they must point to areas that have prospects ma that are not yet tapped.

Q: According to you, what are the advantages of a growth in the gold
industry? In your book you speak of the capacity of the precious metal to
stop inflation. How so?

A: The actual monetary order is a fraud. It punishes the workers and the
pensioners. It is destroying the middle class. Now inflation is not the
biggest problem but rather it is deflation.
To avoid both, the world must return to a gold standard. The gold standard
is the only "honest money." It can restart the world economy at the maximum
of its potential guaranteeing the savings and increasing the level of
investment. Furthermore, during times of a gold standard, historically there
are fewer wars.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[sebastianus]

@ThaiGuru #6248 und weitere

Ich danke Dir für die Geduld, die Du mir entgegen bringst.

Quelle : United States Department of Labor - News May 2003
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ximpim.pdf

USA-Importpreise von May 2001 - May 2002 = -3.7 %
USA-Importpreise von May 2002 - May 2003 = +1.5 %
mit anderen Worten : für die letzten 12 Monate insgesamt +1.5 % Teuerung !!!

Jetzt hast Du mich aufgeklärt, wie man auf moderne Art dies völlig anders rechnen kann :
Man nehme den April mit -3% (in diesem einem Monat sind nämlich die Import-Ölpreise 18 % gesunken sind), rechne dies hoch und ist hurra bei einer Jahresrate von -32 %.

Und hätte Dein Korelin die -18 % beim Öl im April hochgerechnet, (12 x -18 % = -200 %)
dann müssten jetzt die Arabs für jedes Fass Öl, dass die USA nehmen, denen eine Abnahme-Prämie von $ 30,-- bezahlen.
Auf diese Weise haben die USA genügend ÖL und sind bald schuldenfrei.

Korelin die Rechengenie als Retter der USA :-)

Erfreulicherweise sind wir uns da einig : Silber und Silberexplorer sind ein gutes Investment.

Grüsse - Sebastianus

[ThaiGuru]

@sebastianus

...und wenn sie nicht gestorben sind, dann leben sie noch lange.

Alles klar!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW and DOG seemed very tired, as they closed slightly lower in spite of the last minute, end of the quarter window dressing. They could be bombed at any time.

While the Wall Street bullish stock market pundits focus on the millions made in the coming earnings reports, it is the shortfall of BILLIONS that tells the real financial story:

Calif. Near Financial Disaster
Hours Remain to Solve $38 Billion Shortfall

By Rene Sanchez
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, June 30, 2003; Page A01

LOS ANGELES -- Any day now, community colleges here may begin telling faculty members that they cannot be paid and students that summer classes are canceled.

Nursing homes are losing so much state aid that many soon may have to shut down or limit their services, a prospect that has elderly residents confused and frightened.

As many as 30,000 government workers who had been expecting pay raises in the fall are instead receiving formal notices warning that they could lose their jobs by then, because the state is broke.

This is life in California, on the brink of a fiscal disaster.

The nation`s most populous state, home to one of the world`s largest economies, has been staring in disbelief at the same dire predicament for months: a $38 billion deficit, the largest shortfall in its history and an extreme example of the budget woes afflicting many states. But now it has only hours left to solve the problem.

State lawmakers have until midnight to reach a compromise with Gov. Gray Davis (D) on a budget that would wipe out the enormous deficit, but the odds of that happening appear slim. And without a deal, the state will be bound by law to begin cutting off billions of dollars in payments to its agencies and its contractors in July -- and could run out of money by August.

"It looks bleak," said Perry Kenny, president of the California State Employees Association, which represents more than 100,000 government workers.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"This is the biggest hole we`ve ever been in, and no one can seem to find a way out. We`re all sweating bullets here."

-END-

The US employment picture is not going to improve as many of the States are forced to layoff workers to meet mandated balanced budgets.

Oil ran up once more, closing at $30.19, up 92 cents per barrel. The reason:

Nigerian strike threatens oil supplies

Prices rise as wary traders watch unfolding strike, global oil flows

June 30, 2003: 11:09 AM EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose Monday following a nationwide strike in Nigeria that could threaten crude supplies from the world`s eighth-biggest exporter.

Traders are nervous that any supply disruption could bite into fragile global energy stocks, especially as Iraqi crude has yet to make any substantial return to international markets since exports were halted ahead of the U.S.-led war.

"In the light of continuing bad news from Iraq, Nigeria is just adding to the whole series of factors that will support prices this week," said Paul Horsnell, analyst at JP Morgan.

-END-

Oil continues to find its way above $30 per barrel for one reason or another. The war has been over supposedly for two months. The low oil price/virtual tax reduction for the consumer this summer is not to be.

If the Japanese ever unload US bonds, Oh Boy!:

Japanese Bonds Fall on Speculation Banks Will Reduce Holdings

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese bonds fell, extending their biggest two-week decline in four years, on analyst speculation banks will trim their debt holdings as the second quarter ends today and before a 10-year debt auction Thursday.

Ten-year bonds have returned a 0.4 percent loss, including reinvested income, since March 31, according to Bloomberg data. On June 11, when yields touched a record low, investors had a gain of as much as 2.6 percent for the quarter. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and other city banks, among the largest owners of government debt, compile quarterly financial reports.

``Banks are trying to reduce their holdings of longer debt to limit or prevent losses,`` said Akihiko Yokoyama, a fixed income strategist at JP Morgan Securities Asia Ltd., one of the 24 banks and securities companies invited to discuss bond sales with the Ministry of Finance. ``It`s hard to predict demand at the auction after the plunge, also helping push yields up.`` –END-

Chuck checked in over the weekend:

Bill:

I really don`t have much to add to a view of the markets. You should take a look at: http://www.institutionaladvisors.com. I am very impressed with their work.

Bill, I am as certain of anything in my life (except when I first believed in Jesus) that the tide has totally turned and nothing but unthinkable economic events now await us. The sentiment indicators are so far off the charts even exceeding the levels of 1987 and early 2000, that one can only conclude that a reversal of all of the bubbles are at hand. I still hold that we are facing a panic and increasingly more possibly a financial one.

Although we might have some kind of sympathetic reaction in gold or the shares, I see this as very unlikely since they would not be holding up this well with important breakouts in Newmont and Freeport as well as many of the advanced juniors moving up to their old highs. The longer the dollar strengthens without busting them down, the more likely they are perched to blow out here. If you remember last year at this time as the dollar continued to weaken, gold and shares did not benefit and set up a divergence. The next month many of them collapsed as the dollar rallied. I see the current strengthening of the dollar without an accompanying decline in the shares as a positive divergence setting up the next upward move.

It is interesting to note that almost to the day that the dollar bottomed, there was a marked increase in put buying in the gold options. It has continued unbroken. I believe that this is contrary indicator as is the very probable increase in the short interest in the golds such as Newmont. There is a lot of skepticism out there and that is the best atmosphere for gold to move.

Next week promises to be very interesting, but I have been saying that for 6 or 7 months. Chuck

Not much was made of:

Barrick Gold Files $1 Billion Debt Securities Shelf

Seems very strange to me.

President Bush will be in Africa this week spouting off how he would like to help with the terrible chronic disease/HIV plight of the poor in sub-Saharan Africa. What a phony this guy is – no different than President Clinton in this regard. The two of them are the ones most responsible for making sure the gold price does not rise to its proper equilibrium level – a level which is much higher than today. If that were ALLOWED to be, the economies of the sub-Saharan gold producing countries would be greatly stimulated and there would be a great deal more funds to fight this tragedy.

Just as important, the stimulation would give some of the poor kids over there hopes they could get jobs and they would not be so inclined to engage in activities so ruinous to their health. The key operative word is hope. There is very little of that for so many of them right now.

On that score, Chris Powell received this email earlier:

Hi Chris,

I just wanted to say keep up the good work you and GATA are doing. For some time now I have wondered what is going on with Gold prices and after being pointed to your web site, I finally got the answers. The articles I read on your web site were very informative and it certainly seems like GATA has some excellent resources.

We here in South Africa greatly appreciate what GATA has said in the defence of Africa as a whole. The cost in human life and poverty that these greedy bankers have inflicted on Africa will never really be known. You can bet I will be telling people of your sterling efforts.

All the best in your struggle

Kevin Adair

The gold shares continue to shine. The XAU rose 1.10 to 78.64, but the more important HUI climbed 2.95. to 149.45. It is bouncing off support in the mid to high 140`s. More and more NEW investors are seeing what the Café sees about what is coming to the investment world. They are slowly recognizing how bullish the gold fundamentals are and want in. Thus, they are quietly stepping up to the plate. It won’t be long before the HUI takes out its high of 157.82, leading the way for gold to take out key resistance at $370.

HUI:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Der Goldpreis scheint`s den Goldminen heute nachzumachen?



Der Dollar:

[tamara93]

wemm das so weitergeht, sind wir heute Abend bei 360

[bluemoons]

http://www.goldseiten.de/ansichten/bogner-03.htm

[ThaiGuru]

Mensch Meier, hab ich gerade einen Schreck gekriegt!

Fällt doch der Commdirect Goldchart in 2 Minuten wieder um 5.- Dollar runter. Die Ansicht des INO Goldcharts hat mir dann gezeigt, dass es sich mal wieder einmal mehr nur um eine grössere "nervöse Zuckung" im Commdirect Chart gehandelt hatte.

Minuten später zeigt auch dieser Chart fast wieder den "echten" Schlusskurs in den USA von 351.30 Dollar an. Die Frage ist jetzt nur noch:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Was ist eigentlich der "echte" Goldkurs!

Bekannlich sind ja Abweichungen in den Gold Charts verschiedenster Quellen fast an der Tagesordnung.
Dass der "echte" Goldpreis, aufgrund von (Luft) Papier Goldhandel an der Comex ausgehandelt wird, ist für mich wenigstens, auch nicht unbedingt ein realitätsnahes Preisbestimmungsverfahren.

Wie auch immer, die 351.- Dollar Marke wurde heute wieder überwunden, darin scheinen sich schlussendlich die drei Goldcharts Quellen einig zu sein.

Die Gold Minen Aktien scheinen es wenigstens auch so zu sehen, und steigen!

Bema Gold hatte heute schon mal die 1.40 Dollar angetestet, z.Z. 1.38. Bei Durban scheinen die Lohnverhandlungen nicht mehr unlösbar zu sein, und DROOY steigt heute dafür gleich um über 6,3% an. Caledonia Mining macht auch wieder Freude, 0.22 A Dollar, plus 10%. Auch der Silber Explorer MacMin rappelt sich langsam aber sicher, bereits schon seit Tagen wieder hoch, und steht heute auf 0.082 australischen Dollars, plus 7.89.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4687025&act…

Breaking news

(AFX-Focus) 2003-07-01 19:10 GMT: Gold closes above $350 for the first time in a week

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- August gold rose $5.40 to close at $351.70 an ounce, ending the New York trading session at its highest level since June 23. Metals shares are higher, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index logging gains of around 2 percent. Shares of Meridian Gold are still among the biggest gainers, up 5.4 percent at $12.11. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-2217494.…

Goldpreis wieder über $350

Das erste Mal seit einer Woche konnte der Goldpreis in New York über der Marke von $350 schließen. Der Preis stieg um $5.40 auf $351.30 – das ist der höchste Schlusskurs seit dem 23. Juni. Grund für die Stärke des Goldpreises seien Händlern zufolge die schwachen Wirtschaftsdaten, Kapitalströme aus dem zuletzt schwachen Aktienmarkt und ein zuletzt wieder schwächerer Dollar.

© BörseGo

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.vwd.de/vwd/news.htm?id=20563582&navi=news&sektion…

Schweiz/SNB bewertet Goldreseven neu

Zürich (vwd) - Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) hat ihre Goldreserven neu bewertet und damit auf den gestiegenen Weltmarktpreis des Edelmetalls reagiert.

Wie die SNB am Dienstag in ihrem aktuellen Ausweis mitteilte, erhöhte sich ihre Goldposition gegenüber dem Ausweis vom 20. Juni 2003 um 715,9 Mio CHF. Seit Ende des ersten Quartal 2002 ist der Preis für ein Kilogramm Gold auf 15.048 CHF von 14.642 CHF gestiegen. Die Ausweisposition Devisenanlagen erhöhte sich zum überwiegenden Teil aufgrund von Bewertungsgewinnen um 3,215 Mrd CHF, was die SNB mit dem im Vergleich zum Vorquartal deutlich höheren Kurs des Euro erklärte.

vwd/AWP/1.7.2003/hab/ptr

01.07.2003, 11:15

[ThaiGuru]

Die Chart Spezialisten von Godmode-Trader wurden heute, wie so oft schon, von der Gold Realität voll auf dem falschen Fuss erwischt!

Gestern hat Godmode doch noch vollmundig verkündet:

SELL TRIGGER AUSGELOEST!!!

30.06. 18:04


GOLD - Kurzfristiger SELL Trigger mit ...

... einem Kursziel von ca. 337,5 US $ ausgelöst.

Goldpreis pro Unze aktuell 347,3 US $.

Aktueller Tageschart als Update.

©GodmodeTrader - http://62.146.24.165/news.php?show=123904

Der kurzfristige SELL Trigger bei 351 US $ wurde unterschritten. Dadurch wurde ein kurzfristiges charttechnisches Kursziel von 340 US $, 337,5 US $, 337 und anschließend sogar bis zu 335 US $ getriggert.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 1, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $351.30 an ounce up $5.40 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold surged higher on a weaker U.S. dollar due to grim economic data suggesting serious doubts about a U.S. economic recovery. "The focus this week was going to be on economic releases to get some sort of better ideas of what it might portend for interest rate differentials," said David Rinehimer, head of futures research at Citigroup Global Markets. "It`s more of a dollar story, still," he said. "Without a geopolitical factor supporting safe-haven demand, I`m hard pressed to see gold getting above $380 or so," Rinehimer said. "I don`t think the dollar is going to weaken that much." However, others take another view. The fundamentals for the precious metal are "extremely positive" and "able to support a considerably higher gold price than we originally thought," Mike Jalonen, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, wrote in a new report. Jalonen cited expectations of prolonged weakness in the U.S. dollar over the next 18 months. Other factors include declining mine supply, stable central banks sales and continued de-hedging among producers. The Federal Reserve "still may have more work in store to combat deflationary pressures," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. "Another rate cut would devalue the dollar, further thus making gold an attractive purchase from a foreign currency standpoint," he said. Person added that gold prices now have the chance to climb back to the $360 level" not only as measure of a currency value play, but also from a standpoint that the U.S. economy is not out of the woods so players may be lining up to purchase gold in case the stock market makes a seasonal sell-off from this level."

"Coming into this week people were pretty optimistic about the U.S. economy as the recovery was showing more stability. But I think numbers like these show it is still a tentative rebound and that puts pressure on the dollar," said Lauren Germain, currency strategist at Bank of America in New York. "The European numbers were also bad this morning. But keep in mind the economic growth differential is not necessarily a negative for the euro because if the U.S. starts recovering the trade deficit grows and that puts continued selling on the dollar as it aggravates the U.S. trade imbalance," added Germain. The U.S. trade deficit stands at more than 5 percent of gross domestic product, a level consistent with historical patterns showing that a currency tends to weaken when its deficit rises to that level.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $350.20 an ounce, up from $348.55 an ounce at the morning fixing. "The market seems technically driven within a range -- there doesn`t seem to be any producer activity. Good support was seen around the 340.00 area and people felt it was not likely to penetrate below that," said Peter Hillyard, head of European sales at ANZ Investment Bank. "The area between $348.00 and $352.00 broadly speaking is an area we`re going to have to plough through if the market is going to sustain this rally -- we`re in that kind of mire now...and I think its range bound with the U.S. (Independence Day) holiday on Friday," he added. Alan Williamson, an analyst with HSBC, said gold could see further gains if the dollar weakened further against the euro, looking to a gold price at $363 with the euro/dollar at $1.175.

"Looking at the bigger technical picture, the recent weakness in gold is seen as a corrective move in bullish long term chart pattern with a base expected to form between $345.00-$335.00 over the summer," Standard Bank London said in a daily report. "Also the softer tone in the dollar and US. equities will be plus for gold, although the typical summer slowdown in the physical gold markets of the Middle East and Indian sub-Continent may see the short-term downtrend resumed during July and August," Standard Bank said. "A recovery through the band of resistance located between $355.00 and $360.00 could be a signal for a return to $375.00 later in the year," it added.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold advanced in Asia on Tuesday as the yen flexed its muscles against the dollar after a widely watched Bank of Japan survey showed a surprising improvement in corporate sentiment. The BOJ`s key diffusion index of sentiment at large manufacturers in its quarterly "tankan" business survey defied analysts` expectations, boosting the yen and making dollar-priced gold cheaper for Japanese buyers. The Hong Kong market was closed for the sixth anniversary of the territory`s return to China. "We expect downward pressure in the short term as the market tests for genuine support but, overall, we are not convinced by either the US dollar or equity market recovery and hence expect gold to recover," Maquarie Investment Bank`s Kamal Naqvi said in his weekly report.


THE U.S. DOLLAR:

After hitting multi-month highs against the euro and the yen early Monday, the dollar began its slide following a June Chicago Purchasing Managers` Index reading that marked a slight improvement from May, but not enough to reassure investors that a full-speed recovery was yet underway. "The problem at the moment is that the entire dollar rally was based on the premise of rising optimism in U.S. growth, and now we`ve come to a point where the data needs to back that view," said Shahab Jalinoos, a currency strategist with UBS Warburg in London. "If we don`t have that, the path of least resistance is for a stronger euro [against the] dollar."

The U.S. dollar continued to weaken driving gold higher in Asia and during early trade in Europe, topping the 1.15-dollar level after the afternoon publication of the key Chicago purchasing manager index (PMI) of regional manufacturing activity, which showed a disappointingly small gain, analysts said. "That is basically the story," said Divyang Shah, global strategist at IDEAglobal. "This is slightly disappointing," said Ian Shepherdson, US economist at High Frequency Economics. The data release helped spark a modest rise in European government bonds, which in turn drove the single currency higher, Shah said.

Also hurting dollar sentiment on the day was the Bank for International Settlement`s earlier warning that current account pressures on the US are, if anything, greater than in the 1980s, Aziz McMahon, strategist at ABN Amro, said. Earlier McMahon said the dollar needed to have convincingly broken through resistance at 1.14 to the euro in order to have brought in "real money" players, not just speculators. Shah cautioned, however, that the market could remain volatile for the rest of the week as it digests the national Institute of Supply Management`s June manufacturing PMI, due out Tuesday, and Thursday`s June US employment report.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Thousands of Iraqis chanted anti-American slogans on Tuesday as they buried victims of an overnight blast that damaged a mosque -- despite U.S. insistence that its forces had nothing to do with the explosion. Local people in the already restive town of Falluja, a hotbed of Sunni Muslim anti-U.S. sentiment since the fall of Saddam Hussein, said the blast killed eight people, including clerics, and was the result of an American air attack. Another source claimed that a building next to the mosque was used to hide explosives.

A U.S. military vehicle blew up in central Baghdad on Tuesday, and one witness said U.S. troops pulled four badly wounded soldiers from the burning car. The armored car exploded near al-Mustansiriyah University in the heart of the capital. The cause of the blast was not immediately clear. Some witnesses said the Iraqi car blew up next to the U.S. vehicle while others said a rocket-propelled grenade was used in the attack. Earlier in the day, a U.S. soldier was lightly wounded when a military convoy was attacked by a rocket-propelled grenade near Baghdad airport, the U.S. military said.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to Hong Kong`s streets on Tuesday to denounce the government and its planned anti-subversion law in the city`s biggest demonstration since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. "Return rule to the people," they chanted as the rally began to denounce the bill which critics say will impose Beijing-style control over free speech and the media. Brandishing banners, umbrellas and fans, many wore black on a sweltering day to mourn what they said was the demise of rights and freedoms in one of the world`s key financial centers.Earlier, a group of protesters burned the Communist Party flag as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao tried to reassure the territory that its freedoms would be protected. But the afternoon march was peaceful.

North Korea`s army warned the United States on Tuesday that any U.S.-led naval or aerial blockade or sanctions against Pyongyang`s nuclear weapons program would be met with "merciless retaliatory measures." The (North) Korean People`s Army (KPA) representative at the Panmunjom truce village on the border with South Korea accused the United States of planning both a pre-emptive attack and a blockade against the isolated and impoverished communist state.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

As factories kept firing workers, the Institute for Supply Management`s national factory gauge edged up to 49.8 in June from 49.4 in May. The results, released on Tuesday, fell short of Wall Street forecasts, which had pegged the figure at 51.0. A number above 50 signals growth while a figure below that level points to contraction. Persistent job losses are particularly worrisome, and the small increase in the employment index still implies that firms have continued to lay off workers for 33 months now. The ISM jobs gauge rose to 46.2 in June from 43.0 in May but was still below a level that denotes growth. "If the economy doesn`t appear to be doing better than it is, the Fed may have to do something more to ensure the recovery takes hold," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities.


Comment:

Gold surged higher in the last 24 hours as the U.S. dollar weakened spurred on by weaker U.S. economic data suggesting that the euphoria over a rebound in the U.S. economy may be premature. The Institute for Supply Management`s national factory data rose slightly but the data is still reveals a contracting economy. The combined weak dollar and grim economic data convinced Funds and speculators to cover short positions and accumulate gold though profit taking was noticed around the $353 level. Some analysts now are convinced that the dollar will weaken much further over the next several months with a growing minority suggesting that the dollar will continue to weaken for several years due to exceptionally large growth rates of current account and trade deficits that exceed the United States total combined gross domestic product (GDP). With very little room left to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve may soon act on its threat to use “nonconventional” means to stimulate the U.S. economy.

Gold also received more attention as the equities markets sold off on the grim data. Equities took the news hard, however, the equities market staged another “miracle rebound” in late trade, once again confirming that stock investors have the memory span of a house fly. Recent economic data has not been especially helpful and corporate earnings warnings continue to outpace positive earnings biases. The next major hurdle for the markets is Thursday’s first time jobless claims report that is expected to show more growth in unemployment. For the last 19 weeks “first time jobless claims” have exceeded the recessionary level of 400,000. Gold investors are more likely to take economic data into consideration along with continuing U.S. dollar weakness while stock investors desperately look for signs of economic recovery. The bleak economic outlook remains positive for gold.

- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Fall jemand unter den Lesern im Thread dem Leader unter den Goldpreis manipulierenden Goldproduzenten (bekannlich wurde die Blanchard Klage dazu, von einem US Gericht angenommen) etwas unter die Arme greifen möchte?

Barrick braucht Geld!

Und das nicht zu knapp.

1 Milliarde US Dollar!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.globetechnology.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/L…

Barrick files shelf to raise $1-billion

Tuesday, July 1, 2003 - Page B4

Barrick Gold Corp. has filed a short-form prospectus to sell up to $1-billion (U.S.) of debt. Details of the securities to be offered will be provided in supplements to the prospectus, which was filed Friday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Ontario Securities Commission. Toronto-based Barrick said it intends to use proceeds to repay debt, to make equity investments in subsidiaries, to repurchase stock, for capital expenditures and investment programs and for general corporate purposes.

[sebastianus]

@ThaiGuru

Also wenn die Konditionen dem derzeitgen Markt entsprechen und attraktiv für den Investor sind, dürfte Barrick das Geld bekommen. Einige der Explorationen von Partnerfirmen sollen ja ganz grossartige Edelmetallgehalte bekannt gegeben haben.

Gruss - Sebastianus

[ThaiGuru]

@sebastianus

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Einige der Explorationen von Partnerfirmen sollen ja ganz grossartige Edelmetallgehalte bekannt gegeben haben"

Um welche Firmen handelt es sich dabei?

Dass die Barrik das Geld kriegt, daran zweifle ich übrigens keinen Moment. Nur echte Gold Bugs werden ja wohl hoffentlich nicht darunter sein.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/ackerman070103.ht…

Black Box Forecasts: "Six hours ahead of its time"

Rick Ackerman

July 1, 2003

Gold goes begging



Auszug:

Gold Still THE No-Brainer

I cannot say it often enough, or stridently enough, but here it is one more time: Gold is the no-brainer investment of our lifetime. Moreover, it offers an opportunity to leverage the destructive force of a millennial deflation that is certain to devastate the net worth of millions of investors, as well as to ravage valuations across a broad swath of asset classes. Let me go on record as having begged you to move immediately into gold, perhaps with 10-20% of your investment capital. Meanwhile, do not be fooled by the occasional downdrafts in the price of gold on futures markets. These swoons are manipulated or technical events that are largely meaningless within a much bigger picture. And such fright-mask feints, it must be noted, are no longer receiving the concurrence of some gold stocks such as Newmont Mining and Royal Gold, which continue to rise even on days when bullion prices are weak.

The steady, confident accumulation that has begun to lift these stocks, and which will soon begin to lift many other gold stocks, could not be more obvious.

It is a great chance to hop aboard, but the bargain prices will not last for much longer. As far as I can recall, it is unprecedented that the escape route from a severe economic downturn should be so cheap, so obvious, and so essentially riskless.

Gold assets are going begging right now, in part because they are not structured to receive the huge volume of capital that has flowed into euro-related paper over the last several months. But just because the Big Boys are obliged for reasons of size to seek safety in the "wrong" investment vehicles does not mean we have to follow them over the cliff.

Rick Ackerman

[silverpwd]

Schwupsdiwups, morgen geht Gold mit dem Dollar wieder runter.
Solange Gold keine eigene Kraft besitzt, ist das Metall kein Kauf.

[ThaiGuru]

July 1 - Gold $351.30 up $5.40 - Silver $4.56 up 1 cent

Gold And The Gold Shares Continue To Move Higher

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul`s support." -George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950

Gold opened strongly in the US following a very firm overseas market. Not only did it open $2.50 higher, it shot up over $7 in the early going. Around that time, the DOW swooned more than 100 points due to poor economic news in Europe and the US. Immediately, I called up my friend Judith, one of the sharpest commodity brokers out there, to ponder whether:

*such a strong start was an indication gold would finally nullify the $6 rule (The Gold Cartel contains gold to $6+ gains on strong up days to minimize any sort of special excitement over the metal).

*Silver could advance more than a few cents on a very strong gold up day (The Gold Cartel limits silver advances to minor gains when it has trouble holding gold down).

*The Working Group on Financial Markets would rescue the stock market (It continues to prop up the market whenever there is a major sell-off to keep the public from wholesale dumping).

The answer to the pondering is critical because it will give us an indication whether The Gold Cartel could be losing control of their rig. The day’s answer came shortly after my phone call. The Gold Gestapo called out their forces and put an immediate cap cap on the gold rally. Silver never had a chance. The DOW went right back up just as gold was sent down from its highs.

The Gold Cartel are a bunch of annoying clowns that need to be put in their place. Based on my emails today, I know MANY of you feel the same way. Their tactics are obvious, tedious and against the anti-trust laws of the US. One day they will get theirs. Maybe the Blanchard lawsuit will kick off some serious aggravation and more for them. We shall see.

In the meantime, I suspect the surging demand for physical gold will give them all the aggravation they can handle. On that note, time to welcome John Brimelow back after a few days off. As Café members know very well, JB has had a better handle on the physical market than anyone else out there in gold land. Before he left for a little R&R, John stated categorically he didn’t think the sellers could keep gold down because the physical market was too strong. He was right. Gold has rallied three days in a row.

Is it any surprise that gold rallied sharply right after the quarter ended for the cabal gold shorts? Guess what, not only is that not a surprise, gold has rallied the first day of the month THE LAST 48 OUT OF 50 MONTHS! How is that for a number which is out of line with the laws of probability.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Gold will need to take out $360 to break out of the bullish "megaphone" formation it has formed.

Gold:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

The open interest dropped 1127 contracts to 184,171 contracts. This is not a market loaded with specs. As the cabal loses control of the gold market, which is inevitable, 70,000 specs will come in on the long side and drive the price up to $420 for openers.

The past couple of weeks, whether gold was up or down, I have stressed the following:


*Gold could rally when you least expect it to

*The physical market is on fire

*The only reason gold goes down because of the
manipulative activity of The Gold Cartel

*That Gold Cartel is in big trouble

*Gold will really take off as the cabal loses control of their rigging operations

*The tremendous action of the gold shares is telling us that gold will rebound sooner, rather than later

*The gold shares will lead gold up

*The gold shares are in and going into stronger hands

*The gold shares are not selling off on gold dips like
they used to because many of the stale, weaker and
uninformed investors have already dumped them

*Stay in position with your gold shares" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">*Gold is explosive

*The gold fundamentals are a "10+" and have never been historically stronger in aggregate

*Gold could rally when you least expect it to

*The physical market is on fire

*The only reason gold goes down because of the
manipulative activity of The Gold Cartel

*That Gold Cartel is in big trouble

*Gold will really take off as the cabal loses control of their rigging operations

*The tremendous action of the gold shares is telling us that gold will rebound sooner, rather than later

*The gold shares will lead gold up

*The gold shares are in and going into stronger hands

*The gold shares are not selling off on gold dips like
they used to because many of the stale, weaker and
uninformed investors have already dumped them

*Stay in position with your gold shares

No change in my thinking.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, July 01, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.57, PM $5.42, with world gold at $347.50 and $348.80. Comfortably above legal import point. Monday’s close saw an ex-duty premium of $6.08 on world gold of $345. Further evidence that last week’s assault on gold has run into a barrier of physical offtake comes from the Istanbul Gold Exchange weekly report: Turkish gold imports jumped 52% above the previous week to 7.535 tonnes, which was 94% above the year to date average. Nihon Unicom interestingly remarks today that:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The strength in the Loco London was because of active purchase from China and South East Asian countries"

TOCOM gold picked up yesterday’s firmer trend from NY. On volume equal to 30,017 Comex contracts, 34% above Monday’s level, the active contact rose 14 yen, $US gold moved up $1.40 from yesterday and open interest rose by 167 Comex lots. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 28,000 lots.)

While technical analysts are uniformly alarmed by last weeks’ action, today’s recovery (clearing the 100 day moving average without difficulty) is in line with the premiums reported from the key buying markets, and of course further demonstrates the peculiar, technically disrespectful, character of the contemporary gold market. Apparently the gold equities fully appreciate this.

One noted bullion dealer attempted to make some hay on Monday from the fact that

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"$14.5 fall in week to June 24, when large COMEX specs liquidated 47 tonnes, it`s biggest weekly price collapse since start of Sept 2001. And on only half the long liquidation of similar washouts."

But of course this merely underlines what is obvious from the behavior of the premiums: a major OTC seller (who but a Central Bank?) treated the friends of gold to yet another soggy close to the quarter.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[sebastianus]

#6274 #6275 @ThaiGuru

Wenn ich so durch den Explorermarkt surfe, finde ich immer wieder Hinweise auf Barrick, entweder als Minibeteiligter oder mit Optionen. Wenn die Barrickleute ein wirklich aussichtsreiches Projekt wittern, sind sie gerne dabei.

Defintitiv ist dies bei IMA Exploration in Patagonien, die haben im letzten Explorationsbericht vorläufige superfantastische Silbergehalte gemeldet.
Aber Barrick ist nicht mein Interessengebiet.

Grüsse - Sebastianus

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

As has been the case so often recently, the US economic news was mediocre to disappointing. Construction spending for May was expected to rise .4%, but fell 1.7%.

Then this:

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly contracted for the fourth straight month, an industry report showed, suggesting factories are wary of boosting production until demand strengthens.
The Institute for Supply Management`s manufacturing index was 49.8 last month compared with 49.4 in May. A reading below 50 signals contraction.

Manufacturing capacity is close to a 20-year low, giving factories little incentive to order new equipment to expand. Consumer and overseas demand need to accelerate before business investment strengthens and manufacturers become confident enough to hire workers. –END-

Those lousy numbers come in after the war supposedly ended and with expectation of the Fed’s 13th rate cut. Not good.

None of the economic news mattered – not when this revolting development news item hit the tap:

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse Group, and Merrill Lynch & Co. won dismissal of lawsuits accusing them of misleading investors by issuing biased research tailored to win investment banking business.

The dismissals by two judges in Manhattan federal court were the first rulings on the banks` liability for allegedly biased research since 10 of them settled allegations by regulators in April and agreed to pay $1.4 billion.

U.S. District Judge Milton Pollack called the plaintiffs who sued Merrill over reports on 24/7 Real Media Inc. and Interliant Inc. ``high-risk speculators`` who ``now hope to twist the federal securities laws into a scheme of cost-free speculators` insurance.`` –END-

Wall Street now can go back and rape and pillage more investors. They can reap more profit with less risk of being prosecuted for deceiving the public. The DOG surged on the news, rallying 17 to 1640, after briefly taking out 1600. The DOW loved the "rip-off the customer news" too, jumping 55 to 9041. At one point, it was 113 lower.

Bonds retreated once again, closing at 116 ’30, down ’13. The dollar also sank, closing at 94.65, down .49.

Chuck checks in early:

Bill:

The almost one to one correlation of the market to the shares continues. Every time the market lifts, the XAU waits and corrects slightly. What will happen when the panic in full force hits should be quite amazing.

Still not sold on a strong dollar in light of impending asset liquidation. It`s anyone`s guess. Let`s see how we end up today.

Chuck

Many of the Western central banks have foolishly sold, lent or swapped out their gold and will never get it back. They have allowed more prudent countries that plan for the long-term to accumulate physical gold at ridiculously low prices. This short-sighted and deceitful financial maneuvering by The Gold Cartel will haunt the West for a generation.

The latest on the gold dinar:

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/2003070100111046.php

2:06pm Tue Jul 1st, 2003

M`sia hopes to trade in gold dinar with Iran soon: Mahathir


Malaysia hopes to base its trade with Iran on the gold dinar soon as a first step in decreasing dependency on the US dollar in international trade, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said today.

Mahathir, who is also finance minister, was responding to a question at a news conference on whether Malaysia would realise its long-held ambition to start using the dinar this year.

"Well, we hope very soon. Maybe (this year) we`ll see whether we can do it with Iran," he said after opening an international convention on the gold dinar which, according to Islamic law, is roughly 4.3 grams in weight. –END-

From David Champeau, GATA’s man in Italy:

Bill,

Reading Mr. Sinclair`s latest short essay (Hemingway Table) on the money supply and Fed actions makes me think of three points.

One, its amazing how many "armchair economists" we have today. The Bloomberg article quotes a gent who has all the answers for what ails Japan, mostly in hindsite. Most people do not realize how wealthy, outside of the banking system, Japan really is.

Two, using Mr. Sinclair`s table on M2 money supply I calculated a growth rate of roughly 6% for 2002. This means that in 12 years the money supply will double and in one person`s working lifetime the money supply will quadruple. So a dollar saved at age 25 will be worth about 25 cents at age 70.

This is not "exponential" growth but it is destructive nonetheless. If one takes the time to do the math one will find that most of the middle class will not be able to retire because the dollars saved for the last 20 years will not have much value in 10-15 years at this rate of growth.

Third, the Bloomberg article is from a guy who is proposing Keynesian solutions, which if administered "properly" would avoid the dreaded "debt trap." We have been hearing this for years now with regard to Japan, especially from MIT`s Krugman. "If only they had lowered rates sooner." "If only they would ease monetary policy." Blah, blah, blah.

Read James Dale Davison`s latest article in Bill Bonner`s Daily Reckoning about Argentina and what happens when countries follow Keynesian-style monetary policy. Bad money is bad money is bad money and no amount of lower rates or easing is going to prevent the inevitable (in my armchair now) bust after a credit orgy.

Central banks, the 5th plank of the Communist Manifesto, are the antithesis of freedom. They are just another government-created cartel and will fail like all cartels. It does not matter what the BoJ or the Fed does at this point. The boom is busted and the inevitable bust must and will happen and it will take down the pushers of bad money with it and, as in the Argentina case, a lot of the middle class. Our history proves this.

The only thing we can do is educate ourselves and others. That is what you are doing. I started a small group at Yahoo for my friends and family. I invited them to join and I regularly pass along articles to educate them about our monetary system and what history teaches us is inevitable. I found that a lot of people want to learn they just do not have the time to dig out the information, so I spoon feed it to them slowly without a lot of fire and
brimstone. I hope others here are doing this also.

Regards,
Dave

There has been a big hoopla the past few days about what a great quarter it was for the investor in the general stock market:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"On Monday, stocks ended nearly flat, but the broad Standard & Poor`s 500 index wrapped up the second quarter with its best showing in 4-1/2 years, gaining nearly 15 percent. For the quarter, the blue-chip Dow gained 12.4 percent and the technology-laden Nasdaq soared 21 percent."

Fine, but there was narry a peep about one of the best performing sectors of the stock market:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed at 78.65. The index closed out last quarter at 66.92 so that`s a nearly 18 percent gain. And the Amex Gold Bugs Index gained 1.7 percent to 148.96, up 20 percent from the end of the previous quarter."

That’s right: THE GOLD SHARES!!!

What we have in the gold shares is an incredible stealth bull market. We are in the midst of a MAJOR bull market and few seem to care. Even many longstanding gold share investors were totally bummed on the last gold retracement. Yet, the HUI is only three points away from bolting into new high ground, while gold is $20 off its latest highs.

A powerful looking HUI chart
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

The past year the gold shares barely moved, while gold rallied from the $325 area to $388 and then to $372. Now, they are leading the way, BUT are still undervalued relative to bullion. They are playing catch up.

What a historic investment opportunity this as, as oft-mentioned in this column. Very few people in the investment world know the true gold story like you do. FEW know how powerful the gold fundamentals really are and of the incredible gold short position that continues to grow. Heck, most of the gold world is clueless. The general investor has no chance of understanding what is going to happen to the price of gold and why – and won’t until the price is well over $400. You think they would hear about the gold truth from Wall Street? That’s a joke.

Even after this big stock market rally, the Wall Street BULLS are hoping for a 10% rally from here over the next year, at best. Meanwhile in our sector, the quality junior/exploration golds could easily rally 100%, 200%, 300% and more over the next year. And we are almost two years into our bull-run!

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Stur nach Chart, koste es was es wolle!

Erst gestern noch, hat Godmode Trader seinen Lesern was von einem Verkaufs-Trigger (#6271) der ausgelöst worden sei erzählt, der Gold auf 337.50 Dollar pro Unze führen sollte, und heute 24 Std. später, nun die Kehrtwende.

Jetzt soll es sich bereits wieder um einen theoretisch, potenziellen Kaufstrigger handeln, der bis über 390.- Dollar pro Unze führen könnte!

Fordern ihre gestern noch gelackmeierten Anhänger aber vorläufig noch auf zuzuwarten mit einem Goldinvestment, solange der Goldpreis sich noch in einem abfallenden Konsolidierungstrend bewege.

Von einer Erklärung, oder gar Entschuldigung, für ihre Fehlbeurteilung von gestern, die sicherlich einige Leser zum Gold, oder Goldaktien Verkauf bewegt haben dürfte, keine Spur.

Nur von einem antizyklischen Verhalten beim Goldpreis ist, man höre und staune, die Rede!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://62.146.24.165/news.php?show=124126


01.07. 22:13

Goldpreiserholung, aber ...

... damit noch immer kein konkreter Kauf.

Goldpreis pro Unze aktuell 350,9 US Dollar.

Aktueller Tageschart als Update. Solange der Goldpreis sich in dem abfallenden Konsolidierungstrend bewegt, ist GOLD noch kein Kauf. Das Edelmetall wird dann wieder interessant, wenn der Ausbruch aus diesem Konsolidierungstrend beginnt. Dann dürfte sich unter regulären Verhältnissen ein charttechnisches Kursziel über 390 US $ pro Unze triggern.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/07/02/127429.html

Juni-Arbeitslosigkeit auf Rekordhoch

350.000 Erwerbslose mehr als im Vorjahr - Konjunkturkrise verantwortlich

Berlin - Im Monat Juni waren nach WELT-Informationen laut internen Berechnungen der Bundesanstalt für Arbeit (BA) 4,30 Mio. Menschen ohne Arbeit - das ist die höchste Juni-Arbeitslosigkeit seit der Wiedervereinigung. Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ist die Zahl der Erwerbslosen um rund 40 000 zurückgegangen. Dafür sind vor allem saisonale Einflüsse verantwortlich.

Aussagekräftiger als Vormonatsvergleiche sind jedoch Vorjahresvergleiche. Und hier zeigt sich, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit im Juni 2003 um 350 000 gegenüber dem Vorjahr angestiegen ist. Das ist der stärkste Anstieg seit über zehn Jahren. Als Grund wird die schwache Konjunktur angeführt. Im Mai war die Zahl der Arbeitslosen im Jahresverlauf überraschend niedrig. Das war allerdings keine Trendwende, sondern resultierte primär aus statistischen Effekten. So stieg die Zahl der Abmeldungen deutlich an, weil die Arbeitsämter ihren Druck auf Arbeitslose verstärkten hatten.

Ohne die Maßnahmen der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik, wie Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen und Strukturanpassungsmaßnahmen, wäre die Zahl der Arbeitslosen im Juni noch weitaus höher ausgefallen. Hinzu kommt, dass im Juni über 300 000 ältere Erwerbslose aus der Statistik heraus gefallen sind, weil sie die Möglichkeit eines so genannten erleichterten Arbeitslosengeldbezuges nutzen.

Nach dieser Regelung, die in Paragraf 428 des Sozialgesetzbuches festgeschrieben ist, können sich Erwerbslose ab 58 Jahren als nicht mehr vermittelbar erklären. Sie beziehen dann bis zum Renteneintritt Arbeitslosengeld und fallen aus der Statistik heraus.

Laut EU-Statistikamt Eurostat in Luxemburg ist die Arbeitslosigkeit in der Europäischen Union im Mai wieder leicht auf 8,1 Prozent gestiegen. Im Vormonat hatte sie noch bei 8, Prozent gelegen, im Mai 2002 bei 7,6 Prozent.

Die niedrigste Arbeitslosenquote verzeichnete im Mai Luxemburg mit 3,6 Prozent, den höchsten Stand hatte Spanien mit 11,3 Prozent. Deutschland folgt mit 9,4 an zweiter Stelle. In den zwölf Euro-Staaten lag die Arbeitslosenquote bei 8,8 Prozent. cbs

Artikel erschienen am 2. Jul 2003

[erdede]

#6282

@ThaiGuru

tja, das wissen natürlich auch unsere "Freunde" von der CABAL, das bei einem Ausbruch über 355.2 neue Spekulanten bei Gold aufspringen und Druck ausüben könnten. Darum haben sie auch ihre Phalanxen vorgeschoben, wie wir sie gestern wieder mal miterleben durften. Dazu kommt das NY sich wieder erholt hat und der Dollar sich wieder leicht befestigte.
Charttechnik spielt eben eine gewichtige Rolle, von irgendwelchen überraschenden Ereignissen mal abgesehen.
Solange wir nicht diese Flagge nicht nach oben verlassen, besteht eben immer noch die Gefahr abzugleiten.
Warten wirs ab!

Gruss
erdede

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Du hast vollkommen Recht, dem Gold Cabal sind diese wichtigen Chart Widerstände bestens bekannt.

Den Widersachern des Gold Cabals aber auch.

Mir geht es auch nicht darum, diejenigen Leute im Board, die sich mit Charts befassen, und ihre Kaufentscheidungen davon anhängig machen, in irgendeiner Art zu verunglimpfen, oder ihnen ihre Qualitäten abzusprechen.

Ich behaupte aber trotzdem weiter:

Bei der Prognose der zukünftigen Goldpreisentwicklung, sind die Charts nur wenig bis gar nicht hilfreich.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Was mich aber hauptsächlich ärgert, sind die vielen "Wendehälse" Gold Analysten, die je nach Wetterlage beim Goldpreis, heute zu Verkäufen raten, und am andern Morgen schon wieder das Gegenteil verbreiten.

Wenn ich mal Lust dazu habe, und auch die Zeit dazu finde, werde ich die gesammelten Goldprognosen von "Goodmod-Trader", und vor allem die vom (Zweck?)Gold Pessimisten Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, der in der mehr un-, als regelmässig seine Kommentare zum Goldgeschehen, auf die Leserschaft ergiesst, in einen Langzeit Goldchart einbringen, und hier zur Begutachtung in den Thred stellen.

Vielleicht kann mir ja bei dieser Mühe auch ein User im Gold Board etwas behilflich sein?

Das Goldanlagen, sei es physisches Gold, oder auch in Form von Aktien, für mich eine sehr vielversprechende Langzeit Anlage darstellen, und keinen kurzen Zock, kann ich für die Leser hier im Thread nicht genug betonen.

Heute Gold Aktien kaufen, und morgen wieder verkaufen, um sie dann evtl. Tage später wieder zurückkaufen, ist nichts für mich, kostet Spesen und Gebühren, und wenn man den richtigen Zeitpunkt für den Wiedereinstieg verpassen sollte, kann es noch dazu verdammt teuer werden.

Eher früher, als später, wird das Gold Cabal, so oder so, mangels physischem Gold die Füsse strecken. Dann würde ich mich nicht mehr so stark darauf verlassen, dass der Goldpreis überhaupt noch einmal fällt. Mindestens solange nicht, bis wir wieder einen fairen Preis beim Gold erreicht haben, der von Angebot und Nachfrage (physisch) bestimmt wird. Der dürfte aber höchstwahrscheinlich bedeutend höher liegen, als der heutige manipulierte Papier Gold Preis, bewerkstelligt von Gold Bullion Banken, LBMA, und Comex, mit zusätzlicher Unterstützung der Zentralbanken, inklusive der FED.

Der Goldpreis Manipulations Prozess gegen den Gold Produzenten, und Mega-Shorter Barrik Gold, und die Gold Bullion Bank JP-Morgan in den USA, die gleichzeitig auch diejenige Bank mit den weltweit grössten derivativ Position in Gold ist, dürfte evtl. bald einiges mehr an Licht ins Dunkle bringen, und den Angeklagen "Goldpreis Manipulateuren", vermutlich zur Zeit grosse "Kopfschmerzen" bereiten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Off Topic

Passt aber trotzdem irgenwie .......!

http://www.ftd.de/pw/in/1056704879881.html?nv=hpm

[ThaiGuru]

Wer weiss, vielleicht wird`s ja noch was heute mit dem Charttechnisch wichtigen Widerstand bei 355.20 Dollar?

[tamara93]

@ thaiguru # 6275

auch bei meinem Favoriten strategic minerals SMC.AX mischt barrick mit ( newmont wäre mir lieber ),auch hier super Goldfunde.
Thread: strategic minerals - der kracher der nächsten Monate?!?

[ThaiGuru]

@tamara93

Werde mir Strategic Minerals morgen mal etwas genauer ansehen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

ELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews



BEMA GOLD CORPORATION

TSX, AMEX SYMBOL: BGO

JULY 2, 2003 - 09:02 ET

Bema Gold Corporation: High Grade Drill Results From The Kupol Property, Russia

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--

Bema Gold Corporation ("Bema") announces the first drill results
from the Kupol Property in Chukotka, Far East Russia. A total of
43 holes totaling 5630 metres, have been drilled on the property
to date. Forty-two of the drill holes have intersected the
mineralized epithermal vein system, which now extends over 2
kilometres of strike length and to a depth of at least 250
metres. The system remains open along strike to the north and
south, and to depth.

Assay results have been received for the first 16 holes which
have been drilled along 1600 metres of strike length and to
varying depths with the deepest holes being approximately 250
metres. Some of the highlights are: hole 4 which intersected
29.90 metres averaging 27.97 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and 220.9
g/t silver; hole 7 which intersected 15.50 metres averaging 43.76
g/t gold and 441.18 g/t silver and hole 9 which intersected 18.30
metres averaging 65.05 g/t gold and 1021.27 g/t silver.


/T/

Detailed assay results are summarized below. Drill hole locations, a
summary of Bema`s lab procedures and QAQC (Quality Assurance Quality
Control) are on the last page.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Hole# Interval Length Au g/t Ag g/t
(metres) (metres)
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-01 6.20- 15.70 9.50 23.45 184.24
Includes 7.50 - 11.35 3.85 50.98 405.92
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-02 10.70- 18.40 7.70 27.04 580.54
Includes 10.70 - 15.30 4.60 39.92 912.26
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-03 152.00- 167.10 15.10 14.73 180.44
Includes 158.60 - 163.75 5.15 27.05 343.44
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-04 148.3- 178.20 29.90 27.97 220.9
Includes 162.60- 175.70 13.10 56.99 445.24
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-05 173.55- 186.00 12.45 20.85 318.99
Includes 176.90- 183.20 6.30 35.05 595.69
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-06 230.60- 243.45 12.85 36.43 370.67
Includes 238.00- 241.00 3.00 87.69 709.53
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-07 14.90- 30.40 15.50 43.76 441.18
Includes 21.30- 27.40 6.10 61.17 496.80
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-08 308.4-313.0 4.60 14.07 111.37
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-09 102.50- 120.80 18.30 65.05 1021.27
Includes 113.0-117.00 4.00 143.75 1984.13
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-10 23.10- 24.10 1.00 5.50 29.40
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-11 148.90- 172.70 23.80 27.04 426.49
Includes 157.40- 164.20 6.80 50.87 1063.14
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-12 14.20- 21.00 6.80 25.72 344.71
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-13 41.90- 43.75 1.85 8.51 62.09
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-14 111.85-114.65 2.8 3.51 37.98
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-15 26.45- 37.60 11.15 36.67 268.11
---------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-16 23.80- 31.80 8.00 18.08 65.36
---------------------------------------------------------------

/T/

These results have confirmed the high grade trenching and
drilling results from earlier Russian exploration, and have
significantly increased the strike length and depth of the
mineralized vein system beyond the area of the previous drilling.
The previous exploration drilling within the mineralized vein
system consisted of 20 diamond drill holes totaling approximately
2,500 metres along 400 metres of strike length to an average
depth of 100 metres. Based on this previous drilling, a Russian
C-1/C-2 reserve(i) was calculated at 780,000 tonnes containing
835,000 ounces of gold and 9,350,000 ounces of silver with an
average grade of 33.3 g/t gold and 372.8 g/t silver.

Drilling is ongoing at Kupol with two Canadian and two Russian
drill rigs. A total of 26,000 metres of drilling is budgeted in
the 2003 exploration program and more assay results will be
released as available.

The Kupol Project is a joint venture between Bema and the
Government of Chukotka. Bema has the option to purchase a 75%
interest in the property from the government.


/T/

On behalf of BEMA GOLD CORPORATION

"Clive T. Johnson"
Chairman, C.E.O., & President

(i) C1/C2 reserve is the Russian equivalent of a probable reserve
however Bema has compared this calculation to an inferred resource in
previous disclosure

The following table shows the location of the drill holes:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Hole ID x y Elevation Length Section Azimuth Dip
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-001 29436362.6 7411833.91 645.3 34.97 1825N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-002 29436355.56 7412597.61 654.35 37.82 2600N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-003 29436488.52 7411889.59 648.87 178.61 1900N 270 -53
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-004 29436480.77 7411989.23 655.21 184.82 2000N 270 -59
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-005 29436488.52 7411889.59 648.87 285.93 1890N 270 -67
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-006 29436549.44 7411990.17 652.37 273.21 2000N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-007 29436350.4 7411683.46 611.28 72.54 1685N 270 -53
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-008 29436550.05 7411990.17 652.37 370.33 2000N 270 -69
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-009 29436403.86 7411682.16 609.2 196.8 1675N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-010 29436252.05 7411265.85 559.04 50.8 1275N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-011 29436404.44 7411682.16 609.2 132.6 1675N 270 -69
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-012 29436317.71 7412920.75 631.78 49 2900N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-013 29436201.25 7411300.08 574.01 67 1300N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-014 29436478.92 7412277.39 653.11 160.63 2275N 267 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-015 29436363.86 7411744.11 623.03 62.48 1735N 270 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KP03-016 29436303 7411450 578 102.8 1450N 280 -55
---------------------------------------------------------------------

/T/

Bema has installed an on site preparation and fire assay
laboratory due to the project`s remote location. The lab is
managed by an experienced Russian fire assayer and overseen by an
independent consultant. Bema has also retained Smee and
Associates Consulting Ltd. to ensure the lab is operated to the
level of North American standards and that a comprehensive
quality control program is run by the lab. The Kupol lab is
operated as an independent lab and no Bema personnel are
permitted unsupervised access. Drill samples have been prepped on
site under the supervision of the independent North American
consultant and reviewed on site by Barry Smee who visited the
site during lab start-up. Samples are crushed in two passes
within a jaw crusher to 80 % passing 2 mm. Approximately 1000
grams are split off the coarse crush and pulverized to 95 %
passing 150 mesh. A 200 gram pulverized sample is split and
packaged for the analytical lab.

Due to initial problems with the fire assay furnace on site,
samples from the first 16 drill holes have been assayed at the
Julietta Mine site laboratory. In addition duplicate pulp samples
from the first 5 holes are being asssayed in Vancouver by
Assayers Labs. All results released in this news release have
been validated by our Quality Control Program (QC) which has been
designed in concert with Smee and Associates to meet or exceed
the requirements of NI 43-101. This QC program includes the use
of certified standard reference samples, coarse field blank
material and duplicate sampling. Tom Garagan, Vice President of
Exploration, is the Qualified Person for this exploration
project.

The Toronto Stock Exchange neither approves nor disapproves the
information contained in this News Release. Bema Gold Corporation
trades on The Toronto and American stock exchanges. Symbol: BGO.

Some of the statements contained in this release are
forward-looking statements, such as estimates and statements that
describe the Company`s future plans, objectives or goals,
including words to the effect that the Company or management
expects a stated condition or result to occur. Since
forward-looking statements address future events and conditions,
by their very nature, they involve inherent risks and
uncertainties. Actual results in each case could differ
materially from those currently anticipated in such statements.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Bema Gold Corporation
Investor Relations
[phone] or Toll-Free 1-800-316-8855
www.bema.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200307/kt200307021644181…



Gold Banking Service in Full Swing

Starting today, banks will be able to operate a handful of profitable sideline businesses such as dealing in gold and banking-related software.
The government yesterday announced its decision to expand the scope of banking businesses in line with the introduction of bancassurance and the spread of online financial transactions.

Local bankers have only been allowed to handle gold currency, not gold itself.

With the implementation of the new rule, they can now engage in so-called gold banking, which includes buying, selling and loaning gold and gold-related derivatives.

Gold banking will be exempt from value-added taxes for two years until June 2005, according to the Ministry of Finance and Economy.

The issuance of gold certificates, however, will be prohibited for the time being due to the possibility of it being used as a tool for money laundering and inheritance tax evasion.

In addition, banks will be able to offer consulting services to companies on corporate restructuring and financing.

``The measures are aimed at providing banks with more sources for profits in meeting the demands of the time in which there are no boundaries of financial products and services,’’ a director at the ministry said.

Regulations on the banking sector will be more eased to allow banks to deal in all kinds of financial products with a few exceptions stipulated by relevant laws, he added.

[e-mail]



07-02-2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=hotStoc…



Meridian Gold rallies on Chile exploration update

Wed July 2, 2003 11:16 AM ET

TORONTO, July 2 (Reuters) - Meridian Gold Inc. MNG.TO MDG.N shares rallied nearly 8 percent on Wednesday after the company issued a strong exploration report for its El Penon gold mine in northern Chile.
Shares in Meridian rose 7.79 percent, or C$1.20, to C$16.60 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on volume of 95,552 shares. The stock has moved in a yearly range of C$32.98 to C$12.71. The exchange`s broader gold index was up 4.94 percent.

In New York, Meridian shares were up 23 cents to $12.38.

"Really it`s the exploration update that`s driving the share price performance right now," said George Topping, an analyst with Sprott Securities. "It showed that they detected more high grade zones within the mining lease area, more high grade than the market had anticipated."

Reno, Nevada-based Meridian offered an upbeat mid-year update for the high-grade Quebrada Colorada Norte zone in particular, saying it had extended drilling at the location.

In a separate release, the gold miner said it had completed the sale of its 30 percent stake in the Jerritt Canyon joint venture, located in Nevada, to Queenstake Resources Ltd. QRL.TO.

($1=$1.34 Canadian)

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1057154300.php

Miramar Mining

By: Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis



The similarity between the charts of Miramar and Golden Star Resources is remarkable, both are rising out of saucer bases completed over the same time frame, with similar volume patterns. There is one significant difference with Miramar, however, which is worth pointing out, and that is that it has not broken out of its saucer base yet, but appears to be just about to do so.

The long-term chart is a classic, which I would use to illustrate a book on TA, were I to write one. Here we see a fine saucer pattern of about 5 years’ duration, just as with Golden Star. Towards the end of this saucer, over the past year or so, we can see a dramatic pickup in volume, particularly on advances, portending a major bull market advance.

But what’s really great about this stock is that it hasn’t broken out yet, but is within a whisker of doing so, and looks very close to doing so, to me. I sincerely believe that the best way to applaud and show respect to the smart money investors who have laboured so assiduously over the past 5 years to create this saucer pattern is to climb aboard right at the start of the very substantial and sustained uptrend that should now ensue.



Looking now briefly at the short-term chart, we can see the price flirting with the highs of about May last year and the past winter. A break above these highs will signal a breakout from the saucer and the start of a major advance. Moving averages are in bullish sequence. It is somewhat overbought short-medium term, but with gold looking increasingly likely to forge ahead shortly, and the outstanding longer-term prospects for this stock, I just don’t think it’s worth the risk of missing a big move up by waiting for dips, particularly if you are buying for the longer term. Short-term risk is to about $1.20, should it dip, which I don’t expect.

This is one of those rare stocks that has very little downside risk and huge upside potential, in my estimation. In the unfolding gold bull market, this should reach at least $7 - $8, I expect it to go far higher.

Miramar Mining, MNG on AMEX

Closed at $1.36 on 1st July 2003

By Clive Maund, no responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Disclaimer: I don`t own any shares of Miramar Mining.

Kaufbeuren, Germany, 2 nd July 2003


-- Posted Wednesday, July 2 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 2, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled unchanged at $351.30 an ounce. "With shortened holiday hours (Thursday) and a day off around the corner, it appears traders are more content on the sidelines," said Erik Gebhard, president of Altavest Worldwide Trading. Add to that, "the dollar is listless and offering minimal catalyst for gold to feed upon," he said. The decline in manufacturing ``is not good for economic recovery,`` said Frank Lesh, a trader and analyst at Rand Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. ``The dollar`s down and is providing support for gold,`` he said. On Thursday, the widely watched June U.S. employment report will be released just hours before the COMEX closes early for the July 4 holiday on Friday. "If anything, that has the potential of kicking the market around through the currency and stock reaction," said James Pogoda, a vice president of precious metals at Mitsubishi International Corp.

The name of the game for the precious metals market continues to be the performance of the U.S. dollar. "Since the disappointing FOMC announcement last week [many economists were looking for a half point not quarter point cut], bond yields have risen, the U.S. dollar has bounced, and U.S. stocks have declined," remarked Yianos Kontopoulos, Merrill Lynch chief global FX strategist, in a research note. "This is a cat-and-mouse game between stocks, bonds and the dollar. Can stocks continue to rally if bond yields back up and the USD bounces? If the answer is yes, then clearly our framework is wrong. [But] a sharp consumer-induced U.S recovery, similar to 1998-99, would be required for the U.S. dollar bear market to be reversed. On balance, we think this is unlikely," he said.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $351.50 an ounce, up from $351.20 an ounce at the morning fixing. "As we approach the Northern Hemisphere summer slow-down, few gold specific factors are likely to move the metal around, with broader economic and currency markets drivers expected to remain dominant," John Reade, an analyst at UBS Investment Bank told clients Wednesday. "Currencies are still the short-term drivers, with good physical interest supporting the market," wrote Rhona O`Connell, head of market research at the World Gold Council. "Encouragingly, for the bulls, this support is emerging at progressively higher levels after the recent sell-off, although the weakness in the dollar is a contributory factor," said O’Connell. "Gold`s climb back above the $350 level is positive for the yellow metal following the liquidation seen over last week," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said. He expected bullion to run into initial selling around $355 an ounce, but did not rule out a re-test of $365 in the event of any pre-holiday short covering.

Analysts said the dollar`s general resilience to disappointing manufacturing data on Tuesday signaled markets were hoping the world`s largest economy was turning the corner, but were reluctant to make large bets before more data arrives. "We are in a very tight range. But on balance the reaction to the weak ISM data suggested markets are still prepared to be optimistic about U.S. growth prospects," said Shahab Jalinoos, currency strategist at UBS Warburg in London. "The yen is a big story today, but markets are wary about intervention," he said. ``The Fed is still concerned about the economy and the economic news is patchy at best,`` said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Gerrard Ltd. in London, which manages the equivalent of $27 billion. ``The factors contributing to the dollar`s drop haven`t gone away,`` he said. ``The U.S. economy is still a little shaky,`` Herbert Hainer, chief executive officer of Adidas-Salomon AG, the world`s second- biggest sporting goods maker, said in a televised interview in Munich. ``The euro was undervalued -- now it`s coming back.`` A range between $1.10 and $1.20 is ``fair value`` for the euro, he said. Rubinsohn, along with London-based analysts at Barclays Capital, Tokyo-based Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. and Credit Agricole Indosuez, has the most pessimistic forecast for the dollar by the end of September. He predicts it will slide to $1.25 by the end of the quarter and trade at about $1.20 by late December. For the end of the year, Credit Agricole had the most negative dollar forecast, forecasting a drop to $1.30. HSBC Holdings Plc and Travelex Group were the next most bearish, expecting the dollar to tumble to $1.27. ``The U.S. needs $550 billion a year just for the dollar to stand still,`` said David Bloom, a currency analyst at HSBC in London. Investors` optimism about ``a cyclical recovery in the U.S. is false.``


ASIA:

Gold closed at $351.05 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong Kong, up $5.60 an ounce from Monday`s close of $345.45. Financial institutions, including the gold market, were closed Tuesday for a public holiday. Gold traded in a narrow range in spite of a stronger U.S. dollar and a rocket ride on Asian equities exchanges overnight. The Nikkei blasted off with a gain of 3.4% on better corporate sentiment. The stronger U.S. dollar did not trigger much gold selling as investors remain wary of more government “stealth intervention” in the currency markets. ``We can`t really be bullish on the U.S. economy and the dollar at this moment,`` said Minoru Shioiri, senior manager of the treasury and foreign-exchange division in Tokyo at Mitsubishi Securities Co., the brokerage unit of Japan`s third-biggest bank. The dollar`s drop against the yen may be curtailed as investors and traders speculate the Bank of Japan will sell its currency to weaken it, helping exporter profits. ``It is hard to sell the dollar against the yen because of speculation the BOJ may sell,`` said Tokyo-based Kazutoshi Nakade, who helps run the equivalent of $1.7 billion at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. ``Speculation may grow when the dollar falls below 119.``


IRAQI GOLD?:

US-led coalition forces scouring Iraq have admitted 1,000 gold bars they seized turned out to be copper bars painted gold.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">War wohl auch nur wieder eine von bereits sehr vielen Falschmeldungen, die vom Gold Cabal jeweils als Vorwand benötigt werden, einen Gold Preis Anstieg abzuwürgen, und uns allen später durch "ihre" Presse mitteilen zu können, der grosse "Goldfund" sei der Grund für den Preisrückfall beim Gold gewesen. Bekanntlich setzten damals, nachdem diese falsche Irak "Gold Fund" Story bekannt wurde, starke Papier Gold Verkäufe ein! TG

The troops may not have found Saddam Hussein, they may not have found the weapons of mass destruction officials insist he was hiding, but they thought they had found 1,000 gold bars. But the ingots seized during raids launched to hunt down Saddam`s men have turned out to be copper bars painted gold, a senior official has admitted. Officials have adjusted their list of campaign successes to include "gold-coloured bars".


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The U.S. military said a bomb-making class inside a mosque triggered a deadly explosion that enraged the Iraqi town of Falluja, where residents vowed Wednesday to wage holy war against U.S. occupiers. U.S. Central Command said a blast at a mosque in Falluja, west of Baghdad, Monday night was caused by people being taught how to make bombs in the building. It said a joint investigation conducted with Falluja police had determined that coalition forces were in no way responsible for the blast. Residents had blamed it on an American air strike -- an accusation U.S. military officials flatly denied. Iraqis living in the town said nine people were killed, including the mosque`s imam, or prayer leader.

Six American soldiers were wounded in Iraq on Tuesday and a group of visiting senators said there could be more attacks on U.S. troops after a fatal blast at a mosque fueled Muslim anger with the occupying forces. There were no signs of easing tensions on Tuesday as three attacks injured six U.S. troops. Attacks on occupying forces have killed 22 U.S. and six British soldiers since May 1. "The war is still on, the risks are still there and casualties could well be taken," said Sen. John Warner, a Republican from Virginia.

About 700 Afghan government reinforcements are being sent to southern mountains near the Pakistan border where about 60 Taliban fighters have been battling government forces for four days. The governor of Zabul province, Hamidullah Tokhi, said there were heavy clashes in the Ata Ghar Mountains on Wednesday but the Taliban fighters could not escape. "The Taliban have no chance, except dying or surrendering,"

North Korea`s ruling party newspaper on Wednesday dismissed U.S. criticism of its missile exports as interference in the communist state`s internal affairs, saying the arms sales were legitimate commerce. The commentary by the Rodong Sinmun daily came amid renewed focus on North Korea`s sales of weapons of mass production and a fresh flurry of diplomatic consultations aimed at halting Pyongyang`s attempts to build nuclear weapons.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The head of the West`s energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, said on Wednesday that current high oil prices were partly to blame for sluggish world economic growth. Claude Mandil said high prices also damaged the long-term interests of oil exporting countries in OPEC, because they would lose market share to rival exporters. "The prices are too high for everybody, too high for the world economy, and that is one of the reasons the economy is sluggish and not recovering very well," Mandil told reporters at a news conference in Vienna.


Comment:

Gold finished trading in New York unchanged as there was little to move the markets ahead of the upcoming extended Independence Day holiday weekend with only tomorrow’s first time unemployment claims report to look forward to. The U.S. dollar was slightly stronger today against most major currencies and with considerable suspicion of Japanese monetary authorities once again having intervened in the currency markets. Funds and speculators appear content to bide their time for now with some minor bargain hunting. The gold price is not expected to change much ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, however, stranger things have happened and some traders may move the market as they position themselves ahead of the extended holiday weekend as U.S. markets will close early tomorrow and not reopen until Monday. One such driver that may spur traders to move on gold other than the currency market is the release of U.S. unemployment data prior to tomorrow’s Wall Street’s “opening bell”.

The name of the game so far has been the U.S. dollar. As the dollar continues to weaken, don’t be surprised to see some Asian countries reallocate a portion of their reserves into gold. In fact it has been known that some central banks have been buyers. Asian central banks are top-heavy in U.S. dollars and as the dollar slides, these banks are under tremendous pressure to rebalance their reserves to a more risk adverse stance with less exposure to the dollar. Some overriding concerns are that the dollar will remain under pressure due to record-breaking current account, trade, and budget deficits. Several high net worth individuals have also been taking positions in gold in recent months. Billionaire George Soros recently admitted as much in a recent interview as he stated that the outlook for the dollar was not very good and that he was buying other currencies “as well as gold”. For individual investors having a position in gold as portfolio insurance has smoothed out the volatility of wild swings in stock and bond markets with minimal cost while providing significant upside potential. As “real” rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) remain stuck in negative territory and with the dollar in a long term secular bear market, gold is recognized as one of the few viable alternatives to financial assets.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

Einmal mehr ein Beweis dafür, dass die Gold und Silber Importe in Indien nicht gefallen sind, sondern im Mai 2003, sogar um sagenhafte 130% zugenommen haben!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=19&sto…

May imports surge on bullion, cotton

Sidhartha in New Delhi
Published : July 3, 2003

Imports of gold, silver, raw and waste cotton and machinery and electrical goods have risen in May this year, pushing up the import bill for the month. The oil import bill, however, fell 9 per cent.

Gold and silver imports rose 137 per cent to Rs 2,915 crore in May this year from Rs 1,200 crore in the same month last year. Similarly, raw and waste cotton imports increased over 185 per cent to Rs 155 crore, while imports of machinery and electrical goods grew 63 per cent to Rs 2,042 crore.

[ThaiGuru]

July 2 - Gold $351.30 unchanged - Silver $4.63 up 7 cents

Steady As She Goes / Silver Pops

Yesterday, silver was not allowed to run up along with gold. That would create too much excitement and also make it harder for the bad guys to put their cap on bullion. With gold coming in lower today, silver charged ahead, as much as 10 cents at one point. Before all this gold/silver price rigging came into play, the two metals often traded off of each other. No more. They trade in spite of each other. When The Gold Cartel goes down for good, gold and silver will once again trade like they used to.

Silver has made a short-term rounded bottom and has also formed a big picture rounded bottom. See:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/93

Silver has been jerked around for so long, it is very difficult to do any kind of technical analysis that holds up. I have been looking for silver to take off for some time and it never does, thanks to the managers of this market. One day it will, and be a sight to behold. Morgan Stanley was a good buyer. Technically, silver doesn’t have any resistance until it reaches $4.95. That’s where it ought to go.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The gold trading was very light as it continues to do some "work" after its recent bashing. Once it takes out $353.50, it should run to $360 in preparation for an assault on $370.

The dollar sold off right near its close ahead of tomorrow’s important jobs report, finishing at 94.40, down .25.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, July 02, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.82, PM $6.14, with world gold at $350.75 and $350.70. Adequate, and ample, for legal imports. Mitsui’s resourceful gold commentator Andy Smith has apparently managed to locate the Indian gold (official) import statistics through April, which show less than 10 tonnes a month in January and February, and an astonishing 130 tonnes total for the following two months. This, of course, is quite consistent with the high premiums seen after gold fell back from the February high. In contrast to the early weeks of the year, India seems quite willing to import with world gold at $350. This, and what UBS refers to this morning as "some interesting reports of returning physical demand" from other quarters, constitutes a huge obstacle to the ambition of the Bears.

TOCOM calmly accepted NY’s dramatic rebound. Volume equal to 31,452 Comex contracts (5% more than yesterday); the active contract rose 4 yen; but $US gold did little, finally going out unchanged from the NY close. The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium has settled back to a normal $1.98. (NY yesterday traded 42,802 lots: open interest rose 2,993 contracts.)

Bullion Bank commentators appear bemused by yesterday’s NY action, defying, as it did some significant technical obstacles, and far exceeding the lead offered by the weaker dollar. (Today’s achievement of holding and even slightly advancing these gains with no help at all from the dollar is actually equally remarkable.) But an obvious explanation arises from reading Mark Hulbert’s column on CBSMarketWatch today. Hulbert reports on studies documenting the habit many equity mutual funds have apparently developed of "marking the close" at quarter end. If this can happen in the stock world, right under the nose of the SEC, and where it is actually illegal, it would hardly be surprising in the less constrained commodity world. Quite possibly the last two weeks of June saw gold under this influence.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Nächster Versuch!

[hpoth]

@ThaiGuru,
Ich weiss das Du auch Crystallex hast und Dich dort auskennst,heute ist im Gold &Money von Bandulet zu lesen, über die Bilanztricks und Verluste mit Derivaten und die Drohung der Börsenaufsicht die Aktie vom Handel auszusetzen, und die Hälfte vorsichtshalber zu verkaufen, damit hat doch Bandulet diese Aktie auf die Todesliste gesezt.Was meinst Du dazu? gruß hpoth

[bluemoons]

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2003/070…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=35514

All that glitters is gold



GOLDEN DAY: Sheikha Aisha bint Khalfan bin Jameel Al Siyabiah inaugurating the Muscat Gold Market yesterday; below, the chief guest going round the shops. — Photos by Rodolfo Alfonso

By John Lopez

MUSCAT — Sheikha Aisha bint Khalfan bin Jameel Al Siyabiah, president of the Public Authority for Craft Industries, yesterday declared open the high-profile Muscat Gold Market, the very first such venture in the Sultanate.

As gold jewellers continue to do their bit to set trends, the Muscat Gold Market has made a memorable debut by opening a real gold souq.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.amex.com/newsDetails/CmnNewsDet.jsp?id=XpressFeed…

IAMGOLD added to AMEX Gold Bugs-HUI index

2003/07/03 11:47:07

---------------------------------------------- TSX Trading Symbol: IMG


AMEX Trading Symbol: IAG 52 Week Trading Range: CDN $4.01--$8.75 Total Shares


Outstanding: 143,746,377 million Fully Diluted: 150,718,380 million


-----------------------------------------------
MARKHAM, ON, Jul 03, 2003 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- IAMGOLD Corporation ("IAMGOLD" or "the Company") (TSX:IMG, AMEX:IAG) is pleased to announce that effective immediately, it has been added to the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) of The American Stock Exchange (The AMEX).
IAMGOLD completed its listing with The AMEX in December of 2002. "We are very pleased with IAMGOLD`s inclusion on the Gold Bugs Index, which will only serve to increase the Company`s liquidity and visibility," said President and CEO Joseph Conway.

IAMGOLD Corporation is a diverse Canadian-based mining company engaged in the exploration and development of precious metals in Africa and South America. The Company also has a large and diverse royalty portfolio including a 1% interest in all diamond production from the Diavik diamond project in Canada.

IAMGOLD holds interests in four operating gold mines in West Africa including: a 38% interest in the Sadiola Gold Mine, a 40% interest in the Yatela Gold Mine, both located in Mali and an 18.9% interest in each of the Tarkwa and Damang Gold Mines, located in Ghana. Attributable production from these mines for 2003 is expected to be 420,000 ounces of gold at an average cash cost of US$215 per ounce.

As of March 31, 2003 IAMGOLD`s gold bullion and cash position stood at US$93.0 million, including US$75.4 million in corporate discretionary cash. The Company is focused on pursuing value-added corporate initiatives via merger and acquisition targets and exploration.


Please note:


This entire press release may be accessed via fax, e-mail, IAMGOLD`s website at http://www.iamgold.com and through Canada Newswire`s website at http://www.newswire.ca


All material information on IAMGOLD can be found at http://www.sedar.com or at http://www.sec.gov

[ThaiGuru]

Zum Traum eines US Wirtschaftsaufschwungs!



http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580…

Unemployment Rate Surges to 9-Year High

Thu Jul 3, 8:50 AM ET Add Business - Reuters to My Yahoo!

By Caren Bohan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate shot up in June to a fresh 9-year high while the economy lost 30,000 jobs, the government said on Thursday in an unexpectedly gloomy report on the labor market.

The jobless rate climbed to 6.4 percent last month from May`s 6.1 percent, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said, a much worse reading than the 6.2 percent forecast by U.S. economists in a Reuters survey. The rate reached the highest level since a matching 6.4 percent in April 1994.

Bond prices rallied, while the dollar and stock futures prices fell.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"This was not good, the whole series looks bad," said James Luke, money manager at BB&T Asset Management Inc. in Raleigh, North Carolina. "The (stock) market is going to take some pause at this ... We were looking across the board for better numbers than this."

The data cast doubt on hopes that have been building in the stock market that the U.S. economy is set for a rebound. Worried about the lackluster state of the economy, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) last week cut short-term interest rates to 1 percent, the lowest since 1958.

Rather than falling, economists had expected payrolls to remain unchanged in the latest month. In a revision that underscored the weakness in the job market, Labor said payrolls fell 70,000 in May instead of the originally reported 17,000 drop.

The unemployment rate is based on a survey of households that is separate from the poll of employers used to calculate the payrolls data.

Among the sectors that contributed to the jobs decline were manufacturing, which fell 56,000, and information industries, which shed 10,000 jobs.

Across the economy, the length of the average workweek was unchanged at 33.7 hours in June. Factory hours were also steady at 40.2 hours, while overtime remained at 4 hours. Lack of growth in the workweek is a less-than-encouraging sign for the future. When companies are poised to begin hiring, they often increase the hours of the workers currently on their staff first.

[ThaiGuru]

http://canada.stockpickreport.com/pr/WRM.htm

Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (TSX:WRM)
StockPickReport.Com Rating: BUY (4)

WHEATON RIVER MINERALS LTD. is a gold mining company.

The near-term trend for the stock`s share volume looks like it`s slowing down. At the same time, based on short-term stochastics, we believe the stock will be moving higher. Finally, prices moved higher for WRMCA in the most recent 5 day period.

Our research indicates probable upside for WRMCA from current prices. WRMCA could see gains from here but those gains may not be striking on a percent basis compared to a stock with a Strong Buy rating.

IMPORTANT information about these stock ratings. CLICK HERE!

http://www.stockpickreport.com/whydoratingschange

If you feel any of the information on Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (TSX:WRM) is incomplete or incorrect, please let us know by clicking here.

http://www.stockpickreport.com/web/stock_comments.asp?ss=WRM…

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Habe zu Crystallex bereits vor einigen Tagen einen englischen Artikel in den Thread gepostet, der sich mit Crystallex befasste, und sehr negativ in der Aussage war. Auch in einem Bericht von Gata werden der Firma Crystallex auch keine guten Noten zugestanden.

Nach meinem heutigen Wissensstand ist Crystallex ein eher hoch spekulatives Investment, mit grossen Risiken, dass sich eher nicht mehr empfiehlt. Bandulet hat Recht, vor dieser Aktie zu warnen.

Meine Empfehlung:

Sicherheitshalber verkaufen!

Ein möglicher Ersatz:

Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (TSX:WRM)

[hpoth]

@ ThaiGuru

DANKE FÜR DEINE NACHRICHT.Gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

Zur Zeit fliesst in unheimlichen, sich kontuinierlich seit 2 Wochen steigenden Mengen, Kapital aus dem Ausland in die Börse von Thailand. Haupsächlich aus Amerika.

Gestern mit über 37 Milliarden Thai Bath erreichte der SET sein höchstes Umsatz Volumen sein 1994. Damals war noch Hochkonjunktur, und Bullmarket angesagt an der Börse von Thailand.

Heute zur Mittagspause waren es auch schon bereits wieder 18,49 Milliarden Bath Umsatz. Das sind für thailändische Verhältnisse wahnsinns Umsatzzahlen.

Der SET steigt seit Wochen, und gestern, und heute wars für mich eine helle Freude. Scheint so als haben die Ausländer gerade wieder zum ersten mal seit der Asien Kriese den SET wieder richtig enteckt.

Aus Zeit Gründen gibt`s die nachfolgenden GATA Meldungen heute ausnahmsweise unredigiert, und auch sonnst muss ich mich etwas rar machen.

Einige User wird`s vielleicht sogar freuen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

July 3 - Gold $350.80 down 50 cents - Silver $4.67 up 4 cents

Gold Ready To Rocket Next Week

"Every man ... should periodically be compelled to listen to opinions which are infuriating to him. To hear nothing but what is pleasing to one is to make a pillow of the mind." -- the Irish Writer St. John Ervine

When I woke up this morning, I saw the dollar was sharply higher and gold was down more than $2. My first thought was the employment report must be a real doozy. Therefore, The Working Group on Financial Markets must have gone into action by ramping up the dollar and blasting gold.

Sure enough:

U.S. Lost 30,000 Jobs in June; Jobless Rate Hit 6.4%

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy lost jobs in June for a fifth month and the unemployment rate rose to a nine-year high of 6.4 percent as slow growth forced companies to fire workers.
Companies eliminated 30,000 jobs after a revised 70,000 were lost in May, more than four times the number originally reported last month, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate rose from 6.1 percent and was higher than the 6.2 percent median forecast. The rate was the highest since April 1994... -END-

Once again, we see the same modus operandi from The Gold Cartel. The more bullish the news is for gold, the greater the cabal`s obvious effort to constrain the price for one reason: Price Action Makes Market Commentary. When the cabal keeps gold from rising, the commentary is negative, or at minimum, it prevents gold excitement from building. When gold does not move up on news which should be very constructive, it also tends to put traders off. It sure is aggravating to watch The Gold Cartel play the same game over and over. They will do so until they are beaten. That day should not be far off.

An indication we are getting closer and closer to the day the cabal is carried out on a stretcher is the action of the bonds. When the horrendous employment numbers were announced, they barely budged and then sold off sharply.

Bonds
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

Despite a weak stock market, the bonds closed on their lows at 115 ’26, down 1 ’16. Their technical breakdown is ACCELERATING.

The bond action tells me our Fed is hitting the wall. Whatever they do from here on in will be regarded as inflationary and hurt the dollar. Further aggressive stimulation by our Fed will be bond bearish. The bond vigilantes understand that and don’t like what they see coming down the pike.

Gold continues to do some "work" in preparation for its assault on $370. The fundamentals are so bullish, it should not take gold very long to get there. It remains in "explosive" mode.

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Silver was firm all day and is plodding its way up. Plenty of room for the specs to pile in as the open interest is only 79,122 contracts. It fell 880 yesterday. There are no gaps to fill, another positive. Silver should be headed for $5 for starters.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, July 03, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.89, PM $6.15, with world gold at $350.60 and $349.80. Marginal, and ample, for legal imports. An Indian newspaper reports that gold and silver imports into India for May were worth about $600 Mm. This suggests that gold imports were less than 54 tonnes, compared with a 65 tonne average in March and April. But world gold was comparatively strong in May, rising from $340 to spend half the month in the $360s and $370s. (June prices were weaker.) In any case this would suggest gold imports for the first half about 15% up on the 2002 average of 34 tonnes a month, and illuminates the magnitude of the recent acceleration. Turkish statistics tell a similar story: 22.2 tonnes imported in June, 100 tonnes for the first half, (versus 54 tonnes in the first half last year: e.g. June almost half the first 6 months of ’02).

Japan was thoroughly discouraged by the loss of momentum in NY yesterday, and by the firming yen. On sharply reduced volume equal to 17,136 Comex contracts (down 46% from yesterday); futures subsided with the active contract closing down 11 yen. Open interest was static (down 20 Comex lots): $US gold slipped 70c from NY’s close, having been matched the close most of the day. (In NY yesterday gold traded 27,568 lots, with open interest falling by 424.)

A modest attempt to rally gold during NY hours yesterday was smothered by what ScotiaMocatta describes as

"selling from a number of sources".

More seriously, another rally effort today in the wake of the dollar faltering after what Reuters described as the "shockingly bad US jobs report" also appears to have been suppressed. If gold had matched to Dollar Index – let alone the Euro – since the turn of the year it would have been over $376 this morning. This is why the physical buying has accelerated. Keeping gold down here is going to require a lot of metal.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW finished a holiday shortened session at 9070, down 73, closing near its lows. The DOG (1663, down 15) made new lows right on the close. The chatter on CNBC was that the stock market held up very well considering the terrible employment news. Price Action Makes Market Commentary. The Working Group on Financial Markets did their job ahead of the July 4th holiday in the US. Friends and relatives can talk up the market at get-togethers and parties in the coming days. They had best enjoy the party while they can. My guess is the stock market is going to be ROCKED in the coming weeks. If the employment numbers are bad now, how are they going to look when various states start laying off people to balance their budgets, which most MUST do? Egad!

Elaine Chou, the US Secretary of Labor, wins The Cafe`s "Baghdad Bob Award" for her spin on the horrendous employment number. On CNBC she said many new workers are now looking for work (back on the unemployment rolls) because they expect a big economic recovery. OK Baghdad.

There was a bit of decent economic news:

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. service industries, the largest part of the economy, expanded in June for a third straight month, a private report showed.
The Institute for Supply Management`s index for retailing, financial services, construction, and other non-manufacturing companies registered 60.6 last month, compared with 54.5 in May. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

The economic news is not good in England either:

CBI calls on Bank of England for rate cut

Larry Elliott, economics editor
Thursday July 3, 2003
The Guardian

Retailers fear Britain`s long consumer boom is coming to an end after June`s mini-heatwave failed to boost spending in the shops, the CBI reported yesterday.
In its monthly snapshot of retailing, the employers` organisation said sales growth last month was disappointing, continuing the slowdown seen since the beginning of the year.
The growing reluctance of consumers to part with their money has forced stores to cut their forecasts of business growth in July and prompted the CBI to call on the Bank of England to cut interest rates next week.
Alastair Eperon, chairman of the CBI`s distributive trades panel, said: "The retail picture for June is particularly disappointing. Consumer spending should have been much higher when compared with June 2002 when high street spending suffered as a result of the Jubilee bank holidays, late half term and the World Cup. –END-

Dear Mr. Murphy,
We read about Repos almost daily now. I don`t know if all the rest of your readers know what they are all about, but I don`t. I wonder if some one in GATA can bring some common talk explanation concerning the Repo issue. Thank you ....

Long time Subscriber
BW Lang

GATA’s Mike Bolser’s response:

Thanks for your inquiry.

Repurchase agreements "repos" are issued by the federal Reserve to their primary dealers, Wall Street Financial houses such as Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley etc. They are borrowed funds that must be repaid to the Fed on the stated expiration day. The duration of the loans ranges from overnight to as long as 28 days.

The primary dealers can buy and sell stocks and futures with these funds just as you or I. When the primary dealers buy index futures for the DOW they support the DOW.

The 1987 Working Group on Financial Markets was created by the Fed to "smooth out" the market volatilities. It is government intervention, plain and simple. Government money used to buy index futures.

When the repo pool, the total of un-expired repo funds, is plotted against the DOW, we see a correlation that suggests that when the pool total falls the DOW follows. This is unrelated to what Wall Street pundits may say about why the DOW rises or falls.

The orange balls are the Fed`s Permanent open market operations. Free money from the Fed to its primary dealers. The Iraq War "Rally" was a result not of market sentiment but of government money used to buy the market index futures.

The red line is the 30-day moving average for the repo pool total. It has topped and we are waiting to see the DOW top and start down.

I hope this helps.

Kindest regards,
Mike

More from Mike:

Hi Bill:
We have a continuation of the topping pattern in the repo pool total 30-day moving average. The new pool totals stand at $26 Billion and provides significant downwards pull on the pool`s ma.



Should the DOW manage to hold -50 levels I will hazard a guess that next week will not be pretty for the blue chips.

We are still awaiting the significant breakage to the down side of the DOW`s 30-day moving average. Referring to the upwards turn in mid-March`s "Iraq War Rally" we see that the DOW`s 30-day moving average turned up very quickly. Will it turn down down just as quickly? The official spin will be poor employment numbers but we know a different reason. The DOW just can`t stay up without government intervention.

Have a great weekend!
Mike

Chuck checked in last evening:

Bill:
Just getting caught up on the `net. Always look forward, first to your work then look at charts, announcements, etc. What has jumped out at me in addition to the nice moves in the juniors is the jump in the Australian and Canadian dollar. Do you think that the manipulation is entirely against the Euro and Yen? But if these currencies break out again, it will be a big bonus for the Canadian gold holders. High River Gold was up 10% after being asleep for weeks. Nevsun also came back to almost $4. MDG breaking out, also.

The other interesting event was that MER recommended MSFT and WMT. How imaginative! Another proxy for a top. Let`s get the first few days of a new quarter out of the way so this thing can finally fall. We should see some gigantic moves in gold and the shares at almost any time. Should be quiet tomorrow, but Monday might be the beginning of the real holiday fireworks, but I have said that before.

Keep the troops focused and steady so they don`t miss this historic move. Chuck

Bill:
Two more observations as I looked through the late tech stuff today. First, the Japanese market after being up over 3% yesterday, leaped another nearly 3% on the opening last night and then proceeded to drop almost 4% after that, finally ending unchanged. This is exhaustion top stuff. Also, the Rydex precious metals numbers dropped very sharply yesterday indicating heavy skepticism towards the gold shares even though they continue to perform very strongly. This indicates that the move in the shares is just beginning. Should be quiet today with most likely another gap down on the opening for the golds. Chuck

John Hathaway has written a wonderful piece at his web site. It starts out:

Gold For Dummies?


Introduction

Gold is a mystery to most investors. This should not be surprising. Aside from occasional poorly timed and ill-informed financial media commentary, gold has almost no presence in the daily flow of investor information. Price quotes, if any, are buried in the commodity section of the financial pages. Many desk screens do not carry commodity quotes. For traders and portfolio managers, gold inhabits a different silo than bonds, equities, and currencies. Few would know how to take a long position in gold even if the idea seemed compelling. That the dollar price of gold has been in a five- year bull market in which gold has outperformed all asset classes would come as a surprise (see chart below). These comments attempt to demystify gold and to spell out the ABC’s of its investment merits.

To read the entire piece, go to:

http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorms.php?id=13…

Interesting takes on the newly found Iraqi gold:

"The ingots snatched during raids launched to hunt down Saddam`s men have turned out to be copper bars painted gold, a senior official admitted Tuesday."

If an occupying country was bent on stealing the occupied country`s gold, what better way to do it than claim the bars are `gold painted copper`? No accounting entries would have to be made to log the gold. The U.S. deposits a like tonnage of copper on account for the Iraqi people and converts the gold to their (ESF) own use. It`s pretty hard to track something that doesn`t exist - or has been made to look like it doesn`t exist.
Have a good weekend Bill! I almost wrote last week - when things were a little bleak - to say that as exasperated as we get sometimes (with the Cabal), I wouldn`t trade worries with them. We fret knowing that we will win in the end. They fret knowing they must lose in the end.
Bob

Subj: Copper Bars - I Don`t Think So

Hello Bill
The US finding copper bars? Try US replaceced gold bars with copper bars. Saddam was totally unprepared for war but he found the time to forge copper bars and paint them gold just in case?

The price of gold was flying so they could get a little more money for their stolen loot. I think you should put someone up in the `crowsnest` to watch out for the Cartel Pirates.

...Another beauty on Vancouver`s winning bid for the 2010 Winter Olympics. The US also sent a delegation to Prague... for the 2012 Summer games and were openly jeered by the Canadians. The Canadian team felt they had no business being there and felt that they were there to intimidate the IOC into NOT voting for Vancouver (North America would not get both games so close). As it turned out, Austria pulled their bid at the last minute and almost ALL of those votes went to Vancouver. Vancouver ended up winning by just 3 votes. It appears that the Europeans will do almost anything to make sure the Americans are not going to push them around.

The Olympics mean big business. However let`s just say is If this is sports, can you imagine what is happening in the business world?

I love the American people, but NOT the Cartel or anyone who thinks like them!!

Regards,
Michael

The big gold news of the day, which received little attention:


Newmont Yandal Operations Placed Into
Voluntary Administration and Note Offer Extended

DENVER, July 3 -- Newmont Mining Corp. today announced that the board of directors of its Australian subsidiary, Newmont Yandal Operations Pty Ltd (Yandal), resolved to
place the company into voluntary administration (a form of insolvency proceeding) in Australia as it is insolvent or likely to become insolvent.

(Full press release may be read in the Appendix)

What a mess! I wonder what is really going on here? What about all the hedged gold that does not exist? Have the positions been covered? If so, who did the covering? Have to stay tuned on this one.

Newmont was tagged on the news, closing off .53 to $32.97. The XAU fell 1.26 to 79.81, while the HUI held steady at 154.65, down only .03. The featured gold share of the day was Golden Star Resources, which took out a quadruple top as it made another multi-year new high close at $2.99, up almost 5%.

The gold shares have performed well for some time. Now, it appears silver has begun its move. Gold was forced down from $370 ONLY by the antics of The Gold Cartel. The physical gold market is very firm. The dollar is on shaky ground. The bond market is reeling. The stock market is vulnerable to a big tumble, one which could come any day now. Interest rates in the US are at 45-year lows and it doesn’t look like the short rates are going up any time soon. All in all, an explosive set up for gold.

Get ready for a gold ROCKET SHIP ride!

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!



www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

@potosi

Hier noch eine neue GATA Meldung zu Newmont, und Yandal!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Newmont Yandal Operations Placed Into
Voluntary Administration and Note Offer Extended

Company press release

3a ET Thursday, July 3, 2003

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030703/lath019_1.html

DENVER, July 3 -- Newmont Mining Corp. today announced
that the board of directors of its Australian subsidiary,
Newmont Yandal Operations Pty Ltd (Yandal), resolved to
place the company into voluntary administration (a form
of insolvency proceeding) in Australia as it is insolvent
or likely to become insolvent.

Thomas Mahoney, Vice President and Treasurer for Newmont,
commented: "We are very disappointed that we were not able
to get 100% acceptance of our offers to acquire the claims of
Yandal`s creditors. We have received acceptances from hedge
counterparties representing 76% of Yandal`s negative
mark-to-market liability as of May 22, 2003, and Note holders
representing 83% of the 8 7/8% Senior Notes due April 2008
not already owned by a Newmont subsidiary. We are optimistic
that the voluntary administration process will be completed in
an expeditious manner."

In conjunction with the voluntary administration process,
Newmont or a subsidiary is making an offer to the administrator
for Yandal that, if accepted, would bring the company out of
voluntary administration. The offer will effectively value the
assets at US$200 million and may result in Yandal`s outstanding
third-party Note holders and hedge counterparty receiving not
more than $0.40 on the dollar. If Newmont`s offer is accepted,
Yandal would be returned to the control of its directors and
employees would continue their employment as usual. In
addition, Newmont will honor any prior unpaid obligations to
Yandal`s employees and offer trade creditors payment in full.
The Newmont offer will require Yandal to enter into a Deed of
Company Arrangement at a meeting of creditors to be held
within one month.

In order to comply with applicable requirements and to allow
Note holders more time to assess these material developments,
Newmont`s subsidiary, Yandal Bond Company Limited (YBCL),
has extended the consent payment deadline and the expiration
of the offer to acquire the Notes to 5:00 p.m., New York City
time, on Friday, July 11, 2003, with respect to Notes not
previously tendered.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. is the dealer manager and Mellon
Investor Services LLC is the depositary and information agent
for the tender offer and consent solicitation. Note holders`
requests for documentation should be directed to Mellon
Investor Services at [phone] (for banks and brokers)
or toll-free [phone]. Questions regarding the transaction
should be directed to Citigroup Global Markets Inc. at (800)
558-3745.

YBCL has previously purchased and paid for the $196.8 million
aggregate principal amount of the Notes tendered on or before
June 26, 2003. YBCL has been advised by Mellon Investor
Services LLC, the depositary for the Note offer, that as of July
2, 2003, no additional Notes have been tendered since June 26,
2003. Yandal, its subsidiaries who have guaranteed the Notes
and the trustee under the Indenture have executed a
supplemental indenture implementing the amendments to the
Indenture consented to by the Note holders who have tendered
the Notes already purchased by YBCL.

The offer to purchase Notes and consent solicitation are
being made solely by the Offer to Purchase and Consent
Solicitation Statement dated May 29, 2003 and the related
Letter of Transmittal and Consent, as they have been and may
be supplemented or amended, which set forth the complete
terms of the tender offer and consent solicitation.

Newmont, based in Denver, is the world`s premier gold mining
company and the largest gold producer with significant assets
on five continents.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Die "U.S. Treasury " hat anscheinend ein weiteres "kleines" Problem!

Der amerikanische Steuerzahler soll auch dieses kleine Problem mit weiteren 400 Mio. Dollar pro Jahr bezahlen

Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://www.detnews.com/2003/business/0307/05/business-209830…

Saturday, July 5, 2003


U.S. Treasury eyes new method to pay banks


By John M. Berry / The Washington Post

WASHINGTON -- A time-honored method by which the U.S. Treasury compensates banks for services they perform for the government has fallen victim to low interest rates, the department announced this week.

Banks perform services for the Treasury such as accepting firms` payments of taxes withheld from employees` pay. The Treasury has been paying for such services by leaving money in accounts on which the banks pay no interest but which they get to use for loans or investments. But as the return the banks can earn on the money has plummeted, the Treasury has had to leave ever more in the accounts and still has fallen behind on what is owed to the banks.

This spring the situation was made much worse because the Treasury had to all but empty its accounts at the banks to pay the government`s bills while Congress balked at raising the limit on the national debt, preventing the Treasury from borrowing money from the public.

So Thursday the Treasury said that instead of paying the banks by keeping interest-free money on deposit, it will issue special securities to the banks that will pay a fixed interest rate. That will eliminate the big account balances, and it will also eliminate the current requirement that the banks set aside regular Treasury securities they own as collateral securing the balances.

Donald V. Hammond, the Treasury fiscal assistant secretary, said the new special securities was " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"an interim approach. That is not where we ultimately want to be."

Hammond said the administration has asked Congress for a " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"permanent" appropriation of nearly " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"$400 million" beginning in fiscal 2004 from which it can simply pay the banks directly for their services.

But until it gets that authority, the Treasury has no way to pay its overdue bills at the banks except to issue the new securities.

[ThaiGuru]

Klare Worte!



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,992008,00.ht…



Corporate crooks put economy at risk, warns Unilever boss

Larry Elliott, economics editor
Saturday July 5, 2003

The Guardian

The criminal behaviour of a hard core of corporate crooks risks prompting a government backlash that will drive genuine risk-takers away from careers in business, the head of one of Britain`s biggest multinationals says today.

Niall FitzGerald, the joint chairman and chief executive of Unilever, said the Enron and WorldCom scandals meant chief executives were now seen as even less trustworthy than lawyers or estate agents.

In an outspoken interview with the Guardian, Mr Fitz Gerald said those running boardrooms could be divided into three categories:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "There are the crooks, there are the incompetents, and there are the mostly competent."

Only 5% were crooks, he said, but a recent poll had shown that 86% of the public believed executives were up to no good.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "The crooks should be driven out, tried and put in jail. The incompetents, once they have manifestly been seen to be incompetent, should be taken from their responsibilities and allowed to do something else. The mostly competent should be judged on what they deliver."

Government ministers have started to reflect public disquiet at big payouts to underperforming executives. Mr FitzGerald - whose pay package from Unilever was £2m last year - said salaries should be transparent, have demanding criteria, and be based on the principle that " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"people who don`t perform don`t get paid".

Mr FitzGerald said there was a danger that the assumption of blanket criminality would be used to impose draconian new laws on companies which would damage wealth creation.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"If governance structures are based on that assumption, the mostly competent people, the risk takers, will be driven out of business altogether," he said.

Mr FitzGerald said the corporate culture of the 1990s had encouraged criminal behaviour. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The reward for being a crook was greater" he said.

In the US, he said, a chief executive officer earned 50 times the wage of the average worker in 1990, but 500 times as much by 2000. "The productivity of the average US CEO did not increase tenfold in the 1990s," Mr FitzGerald added.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"So my question is, when did we lose a sense of proportion and value?"

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Articles.asp?Article=55655&Sn…



Vol XXVI NO. 107 Saturday 5 July 2003

Blair warning on euro

LIVERPOOL, England:

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said yesterday it would be a "catastrophic" error of judgement for Britain to declare it would never join the euro.

Speaking to supporters of his ruling Labour Party in Liverpool, northwest England, Blair said 10 nations in eastern Europe and the Mediterranean had taken a "historic decision" to join an enlarged European Union in 2004, and that the whole nature of Europe was changing as a result.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "So just imagine now ... when the whole nature of Europe is changing, if we paralyse this new Europe and said, `We were never going to join the single currency`," Blair said.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"It would be a major, catastrophic error of diplomatic judgement."

On June 9 Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown ruled out an immediate bid by Britain to join the euro, stressing that the economic conditions were still not ripe for the government to call a referendum on the issue.


weiter.....

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Articles.asp?Article=55655&Sn…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/030704/b070455.html

Cambior declines offer to settle $1 billion lawsuit against Guyana gold mine

02:58 AM EDT Jul 05
ROSS MAROWITS

MONTREAL (CP) - Residents involved in a class-action lawsuit against the Canadian owners of a gold mine in Guyana are willing to negotiate a settlement that protects their health, a representative said Friday.

"We don`t want to get involved in any long, drawn-out litigation," said Gustav Jackson, executive director of the Guyana Research and Environmental Education Network.

A $1 billion US lawsuit was filed in May against Longueuil, Que.-based Cambior Inc. (TSX:CBJ). The suit was filed on behalf of 23,000 people who claim to have suffered from a 1995 spill of 2.9 million cubic metres of cyanide-tainted slurry into the Essequibo River downstream from the Omai gold mine.

Robert LaValliere, Cambior`s manager of investor relations, said the company has no plans to settle because there`s no foundation to the lawsuit.

He claimed the mine doesn`t release any cyanide, despite suggestions from Jackson that 4.5 kilograms of the substance are released daily. Samples taken from the river show that levels of cyanide and other chemicals are below guidelines set by U.S., Canadian and Guyanese standards, added LaValliere.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"This class-action is frivolous and we will defend it vigorously and that`s it."

A commission of inquiry established by the Guyana government concluded that the contaminated water wasn`t a serious threat to life or posed a health hazard to residents.

Residents have complained of chronic problems such as vomiting, rashes, diarrhea, skin lesions, headaches since the spill.

The river is used for drinking, bathing and commerce. They claim the ecosystem has been ruined, along with damage caused to their health.

"What they do know from the scientific evidence that we`ve garnered so far, is that for years to come - and I believe for a millennium and probably for an eternity - they will continue to suffer from the dumping of hazardous and toxic materials that will continue to drain from that site," Jackson told reporters on the steps of the Montreal courthouse.

Residents want a constant supply of potable water, independent monitoring of the site and participation in a plan that will oversee the mine`s closure in 2005.

"The money is secondary," he said, noting there are some claims for damage.

An original lawsuit filed in Quebec was dismissed in 1997 because the judge felt it should have been filed in the South American country. That suit was dismissed in Guyana in 2002 on technical grounds, says Dennison Smith, the group`s U.S. lawyer.

© The Canadian Press, 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Diese Quelle des Gold Cabals ist nun wie es scheint auch bald trocken!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

Canada sells one quarter of gold reserves in June



Friday July 4, 8:48 AM EDT

(Recasts throughout, all figures in U.S. dollars.)

OTTAWA, July 4 (Reuters) - Canada sold about one quarter of its official gold reserves in June but lost $2 million on the transaction because of slumping bullion prices at the end of last month, a government official said on Friday.

Gold sales in June totaled 114,064 ounces, leaving government holdings at about 300,000 ounces on June 30, when the metal closed at $346 an ounce from May 30 when it closed at $361.40 an ounce, Finance Department data showed.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The gains or losses are based on what the selling price of the gold was relative to its previous valuation at the end of the previous month. So, it was $2 million lower than the previous month-end valuation," the official said.

Canada has a policy of gradually selling off its gold reserves and replacing them with interest-bearing instruments.

Overall Canadian foreign reserve holdings fell by $724 million to $36.7 billion in June, largely due to exchange rate effects which accounted for $395 million in declines.

Slightly more than half of Canada`s foreign reserves are held in U.S. dollar-denominated assets so the Canadian dollar`s appreciation of more than 15 percent so far this year has trimmed the relative value of government holdings.

Canada also paid out $213 million foreign-currency debt that came due as well as interest charges and cross-currency swap payments.


©2003 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Economy/0,,2-8-25_13829…

HIV rate 30% at gold mines

Cape Town - About three times as many South African gold miners are HIV-positive compared to their diamond-mining colleagues, according to Minerals and Energy Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

Estimates for the country`s gold mines are that 30% of the workers have HIV.

In a written response to a parliamentary question, tabled on Friday, she said the total number of HIV-positive mine workers was not known with certainty.

However, some figures were available from studies commissioned by mining companies and the department of health.

These showed infection rates varied according to the type of mining operation and the province in which the mine was located.

The HIV rates for the various sectors were:

Gold: 30%;

Platinum: 20% to 24%;

Coal: 15 to 17%; and,

Diamonds: 8% to 11%.

"Generally, these estimates are based on actuarial assessments, voluntary counselling and testing initiatives, as well as estimations from antenatal data from the department," Mlambo-Ngcuka said.

[ThaiGuru]

http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/203551.htm

Faber/Prechter - Inflation/Deflation - Suizid

Hier ein kleiner Part aus Marc Fabers Buch "Tomorrows Gold - Asia´s age of discovery"

Der Part ist aus Kapitel 12.

Viel Spaß beim Lesen und darüber nachdenken.....

Und übrigens: Der Grund für Fabers ständige, harte Angriffe gegen Greenspan: Faber arbeitet vor rund 20 - 25 Jahren mit Greenspan zusammen und war schon damals von dessen unglaublicher Blödheit genervt.....

Es ist noch nicht wirklich schön übersetzt - nur "roh":

Vor kurzem habe ich einen ausgezeichneten Report von meinem Freund Robert Prechter bekommen, der den Titel trug „Kann die Fed die Deflation stoppen ?“. Prechter (Author des Bestsellers „Conquer the Crash“) interpretiert voll zutreffend, daß die Fed oder jede andere Zentralbank die Deflation nicht stoppen kann. Aber am Ende seines Reports erhebt er einen Einspruch, indem er sagt:

„Ich kann keine richtigen Kräfte entdecken kann, die der Deflation entgegentreten könnten, nachdem die Deflation ausgebrochen ist. Am Ende, wenn es nicht mehr viel zu zerstören gibt, ist Inflation oder vielleicht sogar Hyperinflation durchaus wahrscheinlich. Ich denke, daß diese Ereignisse für den nächsten Kondratieff-Zyklus sogar sehr wahrscheinlich sind. Wenn sich eine Regierung auf die Politik der Hyperinflation einläßt, so wie es die Konföderation in den 1860ern, Deutschland in den frühen 20ern und Frankreich nach dem 2. Weltkrieg taten – dann ist der monetäre Pfad komplett unterschiedlich von dem der Deflation, aber ironischerweise ist das Endergebnis das gleiche, wie das eines deflationären Crashs. Am Ende der Hyperinflation sind alle in der hyperinflationierten Währung geführten Bankkonten zusammen wesentlich weniger wert, als sie es zu Beginn waren – manchmal sogar gar nichts. Die Gesamtschulden sind zusammengeschrumpft oder verschwunden, weil die Banknoten in der abgewerteten Währung ausgestellt wurden...In diesem Sinne ist das Ergebnis auch mit Hyperinflation die Zerstörung von Geld und Kredit, was nichts anderes als Deflation ist.“

Robert Prechter, „The Elliott Wave Theorist“, April 2002

Wir behandelten die heimische Hyperinflation in den 80ern in Mexico und Lateinamerika mit der gleichzeitigen Deflation durch den Wechselkursmechanismus vorher in Kapitel 10. Nach Prechters Meinung gibt es etwas, was die Inflation inder unmittelbaren Zukunft beschleunigen könnte. Er schreibt:

„Wie kann man feststellen, ob meine Schlußfolgerungen bezüglich der Deflation falsch sind und das anstatt der Deflation Inflation oder Hyperinflation stattfindet ? Es gibt zwei feinfühlige Barometer für die wichtigen, monetären Trends. Das eine ist der Devisenmarkt. Wenn der Preis des Dollars gegenüber anderen Währungen beginnt zusammenzubrechen, dann fürchtet der Markt entweder die Dollar-Inflation oder daß der Wert des Dollars sich nicht in einem Klima des schwindenen Vertrauens halten kann. Das andere, noch viel wichtigere ist der Goldmarkt. Ich hoffe Gold für niedriegere Preise am Ende des deflationären Trends empfehlen zu können, aber wenn Gold über 400 US$ pro Unze steigt, wäre ich wahrscheinlich überzeugt, daß das Haupttief bereits durchschritten worden ist.“

Während ich mit Prechter übereinstimme, daß die Fed die Deflation nicht stoppen kann, fürchte ich, daß in den USA keine Deflation wie in den 30ern auftreten wird, als die Preise um 30 % fielen. Ich denke eher, daß – so wie Prechter es darstellt – diese mittels des Devisenmarktes auftreten wird, genauso wie durch einen gegen einen Korb von Rohstoffen abwertenden Dollar – und wenn nicht „in der unmittelbaren Zukunft“, dann zumindest innerhalb der nächsten zwei bis drei Jahre. Der Grund für diesen Pessimismus ist, daß es sich die USA mit ihren riesigen Schuldenlasten einfach keine Deflation leisten können, weil ansonsten das System quasi sofort bankrott wäre. Man darf nicht vergessen, daß die Schuldenlast wesentlich höher ist, als im Jahr 1929, weil (wie man in Kapitel 6, Bild 3 sehen kann) das Verhältnis zwischen Schulden und dem GDP nach dem Jahr 1929 stark gestiegen ist. Die Schulden verblieben in etwa auf dem gleichen Niveau, während sich das GDP um 30 % reduzierte, was zu einem signifikanten Anstieg dieses Verhältnisses führte.

Aber als Besitzer von Goldaktien, physischem Gold und verschiedenen Devisen hoffe ich aufrichtigst, daß Prechter damit Recht hat, daß es eine wirkliche Deflation im heimischen Preisniveau in den USA geben wird. In diesem Fall wäre das wirtschaftliche Chaos komplett, weil die Ausfallraten bei den Unternehmen noch mehr ansteigen würde, als es bereits in den letzten 12 Monaten geschehen ist. Gleichzeitig würde das Vertrauen und der blinde Glaube an die Allmächtigkeit von Alan Greenspan letztlich zusammenbrechen und zu einer Panik führen. Unter solchen Bedingungen ist es nicht unvorstellbar, daß der Goldpreis durch die Decke gehen kann. Sowohl mit, als auch ohne Inflation sollten die Investoren physisches Gold und Silber, Gold- und Silberaktien, einen Korb an Rohstoff-Futures und Aktien von Firmen aus rohstoffreichen Volkswirtschaften besitzen.

Die Investoren dürfen niemals Law´s Experiment mit Papiergeld vergessen. Anfangs war es ein großartiger Erfolg und kurbelte die französische Wirtschaft an. Auf seinem Hochpunkt 1719 war Law einer der am meisten bewunderten Personen in Europa. Aber der Mississippi Plan ging schief und Law kam in Ungnade, weil die Banque Royle zu stark daran glaubte, daß sie jedes Problem mit einem steigenden Papiergeldangebot lösen könne. Als Law dann letztlich bemerkte, daß der Feind der Vertrauensverlust in das Papiergeld und eine sich beschleunigende Inflation sind, war der Schaden bereits angerichtet. Er versuchte dann den Preis der Mississippi-Aktie festzusetzen, genauso wie einige Regierungen in den letzten Jahren versuchten, ihre Aktienmärkte zu stützen.

Wir dürfen nicht vergessen, daß nach dem Treffen des Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) im Januar 2002 die ein Fed-Beamter „unkonventionelle Maßnahmen“ erwähnte - wenn die Geldpolitik ineffektiv sein würde - : wie zum Beispiel: „Kauf von US Aktien“ und – wie später angedeutet wurde –die Fed „kann theoretisch alles kaufen, um Geld in das System zu pumpen“, inklusive „Staats- und Landesschulden, Immobilien und Goldminen – jeden Vermögenswert“.

Daß diese Maßnahmen genauso dem Untergang geweiht sind, wie Law´s Versuch den Preis der Mississippi-Aktie bei 9.000 Livres zu fixieren ist offensichtlich. Wenn die Fed solche Maßnahmen einführt (und ich bin mir sicher, daß sie es machen wird, weil sie aus der Zeit Law´s überhauptnichts gelernt hat), dann wird Prechters Hyperinflations- und Währungszusammenbruchs-Szenario unsere wirtschaftliche Zukunft gestalten. Alleine bereits die Tatsache, daß diese „unkonventionellen Maßnahmen“ bei einem FOMC-Meeting zur Diskussion standen, bereitet mir Schaudern, weil ich an die freien Märkte und das kapitalistische System glaube – aber die Botschaft ist klar und deutlich. Man könnte sogar tatsächlich behaupten, daß die Fed bereits versuchte den Markt zu stützen, indem sie die Zinssätze in noch nie dagewesener Gechwindigkeit gesenkt hat (siehe Tabelle 1) und das Geldangebot massiv erhöht hat. Es ist nutzlos zu sagen, daß die Fed weiterhin alles nur notwendige unternehmen wird, um Deflation zu vermeiden – und genau deshalb müssen sich die Investoren auf die Konsequenzen dieses Finanzsuizids vorbereiten.

[Klosterwein]

Zur Manipulationsthese paßt hervorragend dieser Artikel, einige Tage alt, aber zeitlos aktuell:

http://money.cnn.com/2003/06/29/news/international/bis.reut/…

Central bankers eye unusual steps

Rare moves like buying financial assets may become routine, Greenspan says, according to bankers.
June 29, 2003: 2:03 PM EDT



BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - Central bankers from around the world Sunday discussed ways to prevent deflation and kick start lackluster global growth, including unorthodox policies such as buying up financial assets.

At an annual meeting of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), bankers grappled with mounting concerns that falling prices in top industrialized nations could spiral into a deflationary cycle that undermines growth.

The strategies under discussion included setting specific targets for inflation rates as one way to prevent deflation from taking hold in advanced economies outside Asia.

Designing monetary policy to achieve a targeted inflation rate can be helpful not only to moderate price pressures, but also to boost prices when they fall too low, some said.

"Everybody was very confident about it," Gordon Richardson, former Bank of England Governor, told Reuters after the closed-door session.

"It was a theoretical discussion without any sharp corners," said Matti Louekoski, deputy governor of the Bank of Finland.

According to several central bankers attending the discussion, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said measures once considered unorthodox might become conventional, such as buying financial assets.

"We used to watch only commodity prices, exchange rates and interest rates, but now it seems we also have to examine or monitor asset prices," said one.

Policymakers are predicting a "gradual, sluggish pickup across the world moving into next year," Bank of England Governor Sir Edward George told Reuters on Saturday.

Uncertainties abound
But there is a lack of widespread confidence in this forecast, given already low interest rates, a falling U.S. dollar and stubbornly weak output in the major economic blocs -- Europe, the United States and Japan.

"We only expect very slow recovery, but of course we have some uncertainties that are more or less serious," Louekoski said.

Even though underlying economic fundamentals remain uncertain at best, the solid rally enjoyed by stock markets in the second quarter should be welcomed as a sign of increased investor confidence, some central bankers said.

"Clearly there is some optimism regarding the future. I take it as a good sign... If it is justified, we`ll have to wait and see, but I think it may be sustainable," said Umayya Troukann, governor of the Central Bank of Jordan.

Others, however, said the gains were simply a recovery from the paltry performance at the start of the year, helped by relief at the end of the conflict in Iraq.

"We probably won`t see further rapid growth in the second half," one central bank official said.

Growth this year in the world`s top industrial nations is forecast at a meager 1.7 percent, according to forecasting firm Consensus Economics -- no better than last year.

The Fed last Wednesday pruned interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a 45-year low of 1 percent, and the European Central Bank trimmed rates earlier in June to a record low 2 percent.

The BIS, which acts as a forum for the world`s central banks, is due to publish its 73rd annual report on Monday.

[ThaiGuru]

@Klosterwein

So ist es, die "private" FED manipuliert nach Lust und Laune, und die meisten Leute wollen leider nichts davon wissen, und lassen es geschehen, so wie wenn manipulieren die natürlichste Sache der Welt wäre.

Es geschieht bei den Devisen, bei den Aktien, bei den Bonds, beim Silber, und ganz ausgeprägt seit Jahren beim Gold.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Broad money supply (M3) jumped $21.1 billion last week, with a 10-week gain of $190.1 billion (11.6% annualized). Demand and Checkable Deposits declined $4.6 billion, while Savings Deposits expanded $9.6 billion (up $47.9 billion over four weeks). Small Denominated Deposits declined $1.9 billion, as Retail Money Fund deposits added $1.5 billion. Institutional Money Fund deposits jumped $16.9 billion, the strongest gain since early March. Large Denominated Deposits increased $8.7 billion. Repurchase Agreements were about unchanged and Eurodollar dipped $1.3 billion. Elsewhere, Total Bank Credit declined $7.2 billion (while Total Bank Assets increased $47.7 billion). Securities holdings dipped $2.7 billion, with 3-week declines of $24.4 billion. Loans and Leases declined $4.5 billion. Commercial and Industrial loans decreased $3.8 billion, Real Estate loans dropped $13.5 billion, and Consumer loans declined $5.5 billion. Security loans jumped $14.5 billion. Total Commercial Paper increased $21.1 billion last week, with Financial CP borrowings up $21.4 billion.

Foreign (“custody”) Official Holdings of U.S. and Agency Debt jumped $10.1 billion (Treasuries up $7.3 billion and agencies up $2.8 billion) to a record $943.3 billion. “Custody” holdings have surged $56.3 billion over the past nine weeks, and are up $136.5 billion since the first of November (25% annualized growth). Year-over-year, “custody” foreign central bank holdings of U.S. securities are up 19%.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.nationalpost.com/search/site/story.asp?id=E29C3BD…

Ominous trade heats up in Japan

All eyes on capital flows: US$ will plunge if Japanese investors dump U.S. bonds.

Jacqueline Thorpe

Financial Post

All eyes may have been glued to U.S. payrolls yesterday but the real fireworks were taking place half a world away.

The rout in the Japanese government bond market turned into a full-scale retreat and its stock market neared a 10-month high, a confluence of events that holds major implications not only for Japan but the global economy as well.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"There`s some interesting global implications," said Erik Nillson, senior international economist at Bank of Nova Scotia. "Since Japan is the world`s premier capital exporter, if longer-term yields in Japan start backing up that is bound to have implications for yields elsewhere, particularly for those countries which are are large capital importers. And who is the largest capital importer in the world?"

That would be the United States. It would see its currency dive sharply if the capital took flight and retreated overseas.

Everyone knew that when Japanese investors finally got fed up with minuscule bond yields, the retreat would be swift and severe -- and it has been.

The yield on the 10-year bond surged 20.5 basis points in just one day yesterday, after a government auction failed to inspire. That was its biggest rise in four years and pushed the yield to 1.11%, nearly triple its record low of 0.435% on June 11.

The Nikkei 225 meanwhile, had its busiest day of trading in 14 years. Though it closed up just 0.34% at 9624.80 yesterday it has rallied 27% since reaching a 20-year low in April.

The catalyst for the turnabout may have been some glimmers of recovery in the beleaguered Japanese economy, including the quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday, which showed sentiment among large manufacturers rising to its highest level since March, 2001.

But Japan also seems to be picking up on what other stock and bond markets around the world have already sniffed out: the U.S. economy appears poised for recovery.

A couple of major Wall Street firms have jumped on the bandwagon.

Following the lead of Lehman Brothers Inc earlier this week, Merrill Lynch & Co. advised investors yesterday to raise their exposure in Japanese equities from "underweight" to "neutral."

"Although the global macro environment is not as pro-cyclical as we would like, the events of the past two weeks are hard to ignore," David Bowers, Merrill`s chief global investment strategist, said in a research note.

Yet Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui must be squirming in his shoes for what is good for the Japanese stock market investors may not be good for the Japanese economy.

The sudden, sharp rise in bond yields will jack up borrowing costs in an economy that is in such poor shape that prices and wages have been falling for five years.

Japan`s fragile banks are also laden with heavy bond portfolios. Though gains on stock market should mitigate some of the recent losses, the banks were the big losers in the stock market rally yesterday.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Many investors were believed to have piled up JGBs massively in their portfolios during April and May," Hidenori Suezawa, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Tokyo, said. "According to my estimate, many of those positions fell into negative territory after the yield on 10-year bonds rose above 0.92%."

Of course, Japan has been on the brink of recovery many times over its lost decade, as has the United States over the past two years. So this slump in the bond market could be a mere blip, and yields could once again head lower if either rally fails to materialize.

But if a U.S. recovery provides the catalyst for Japan to finally get its act together, then the United States could be the big loser.

According to the U.S. Treasury, Japanese investors hold just under US$400-billion of U.S. government bonds. This makes them the biggest foreign holder of U.S. treasuries, with approximately one third of the market. If they decided to dump them in favour of recovering markets back home, it would put further pressure the U.S. dollar. U.S. bond yields may have to rise to compete in a more balanced world economy.

If this transition happens gradually, it would be a good thing, as the U.S. current account deficit, currently sitting at whopping 5% of GDP, would finally recede.

If it happens quickly, the U.S. dollar could crack as invest…

"Successful structural reform in Japan could end up being a shocking reminder of just how dependent America has become on the rest of the world for capital," Mr Bowers at Merrill Lynch said in his report.


[e-mail]

© Copyright 2003 National Post

[ThaiGuru]

[bluemoons]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/rodin070703.html

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
(07.07.2003)

Die Ölförderung nicht weiter zu senken, fordert die Internationale Energie-Agentur von der Opec mit Hinweis auf die nach wie vor geringen Vorräte.

Gold leihen derzeit kaum einmal zwanzig Zentralbanken aus, berichtet SocGen.

An den Märkten für Industriemetalle ist angesichts der jüngsten Konjunkturdaten in den Sommermonaten mit geringeren Wachstumsraten zu rechnen, erklärt Macquarie Research.

Die Metallpreise dürften sich wegen der unklaren konjunkturellen Bedingungen bis auf weiteres in den zuletzt verzeichneten Spannen halten, vermutet Barclays Capital.

Blei und Zink stehen unter dem Einfluss der Nachricht, dass die zum Konzern Glencore gehörende Hütte Portovesme auf Sardinien von Ende September oder Anfang Oktober an für fünf Monate geschlossen wird.

Bei Aluminium hat sich wieder eine Backwardation herausgebildet, stellt CSFB fest und schließt daraus, dass sich der Markt mehr im Gleichgewicht befindet, als es die meisten Analytiker derzeit denken.

Am Kupfermarkt könnte 2003 ein Produktionsdefizit von 100 000 Tonnen und 2004 ein weiteres von 300 000 Tonnen entstehen, erwartet SocGen.

Nickel verfügt über die aus Sicht der Haussiers günstigsten fundamentalen Bedingungen unter allen börsengehandelten Industriemetallen, meint CSFB.

Platin kostet 2003 durchschnittlich 623 $ und 2004 im Mittel 635 $ je Feinunze, schätzt Barclays Capital.

Die Ölmühlen in Russland verfügen über eine recht stabile Kapazität von annähernd 4,2 Millionen Jahrestonnen, wird aus dem USDA berichtet.

Die Rapsernte in Polen wird 2003/04 wegen Winterschäden gegenüber der laufenden Saison von 995 000 Tonnen auf 740 000 Tonnen sinken, wird aus dem USDA berichtet.

Der indische Import von Speiseölen hat im Mai den Rekord von 725 000 Tonnen erreicht, wird aus dem USDA berichtet.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 2003 Tauros GmbH - www.taurosweb.de

[silvo]

Kaum geht Gold ein paar Pünktchen zurück, schon herrscht wieder größter Pessimismus.

Dabei sind die Minen bombenfest,
Silber schaut z.Zt. sehr gut aus!

In EURO gerechnet ist Gold sogar etwas gestiegen!

Ich bleib auf jeden Fall optimistisch und voll investiert!!

[silverpwd]

Ich denke diesemal wird Gold durch die 340 rauschen und dann kann man von aufkommenden Pessismismus sprechen..

Und erst recht, wenns durch die 330 geht, dann werden die Gold-Zertis und OS-Calls ausgemüllt.

Aber noch ist ja alles in Ordnung mitn Trend...

[silverpwd]

Noch einen Satz zu echten Pessimismus:
Wenn man mit zittriger Hand und Schweiss auf dem Gesicht mit einer grossen Order auf den Kauf-Knopf drückt (bei DAX 2240 war das bei mir der Fall )
Und davon, denn Gold wird ja langfristig bestimmt steigen , ist Gold noch weit enfernt. Allerdings der Bruch der 340 und anschliessend der 330 dürfte einen Schritt in richtige Richtung sein .

[hpoth]

Bitte keine Panik auf der Titanic, bis 330$ geht noch alles
gut außerdem ist MACD im aufwärts Trend Kurskorekturren gehöhren eben dazu, es wäre ja auch nicht gut wenn es schnurstraks nach Norden ging um so heftiger ist die Korrektur.Ich versthe auch nicht immer wieder dieses Gejammer über den Goldpreis, gur Ding braucht eben seine Zeit und der Höhepunkt des Goldzyklus haben wir noch nicht erreichtl der liegt wahrscheinlich in 2004 und 2005 genau weis das niemand.Guten Abend hpoth

[silvo]

Was man jedoch genau weis:

Verbraucherkredite in den USA um 7,3 Mrd. auf 1,76 Billionen USD gestiegen!!!!!!!!



Wer zum jetzigen Gold-Kurs seine Krügerrand verscherbelt, dem ist wirklich nicht zu helfen!!!

[hpoth]

Ja da hast Du recht!! aber jeder soll doch sein Ding selber richten wenn er meint das wärs, ich jedenfalls kaufe dazu.gruß hpoth

[bluemoons]

Is Red China the Big Silver Short?

By: Theodore Butler





Sometimes, but very rarely, through sheer intelligence and experience, one is able to pinpoint a future event with remarkable precision. Kind of like the scene in the movie, "The Godfather", where the old Don, wounded and aging, warns and counsels his son-successor to beware of him who comes first to make the peace, as he will be the true enemy. That was the movies, of course, but I have my own silver Godfather of sorts in my friend Izzy. I must say that he is the smartest person I have encountered in my life. For years, he has been counseling me that one of the signs that we were likely to explode soon in price, would be the appearance, out of the blue, of bearish stories on silver. He also said that by analyzing the stories carefully, when they came, we could learn the identity of the big silver short.

When I read the following story released today, Izzy`s prediction rang loud and clear. After all, who would be more likely to spread bearish stories than a big short? I want to post the entire story here, in the interest of objective analysis:

Shanghai, July 7 (Dow Jones) - China`s silver exports in 2003 are expected to reach at least 2,100 metric tons as steady gains for spot silver prices in global markets will encourage more exports in the second half of this year, an executive with a Beijing-based think-tank said Monday. Tang Wujun, vice general manager of semi-official think-tank Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., predicted that the upward trend in spotsilver would last through the rest of this year if a global economic recovery took place.

Although spot silver has fallen from around $5.10 a troy ounce in mid-2002, it has been posting slight but steady gains recently. It was quoted at $4.67-$4.69/oz at 0700 GMT in London Monday, up slightly from $4.48-$4.52/oz quoted a month ago.

Furthermore, "our silver production each year is pretty much larger than our consumption... Therefore, we have to seek overseas buyers to digest our large supply," Tang told Dow Jones Newswires on the sidelines of the China Silver Forum in Shanghai.

China is expected to produce a total of 2,400 tons of silver metal from silver ores as well as slightly over 2,000 tons of silver metal from recycled metal scrap, according to Tang. The country`s silver consumption is pegged at only 1,800 tons in 2003. Although this represents an increase of 10% from last year, it is still much lower than total output this year.

In order to reduce the severe oversupply of silver, the Chinese government was likely to sell less state reserves to the public this year, sources close to the government said.

Last year, the government sold 1,600 tons of silver from its reserves, making it the world`s largest seller of silver.
---
China Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires, (86-21) 6218-3268
[e-mail]

Now that you`ve read the entire story, I`d like to analyze it. First off, it has a distinctly bearish bent. There`s no other way to interpret, "the severe oversupply of silver....". Remember, we are talking about a commodity in a documented worldwide deficit. Oversupply and deficit are contradictory. It`s either one or the other, you can`t have both. You either believe the accepted deficit statistics published by western market sources, which are verified by the decline in visible inventories, or you believe a Communist government`s attempt to influence the market. And please don`t overlook the obvious. Ask yourself this - why is Red China suddenly so generous and open in sharing sensitive commodity information? Do you think they are trying to help you?

As far as the numbers used in story, I will assume them to be correct. China does refine, from ores and recycled material combined, 4400 tons of silver per year, or about 140 million ounces, making them the largest silver refiner in the world. What the story doesn`t say is that the bulk of these ores and recycled material are imported into China, as there`s no way you can recycle 2000 tons of silver when you consume 1800 tons. As I have previously written about China, it has become the refiner of silver of last resort, due to its blind eye towards pollution. In other words, China is refining silver that was previously refined elsewhere, there has been no net increase in world silver refining production or capacity. The production capacity was switched to China. The story avoided that point - intentionally, in my opinion.

Also of interest in the story was the fact that domestic Chinese consumption grew 10% last year, or almost 200 tons. That means if Chinese silver consumption grows by that amount over the next five years (a given, according to consensus expectations), China will be consuming 1000 more tons of silver annually, or an additional 30 million ounces than currently.

The most important information in the story was the very last sentence, which stated that the Chinese sold 1,600 tons, or over 50 million ounces, from government holdings. It said that China was the world`s largest silver seller. Please think about that for a moment. In spite of an obvious attempt to show how much silver China was producing and exporting, there was the stark reality that the Red Chinese government sold (dumped, via leasing) more than 50 million ounces of silver last year, from official government stockpiles. That is all you need to know. It shows how the talk of oversupply is utter nonsense. It confirms the worldwide deficit in silver. In fact, it does a lot more than that.

Recent statistics show a worldwide deficit in silver of around 65 million ounces. That means that just one country, Red China, supplied almost 80% of the existing inventories necessary to balance that deficit. Clearly, without this "donation" from the Red Chinese, silver prices would be much, much higher. If the Chinese didn`t dump more than 50 million ounces of existing inventory on the market, the silver would have to come from other sources. If it had to come from other sources, only sharply higher prices could have drawn it to the market. That`s how markets work. Stated simply - Red China, just about by itself, has kept silver prices depressed.

Two questions should be crossing your mind - one, what would the price of silver have been if China didn`t dump 50 million ounces from official holdings? If you believe in the law of supply and demand, then you know what the answer is - a lot higher. The second question is why would the Chinese dump silver (at historically low prices) at all? Especially when so much refining capacity has been shifted to China. After all, you would think the Chinese would benefit from higher prices and would work towards those higher prices. It is in the attempt to answer this question logically, that my silver Godfather`s prediction rings true - Red China is probably the big short in silver. If true, there is one thing of which you can be certain - Red China is working hand in hand with one or more of the Silver Managers

Why would China (or a group of Chinese companies working together) be the big short in silver? There are several possibilities. One, is to make money. As I wrote recently, the Silver Managers have made billions of dollars from COMEX futures and options. Maybe Red China was the big customer that the Silver Managers were hiding behind and working with. They divided the profits. Profits that came from the technical funds and others. Profits made possible from the market control gained by being the world`s largest silver seller. With Red China working in cahoots with the Silver Managers, the CFTC would be tricked into thinking this was legitimate hedging. Legitimate, in a pig`s foot. If Red China was the big short on the COMEX, while at the same time dumping inventory to depress the price, that doesn`t make the price any less manipulated. It just means that China was the mastermind and/or muscle behind the manipulation.

Other possibilities for why China would manipulate silver prices, include an even uglier motivation than just amassing big COMEX trading profits. China is obviously dramatically increasing its share of world silver refining capacity. Perhaps Red China`s motive is to keep silver prices artificially low, by dumping silver on the market and shorting like crazy on the COMEX, in order to drive other refining competitors out of business. Motive or not, that is exactly what has occurred. Once enough competition is eliminated, Red China will be in position to set prices to the upside, since they control such a dominant silver refining market share. There are more domestic and international laws that make such predatory pricing and business practices illegal than you could ever name. If it comes out that the CFTC and COMEX management had knowledge that China was, in fact, involved in this manipulative silver scam, they should be drawn and quartered. And if the Silver Managers think they can pass the buck to the Red Chinese, and keep their illicit gains in COMEX silver trading, they better think again.

Think of the negative strategic implications of having Red China dictate silver prices, first down, then up. Silver is a vital component in thousands of industrial applications. That means if silver is unavailable, entire production lines will shut down and workers will be sent home. The US Government, and its western counterparts, are now officially out of silver. All run silver deficits. All must import large amounts of silver. Red China is now the largest silver refiner in the world, and is increasing its share. At some point, Chinese industrial consumption will rise to the level where there is no silver available for export. To watch this develop is distressing to me. When there is not enough silver to go around, and factories around the world must close because of that, you can be sure Red China`s factories will take preference over US or European factories for China`s silver refining production. And, unfortunately, we have had two wars since I wrote about the defense implications of the US Government running out of silver and being dependent upon imports for more than 50 per cent of US consumption. Having Red China emerge as the largest silver refiner in the world, make matters a lot worse potentially.

What does this China story mean to silver investors? For one thing, it suggests a major name as the manipulator of a major market. This, I suppose, is how it must be. More importantly, it doesn`t change anything. The silver market has been manipulated by leasing and uneconomic short selling on the COMEX. The Silver Managers are still the ringleaders. Having Red China emerge as the customer behind the Silver Managers fits perfectly. Motive, means and opportunity. And it explains (almost) how the CFTC and COMEX could turn a blind eye towards the manipulation right in front of them.

Both the CFTC and the COMEX are concerned with futures and options trading. Even though I have presented almost irrefutable evidence of violations of futures trading law (specifically violations of speculative position limits and manipulative COMEX warehouse movements), they have managed to sidestep the issue. But they are definitely not used to dealing with foreign nations involved in dumping. Usually, the Federal Trade Commission or the Commerce Dept. handle dumping charges. But, once it is brought to their intention that a foreign nation, particularly a non-democratic and communist dictatorship, may be involved in both futures law violations and physical commodity dumping, the CFTC and COMEX must open their eyes. Red China is sending unambiguous statements that they are dumping silver and are establishing themselves as the world silver refining powerhouse. If it turns out that China is also a kingpin in COMEX paper trading, that would complete the scam. This should be as simple for the CFTC to prosecute as a paint-by-numbers exercise for a 5 year-old.

I will not ask the CFTC and the COMEX if Red China is a big player on the COMEX, as I know what they will say - the law prevents us from disclosing the identity of traders. But the law also demands that they take action when manipulation and dumping are evident. Is their something about full disclosure that is so sacred that it preempts manipulation? Or are the CFTC and COMEX just selectively interpreting the law?

Will Izzy`s premonition that bearish stories on silver prove to be the timing indicator for the major move? Time will tell, but the reasoning certainly sounds logical to me. After all, why would anyone make up bearish stories at this point? The only answer seems to be to send intentional false signals. Maybe Red China has exhausted its government holdings of silver. It seems they have sold well over 150 million ounces over the past 3 years. They will run out someday. Maybe these intentionally planted stories mean they are out of silver to dump, and they are trying to convince others to sell silver, based upon their phony bearish stories. This too is against US commodity law.

The question silver investors must ask themselves is what will happen when the Chinese stop dumping 50 million ounces a year from inventories? We know that must happen, as these, and all, inventories are finite. Where will the silver come from to make up the loss of 50 million ounces of supply? More importantly, what price will be necessary to draw 50 million ounces out of the woodwork, when, not if, China stops dumping silver from inventory? Additionally, my common sense tells me that when China runs out of inventory to dump, it will no longer be the big paper seller of COMEX silver, if they have been the big short. That`s a giant double whammy to the upside.

Recently, I have read many stories on silver that mention manipulation and the short position on the COMEX. I think this is terrific and I congratulate the authors. I have raised these issues for more years than I care to remember, and it is gratifying to now see others write about them and confirm my analyses. It feels good not to be so alone, as I was for so many years. I think what may have been the catalyst for the recent trend of articles confirming my thesis has been my question, how can a market even be considered free, if it is in a long term deficit without rising prices? I am sure that the only answer to that question is that market must be manipulated. That is why no one, especially the CFTC and the COMEX, have been able to answer otherwise. That`s why I asked the question in the first place.

I think it is important for silver investors to always put this silver manipulation issue into proper perspective. While you might feel the outrage that I feel about the continuing manipulation, and now the possible involvement of Red China, you must also remember that this manipulation is your best friend. Without this manipulation, you would never have the opportunity to buy silver at such give-away prices. Perhaps it is Red China that has made it possible for you to achieve your financial dreams. But only if you seize the moment and buy real silver. Take it from my Silver Godfather - they are making you an offer you can`t refuse.


-- Posted Tuesday, July 8 2003

http://news.goldseek.com/TedButler/1057693171.php

[silverpwd]

Come on Gold, gib mir den Bruch der 200`er und anschliessend der 340 !

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

Einen Tritt in den Hintern kannst Du gerne haben, wenn Dir damit gedient wäre, aber Gold runter unter 340.- Dollar, das wirst Du nicht mehr erleben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 9, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled lower at $343.30 an ounce, down 70 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. Fund selling in the last half hour of trade knocked gold lower for a loss on profit taking and some speculation of European bank interest rate decisions tomorrow. "Clearly the focus is on the rate decisions tomorrow from both the ECB and the Bank of England," said a gold trader. "So I think you saw a bit of an overshoot yesterday in currencies, there were big stop-losses, and today it`s just neutral," he said. "If they do cut rates you are obviously going to see a move lower in the euro currency, which is going to be a move higher in the dollar, which obviously is going to put pressure on gold," said analyst David Meger at Alaron Trading. "Now, that is not the expectation," he added. Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. analyst Mike Jalonen recently raised his outlook for the gold price based on his assumption that the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken. Mr. Jalonen raised his average gold price forecast for 2003 by 3.1 per cent to $350 an ounce from $340. For 2004, he is now looking for an average price of $375 an ounce.

Gold prices could climb as high as $425 an ounce over the next couple of years, says National Bank Financial strategist and chief economist Clément Gignac, who has turned bullish on gold stocks after five years of under weighting the sector. "Though bullion is currently trading at about $350, we feel it is not too late to join the game," Mr. Gignac advised clients in a note yesterday. He points to several factors that could push the price of bullion higher, including the large trade and budget deficits in the United States, the risk of deflation and decreasing gold supplies. Mr. Gignac notes that the U.S. current-account deficit now stands at about 5 per cent of that country`s gross domestic product. He is also disturbed by the fact that more than a quarter of the U.S. trade deficit is with China -- a country with the value of its currency pegged to the U.S. dollar. "Today`s low real rates for long U.S. Treasuries look unsustainable given the rapid deterioration of Uncle Sam`s balance sheet," he says. The strategist believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board is willing to act to avoid deflation in the U.S. economy, and that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan intends to do whatever it takes to avoid the type of deflation that hit Japan in the 1990s. Even if deflation does take hold in the United States, Mr. Gignac says, gold might thrive as a safe haven from a potential banking crisis.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $344.15 an ounce, down from $345.45 an ounce at the morning fixing. "After closing at 344.20/60 usd/oz, overnight trade has been quiet with the yellow metal confined to a tight range," said analyst James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com. "Despite the recent gains in the greenback, currency traders are still far from convinced of the health of the US economy and weak data is likely to see a quick reversal of the Dollar`s fortunes," he said. "Gold should find continued support between 338-340.30 usd (200-day moving average) and with physical buying from India picking up; any further falls are likely to be short lived," he added. "The market feels that gold`s got to do something and in the absence of any individual input, it will attach itself to whatever else is moving and that`s currency," said Peter Hillyard, head of European metal sales at ANZ Investment Bank. "Although the market is talking of waiting for the ECB meeting tomorrow, there is very little expectation that the bank will change interest rates. ECB President Wim Duisenberg gave very strong hints to that effect at the end of last week," analyst Rhona O`Connell of the World Gold Council said in a Wednesday report.

"The (currency) market is still structurally short of dollars so we`re seeing a position clearout unfold and that`s helping the dollar go higher," said Shahab Jalinoos, currency strategist at UBS. "There`s no data to trade off so it`s more equity market rallies and rising bond yields that are driving this clearout in speculative positions in the currency market," he said.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold fell $1.60 in Hong Kong to $344.75. Gold remained relatively flat in early Asian trade as did equities markets. Traders said the market was in a wait-and-see mood ahead of Thursday`s European Central Bank meeting, although few players expected a change in interest rates from historic lows of two percent. "If the market believes that equities will provide better returns than gold, there is a distinct risk that gold will become overlooked by investors again," NM Rothschild warned in a report out of Sydney. "The market was pretty quiet today," said Ellison Chu, senior manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. But he suggested there were physical buyers lurking. "I don’t think the amounts were significant, but we saw some (physical buying) this morning," he said. Market participants agree that the gold price continues to be driven by a strong negative correlation to the U.S. dollar. "That should continue for the next week or so," said Chu, referring to the pronounced inverse correlation to the greenback. He sees the spot price of gold fluctuating between $340 and $350 in the next few days.

Concerns remained in the market that the greenback`s fall below 118 yen could prompt Japanese intervention. "The downside for dollar/yen looks hard as rock," said Koichi Abe, manager at Aozora Bank`s forex trading section. Traders suspect the Bank of Japan intervened after the dollar fell to a two-week low of 117.55 yen on Tuesday on stronger-than-expected machinery orders. "In the short term, the market is not leaning toward any currency. But in the longer term, I think the yen and dollar will strengthen due to returning confidence in the U.S. economy," said Kenji Kobayashi, manager of the foreign exchange and treasury division at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "The Nasdaq was strong yesterday and there`s a global trend of rising share prices. That`s working in favor of the dollar," said Kosuke Hanao, head of foreign exchange at the Royal Bank of Scotland. Some traders also worry that if Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, due to give testimony before the House Financial Services Committee next Tuesday, raises fears of deflation, it could hamper the current bullish sentiment for the dollar. "If he raises such fears, stocks could go down and Treasuries bought. It would also bode ill for the dollar," said Aozora`s Abe.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The main Palestinian militant group Hamas said on Wednesday a cease-fire declared under intense international pressure to further a "road map" to peace would unravel if Israel did not free thousands of prisoners. The U.S.-engineered peace plan is coming under threat from discontent within the mainstream Palestinian movement Fatah over Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas`s perceived failure to win Israeli gestures reciprocating for the truce. The truce declared by major Palestinian factions on June 29 has been rattled by violence; including Israel`s killing of a Palestinian man in West Bank raid on Wednesday and a Palestinian suicide bombing that killed an Israeli on Monday.

Tens of thousands of people surrounded Hong Kong`s legislature on Wednesday to denounce the government and its planned anti-subversion bill, cranking up pressure on the territory`s embattled chief executive. Organizers said about 50,000 people took part in the candlelit vigil, which ended peacefully after a few hours. Dragging effigies of the unpopular Beijing-backed leader and some of his ministers, some shouted: "Step down Tung Chee-hwa!" The demonstration at the heart of Hong Kong`s business district came a week after half a million protesters took to the streets to condemn the bill in the city`s biggest demonstration since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

Hundreds of Iranian hardline Islamic vigilantes, police and pro-democracy youths fought running street battles near Tehran University on Wednesday, the anniversary of violent 1999 student unrest. A witness said police fired tear gas at groups of youths near the campus and also fought fistfights with plainclothes Islamic militiamen to prevent them from engaging in further battles with the pro-democracy youths. "The atmosphere is very tense, the smell of tear gas is thick in the air. Police have clashed with youths, the youths have fought with Basijis and I saw police fighting Basijis trying to get closer to the university," the witness said. The Basij militiamen, identifiable only by their trademark beards, clubs and untucked shirts, are fiercely loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran`s most powerful figure.

U.S. forces said on Wednesday they were holding two more Iraqi officials on Washington`s most wanted list, with the capture of Saddam Hussein`s interior minister and the surrender of a Baath Party leader. Mahmoud Diyab al-Ahmed, former interior minister, was captured by coalition forces on Tuesday, a Central Command statement said. It did not say where he was seized. Ahmed was number 29 and "seven of spades" on the "deck of cards" of 55 most wanted Iraqis distributed to American troops. Also on Tuesday, Mizban Khidr Hadi gave himself up to U.S. forces in Baghdad, the statement said. Hadi, a senior member of the Baath Party and the Revolutionary Command Council, was number 23 on the list and the "nine of hearts" in the deck. The detentions bring the number of people on the list known to have surrendered or been captured to 34. The United States offered a reward of $25 million this month for information leading to the arrest of Saddam or confirmation of his death, and $15 million for similar information on each of his two sons.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Federal Reserve said consumer debt outstanding increased by a larger-than-expected $7.3 billion in May to a total of $1.760 trillion. April`s data were revised downward somewhat, to a gain of only $7.9 billion from the previously reported $10.7 billion advance. Wall Street analysts had expected a smaller gain of about $5.0 billion in May. In the Fed report, revolving credit, which tracks credit and charge card usage, posted a $3.1 billion increase, the biggest gain since February, while nonrevolving credit gained by $4.2 billion, down from a $6.6 billion April increase. Nonrevolving credit includes closed-end loans for cars, boats, education expenses and other items. Auto loans make up a large portion of total nonrevolving credit.

Demand in the United States for loans to buy homes and refinance mortgages fell in the July 4 holiday week as interest rates crept higher, an industry group reported on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its measure of demand for refinancings, the refinancing index, fell 21.3 percent to 6,768.3, while its gauge of demand for loans to buy a home, the purchase index, fell 5.5 percent to 414.1. The trade group`s measure of overall lending activity, the market index, fell 17.7 percent to 1,346.3 and 30-year loan contract rates rose to 5.37 percent in the July 4 week from 5.23 percent in the previous reporting week.

The ABC News/Money Magazine weekly Consumer Comfort index inched up to -18 in the week ended July 6 from -20 in the prior week. The index has shown modest improvement since leveling off after a tumultuous wartime cycle and has been stuck between -17 and -21 since May 25. In the ABC/Money weekly survey, the percentage of respondents who rated the current state of the economy positively was up 3 percentage points to 30 percent. The poll`s buying climate gauge, which measures respondents` willingness to spend, held firm at 37 percent for a second week. Fifty-six percent of respondents rated their personal finances as excellent or good, also unchanged from the prior week.


Comment:

Gold settled lower in New York trade in a thinly traded but somewhat volatile session as gold tracked the Euro and shorts covered currency positions ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank meeting on interest rates. It is widely expected that the ECB will leave rates unchanged. The Bank of England will also announce its rate decision tomorrow. Fund and bank selling emerged in the final half hour of trade in New York in a fit of profit taking knocking gold into negative territory for a loss of 70 cents an ounce on the day after having traded above $345 an ounce. Traders also appear to be awaiting Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan’s thoughts on the economy and monetary policy when he testifies before Congress in the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins session next Tuesday. It is expected that much of the testimony will focus on other areas of interest such as the natural gas shortage crisis and the overall health of the economy, however, of particular interest to traders, speculators, and investors will be the direction of monetary policy, the possibility of future interest rate cuts, and the proposed “nonconventional” means to manage the nations currency.

As a side note it is interesting that even as the Fed has been “cranking up the presses”, some currency strategists, bankers and traders are increasingly concerned that there are “not enough dollars” to stimulate economic growth. This perceived “limited availability” of dollars has led to a relative strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies. This perception appears to have countered the Federal Reserve’s plan to weaken the dollar sufficiently to stimulate economic growth and deflect market concerns of deflation. Also of concern to currency market players is that the “Currency War” has effectively been lost by the Americans. Japanese monetary authorities appear to have been fairly effective in their “stealth” currency market intervention campaign for the time being by selling Yen and buying U.S. dollars after several months of limited success. The real question now is what will the Federal Reserve do next. Perhaps the decision will be to “fire up the printing presses” as Federal Reserve Ben S. Bernanke has proposed in a concerted effort to weaken the dollar and counter deflation concerns with higher inflation.

Meanwhile, silver has been quite strong even as gold has been under pressure by Fund and speculator selling of late. This rise of this neglected sub-sector of precious metals appears to have been largely gone unnoticed by the market. It is rumored by some that deep pockets may have been quietly accumulating on the sly once again. “Heavy Hitters” have taken large positions this way in the past and would be the likely suspects (remember the Warren Buffett and Hunt brothers in years past). However, market players suggest the buying is simply related to the “economic recovery” spin and the commodities rally, and speculators may be taking up positions ahead of perceived rising industrial demand putting additional pressure on the limited silver stockpiles. To a lesser degree the same may be true of the platinum group metals. Working in favor of gold is that after a few years of limited exploration and a rampage of high-grading during a period of low gold prices, producers are largely lefty with gutted mines and higher cost operations. The supply of new gold will continue to decline until new deposits are discovered and new mines are allowed to proceed with mining operations. This process could take several years before new production will yield increasing gold supply. Traders have been making comments that many physical buyers are simply waiting on the sidelines in hopes of a new lower entry point that they may accumulate gold at a greater bargain. In fact some physical buying interest has already emerged overnight.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

July 9 - Gold $343.30 down 70 cents - Silver $4.80 up 8 cents

Silver Surges

Unbelievable! For years, silver was not allowed to rise along with gold, in order to dampen excitement over the precious metals group. Now, silver is on the move and gold is constantly slapped down to accomplish the same effect.

It appears the serious silver move we have been looking for over a very long time is finally kicking in. Silver has rallied 7 days in a row, even as gold has been hit hard, down 6 days in a row. I can’t recall anything happening like this before in silver, as it relates to gold.

Silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/93

The funds keep buying silver and the trade keeps selling. Morgan Stanley continues to be a featured buyer. When silver breaks out above $4.88 key resistance and heads for $5, "the trade" will be short and the specs long. With silver controlled for so long, the trade is used to getting their way. That will end for the specs will finally have their day and take silver sharply higher. We will have a Commercial Signal Failure, which is when a SIZEABLE trade position is buried.

The silver open interest rose substantially yesterday to the tune of 3570 contracts to 81,775. There is room for at least 20,000 more specs to pile in to take silver through $5.

The gold/silver ratio has been coming down rather dramatically, standing about 70.8, off from a high of 80.

Are some VERY well informed specs about to take on the silver managers who have run this market for their own pleasure for years now? Hard to say, but the silver upside divergence vis-à-vis gold is striking. Gold should not stay down here much longer. The physical market is too strong. When gold roars back, it SHOULD be a big bennie for silver. Then again, go figure. The more gold is beaten down these days, the better silver does.

Ah for the day when we get our free gold and silver markets back.

Yesterday, I made note that it is very difficult to analyze a manipulated market from a traditional technical/fundamental perspective. In his piece this morning, Jim Sinclair gives us a good explanation why that is the case:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Bull Intervention, Stabilization or if you prefer MANIPULATION will always arrive, if it exists, just when major technicals roll over. That is the sole purpose of manipulation which is today focused on simply keeping the computer based technicals such as MACD and Momentum positive to whatever item is in focus."

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, July 9, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.62, PM $6.61, with world gold at $344.20 and $345.30. High: well above legal import level. Indian offtake is therefore liable to be strong. Today the Rupee hit a gold-purchase-facilitating 33 month high. The Shanghai gold premium, a less certain quantity, has also jumped to $2.75, quadruple the level of a week ago. At this level, the physical market is clearly minded to absorb a great deal of metal.

Japan continues unimpressed. Volume (equal to 37,558 Comex lots) and open interest (equal to 129,038 Comex) were almost exactly unchanged from yesterday. $US gold went out unchanged from NY, with the active contract down 8 yen. However, the open interest report, which comes out a day lagged, implies that the public added the equivalent of 2,067 Comex contracts to its’ long position on Monday, so perhaps the two month yen low is stimulating something under the surface. (NY yesterday traded 39,905 lots; open interest rose by 565 contracts.)

In a week uncongenial to gold’s friends, it is encouraging to see a despondent Bear: SG Precious Metals has put out a weekly comment bemoaning the absence of a worthwhile contango in gold

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"…it is yield levels that are making history… not very attractive for producers in the current climate who can expect to sell spot contracts at this level on a market rebound….Above and beyond the demands of shareholders, the spot/contango mix justifies "non-hedging", if not "de-hedging". Problems will arise if the spot price returns to around USD 300/oz. There is no reason to expect a rise in the contango and a decent return on forward sales. The structure of the gold lending market is such that it is hard to see how current liquidity levels could dry up… an increase in gold yields is not imminent."
(Courtesy www.thebulliondesk.com )

The news that the business outlook for the fabricators of gold derivative programs is consequently poor will greatly distress many observers.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG closed slightly higher (the mania roars on), The DOW set back a bit, the dollar was slightly lower and the bonds rose a tad.

Some spun this economic news as bullish, some bearish:

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. wholesale inventories fell in May for a second month, a government report showed. A strengthening of demand with fewer goods on hand may spark a rise in production and help lift the economy later this year, economists said.

The 0.3 percent decrease for the month to $289.3 billion matched April`s decline and reflected fewer supplies of automobiles, machinery and electrical equipment, the Commerce Department said in Washington. May wholesale sales fell 0.5 percent after dropping 2.5 percent. –END-

Maybe of most importance was the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Refi Index, an indication of mortgage activity, was down 21.3% for the July 4th week.

GATA’s Mike Bolser returns:

Hi Bill:

I`m back from a few days off. Here is the updated Repos chart for your review.



It shows that the new pool total resides at $31.5 Billion, still just under he moving average so the repo pool ma continues to round over to the downside.

The DOW`s 30-day moving average persistently holds to what appears to be a straight line up seemingly in defiance of the repo pool totals. The marvelously straight line itself is suggestive of manipulation shenanigans. However, this apparent challenge to the working hypothesis must be seen in the context of the dollar index [MCDI] which is also correlated to the repo pool total.

While the DOW has continued to rise, the dollar has gained ground as well. One interpretation for this is that the dollar selling pressure from members of the Multi-Polar world has temporarily lessened therefore leaving more repo pool funding to "manage" the upward DOW moving average line.

There are logical reasons for Multi-Polar players to desire a short fall-back in the Euro. Chief among them might be the capture of more favorable final payment terms for the Airbus and energy contracts recently entered.

Thoughtful readers have asked is this a new DOW launch to the 11,000 level? The answer lies in the currency side of the repo pool equation. Ask yourself:

Will the Multi-Polar world roll over and stop selling dollars for Euros? Will they accept unilateralism with the US as their economic master? Recent statements from Vladimir Putin cast a deep shadow on this outcome so we can look forward to another run up by the Euro and that should stress the DOW`s support mechanism, the repo pool totals.

Best, Mike

Chuck checks in:

The chief point of this

Whenever you see a phrase like "the key point" or "the chief point," you must assume that this reflects the central thought of the writer. This phrase occurs in the key doctrinal book of Hebrews in the bible, referring to the position of Jesus as the high priest of God. But, if I may apply it to the historic and pivotal markets that we are now a part of, it is also critical that we maintain our focus on the larger picture at all times, and that is that we are at the reversal point of many decades of profligate living and currency debasement. What has been beneficial to the paper and credit system is now about to be irrevocable reversed. And what has been good for stocks, bonds and housing as desirable assets is about to be turned around, and the onerous pressure of debt in a deflationary cycle is about to rent asunder the existing world financial structure. That is why not just gold but especially the gold shares have behaved so well in spite of the obvious manipulation and unthinkable optimism that has persisted towards our financial markets.


As the last real bear market of 1971-74 unfolded, gold rose from around $40 to nearly $200 per ounce. It was not a coincidence that the gold shares, after rallying so much during this time, topped out on the very week that the stock market, as a whole, bottomed out. Gold and stocks, move in opposite directions, since they represent two distinctly different views of money and investment. This correlation has taken place once more in early 2000 as the great bull market concluded and the great bull market in gold began.

The tug of war that will conclude in the supremacy of one or the other continues even as I write. The chief point is this: stock, bonds and housing are about to move into a persistent long-term decline as our financial excesses of the past come home to roost. At the same time, we can expect the precious metals to move in the entirely different direction because this these two markets are at enmity with each other, if I may use a biblical concept. Do not let the zig-zags, fakes selling squalls such as last July move your view that there is an unfolding of historic events and moves in the financial and social markets. It has paid not to jump in at the most exciting times and to sell when things have looked bleak. This is the nature of markets. They will do what they have to do to part you with your savings and investments. This time it will be no different, Keep yourself informed and try to remain unemotional if you are to profit from the amazing things that are about to transpire shortly. Yours, Chuck Cohen [e-mail]

Jessie checks in too:

We heard that Chambers had predicted that IT spending would turn up in one to two months on CNBC about every five minutes this morning. I wonder when they will air this correction.

When I heard it I kept wondering, how the hell does John know that? I would have heard about it if it was that big and that imminent since I was in the same racket for the last 26 years, and know John and most of the companies in the biz. His customers are still dying. It doesn`t sound right. –END-

Cisco straightened the matter out later:

Cisco Says CEO Misunderstood by Dutch Daily

Wed July 9, 2003 01:10 PM ET

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO.O officials on Wednesday said comments attributed to Chief Executive John Chambers about an imminent recovery in the technology sector were misinterpreted by a Dutch newspaper.

Dutch daily Het Financieele Dagblad quoted Chambers as saying at a meeting with European reporters in San Jose on Monday that corporate spending on information technology would recover in the next two to four months.

But Cisco spokeswoman Robyn Jenkins-Blum said Chambers actually said companies would start spending on information technology two to four months after their own businesses turn around.

"There is nothing new in what John has been saying the last several quarters," Jenkins-Blum told Reuters. –END-

Spin is COMPLETELY out of control in America. Whether it’s the President on his bogus Niger uranium call, or Wall Street, or CNBC.

A Café member’s comment on Microsoft’s decision to do away with awarding stock options grants to employees and offering share awards instead:

Bill: Microsoft is going to do the right thing. This will highlight just how grossly overvalued most of the tech stocks are. The rest of the industry is going to be very upset. If people start to reflect this accounting development into their eps estimates, the numbers come down huge for most of the Nasdaq. This will clearly help Microsoft from a competitive perspective since it will be more difficult for their competitors to raise capital accurately expensing compensation costs will lower earnings). Acquisitions Microsoft wishes to make will be much cheaper! So while it is the right thing to do, from a competitive standpoint it could be a death blow to many competitors and potential competitors thereby strengthening Microsoft`s long term positioning.
The Nasdaq will be shown once again be shown to be the emperor without clothes. –END-

GATA’s attorney does it again – from www.MINEWEB.com:

NEW YORK -- Merrill Davidoff has scooped 25 GoldGrams in the second leg of the 2003 Durban Deep – GoldMoney competition. This is his second win in succession after placing among the top finishers in last year’s competition.

The final phase of the competition wraps up at the end of the year when a final prize of 100 GoldGrams will be awarded for the best DROOY and London Gold Fix predictions.
Davidoff’s consistency is remarkable. Not only did he again place first to take his winnings to date to 40 GoldGrams from GoldMoney worth around $440, but he nearly tied his previous winning score – 94.2% and 94.7% respectively…….

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…

–END-


Yesterday, I queried what’s with bonds, down, down, down. Today, we may have part of the answer:

Treasury`s Fisher to Resign as Domestic Finance Chief

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Peter Fisher, who made his mark as the U.S. Treasury`s point man for financial markets by eliminating the 30-year bond, will leave the post before year-end and be replaced by Kenneth Leet, a managing director at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., people familiar with the situation said the Bush administration will announce today.

Fisher has been Treasury`s undersecretary for domestic finance since August 2001. During his 23 months in the Bush administration, he was involved in some of the most important events affecting markets, including the elimination of the 30-year bond, and efforts to restart bond and stock trading following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

``Peter Fisher is someone who understands markets, banking and financial services,`` said Henry Paulson, chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in an interview earlier this year.

Fisher`s departure, which people familiar with his plans had predicted earlier this year, may raise speculation that the 30- year bond will be revived……

Fisher was the Treasury`s liaison with banks and Wall Street in the aftermath of Sept. 11, and used his experience to help ensure bond markets reopened the same week and stocks within five trading days of the terrorist attacks…….

In September 1998, he and McDonough presided over meetings between Long Term Capital Management and its creditor banks to arrange a $3.6 billion rescue plan. At McDonough`s request, Fisher had examined the hedge fund`s books and determined it was on the brink of a collapse that could have destabilized financial markets already reverberating from the Asian crisis and Russian debt default….

-END-

Is The Gold Cartel losing one of their bagmen? Fisher was Rubin`s `troubleshooter,` and was also the quarterback of the PPT activity under Bush.

It was gold’s failure to rise after the LTCM crisis which led me to discover the gold price was rigged. For over a year, I had heard from various sources that LTCM was short 300 tonnes of gold. When they went bust, we thought gold would fly. When it didn’t and certain bullion dealers like JPM and Goldman Sachs capped all rallies above $300 day after day, it alerted me something was very wrong. Word then spread LTCM was bailed out of their gold short position, an occurrence orchestrated by PETER FISHER.

Sources VERY close to LTCM told GATA years later, LTCM was indeed let out of their gold trade and given immunity from any scrutiny AS LONG AS they denied it.

GATA made such a stink over the affair in 1999 that LTCM’s senior counsel felt it necessary to write GATA a letter seeking a retraction. My response was as follows:

James G. Richards, Esq.
General Counsel
Long-Term Capital Management, L.P.
One East Weaver Street
Greenwich, Connecticut 06831-5146

July 4, 1999

Dear Mr. Richards:

I have your letter of June 15th seeking a retraction from GATA for alleging that Long-Term Capital, L.P., "manipulated the price of gold."

GATA can`t retract such an allegation for we don`t think we`ve ever made it. Your letter didn`t specify where and when GATA made such an allegation, but if you will be specific, we`ll do our best to respond and, if appropriate, correct our statement. We have already posted your letter and LTCM principal Eric R. Rosenfeld`s affidavit on our website to publicize your viewpoint.

In my Internet commentaries, I have cited speculation by many others that LTCM was short a substantial amount of gold prior to the firm`s being bailed out last year by a group of investment banks. Since there have been numerous publicized rumors and reports since last August about LTCM`s extremely leveraged positions and the serious threat they posed to the financial system, I would be interested to know if you have demanded similar "retractions" from others as well as from GATA of any of these reports.

Mr. Rosenfeld`s affidavit is apparently intended to contradict rumors about LTCM`s short exposure in gold, but it doesn`t address all the ways by which LTCM or its investors may have had liabilities related to gold. So I would also welcome the opportunity to interview Mr. Rosenfeld and other principals, employees, agents and counterparties of LTCM to clarify this matter and thereby obtain the information necessary to my correction of any errors.

Sincerely,

Bill Murphy
Chairman
Gold Anti Trust Action Committee

The gold news is mostly ALL bullish, except for the activity of the crooks. Silver is on the move, the physical gold market is VERY firm, interest rates remain low, the gold shares continue perform above and beyond and OIL remains strong.

Oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/83

It seems oil is more likely to head for $40 than retreat to $20 per barrel. So much for the big energy break after the war. This won’t have oil bears breathing any easier:

Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline Hit by Sabotage

Tue July 8, 2003 04:09 AM ET
By Michael Georgy

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq`s northern export pipeline to Turkey was damaged by a new sabotage blast over the weekend and repairs will take two weeks, a senior Iraqi oil ministry official said on Tuesday.

The official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters Iraq was also facing what he called widespread "economic sabotage" along a pipeline from Iraq`s southern oilfields.

"The Iraq-Turkey pipeline was sabotaged 36 hours ago and will take two weeks to repair," he said.

[iu]"It will take two weeks to repair if there are no new explosions and we still have several damaged areas on the pipeline that are still to be repaired from earlier explosions."[/i]

The weekend attack on the Kirkuk line to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan delivers a further blow to Iraqi hopes of raising crude exports.

The war-torn country has been hit by a series of pipeline blasts since the end of the war that ousted president Saddam Hussein and has yet to reopen the Kirkuk export pipeline.

The deliberate attacks have suppressed oil supplies with the only exports so far from crude held in storage at export terminals since before the war began.

In July Baghdad is planning to sell only eight million barrels, all from its southern fields, at a rate of just 260,000 bpd, compared to pre-war sales of two million barrels daily. –END-

Excerpt from a www.MineWeb Placer Dome story:

VANCOUVER – Placer Dome [TSX: PDG] says it remains firmly committed to reducing its hedge book despite the acquisition of an Australian junior which comes into the gold major’s fold with a sizeable chunk of gold production sold forward for the next decade.

The Vancouver-based senior on Tuesday said it had bagged Australian gold junior East African Gold Mines (EAGM), a purchase that would smooth a long-desired entry into gold mining in Tanzania but at the same time add another 800,000-plus of committed gold ounces to its hedge book.

"Acquiring these hedges in no way alters our commitment to reducing our existing hedge book -- excluding EAGM hedges – to below 10 million ounces by year end," Placer Dome president and CEO Jay Taylor said. Speaking on a conference call to discuss the EAGM purchase, Taylor said it remained Placer’s goal to cut total committed ounces to historical levels of about 15% of reserves.

In the first quarter of this year, Placer wiped 1.1 million ounces from its hedge book, taking it down to 11.5 million ounces or 22% of reserves. As bullion has increased off lows of $250 an ounce hit 2 -1/2 years ago, so has criticism of hedged gold producers by investors keen to share in the upside of the gold price…….

-END-

At what prices will Placer be covering their sizeable hedge positions? Placer Doom shareholders must be disgusted with share price performance the past two years. Actually, I know that is so as I ran into a couple of major ones in Vancouver. Had their management stayed GATA friendly, instead of new CEO Taylor listening to the conniving bullion dealers, who influenced them to increase their hedges around $300, their share price would be far higher than it is now. Wouldn’t touch that stock with a ten-foot pole.

A Café member queries:

I have just recently reviewed some of the gold mutual funds I hold and was surprised to see that Barrick is now being bought by most.

In the passed I had culled most of the funds that had hedged gold companies in their holdings.

Why have the precious metals funds started to hold a dog like Barrick when in the pasted they would not? Even Royal Precious Metals Fund whose manager got in trouble with with the top brass at Royal Bank Of Canada for criticizing Barrick for its hedge now has Barrick as one of its top ten holdings

I would appreciate any insight you might have on this and possibly you could alert others in the gold community if there is something here we should be aware of.
Ron

Ron is correct. I have become aware of the same and just scratch my head. The argument for Barrick is they are undervalued. May be, but money managers are taking a big risk because of their monstrous/confusing hedgebook AND we know they are having mine production problems at two of their major properties. Each to his own. Wouldn’t touch Barrick with a ten-foot pole either. Give me Golden Star ($3) any day, which received this bit of nice press today:


Peter Bradford, President and CEO of Golden Star Resources Ltd., Discusses Company`s Success In Gold Production, and Future Plans in wallst.net Interview
7/9/2003 10:52:19 AM

NEW YORK, Jul 09, 2003 (PRIMEZONE via COMTEX) -- When Bradford took his post in 1999, Golden Star Resources Ltd. (GSS) had no gold production at all. Since then, the company`s gold production surged to an estimated 140,000 ounces in 2003, he told www.wallst.net.

First quarter earnings for 2003 yielded an estimated 40,000 ounces of gold, which is "right on track," with Bradford`s estimation of another 100,000 ounces by fiscal year`s end. "All of our projections come from current assets through organic growth," he said, adding that "as gold production increases, investors can expect earnings to increase at the same time," assuming that "everything else stays constant."

Currently, Golden Star Resources Ltd., is "On the lookout for ways to grow the company," he said, referring to the acquisition of a second mining property in Ghana, 35 km away from their current project in the Bogoso/Prestea open pit mine. Bradford projected the completion of feasibility studies for the company`s second mine in Ghana in mid-2003, and the completion of the mine is slated for the first-quarter of 2004. The Government of Ghana is a 10 per cent partner of Golden Star who "owns the other 90 percent outright," Bradford said.

Bradford estimated a rapid annual increase in gold production within the next several years, predicting a 92 percent increase in production at the end of 2004, and gold production reaching 250,000 ounces by 2005. "That gives us one of the better growth profiles in the gold mining industry," he said, adding that the goal of the company is to secure itself as a "Mid-tier gold producer group within the next two or three years."

He concluded the interview by stating the company had "Good cash flow," minimal debt (less than $3 million), and nearly $40 in treasury cash reserves. "What`s important for investors is that none of our gold production is committed," he said. "If gold prices increase, then Golden Star sees the benefit."

The entire interview can be heard at www.wallst.net -END-

Newmont ($32.79, up 38 cents) continues to gain over Barrick ($17.22, down 18 cents ) and has formed a sizeable wedge formation. A breakout of the wedge to the upside could produce a powerful move and lead the gold shares MUCH higher.

Newmont
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

The gold shares were sold off late once more with the HUI dropping .28 to 151.38 and the XAU holding steady at 77.26, down only .02.

I’m looking for something big to happen our way VERY soon. The shares act like they want to go much higher. Silver is on a tear. The P/E numbers for the US stock market are way too high, bonds look shaky, the dollar ought to be ready to head lower again, the Iraq war is not going well, many believe President Bush lied to get America into the war, and the physical gold market is roaring.

Won’t be long Café members, Gold will be flying in the near future!

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Heute Gold und Silber Nachthandel inlusive! (Direct Access Handel)

Braut sich da etwa irgendwas grösseres zusammen?

[hpoth]

@ ThaiGuru

In welcher Richtung denkst Du, braut sich was zusammen.?
Schöner Tag gruß hpoth

[keepitshort]

die 30-year-T-Bond-Yield knabbert schon an der 90-Tage-Linie

von der Zinsseite sieht es so aus als ob dass all-time-low
bei den langfristigen Zinsen gefunden wurde

die T-Bond-Märkte werden erstmal etwas weiter sinken
und dann kommen die Aktienmärkte dran
das läuft wieder so ab wie 1987
blos mit "open end" or "unknown end"

der Greenspan will das ja gezielt steuern
das step by step down am Dow-Jones.


sehr günstig für den Goldpreis
der Golpreis wird natürlich steigen

Rohöl auch nicht mehr unter 27 US-$/Barrel

die Rohölförderländer dürften auch merken dass sie
bei an einem an Wert verlierenden US-Dollar
keine Lust mehr haben Preisnachlässe zu geben.

[silverpwd]

Gold price not expected to retain its shine

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weaker euro and positive US stock markets suggest it may not be too long before bullion falls
Resources Correspondent
THE gold price may slide to around $320/oz over the next few months, according to analysts.
Bullion has held on to some of the gains made since the spot gold price hit a high of $378/oz in February, but gold bulls have had to be satisfied with an average price of $349,64/oz over the six months since the start of the year.
It seems that the gold price, which is influenced by the movement of the dollar and the buying and selling of gold (physical factors), is not reacting to the slight gains of the dollar right now.
"The gold price is lagging behind US equity market improvements and a stronger dollar," says Leon Esterhuizen, a gold analyst at Investec. "It is a matter of who blinks first the equity market or the gold bulls."
There is a feeling that those who are hanging on to their gold positions believe that the uptick in US equity markets will only be short lived.
But Esterhuizen does not think this will be the case. "We could see the gold price back down to $320/oz," he says.
Since January the lowest spot gold price recorded was on April 7, when the precious metal fell to 321/oz.
Spot gold was trading about 345,75/oz a price which is about 2,19% down since the start of the year.
On the technical side the support level appears to be around 344/oz to $350/oz but the metal is meeting resistance at $350/oz.
The World Gold Council in its daily report said yesterday the gold spot market found good support at $345/oz on Monday.
"Since then gold has been more or less static as investors concentrate on other areas and await also the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday," read the market commentary.
The question now is will the central bank sell off gold?
Sales have tapered off over the last few months as most of the countries involved in the Washington agreement are starting to sell again acting as a drag on the gold price.
The Washington agreement caps the amount of gold that the world`s central banks sell in a year.
"Central bank sales could go up from September," says Esterhuizen. He says that usually central bank sales combined amount to about 30 to 33 tons a month.
The Washington agreement limits 12-month central bank sales to 400 tons from those banks that have signed the deal.
Dehedging activities, where gold companies have been buying up gold to close out hedge positions (gold that they had sold forward at a set price), is also expected to slow.
"If dehedging declines and central banks sell; gold will not be a certain one-way bet," says Esterhuizen.
At the moment the stronger dollar is, to a degree, a consequence of worries about euro zone economies and the effect this is having on the value of the euro. In the last few days the single currency has been losing ground against the dollar.
The weaker euro combined with a some positive movements on US stock markets indicate that it may not be too long before gold tumbles through its current levels of resistance.
These currency factors coupled with expectations of more central bank gold selling and a slow down in dehedging could mean that the hedge funds currently supporting gold may change their positions, resulting in a run down in the gold price.


Kontroindikator ?
Nur noch nen paar lausige Dollars und die 340 ist durch ..

[silverpwd]

In den 70igern waren 99% der Bevölkerung der Begriff Aktien fremd.
Da spekulierte man mit Devisen und Gold. Zu Weihnachten mal nen Krüger-Rand geschenkt bekommen, die Goldkette war wie der Pelz noch nen Symbol für Wohlstand. Heute kauft man Gold-Zertis und OS-Calls, die real gar nichts bezüglich des Gold-Preises auslösen.
Von alten Kriegszeiten und Unruhezeiten, wo der Wert des Geldes verfiel oder man notfalls ins Ausland flüchten musste und die Leute noch tatsächlich physikalisches Gold bei der Bank kauften, mal ganz zu schweigen.
Ich glaube nicht, dass Gold jemals wieder zu den glanzvollen Tagen zurückkehrt.

[hpoth]

Na,gut das kann man auch so sehen, aber wer sagt uns denn das nach dieser Wirtschaftskrise und Staatsverschuldung es in eine ganz andere Richtung laufen kann.
Die Opposition sagt zwar die Schulden von heute sind die Steuern von morgen.Das ist aber nicht so richtig.Die Schulden von heute sind die Inflation von morgen. Warum? Weil noch höhere Steuern zu weniger Steuereinnahmen führen würden.Der Staat hat gar nicht mehr die Option,die Steuerschraube noch mehr anzuziehen,weil dann die Schwazarbeit noch stärker zunimmt als sie jetzt schon ist ( glaube so an die 350MRD Euro) und die besten Leute sich ins Ausland verabschieden werden.Also müssen weiterhin Schulden gemacht werden, und diese werden mit der Zeit durch Inflation abgewertet.Von einem ausgeglichenen Haushalt kann ohnehin keine Rede mehr sein.Den wird Eichel nie vorlegen können.gruß hpoth

[silverpwd]

Mit der Inflation sehe ich das inzwischen genauso. Die bekommen wir, nur ne Frage der Zeit.
Es gibt womöglich jedoch Rettungswährungen, die nicht inflationieren.
Selbst wenn alle Währungen inflationieren, dann dürfte Gold nen paar Prozent pro Jahr dazugewinnen aus rein fundamentalen Gründen.
Daraus könnte eine neuer Spekulationszyklus geboren werden, was ich aber für extrem unwahrscheinlich halte. Der Zeitgeist ist meines Empfindens ein anderer als bei früheren Gold-Hausse-Phasen.

[silverpwd]

Übrigends, schaut mal was Silber da macht.
Vielleicht zocken die Hedgies und Spekulanten dieser Welt jetzt Silber an. Der Zug bei Gold ist ein bischen träge geworden, die Story ist erzählt, dann reissen wird doch mal Silber über die 4.90 und warten auf die Trittbrettfahrer.
Ich würde es so machen mit viel Geld im Rücken..

[hpoth]

Ja könnte was werden, denke aber selbst die damals sehr reichen Brüder Hunts haben sich verrechnet!!gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Normalerweise immer wenn der Gold, und Silber Handel "nachtaktiv" wurde (Direct Access Handel), sollten bei uns Gold Bugs die Alarm Glocken leuten.

Da ich die Bid`s und Ask`s im DAH leider nicht sehen kann, gehöre leider nicht zu den wenigen privilegierten Leuten, oder Firmen, die dort anscheinend von der Oeffentlichkeit, und dem "normalen" Goldhandel abgeschirmt, auf die Preisgestaltung nach oben, oder nach unten, Einfluss nehmen können.

Habe eigentlich zuerst befürchtet, dass die anti Gold Gesinnungsgenossen vom User "Silverpwd" dem Goldpreis den letzten Kick nach unten geben wollten. Das hat aber anscheinend jemand verhindert, oder das Cabal hat sich`s nochmals anders überlegt. Gold hat sich heute sogar leicht auf 344.10 Dollar pro Unze festigen können.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030710/105431_1.html

Press Release Source: GOLDCORP INC.

GOLDCORP INC.: Notice Of Second Quarter Results

Thursday July 10, 12:59 pm ET

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 10, 2003--GOLDCORP INC. (NYSE:GG - News; TSX:G - News) Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO of Goldcorp Inc. is pleased to announce that Goldcorp will be releasing its Second Quarter Results during the evening of Wednesday, July 23, 2003.
An analyst meeting will be webcast live (audio only) at: http://www.corporateir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml? ticker=GG&sc… (Due to the length of this URL, it may be necessary to copy and paste this hyperlink into your Internet browser`s URL address field.) on Thursday July 24, 2003 at 8:30 a.m. (EST). The press release will be posted on our website located at: http://www.goldcorp.com.

Goldcorp`s Red Lake Mine is the richest gold mine in the world. The Company is in excellent financial condition: has NO DEBT, a Large Treasury and Strong Cash Flow and Earnings. GOLDCORP is completely UNHEDGED and pays a dividend six times a year. Goldcorp`s shares are listed on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges under the trading symbols of GG and G, respectively and its options trade on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Pacific Stock Exchange (PCX) in the United States and on the Montreal Exchange (MX) in Canada.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
GOLDCORP INC.
Chris Bradbrook, 416-865-0326
fax: [phone]
e-mail: [e-mail]
website: www.goldcorp.com
or
GOLDCORP INC.
Corporate Office: 145 King Street West
Suite 2700, Toronto, Ontario M5H 1J8

[silverpwd]

"Habe eigentlich zuerst befürchtet, dass die anti Gold Gesinnungsgenossen vom User "Silverpwd" dem Goldpreis den letzten Kick nach unten geben wollten"

Heute ist nicht alle Tage...

Für den Abschlag bei den US-Indizes finde ich die Dollar und Goldentwicklung eher lausig. Kräftesammeln für den grossen Befreiungsschlag aussen Dreieck ? Ich glaubs nicht. Auf jeden Fall extrem spannende Tage.

[ThaiGuru]

Diese positive Meldung für Coeur d`Alene Mines *CDE* hat ja heute den Preis stark beflügelt. Plus 7.01%, auf 1.68 Dollar pro Aktie.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030710/sfth059_1.html

Press Release Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur d`Alene Mines Added to Russell 2000 Index

Thursday July 10, 11:50 am ET

Recent Company Growth Initiatives Lead to Higher Market Valuation

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho, July 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE - News), the world`s largest primary silver producer, announced today that it has been added to the Russell 2000 Index of publicly traded companies, with Coeur now included in investment funds comprised of companies in that index. Final additions to the new Russell 2000 Index became effective July 1 and were made public July 9 through the Frank Russell Company website (www.russell.com).
"Being included in the important Russell 2000 is a welcome result of Coeur`s increasing market capitalization, driven by our global growth strategy of increasing silver production, a new generation of South American mines, and our stronger capital structure and cash flow," said Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

The Russell 2000 Index is the widely followed benchmark of small-capitalization stock market performance, comprised of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. This listing of 2,000 companies is the standard against which many small-cap investment managers are measured. The indexes are rebalanced once a year based primarily on market capitalization.

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation is the world`s largest primary silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Cautionary Statement

This document contains numerous forward-looking statements relating to the Company`s silver and gold mining business. The United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements. Operating, exploration and financial data, and other statements in this document are based on information the Company believes reasonable, but involve significant uncertainties as to future gold and silver prices, costs, ore grades, estimation of gold and silver reserves, mining and processing conditions, changes that could result from the Company`s future acquisition of new mining properties or businesses, the risks and hazards inherent in the mining business (including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, weather or geologically related conditions), regulatory and permitting matters, and risks inherent in the ownership and operation of, or investment in, mining properties or businesses in foreign countries. Actual results and timetables could vary significantly from the estimates presented. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

CONTACT: Tony Ebersole, Investor Relations of Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation, [phone].

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030710/0524000519_1.html

Dow Jones Business News

S African Miners Ready To Call Gold Strike Action -Union

Thursday July 10, 5:24 am ET

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- South Africa`s National Union of Mineworkers said Thursday that they are ready to strike at the country`s gold mines if their wage demands aren`t met.

Talks between the NUM and the industry-backed Chamber of Mines, which started in May, have deadlocked.

The Chamber of Mines, which is leading the negotiations on behalf of the country`s gold producers, has called the NUM`s demands unrealistic, while the NUM says the Chamber`s reluctance to adhere to their demands is inhumane.

The NUM`s opening wage gambit was for a 20% pay hike, but the Chamber has refused to budge beyond 7.0%.

The Chamber argues that, because wages account for around half the gold producers total costs, a 10% wage hike would equate to a 5% drop in earnings at a time when company profits are being slashed because of the strengthening rand.

But this isn`t cutting any ice with the NUM, who say the gold mining companies, whose output is priced in dollars, enjoyed massive earnings growth during 2001 as the rand slumped to an all-time low against the greenback of ZAR13.85.

"The industry`s procrastination is a clear indication that they want a strike, and if it requires a strike to turn the tide toward change and humane conditions, the mining industry will get it," said Gwede Mantashe, the NUM`s General Secretary and chief negotiator.

Mantashe said talks are scheduled to end today, with neither party penciling in any date for further talks.

"Mineworkers can no longer accept to open their chests to the brutality of dust and the maiming of rocks in pursuit of wealth for others, while their wives bathe their infants in tears and feed them on crumbs. We have told them to give us their final offers now, because in our view the process has reached its end," said Mantashe.

Frans Barker, the head of the Chamber of Mines negotiating team, wasn`t immediately available for comment.

Aside from wages, the NUM is looking to discuss other issues such as annual leave, retirement funds, housing, job grading and health care.

South Africa`s biggest gold miners - Harmony , Gold Fields and AngloGold - have repeatedly warned that as long as the rand remains strong, future earnings will be severely hit.

The rand`s been recovering since the end of 2001, which means dollars are buying fewer rands.

"When you look at the state of the gold producer`s earnings, and see how hard they`ve been hit because of the rand, a potential 10% wage increase means the downside for the gold mining industry is pretty large," said Leon Esterthuizen, a gold mining analyst at Investec.

Gold Fields, South Africa`s second-biggest producer, releases its full-year earnings Aug. 1. Harmony issues full- year numbers Aug. 4, while AngloGold, the county`s biggest producer, releases its half-yearly figures Aug. 8.

Around 0905 GMT on the JSE Securities Exchange, AngloGold was trading down 2.1% at ZAR233.00, Harmony was trading down 2.6% at ZAR94.50 and Gold Fields was down 2.4% at ZAR88.80.

-By Adam Aljewicz, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone]; [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Heute ist nicht aller Tage Abend, wolltest Du wohl sagen?

Da hast Du vollkommen Recht!

Der Goldpreis wird wieder weiter stark ansteigen.

Deine anti Gold Gesinnungsgenossen, konnten zwar den Goldpreis jahrelang nach unten manipulieren, und manipulieren ihn auch heute noch.

Die Frage lautet nun:

Wie lange können sie noch so weitermachen?

Das Hauptproblem ist, dass Naturgesetze auch vom Gold Cabal nicht über den Haufen geworfen werden können.

Das riesige Gold Produktionsdefizit ist eine seit Jahren immer wieder auf`s neue bewiesene Tatsache, die auch ein linkischer Querrulant in diesem Board nicht negieren kann, ohne sich zu blamieren.

"Für den Abschlag bei den US-Indizes finde ich die Dollar und Goldentwicklung eher lausig"

Wenn man Deine gesammelten Bemerkungen, und Deine unregelmäßigen, unqualifizierten, negativ Kommentare zum Gold in diesem Board, in einen Stoff destillieren würde, dann müsste dieser Stoff gewaltig nach Cabal stinken.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 10, 2003 (usagold.com)

NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $344.30 an ounce, up $1.00 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold gained on a slightly weaker U.S. dollar and the European Central Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. On the economic front, the European Central Bank left the 2 percent interest rate in place, at least until its next meeting Sept. 4. Also, weekly jobless claims climbed to 439,000, noted Graham Leighton, a metals analyst with Societe Generale. "This has stalled the U.S. dollar`s recent gains and should in turn help support the gold price," Leighton wrote in a research note. "We see good support for gold at the $341 level (200-day moving average)," he said. Silver continues to exhibit some strength as well. Older indicators such as the gold-silver ratio, which measures silver`s value in relation to gold, have recently been closely monitored by analysts, with early pointers to a price rise now being borne out. "People seem to be -- rightly or wrongly -- a bit more upbeat about the world`s economies and particularly the U.S. and that`s where the reasonable buying is coming in," said Simon Weeks, bullion director with ScotiaMocatta.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $343.40 an ounce, unchanged from $343.40 an ounce at the morning fixing. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged while the Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points. "It`s very quiet and the market is being completely overshadowed by silver. I think it will continue to drift," said Stephen Briggs of Societe Generale. "Gold is going to suffer as long as the perception is that good economic times are around the corner...benefiting in uncertain economic times means that it does suffer in bad ones," he added. "The $344/oz level is an important area of support for gold with a close below this level leaving the price vulnerable to a retracement below $340/oz," Barclays Capital said in a daily report. “With the physical sector showing encouraging signs of life prices dips over the summer are seen as buying opportunities with many pundits looking for higher prices later in the year,” said Standardbank London in a daily report.


ASIA:

Spot gold traded in a very tight range as investors await the European Central Bank interest rate decision. With gold continuing to closely track any moves in the euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate, traders said a shift in European interest rates would likely affect bullion prices by way of the foreign exchange market. The consensus view is that a European rate cut would send gold lower by knocking back the euro`s value against the U.S. dollar. However, it is widely expected that the ECB will leave rates unchanged. The U.S. dollar was supported by suspicious trades after slipping early during Asian trade. The dollar jumped nearly a third of a yen in a matter of seconds on Thursday, raising speculation that option defence or possible official Japanese bids may have kicked in to prevent the yen from rising. "An option trigger at 117.50 took it down to 117.40 but there were bids there and fears the Bank of Japan could be there. This 20-tick jump looks suspicious," a London-based Japanese bank dealer said. "The outlook for the Japanese economy is improving, which should naturally lead to a stronger yen if it weren`t for intervention," said Ryohei Muramatsu, treasury manager at Commerzbank in Tokyo. In addition, Hiroshi Watanabe, head of Finance Ministry`s international bureau, said in European trading hours Japan would not tolerate a yen rise from overseas buying of Japanese stocks.

“The benefit of gold is that it is very different from the traditional asset classes and acts as an ideal counter-balance to them. Whereas the earlier work suggested that an allocation to gold might involve a small give-up in yield (for the benefit of more stable returns), the latest performance figures show that gold would also have increased overall returns”

Mr Tuckwell, Chairman of Gold Bullion, said. He explained that the introduction of gold tends to smooth the performance of super funds, slightly reducing the returns in bumper performance periods, but preventing losses of the scale experienced in recent years. Mr Tuckwell said international and local managed funds are beginning to realize the benefits of including gold as an asset class in their portfolio.

Another good sign for precious metals is that India`s better-than-expected monsoon rains are likely to boost Asia`s third largest economy as a robust harvest could push up rural incomes and drive demand for manufactured. The weather office said on Wednesday the southwest monsoon was likely to be normal with rains in July, crucial for crop sowing, expected to be 102 percent of the long-period average. The monsoon is the lifeline of the Indian economy as the farm sector accounts for 25 percent of GDP and employs about seven of every 10 people in the country of more than a billion people.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"A good monsoon means a higher income for the farming sector which drives a major chunk of demand,"

said S.D. Brahmankar, economist with independent think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). "We are expecting 6.0 percent growth this year. With the new monsoon forecast, we`re more confident," said Ajit Ranade, chief economist with ABN Amro Bank. Bumper crops prompt rural consumers to splurge on big-ticket items such as televisions, refrigerators and automobiles apart from non-durables like soaps, shampoos, items of daily use, and presumably precious metals.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Two U.S. soldiers were killed in separate attacks in Iraq late on Wednesday, a U.S. military spokesman said on Thursday. "One U.S. soldier was killed when a convoy came under small arms attack at 6.30 p.m.," he said. "In another attack, one soldier was killed by an RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) at 10.30 p.m. One was also wounded." One soldier was killed in Tikrit and another south of Baghdad. A U.S. military spokesman said earlier on Thursday guerrillas had fired mortars or rocket-propelled grenades at U.S. occupation forces overnight in four Iraqi towns. It was not clear whether the two deaths resulted from the same attacks.

Iraqi police in Falluja threatened to resign on Thursday unless the U.S. forces that trained them left town, saying the presence of American troops endangered their lives. More than 100 members of the new U.S.-backed force protested in the town about 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad after their police station and a municipality building came under attack overnight by guerrillas firing rocket-propelled grenades.

A crude bomb exploded at a video game stall near a market in the southern Philippines on Thursday, killing three and wounding 25, most of them children, the military said. The home-made device exploded near the public market in Koronadal city on Mindanao island in mid-afternoon, armed forces public information chief Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Lucero said. Lucero said the military was still investigating who may have been behind the blast. The bombing was near the site of a similar blast in May in which the Abu Sayyaf, a Muslim rebel group which Washington has linked to al Qaeda network, claimed responsibility.

A Russian security officer was killed on Thursday trying to defuse a bomb planted at a central Moscow restaurant by a suspected woman Chechen separatist. The latest blast -- on Moscow`s main shopping street -- fueled fears that conflict between Russian forces and Chechen rebels was once again spilling onto the streets of the capital despite a new Kremlin peace plan.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Labor Department reported Thursday that for the work week ending July 5, new claims filed for unemployment insurance rose by a seasonally adjusted 5,000 to 439,000, the highest level since the week ending May 31. The increase surprised economists who were forecasting a decline in jobless claims. For 21 weeks in a row, the level of claims has been above the 400,000 mark, a level associated with a sluggish job market. The number of out-of-work Americans continuing to draw jobless benefits jumped by 87,000 to 3.8 million for the work week ending June 28, the most recent period for which that information is available. That represented the highest level since Feb. 26, 1983, and suggested that not a lot of hiring is taking place.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday as bank officials waited for clearer signs about where the continent`s struggling economy is headed. The bank`s 18-member governing council left the key refinancing rate at 2 percent, where it has been since a half-point cut June 6.

The Bank of England surprised financial markets on Thursday by cutting interest rates a quarter-point to a new 48-year low of 3.50 percent in a bid to stave off slowing growth. Most pundits had felt that incoming governor, Mervyn King, would not want to move interest rates at his first meeting since succeeding retiring Sir Edward George on July 1. The BoE said in a statement accompanying the decision that it was concerned about sluggish conditions in the world economy which had weakened the prospects for British exporters. The pound`s recent rebound on the foreign exchanges would also dampen inflation, it said.

Comment:

Gold settled slightly higher as fund and bank selling kept the metal in check while physical demand gained strength. In a classic “buy the rumor sell the news”, funds and banks sold off gold positions as the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and the Bank of England slashed rates by 25 basis points. However, physical demand surged as the price of gold approached $342 an ounce and gold buyers overwhelmed the gold bears lifting gold higher overall. This in itself was quite impressive given the long liquidation by funds with a sale of 6,000 lots by one fund alone. A large trend-following fund was reportedly a huge seller overnight, exchanging futures for physical gold. Also helping support gold was a sell off in the equities markets giving investors reason to look for safe haven investments.

The U.S. dollar continues to show some strength against other major currencies for the time being, however, any sign of weakness will likely trigger more gold buying as bargain hunters appear and gold shorts cover positions.

Silver continues to show strength as well. It is still unconfirmed but there are some rumors swirling that some powerful interests have been dipping their toes in the water lately, however, several analysts say that rising demand could be from speculators who see an improving economy however unlikely as spurring demand for industrial metals including silver. The precious metals markets look to be stabilizing with good physical demand under pinning support while funds trade the market.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Federal Reserve adds $13 billion to banking system today The Fed today accepted collateral accross the board, though mostly Treasuries, in its two open market interventions today to add $13 billion fresh money to the nation`s banking system.

Eight billion dollars were added through a round of overnight repos (as yesterday`s $1.75 billion overnight add ran off along with Tuesay`s $3.75 two-day operation) and five billion with some staying power were added through 28-day repurchase agreements.

Remember, there is "no meaningful limit" to the Fed`s power to add money... but that is not to say there are no meaningful consequences should they continue to do so. Seek a prudent gold diversification and you may sleep in peace.

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum

[ThaiGuru]

July 10 - Gold $344.30 up $1 - Silver $4.80 unchanged

Gold Correction Should Be About Over

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">When a man spends his own money to buy something for himself, he is very careful about how much he spends and how he spends it. When a man spends his own money to buy something for someone else, he is still very careful about how much he spends, but somewhat less what he spends it on. When a man spends someone else`s money to buy something for himself, he is very careful about what he buys, but doesn`t care at all how much he spends. And when a man spends someone else`s money on someone else, he doesn`t care how much he spends or what he spends it on. And that`s government for you."
--Economist and Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman

It was a choppy session for gold, trading as low as $341.90 and as high as $345.60. This is what I meant about gold needing to do some "work."

John Henry is one of the legendary commodity traders. He has done so well over the years he now owns a professional baseball team. His firm sold 5,000 to 6,000 gold contracts around 5:30 EDT in London this morning. Somebody bought a huge amount of silver at the same time. Perhaps Henry’s outfit was dumping a long gold/short silver spread trade.

My sources tell me Henry puts on gold and silver trades in New York and often exits in London, where he feels he can unload positions in a more discreet manner.

As well as Henry has done, The Gold Cartel has cleaned his clock in gold over the years. Technical trading acumen doesn`t work in rigged markets.

To get the bull in gear gold must take out a modest downtrend line around $350. When it takes out the top of the megaphone formation around $357 it should fly to $370.

Gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Silver ran up to key resistance at $4.87 before retreating late in the day. The cabal couldn’t let both gold and silver go up in the same day.

All in all, the set-up for gold to move much higher could not be much better. The US stock market looks very toppy, silver is finally on the move, oil is $31 per barrel, the dollar rally is probably over, bonds are not responding to the stock dip, the news from Iraq is not good, and the US economic news is lousy which means the Fed has to keep its pedal to the medal.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, July 10, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.00, PM $7.86, with world gold at $343.80 and $342.20. Enormous: reminiscent of premiums seen in the major market bottom in ’99. The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium also continues high at $2.51.

As usual, gold moved up in early Asian trading, being almost $1 above NY when Tokyo closed. On volume equal to 37,929 Comex contracts – almost the same now for three days – the active TOCOM contract rose 6 yen. (Gold in NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 36,000 lots.)

Yesterday’s NY action, particularly the tell-tale abrupt sell-off to the low in the final minutes, makes it clear that predator and trend following funds are now in the field, willing to defend short positions:

"Investment Bank selling forced the longs to sell to the low prints of the day, where it remained until the closing bell."

(UBS)

"A large sell order on the COMEX near the close saw gold fall back below $344.00"

(Standard London). The arrival of these parties at least means that the bear swing is approaching maturity.

Nonetheless, the intrepid Refco Research http://www.refco.com/ps_refco_research.asp deserves respect for courage for trying the long side again:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Although risky on a technical basis, we would buy 2 August gold at market. Risk close under 340 and expect 355."

Refco has compiled a good gold trading record of late.

A noted bullion dealer raises a fascinating issue today concerning Peter Fischer’s replacement, see:

http://www.nypost.com/business/185.htm

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Leet is from Goldman Sachs, and replaces Peter Fisher who was the Treasury’s point man through the LTCM adventure in late 1998. A certain US house was reputedly a huge buyer of gold calls Sept 1998, before the LTCM blow up was announced]."

I have studied this affair closely

http://www.vdare.com/jb/ltcm.htm

and

http://www.vdare.com/jb/
WallStChangingCulture.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.vdare.com/jb/
WallStChangingCulture.htm;

this is the first I have heard of this story.

Away for the next 2 ½ weeks: hope to publish an abbreviated version of these remarks.

JB

/www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Note the bullion dealer’s comment about the buyer of gold calls before the LTCM blow-up. The insinuation is it was Goldman Sachs, which fits in perfectly with what I covered in the last MIDAS. Goldman Sachs was fully aware of the massive LTCM gold short position and expected gold to fly when they had to cover. Once the position was bailed out by Peter Fisher and the Fed/ESF, Goldman Sachs dumped their options, turning seller, capping all gold rallies after LTCM went under.

http://www.vdare.com/jb/ltcm.htm

http://www.vdare.com/jb/WallStChangingCulture.htm

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW dipped 120 to 9036 and bounced off 9,000 with ease. The delirious DOG dropped 32 to 1716. Pretty heavy looking DOW:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DJ/93

More bullish news for gold out of London:

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point to 3.5 percent at the first meeting chaired by new Governor Mervyn King, aiming to revive flagging growth in Europe`s second-biggest economy.

Interest rates were last lower in 1954 under Prime Minister Winston Churchill. Only eight of the 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipated the move. Most had expected the nine- member rate-setting committee to cut in August.

The U.K.`s gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace in a decade in the first quarter, falling short of the bank`s forecast. The pound climbed 2 percent against the currencies of Britain`s major trading partners in the past month, threatening to curb exports and delay a rebound in manufacturing. –END-

More bearish economic news out of the US:

CONSUMER DEBT SOARED IN MAY

July 9, 2003 -- U.S. consumer debt rose in May as households encouraged by the lowest interest rates in 45 years continued to buy on credit, Federal Reserve statistics showed.

Consumers racked up $7.34 billion more in debt by adding auto loans and credit-card balances during the month, a 5 percent gain, following a revised increase of $7.83 billion in April, the Fed said……

The May rise in borrowing brought total consumer credit to $1.76 trillion. The Fed`s monthly report doesn`t track loans secured by real estate, such as mortgages and home equity loans. Such debt increased 2.8 percent to $6.219 trillion in the first quarter compared with the fourth, the Fed said last month in a quarterly report.

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first- time applications for state unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, suggesting U.S. companies were still slashing payrolls to cut costs heading into the last half of the year.

Initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 439,000 in the week that ended Saturday, the Labor Department said in Washington. That compares with an average of 419,000 in the first six months of the year. The number of people on jobless benefit rolls surged in the prior week to the highest in more than two decades.

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Kohl`s Corp. and Federated Department Stores Inc. reported disappointing sales in June because U.S. shoppers slowed spending as unemployment rose and rainy weather hurt demand for summer merchandise.

Sales at Wal-Mart`s U.S. stores open at least a year increased 2.7 percent from a year earlier, at the low end of the range predicted by the world`s largest retailer. Kohl`s cut its earnings forecast after a 2.4 percent drop in sales. Federated, owner of Macy`s and Bloomingdale`s, said sales dropped a more-than- expected 2 percent. –END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

Here is today`s repos chart showing that the pool totals continue to drop. They now stand at $28.25Billion just below its 30-day moving average [red line] and still dragging the 30-day ma inexorably down [Each data point less than the 30-day ma line`s value moves it in a negative direction].



Of note is that today there was a $16.25 Billion expiration and the Fed provided a net $13Billion repo addition. As I have mentioned in the past, one should not be misled by the large $13 Billion Fed repo add since it was offset by the expiration. I still see gold commentators of some repute misreading the Fed`s open market actions by ignoring the repurchase agreement expirations.

Not to belabor the point, the open market force being brought to bear by the Federal Reserve is the total weight of viable, un-expired repurchase agreements­the repo pool [Shown in red on the chart]. Since the Fed is managing the total repo pool [As represented by the 30-ma] downward they therefore want the DOW to come down. The DOW`s 30-day ma still has yet to turn downward but the recent action suggests the slip is very close.

Notice also that the Dow has touched its 30-day moving average green line three times. The first two times it bounced back well above the ma line. Not so for this last touch in early July. The Dow has not moved energetically up the way it did before. It looks toppy.

The Dow at this writing is weak again today.
Mike

This would jolt The Gold Cartel if it ever comes to pass:

S African Miners Ready To Call Gold Strike Action -Union

Thursday July 10, 5:24 am ET

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- South Africa`s National Union of Mineworkers said Thursday that they are ready to strike at the country`s gold mines if their wage demands aren`t met.

Talks between the NUM and the industry-backed Chamber of Mines, which started in May, have deadlocked.

The Chamber of Mines, which is leading the negotiations on behalf of the country`s gold producers, has called the NUM`s demands unrealistic, while the NUM says the Chamber`s reluctance to adhere to their demands is inhumane.

The NUM`s opening wage gambit was for a 20% pay hike, but the Chamber has refused to budge beyond 7.0%.

The Chamber argues that, because wages account for around half the gold producers total costs, a 10% wage hike would equate to a 5% drop in earnings at a time when company profits are being slashed because of the strengthening rand.

But this isn`t cutting any ice with the NUM, who say the gold mining companies, whose output is priced in dollars, enjoyed massive earnings growth during 2001 as the rand slumped to an all-time low against the greenback of ZAR13.85.

"The industry`s procrastination is a clear indication that they want a strike, and if it requires a strike to turn the tide toward change and humane conditions, the mining industry will get it," said Gwede Mantashe, the NUM`s General Secretary and chief negotiator.

Mantashe said talks are scheduled to end today, with neither party penciling in any date for further talks.

"Mineworkers can no longer accept to open their chests to the brutality of dust and the maiming of rocks in pursuit of wealth for others, while their wives bathe their infants in tears and feed them on crumbs. We have told them to give us their final offers now, because in our view the process has reached its end," said Mantashe.

Frans Barker, the head of the Chamber of Mines negotiating team, wasn`t immediately available for comment.

Aside from wages, the NUM is looking to discuss other issues such as annual leave, retirement funds, housing, job grading and health care.

South Africa`s biggest gold miners - Harmony , Gold Fields and AngloGold - have repeatedly warned that as long as the rand remains strong, future earnings will be severely hit.

The rand`s been recovering since the end of 2001, which means dollars are buying fewer rands.

"When you look at the state of the gold producer`s earnings, and see how hard they`ve been hit because of the rand, a potential 10% wage increase means the downside for the gold mining industry is pretty large," said Leon Esterthuizen, a gold mining analyst at Investec.

Gold Fields, South Africa`s second-biggest producer, releases its full-year earnings Aug. 1. Harmony issues full- year numbers Aug. 4, while AngloGold, the county`s biggest producer, releases its half-yearly figures Aug. 8.

Around 0905 GMT on the JSE Securities Exchange, AngloGold was trading down 2.1% at ZAR233.00, Harmony was trading down 2.6% at ZAR94.50 and Gold Fields was down 2.4% at ZAR88.80.

-By Adam Aljewicz, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone];

I met Mantashe in Johannesburg on one of my trips to South Africa. Their concerns are valid, as are those of the mining companies. All of that did, and does not, have to be. If it weren’t for The Gold Cartel, the price of gold would be hundreds of dollar per ounce higher than it is today. The mining companies would have plenty of money to properly take care of their workers. Not only that, they would be employing tens of thousands MORE miners. It is a travesty. President Bush says he cares about Africa. Horse manure. He is the one man in the world that COULD do something immediately to really help. All he has to do is instruct his ESF to stop rigging the gold price.

Silver and gold prices have not done all that much lately to create hedging nightmares (that’s still to come), yet we are hearing more and more about hedging problems. Two more examples have cropped up and are brought to your attention by a fellow Café member:


Of possible slight interest.

I have followed the price of Penoles, the largest Ag producer, since it was favorably mentioned maybe a yr back by UBS. I just noticed today a (frustratingly vague) article on how they`re having problems with hedging losses (what they hedged is unclear--it could be mainly zinc for all we know from the article, the author of which seems to want to justify the article`s vagueness by referring to relative lack of transparency.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030612/minerals_mexico_penoles_1.htm…

*B.C. Regulator Issues Cease-Trade Order on Crystallex

Wednesday July 9, 12:36 pm ET

VANCOUVER (Dow Jones)--The British Columbia Securities Commission issued a cease-trade order Tuesday targeting the shares of mining company Crystallex International Corp. for failure to file amended financial statements for 2002 that included comparative amounts.

In an order on its Web site, the commission said the company filed restated financial statments on May 20 for the year ended Dec. 31, 2002. But the comparative amounts for the 2000 and 2001 financial years aren`t in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, the commission said.

"The company has informed us that they are reviewing their hedge book accounting for the years ended December 31, 2000, 2001 and 2002 and have identified accounting errors," the commission order states.

It ordered all trading in company shares to cease until the company files the required information.

Crystallex, Vancouver, is a gold producer.

I stand corrected. Certainly the bullion dealers would call Newmont’s Yandal fiasco a nightmare!

Some input on the Precious Metals Funds:

Hi Bill:

Yesterday you printed a letter from Ron who asked why Barrick is now among the top ten holdings of quite a few Precious Metal Funds. I decided to check the top ten holdings of the 19 Canadian Precious Metal Funds. Of the 19, one is a bullion fund, one does not report its holdings and one is I-Units which is a tracker fund run by Barclays. This I-Unit fund tries to replicate the Cdn Gold Index so it has Place Dome at 24.96%, Barrick 24.44%, Goldcorp 10.96%, Kinross 10.58%, Glamis 7.12%, Meridian 5.64%, Agnico at 4.8%, Iamgold at 3.5%, Wheaton 2.7% and Bema at 2%.

Then there are 5 funds managed by McKenzie Funds which all have the same portfolio with Barrick at 6% and Placer at 4.5%-hardly above weight. Of the remaining 11 funds six had no Barrick in the top ten.

My conclusions:

Barrick and Placer Dome are both highly liquid heavily hedged gold miners. They make up 50% of the index but none of the actively managed funds had anything close to that percentage holding of these two companies. Both are way under represented (as they should be).

2. The two shares I noticed quite often were Glamis and IAMGOLD (which was particularly above weight).

3. Goldcorp was way underweight which I found surprising as I think of it as a core holding in any gold portfolio just to provide stability.

4. Newmont which is the world`s largest miner only appeared in four funds.

5. There were almost no South African shares in this group. I noticed small holdings of Goldfields and Rangy but no Harmony or Drooy.

6. None of the Managers shared your enthusiasm for Golden Star. Also absent were the popular Wheaton and Bema Gold.

7. Given that these are precious metal funds I was surprised how little the Silver Miners (except for Buenaventura) were present. There were no holdings of PAAS or Silver Standard or Apex Silver. If silver takes off, these managers will have to buy from scratch.

My conclusion: The managers are actively managing these funds. If an investor decides to avoid Barrick and Placer there are funds which meet this criterion. Finally, a fund manager has to worry about the liquidity of the portfolio (unlike a private investor in for the long term). The fund may have to raise cash quickly if there is a jump in the number of redemptions.
Many of the Juniors are completely illiquid and must be balanced by Seniors and there are not many to choose from.

Cheers, Ed

The gold shares sold off late again. Seems to be happening a lot lately??? However, the HUI looks poised to break out to the upside. It has held its uptrend perfectly and should blow out of its wedge formation.

HUI:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/
quickchart.asp?symb=hui&sid=0&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/
quickchart.asp?symb=hui&sid=0&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

I am not the only one catching the gold share/stock market action:

Bill:

Isn`t so amazing that the last half hour can be so consistent? That makes three straight days in the shares with identical finishes and just the opposite with the market. If we weren`t on the other side, I would be admiringly applauding how this is done. Very skillful and amazing! Chuck

Chuck checked in late with some more:

Bill:

You can tell I didn`t have a lot to do today. Just some thoughts as I looked at the charts and how the golds and the market behaved on a Thursday. First, If there is ever going to be a non-important day, it is Friday in the summer. Given the persistent sell-off in the shares, the lethargic action in gold, and the revolting last hour rally in the market each day, we definitely have the possibility of one last dip in gold bringing a quick dip in the shares, especially the listeds, and one more lunge upward in the market and then a final reversal. Plus, we are approaching the one year anniversary of the panic sell off in the gold shares. This time we will probably be launching up. I believe that when you see these last second sell offs for no reason just as you see gaps down at the opening, it is a very bullish sign. Chuck


The HUI closed up .61 to 151.99 and the XAU rose .28 to 77.54.

One more technical plus to sign off with. The Café Sentiment Indicator remains very positive. It is not an extreme, but it is at a point which has led to significant rallies in the past.

Some good times ought to be right around the corner.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Dann wollen wir mal schauen, ob sich heute der Goldpreis wieder "so lausig" verhält, wie sich unser Cabal Freund "silverpwd" gestern noch auszudrücken pflegte?

[jeffery2]

@silverp. hat nie gesagt, dass er ein Cabalfreund ist. Er ist halt skeptisch.
Musst Du jeden, der Dir nicht in A. kriecht gleich in die Ecke stellen.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

@Jeffery2

Bist Du nun wirklich so naiv, oder wolltest Du nur mal wieder einen Deiner Seitenhiebe verteilen?

Klar hat silverpwd nie gesagt, dass er ein Cabal Freund ist, warum sollte er auch.

Was er aber hier zu Gold als Gedankengut verbreitet, sind nun mal genau die Aussagen des Gold Cabals zum Gold, nicht mehr, und nicht weniger.

Die Vermutung liegt bei seinen gemachten Aeusserungen eben mehr als nahe, dass er aus dieser Interessenssphäre stammt.

Du scheinst wieder mal ein Problem zu haben Jeffery2.

Wenn mehrere verschiedene User zur selben Erkenntnis gekommen sind, dass sehr vieles mit der "Goldpreisgestaltung" nicht mit rechten Dingen zu und her geht, und diese Erfahrungen unter gleichgesinnten Gold Bugs einhellig diskutieren, hat das nichts mit A.... Kriechen zu tun, sondern zeugt von Erkennungspotenzial, und einer anscheinend inzwischen eher rar gewordenen Fähigkeit Dinge zu hinterfragen, die ich bei Deinen bisher gemachten Postings eher wenig, und bei Deinem heutigen Versuch einen Anti Gold Querrulanten, wie den "silverpwd" als ein "unschuldiges Opfer" verkaufen zu wollen, überhaupt nicht erkennen kann. Viele echte Gold Bugs geben eben gleichermaasen nicht die offizielle, für Gold meistens negative Cabal Meinung im Board wieder.

Das mit dem "in eine Ecke stellen", solltest Du Dir als Altmeister besser selbst an den Hut stecken, da genau Du selbst es warst, der viele User in eine Ecke stellen wollte, genauso als ich in meinem 1. Posting im WBoard überhaupt, folgende Tatsache geschrieben habe. Anscheinend kannst Du es auch heute noch nicht lassen.

"Die Federal Reserve Bank von Amerika * FED*, ist eine Privatbank ! [Thread-Nr.: 529740]

#5 von jeffery2 06.01.02 10:15:07 Beitrag Nr.: 5.265.400"

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Für Dich extra ohne Fettschrift

[silverpwd]

Ich habe den Namen Cabal noch nie gehört, die ganze Aufregung ist umsonst.

Wäret Ihr so nett mir nen Link zu dem `Cabal` Thread oder dessen Aussagen zu posten ? Wenn er dieselben Gedankengänge hat, wie ich, muss er ja nen schlaues Kerlchen sein , es interessiert mich welche Argumente er bringt.
Danke !

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=186353&fSection…

Last chance to avert mining strike

July 11, 2003

By Mokgadi Pela

Johannesburg - Talks to avert a crippling strike by more than 300 000 mineworkers went late into the night yesterday as the Commission for Conciliation Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA) applied every known tactic to bring the chamber of mines and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) closer to an agreement over wages and other conditions of service.

This followed three unsuccessful days of mediation, after which the union declared the impasse was "destined for strike action".

However, the chamber was optimistic that "a breakthrough could be found even at this late hour".

In a statement issued earlier in the week, the union said: "The situation is almost on the brink of a strike action."

Mine workers can no longer accept to open their chests to the brutality of dust and the maiming of rocks in pursuit of wealth for others, while their wives bathe their infants in tears and feed them on crumbs.

"We have told them to give us their final offers now, because in our view the process has reached its end."

The NUM is demanding an increase of 20 percent across the board. The union says companies whose formation and growth was based on mergers and acquisitions should equalise conditions of employment and wages by raising them to the level of the company that pays more.

The union also wants a minimum wage of R2 000 for all surface workers
.

The chamber is offering an amended wage increase of 8 percent for gold mines and 9 percent for collieries. The offer includes the achievement within two years of a minimum basic salary of R2 000 for all surface workers.

The chamber said the context of the wage offers was that "among other conditions, employees in gold and coal mining receive generous bonuses, a 12.5 percent employer contribution to the retirement fund, free accommodation,or a living-out allowance, free healthcare and a holiday leave allowance equal to a 13th cheque".

The union can resort to a legal strike after a ballot of its members because the CCMA failed to resolve the dispute. In that case, the pressure is on management.

Management, for its part, has the right to lock out workers.

Oustanding issues in the talks include the creation of a conducive environment for the employment of women in mining, the development of healthcare for dependents of employees and a framework dealing with the expansion of accommodation options.

The NUM`s last major industry-crippling strike was in 1987.

In spite of the tension, the chamber remained "positive that a last-minute magic wand could be waved to avert the strike".

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/jimmy/110703ld…

Funds driving silver - London Bullion Report

11th July 2003

Silver put on another spurt yesterday, outperforming the other precious metals as continued fund buying pushed the industrial metal to a high of $4.8750/850 during the New York session. Trader selling and light profit taking capped the rally and eventually pushed silver back to $4.81/2 by the COMEX close and further selling overnight has lead to a test of $4.75. The funds are likely to be the key over the coming session with their decision to continue buying being the fuel to push the metal above $4.90. Scaled up selling from traders and a lack of physical buying is likely to hamper the metals gains, although the steady gains being made by the Indian Rupee are likely to reduced some of the physical demand shortfall, moving the key Rupee-8,000/Kilo level higher in Dollar terms. Silver now needs to break above $4.90 in order to maintain the upward momentum or else face a re-test of $4.55 as the funds unwind their longs.



Gold continues to trade $342-5.50 for the moment, taking its short-term direction from swings in the currency markets. Support is likely to remain strong between $338-340.50(200-day moving average) while the 100-day moving average at $346.10 is capping the market for now. A break either side is likely to find follow through trade, although a break lower is likely to have the greatest impact, triggering another bout of long liquidation.

Platinum climbed to $680 late in New York`s session yesterday but selling emerged to cap the gains and selling from TOCOM overnight has pushed the metal back to $670. Continued selling around $675-80 is likely to cap the industrial metal for now although increasing industrial demand levels are likely to lead to a re-test of $700 at some point. Light buying has been seen in palladium overnight but the metals oversupply situation continues to cap any serious attempts higher.

James Moore

TheBullionDesk.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1057779014.php

Vista Gold Corp.

By: Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis

Vista Gold has been very quiet for the past four months, becoming uncannily quiet over the last few weeks – suggesting to me that a sizeable move is likely imminent.

Vista is a very interesting stock technically, somewhat bizarre and prone to violent swings in either direction. I do not regard this stock primarily as an investment, but rather as a speculative counter. If you get it right trading this stock, you can make a killing, equally, if you get it wrong, you get killed – for this is a stock that takes no prisoners. Accordingly, it should be treated with considerable respect.

I recommended Vista last November at $2.50, and again in early January at $4.35, as it was in an ascending parabolic uptrend, which I expected to break through the resistance at $6.00 and spike upwards to higher levels. It got to $6, then smartly turned around, the advance killed by a tidal wave of insider selling, broke the parabolic uptrend and came hammering back down again. It then formed a very tidy downward sloping symmetrical triangle, perched right on the 200-day moving average, before, in typical Vista fashion, a sharp plunge down to about $3. Since that plunge it has been trading sideways in a gradually narrowing trading range up to the present.



If we look now at the one-year chart for Vista we can see all the action I have described above. Pay particular attention to the interplay of the moving averages, this is extremely important for timing purposes – it was partly the relationship of the moving averages that prompted me to issue a “breakout alert” for Desert Sun a few days before the recent big move, but remember that we are always dealing with probabilities and not certainties. Observe the technically “tight” situation that now exists in Vista, with the price and the 50 and 200-day moving averages very close together and running virtually flat! Note that the slightly downtrending 200-day moving average will shortly turn up, as the higher price values last September drop out over the next couple of weeks. One sharp move up now by Vista and you will very quickly have a “golden cross” – the price above the 50-day moving average and this average rising up through the 200-day moving average – signalling the start of a new intermediate uptrend. We must keep in mind that the next significant move could be down not up, this stock tends to camouflage impending moves so that it can be very difficult to determine the direction of the next breakout. The reason it is important to make an assessment ahead of a breakout and take a position beforehand is that when Vista breaks out it tends to do so violently, and you can miss a substantial part of a move just by missing the breakout. What matters here is to determine the probability of an upside break relative to a downside break and then to determine the extent of the ensuing moves in both scenarios, this enables a trading strategy to be adopted whichever way it breaks. I rate the chance of an upside break in the near future at 70% against 30% for a downside break. There are several reasons for this; the first is that gold itself is oversold and the HUI looks to be preparing for a big upside move, the second is that Vista looks to be towards the bottom of a larger trading range bounded by $2.50 - $3.00 and $6.00, which I have drawn on the chart, the third is that the current trading range appears to be a gently rising flat-topped triangle – flat-topped triangles are bullish. The fourth is that Vista has been sold down hard and has not performed at all since late last year. I believe an upside break would likely take the price swiftly into the $4 - $4.50 area, where it will need to work off resistance from the trading in that triangle earlier in the year. On the other hand a downside break, which would probably be signalled by a sharp fall to about $2.80 would lead to the price retreating to support in the $2.50 area.

Obviously, the right way to trade this stock if options were available would be a straddle, calls with enough puts to cover a downside break. As I intimated above, I now view Vista as a traders stock, at least for the time being, investors who want a much more certain return on their money over a longer time frame should go for stocks like Golden Star and Miramar.

The uncanny quiet in Vista stock is dramatically illustrated by the one-year chart with bollinger bands. Here we see how these bands have narrowed remarkably in recent weeks, this behaviour is frequently the forerunner to a big move.



My fundamental knowledge of Vista is confined to the memory of a photo of a huge mining truck in a vast open pit, of the type that carted away Mt Price in Australia, so you will understand when I state that those interested in this stock should “do your own due diligence”.

To end on an encouraging note, the 10-year chart of Vista, shown below, shows a huge “Frying Pan” base with heavy upside volume over the past 18 months or so, which to me, longer-term, portends a probable huge rise, which, of course, fits with a much higher gold price.



Vista Gold Corp., VGZ on AMEX

Closed at $3.32 on 8th July 2003 ($3.25 at time of writing)

By Clive Maund, no responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Kaufbeuren, Germany, 9 th July 2003

Contact Clive Maund - [e-mail]

[jeffery2]

@thai, wie schön von Dir zu hören.
Wenn Du aber schon gerne olle Kamellen aufwärmst, dann stell den geneigten Lesern auch Kommentare meinerseits zur Verfügung, (weit aus Deinem ersten Erscheinen hier), die belegen, wie sehr auch ich mich mit den Machenschaften eben dieser GC auseinandergesetzt habe.
Eben, lange vor Deinen Erkenntnissen, leider haben viele der Diskutanten von damals reissaus genommen, ich kann sie verstehen.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

Das Ei des Kolumbus scheint gerade wieder enteckt worden zu sein!

Ab mitte 2002 werden alle Wirtschaftsprobleme Deutschlands behoben sein!

Der Staat kriegt die dringend benötigten Euros durch einen plötzlich einsetzenden Geldregen an bisher unvermuteten Steuergeldern. Eine Milliarde Euros zusätzlicher Einnahmen sind schon mal für 2004 verplant.
Wenn dieses geplante Gesetz Wirklichkeit werden wird, wird endlich ein dringen benötigter Bauboom ohne gleichen einsetzen. Bundesweit müssten innerhalb von Rekordzeit tausende neuer Gefängnisse, und Strafvollzugsanstalten gebaut werden, um dem Heer von bundesdeutschen Straftätern gerecht zu werden, und sie meschenrechtskonform unterzubringen.

Heerscharen von Arbeitslosen, und Ausgemusterte, könnten sofort wieder in der Baubranche in Arbeit, und Brot gebracht werden.

Durch die Inhaftierung dieser riesigen Masse von neuen Schwarzarbeits-Straftätern, werden sofort Millionen von Arbeitsplätzen frei, sodass das Arbeitslosen Problem mit einem Schlag gelöst wäre.

Die Universitätsabgänger hätten wieder eine neue Perspektive, und Karierechance. Hundertausende von neuen Anwalts-, und Richter Stellen würden sofort entstehen.

Die Notleidende deutsche Textil Industrie wird sofort wieder auf Hochtouren gebracht, und liefert die benötigten weiss/schwarz gestreiften Anzüge.

Ein riesiger Bedarf von grünen Transportfahrzeugen wird der deutschen Fahrzeug Industrie über Jahre die benötigten Absatzmengen garantieren.

Die notleidende deutsche Inland Tourismus Industrie wird durch die Millionen von plötzlich alleinstehenden deutschen Ehefrauen, die ungewollt wieder ihren Urlaub in Deutschland verbringen müssen, weil der Führerschein besitzende Ehemann gerade eine Strafe wegen Schwarzarbeit absitzen muss, riesigen Aufschwung erleben.

Die unter Absatzproblemen leidende ..............usw.

Wenn diese Ironie nicht so traurig wäre, müsste ich selbst darüber lachen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.welt.de/data/2003/07/12/132864.html

Schwarzarbeit soll eine Straftat werden

Rot-Grün plant neues Gesetz - Schattenwirtschaft erreicht ein Volumen von 370 Milliarden Euro
Berlin -

Die Bundesregierung will Schwarzarbeit schärfer verfolgen. Mitte 2004 solle dazu ein Gesetzentwurf vorgelegt werden, kündigte ein Sprecher des Bundesfinanzministeriums an. Danach soll Schwarzarbeit künftig strafrechtlich verfolgt werden können und nicht mehr nur als Ordnungswidrigkeit gelten. Dies gelte für den Schwarzarbeiter, den Auftraggeber und all jene, die derartige Beschäftigung begünstigen. Die Höhe des Strafmaßes werde im Zuge des Gesetzgebungsverfahrens in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Bundesjustizministerium geklärt, sagte der Sprecher.

Das Ministerium schließe auch Freiheitsstrafen nicht aus.


Die Neuregelung soll bereits 2004 Mehreinnahmen von einer Mrd. Euro bringen. Gleichzeitig plant Rot-Grün eine umfangreiche Kampagne, um die Bevölkerung auf das Phänomen der Schwarzarbeit aufmerksam zu machen. "Schwarzarbeit ist kein Kavaliersdelikt, sondern handfeste Wirtschaftskriminalität, die dem Gemeinwesen schweren Schaden zufügt", sagte der Sprecher.

Nach Berechnungen des Linzer Schattenwirtschaftsexperten Friedrich Schneider und des Instituts für angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW) in Tübingen erreicht die deutsche Schattenwirtschaft im laufenden Jahr ein Volumen von 370 Mrd. Euro. Das entspricht rund 17 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes. Im Vergleich zu 2002 bedeutet dies eine weitere Zunahme um 5,6 Prozent. Grund sei, dass steigende Steuern und insbesondere steigende Sozialbeiträge 2003 die Belastung des Faktors Arbeit weiter erhöhten, sagte Schneider. Entsprechend skeptisch zeigte sich Schneider gegenüber den Plänen der Bundesregierung. Maßnahmen der stärkeren Kontrolle und Bestrafung seien vielleicht flankierend durchaus sinnvoll und notwendig, versuchten jedoch, Symptome zu kurieren, anstatt die Ursachen tatsächlich zu bekämpfen, sagte Schneider.

Die Zuständigkeit für die Verfolgung von Schwarzarbeit soll bei der Zollverwaltung gebündelt werden. Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel will dazu 5000 neue Stellen schaffen. Ein Teil davon soll mit Mitarbeitern der Bundesanstalt für Arbeit besetzt werden, die dort bislang mit Razzien und Prüfungen auf Baustellen oder in Firmen beschäftigt waren. "Ob tatsächlich zusätzliche Stellen geschaffen werden, wird sich erst noch zeigen", sagte Dieter Ondracek, Chef der Deutschen Steuergewerkschaft, die die Finanzbeamten vertritt." cw

Artikel erschienen am 12. Jul 2003

[ThaiGuru]

@Jeffery2

Du hast Recht, mindestens drei, vier davon hast Du selbst auf dem Gewissen. Bei mir warst Du jedoch damals nicht so erfolgreich, mit Deiner ganz eigenen Art jeweils neue User im Goldboard, sofern sie nicht zu Deiner Denkweise passten, sofort mit Deiner ganz eigenen Art von Kurzpostings einzudecken, mit dem Ziel sie aus dem WGold Board raus zu posten.

Wenn Du schon mal vor langer Zeit einen Thread zu irgend einem Thema zum Goldgeschehen eröffnet hast, heisst das ja wohl sicher nicht, dass ein neuer User sich des selben Themas nicht nochmals befassen darf.

Du solltest besser nicht mit verschiedenen Latten messen.

Gerade heute wieder hast Du durch Dein Posting leider auf`s neue bewiesen, dass es Dir eigentlich gar nicht so sehr um die Sache Gold geht, sondern eher darum einem "Neuling" von damals, den Du von Beginn weg anscheinend wegen seiner Fettgedruckten Zeilen nie gemocht hattest, wieder mal ein`s auswischen zu wollen.

Dass dem so ist, weisst Du genau, und ich weiss es auch.

Du brauchst es mir über einen Vorwand wie den "Silverpwd" nicht mehr aufs neue zu beweisen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[konradi]

.



am 23.Februar 2001 (!!!) ...



- gab es bei n-tv eine Sendung zum Thema Goldinvestment (mit Gianni Hirschmüller [Cognitrend] und Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach [Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein]) - mit einem sich anschließendem Chat . Vielleicht ist es für die Neuen hier ja mal ganz interessant nachzulesen, wie weit die "Cabal"-Diskussion seitdem vorangekommen ist. Zudem lohnt es auch, mal in den alten Threads zu kramen und zu schauen, wer da vom altehrwürdigen "Boardadel" heute noch dabei ist ...

(Ich weiß Jeffery, Du haßt Fettschrift, aber Ehre wem Ehre gebührt und daher habe ich Deinen Beitrag mal hervorgehoben ...

Gruß Konradi




Guten Tag

ursilfono:
Gold ist jetzt seit 20 Jahren gefallen, als Contrarian doch ein cooles Investment oder nicht?

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Aus meiner Sicht nicht. Die Rolle des Metalls hat sich zu sehr verändert, es ist nicht mehr das Sicherheitspolster wie in vergangenen Zeiten. Das hemmt die Nachfrage und auf der angebotsseite geben die Zentralbanken zu viel ab.

ProGold:
Herr Wrzesniok Sie sagten im vorausgegangenem Interview, die Nachfrage nach physischem Gold würde nachlassen. Das World Gold Council hat aber eine Rekordnachfrage im 4. Quartal 2000 publiziert, die den bisherigen Rekord vom 3. Quartal 1999 überboten hat. Wie passt das zusammen?

Fridolin153:
hallo

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Ich habe mich dabei auf die Situation vor Ort bezogen. Wenn man zum Beispiel das Geschäft an unseren Schaltern ansieht, kommt nur Gold herein. International sieht es anders aus, Indien, Südostasien (wieder) fragen weiter stark Gold nach. Wobei die Wirtschaftskrise in der Türkei oder auch das Erdbeben in Indien Einbußen bringen werden. Auch eine möglicherweise nachgebende Konjunktur in Europa/Amerika hätte diesen Effekt.

SOMyou:
So : Erste Frage zur Nachfrage / Angebotsseite : Übersteigt nicht die Nachfrage das Angebot um mehrere xxxx tonnen ?

BossCube:
Die Nachfrage ist um über 1000 t größer.

Schmidt M:
... das straft den goldpreis lügen ...

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Ja und nein. Die Nachfrage ist deutlich höher als die Minenproduktion (1999 4100 Tonnen vs. rund 2600 Tonnen). Die Differenz wird aber mehr als ausgeglichen durch Zentralbankverkäufe und Terminabsicherungen von Minen.

Techniker1:
Wenn man sich den Gold-Chart einmal näher anschaut, dann steck da doch noch viel Phantasie drin. Wir befinden uns gerade nahe einer Unterstützung. Wenn die nicht hält, dann rauschen wir bis 180 US-Dollar. Aber wir haben auch durchaus Platz nach oben. Wie sehen Sie das Szenario?

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
180 Dollar ist gleich ziemlich pessimistisch. Die Nachfrage würde hier sicherlich steigen, das Minenangebot deutlich zurückgehen und Zentralbanken nicht mehr verkaufen. Das stabilisiert den Markt vorher noch.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Nach oben schließen wir einen ausbruch derzeit auch nicht gänzlich aus, 280 shen wir aber derzeit als Maximum an.

BossCube:
Gold steigt erst dann richtig, wenn Private demoralisiert alles verkauft haben und sich die Investmentbanken die Keller vollgeladen haben. Die Berichterstattung erfüllt genau diesen Zweck.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Wohl kaum, es gibt sicherlich für Investmentbanken bessere Möglichkeiten ihr Kapital einzusetzen als durch den Kauf von Gold.

baisse:
die wären?

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Außerdem kann ich mir auch keine anderen Gründe vorstellen. Gold spielt im Investmentbanking keine besondere Rolle.

Goldbrief:
Wird aber wieder!!!

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Da haette ich nichts dagegen.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Die Schwerpunkte, die in der Regel ja nicht überkapitalisierte Investmentbanken setzen lassen sich ja den Zeitungen entnehmen, hier genannt ohne eigene Wertung: Vermögensverwaltung, M&A, Aktienmärkte

Aureleus:
Herrr Wrzesniok....keine besondere Rolle? Investmentbanken verdienen sich Jahr für jahr eine goldene Nase an den Goldderivatgeschäften...woollen Sie uns verscheißern?

ChannelMaster:
Es ist jetzt 14.30 Uhr.

Aureleus:
denn so bearish wie heute war das Volk noch nie in Sachen Gold

BossCube:
Hallo

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Also, im Vergleich zu den anderen Aktivitäten des Investmentbankings sind die Erträge aus dem Goldgeschäft marginal, selbst bei großen amerikanischen und schweizer Adressen. Das ist der Fakt. Andere Rohstoffe sind da im Moment wesentlich interessanter und selbst bei den Edelmetallen iist bei Platin und Palladium mehr Musik drin.

Moderator:
Es gibt unter den Chattern einige Anhänger der Manipulations-These:

pagan:
Was halten Sie von der Möglichkeit, daß der Goldpreis nach unten manipuliert wird, damit die großen Minengesellschaften wie Anglo Gold etc. kleinere und noch unabhängige Mine besser übernehmen können? Sozusagen die Globalisierung des Goldmarktes...n

BossCube:
So ist es, N-TV

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Gleich was zur Manipulationstheorie.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Zunächst zu den Minen

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Die Minen die zuerst zu Übernahmekandidaten würden sind die mit hohen Produktionskosten, sich die aufzuhalsen kann nicht im Interesse der großen Gesellschaften sein. Anglogold hat vielmehr Minen abgestoßen, gerade Harmony hat solche marginalen Minen übernommen und denen gehts ganz gut.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Die ohne Zweifel anstehende Konzentration im Minenbereich gibt es in anderen Branchen auch, hat außerdem mit dem hohen Kapitalbedarf zu tun, 1 neuer Schacht kostet 1 Mrd. Dollar.

Moderator:
Jetzt also etwas zur Konspiration:

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Zu den Vorwürfen von Gata. Ich halte nichts davon. Aus unseren Erfahrungen können die Zahlen, die von gata gestreut werden nicht stimmen. Von Zentralbanken verliehenes Gold in Höhe von 17.000 können nicht stimmen.

Moderator:
Hinweis: Es wird nicht zensiert. Wir nehmen auch kritische Fragen dran. Es sind liegen aber sehr viele Fragen vor, sorry.

SOMyou:
die antworten könnten auch etwas flotter kommen

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Auch bestehen keine entsprechenden Minuspositionen. Fonds waren bis Herbst 99 bestimmt mit großen Positionen im Markt. Die wurden nach den Verlusten aber weitgehend geschlossen.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Also ich schreib ja schon so schnell ich kann...

jeffery2:
Warum wenden sich die von der Gata verklagten Investmentbanken nicht an die Öfffentlichkeit und widersprechen der Theorie, daß 8-10000t Gold geshortet worden sind und dies eine ernste weltwirtschaftkrise auslösen würde, wenn die eindeckungen jemals vorgenommen werden müßten

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Schwer zu sagen, bei den Beteiligten wird die Theorie vielleicht für so absurd gehalten, dass sie sie nicht kommentieren wollen. Hat vielleicht auch rechtliche Gründe, gerade in den USA..

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Weltwirtschaftskrise. Wenn die Zahlen stimmen würden, und es käme zueinem Shortsqueeze hätte das Folgen. Wenn aber die Theorie nicht stimmt, dann kann es auch keine Folgen geben.

Goldbrief:
Der Goldpreisschwindel beginnt schon mit dem Goldpreis-Fixing. Wer hat die 7 Banken in London ermächtigt für 6 Milliarden Menschen täglich zwei Goldfixings vorzunehmen. Da wird der Goldpreis nicht nach Angebot und Nachfrage ermittelt, sondern nach dem Gutdünken dieser Banken. Und die kochen wohl Ihr eigenes Süppchen!?

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Das Fixing stellt zweimal am Tag eine Momentaufnahme dar. Parallel dazu und ansonsten vorher und nachher auch wird überall auf der Welt Gold gehandelt und der Preis nach angebot und Nachfrage festgestellt. Ein Devisenfixing oder ein Dax-Schlusskurs ist ja auch keine Manipulation.

Schmidt M:
... so seh i das a ...

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Sind übrigens nur fünf Banken. Macht das aber auch nicht schlimmer.

BossCube:
Warum wird Gold so bekämft? Weil es der Gegenpol zum Falschgeld (Fiat Money) ist.

Moderator:
Was ist denn Fiat Money?

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Es gibt auch falsche Barren....

BossCube:
N-TV. Geld, das aus NICHTS geschaffen wird.

Schmidt M:
plumbum ... ;-))

BossCube:
Die Echtheit der Barren kann ich ja wohl ohne Probleme überprüfen.

gunnar2250:
fiat-money: Es werde Geld.........

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Gold wird meines Erachtens nicht bekämpft. Es hat nur seit den 70ern seine Rolle als Währungsreserve verloren und seitdem in vielen Gegenden nicht mehr als ein normaler Rohstoff.

BossCube:
Gold ist Geld.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Damit unterliegt es den normalen Gesetzen von angebot und Nachfrage und die Zentralbanken sitzen auf 30.000 Tonnen ohne wirklich zu wissen, was sie damit sollen. Es bringt keine Rendite dort, ausser bei einem kleinen Teil, den man verleihen kann.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Und der Zinssatz liegt bei 1 - 2 %, haut die Zentralbanker nicht gerade um.

ProGold:
Haben Sie Informationen darüber wieviel einzelne Notbanken verliehen haben?

MWagner:
Gold ist nur solange Geld wie man daran glaubt

BossCube:
MWagner. Papiergeld auch. Oder was war 1923 und 1948?

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Die Schweizer sind die einzigen, die es bekanntgeben, etwas über 200 Tonnen, glaube ich, ansonsten gibt es Schätzungen von Gold Fields Mineral Services, die sehen die Gesamtsumme bei rund 6000 Tonnen. Ich glaube dass die Zahl einigermassen stimmt.

SOMyou:
Zum Thema Rohstoff : Ist nicht Gold auch für einen weiteren Industriellen EInsatz zu verwenden ( ähnlich wie die Metalle der Platingruppe ?) . Zumindest liegen hierzu schon Studien vor. Wie beurteilen Sie einen möglichen EInsatz, ähnlich wie Palladium in Katalysatoren ?

BossCube:
Für Gold finden sich unzählige industrielle Anwendungen. Es ist nicht zu ersetzen. Deshalb fällt der Preis....

Schmidt M:
... nach oben ...

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Es gibt intensive Forschungen auf dem Gebiet, Anglo arbeitet daran, aber noch ohne Ergebnisse. Die Bedeutung in der Elektronicindustrie hat eher abgenommen.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
75 % gehen nun mal in die Schmuckindustrie im Moment.

phils:
nochmal die frage: stimmt es, dass sowohl bill gates als auch george soros und warren buffet in silber investiert ist?

BossCube:
Phils: JA

BossCube:
Gates hält ca 10% an Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Aureleus:
die haben ihre eigenen Minen

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
buffet hat es bestätigt, war 98, es gibt aber Gerüchte, dass er inzwischen wieder einen Teil verkauft hat. Gates s.o.

ursilfono:
phils: Schau mal bei Berkshire Hataway vorbei wegen Buffet

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Silber rlebt imemr wieder spekulative Attacken.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
erlebt...

baisse:
Sehen Sie den Gold Carry-Trade als so unrentabel an, daß eine Gold-Preis-Manipulation ausgeschlossen ist?

BossCube:
Erläutern Sie bitte den Carrytrade.

ChannelMaster:
Es ist jetzt 15.00 Uhr.

Moderator:
Wir haben noch sehr viele interessante Statements vorliegen. Leider ist unsere Zeit schon fast um..

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Carrytrade heisst hier: Gold verkaufen, das Geld in anderen (lukrativere?) Märkte anlegen, und die bestehende Goldlieferverpflichtung mit billigem, geliehenem Gold erfüllen.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
In Wellen können solche Trades den Markt beeinflussen, gerade wenn Fonds Gold verkaufen um sich Geld zu besorgen, dass sie in anderen Märkten anlegen wollen. Ist jedoch gefährlich, wenn der Preis steigt gibt es Verluste.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Das ist ja was GATA wem auch immer vorwirft. Die Theorie ist im Grundsatz ja richtig, ich glaube nur, dass die Minuspositionen in der Form nicht bestehen.

nicole Simon:
Wie ist der goldhandel im chancen Risikoprofil für den Privatanleger einzuschätzen

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Well, weniger gefährlich als der Neue Markt- Gold in physischer Form ist kein tolles Investment, Sicherheitsgründe, An-Verkaufsspreads etc.

ursilfono:
nicole: Das Risiko nach unten ist eher minimal, wenn man davon ausgeht, dass der grösste Teil der Minen Produktionskosten um die 250$/Unze haben.

BossCube:
Die meisten Shortpositionen liegen um 290$ Ab da wird es interessant.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Soweit jemand spekulieren will ist es ok, Goldoptionsscheine (hohes Risiko) oder Aktien sind dann der Weg.

BossCube:
Ursil, viele Minen haben kosten über 300$. JETZT können nur wenige Minen profitabel arbeiten.

ursilfono:
Nicole: Zur Sicherheit würde ich aber auch etwas physisches Gold ins Depot nehmen, man weiss ja nie. Spread hin oder her.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Produktionskosten, Selbst in Südafrika (Fördertiefe 4000 m ) sind die Kosten inzwischen deutlich tiefer, nicht zuletzt durch die Abwertung des Rand. Es gibt viele, gerade neue Minen, die zwischen 100 und 150 Dollar Kosten haben

Wolfgang Wrzesniok:
Un die Zentralbanken sitzen auf ca. 13 Jahrensproduktionen (Förderkosten gleich null), außer dem Tranporter von brinks


(gepostet von "SOM.you." am 23.02.2001)

[silverpwd]

2001/06/11

"The warnings were not heeded, but now it’s too late. Gold bugs who know the truth have been warning for more than two years that gold was subject to manipulation and now so many people know about it that nothing can be done to stop it.
This has been obvious since the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee went to Durban, South Africa. With the support of the King of the Zulus, Gata presented a powerful case to the most important and influential people in that country; a country that is crippled by the low gold price manufactured by a cabal of bankers and politicians.
Despite concerted efforts to prevent gold attaining its natural price level, Friday saw a repeat of previous efforts to break out of its artificial lows. Since the Durban conference, the bullion banks and central bankers have been spooked by the knowledge that this manipulation of the world’s only genuine money is now known by millions of people. That is why gold has been going up so far so fast.
Thousands of serious investors have loaded up on gold at these low prices, actually thankful for the stupidity of the by the cabal - because gold has begun its ascent and this is just the beginning, there will be an explosion above $300 an ounce. That is why the metal has battled to breach that level. We have seen the bullion banks aggressively shorting gold anywhere close to $300 an ounce because they know it spells disaster for the whole financial system. There is not enough gold in the entire world to fill their short positions.
That is why, when gold goes to $300 an ounce, we will see the mightiest banks crash to the ground. Not even Alan Greenspan, with his hatred for real money, will be able to save the members of the cabal this time because the gold carry is just too large. And we can expect the dollar to collapse with huge inflation in the United States and general instability and even rioting.
In the meantime we will see gold acting like a racehorse, struggling to break free from its trainer so that it can run free. Don’t be surprised if the reins are pulled in tight from time to time because there is so much at stake. Alan Greenspan’s entire reputation rests on making this work, just as the central bankers must all collaborate to make their fiat currencies prevail. That is the only way to control whole populations.
That is why Tony Blair won the British election. The Europeans made sure that he would win (just look at the low poll turnout) because they cannot afford to have the pound trading against the euro. That is why Blair has supported the sale of British gold – the birthright of every UK citizen.
The gold cabal is responsible for creating a bullion pressure cooker and we should not be sorry for them when it all comes tumbling down. I say gold may be going to $600, but that is only after it settles down. The mad scramble for metal will unleash price increases that make California’s energy price hikes look tame by comparison. We could eventually be paying thousands of dollars for one ounce and won’t we be glad that we bought at $255 an ounce?
The hedged gold producers will also get what they deserve. They have undermined the gold price by selling their own product forward. That is the most foolish thing to do, but it is better for the unhedged producers who will come in and scoop up these dying firms. These companies will have to deliver into their hedge books like Ashanti and Cambior, but they cannot do it. They are slaves to the bullion banks and the criminal masterminds behind global fiat currencies.
Gold’s coming boom will be so revolutionary that we should not be surprised if governments are toppled. The US Treasury has been engaging in illegal intervention in the gold market and the good people of Britain will surely rise up when they realise that their birthright has been sold from under them.
Gold will change everything because a conspiracy can’t last forever. But make sure you own it before the crisis erupts, if it is not too late already."


Wo sind eigentlich die zusammengebrochene Banken geblieben aus dem Artikel oben ? Warum ist das Finanzsystem noch nicht vollkommen zusammengebrochen ?
Das zu dem Thema WIEVIEL SCHEISS seit Ewigkeiten geschrieben wird, wenns um Gold geht, vorallendingen in den Goldbriefen. 99% totaler Bockmist.

[jeffery2]

#370, habe mir soeben 4 Striche auf meine Maus gemalt.
Also gut, silverpwd. ist ein verkappter Cabalist, das wars doch . Jetzt hat das Böse eben einen Namen.
Tja, ich mag eben Gurus nicht und schon garnicht so strenge.
Trotzdem, schönen Sonntag noch
J2

[silverpwd]

Bei Google ist bei `Gold Cabal` der obige Artikel dabei rausgekommen, schlau werde ich zwar immer noch nicht draus und die Herren klären mich ja auch nicht auf, aber gut von mir aus bin ich auch Kanibale ä... Cabalist...

[ThaiGuru]

July 11 - Gold $344.50 up 20 cents - Silver $4.78 down 2 cents

Gold Ready To Rocket Next Week Redux

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought." ...Albert Szent-Gyorgyi (1893-1986) Nobel Laureate in Physiology

Another choppy day for gold. While it really didn’t go anywhere, the fact that gold held steady in the face of a sharply lower euro and a surging stock market was a noticeable positive and gives more credence to the notion we are close, or at, a bottom.

This was the news that sent the euro (112.91, down .75) in the tank:

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell against the dollar and the yen after the Financial Times said on its Web site that German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called on the European Central Bank to devalue its currency to help the region`s exports.

In an interview with the U.K. newspaper, Schroeder said he assumed the ECB would discuss ``whether they have done enough in the context of the dollar/euro exchange rate to maintain the competitiveness of exports from Europe.`` The ECB yesterday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent.

The euro fell to $1.1357 at 8:01 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.1379 late yesterday in New York. It also dropped to 133.71 yen, from 133.79. ECB President Wim Duisenberg said yesterday that policy makers viewed with ``some relief`` the euro`s 2.5 percent decline against the dollar in the past month.

``Obviously, if Schroeder`s making these comments, the euro`s going to be sold off,`` said Paul McNee, chief currency trader in Melbourne at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. ``Talking about urgent action needed to correct the euro has gotten the market`s attention.`` The euro may fall to $1.13 and 133 yen today, he said. –END-

There is a good shot the physical market is proving to be too much for The Gold Cartel at these prices. If there ever was a day for the cabal to let into gold, it would be on a summer Friday afternoon when the dollar was surging against the euro. Two years ago, gold would have dropped $5.

Gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Mini positive: gold fell one tick below yesterday’s low and closed higher. Always a good technical sign.

Once again, gold and silver closed on the opposite sides of unchanged.

Some goodies:

*The gold open interest ROSE sharply to 190,366, up a sizeable 5038 contracts. How curious this number is about what John Henry reportedly sold yesterday. This suggests Henry went short, trying to disguise his selling by going overseas. Talk about a maneuver backfiring. Some disguise. It has been trumpeted all over the place. Those trades were put on at least $2 below today’s close. It won’t be long before the sharks go after Henry on this trade.

*The silver open interest also rose sharply, even more so than gold on a relative basis, some 4032 contracts. The silver open interest is 89,641. Yesterday’s selling came out of Asia, most likely China. The good news is the Chinese physical supply overhang, which has been one of the factors plaguing silver, is RAPIDLY running out. That input is from the horse’s mouth.

Silver ran straight up before setting back off of yesterday’s high right below $490. It could rest for a bit, but ought to challenge and take out $5 within the next few weeks.

The big picture bullish megaphone formation is still intact, with gold showing strong support below $344. Gold should run when it takes out $350.

Last week, right before the July 4th holiday in the US, the headline for the MIDAS read:

July 3 - Gold $350.80 down 50 cents - Silver $4.67 up 4 cents
Gold Ready To Rocket Next Week

I should have said silver, instead of gold, as it did rocket close to $4.90. Nevertheless, if at first you don’t succeed, try again. Yes, my rocket turned into a submarine, but this chameleon ought to turn back into a rocket ship again, submerging from the deep to soar upwards THIS coming week.

Many of the reasons are the same. Oil is still above $31 at $31.28. The economic news in the US stinks. The gold cash market is VERY strong. The gold shares are resolute. The stock market is way overdue to be bopped on the head. There is little reason for investors to pour into a vulnerable dollar. And, the Cafe Sentiment Index remains bullish. But, the big wild card is the Iraq mess. It is a horror show that is liable to intensify in many regards:

*Richard Nixon was thrown out of office for covering up a rinky-dink burglary. Bill Clinton was impeached for lying about oral sex. George Bush, or his CIA, lied about the major reasons for the US to rush into war, which has led to the deaths of many brave US soldiers. That is no minor matter, and must be dealt with, as it is a FAR more serious affair than what Nixon or Clinton did. The credibility of the United States is on the line.

*The Democrat leadership and their Presidential contenders are out for blood and are going to press the issue until the cows come home. What a disingenuous, timid group? This information was known before the US went to war, but because the opinion polls were so pro-war and pro-Bush, most all went along with the pro-war Republican Party line (except for newcomers Dean and Kucinich). Now that Bush and his neo-cons have been caught, they have turned like dogs, putting their own spin on the matter. The point here is the markets (dollar, stock and gold) have not paid much attention to this growing flap. That is liable to change DRAMATICALLY in the coming weeks.

*Worst of all, the war is worsening in terms of attacks on US forces. It could easily get out of hand. What will President Bush do, acknowledge the war is on again? Rumsfeld stated the cost for the war, which supposedly ended, has gone up to $4 billion per month, double what he said it would be only last April. What will he project in October? Who is going to pay for all this? Lower taxes, spend more money, grow those deficits. Bad news for the dollar.

Long before the Iraq war started, I said this would be the biggest blunder in US history. It is very much looking like it could end up that way. The rage in American TV are these inane Reality TV shows. It is ironic that while the US public is dullerizing its brains out on this nonsense, the most jolting Reality TV show of all is about to be played out over the Bush/neo-con mess. Ratings will be way up on this one. It’s a wake-up call for the American public. This is only the beginning. The next one will be when the stock market tanks and their 401K disappears for good.

The darkness over America, much of which can be initially related to the rigging of the gold price under the auspices of Robert Rubin and President Clinton, is spreading. Wall Street, the financial press, the bullion banks, the Republican/Democrat leadership are out of control. Collectively they continue to throw away or abuse many of the principles and ideals which made America great. Much of the rest of the world sees this and they don’t like what they see. That won’t change until we change and correct our ills.

None of us wanted this scenario, but it’s here and worsening. As it all plays out in the weeks and months ahead, the number one go-to-play will be GOLD! Just a matter of time.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG (1774, up 18) and the DOW (9119, up 83) continue to ignore mediocre to crummy economic news and are still charging ahead. The stock market action is reminiscent of the later stages of last mania, which culminated in March of 2000. Regardless of the news, the market keeps going higher. And that news is not good. Love this headline:

U.S. Producer Price Core Index Declined 0.1% in June
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. wholesale prices excluding food and energy fell in June for the second time in three months, reflecting cheaper automobiles, computers and appliances, a government report showed.

The so-called core producer price index, which measures costs paid to factories, farmers and other producers for goods other than food and energy, unexpectedly declined 0.1 percent after rising 0.1 percent in May, the Labor Department reported in Washington. In April, the core index fell 0.9 percent. A rebound in energy prices lifted the overall index 0.5 percent, following a 0.3 percent drop a month earlier. –END-

The bottom line is prices went up .5% in one of the most important categories as far as consumers are concerned, their fuel and energy costs. The long anticipated oil price plunge following the war, the one which was going to give the consumer big energy cost savings, has not materialized. Worse, natural gas and fuel costs look to go UP from here, on a combined basis, as winter sets in.

Meanwhile, the trade deficit is not improving even though the dollar is way off its highs:

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit held close to the widest ever for a third straight month as demand for non-oil imported goods continued to rise, a government report showed.

The $41.8 billion trade gap in goods and services followed a revised $41.6 billion April deficit, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The deficit reached a record of $42.9 billion in March. –END-

The DOG keeps roaring, but the high-tech news is not robust at all:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Dell Computer shares took a hit Thursday as investors seemed concerned about cautious comments made by its president to J.P. Morgan analysts regarding the outlook for the personal-computer market…..
Before the market opened, however, J.P. Morgan analysts, led by Bill Shope, released a research note detailing information from a meeting with president and chief operating officer Kevin Rollins regarding the company and the PC market.

In the note, Shope said Rollins was "very explicit in his view that there are no signs of any end user demand recovery." Shope said that Rollins specifically highlighted a lack of new proposal requests from businesses, as well as no significant growth in the consumer or small-business segments. –END-

Et tu, too Coke?:

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Coca-Cola Co., the world`s largest soft-drink maker, said federal prosecutors are investigating a former executive`s charges that it inflated sales and profits.

The U.S. attorney`s office in Atlanta has started a probe into allegations by Matthew Whitley, former director of finance for the fountain division, the company said in a statement. Coca-Cola last month disclosed a Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry

GATA’s Mike Bolser kicks in with some sense:

Bill:

The long awaited breakage of the DOW`s 30-Day moving average occurred at yesterday`s close. Today`s repo issuance of only $1.75Billion coupled with an $8Billion expiration, drags the repo pool total down to its lowest point since mid-March, just after the "Iraq War Rally" began.

The DOW`s ma has yet to turn down but that event is almost a certainty as we now have a clear window through which to observe the Fed`s open market plans.

One should not be come too pessimistic at the DOW`s apparent resilience. At this writing [Noon] the index is still up about 90. This false strength will not last into next week. The recent up and down pattern of the DOW is another classical technical manifestation of an approaching trend reversal.

Today`s big drop in repo pool totals tells me that the Fed has finally gotten serious about taking the alcohol away from the Wall Street punch bowl.

Fasten your seat belts.

Mike

It wasn’t long ago that several Café members were jumping up and down about US silver products not living up to the specifications advertised. The problem seems much worse in India:

BIS chief warns against impurities in gold, silver

FRIDAY, JULY 11, 2003 01:56:19 AM

The next time you are tempted to buy decorative silverware or even a silver coin bearing goddess Laxmi`s image, think twice.

For, the silver content in the article could well be as low as zero per cent, or as high as 35 per cent! And you might end up paying the price of pure silver.

This was disclosed by P.K. Shilotri and Gopalkrishnan, head and directors of the Pune office of Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) while speaking on ‘Gold and silver: How much of it is pure?’, during the inauguration of the ‘Samajik Chaturmas’ organised by the Akhil Bharatiya Grahak Panchayat (ABGP) here on Thursday.

Addressing over 600 ABGP activists in the packed Lokmanya auditorium, Gopalkrishnan revealed that consumers ended up being cheated the most while purchasing silver articles from jewellers.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"An all-India survey and testing done by the BIS showed that the average silver content in silver items is a mere 22 per cent. In Pune, the average is slightly higher, at 35 per cent," he stated…….. –END-

After running around the world on GATA`s behalf for more than four years, at times just shake my head at in wonderment. The latest head spin comes after reading this www.Mineweb.com article:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"‘Gold to $400, then it`s tickets’ – Goodwin"

Some excerpts:

In a twist which should please his disillusioned supporters, Goodwin said trading activity on the bullion market suggested large gold producers were "fighting like mad to keep it below $370/oz", to protect hedge positions. "If it makes its through there, it’ll touch $400/oz but it will struggle to hang onto that level," he said.

Wrong call?

Goodwin, revered by gold bugs the world over as a bellwether gold bull, was on the receiving end of a fierce backlash from erstwhile supporters, when he turned negative on the gold shares in March last year.

He told clients to flee into put warrants to escape a JSE gold index which was to crash from its level then of 2,800 points, to 1,900 points. No sooner had he made the call, than the index gained another 800 points to peak at 3,600 points. Goodwin is unrepentant about the opportunity loss….

-END-

This is what I wrote on Feb 15, 2001:


2/15 GATA`s Journey to South Africa


GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE

GATA`s Journey to South Africa

That afternoon I met with Nick Goodwin, South African gold guru analyst, and Johann Blersch, Managing Director of Ing Barings Bank. That meeting went well and Nick arranged a meeting with ten of the senior gold analysts in Johannesburg the next day in his office to listen to a GATA presentation. It amazed me that Nick could corral so many of them on such short notice…-END-

Nick could not have been nicer, nor more helpful. Yet, soon after he dropped off my radar screen and did not bother to discuss the gold market with me any further. That’s fine, but strangely enough, he turned bearish on gold and the gold shares with gold around $300 (great presentation I made). I found his switch very odd because he was known as one of South Africa’s most prominent gold bulls. Oh well!

What is really bizarre, however, is his statement in this article that "gold producers were "fighting like mad to keep it below $370/oz", to protect hedge positions." While certain gold producers might have been distressed if gold broke through $370, further putting their hedgebooks under water, they would not have had the wherewithal to prevent gold from exploding. Not at a time when hedgers are dramatically REDUCING their forward sales positions. It was The Gold Cartel who broke gold down, not the producers.

For the entire article, go to

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/SBAY-5PBN6V?OpenDocumen…

The gold shares stormed back late in the day to close steady to higher. The XAU rose .55 to 78.09, while the HUI was steady at 152, up .01.

The HUI was very impressive, holding 150 and its uptrend line. It has corrected an overbought condition over a brief period of time without giving up much ground. Its recent and 52-week high is only a hop skip and a jump away at 157.82 – a number which should be breached very soon.

Batten down the hatches. Storms are a brewin`. Gold and the gold shares are going to rumble in the weeks ahead.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[hpoth]

@ Thai Guru,
Wie die Regierung die Schwarzabeit bekämpfen will ist für mich der falsche Weg.Es müßte vieleicht so zu regeln sein, indem jeder der investiert im privaten Bereich die Aufwendungen von seiner Steuerlast absetzten kann. Der Saat häte das ja nur vorzufinanzieren, denn dadurch kämen ja mehr beschäftigte im Wirtschafskreislauf, es könnte mehr Lohnsteuer eingenommen werden, Merwehrtsteuer, Sozialbeiträge ect..Allerdings nur bei Vorlage von Rechnungen die von einer eingetragene Firma stammen.
Der Ablauf wäre ja ähnlich wie im gewerblichen Bereich, hier kann die Vorsteuer mit dem Aufwand der Steuerlast verrechnet werden.
Die 370 MRD Schwarzarbeit muß eben mit der Steuer bekämpft werden und nicht mit mehr Beamten und Strafen.Gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Wie die Regierung die Schwarzabeit bekämpfen will ist für mich der falsche Weg"

Sehr ich genau so wie Du

Es kann doch nicht das Ziel einer Regierung sein, einen Grossteil der eigenen Bevölkerung kriminalisieren zu wollen, nur weil sie glauben ihre eigenen Steuer, und Finanzpolitischen Fehler anders nicht mehr in den Griff kriegen, oder finanzieren zu können.

Dieses geplante Gesetz, ist nur eine Symtomsbekämpfung und würde die Schwarzarbeit überhaupt nicht verhindern, nur noch mehr in den Untergrund drängen.

Die geplante 1 Milliarde Euro zusätzliche Steuereinnahmen für 2004, wären durch den zusätzlichen Aufwand an Stellen, und Kontrollen, Gerichte und den Strafvollzug, vermutlich bald wieder eine Nullrechnung.

Steuern müssen bezahlt werden, daran führt kein Weg vorbei, wenn man einen funktionierenden Staat sehen will.

Die Rahmenbedingungen dazu sollten aber so gestaltet werden, dass der Bürger diese Steuern auch zahlen kann, ohne sich in seiner Existenz gefärdet zu sehen, und ebenso auch zahlen will, weil er darin einen Nutzen für`s Gemeinwohl sehen kann.

Falls der zahlende Bürger bei grossen eigenen Problemen, keinen Sinn mehr darin erkennen kann, haupsächlich wegen der durch die Politik zu verantwortenden schlechten wirtschaftlichen Lage, immer noch mehr Steuern, Gebühren, und Sozialabgaben zu entrichten, ensteht doch dadurch erst der Zwang des einzelnen, Schwarzarbeit zu verrichten, und etwas zusätzlich verdienen zu müssen, um überhaupt noch mit seinem Geld haushalterisch umgehen zu können.

Wenn dieser Gemeinwohlssinn dem Bürger, und den klein, und mittelständischen Betrieben, durch die bestehende Wirtschaftskrise, wie es anscheinend bereits im grossen Umfang der Fall zu schein seit, abhanden gekommen ist. Da helfen auch keine Daumenschrauben mehr, und schon gar nicht die Androhung grosse Teile der eigenen Bevölkerung ins Gefängnis stecken zu wollen.

Bei einer bekanngegebenen gesammten Schwarzarbeit 2003, im Umfange von 370 Milliarden Euro, kann es sich ja wohl nicht nur um einige Einzelfälle handeln.

Dieses geplante neue Gesetz zeigt wieder einmal mehr, wie ernst die finanzielle Lage für den Staat Deutschland wirklich ist, dass er zu solchen Mitteln greifen muss.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.times.com.pk/business2.htm



Gold production to start at Saindak soon

TIMES.com.pk Commerce Desk

ISLAMABAD: The Saindak project in Balochistan will start production of copper, gold and silver by the end of the month, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources, Ch. Nouraiz Shakoor said on Friday.

Talking to APP here, he said production will begin with an initial output of 12,500 tonnes raw copper every day.

It has been estimated that project on coming into full production, will yield an average of 15,810 tonnes copper, 1.47 tonnes gold and 2.76 tonnes silver.

The Minister informed that China Metallurgical Construction Company (MCC) is engaged in development of the project.

He said all possible efforts are being made to ensure successful implementation of the project.

Modern machinery, including crushers, smelters and other plants have been installed in addition to a powerhouse of 50 MW at the site, he said and added, the power house will cater to the power needs of the project. Nouraiz Shakoor said a 33-kms railway line from Taftan to Saindak has also been laid.

He said the Chinese have invested over $ 25 million (Rs.1.5 billion).

Local people have been provided jobs under the project, besides health, education and drinking water and other facilities to the local population are also part of the project. The Minister said the project will have a far reaching impact on the socio-economic development of the area and the people. It is likely to create nearly 800 jobs for the locals in the beginning. Nouraiz Shakoor said this mega project would be another symbol of Sino- Pak deep-rooted friendship.

Responding to a question, he said initially nearly 250 Chinese workers and Technicians will participate in the production process, but this strength would be gradually reduced so as provide more opportunities to the locals. The MCC, he said, has acquired the project on lease for a period of ten years last in September last.

Pakistan and China signed a formal contract worth $350 million for the development of the project, he added.

Under the contract, the Chinese company will pay $ 500,000 monthly to Pakistan over next 10 years plus 50 percent of the total revenue from the sale of minerals. The Balochistan province will also receive $ 0.7 million per year as royalty. The Minister informed that a high-level Chinese delegation has been invited to attend the launching ceremony.

President General Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali are also likely to attend the inauguration.

The formal launching of Saindak copper project is likely to be held by end of the month.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cf…

Saturday July 12, 2003

The White Metal



" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"...Silver is different...and it always has been different. For more than 3,000 years it was used as money. However, silver has not been used as money since the 1960s. Even so, the white metal is inherently valued higher than it would be if it were simply an industrial metal, especially during inflationary periods! I believe the federal government will be able to reflate the economy, and the result will be higher inflation. The price of silver will react the same way today as it did 30 years ago..."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

John Myers

Calgary, Canada

Twelve years ago, I was at the National Committee for Monetary Reforms` annual hard-money convention, founded by the late and great precious metals forecaster Jim Blanchard. After giving my speech, I had an opportunity to listen to Dan Rosenthal lead a round-table discussion on silver.

Dan had made a fortune for his subscribers in the 1970s with his Gold & Silver newsletter and was telling this gathering that by the end of the decade, the federal government would be forced to reflate the economy. When that happened, he predicted the price of silver would skyrocket.

At the end of the round table, Dan fielded questions. I raised my hand, trying not to look like an overly eager third-grader, and said, "In the modern economy isn`t silver just another industrial metal, no different from tin or zinc?"

"If that were the case," said Dan, "you wouldn`t even be here."

He was right, of course. I mean, how many people follow the daily price of lead? Silver is different, though, and it always has been different. For more than 3,000 years it was used as money. However, silver has not been used as money since the 1960s. Even so, the white metal is inherently valued higher than it would be if it were simply an industrial metal, especially during inflationary periods!

Stuck in the Middle

Almost 40 years after silver was taken out of U.S. coinage, most North American investors buy gold before they buy silver when the dollar weakens and inflation is looming. This tendency partly explains why silver has not had the rally that gold has experienced in the past two years.

But there`s another reason. Most institutions see the white metal as being in a no man`s land, between a possible deflation and potential inflation.

Deflation would have a crushing impact on the industrial side of the silver price equation. And as we mentioned, inflation would light a fire under the price of silver on the investment side.

A Coin Toss

So, what side will win out? I think we can expect the dollar to continue to weaken. That will make imports more expensive, pushing up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which officially increases at about 3% annually. (I say officially because it is the federal government`s pronouncement of the rate of inflation.)

The CPI, calculated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is an inflation indicator. The CPI is an estimation of the price changes for a typical basket of goods and services. In other words, the prices of everyday things such as housing, food, education, clothing, etc., are compared from one month to the next, and the difference represents the CPI.

The index is calculated in relation to a base period set from 1982 to 1984 where it was set at 100. (The original CPI base dated from 1967, but the number got so huge that the federal government started all over again.) Even at 4% CPI, the value of a dollar is halved every 19 years. At 13%, a level it reached in the 1970s, the dollar`s value is cut in half every 5 1/2 years!

The graph below created by Robert Sahr, an associate professor at Oregon State University, shows that being a millionare today isn`t as tough as it used to be. In the early 1960s, it took a net worth of $200,000 to equal the value that $1 million has today. The graph also shows how inflation has become a permanent economic fixture. Notice how steeply the line has been rising since the early 1970s, or since President Nixon cut the gold/dollar tether in 1971.



If this number rises steeply, it means that the cost of living is rising, and therefore we have inflation. That is what happened in the 1970s, and the price of silver soared.

I believe the federal government will be able to reflate the economy, and the result will be higher inflation. The price of silver will react the same way today as it did 30 years ago.

White vs. Yellow

While many look at silver as a poor cousin to gold, it has at times significantly outperformed gold. It certainly did that during the 1970s. From 1971 to 1980 the price of silver skyrocketed, climbing from $1.30 per ounce to $50 per ounce. That was a gain of 3,746%! During the same period, the price of bullion rose from $35 per ounce to $800 an ounce -- a gain of 2,186%.

Since 1980, silver has been in a bear market with only the occasional spike, such as the breakout it had in early 1998, when it soared to $7.50 per ounce.

In 2001, silver established a 28-year bottom of $4.14 per ounce. In 2002, it moved its floor price to $4.50 and has moved up over the past few months, putting it in striking distance of the psychologically important $5-per-ounce benchmark. Once it clears $5, the next technical resistance is in the $5.60 to $5.90 range. If it breaches this barrier, the white metal will not face any technical resistance until $7.70.

That means that silver is very cheap at its current price. It also has very attractive fundamentals as an industrial metal.

Drawdown in Silver Supplies

The current supply and demand picture is extremely bullish. For 13 years annual demand has outpaced new supplies -- in some cases by huge margins of as much as 100 million ounces. In fact, the cumulative deficit rung up over the past 13 years totals 1.2 billion ounces, more than total annual world demand.

Any first-year economics major will tell you that supplies cannot fall behind demand indefinitely without a resulting increase in price. So why hasn`t silver moved up in light of the drawdown in aboveground supplies?

"The problem," says Sue Rutsen, a commodity broker at Fox Investments, "is nobody really knows the size of aboveground supply, which includes not only silver bullion held by bullion banks but also the silverware and bagged coins stuck in display cases and sock drawers all over the world."

The void between new mine production and world demand has been made up for the past two decades by all the aboveground silver supplies. But commodity analysts believe that aboveground silver supplies are close to exhaustion.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The highest estimate of remaining aboveground supplies I`ve seen is 500 million ounces," says Sue. "That means that given current rates of mine output, the world will literally run out of silver in five years."

The good news for silver investors is they do not have to worry about the U.S. government`s strategic stockpile. It has been severely drained. The consensus estimate is that it holds only 200 million ounces.



As aboveground supplies of silver run down, demand will have to be entirely met by new mine production. But that will be an impossible order for the mining industry to fill. You see, the rolling recession of the 1980s put most of the nation`s silver mines out of business. Where once there were dozens of North American silver mining companies, there are today fewer than five. Almost 80% of newly mined silver is a byproduct of copper mining operations. Old silver mines cannot be opened quickly regardless of how high the precious metal`s price climbs.

Therefore, it is safe to assume that supplies of newly mined silver will probably not increase dramatically in the near future.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Silver has come off its lows, and that tells me that the "smart money" is already buying some inflation insurance in the form of silver. Once inflation becomes more apparent, silver will probably behave as it always has -- explosively.

A breakout above $5 would attract a lot of investor interest. And like gold and platinum, silver is a thin market. It would take very little buying to drastically push up the price of silver.

Just how high could it go over the next 18 months? I don`t think $12 per ounce is out of the question.



John Myers - son of the great goldbug C.V. Myers - has been helping readers earn suprisingly lucrative returns in stocks largely unknown to Wall Street`s wunderkinder since his early 20s. Our man on the scene in Calgary, John has his fingers on the pulse of natural resource profits - including oil, gas, energy and gold.

John has recently put together a report on terror in the Middle East and its effect on the oil price. Had you read it, the recent attacks in Riyadh would have come as no surprise... nor the oil spike that followed. For more information, you can find John`s report here:

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/OST/NiceWealth/

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1058080333.php

Caledonia Mining Corp.

By: Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis



As Caledonia appears to be preparing for another substantial advance, it’s time to write about it again.

To gain an overall perspective, we will start by looking at a long-term chart going back ten years. On this chart several things are obvious; this stock has huge upside potential and is still trading at a rock bottom price, historically speaking. That said, we have to take into account the fact that the number of shares in issue in Caledonia has grown very significantly over this period, this means that, particularly in current trading conditions, it will need a lot more buying power to drive the price up than was the case in the past. However, in circumstances in which there is a “sellers strike”, as when it is glaringly obvious that gold stocks are going to go much higher, even to persons who are somewhat mentally challenged, then it doesn’t matter how many shares are in issue, it will go up, and go up fast. I view such market conditions in gold shares as inevitable and they will be glorious times for those who were wise enough to accumulate the good stocks beforehand. Also on this long-term chart we can see the price gradually rising up out of a shallow saucer base of over 5 years duration; such a long base can support a massive advance. We can also observe that volume has become very heavy over the past couple of years, particularly on advances, a most propitious indication.



We will move on now to look at the 2-year chart, which shows the bull market in Caledonia to date. Here we see two large impulse waves – advances in the direction of the primary trend - followed by reactions. The first wave features an obvious Elliott wave sequence, which I’ve shown, the second one doesn’t, so I haven’t bothered to show it. Notice also the very positive volume pattern, with heavy volume on advances, tailing off on declines.



On now to the 1-year chart, to attempt to determine what we can expect in the time ahead of us. Here we see the reaction from the peak attained last January tracing a parabolic curve. The breakout of a couple of weeks ago signalled that the low point is past and that we are on our way up again. I observed this breakout but did not write about it, because I figured that by the time anyone got to read it the stock would be overbought and about to react back again, a reaction being rendered virtually inevitable by the fact that the price had run ahead of the 50-day moving average and this average was still significantly below the 200-day moving average – it needs to cross it before we can really get moving – which it will shortly do. In addition the parabolic uptrend is only just turning up again. This parabolic bowl is a most useful technical indicator, for it gives us an idea of how the new uptrend should develop, both in terms of time and price, it can also be used to time purchases – the stock can be bought whenever it approaches this parabolic trendline, and, should a significant break of this parabola occur (>3% below it), the stock can be ditched. Traders can also sell the stock if it runs too far away from the bowl, buying it back when it returns to it. In a article about Vista Gold last week, I said I thought there was a 70% chance it would go up, with a 30% chance it would go down. I know some people thought I was fence sitting, but with this one I am more definite, I think there is a 90 % chance that Caledonia is going up, and the nice thing is, if it does break the parabolic uptrend you can simply ditch it – at the current price that means a terrific risk-reward ratio.

I believe we are seeing a lovely little buy spot right now, the price has reacted back significantly, to the now rising 50-day moving average, following the breakout several weeks ago, and we will likely soon see a golden cross – the 50-day moving average rising up through the 200, with the latter close to turning up.

Although Caledonia is not in “poll position”, rising out of a long base and already making, or close to making new highs, as are Golden Star and Miramar, it is clearly revving up and the tyres are warm, and it should prove to be a racy little number, a nice little earner, especially when, some way down the track, I admit, very few investors are inclined to sell gold stocks.

Caledonia Mining Corp., CALVF on OTC BB on (CAL.TO on TSE)

Closed at $0.19 on 11th July 2003

Disclaimer: The author of this article does not own any shares in Caledonia Mining Corp.

By Clive Maund, no responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Kaufbeuren, Germany, 12 th July 2003

-- Posted Sunday, July 13 2003

[Basic]

Hm 60000 Caledonia im Juni eingesammelt fürn paar Cent, für 10 $ verkaufen ? Hm nicht schlecht. ... aber bisher sind diese Leckerle immer von den Großen aufgekauft worden.

Gruß Basic

[ThaiGuru]

@Basic

CALF sollte eigentlich in keinem Gold Aktien Portefeuille fehlen. Die Chancen sind bei diesem Preisnivau bedeutend grösser, als die Risiken. Nicht nur wegen den Charts.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/bu…



Gold and Jewellery Group reports record sales

BY A STAFF REPORTER

13 July 2003

DUBAI - The Gold and Jewellery Group Dubai has reported record sales during the first two weeks of the Win the City of Gold retail promotion, with participating jewellery retailers citywide reporting a staggering 25 per cent increase in sales since the promotion began.

The Win the City of Gold promotion runs in parallel with the Dubai Summer Surprises festival. There are over 270 participating jewellery outlets citywide, and the promotion, supported by a comprehensive media and point of sale campaign, has already generated jewellery purchases of almost Dh100 million in Dubai since its beginning on the 19th June, with average purchases reported to be Dh250 or over.

"As the group representing Dubai`s jewellery trade, we are delighted with the success of the Win the City Of Gold promotion to date. The Win the City of Gold has created huge excitement among jewellery shoppers across Dubai. This excitement, coupled with the current favourable gold price, has lead to substantial increases in the levels of business among our members, and it is extremely encouraging to see such large numbers of regional and international travellers coming to Dubai to enjoy both the fantastic array of family events and the world class shopping in this, the City of Gold," said Tawhid Abdullah, Chairman of the Gold and Jewellery Group.

The citywide promotion offers one lucky winner each week, during the ten-week promotion, the chance to win a specially designed City of Gold coin. The first two winners of the specially designed 24 Karat gold one kilogram coin have already been announced as being of Spanish and Bangladeshi origin, with further winners to be announced over the coming eight weeks. Customers also have a chance to win 50 per cent of the value of their purchase back for amounts up to Dh2,500 as well as 1,000`s of Scratch and Win opportunities to win 10 grams, five grams, 2.7 grams and one gram coins.

Win the City Of Gold weekly draws are held in the Gold Souk every Friday until August 29th, 2003. For those requiring addition information on the promotion, a special toll-free number is available on 800-4417. The weekly winners names are also available on the Gold and Jewellery Group website, www.dubaicityofgold.com.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.business.scotsman.com/industry.cfm?id=760772003



Sunday, 13th July 2003

Thistle Mining launches another attack on rand

PERRY GOURLEY

WILLIE McLucas, head of the Edinburgh-based gold group Thistle Mining, has launched another attack on the South African government for its handling of the economy of the country where its largest operations are based.

McLucas’s broadside came after the company blamed the strength of the South African rand for pushing it into the red this year by forcing up production costs at its extensive mining operations there.

The chief executive of the Aim-quoted group, who has already voiced concerns about state plans to introduce royalties on gold produced, said the South African government was "determined to see the rand strengthen to incredible levels". He warned that a continuation of economic policies which supported a strengthening of the currency risked leaving the country uncompetitive. "South Africa has to compete in the real world," he said.

McLucas’s comments to an African newspaper came amid a chorus of disquiet from mining company executives over monetary policy which has helped the rand strengthen by around 40% since 2001. Although Thistle Mining, which is also listed in Canada, has protected itself to some degree against the stronger currency through hedging facilities, McLucas said that financiers outside the country were delaying investments because of the problem.

Last month Thistle reported first quarter results showing an operating loss of $1.1m compared to a profit of $424,000 in the same period last year, despite turnover more than doubling from $7.15m to $15.54m.

McLucas, 47, has previously criticised the South African government over proposals to introduce a 3% royalty on gold produced, warning it would "be a factor in future investment decisions". He called for the government to consider a long-term phasing in of the royalty.

As well as the President Steyn mining operations in Free State, Thistle also owns Philippine Gold which operates a gold deposit on the island of Masbete, south-east of Manila.

Earlier this year the company won the go-ahead from the government there to develop a mine, which could add $6m a year to the company’s profits.

Estimates of reserves from drilling areas on the island site - which could almost double Thistle’s total production - were also recently raised. Thistle has said it is considering floating Philippine Gold following completion of an exploratory drilling operation.

The Edinburgh-based firm is chaired by former Scottish Secretary Lord Lang of Monkton.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.sunspot.net/news/nationworld/bal-te.currency10jul…

U.S. prints Iraqi dinar despite its `face` value
Currency: With Iraqis shunning larger denominations, presses churn out small ones with Saddam Hussein`s portrait.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Douglas Birch
Sun Foreign Staff
Originally published July 10, 2003

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Every day, with the blessing of U.S. officials, Iraqi government printing presses produce 4 million portraits of Saddam Hussein.

Hussein is rendered in purple ink against a filigreed pink and blue background, in a pose reminiscent of George Washington. One difference is that he is depicted wearing a business suit and striped tie.

The portraits, printed by the mint, are on Iraq`s 250-dinar notes, probably the most widely circulated paper currency in Iraq.

The reasons the United States has been forced to approve mass-produced portraits of this country`s fugitive leader while offering a $25 million reward for his capture suggest how complicated the reconstruction of the country now seems.

L. Paul Bremer III, the American civil administrator in Iraq, announced Monday that authorities would print a new currency, in new denominations and without Hussein`s portrait, to begin circulating Oct. 15.

The change might help banish the nagging sense that Hussein is relaxing by a swimming pool, waiting for his chance to return. In the long run, it should end confusion for consumers, who cope with three generations of Iraqi currency in circulation at the same time.

It should also end a serious economic bottleneck, the refusal of many Iraqis to accept the largest bill now in circulation, the 10,000-dinar note. It has a face value of about $7.

After the fall of Baghdad, billions of dinars were stolen from banks, many of them in the form of the large-denomination notes. Perhaps because they feared that banks would stop honoring the large bills, Iraqis started shunning them. But they still accepted the only other denomination used in this part of Iraq, the 250-dinar note. It is worth about 16 cents.

Nobody writes checks in Iraq, and credit cards are useless. It is strictly a cash economy. U.S. authorities balked at the prospect of lugging huge piles of the 250-dinar notes around to pay salaries and buy goods and equipment. And by the Americans` logic, there was nothing intrinsically wrong with the large-denomination bills.

American authorities tried to encourage a return to 10,000-dinar notes by using them to pay the salaries and pensions of civil servants and by urging banks to issue them to customers withdrawing money.

But resistance to the notes has been stubborn. Merchants and moneychangers accept the bills only at a steep discount ranging from 60 percent to 80 percent of face value.

Ordinary Iraqis are bewildered and upset. To help them, U.S. authorities asked banks to change the 10,000-dinar notes at full value.

Maj. Lawrence Tubbs of the 354th Civil Affairs Brigade, based in Riverdale Park, Md., part of a team trying to resurrect Baghdad`s banking industry, said 4 million of the 250- dinar notes are being printed every day.

But the shortage remains so chronic that bank managers are supposed to change only five 10,000-dinar notes at a time per customer.

Customers say moneychangers and merchants are bribing bank employees to change large numbers of 10,000-dinar notes. The practice generates huge profits for businessmen who accepted the bills at a discount.

Ibrahim Sadak, a 57-year-old retired worker with the Iraqi social security system, said he and scores of others waited in line for eight hours to change a few 10,000-dinar bills, only to see one man walk away with bags of the smaller-denomination currency.

"A merchant came with 1 million in 10,000-dinar notes," he said. "They changed all of them for him."

Later, bank officials told everyone to go home; they had run out of the small notes.

Tubbs, who has surveyed scores of Baghdad banks as part of an effort to encourage them

to reopen, recently visited a branch mobbed by angry customers, each clutching a few 10,000-dinar bills.

The bank`s manager, he said, acknowledged changing 250 of the 10,000-dinar notes, about $1,700 worth, for one customer. The manager then told 80 people still in line to go home because he had run out of small bills.

"He couldn`t explain why he had given so much money to one man," Tubbs said.

The major said he had no proof of bribery but has heard the allegations. On his team`s recommendation, the bank manager was fired for violating the five-note limit.

U.S. authorities hope that by phasing out the old money, and the old 10,000-dinar note, they can introduce new, larger-denomination bills that people will trust and end discounting and profiteering.

It would also reduce lines at banks but wouldn`t necessarily eliminate them.

Naama Kadam stood yesterday outside a branch of the Rafidain Bank in the middle-class al-Zuwaiya neighborhood, clutching his green savings passbook.

Kadam, a 52-year-old taxi driver, had deposited his life savings, roughly $5,500, in Rafidain`s Branch No. 303 in the Ahrar neighborhood downtown.

On April 8, the day before Baghdad fell, that branch, like scores of others, was pillaged and burned. Thieves used sledgehammers and chisels to cut away the vault`s reinforced concrete. They made off with $113,000 in dinars, and gold and jewels from safe deposit boxes.

Kadam is one of tens of thousands of depositors having trouble getting their money back.

A few weeks ago, Kadam was told to go the Zuwaiya branch. He was told that Branch 303`s manager would be there, accepting deposits and approving withdrawals.

Kadam went every day for more than two weeks, but the branch manager never showed up. The rent is due, Kadam says, and he has only 5,000 dinars in his pocket.

Yesterday, Kadam finally found someone willing to help. Lt. Todd Marable, 23, of Broken Bow, Okla., an Army officer assigned to train security guards for the bank, agreed to ask the Zuwaiya manager about Kadam`s problem.

Kadam was directed back to the Ahrar branch. There he found Muhammed Kamel Shahin, 47, the assistant manager, supervising reconstruction of the branch. Shahin promised to give Kadam a document allowing him to withdraw money from the Iraqi Central Bank.

Shahin gave a tour, showing where the bank`s computers were stored in the vault for protection. The machines were blackened and partly melted, and most of the paper records had been burned. Fortunately, like most banks, the Ahrar branch had backup computer discs that survived.

"People in the street are talking that the Americans are the problem," said Kadam. "That`s not true. It is the Iraqis who are the problem."


Copyright © 2003, The Baltimore Sun

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?action=press_relea…



2003 United States Mint Silver Proof Set™ Available July 28th

Washington – The United States Mint announced today that it will begin selling the 2003 United States Mint Silver Proof SetÔ on July 28, 2003, at noon (E.S.T.).

The 2003 United States Mint Silver Proof Set, available for $31.95, features versions of the five 2003-dated 50 State Quarters® coins as well as the Roosevelt dime and Kennedy half- dollar, all minted in lustrous 90 percent silver, historically known as “coin silver.” The set also includes proof versions of the other 2003-dated circulating coins – the Lincoln cent, the Jefferson 5-cent piece and the Golden Dollar – for a total of ten coins in all.

Each of these beautiful silver proof coins has a distinctive cameo appearance created by the contrast of a finely detailed frosted foreground against a shimmering mirror-like background. Produced at the San Francisco Mint facility, the coins bear the “S” mint mark. The sealed cases containing the coins are inserted into a specially printed sleeve and are accompanied by a Certificate of Authenticity.

Because we expect demand for the 2003 United States Mint Silver Proof Sets to be high, customers are encouraged to place orders early. The United States Mint reserves the right to limit quantities and may discontinue accepting orders at any time.

Customers can purchase the 2003 United States Mint Silver Proof Set online through the United States Mint’s secure website at http://www.usmint.gov, or by calling toll-free 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468) 8:00 a.m. to midnight (Eastern Time), seven days a week. Hearing- and speech-impaired customers may order by calling 1-888-321-MINT (6468) 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Eastern Time), Monday through Friday.

Contact: Press inquiries: Michael White [phone]
Customer Service information: (800) USA MINT (872-6468)

[ThaiGuru]

http://64.29.208.119/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Broad money supply surged an eye-opening $63.1 billion (to $8.83 Trillion), the strongest weekly gain since the Fed’s post 9/11 liquidity operations. M3 has now expanded $255.4 billion over the past 11 weeks, a 14% annualized growth rate, with y-o-y growth at 7.9%. M3 is up $3.6 Trillion, or 70%, in six years. For the week, Demand and Checkable Deposits gained $12.0 billion. Savings deposits rose $8.4 billion (up $63.8 billion in five weeks).

[ThaiGuru]

http://64.29.208.119/creditbubblebulletin.asp

The May Trade Deficit, up 19% y-o-y to $41.8 billion, remained at a near record level. Year-over-year Exports were up 1% to $57.6 billion, while Imports increased 7% to $104.4 billion. Imports were 81% greater than Exports during May, compared to 72% one year ago. Year-to-date by largest trading partner, Imports from Canada were up 7.3%, Mexico 3.3%, China 27.9%, Japan 0.0%, and Germany 14.1%. Others of note include Saudi Arabia up 71.1%, Brazil 22.8%, India 15.1%, and Russia 56.8%.
.

[ThaiGuru]

Das Vermächtnis des Mister Print!

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Was stand doch schon wieder in einem von User YoyoStock heute in seinem Thread "Zum Abschied noch ein paar Dollar gefällig" geposteten Beitrag?

Thread: Kein Titel für Thread 227529100027192964992984119679082965

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Inzwischen beginnt sich sogar im Frankfurter Bankenviertel die Erkenntnis durchzusetzen, daß die FED keine Staatsbank mit Staatsgarantie, sondern eine von Rothschild beherrschte Privatbank ist, daß also die von ihr ausgegebenen Geldscheine keine Sicherheit haben und um so weniger wert werden, je hemmungsloser die private Finanzclique die Dollarmenge erhöht - in den letzten zwei Jahren um mehr als 20 Prozent jährlich."

[silverpwd]

Ach Thai ... nee,nee,nee

[sebastianus]

#6396 @ Thai Guru

Es kann nur von Vorteil sein, wenn wir und gegenseitig auf Unstimmigkeiten aufmerksam machen !

Von Jänner 1999 bis soben ist die Geldmenge M3 in den USA um insgesamt etwa 50 % gestiegen. Es kann daher nicht jährlich 20 % sein, wie im Ostpreussenblatt geschrieben wird.

Nachfolgend eine Kopie meines posting #17 im thread von Yoyostock, der ebenfalls mittels einer Anmerkung von PHI teilweise unrichtig informiert ist.
--------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ostpreussenblatt.de
dann Archiv anclicken - Suchbegriffe Dollar + Gold

Orginaltext : "Bisher haben die USA das Abstürzen des DOLLAR durch die Rothschild-FED und durch ihre "schwarze Kasse des Treasury Departement", den ESF (Exchange Stabilisation Found) zu halten versucht. Dies geht nicht mehr, weil auch der GOLDmarkt mit ständig größeren Mitteln abgestützt werden muß und die USA zudem mit Milliardenbeträgen die politische Gefolgschaft anderer Länder (Pakistan, Türkei, Polen, Rußland) erkaufen mußten. Die Kurspflege des DOLLAR ist an ihre Grenzen gekommen. Der DOLLAR ist nicht mehr zu halten."

#1 YoyoStock wrote : weil auch der Goldmarkt mit ständig größeren Mitteln abgestützt werden muß (Anm.PHI: Der Goldpreis wird also künstlich durch Ankäufe der FED hoch gehalten und dies geht nur, so lange die FED noch Geld dafür hat)

Frage an YoyoStock : Von wem wurde die PHI-Anmerkung in den Text eingefügt ? Diese Anmerkung ist m.E. eine etwas übertriebene und zum teil widersprüchliche Interpretation im Zusammenhang mit dem Gesamtartikel.

Grüsse - Seabstianus

[ThaiGuru]

@sebastianus

Du hast völlig Recht damit, dass man Unstimmigkeiten bei Veröffentlichungen aufzeigen sollte.

Habe das ja auch im Thred vom YoyoStock, zur falschen Aussage, dass der Goldpreis von der FED gestützt würde, gemacht.

Du selbst wie es scheint hast sogar noch etwas im Archiv recherchiert. Soweit so gut. Nur soltest Du Dich wenn Du veröffentlichte Zahlen findest, die nicht stimmen können, wie Du zu Recht schreibst, endlich einmal dazu entschliessen können auch Quellen dazu zu nennen, den dazugehörenden Link mitliefern, und nicht nur etwas in Abrede zu stellen, was Du leider des öfftern zu tun pflegst, damit man Deine korrigierten, oder bemängelten Zahlen, oder Angaben auch sofort auf ihre Verlässlichkeit überprüfen kann.

Wie Du auch in meinem heutigen Posting #6389 unschwer nachlesen kannst, stimmen die im Artikel des Ostpreussenblattes genannten Zahlen wirklich nicht.

Ich wundere mich nur warum Du das "YoyoStock" Posting aus einem anderen Thread, in diesem Thread glaubst korrigieren zu müssen? Hier wurde dieser Ostpreussenblatt Artikel mit den falschen Zahlen zur M3 Geldmenge, und der Falschaussage, dass die FED den Gold Preis stütze doch gar nicht gepostet.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[silverpwd]

@Thai

Die einzige grosse Währung die haussieren wird in den nächsten Jahren ist der Yen.

[sebastianus]

zu #6399 ThaiGuru (+6396+6398)

Bitte langsam. Kein Mensch ist fehlerfrei, weder Du noch ich. Du beziehst Dich auf mein posting #6398, lass mich dazu antworten :

1. In #6396 schreibst DU als ThaiGuru selbst - und niemand anderer- wortwörtlich :
"je hemmungsloser die private Finanzclique die Dollarmenge erhöht - in den letzten zwei Jahren um mehr als 20 Prozent jährlich."

2. Für diese obige DEINE Aussage beruft Du Dich auf ein Posting von YoyoStock und DU setzte den Link, damit andere dies auch lesen können (oder sollen).

Nun, ich habe DEIN posting #6396 gelesen und den link angeclickt. Und weil dieses YoyoStock-posting den Inhalt Deines postings darstellt, habe ich auf wesentliche Teile dieser Information geantwortet:

Nämlich dass ich 20 % jährlich in den letzten zwei Jahren nicht glaube und als
Begründung für meine Zweifel habe ich die M3 genannt.
So dass jedermann verstehen kann, WARUM ich diese Zahlen anzweifle. Ich sehe darin nichts Falsches.

Ich habe nie behauptet, dass in Deinem posting oder im posting des YoyoStock von M3 die Rede war.

Weiters habe ich richtiggestellt, dass in dem von YoyoStock geposteten Bericht eine Anmerkung von PHI eingefügt ist, die im Orginalbereicht des Ostpreussenblattes nicht aufscheint
und habe den Link zum Ostpreussenblatt beigefügt. Auch darin sehe ich nichts Falsches.

Aber wenn DU meinst, Du kannst unrichtige Aussagen des YoyoStock-postings hier im #6396 inklusie Link anführen und später dann in #6399 behaupten :
"Hier wurde dieser Ostpreussenblatt Artikel mit den falschen Zahlen zur M3 Geldmenge, und der Falschaussage, dass die FED den Gold Preis stütze doch gar nicht gepostet"- so ist dies für mich befremdend, aber soll mir auch recht sein.

Obrigens : jede Zentralbank listet die die M3 Geldmengen monatlich und man kann die EZB-, die BuBa- oder die FED
-Web aufsuchen. Mir ist die Bundesbank Statistik zu umfangreich und ich gehe meistens aus Gewohnheit zu
http://research.stlouisfed.org wegen des schnellen Zugriffes.

Gruss -Sebastianus

[ThaiGuru]

@sebastianus

Du wirst langsam langweilig!

Wenn Du schon alles immer so korrekt siehst wie Du vorgibst, arbeite doch mal an Dir selber bevor Du jedes mal gleich einen Doktor Titel in diesem Thread abverdienen willst.

Die tatsächlichen Zahlen wurden von mir gepostet in Posting #8386

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Broad money supply surged an eye-opening $63.1 billion (to $8.83 Trillion), the strongest weekly gain since the Fed’s post 9/11 liquidity operations. M3 has now expanded $255.4 billion over the past 11 weeks, a 14% annualized growth rate, with y-o-y growth at 7.9%. M3 is up $3.6 Trillion, or 70%, in six years. For the week, Demand and Checkable Deposits gained $12.0 billion. Savings deposits rose $8.4 billion (up $63.8 billion in five weeks)."

Das Du glaubst, dass eine als "Zitat" gekennzeichnete Aussage aus einem Fremdposting, mit einer darin enthaltenen zu hohen Prozentangabe zur M3 Geldmengen Ausweitung, auf das ich hier in diesem Thread verlinkt habe, eine eigene falsche Veröffentlichung darstellt, mag für Dich so aussehen, entspricht aber nicht den Tatsachen.

Selbst geschrieben wie Du glaubst behaupten zu müssen habe ich gar nichts!

Im Gegensatz zu Dir selbst, der sehr viele Zahlen und Angaben, öffters auch falsche, zu machen pflegt, ohne die zugrunde liegenden Quellen bekanntzugeben, mit der billigen Begründung, Du könntest doch Deine eigenen Geschäftsgeheimnisse nicht bekannt geben, ein etwas starker Tubak.

Die M3 Geldmenge ist alleine in der letzten Woche um den seit dem 9/11 grössten prozentualen Anstieg von atemberaubenden 63.1 (US)Billionen gewachsen. In den vergangenen 11 Wochen stieg die M3 Geldmenge um 255.4 (US) Billionen an. Das ergibt eine jährliche steigerungsrate von 7.9% gegenüber dem letzten Jahr. In den vergangenen 6 Jahren, ist die M3 Geldmenge um die Riesen-Summe von 3.6 (US) Trillionen Dollar, oder um beängstigende 70% angestiegen!

Das stand bereits in diesem Thread, Du solltest nur genau lesen.

http://64.29.208.119/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Falls Du mit Deiner Korrektur Manie bezwecken wolltest diese beängstigende Tatsache zur US Dollar Geldmengen Ausweitung herunter zu spielen, dann sag es doch direkt, und veranstalte hier nicht so ein Theater, wegen einer falschen Prozentangabe in einer unbedeutenden Zeitung wie dem Ostpreussenblatt.

Du bist im falschen Thread Mann!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256…



Gold Fields has PGM deadline

By: Stewart Bailey

Posted: 2003/07/13 Sun 16:30 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

JOHANNESBURG – Gold Fields, South Africa’s second largest gold producer, has 30 days to decide whether it will increase its palladium mining ambitions buy acquiring the 49 percent stake in the Arctic Platinum Partnership (APP) it does not already own.

Gold Fields’ partner on the Finnish palladium prospect, metal and mining group Outokumpu, said on Friday (11 July) it would sell its 49 percent stake in APP to Vancouver-based junior miner and explorer South Atlantic Ventures, for $31 million in cash and shares. The offer values the joint venture at a shade over $62 million, which compares well with the $13 million Gold Fields spent in exploration funding to earn its 51 percent stake in the project.

Willie Jacobsz, a spokesman for Gold Fields, said Gold Fields had a pre-emptive right to buy the Outokumpu stake, but said no decision had been made on whether to increase its holding or not. “We’re looking at it, it’s a possibility. We have 30 days to decide,” said Jacobsz.

Gold Fields has completed the feasibility study on the project, which outlined a resource of 14.4 million ounces of platinum, palladium and gold across three prospects at Konttijarvi, Ahmavaara and Ahmavaara East. Palladium is by far the dominant metal at a grade of 1.44 g/t, almost four times more prevalent than platinum at 0.4 g/t and gold at only 0.1g/t. There is also copper mineralization at 0.18 percent and nickel at 0.08 percent.

It is the reliance on palladium, which has caused the delay in the development of the project. Jacobsz says the feasibility work and all metallurgical studies have been completed but concerns over the state of the palladium market have caused Gold Fields to put a development decision on hold. “With the palladium market so soft, we felt it was not the right time to make a decision,” he said.

The palladium market, however, looks to be in a state of almost terminal over-supply. Unquantified Russian stockpiles of the metal and a long period of erratic and unreliable supply in the nineties – which caused damaging price spikes – have dampened demand for palladium. The result is a metal languishing at $172/oz, compared to its peak of more than $1000/oz in 2000. Few commentators expect the price to rebound anytime soon.

Nevertheless, one senior Johannesburg gold analyst said there remained “a good chance” Gold Fields would exercise its pre-emptive right. “It’s not a lot of money in their lives and they’ve spent a lot of time and effort persuading us that this is core for them, so I certainly wouldn’t rule it out,” he said. The analyst added that Gold Fields could deploy the proceeds of the sale of certain of the group
’s non-core portfolio investments – including Eldorado Gold and Glamis Gold – to fund the purchase.

If Gold Fields decides to follow its rights, the implications for South Atlantic could be profound if Friday’s trading action is anything to go by. On Friday, when news of the Arctic deal broke, the stock climbed 25 percent, or C$0.60 in heavy volume. The group already has exploration properties and operational joint ventures in Scandinavia, as well as a 38 percent stake in a Swedish listed mining house, North Atlantic Ventures.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/ProspectorAssetManagement/105816247…

Precious Metals Update for Markets of July 14th

By: Leonard Kaplan, Prospector Asset Management

Sherman Ave. #504 Evanston, IL 60201 Fax: [phone]

Ph: [phone] E-mail: [e-mail]

July 13, 2003

For markets of July 14th

Closes - July 7th

INDICATIVE LEASE RATES

Based on 30 day maturities

APR Gold $345.10 Gold .00/.50%
MAR SILVER $4.805 SILVER .00/.50%
APR PLAT $675.20 PLAT 5.00/12.00%

MARKET COMMENTARY


GENERAL COMMENTS:

The precious metals markets were widely mixed last week, with the gold price still firmly glued to the movements of the USD, especially the Euro. As the Euro fell 1.7 cents during the week (about 1.5%), the gold price fell by $6.20, or about 1.8% of its value. There was constant talk of the liquidation of long positions by the large and small speculators, and buying by the trade or the commercials, although such actions are not portrayed on the most recent, and very puzzling, Commitment of Traders reports. Anecdotally, gold physical demand for gold is becoming more evident at these price levels, as a good monsoon in India, and recent new highs for the Indian Rupee are encouraging purchases, even though it is not "high season" for such activities. Gold prices have indeed held, at least so far, the 200-Day Moving Average, which has historically been a superb spot to enter the market on the long side.

Perhaps the greatest negative influence on the Euro, and on the gold market, has been the recurring belief that the USA economy is now "on the mend", and as the equities markets strengthened on such viewpoints, generally all hedges against the USD, or "safe haven" investments were sold, and the funds redeployed. While hard evidence of an economic recovery has yet to emerge from the recent statistics, investors and speculators became enthralled with the "rationale de jour", and acted rapidly.

Although it is possible that gold moves slightly lower, my sense is that we are quite close to the lows for this move. Good physical demand, combined with some technical chart-based indicators, is screaming that gold is a most reasonable buy at these levels. But, absent any fundamental news, the gold market will still be strongly influenced by the foreign exchange markets more than any other external factor.

With the perception that the USA economy may be rebounding, and with short speculators ardently buying back their previously sold positions, silver prices were up over 11 cents for the week, reaching the $4.90 price level basis the September contract on Thursday morning, only to fall back by about 10 cents from the highs by the close of trading on Friday. In last weeks commentary, we were explicit about exiting this market and gave several strategies, both by selling futures beginning at $4.78 and scaling out until $4.88, and by selling shortterm near the money calls. Our forecast was right on the money, as prices reached the $4.90 level. For those who sold short-term near the money calls, recommendations will follow to liquidate the underlying futures. It appears that the upside of this market is now severely limited, as we expected. The Commitment of Traders reports will shed more light on our thinking.

As the ebullient notion of economic recovery was rumbled through the markets, the platinum market was benefited, as prices rose by $9 per ounce. Trading was rather mild for this rather volatile metal, but strong and persistent buying was seen by both speculative forces and physical users in the Far East. Price levels seem rather lofty, and rather expensive, at present, but much depends on the mood of the markets, as to whether or not the economy will, or will not, meet the optimistic expectations and psychology of the markets. Palladium, always a strange beast, was down $12.25 for the week, although it did hold technical support levels in the $170 range. Palladium seems bound, tied, and firmly leashed to its trading range.

One of the strangest phenomenon of the gold market over the past few years is the persistent low lease rate. The "interest rate" on gold appears unshakably low, whether the market rallies wildly or falls precipitously. Now, lease rates are just about zero, with one-month lease rates at .07%, rising a bit through the curve to .31% for one year, as per the LBMA website as of Friday. Think about that a bit, one can borrow gold for a year, on the interbank market, for about 1/3 of 1% annualized rate! While it does boggle the imagination, what is unusual is that these low rates have remained rather constant no matter what price the underlying metal achieves. In years past, the lease rate for gold was a fabulous leading indicator for what laid ahead for the gold price, and now, it seems useless.

The 5 year forward rate for gold is now only $30 per ounce, making forward selling most unattractive for the gold producers. With gold at $355 or so, gold producers should be most hesitant about forward selling at just $385, as this price level could easily be seen should we retrace to the old highs seen just several months ago. With forward selling now highly disadvantageous, and with "de-hedging" still responsible for the lion’s share of buying in this market, I would believe that the gold price will be very well supported in the $340’s and I still envision a year-end close between $380 and $420 per ounce.

On to the Commitment of Traders reports, as of July 8th, both futures and options:

Gold:

Long Speculative
54403
-3038

Short Speculative
10241
+2023

Long Commercial
113586
+3789

Short Commercial
188548
-892

Small Spec Longs
50025
-1164

Small Spec Shorts
19224
-1544

During the relevant week, gold was down $7.30 and open interest declined by a paltry 265 contracts as per the CFTC. While the speculative crowd were indeed sellers, and the commercials buyers, I would have thought that the changes would have been a lot more significant. Talk on the floor, and in the market, was that the specs sold far larger quantities of gold contracts, forcing the price down sharply. But, the statistics above oppose that view. As such, with the long specs still 2.8 times the short specs, it would lead one to believe that the market remains vulnerable on the downside.

Something seems wrong with the statistics, as it hard to envision that the net sales by the speculators of about 4,500 contracts would have been enough to force prices down by over $7 per ounce. Yes, perhaps it is just an outsized move that could only happen during summer, when most players are more concerned with working on their suntans rather than working the market.

Regardless, I will choose to denigrate the validity of this data, and will remain confident that the $340 to $342 price level in gold will hold, and that we will grind higher in price. Recommendations will follow.

Silver:

Long Speculative
32399
+5242
Short Speculative
10333
-7565
Long Commercial
21160
-3075

Short Commercial
66298
+10281 Small Spec Longs
na
na Small Spec Shorts
na
na

During the reporting week, silver rose by 16 cents per ounce, open interest rose by a large 4,328 contracts, as large speculative forces were MAJOR buyers. Meanwhile, the commercials were MAJOR sellers. We have seen this, since time and time immemorial, where the specs were buyers at the highs and sellers at the lows. Such information makes me believe that this market is just about "cooked", and the chances for a protracted rally diminish each and every day. The only piece missing, that would make me totally confident, is that open interest still has not been declining, as it should at market tops. So, all in all, lets say that the silver rally may still have a bit of time left, but not much. If we can’t surpass technical resistance levels in the $4.90 to $5.05 price range in the next week or so, odds are that we fall rather sharply in price. Recommendations will follow.

Posted Monday, July 14 2003

[silverpwd]

Für mich sieht es danach aus, als ob Gold seit Tagen künstlich hochgehalten wird.
Sollte die 340 fallen, gibts dann mächtig Aua für die Goldbullen.

[Wavetrader]

Gold in Euro sieht jeden Tag bullisher aus, da die 300-Marke nachhaltig verteidigt wird! Wenn GD-100 geknackt werden, könnte es kurzfristig ähnlich wie beim Silberpreis laufen.

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

Für mich sieht es gerade so aus, als wärst Du und Deine anti Gold Gesinnunungsgenossen wie so viel schon gehabt, die Verlierer, und Gold gewinnt einmal mehr!

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030714/sfm046a_1.html

Press Release Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur Reports Further $34 Million Reduction in Debt

Monday July 14, 9:02 am ET

- 66% Reduction in Total Indebtedness Since End of 1st Quarter -

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho, July 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE - News), the world`s largest primary silver producer, announced today that it has reduced the Company`s outstanding convertible indebtedness by an additional $34 million. That amount represents a 66% reduction in Company-wide debt since the end of the first quarter of 2003. After these recent debt reductions, the Company`s convertible indebtedness due in December 2003 and 2004 totals $15.2 million. Coeur`s cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2003 was $19.8 million.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Since the beginning of 1998, Coeur`s total debenture indebtedness has been reduced from $288.6 million to the current $28.9 million.

"Coeur is pleased to announce additional meaningful reductions in the Company`s remaining indebtedness, further strengthening our balance sheet and essentially completing the major restructuring begun five years ago,"

said Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "The timing of this debt reduction is also beneficial to current shareholders since Coeur is issuing less shares now than if the convertible notes had been held to full maturity.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Meanwhile, our cash position remains strong, with nearly $20 million of cash and equivalents as of the end of June. This allows us to aggressively pursue our growth strategy, led by Coeur`s new generation of high grade/low cost mines in South America, which have combined to fuel our production growth, lower cash costs, and significantly improve Coeur`s cash-flow profile,"
Mr. Wheeler added.

The transactions involved the conversion of 27.5 million shares of common stock for $32.6 million principal amount of the Company`s 9% Senior Subordinated Notes due February 2007. The exchange of the 9% Senior Subordinated Notes resulted in a 1.1 million share reduction in the number of shares that would have been issued had the Notes been outstanding until maturity. In addition, the Company exchanged .4 million shares of common stock for $0.5 million principal amount of 6.375% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due January 2004, and the exchange of .6 million shares of common stock for $0.8 million principal amount of 7.25% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due October 2005 in privately negotiated transactions.


After taking these exchanges and other recent conversions into account, Coeur now has approximately 178.6 million shares outstanding. Additional information will be presented in a Current Report on Form 8-K to be filed by Coeur with the SEC.


Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation is the world`s largest primary silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Contact: Tony Ebersole
208-665-0335

[silverpwd]

Biste jetzt am ausrasten, weil Gold nen Prozent gewinnt ?
Schonmal auf die Indizes geschaut ?
Noch meine Postings von April in Erinnerung ?
Verlierer ?

[Cashlover]

#6407

Für mich sieht es danach aus, als ob Gold seit Tagen künstlich hochgehalten wird.


Woran sieht man denn sowas?

Oder sollte da eher der Wunsch, Vater des Gedankens sein?
mfg

[ThaiGuru]

Schafft BEMA Gold das Jahreshoch noch heute, oder erst morgen?

BEMA GOLD (AMEX:BGO)

Last Trade

1:09pm · 1.47 Change

+0.09 (+6.52%)

Prev Cls
1.38
Open
1.39
Volume
1,821,100
Day`s Range
1.39 - 1.46
52-wk Range
0.89 - 1.51

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

Ach nein!

So grausam kannst doch nicht mal Du sein, von mir zu verlangen, den ganzen Stuss den Du so zum Gold in den letzten Monaten geschrieben hast, in Erinnerung zu behalten.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[silverpwd]

@Cashlover

Mir ist das finanziell egal, ob Gold nun steigt oder fällt.
Das was Gold in den letzten 2 Wochen gemacht hat sah ungesund aus. Irgendwie künstlich und kontrolliert.

[silverpwd]

@Thai

Meine Perf. dieses Jahr > +50%, ganz ohne Gold.

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Meine Perf. dieses Jahr > +50%, ganz ohne Gold"

Wenn`s denn so ist, schön für Dich!

Doch wenn Du "ganz ohne Gold" wie Du sagst, solche "Haarsträubenden" Gewinne machst, frage ich mich ernsthaft wiso Du Dich ständig im Gold Board rumtreibst, und nicht müde wirst bei jeder Gelegenheit Gold madig zu reden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Mit den richtigen thailändischen Titeln, konnte man dieses Jahr, im Durchschnitt sogar einige hundert Prozente machen!

Thread: Kein Titel für Thread 22511662227192916500271929610650044225653621071

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/07/15/134005.html

Die Mannheimer Versicherung ist erst der Anfang
Marktplatz

von Jan Dams

Die Zeiten in der deutschen Lebensversicherungsbranche haben sich grundlegend geändert. Kein Fall zeigt das besser als die Pleite der Mannheimer Versicherung. Deren Kunden landen nun bei der Auffanggesellschaft Protektor, nachdem die Versicherungswirtschaft sich nicht auf eine gemeinsame Kapitalerhöhung für den schwer angeschlagenen Konkurrenten einigen konnte.

Noch vor einem Jahr wäre das wohl anders gewesen. Damals hätte ein Konsortium der Großen sicher das nötige Geld aufgebracht, um die Mannheimer am Leben zu erhalten. Denn die Branche, die seit Ende des Zweiten Weltkrieges keine Pleite erlebt hatte, fürchtete um ihren Ruf. Durch Protector hat sich der Druck, selbst als Retter aufzutreten, stark verringert.

Zudem fehlt so manchem großen Lebensversicherer nun selbst das Kapital für Rettungsaktionen. Längst ist die Einsicht gereift, dass es zu gefährlich ist, schlechte Wettbewerber auch noch mit dem Kapital der eigenen Kunden und Aktionäre am Leben zu erhalten.

Vor allem aber können sich die Marktführer wie die Allianz, die Axa oder Hamburg-Mannheimer sicher sein, als Gewinner aus der jetzigen Konsolidierung hervorzugehen. Denn Pleiten wie die der Mannheimer Versicherung werden die Kunden geradezu in die Arme der kapitalstärkeren Unternehmen. Die alte Praxis der kleineren Konkurrenten, über unrealistisch hohe Gewinnversprechen neue Kunden zu gewinnen, zieht nicht mehr.

Die Versicherer mit einem schlechten Image stecken damit in der Falle. Die Flucht zur Qualität vermasselt ihnen das Neugeschäft, während sie mit den stillen Lasten in den Bilanzen zu kämpfen haben. Das lässt es wahrscheinlich werden, dass nach der Mannheimer noch einige andere Versicherungen in ähnliche Schwierigkeiten geraten.


Artikel erschienen am 15. Jul 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24825…

Grade relief for Kingsgate

By: Peter Gonnella

Posted: 2003/07/14 Mon 05:00 EDT | © Mineweb 1997-2003

PERTH -- Top five Aussie-listed gold group Kingsgate Consolidated [ASX:KCN] has gone some way to assuaging market concerns over grade at its Chatree gold mine in Thailand.

The Sydney-based company today (Monday) unveiled it has encountered a high-grade extension to the known “H’’ orebody and has earmarked it for rapid definition and exploitation. The H orebody lies within the existing Tawan pit, and Kingsgate’s managing director Steve Reid told Mineweb the extension could underpin a significant boost to earnings for the current financial year (FY), as well as an improvement in forecast gold output, mill head grade and costs.

As part of a strategic review of its entire exploration program, Kingsgate decided to address the issue of grade decline at the 20-month-old Chatree multi-pit operation by refocusing the component of its overall exploration effort dedicated to near-mine targets to those targets that have the potential to deliver a near-term contribution to profitability. “The review has yielded early success with positive results returned from a previously untested area,” Reid said.

Reid told Mineweb Kingsgate is hoping to bring the H extension on stream this year. “Geological and mine planning activities are currently underway with a view to bringing forward the production of this near-surface, readily accessible material into the first half of 2003/04,” he said. This deposit contains relatively high-grade ore, “it is soft because it is near the surface and it has a low strip ratio, so we will be trying to process it as soon as possible”.

Some of the more impressive assays recorded from the most recent round of drilling included 14m grading 8.52g/t gold, 20m at 5.95g/t, 29m at 4.50g/t and 21m at 3.52g/t. Drilling of the H extension find is continuing, Kingsgate reported, in conjunction with other near-mine prospects.

In late May Kingsgate announced new reserves of 400,000oz, all from the Prospect “A” deposit, which saw global Chatree reserves upgraded to over 1 million ounces, but the market wasn’t satiated because of the lower than expected A grade (of 1.7g/t).

In addition, the company advised that an expanded ore throughput rate beginning early next year wouldn’t fully compensate for the decreased grade. Consequently, Kingsgate revised its production forecast downwards for this FY (that is, pre-H extension discovery) down to 125,000oz at an average cash cost of US$145 per oz, well above the US$80/oz level Chatree has achieved to date, which also bothered analysts (see related article in side bar).

Meantime, Kingsgate has again restructured its gold hedging book, reducing committed ounces by 14 percent to 356,400oz with strike prices on committed ounces now averaging about US$330-$335/oz.

Investors were encouraged by the improved grade outlook and Kingsgate stock was well supported as a result. It jumped 5 percent by the end of the day, closing at A$3.15.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 14, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $347.40 an ounce, up $2.90 an ounce from Friday’s close. Gold gained as the U.S. dollar came off its highs and reports of strong physical demand in spite of a continuing equities rally. "Buying came in from people who went home short over the weekend as the market came in a touch higher," one COMEX floor broker said. "The short-covering started to run into a break of the 100-day-, 14-day moving averages at the $347.10/30 area." Trading sources said gold also found support from the euro, which reversed losses against the dollar, and from the latest weekly traders commitments that showed funds had some room to increased their long exposure in futures, The greenback was losing its footing on comments by International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff that the dollar`s fall was needed to correct the U.S. current account deficit.

"The underlying strength in gold has been the U.S. dollar weakness," John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada Inc. said. The United States continues to face trade and budget deficits, and the low interest rates there remove another positive factor for the greenback, he said. "All of this does not bode well for the U.S. dollar. My expectation is for the next move in gold to be back to $400 an ounce." In the long run, Mr. Ing thinks gold could exceed his $510 an ounce price target given serious weakness in the U.S. dollar, falling mine production, producer dehedging and more investment demand for gold.

Greenspan will probably say that ``there isn`t very much good evidence the economy is rebounding,`` while expressing optimism about the growth outlook, said Lara Rhame, a currency analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York and formerly an analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. ``The dollar rally is showing signs of fatigue.`` The euro will probably rally to average $1.15 in the fourth quarter, Brown Brothers projects. ``Longer-term problems still dog the U.S. currency,`` said David Mozina, New York-based head of foreign-exchange strategy for the 10 major industrialized nations at Bank of America, the third-biggest U.S. bank by assets. The euro is ``a screaming buy`` at these levels, he said.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $347.50 an ounce, up from $344.50 an ounce at the morning fixing. "We have seen a continued physical demand in recent weeks. Although a stronger dollar normally weakens gold, it`s not the case now. We saw buying emerging from New York," a London-based trader said. Volume has been sluggish, however, with further trading activity slowdown anticipated during the summer months. A series of reductions in speculators` net long positions on Comex gold also provides good support for bullion, as pressure from long liquidation has subsided, traders said. "Further dollar/equity strength is likely to trigger further speculator selling over the coming sessions, leading to a test of the $340 support," said James Moore of the BullionDesk.com in a daily report. "The primary characteristics of the gold market remain much as before, with physical buying interest (and some technical interest around the 200-day moving average at fractionally below $341/ounce) helping to give the market a floor, while currencies drive the intra-day moves," said Rhona O`Connell of the World Gold Council in a daily report. "The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, as while a number of dealers are looking for a test of support, the resilience of the $342/ounce level last week is also giving some confidence," she added.

The dollar rose to two-month highs against the euro and the Swiss franc on Monday as investors anticipated upbeat U.S. corporate earnings this week to buoy Wall Street further. But analysts said the market was still likely to remain relatively cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan`s congressional testimony on Tuesday. Greenspan testifies before the House of Representatives` Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and appears before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. "Markets will be following stocks and that should be a dollar positive. There`s a bit more optimism about the second quarter earnings particularly from the tech sector so stock futures are opening up and the dollar`s benefiting from that," said Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered. "But a lot could change tomorrow depending on what Greenspan says," he said. "Greenspan is going to try to be as upbeat as possible on the economy but it will be difficult for him to be too upbeat when a lot of the current numbers are still pessimistic," Jessop said.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold fell 30 cents in Hong Kong to $344.45. Gold traded sideways as the U.S. dollar gained against the failing Euro currency and as investor interest was diverted while Asian equities markets continued to rally. N.M. Rothschild`s Australia unit said the consensus in the market is for gold to continue to take its cue from currency moves. "Fresh support for the metal will continue to be seen from investment buying at lower levels," it said in a market review issued Monday. Rothschild puts near-term support at $342.00/oz and resistance at $346.00/oz. An analyst with a major Japanese trading concern said gold could remain stuck in $340-$350 range, possibly "for weeks." Market players lack clear incentives to trade except for slight foreign exchange-related adjustments, he said. "The current is just going sideways -- it seems to be still dictated by the euro and also the U.S. dollar," said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. "Right now, chart-wise, it still looks weak. There`s a chance to move a little bit lower now, but I think for the early part of this week we will see a range of $341 to $346."

Gold slipped slightly in Asia on Monday as the failing euro languished near a two-month low against the dollar and quiet trade in Tokyo futures failed to provide grist for the range-bound market. "At this point, I still can`t tell whether the euro is merely correcting its level or if a weaker euro has become a trend," said Masamichi Koike, senior vice president at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Co in Tokyo. "In this respect, Greenspan`s remarks will be very important, and I feel that any optimistic comments could push up the dollar further," he said.

Indian imports are expected to gradually decline after traders took advantage of lower gold prices to stock up. "Many people just jumped into the market last week to capitalise on a drop in prices, but the trend is unlikely to last as demand won`t support it," said Girish Choksi, an Ahmedabad-based bullion trader. Traders said imports would pick up from next month, with the start of the festival season, after dropping for the next couple of weeks. Festival season fuels retail purchases. The period, which peaks in October with Diwali, the festival of lights, is considered auspicious by Hindus for buying gold jewellery and starting new ventures. Traders said retail demand during this festival season was expected to be better than the previous year, when a severe drought in many parts of the country had eroded rural incomes. Farmers account for two-thirds of India`s gold consumption. "We hope to see good buying during Diwali, provided we continue to get good rains this year," said Bombay-based Prithvi Raj Kothari, a bullion dealer. Winter harvests coincide with Diwali. The annual monsoon, which runs from June to September, has progressed well so far and covered the entire country. The weather office has forecast the monsoon will be normal and evenly distributed.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

One U.S. soldier was killed and six were wounded when a military convoy came under attack with rocket-propelled grenades in central Baghdad Monday, a U.S. military spokesman said. He said the convoy of several military vehicles came under attack in the al-Mansour area at around six a.m. (0200 GMT) and the casualties were evacuated to a medical facility. Witnesses said that at least one U.S. soldier was badly wounded in a separate attack about two hours later near Baghdad airport, when his military vehicle was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade. A group claiming to be linked to the al Qaeda network said on Sunday that it, and not Saddam Hussein loyalists, were behind attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and warned of more anti-U.S. attacks in coming days.

Chanting "We deserve a better government," more than 20,000 people held the third mass protest in Hong Kong this month, demanding the removal of China-backed Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa and the right to choose their own leader. The protests have led to the biggest political crisis in Hong Kong, a key Asian financial center, since the territory of seven million people was returned to China by Britain in 1997. Huddled under a sea of umbrellas in the searing summer heat, the protesters gathered peacefully in the Central business district shouting, "Return power to the citizens" and "Tung Chee-hwa resign."

A bomb exploded at Indonesia`s parliament Monday, spraying nails and concrete over a wide area in an attack that came just days after police caught nine suspected Muslim militants and seized a huge cache of explosives.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The American Machine Tool Distributors` Association (AMTDA) and the Association for Manufacturing Technology (AMT) said U.S. May machine tool demand stood at $140.78 million, down 36.4 percent from $221.25 million in May 2002. May demand was also off 0.8 percent from a revised $141.90 million in April. April demand was revised downward from $169.57 million reported a month ago. In the first five months of 2003, machine tool demand totaled $697.95 million, down 24.4 percent from $923.50 million in the same 2002 period, the groups said. "America`s investment in modern manufacturing equipment is at one of its lowest points in history," AMT President Albert Moore said in a statement.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is sure to hear concerns from lawmakers about the plight of manufacturing when he travels to Capitol Hill this week to discuss the state of the economy. Manufacturers have been plagued with a host of troubles, from deflationary pressures to asbestos liability, from soaring health care costs to gyrating energy prices. And they are complaining with increasing bitterness about the emerging economic power of China. But the chief culprit of their woes may be American businesses` own refusal to spend cash. Historically, America`s factories have led the nation out of its economic blues. Today, manufacturing is posting its weakest recovery since 1919.


Comment:

Gold broke higher today as the U.S. dollar weakened from earlier highs and on reports of strong physical demand even as global equities markets surged higher. The equities markets rallied again today as there was little economic data to guide investors. “No news is good news” as far as Wall Street is concerned, however, even with grim economic data over the last three years the equities markets have rallied recently inflating the stock market to bubble proportions once again. The U.S. dollar pulled off earlier highs as the euro recovered slightly and as Japanese monetary authorities stand ready to weaken the Yen on any sign of dollar weakness.

Gold has recently been trapped in a range with bargain hunters ready to pounce each time gold slips near $342 and ounce while Funds and speculators appeared to sell as gold touched the $346 an ounce level. Today gold punched through the $346 an ounce level and held above $347 an ounce on both short covering by speculators and reports of strong physical demand. Meanwhile gold traders are expected to hold tight over the next couple of days to await reaction to Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan’s “Humphrey-Hawkins” testimony before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will also be watching quarterly corporate earnings reports that are currently being released this week and next week.

The summer months are generally known for being a period of weakness for precious metals and is the period when investors do well to accumulate positions before retailers stock up prior to the holiday season in the west and in Asia. So far it appears that the monsoon season will be rather good in Asia and if that is the case we are likely to see especially strong physical gold demand in coming months.

Meanwhile the “Currency War” between the major trading blocks continues and the U.S. dollar remains grossly overvalued in comparison to foreign currencies. The official “strong dollar policy” has for all practical purposes effectively been abandoned and as such it is the foreign nations that have been giving support to the currency while the U.S. Federal Reserve has been working feverishly to weaken the dollar with massive dollar creating and rock bottom short-term interest rates.

The dollar remains under the crushing weight of soaring daily record setting current account, trade, and budget deficits that have no end in sight. The dollar cannot sustain this avalanche of accumulating debt indefinitely. The hard currency of gold has risen strongly against national fiat currencies over the last three years and given the current state of the global economy this trend is not likely to end anytime soon.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

July 14 - Gold $347.40 up $2.90 - Silver $4.78 unchanged

The Best Kind Of Gold Action

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The real rulers in Washington are invisible and exercise power from behind the scenes." Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter

I don`t normally watch the Sunday AM talk shows on the major networks much. Yesterday was an exception. I wanted to gauge the chatter about the recent flap over the State of the Union Speech/African nuclear material fiasco, etc. Three things were very clear:

*The White House is petrified of what could develop over this screw-up. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and National Security Advisor Condeleezza Rice made the rounds on almost all the network TV shows.
*The Administration apologists looked sheepish trying to explain their spin.
*The faux pas` concerning the 16-word uranium sentence in the speech, and that only 45 minutes of preparation was needed by Iraq to launch a WMD attack, and the assertions of fact that Iraq possessed sizeable weapons of mass destruction were hyped by the Bush Administration to create an urgency to start the war. In the end, there may have been justification to go to war with Iraq, but there was no need to go around the UN to start the war immediately. The facts were tilted to suit the agenda of the neo-cons in the administration. Meanwhile our soldiers are still sweltering anyway in Iraq`s 120-degree heat while being picked off by guerilla forces. It is a horror-show, one which is not going to go away anytime soon.

It was my contention on Friday these building revelations could have a pronounced impact on the price of gold in the weeks and months to come.

When I woke up this morning gold was $1 lower with the dollar on the strong side. By the time I checked in again at 7:30 CDT gold was $2.50 higher and the euro had not moved very much. What a pleasant surprise! Here was the call going into the opening:

By Gavin Maguire New York, July 14 (OsterDowJones) - Comex Aug gold futures were called to open unchanged to 50 cents higher Monday after a slight slip overnight in the U.S. dollar spurred a rise in physical offtake. However, the sturdier tone of the equity markets overnight limited gold`s upside momentum. Aug is expected to struggle making much notable upside progress near term as a result. –END-

Gold bolted out of the door opening $1.50/$2 higher than expected, a rather unusual occurrence. What was going on behind the scenes? Still don’t know. At first I thought it might be a producer buyback. Could be, but more and more I think it could have something to do with the Iraq flap and what’s coming down the pike. We shall see.

The negative for the day was gold did not make new highs after the opening surge, although it challenged its high a couple of times. The good news is it held its gains with the stock market surging and the dollar gained ground on the day.

Naturally, silver was not allowed to rise with gold moving up nicely. In the old free market days, it was rare for gold to move like this and not have silver close higher. Now, the opposite is the case. It is rare for gold to move up sharply and for silver to close on the plus side. How ridiculous!

The open interest in gold (188,752, up 1613 contracts) and silver (90,814 up 1173 contracts) both rose.

It looks more and more like gold has put in a bottom:

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

The best kind of gold action is when it moves up nicely on its own, unaided by visible outside market factors, such as a rising euro. That is what we got today and it bodes well for higher gold prices in the days ahead. A move above $350 ought to send bullion flying. One other note: investors forget that in 1993 gold exploded some $80 while the dollar remained very firm. A weak dollar can only be a plus, but gold doesn’t need a weak dollar to move sharply higher.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

What a strange US financial market day!

The levitating US stock market hit an air pocket late in the day, selling off sharply, but still managed to salvage nice gains.. . .buyers kept stocks well-bid until the final hour of trading, at which point, an erroneous sell order in the S&P e-mini futures contracts triggered a noticeable deterioration in the indices. The DOG rose 21 to 1755, while the DOW managed a 55-point gain to 9177.

The bonds fell late and closed in contract low ground for the move at 114`25, down 1`05. The 30-year put in another outside day key reversal to the downside, just like it did three weeks ago. The dollar rose .34 to 96.37, a new high close for the move. The euro finished the day at 112.57, down .34.

Bonds

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

Café member Doug Bowey reminds us that AIG’s highly regarded international economist, Bernard Connelly, has warned if the 10-year note takes out 3.75% resistance, it could quickly go to 5%, which would indicate Greenspan has lost control of his maneuverings. It broke 3.75% last week for about 5 minutes and reversed course. Today’s close: 3.72%.

The US economic news continues to be lousy:

US May machine tool demand off 36.4 pct from yr ago

Sun July 13, 2003 05:58 PM ET

WASHINGTON, July 13 (Reuters) - U.S. machine tool demand fell in May from the year-ago month, and also fell slightly from April, two industry trade groups said in a joint report on Sunday that underlined the sluggishness of the economy.

The American Machine Tool Distributors` Association (AMTDA) and the Association for Manufacturing Technology (AMT) said U.S. May machine tool demand stood at $140.78 million, down 36.4 percent from $221.25 million in May 2002. – END-

The US money supply is going bonkers and is gold friendly:

Richard Russell notes:

July 11, 2003 -- I`ve been looking at financial statistics for half a century, so I seldom gasp when I see a new figure. But I gasped today when I saw the latest statistic on the broad M-3 money supply. For the week ended June 20, M-3 exploded to the tune of $63.1 billion. Adding that to the two previous weeks of $20 billion each, and you have a bit over $100 billion added to M-3 over the last three weeks. That`s at an annualized rate of around $1.7 trillion. Greenspan must be in a panic, because he`s opening the liqudity-spigot wide and then some.

Trizec is the power behind Barrick Gold. More troubles for that group:

From The King Report:

Friday’s Chicago Tribune ran the front-page story that Trizec, the Sears Tower owner (tallest US building), cannot pay the $760m debt, and the value of the building has dropped sharply, so the mortgage holder, Met Life, is taking over ownership of the building, preventing a default. Trizec paid $70m (<10% down) to own the tower. The Trib reports Trizec threatened that if Met Life didn’t restructure the debt, they would walk away from the building. Met Life said ‘go ahead’. Similar real estate leveraging has occurred all over the US. Sears Tower isn’t unique or exclusive. Easy Al’s post-bubble credit creation couldn’t prevent deflation of the Sears Tower. Who’s next?

-END-


Another one of The Gold Cartel bullion banks runs into trouble with the authorities:

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin and U.S. Congressman Barney Frank tomorrow will announce a ``significant enforcement action`` against Morgan Stanley, two persons close to the investigation said.

Neither person would provide further details. Morgan Stanley spokesman Raymond O`Rourke declined to comment…..
Spitzer, the architect of the $1.4 billion global research settlement against 10 investment banks in April, has said he would continue to investigate Wall Street practices, including mutual funds. SEC Chairman William Donaldson has said he`s examining whether brokers at securities firms are given inducements to sell their own company`s mutual funds, and whether buyers are aware of these incentives. –END-

The Gold Cartel Spitzer, The Gold Cartel. There are more criminals in that group than you can shake a stick at.

This would be a major international financial event:

China central bank raises possibility of yuan reform

Monday July 14, 5:22 am ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030714/financial_china_yuan_1.html

BEIJING, July 14 (Reuters) - China aims to "perfect" the exchange rate mechanism of its yuan currency, Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the central People`s Bank of China said in a report issued on Monday. Zhou`s remarks in a working report posted on the bank`s Web site at www.pbc.gov.cn were one of the strongest indications that Beijing is looking at tinkering with its policy on the yuan, also called the renminbi, which is virtually pegged to the U.S. dollar.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"In light of current economic circumstances, we must utilise every tool of monetary policy, sustain appropriate growth in loans and money supply, continue to reform interest rates, and on the basis of a stable renminbi exchange rate, continue to perfect the exchange rate mechanism," Zhou said.People`s Bank officials could not immediately be reached for comment, but one researcher at the bank, when asked if Zhou`s remarks put more emphasis on exchange rate reform said: "I agree". –END-

If the Chinese raise the currency, it will make gold much cheaper for citizens to buy in US dollar terms. It will also be inflationary as Chinese exports will become less competitive and halt some of the deflationary pressures affecting industrialized consuming countries, especially the US.

Then, we have this about China and its money supply/currency:

China`s money supply soars 20.8%

Chi-Chu Tschang Bloomberg News

Monday, July 14, 2003

BEIJING China`s money supply grew at a record pace last month as the country`s foreign-exchange reserves surged to an all-time high, the central bank has reported.

M-2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 20.8 percent to 20.5 trillion yuan ($2.48 trillion) from a year earlier after climbing 20.2 percent in May, the People`s Bank of China reported Friday on its Web site in Beijing. The country`s foreign-exchange reserves, the second-largest in the world after Japan, totaled $346.5 billion at the end of last month.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The primary trigger for money supply growth is the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves and the central bank has not been able to fully sterilize that impact," said Jun Ma, Deutsche Bank economist. "The central bank has to be more aggressive in tightening monetary conditions otherwise they run the risk of high inflation in the rest of this year."

Money supply growth in the world`s sixth-largest economy has exceeded the central bank`s 18 percent target every month this year.

Chinese consumer prices rose in January for the first time in more than a year and have been climbing since, rising 0.7 percent from a year earlier in May. The People`s Bank of China described the money supply growth rate in May as "rather high" and may be tempted to impose more restrictions to curb bank lending. The central bank on June 13 ordered lenders to restrict loans to developers and buyers of luxury homes.
.
China`s foreign-exchange reserves are ballooning as the country`s exports surge and foreign direct investment pours in. Overseas sales grew a third last month to $34.5 billion, while foreign direct investment into China rose by about two-fifths to $5.45 billion. The country last year overtook the United States to become the world`s top recipient of such investment……

-END-


Jesse notes:

Maybe they hired Greenspan as an advisor?
It takes a lot of renminbi to buy all those US bonds and equities to keep the yuan pegged, heh heh.

As countries like China and the US explode their money supply, it becomes more obvious gold IS the GO-TO investment.

GATA’s Mike Bolser with the DOW soaring:

Hi Bill:

Today`s DOW launch [Currently up 145] stresses the repo pool hypothesis. The Fed added $6Billion with no expirations leaving the pool total around $26Billion. Are there other factors?

Scanning the currency scene we see some spin coming out of China suggestion they may revalue the Yuan which naturally would encourage dollar longs­for the moment. The downward pressure on the dollar would free up some repo pool funds to keep the DOW up.

The long bond is also tracking downwards in its yield this AM so things seem well under the Fed`s control today.

From the last week`s DOW activity, we can say that the upwards DOW inertia takes more time to reverse, while the downwards direction turned quickly as a result of permanent and temporary repo additions in early March.

There are many new false recovery hopes circulating through the media today so I`m not too concerned at the DOW`s buoyancy.

Patience and caution are always virtues when dealing with the Master of the Universe.
Mike

Mike has a difference of opinion versus Jim Sinclair on the stock market:

I don’t agree with Jim that the Fed wants equities up at the current time.

They want the far larger market to be protected–bonds. Or, even better, get them BOTH to somehow flow into an up-and-down cyclic activity so that capital gains tax revenue can be pumped into the Treasury by the "forced" sale of both financial instruments.

If the Fed wanted the DOW up they would do what they did in early March, add loads of permanents and keep the temporary repurchase agreements well up into the $40 Billions. The Fed hasn’t done that and therefore the DOW will fall back albeit more slowly than I first anticipated.
Mike


Chuck checked in on Sunday:

Bill:

Think we have just a little time before the trends really continue. GSS rose almost exactly 100% which is the magic number for a correction, and I`m sure I`m not the only one who knows this. Isn`t amazing that the gold corrections are so fierce whereas the stock market can`t sell off by much more than 1% on any day?

What I see in the charts is many of the non-listed golds have moved up into launching preparatory position. Look at CBD.TO and IMR.V charts for two more examples. The HUI looks like it may have completed its correction, so that`s another one to keep an eye on.

This feels like the exact reverse of the gold market last year at this time when the shares began to weaken even though the dollar was weak. Now that the dollar has rallied and appears to be topping, the shares have outperformed the dollar and the metal.

Finally, what a put up job on the markets. It is so unreasonable to think that the market should rally each day from 3 to 4 unless it was receiving some real help from a greater authority. But not much longer as the real trend will be unveiled. Yours, Chuck

And again:

What most observers are missing is that this is not going to be a big-named gold move. The XAU is no longer valid because of the overpriced and hedged miners. Cumberland has the same look, and to a lesser degree, the fundamentals as Golden Star. The market is recognizing the juniors that have sacrificed for years and now is ready to reap their fruits. Enjoy the weekend. Chuck

And today:

Bill:

Just before going out to work, just a brief observation. First, the market for the umpteenth time gapped up without trying to fill any of the gap. The buyers love the company of the their fellow bulls. This still exhibits bear traits. Compare this with the numerous down gaps in the gold shares all through this move from the beginning in 2000.


Secondly, gold, but more significantly, the gold shares are displaying relative good strength to the dollar.

Remember, last year at this time, in the face of a weak dollar, the shares began to show relative weakness, and soon afterward, sold off in a panic in July. It appears that today the opposite is occurring, and we can expect a strong move upward soon, especially if the dollar is topping and reversing to its primary downward trend. Stay the course and buy on any weakness or gaps down.

We still need a definitive reversal of this manic psychology that has begun to outdo the tech bubble of 1998-2000. As then, it has become very difficult to pin point this event. Chuck

A view from England:

Dear Bill,

It has been an encouraging day so far as gold dropped very little early in Europe as the euro traded down to $1.1240 but when the euro turned around gold made an impressive rally ( +$2.10 at 11:41 nyt @ $347.20) despite the Dow, S & P and nasdaq being up at least 1.5% each on the back of good results by the likes of Citigroup.

I still find it amazing that stocks are still going up even though Citi`s results were based on growing consumer borrowing!

One thing that I read over the week end in the papers here in the U.K. is that with Schroeder calling for a weak euro, the Bank of England cutting rates to soften sterling and Mr Snow having said a few weeks ago that he isn`t concerned about the recent weakness in the dollar, there is a worry that everyone is going for a 1930`s "beggar thy neighbor" policy of trying to export their way out of recession.

As we well know, gold is one currency that cannot be debased naturally.

Regards,
Mario

A Café member’s feedback:

Hi Bill:

Hope you`re having a good laugh at today`s display of absurdity in the equities. Greed and fear of missing the next big move by Joe 6-pack et al. is still the order of the day. Unfortunately for them, they`re looking in the wrong direction and are most likely being set up for a good shearing in the not too distant future. NEM and other miners are performing well. GSS is lagging today after a recent good run, but maybe more weak hands are getting out again for the umpteenth time. Of course, your observation about the inverse relationship between gold-silver prices held true today. Keep up the good work.

All of this readily brings to mind Enron. My company sold natural gas to Enron but ended up being burned when bankruptcy was declared. The other day I received an email from the class-action attorney representing us. It stated that as unsecured creditors we small producers will receive about 18 cents on the dollar, not all of that in cash. By the time the attorney takes his cut, nothing much will be left for those of us who took all the risk in exploring for and bringing to market an essential factor of our economy. Shame on us for trusting a company that was at that time the darling of the investment world.

We know now that Enron was a corrupt, criminal organization. Yet those most likely responsible, to my knowledge, have not gone to jail for their role in building that organization. They were/are politically well connected, and we certainly know what that buys you in America today. Enron was a window on how our society seems to operate today, especially when it comes to Wall Street and the continued manipulation of gold and silver. Unless action is taken soon to right the wrongs that are reported by you night after night in Midas, I fear we are all in danger of losing far more than depreciating dollars. Go GATA!

Jay

Looks like problems are building for ANOTHER heavily hedged gold company, the Daughters of Gwalia:

Bill,

Sons of Gwalia last week "fired" (retrenched) 100 people from their Gold Division.

The Sons of Gwalia Deeps underground project has, so far, failed to excite market interest. There are very strong rumours that the company will cease their Leonora operations in the near further.

The Tarmoola project and the Carouse Dam Projects are now marginal operations, with grades consistently lower that 1.6 g/t.

There is also a rumour going around that the company may be placed into Administration/Receivership.....time will tell.

Not good.

aye
Haggis

I was putzing around looking at some gold share P/E ratios today and came up with the following:

Newmont – 46.45
Meridian – 27.39
Placer – 30.72
Freeport – 27.63
Barrick – 53.18
Harmony – 23.85
Gold Fields – 23.71
Goldcorp – 32
Glamis – 104.18
Golden Star – 14.21

Gold shares have always been accorded higher P/E’s because they have always been thought of as a leveraged proxy for expectations of a higher bullion price. Knowing that, certain items stood out:

*The highly capitalized Barrick and Newmont have higher P/E’s due to their liquidity and size. As the price of gold rises and becomes more of a sure bet, the junior gold producers will gain far more on a percentage basis than the big boys.

*Even though Barrick’s share price has not gone anywhere, it seems way overpriced compared to most all other gold companies. Being such a large hedger, they have forgone the relative opportunity to participate in a rising gold price as other unhedged gold producers will. Besides that, they are having production problems. What a lemon!

*Glamis has done extremely well, but is off the charts P/E wise. Perhaps, it’s worth it.

*The South Africans are penalized for their country risk, yet, seem a good buy compared to many of their North American competitors.

*Golden Star is still a relative steal P/E wise. It has become a favorite of the momentum players and is a great buy when sold off by these players like it has been the past few days (down 16% as gold has moved higher). Besides being a growing gold producer with a low P/E, Golden Star has some of the best collection of exploration properties in the gold universe (Guyana Shield in South America). There is not a penny in the stock for those properties.

The gold shares were mixed with the XAU rising .35 to 78.44 and the HUI dropping .20 to 151.80. The HUI made its high shortly after the opening and fell the rest of the day.

All in all, an all-over-the-place and strange financial market day. The stock market run-up is reaching mania proportions as the economic/geo-political news worsens by the day. Market participants ignored the obvious regarding a deceitful Bush Administration who asked its CIA Director Tenet to fall on his sword, to take blame for The State of The Union Speech blunder, even though it was he who warned the Bush Administration about using the information. The bonds seem to be reacting to a berserk, accommodative Fed. The dollar strengthened as its fundamentals deteriorate, but other nations want their own currencies LOWER against the dollar.

The winner of the day: GOLD.

It will be the winner in the weeks, months and years ahead too.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Wer weiss, vielleicht schaffen wir ja sogar heute wieder die 350.- Dollar?

[silverpwd]

@Thai

Ich war und bin immer noch in Thailand investiert.

Meine persönliche Aversion gegen Gold hat damit zu tun, das man nirgendswo anders soviel Blödsinn lesen kann, wie in den Goldbriefen. Die Anhänger von Gold eine ganz besonders verbohrte und mit leichten Paranoia behaftete Gemeinde ist. Eine Gemeinde von Pessimisten und Schwarzsehern, das liegt mir gar nicht.
Gold kostet viel Geld und ist destruktiv, liegt einfach nur tot im Lager rum, verbessert nicht den Lebensstandard der Menschen im Gegensatz zu Unternehmertum und Pioniergeist. Gold ist Stillstand und Besitzstandswahren.
Nun, wenn man mit Gold Geld verdienen kann, könnte ich kurzfristig darüber hinwegsehen , aber selbst das glaube ich nicht.

[sterngleiter]

<hallo silver...

der einzige der hier leichte geistige Schwierigkeiten
mit der realistischen Verarbeitung von Fakten im Gold-
bereich hat, bist Du.

Jeder kann seine eigene Meinung halten, da muss er sich
nicht erst von Dir beschimpfen oder belehren lassen, zu-
mal Du - gemessen an Deinen qualitätslosen Berichten-
die Intelligenz nicht mit Löffeln gefressen hast.

Andere Leute in diesem Forum indirekt zu beschimpfen, nur
weil sie nicht Deine Meinung teilen, ist charakter-bzw.
niveaulos.

Nimm Dir bitte ein Beispiel an Thaiguru der seine Meinung
mit aktuellen,qualitätsbestückten Fakten zum Besten gibt,
und nicht hirnlos mit faktenlosen Beschimpfungen um sich
schlägt.

Auf so etwas kann mit Sicherheit die breite Masse dieses
Forums verzichten!!!!!

[Stosstrupp_Gold]

@silverpwd

"Die Anhänger von Gold eine ganz besonders verbohrte und mit leichten Paranoia behaftete Gemeinde ist. Eine Gemeinde von Pessimisten und Schwarzsehern, das liegt mir gar nicht."

Ist doch gut so! Willkommen bei den Goldbugs, der geistigen Elite der Gesellschaft!
Merke: Pessimisten sind deshalb zu Pessimisten geworden, weil sie den grundlegenden Verrottungsprozeß der Welt erkannt haben.

"Gold verbessert nicht den Lebensstandard der Menschen im Gegensatz zu Unternehmertum und Pioniergeist."

Ja, die venture-capital-Abzocker und dot.com.Geldverbrenner haben die Menschheit in der Tat ein ganzes Stück weitergebracht....wenn auch nur auf dem Sektor des absurden Theaters...

Also geh lieber zurück zu den Lemmingen. Schalt Dein Hirn aus, freu Dich über den Sommer, laß Dir die Nase piercen und juble den Idolen der plastikhaften Spaßgesellschaft zu, die ein Vorbild an Pioniergeist darstellen....Willkommen in der Doofgesellschaft. Geh zurück in Deine Welt und laß uns Goldbugs in der unsrigen....

[silverpwd]

Seht Ihr, genau das meine ich...
Und anscheinend habe ich das Beschimpfen auch nicht gepachtet

"Ja, die venture-capital-Abzocker und dot.com.Geldverbrenner haben die Menschheit in der Tat ein ganzes Stück weitergebracht....wenn auch nur auf dem Sektor des absurden Theaters"

Das sieht du etwas zu kurzfristig. Ohne Risikokapital hättest du deine Zeilen nicht tippen und hier veröffentlichen können.

Mit einen Haufen Gold unter dem Hintern in einer steinzeitlichen Höhle sitzen und den ganzen Tach alles ist Scheisse schreien ist natürlich besser..

[konradi]

.


@ silver und alle die so argumentieren wie Du, lies...


...doch mal wieder Kostolany !

von Jochen Steffens

Am Samstag habe ich das schöne Wetter genutzt, um mal wieder durch die Kölner Innenstadt zu bummeln. Plötzlich traf ich eine alte Freundin, die ich über ein Jahr nicht mehr gesehen hatte. Sie hatte sich damals nach schmerzhaften Verlusten endgültig von der Börse verabschiedet. Endgültig? Es vergingen nur wenige Minuten und sie nahm mich etwas beiseite und erzählte, sie hätte nun wieder, nach eineinhalb Jahren, Aktien gekauft. Infineon! Was ich denn davon hielte? Dabei sah sie mich mit hoffnungsvollen Augen an.

Vielleicht werden Sie verstehen, dass ich mich ein wenig unwohl fühlte und rumdruckste. Ich fragte sie erst einmal, wie sie denn gerade jetzt auf diese Idee gekommen sei? Sie antwortete, dass sie in der Baisse schließlich viel Geld verloren habe und deswegen lange nichts mehr von Börse hätte hören wollen. So hätte sie seit über einem Jahr nicht mal mehr in ihr Portfolio geschaut. Nun laufe es doch alles wieder gut an den Börsen. Man höre doch überall, dass die Baisse vorbei sei. Dann wurden ihre Augen etwas trüber. Sie sei allerdings gerade wieder im Minus bei Infineon. Was solle Sie tun? Ich wusste, was sie hören wollte und ich wusste, dass ich nicht derjenige war, der ihr das auch sagen würde.

Sie kennen natürlich meine Meinung. Ich erklärte ihr, dass gerade sie für mich ein weiteres Zeichen sei, dass wir uns in der letzten Phase dieser Rallye befinden. Ich erklärte ihr auch warum. Fast immer, wenn auch der letzte und frustrierteste Anleger kauft, ist das Ende zumindest nah. Ich riet ihr einen Stopp unter Infineon zu setzten und zu hoffen, dass es noch etwas weiter geht. Aber auf jeden Fall sollte sie diese Position nicht wieder, wie damals, zu tief in den Verlust laufen zu lassen. Ich riet ihr auch den Stopp "real" zu setzten und legte ihr nahe, den Stop auf einen Monat festzulegen.

Sie wird mich heute morgen, angesichts der Stärke der Infineonaktie, Infineon liegt gerade mit 5,81 % vorne, für nicht ganz dicht halten. Sie wird sich bestätigt fühlen und glauben, dass alle anderen Recht haben. Und ich befürchte, sie wird deswegen auch keinen Stop setzen. Die ersteren beiden Punkte mögen ja richtig sein. Aber der letztere ... den sollte sie trotzdem beachten.

Etwas später entdeckte ich in einer Buchhandlung zwei drastisch reduzierte Bücher von unserem Altmeister: Kostolany. "Kostolanys Börsenseminar" und "Die Kunst über Geld nachzudenken". Ich hatte schon länger nichts mehr von Kostolany gelesen, so konnte ich nicht nein sagen und griff zu. Anschließend habe ich beide Bücher komplett gelesen, was mich eine schlaflose Nacht gekostet hat, aber gut, es war zu interessant.

Auch wenn ich viele Thesen ja bereits kannte, es tat gut, sie noch einmal so geballt zu lesen. Nach dieser Nacht war ich nicht nur besonders müde – den ganzen Sonntag über, sondern mir war auch völlig klar, was Kostolany jetzt gerade tun würde.

Doch zuvor ein paar kleine Zitate aus diesen Büchern dazu: "Man muss misstrauisch, zynisch und auch ein wenig eingebildet sein, um sich sagen zu können: Ihr seid alle Dummköpfe, nur ich weiß etwas, oder auf jeden Fall weiß ich es besser. Ein harter Spekulant darf nicht einmal seinem eigenen Vater trauen, geschweige denn Banken, der Presse, den Medien, den Maklern und allen anderen Schlawinern."

"Man muss immer damit rechnen, dass die dritte Phase der Aufwärtsbewegung explosiv sein kann. Für viele Spekulanten besteht die große Gefahr darin, zu glauben, mit dem Verkauf (oder short gehen) einen Irrtum begangen zu haben. Ihr Schmerz ist groß, denn sie rechnen jeden Tag dem versäumten Gewinn nach.

"Macht die Börse süchtig? Ich glaube, ja!"

Wir befinden uns allem Anschein nach in der dritten Phase einer Aufwärtsbewegung. Trotzdem kann ich Ihnen nicht sagen, wie hoch die Börsen noch getrieben werden. Ich werde Ihnen jedoch sagen können, wann die Börse ihren Todesstoß erhalten hat. Bis dahin können im "schlechtesten Fall" sogar noch mehrere Monate vergehen. Auch das wurde mir nach dieser Nacht klar.

Nach der Lektüre dieser beiden Bücher, bilde ich mir jedoch ein zu wissen, was Kostolany gerade machen würde: Er würde den Euro kaufen, Aktien verkaufen und auf deutliche Umkehrsignale warten, um short zu gehen. Zu Anleihen hätte er wohl die gleiche Meinung, die gerade Bill Bonner heute vertritt (s.u.). Kostolany benannte zudem einen wichtigen Faktor für seine Anlageentscheidungen. Ein Hoch sei erreicht, wenn die meisten in seinem Umfeld (Menschen, die seit Jahren keine Aktien mehr angefasst haben), ihn fragen würden, ob diese oder jene Aktie nicht doch noch weiter laufen könnte.

Eins noch zum Schluss: Vergleichen Sie mal die Entwicklung im Dax-Chart von Anfang 2001 bis jetzt. Sie werden viele der "roundings" erkennen, von denen ich Freitag schrieb. Schauen Sie sich dazu besonders die Entwicklung seit dem 11. September 2001 an. Dann vergleichen Sie diese Kursbewegung mit der Kursbewegungen, die aktuell zu erkennen ist. Sie werden erkennen, dass es jederzeit wegbrechen und dass es genauso noch eine zeitlang weiter hoch gehen kann. Ich mag diese "roundings" nicht, denn sie lassen keine klaren Analysen zu,

Mir ist ein Gerücht zu Ohren gekommen: Einige Institutionelle wollten den Markt bis 3400 Punkte treiben und auf dem Niveau ihre Verkäufe platzieren. Die 3400 ist erreicht. Ich bin gespannt was nun passiert.

Charttechnisch hat der Dax jedoch auch noch Platz bis 3500 Punkte.

[erdede]

die CABAL auf zwei Fronten aktiv....auf die ist verlass

[silverpwd]

Ich habe alle Kostobücher gelesen und bin ein grosser Fan von ihm.
Ich denke der Autor sollte Kosto nochmal lesen, er hat ihn nicht verstanden.
Mein Lieblingszitat "Nirgendwo auf der Welt gibts es soviele Dummköpfe auf der Welt, wie auf einem Quadratmeter auf dem Börsenparkett"
Kosto war übrigends ein grosser Amerika-Fan und hielt von Gold nicht viel, letzteres teile ich mit ihm .
Ich habe auch in Erinnerung wie er sich mal lustig machte über die Dollarpessimisten , die übrigends dieselben Argumente wie heute bringen.

[manfred1_I]

an thai-guru

die Jungs halten heute aber schwer gegen einen
weiteren Antieg.

[bmann025]

Hallo silverpwd,

finde es gut, hier auch mal was anderes zu lesen

[hpoth]

@
Lieber ThaiGuru,
es sind noch 30 Minuten in NY,daß wird wohl nichts mehr für heute.Aber immer das selbe Spiel Europa hoch dann komnt
der Ami -Hammer und kallts wieder nieder wie lange geht das noch.Bisher hat es ja immer noch leider geklappt.Gruß hpoth

[hpoth]

@ Sterngleiter,

stimme Dir vollkomnen zu, ThaiGuru bringt immer gute Infos mit sehr guten Hintergrundinformationen.Es ist aber immer daselbe der Prophet im eignen Land wird immer verkannt.Gruß hpoth

[hpoth]

@ silverpwd
Habe viele Kosto Seminare erlebt,auch das letzte alerdings nur eine Vidorepotage da er nicht mehr selbst auftreten konnte bei Bodo Schäfer ( ist übrings auch Pleite mit seine Tech -Fonds ect.).Für Kosto gabs ja immer nur eins der Dollar und nochmals der Dollar, das war das wahre für Ihn vieleicht lags auch an der Verganenheit, wo er eben gute Erfahrungen mit dem Dollar machte, aber das in alle Ewigkeit weiter zu predigen war wohl falsch am Platz.Die bessere Währung ist auf jeden Fall das Gold und Gold wird in der Zukunft alle Investments haushoch schlagen.
Gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

So Du bezichtigst also die Gold Investoren der Paranoia. Du glaubst wie Du schreibst angeblich überhaupt nicht an einen Wert, oder Sinn von Gold.

Dann möchte ich Dir einmal ganz direkt sagen was ich von solchen Aussagen halte.

Rein gar nichts

Weil es nur Phrasen, Sprüche, oder wiedergekäute Abbilder der verangegangenen 20 jährigen verbalen Gehirnwäsche gegen Gold sind.


Leute die nicht selbst denken, und erkennen können, wie es bei Dir mindestens in Bezug auf`s Gold Geschehen der Fall ist, sind willige Medien einer gefährlichen Entwicklung die in immer grösseren Ausmas unser tägliches Leben bestimmen.

Leute Deiner Ansichten zum Gold Geschehens, oder was Du dafür zu halten scheinst, sind der Untergang jeder Individualität, und des freien Denkens, und Handelns. Deine total negativen Ansichten zum Gold, und der in Abrede stellen jeglicher Manipulation beim Goldpreisgeschehen, sind nicht nur Ausdruck von grosser Ignoranz und Feigheit vor der Wahrheit, sondern noch weit mehr ein Eingeständnis von Selbstaufgabe.

Du bist nur noch ein Schaf in der Herde Mann!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Manfred1

Wie wahr, trotzdem sehe ich diesen 6.- Dollar Spike nach unten als Gold Bug nicht allzu negativ.

1. Geht`s bald wieder hoch mit dem Goldpreis.
2. Kann ich noch eine fehlende Gold Aktie etwas günstiger als geplant kaufen.
3. Die Nachfrage nach physischem Gold wird noch mehr steigen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[silverpwd]

Uuups, das war hart...

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Uns Gold Bugs wird vermutlich noch öfters kurzfristig ein Strich durch die Rechnung gemacht werden. Trotzdem haben wir aus fundamentalen Gründen absolut richtig und verausschauend investiert, und werden unsere Ernte garantiert noch mit "Zinsen und Zinseszinsen" einfahren.

Für die unentschlossenen unter den potenziellen Goldanlegern, hat sich gerade wieder eine neue verlockende Möglichkeit eröffnet, 5.- Dollar pro Unze billiger physisches Gold einkaufen zu kaufen als noch gestern.

Uebrigens, bei KITCO.com wird der Goldpreis zur Zeit immer noch mit 348.- Dollar angegeben.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Wenn das kein gutes Ohmen ist?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[silverpwd]

Wann bekommt Gold endlich den Gnadenschuss durch die 340 ?

[juxifuxi]

#6439

bei mir zeigt Kidco aber um diese Zeit ca. 341,50 US-$

Was für ein Omen

[macvin]

@silverpwd

Es kann problemlos noch bis knapp 330 gehen ohne dass es einen Gnadenschuss gibt. Gold ist eine kapriziöse Lady und linkt gar manchmal den unbedarften Investor....

Rein saisonal sind Juli und August keine guten Goldmonate. Studiere mal die Verläufe in diesen Monaten im Jahre 2002...

Cu macvin

[ThaiGuru]

@Juxifuzzi

Pass auf die sperren Dir bei Wnoch Deine zweit ID

[juxifuxi]

Weil ich Deine Meldung korrigiert habe ?

Seltsam

[Stosstrupp_Gold]

"Wann bekommt Gold endlich den Gnadenschuss durch die 340 ?"

Für den Fangschuß, der den Goldshorts vorbehalten ist, empfehle ich schon mal den Drilling zu putzen....Meine Empfehlung: Dynamit-Nobel 7x57R auf 50 Meter direkt zwischen die Augen...

[juxifuxi]

Zu dem Chart :

also, ich denke mal die schwarze Linie ist von heute (15.07.) und das steht auch noch : last 442 $

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 15, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled lower at $341.80 an ounce, down $5.60 an ounce from yesterday’s close. "Greenspan knocked gold off," one trader said. "Most of the day had been spent looking at the euro, and as [the euro] came off, the strength disappeared." Gold and silver sold off hard, bonds dived, and the stock market tumbled as traders took Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan`s upbeat economic comments on Capitol Hill as a signal to sell. The central banker, testifying about the state of the U.S. economy, said little to indicate he expects a return of inflation anytime soon, undercutting gold`s attractiveness as an inflation hedge. The decline in gold coincided almost exactly with the release of Greenspan`s prepared testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

Earlier analysts were more upbeat on precious metals before being blindsided by Alan Greenspan’s testimony. "I think people are looking at what Greenspan has to say. No one really wants to take a position either way," said Kevin Grady, a gold trader at Refco LLC. "People are keeping an eye on the dollar/euro, and with that euro up, it`s giving some support to the metal," he said. "There is no other `stance,` technically at least, than neutral until $354 is taken out on the upside or $342 gives way on the downside," Greg Weldon, publisher of Metal-Monitor.com, commented in a daily report.

"Given that interest rate expectations have been a key driver for the dollar, if we do see the market taking Greenspan`s comments to be quite dovish we could see the dollar actually weaken slightly," said Steven Saywell, senior currency strategist at Citigroup. "Having said that however we think the overall tone -- as far as expectation of a U.S. recovery is concerned -- should be confirmed by U.S. data today and this week, so we would suggest that any pause in the dollar rebound is just that and shouldn`t represent a change in direction."


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $348.25 an ounce, down from $348.50 an ounce at the morning fixing. “Overnight trade has followed the quiet theme with gold confined to a tight range between $346-7.50 as traders continue to watch the currency market for short term direction. Further gains are likely to be seen over the coming sessions as festive physical buying from India, technical buying from chartists and continued funds buying enter the market making the yellow metals next target a test of $352-5 after conquering resistance around the 100-day moving average at $346.10 yesterday,” said James Moore an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in a report. "The narrow range we were trading in ($342.00/346.00) we`ve broken above that, but we`re still in the $342.00/352.00 range we`ve been in for quite some time. I think the market got a bit overextended on the downside," said Simon Weeks, bullion director at ScotiaMocatta. Analyst Rhona O`Connell at the World Gold Council said gold prices were "treading water" ahead of US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan`s Congressional testimony at 15:00 BST today.

Physical demand from India due to the wedding season has been cited as a strong factor in the market after the euro, but Barclays Capital said in a daily report that larger speculators were possibly bolstering their gold holdings. "What seems more likely is that speculative length, which fell to its lowest level since the first week of May last week, is being added to, with the physical demand at best strengthening the floor beneath the market," Barclays said.

"Most market attention is of course on Fed chairman Greenspan`s speech to Congress on the state of the US economy and interest rate policy," said Commerzbank analyst Nick Parsons. ``Nervousness has crept back into the market,`` said Monica Fan, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. Greenspan will ``have to walk a fine line between supporting the equity and bond markets, and the risk is stocks and the dollar are disappointed,`` she said. ``The market is skittish`` before Greenspan`s speech, said Matthew Tatnell, who helps oversee the equivalent of $177 billion at Morley Fund Management in London. ``I expect he will play down the prospects for faster growth.`` Tatnell added that he needs ``more clarity on the economy`` before becoming more positive on the dollar.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold rose $4.20 in Hong Kong to $348.65. Gold gained as the Euro strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar while most traders await U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony today before Congress. "Gains overseas and a rise in lease rates are also propping up prices," said Itochu Futures analyst Koji Suzuki. Traders said players would be keeping a keen eye on a slew of U.S. economic data out this week, including retail sales, consumer sentiment, housing starts and industrial production.

The Japanese monetary authorities are thought to have sold yen for dollars several times last week. "From the way the dollar has bounced back from the low and after seeing such a large number of bids detected, the bids had to have been from the BOJ," said a forex section manger at a Japanese bank. "Since the market is already well aware that the BOJ would intervene when the dollar falls to around 117 yen, basically, people don`t want to touch dollar/yen. That`s why the (dollar/yen) market is so thin," the manager said. "The dollar appears to be benefiting from high share prices, with funds shifting out of high-yielding currencies into stocks and the dollar," said Hiroyuki Watanabe, a forex section manager at Shinsei Bank in Tokyo.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

President Bush indicated he was open to a "limited" deployment of U.S. troops to prop up a cease-fire in turbulent Liberia. Bush said on Monday he had a "a meeting of minds" with visiting U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who has been pressing him to intervene in the West African nation, where protracted warfare has destabilized the region. "Any commitment we have would be limited in size and limited in tenure," Bush said, adding that he was waiting for final assessment reports from U.S. teams in West Africa before making a final decision.

Taliban fighters attacked a district police station in southern Afghanistan`s volatile Kandahar province, killing five men, including a commander, a security official said on Tuesday. The Taliban fighters arrived in four pickup trucks on Monday night and attacked the police station in Ghorak district to the northwest of the city of Kandahar. "The clash lasted for more than half an hour. The chief police of Ghorak, Sahak Mama, is among the five killed," said Salim Khan, a provincial intelligence official. "The Taliban have fled back to their hideouts."


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The White House is expected on Tuesday to forecast record budget deficits in excess of $400 billion this fiscal year and next with little hope of a turnaround anytime soon. Democrats said the deficit was approaching crisis proportions and deteriorating rapidly. Some fiscal conservatives urged President Bush to do more to reverse the trend before it gets any worse. The White House countered that the bigger deficits were "manageable" and reflected economic and national security priorities following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. Administration officials said the budget projections would include, for the first time, initial costs of the war in Iraq. Military operations there and in Afghanistan have cost roughly $4.8 billion a month -- $58 billion on an annual basis -- which is well over initial estimates, according to the Concord Coalition, a balanced budget advocacy group.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its Empire State Manufacturing Survey eased to 22.6 in July from a revised 27.6 in June. The June level was a record high for the two-year-old index. Of the Empire State survey`s components, new orders remained at a high level, at 16.9 in July compared with 17.0 in June. Shipments rose solidly to 21.2 from 16.1 in June, suggesting production may be ramped up in coming months. Price pressures resumed in July, after dipping below zero in June. The prices paid index rose to 6.5 from -2.0. In a gloomy sign, employment measures weakened and pointed to further contraction in manufacturing jobs in July, with the number of employees index falling to -8.6 from zero. The six-month business outlook remained high, and near to the levels recorded before the war in Iraq. The six-month business outlook was at 52.5, down from 58.9 in June, with future new orders and shipments above 50. Six months out, employment was also expected to increase.

The Commerce Department said retail sales grew by 0.5 percent to $310.42 billion in June after being flat in May. It was the strongest gain since March. June sales excluding motor vehicles were up a stronger 0.7 percent after rising 0.1 percent in May. The numbers were close to Wall Street expectations, which were for a retail sales gain of 0.5 percent overall, and a rise of 0.4 percent excluding autos. Analysts expect U.S. consumer spending to be supported ahead by continued low interest rates and a boost to paychecks from tax cuts in an economic stimulus package passed by Congress in May.

Investor`s Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (IBD/TIPP) said their monthly economic optimism index inched up to 56.2 in July from 56.1 the prior month, so holding above the 50.0 boom/bust mark. The biggest gain in the overall index came from the federal policy component which firmed to 52.7 from 50.3, reflecting in part the Fed`s quarter percentage point rate cut of June 25. The personal financial outlook, which gauges how respondents feel about their personal finances in the next six months, held steady at 61.0 in July. However, the economic outlook index, which measures how consumers feel about the economy`s prospects six months from now, slipped to 54.7 from 57.0 in June.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled on Tuesday he was ready to keep U.S. interest rates low for a "considerable" period of time to lift the sagging economy and ward off the threat of a dangerous fall in prices. The Fed chief also said there is room for the central bank`s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to reduce rates beyond their current 45-year low of 1 percent if the economy fails to rebound strongly enough. "The FOMC stands prepared to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for as long as needed to promote satisfactory economic performance," Greenspan told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in his semiannual monetary report. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the fiscal woes of many states has hurt the economy this year and will likely continue to have a negative impact next year. He also said the United States could sustain several years of deficits, as long as the budget returns to surplus in due course. "I would suggest you can take, as we have over the years, several years of fairly large deficits provided that they turn around at some point," Greenspan told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in response to a question.


Comment:

Gold fell lower as Funds, banks and speculators sold off as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in his semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Amazingly few grasped the dire economic outlook because they refused to read between the lines and took his positive comments on the economy at face value. The stock market sold lower and the bond market took a hit as well while the U.S. dollar soared against major currencies as soon as the testimony began. Surprisingly almost all commodities sold off today. As Greenspan said that all was well with the economy, a few Congressmen blasted the Chairman for “not living in the real world”. Greenspan did mention that the Fed has plenty of room to cut interest rates even though the short-term rate sits at a low 75 basis points. He also mentioned the “nonconventional means” to manage the economy but unfortunately he did not elaborate and Congressmen not being the brightest bulbs in government failed to follow up with the hard questions. Tomorrow it’s the Senate’s turn and maybe we will get some clarification of the chairman’s comments, but I have little confidence in the Senate because here too is another collection of dim bulbs. Who knows maybe they will surprise us by asking some hardball questions.

The upside to today’s market action is that weak hands were shaken out of positions and the lower precious metals prices will likely spur greater physical demand as bargain hunters are certain to scoop up precious metals. One point lost on today’s market traders is that Greenspan talked up the possibility of “unlimited” rate cuts (an unlikely scenario in my opinion with only 75 basis points in positive territory). The U.S. dollar soared as the chairman talked about further rate cuts and “nonconventional means” but at the same time the bond market got hit rather hard. However, if there are more short term interest rate cuts as Greenspan suggests then the “real” rate will sink even further into negative territory making gold a screaming buy as the opportunity cost becomes nonexistent. So long as the “real” inflation rate is greater than the nominal interest rate, the “real” interest rate becomes negative making commodities and hard assets like gold very attractive. If we learn anything from history it is that low to negative “real” rates are ultimately very positive for hard assets that hold value against inflation (not to mention hard assets also provide protection in deflationary environments as well) Today’s temporary drop in precious metals gives investors another opportunity to accumulate on the cheap.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/pw/de/1058101412321.html?nv=hpm

ftd.de, Di, 15.7.2003, 11:25, aktualisiert: Di, 15.7.2003, 20:52

Wirtschaftsforscher rechnen mit Stagnation

Der Internationale Währungsfonds und das Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle haben ihre Wachstumsprognosen für 2003 und 2004 gesenkt. Bei den Staatsfinanzen gebe es " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"kein Licht am Ende des Tunnels".

Wie das Bundesfinanzministerium am Dienstag in Berlin mitteilte, geht der IWF nicht mehr von 0,5 Prozent Wachstum in Deutschland aus. Auch das Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) hat seine Wachstumsprognosen für Deutschland deutlich nach unten revidiert. Wie es ebenfalls am Dienstag mitteilte, rechnet es für das laufende Jahr nur noch mit einem Mini-Wachstum von 0,1 Prozent und damit ebenfalls praktisch mit einer Stagnation.

Die Prognosen liegen weit unter den Zahlen, mit der die Bundesregierung derzeit noch rechnet. Für das laufende Jahr geht Finanzminister Hans Eichel noch immer von 0,75 Prozent aus. Für kommendes Jahr liegt die Rechnungsgrundlage offiziell bei zwei Prozent. Experten halten diese Prognosen aber für unrealistisch hoch. Der IWF hat seine Prognose für das kommende Jahr von 1,9 auf rund 1,5 Prozent reduziert. Das IWH senkte seine Erwartung von 2,1 auf 1,7 Prozent.

Forscher dämpfen Optimismus

Mit ihren revidierten Prognosen dämpften die Forscher den verhaltenen Optimismus, der sich am Dienstag Morgen verbreitete. Das Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) mit positiven Konjunkturerwartungen für Schlagzeilen gesorgt. Analysten warnten jedoch vor zu großer Euphorie.

Der ZEW-Indikator der Konjunkturerwartungen von Finanzexperten stieg für Juli überraschend stark an. Steigende Aktienkurse und der zuletzt schwächere Euro hatten die Konjunkturerwartungen der Finanzmarktexperten überraschend stark beflügelt. Das ZEW rechnet mit einem Aufschwung zu Beginn des kommenden Jahres.

ZEW sieht Aufstieg aus der Talsohle

Der vom ZEW ermittelte Saldo der Konjunkturerwartungen der befragten Analysten und institutionellen Anleger für Juli kletterte unerwartet deutlich auf 41,9 von 21,3 Punkten im Juni. Der ZEW-Indikator liegt nach dem siebten Anstieg in Folge nun wieder über seinem historischen Mittelwert von 33 Punkten und signalisiert nach ZEW-Einschätzung einen Konjunkturaufschwung ab Anfang 2004.

Das ZEW sprach von einem Signal für den Aufschwung. "Der Indikatorwert legt nahe, dass Deutschland sich anschickt, die Talsohle zu verlassen", sagte ZEW-Chef Wolfgang Franz. Zu dem neuen Optimismus hätten auch Fortschritte in der Reformdiskussion beigetragen. Von Reuters befragte Volkswirte hatten im Schnitt nur mit einem Anstieg auf 25,0 Zähler gerechnet. Das Stimmungsbarometer für die Euro-Zone legte den ZEW-Angaben zufolge auf 50,5 von 38,0 Punkten im Juni zu.

Dax drehte in die Gewinnzone

Auch der IWF rechnet damit, dass die jüngsten Zinssenkungen und die angekündigten Steuersenkungen zusammen mit einer allmählichen Erholung der Weltwirtschaft zu einer Belebung des Wachstums im kommenden Jahr führen werden.

Der Deutsche Aktienindex (Dax) drehte nach der ZEW-Veröffentlichung in die Gewinnzone und näherte sich einem neuen Jahreshoch an. Der Euro stieg zunächst um einen Viertel US-Cent auf über 1,13 $, gab dann aber wieder nach. Am Rentenmarkt fielen die Kurse europäischer Staatsanleihen. Analysten zeigten sich positiv überrascht, bewerteten das Ergebnis aber auch zurückhaltend.

"Das ist fantastisch"

"Das ist fantastisch", sagte Gerd Haßel von der ING BHF-Bank. Hintergrund seien unter anderem die jüngsten Verbesserungen des US-Einkaufsmanagerindexes und der Ifo-Geschäftserwartungen sowie die Erholung der Aktienmärkte. "All das sind Gründe, warum man wieder positiver in die Zukunft schauen kann", sagte Haßel. Hinzu komme das wahrscheinliche Vorziehen der Steuerreformstufe und eine teilweise Kreditfinanzierung, die einen "konjunkturellen Nettoeffekt" gebe.

Auch die Wirtschaftsforscher aus Halle gehen davon aus, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft zu Beginn des Jahres 2004 einen Impuls durch das In-Kraft-Treten der Steuerreformstufen zwei und drei erhalten wird. Der Konsum werde sich beleben. Doch die Nachfrageschwäche werde sich damit nur vorübergehend verbessern. Zudem dürfte ein Teil des Vorziehens der dritten Reformstufe vermutlich gegenfinanziert werden, so dass von dieser Seite her auch ein hemmender Effekt entstehe. Ferner würden die privaten Haushalte wahrscheinlich Teile ihres Vorteils durch die Steuersenkungen einsparen statt ausgeben. Die Anregung des Konsums werde daher eher relativ klein ausfallen.

Warnung vor übertriebener Euphorie

Auch Haßel hält eine zu große Euphorie nicht für gerechtfertigt. "Man sollte jetzt aber nicht zu sehr in Optimismus machen. Der Anstieg beim ZEW ist so rasant, dass man damit rechnen muss, dass er in den nächsten Monaten wieder etwas runter kommt", sagte er.

Auch Jörg Krämer von Invesco Asset Management sagte, der ZEW-Indikator dürfe "nicht blind als Aufschwungsignal" interpretiert werden. Der Volkswirt sieht in der zweiten Jahreshälfte nach wie vor keine Belebung der Konjunktur: "Die Zeiten des Herabrevidierens der Konjunkturerwartungen sind vorbei, aber ein Aufschwung steht noch nicht an."

Risiko, aufs falsche Pferd zu setzen

Zurückhaltend äußerte sich daher auch Thomas Hueck von der HypoVereinsbank: "Es bleibt dabei: Sentiment-Indikatoren haben uns im letzten Jahr auf die falsche Fährte gebracht, und das Risiko, dass es auch dieses Jahr voreilig ist, auf dieses Pferd zu setzen, ist sicherlich hoch." Der vom ZEW angezeigte Zeitpunkt einer Wende zum Jahreswechsel sei "völlig ok". "Es bleibt aber, dass die ganzen strukturellen Hindernisse, die wir die ganzen Jahre hatten, nicht beseitigt worden sind", sagte Hueck.

Das ZEW befragt monatlich gut 300 Analysten und institutionelle Anleger zu ihren mittelfristigen Erwartungen hinsichtlich Konjunktur, Zinsen, Aktien- und Wechselkursen. Der Saldo der Konjunkturerwartungen gibt die Differenz der positiven und der negativen Einschätzungen für die Wirtschaftsentwicklung auf Sicht von sechs Monaten wieder.

Skepsis am Arbeitsmarkt

Skeptisch sind die Forscher aus Halle auch bei der Entwicklung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und der Staatsfinanzen. So heißt es in dem Bericht, für eine nennenswerte Entlastung des Arbeitsmarktes reiche das Wachstum 2004 nicht aus. Die bisherigen Arbeitsmarktreformen zeigten wenig Wirkung. Dennoch bewertete das Institut die Strukturreformen der Agenda 2010 im Grundsatz positiv. Dem IWH zufolge wird die Arbeitslosenzahl mit durchschnittlich knapp 4,5 Millionen trotz der eingeleiteten Arbeitsmarktreformen sowohl im laufenden wie im nächsten Jahr hoch bleiben.

Bei den Staatsfinanzen in Deutschland sei weiterhin „kein Licht am Ende des Tunnels“. Mit einem Defizit von 3,9 Prozent im laufenden und 3,4 Prozent im kommenden Jahr werde Deutschland drei Jahre in Folge die europäische Defizitobergrenze von drei Prozent verletzen.

© 2003 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/pw/in/1058101413504.html?nv=hptn

Aus der FTD vom 16.7.2003

Fed verspricht Ära geringer Zinsen

Von Andreas Krosta, Frankfurt und Mark Schieritz, Berlin

Die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) hat der Wirtschaft ein dauerhaftes Zinstief versprochen. Mit einer langen Periode historisch niedriger Zinsen will Fed-Chef Alan Greenspan die sich abzeichnende Konjunkturerholung untermauern.

Die Fed werde an dieser Geldpolitik festhalten, bis die Wirtschaft ein befriedigendes Wachstum erreicht habe, sagte Greenspan am Dienstag vor dem US-Kongress. Zudem hielt die Fed sich die Tür für weitere Zinssenkungen offen. Auch beim aktuellen Zins von 1,0 Prozent, dem niedrigsten Stand seit 45 Jahren, seien Senkungen möglich, sagte Greenspan mit überraschender Deutlichkeit.

Der Notenbankchef verfolgt mit seiner Politik zwei Ziele. Dauerhaft niedrige Zinsen sollen den Aufschwung fördern und die Wirtschaft zur Vollauslastung zurückführen. Mit einer weiteren Senkung würde sich die Fed überdies gegen die latente Gefahr einer Deflation absichern. Erst Ende Juni hatte sie deshalb den Leitzins um 25 Basispunkte gesenkt.

Eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik erwarten Ökonomen nun im vierten Quartal. Eine Zinserhöhung dagegen, wie von einigen Volkswirten befürchtet, ist in weite Ferne gerückt. "Wir gehen davon aus, dass mit einer Anhebung der Leitzinsen nicht vor Mitte 2004 zu rechnen ist", sagte Commerzbank-Ökonom Patrick Franke.

Optimistische Prognose

Greenspan äußerte sich optimistisch über das Wirtschaftswachstum, nannte aber auch Risiken für die Konjunktur, etwa höhere Energiepreise. Die Fed prognostiziert den USA für das nächste Jahr ein Wachstum zwischen 3,75 und 4,75 Prozent - und liegt damit über den Vorhersagen der meisten Banken. Die Finanzmärkte reagierten prompt auf Greenspans Optimismus: Der Euro verlor bis zum späten Abend 0,8 Prozent und notierte bei 1,119 $.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Greenspan versucht in erster Linie, sich gegen Deflation abzusichern", sagte Gregor Beckmann, Ökonom der Bank HSBC.

Dies signalisiere die Bereitschaft für eine weitere Zinssenkung. Die fallenden Preise bereiten der Fed seit dem Frühjahr Sorgen.

Allerdings erteilte der Geldpolitiker unkonventionellen Maßnahmen, insbesondere dem Rückkauf von Staatsanleihen, eine Absage und enttäuschte damit die Märkte.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Solche Aktionen sind höchst unwahrscheinlich",

erklärte Greenspan. Der Kurs der zehnjährigen US-Staatsanleihen sackte daraufhin ab, die Renditen schossen in die Höhe. "Die Märkte hatten sich auf die Rückkäufe eingestellt - nun ist Fantasie aus dem Markt", so HSBC-Ökonom Beckmann. Mit der Politik könnte die Fed langfristige Zinsen nach unten treiben, um Kredite zu vergünstigen. Beckmann wertete dies als Zeichen dafür, dass die Fed den Leitzins falls nötig sogar bis auf null verringern könnte. Bisher waren Ökonomen und Märkte davon ausgegangen, dass die Notenbank bei 0,75 Prozent eine psychologische Grenze sieht.

Sorge um Haushaltsdefizit

Greenspan sorgt sich zudem um das hohe Defizit im US-Haushalt: "Ich bin sehr besorgt, dass uns die Staatsausgaben wieder entgleiten, nach dem wir sie vor einer Dekade in den Griff bekommen haben. Wenn wir den Prozess nicht umdrehen, stehen wir vor großen ökonomischen Problemen." Das US-Etatdefizit wird nach Prognosen der Regierung in diesem Fiskaljahr auf 455 Mrd. $ steigen, teilte das Weiße Haus mit - es ist dies der höchste Stand in der Geschichte der USA. Im nächsten Jahr werde der Fehlbetrag sogar auf 475 Mrd. $ klettern.

Der Fehlbetrag liegt rund 50 Prozent über den Schätzungen, die die Bush-Regierung vor fünf Monaten veröffentlicht hatte. Grund dafür sind höhere Verteidigungs- und Sicherheitsausgaben, Steuersenkungen und die schwache Konjunktur in den USA. Der schlechte Etat erhöht nach Einschätzung der Volkswirte von Goldman Sachs die Gefahr langfristig steigender Zinsen. Dies würde die Wirtschaftsdynamik dämpfen.

© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/bm/an/1058101414688.html?nv=cptn

Aus der FTD vom 16.7.2003 www.ftd.de/kapital

Das Kapital:

Alan Greenspan wird nachgerade hemmungslos

Die wirklich hinreißende Rede von Alan Greenspan scheinen nur die Bondanleger richtig verstanden zu haben (wahrscheinlich haben auch nur die sie gelesen). Dabei lässt sie sich doch in drei Worte fassen: Alles wird gut.

Die hemmungslos unverklausulierte Botschaft an die Finanzmärkte ist noch einfacher: Aktien kaufen - am besten mit frisch gedrucktem Geld, das die Fed nur zu gerne und überreichlich zur Verfügung stellt. An den Rentenmärkten darf man vielleicht ein bisschen vorsichtiger werden. Zu nervös indes sollte man auch dort nicht werden. Schließlich drohen die bösen Iraker, die Japaner und die Deutschen, das solide Fundament des Landes doch noch zu beschädigen und es in die Deflation zu stürzen. Ja, hat denn dieser Mann nichts von dem überaus zuverlässigen ZEW-Indikator mitgekriegt?



Dass die Deflation nur ein paar Monate, nachdem Greenspan die Rentenmärkte geradezu in Aufruhr versetzte, nunmehr quasi nur noch in einer Fußnote auftaucht, hat schon einen gewissen Charme. Bemerkenswert ist aber natürlich vor allem, dass der Notenbankchef die Bilanzen von Firmen und Verbrauchern plötzlich als quasi gesund betrachtet, sodass die Wirtschaft 2004 um bis zu 4,75 Prozent wachsen mag. Nirgendwo habe sich das deutlicher gezeigt als in den Bilanzen der Haushalte. Während die Aktivseite wegen steigender Aktien- und Hauspreise sowie auf Grund von Portfolio-Umschichtungen mächtig zulegte, hat die Passivseite von der enormen Immobilienrefinanzierungswelle profitiert, weswegen die Schuldenlast gesunken ist. Alles in allem ist das Nettovermögen der Haushalte im ersten Halbjahr also um 4,5 Prozent gewachsen.

Ähnlich sieht es bei den Firmen aus, die ihre Schulden restrukturiert haben und deren Zinslast im Verhältnis zum Netto-Cashflow spürbar zurückgegangen ist. Zu den extrem expansiven monetären Bedingungen kommt das Fiskalprogramm, das Greenspan nunmehr gelegen zu kommen scheint und den Haushalten allein im laufenden Quartal 35 Mrd. $ bringen soll. Sobald die noch uneinsichtigen Manager den zu erwartenden Nachfrageschub als nachhaltig empfinden, werden sie auch investieren und einstellen.

Alles das stimmt eindeutig, und es wird den Aufschwung geben.

Aber kein Wort darüber, dass der Refinanzierungsboom nicht ewig währen kann, dass die Schulden der Haushalte im Verhältnis zu den Einkommen höher sind als je zuvor, dass die Finanzverbindlichkeiten der Kapitalgesellschaften im Vergleich zu dem von ihnen erzielten BIP fast auf Rekordniveau verharrt sind, dass die derzeitige Kreditexpansion nachhaltig untragbar wäre, dass die Gesamtwirtschaft netto fast nichts mehr spart und dass Aktien- wie Hauspreise nach konventionellen Kennzahlen schon unbezahlbar teuer sind. Was es da wohl bedeuten würde, wenn die Zinsen dereinst wieder anzögen? Die Leitsätze werden in der Tat noch sehr, sehr lange niedrig bleiben.


© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland , © Illustration: FTD

[ThaiGuru]

July 15 - Gold $341.80, down $5.60 - Silver $4.64 down 14 cents

Greenspan Speaks, Bonds COLLAPSE, So Gold Walloped????

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehood and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. the object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited"--George Soros

Once again we are reminded of the importance of understanding the most basic of market principles. The Gold Cartel uses it as part of its strategy to manipulate the price of gold and to rip off the investing public:

Price Action Makes Market Commentary

Gold was acting well, up $1.50 with the dollar slightly weaker, when Alan Greenspan took the podium to make a presentation in front of the US House of Representatives in his semi-annual report on the economy.

NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - COMEX gold held mostly firmer Tuesday morning on the back of a strong euro, but traders were reluctant to take big positions as they digested testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on the U.S. economy.

The dollar fell against major currencies after Greenspan said he was ready to keep interest rates low for a "considerable" period to boost the economy to guard against a possible fall in prices. –END-

That was the first take. Then, The Gold Cartel did their thing around 10 as Greenspan got a little further into his presentation to Congress:

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is poised to accelerate and the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates low ``for as long as necessary`` to ensure that happens, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said.

The Fed`s policy making Open Market Committee last month cut the benchmark overnight bank lending rate to a 45-year low of 1 percent and will cut again if growth doesn`t pick up, Greenspan said in the text of testimony to the House Banking and Financial Services Committee.

``The FOMC stands prepared to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for as long as needed to promote satisfactory economic performance,`` Greenspan said, a point he made twice in the text.

``Policy accommodation aimed at raising the growth of output, boosting the utilization of resources, and warding off unwelcome disinflation can be maintained for a considerable period without ultimately stoking inflationary pressures,`` he said. –END-

Price Action Makes Market Commentary

First the specter of low interest rates was bearish for the dollar, then The Working Group on Financial Markets showed up and it became bullish for the dollar.

Greenspan’s commentary was gold bullish if there ever was any and very bearish for bonds. Bonds took their cue and continued their collapse under the ever-increasing weight of an exploding money supply and a sign from the Fed it will go all out to invigorate the faltering US economy. The bond vigilantes see what’s coming loud and clear:

Bonds blew through their 200-day moving average at 113 11/32, closing at 112 3/32.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

The Fed can only do so much to control the massive bond market. Moving the gold and dollar markets is another matter for the ESF/Fed in the short-term. Can there be any other explanation for the dollar to soar (97.22, up .85) and for gold to be trashed except for market intervention by the US? Don’t tell me the dollar ran up because of wondrous economic expectations. Greenspan’s focus in his presentation was on keeping short-term rates as they are or even lowering them. That does not suggest the Fed forecasting a vibrant economy.

Gold`s failure to make new highs after yesterday’s sharply higher opening turned out to be pivotal. There is a reason for that. The Gold Cartel steps in and says "no mas!" Then . . . cap, cap, cap and wait to bomb gold the next day. How many times have I reported this sort of maneuver to The Café? `Bout a zillion times!

The bad news was most of us lost money today in our gold investments. The good news is the stage is clearly set for a gold price EXPLOSION. Not last week, unlikely this week, but one IS coming and it’s not far off.

For a day like today to occur, the ESF and Fed have to be desperate. There is no other explanation for gold to be trashed and for the dollar to soar when record budget deficits are announced and the bond market collapses. With the bonds swooning, the US powers felt compelled to move on gold and the dollar to prevent an all out panic. Think of the money that has been lost in the bond market rout the past few weeks.

A few notes:

*Kiss the housing market goodbye. That bubble will break shortly and put a severe crimp in the US economy.

*Where was our central banker on the grossly escalating federal budget deficits? Keeping silent that`s where. Oh yes, he did say the Fed was going to keep short rates down until the economy picks up, no matter how long it takes. The US now has government spending out of control and a Fed that is out of control. Great combination.

*Stress at Treasury and the Fed must be extremely high. It becomes clearer by the day what some of the reasons might be why Under Treasury Secretary Peter Fisher quit.

* Today was more anecdotal proof the gold price is grossly manipulated. As oft-said here, the more bullish an economic event or announcement is for gold, the more the cabal crushes it.

*Wonder what the venerable Richard Russell will write tonight? Bonds were slaughtered as investors fear Fed fueled inflation. Gold was slaughtered as investors fear Fed’s concerns over deflationary pressures???????

*Money coming out of the bond market has got to go some place. Money markets, the DOG, real estate? All lousy choices. The obvious one is gold.

*Two highly regarded money managers called today in complete disgust over the blatant gold price manipulation!
*Gold put in an outside day key reversal to the downside.


*How about that 10-year note. It blew through 3.75% to close at 3.99%.

*The US government announced it expects our Nation`s budget deficit to rise to $455 billion, up 50% since the February calculations. What will it be by year-end?

*August gold closed exactly on its 200-day moving average.

The gold fundamentals continue to improve. Unfortunately, they mean little in a rigged market. Gold will only go sharply higher when the crooks run out of available gold supply to carry out their scheme, OR are overpowered by financial events –

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Shades of 1987? Then, investors paid little attention to falling dollar. Today, they are paying little attention to sharply rising interest rates. The DOW came back late as usual, falling only 48 to 9128. The DOG can’t wait to scream ahead tomorrow, dropping a scant 1 to 1753. The S&P is 5 higher in after hours trading.

This important document is a must read and should be carefully considered:

George Tenet`s Mea Culpa Over Forged Niger Docs Backfires
Bush Shot From the Lip
Media and Political Response Swift and Merciless
Cheney and Rice Move Into the Crosshairs

BLOOD IN THE WATER

Watergate II

by Michael C. Ruppert

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/071503_watergate_I…

A smidgen of good economic news:

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, paced by purchases of building materials, furniture and apparel, a government report showed, bolstering expectations the economy will accelerate in coming months.

Sales rose 0.5 percent during the month to $310.4 billion, after no change in May, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding automobiles, sales increased 0.7 percent last month following a 0.1 percent gain.
A 23 percent rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since a March low, discounted merchandise and low borrowing costs are fueling spending. Tax rebate checks to be mailed out weeks from now and smaller income tax deductions may give households the wherewithal to keep buying and help propel the economy, economists said. –END-

The big picture looks bleaker and bleaker, however:

From The King Report:

[e-mail]
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Tuesday July 15, 2003 – Issue 2726

"Independent View of the News"

The Oakland Tribune’s Rebecca Vesely reports California health clinics are on ‘pins and needles’ because the state’s Medi-Cal funding will run out with in a month if no new budget is passed. Last week, "Gov. Davis allocated $727m to Tuesday to ensure no immediate lapses in Medi-Cal reimbursements to clinics, hospitals and nursing homes. But the state has only about $2 billion total left in its coffers for Medi-Cal -- the health insurance program for 6 million low-income residents. Medi-Cal is one of the state`s largest programs, with a budget last fiscal year of nearly $30 billion."

The San Diego Union Tribune’s Rachel Laing writes California’s workers’ compensation fund is in crisis. "Employers in the state pay an average of $5.23 per $100 of payroll, by far the highest rate in the nation…Yet while California has the highest premiums in the nation, its injured workers receive some of the lowest benefits. And insurers say they are losing about 22 cents for every premium dollar they receive." There’s a lot of ‘vig’ in socialist programs. Articles last week noted that businesses are fleeing CA because of increased costs being place on businesses to subsidize its out-of-control socialist spending….

In Monday’s NY Times, UBS accounting analyst David Bianco states, "The quality of earnings for the S&P 500, from an accounting standpoint, is the worst it has been in more than a decade." This makes the current absurd valuations even more egregious. The Nasdaq 100 is nearing a 250 PE on trailing earnings and 40X forecast earnings…Analysts see tech earnings up 54% in Q3…

The Asia Time’s John Berthelsen reports, "…Asia has been quietly running up an absolutely staggering surplus of US dollars. By the end of 2003, according to JP Morgan Chase economists in Hong Kong, the combined countries of Asia are expected to hold an astonishing 70 percent of the world`s currency reserves... China, whose share of exports in total gross domestic product (GDP) averaged 10.8 percent in 1985-89, now is producing exports at 28.4 percent of GDP. South Korea`s exports were at 23 percent during the same period and now are at 54 percent of GDP. Hong Kong, then at 77.8 percent, is now at 153.5 percent of GDP… The US Federal Reserve`s easy-money policy and record cuts in interest rates, however, have kept consumers buying at a feverish pace, far too often on credit."

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal Reserve added $9Billion in overnight repos today. This leaves the repo pool total at $29.25­still below its moving average of about $32Billion. Therefore the MA will be pressed down again, removing funds from the Fed`s open market pool.

At this writing [10:30AM] the DOW is down a bit. The Repurchase Agreement Hypothesis [As see in the repo pool total moving average] suggests that the DOW will commence a gradual turn back to 7,500 to be reached around Labor Day.

The DOW continues to hover very close to its moving average instead of running well above it as in the past. Again, this indicates that the forces acting to keep the DOW moving upwards have exhausted themselves. I believe those forces to be mainly the Fed`s repo pool.
Mike

Received a quick note and call from John Brimelow who is enjoying a well deserved vacation:

Refco remarks - my italics

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Stay long 2 August gold from 343. Risk close under 340 and expect 355."

"Precious metals futures ended mixed on Tuesday with silver under particular stress. Trading action was active. August gold opened $1.10 to the up-side in line with overnight softness in the dollar. From open on the COMEX, COMEX gold succumbed to dealer short selling. Impetus came from an early failure by August gold to break resistance at 349, supplemented later by a positive reception to Chairman Greenspan’s Senate testimony. Sell stops were triggered near 347 and 342 (basis August), accelerating gold’s slide. August gold settled at 342.2 (down $5.60 cents). Estimated volume was a 60,000 contracts"

"Gold futures continue to take their cues from the dollar, which found more than US equities in Chairman Greenspan’s Senate remarks. Tuesday’s dollar action aside, we still think the Fed’s willingness to keep rates low is a plus for gold. Low US rates detract from the dollar when yield comparisons are made to other currencies. Further, low rates reduce the attractiveness to gold producers of hedging activity. We can’t help wonder whether the Fed will be haunted by its remarks that policy could remain accommodative for a considerable period of time without ultimately stoking inflationary pressures."

(Very unusual for R to stipulate short selling. NB they are sticking with their long.)

JB

Chuck checks in with some goodies:

The downside is that we have had NEM gap up two days in a row and sell off. It probably means we will have to wait a little for the break out. But the overall market is getting very heavy and sharply higher rates is not factored in the enthusiasm. Good bye refinancing!

One other thing. I read in CBS Marketwatch just now that "as soon as Greenspan began to speak" the gold market fell. We`re not the only ones aware.

Finally, why is it that the largest moves in gold appear to be made on Tuesdays? Last week down, and the week before us $5.00. But this has been a recurring pattern which coincides with the reporting of the COTS.

Here`s the exact quote. I have the feeling that we are seeing the last reaction to the strength of the dollar. Bob Hoye whom I am very impressed with has been looking for a 97 rallying point and then the resumption of the dollar sell off. There is no way the Chairman is going to allow the bond market to collapse and not try another creative maneuver.

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Gold stocks turned broadly lower Tuesday, following the direction of the benchmark futures contract as traders reacted to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan`s testimony on Capitol Hill

One more note. The 30 year bond has now dropped almost 4 points since yesterday. When gold starts to reverse, we`ll be in it. Highest TICKS in many months. One day soon instead of rallying on the close, we`ll have a massive sell off.

Gold and interest rates measure the worth of paper. In the 70`s both rates and gold skyrocketed. I would like to be a fly on the wall in the emergency Fed meeting. Chuck

Another must read for Café members at The Matisse Table:

AN INTERVIEW WITH GATA SECRETARY-TREASURER CHRIS POWELL REPRINTED FROM J TAYLOR’S GOLD & TECHNOLOGY STOCKS NEWSLETTER, JULY 8, 2003

By Jay Taylor, Editor

Funny one from the gold industry analyst group GFMS, apologists for bullion bankers and the big hedgers:

Dear Sir/Madam,

Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) will be moving to new premises on July 16th.
Our new address is:
Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS)
Hedges House
153-155 Regent Street
London
W1B 4JE
United Kingdom


The gold shares were annihilated. The HUI dropped a sizeable 8.23 to 143.61 and the XAU fell 3.66 to 74.78.

The HUI broke down out of its wedge formation instead of up and also broke its long running up-trend.

What changed in a day? The gold fundamentals got better. However, the technicals for both gold and the shares have now broken down. If the gold market were not rigged, it could have been a big deal. In this case, I don’t think so. After some cleaning out of weak longs, the gold shares ought to be charging ahead again.

MIDAS

Appendix

An angry Café member writes his Congressman:

Dear Mike -

I am an investor in and follower of the precious metals market.

For the last several years, it is clear that the price of gold and silver have been manipulated. Careful examination of the price action of these metals over this time period (at least 4 years) and compared to normal price action over the previous 100 years, provides the basis for this conclusion.

Many professional traders and market analysts, that are exceedingly well versed in such action (regardless of the commodity) are convinced of this manipulation.

I am a small, non-professional investor and it is even clear to me. Today`s action was the final straw that forces me to write to you as a member of the Commerce committee.

Please take a moment and look at the price action of both gold and silver in today`s market. (Charts are available at www.kitco.com). You will see that both silver and gold were hit hard at precisely the same time of day.

Coincidence? Hardly, as this type of activity has occurred many times before.

The evidence suggests that the federal government, through several of its agencies, is playing this game in order to stabilize the dollar. Regardless of the objective, this type of intervention is clearly anti-trust activity
operating to the detriment of all investors - probably world wide.

This is a very complex subject and I would not blame you for not wanting to get involved however, the investors of this country are being raped by out government and/or a combine of it and the major investment banks.

I am a member of a group of investors named "Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee". It is headed by Mr. Bill Murphy of Dallas, Texas. The organization operates a web site named www.lemetropolecafe.com and it provides daily evidence, as viewed by scholars and investors worldwide, of
the ongoing manipulation. If you would like further information on this topic, feel free to make your initial contact through this web site. I am positive he would like to answer any of your questions and provide whatever
evidence you might seek.

Mike - PLEASE TAKE SOME ACTION ON THIS! This topic has many negative international ramifications. We citizens need a champion. Will you be him?

As always, I deeply appreciate your activities on behalf of veterans and their families.

Thanks Mike,

Fred F
Trinity, FL
Vet. of WWII

An upbeat note from another vet….Café member:

Dear Bill,

I wanted to write a brief note to say that I am meeting with a lot of success telling the gold story to new prospects. More and people are frustrated with the news of the indices going up and their mutual funds lagging. People want to invest again, but I believe as individual share owners, no longer willing to put their faith in fund manager that lose them money. I think this is great news for the gold community, as gold investors are the definition of self reliant investors. I opened an account for a Doctor with a portfolio of funds and promptly sold them to net $160,000.00 after rear end fees (down from $300,000): today 18 months later her account is $230,000.00 and the gold shares she owns are doing a lot of the work. RNG-T GSC-T ELD-T MAE-T and NRI-T are all up very nicely as you have pointed out so often. While I won`t be written up as the next Warren Buffet I am proud of that account, and others that are doing well with careful purchases of quality unhedged gold and silver shares for a part of their portfolios.

As always Thank-you for your work. If the old adage holds "trade a bear" and "invest in a bull", still holds water, and I believe it does, gold bulls will be rewarded further and days like today are good days.
Kindest Regards John

MORE ON MANIPULATIONS:

16 words and counting

By Nicholas D. Kristof
Op-ed Columnist, New York Times

After I wrote a month ago about the Niger uranium hoax in the State of the Union address, a senior White House official chided me gently and explained that there was more to the story that I didn`t know.

Yup. And now it`s coming out.

Based on conversations with people in the intelligence community, this picture is emerging: the White House, eager to spice up the State of the Union address, recklessly resurrected the discredited Niger tidbit. The Central Intelligence Agency objected, and then it and the National Security Council negotiated a new wording, attributing it all to the Brits. It felt less dishonest pinning the falsehood on the cousins.

What troubles me is not that single episode, but the broader pattern of dishonesty and delusion that helped get us into the Iraq mess -- and that created the false expectations undermining our occupation today. Some in the administration are trying to make George Tenet the scapegoat for the affair. But Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, a group of retired spooks, issued an open letter to President Bush yesterday reflecting the view of many in the intel community that the central culprit is Vice President Dick Cheney. The open letter called for Mr. Cheney`s resignation.

Condi Rice says she first learned of former Ambassador Joseph Wilson`s fact-finding trip to Niger during a TV interview, presumably when George Stephanopoulos asked her on "This Week" on June 8 about a column by me describing the trip. (Condi, you`re breaking my heart -- you didn`t read that column itself? How about if I fax you copies of everything I write, so you don`t miss any, and you fax me everything you write?)

Actually, I have to agree with Ms. Rice that the focus on that single sentence in the State of the Union address is a bit obsessive. It was only 16 words, attributed in a weaselly way that made it almost accurate, and as any journalist knows well, mistakes do get into print.

So the problem is not those 16 words, by themselves, but the larger pattern of abuse of intelligence. The silver lining is that the spooks are so upset that they`re speaking out.

The Defense Intelligence Agency has had town hall meetings in which everyone was told not to talk to journalists (thanks, guys, for naming me in particular). One insider complains: "In the most recent meeting, we also were told that, as much as possible, we should avoid `caveat-ing` our intelligence assessments. . . . Forget nuance, forget fine distinctions; they only confuse these guys. If that isn`t a downright scary dumbing-down of our intelligence product, I don`t know what is."

Intelligence isn`t just being dumbed down, but is also being manipulated -- and it`s continuing. Experts say the recent firefight on the Syrian-Iraq border involved not Saddam Hussein or a family member, as we were led to believe, but just some Iraqi petroleum smugglers. Moreover, Patrick Lang, a former senior D.I.A. official, says that many in the government believe that incursion was an effort by ideologues to disrupt cooperation between the U.S. and Syria.

While the scandal has so far focused on Iraq, the manipulations appear to be global. For example, one person from the intelligence community recalls an administration hard-liner`s urging the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research to state that Cuba has a biological weapons program. The spooks refused, and Colin Powell backed them.

Then there`s North Korea. The C.I.A.`s assessments on North Korea`s nuclear weaponry were suddenly juiced up beginning in December 2001. The alarmist assessments (based on no new evidence) continued until January of this year, when the White House wanted to play down the Korean crisis. Then assessments abruptly restored the less ominous language of the 1990`s.

The latest issue of the Naval War College Review describes the ambiguities of the North Korean uranium program and argues that U.S. officials "opted to exploit the intelligence for political purposes."

"Is there a parallel with what is now going on, after the fact, in estimates about Iraq?" asked the article`s author, Jonathan Pollack, chairman of the Strategic Research Department of the Naval War College, in an interview. "I think there may be."

So that chiding White House official was right: there was more to the picture. But I`m afraid the bigger the picture gets, the more it looks like a pattern of dishonesty.

Nicholas D. Kristof is an op-ed columnist for the New York Times.

How will the disappearing bond market affect Freddie Mac in the weeks and months ahead?

Forbes.com
July 15, 2003

NEW YORK - The recent disclosure that Freddie Mac will have to put back some $6.5 billion in gains from its derivative operations is not the good news story it pretends. This was not a case of sloppy record keeping or intentional earnings misstatement, but rather their normal accounting practice before the Enron and Worldcom scandals came to light. The people in charge of Freddie didn`t get their walking papers for such prudence, but rather, for the imprudence that generated this bounty. In short, they took huge gambles in derivatives beyond the level needed to hedge their mortgage holdings and then held back some of the profits from this as a hedge against events turning against them.

Their exposure here is to hedge contracts valued at over $1 trillion, hence $6.5 billion is a small reserve should interest rates begin rising. The concern is that if rates rise, Freddie (nyse: FRE - news - people ) could implode much like the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund or the Orange County investment fund. Only this time, the fallout could cause a system-wide financial panic.

Freddie is like a huge ship plowing through icebergs. The market thinks the Treasury standby credit facility will keep them safe, but it is actually the Federal Reserve Bank that is acting like an icebreaker for them. Their recent pronouncements on keeping interest

rates low, even in the face of strong economic growth, is probably designed to forestall a devastating loss at Freddie. (Don`t believe the Fed`s cover story about being concerned over deflation; their real concern is too scary for public consumption).

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal pointed out that Freddie`s derivative position is so massive, it is impossible to unwind except over an extended period of time. Meanwhile, the accounting recognition of the $6.5 billion in reserves is equivalent to the ship throwing its bilge pumps overboard while Congress and the regulators are busy rearranging the deck chairs.

Investors who see opportunity in Freddie Mac should think again. The reserves are gone and the order of the day is wind down exposure. This is not a formula for earnings growth. If a booming stock market starts to drive up interest rates, all bets on Freddie are off. My advice to bondholders is reduce your exposure to high-yield bonds. This is where any Freddie fallout will strike first. This market is overbought anyway and due for a correction no matter how Freddie plays out.

As a former CPA with a former big eight accounting firm, I am all too familiar with the type of reserve accounting Freddie Mac was practicing. Managers would rather be squirrels than bears when it comes to preparing for and suffering through the inevitable winter season. Despite all the hoopla for accounting transparency, I prefer a manager who is a squirrel and Freddie Mac`s managers squirreled away profits during good times. Now regulators are forcing them to act more like bears--consume all profits when they occur and hope they can survive during bad times. I know from experience that accounting is more art than science. Dishonest managers will abuse it no matter what the rules are.

-END-

FT.com

UK economy `in uncharted territory`

By Lydia Adetunji Published: July 15 2003 12:57 | Last Updated: July 15 2003

Consumption growth is likely to be slower in coming years than it has been of late, new Bank of England governor Mervyn King said on Tuesday.

Giving evidence before the UK parliament`s treasury select committee, Mr King said there was likely to be a switch in resources from private to public consumption. And the growth of demand and output in coming years was likely to be less smooth than over the past five, he said.

The Bank cut interest rates to their lowest level in almost five decades last week. Mr King said he had "no idea" if 3.5 per cent was exactly the right level. However, he added that he did not expect more volatile interest rates in the next few years.

Many analysts have argued that the Bank`s projections for growth this year have been too optimistic. Mr King said there were risks in both directions to current central forecasts for the UK economy.

Mr King said the timing of a pickup in business investment was uncertain. He said he did not know what would happen to exchange rates, but did not want to see either a stronger or a weaker euro.

Although Mr King said the monetary policy committee "does not seek to manage the exchange rate in any way", he said that if the effective exchange rate rose, the committee would take it into account.

Mr King said inflation could well move from being above target to below target in the short-run.

Rachel Lomax, the new deputy governor of the Bank also appeared before the committee. She said Britain was in "uncharted territory" with inflation at current rates.

However, she added: "I think it would require a major negative demand shock to take us into serious deflation territory."

Ms Lomax said she did not think it had been too timid over the past two years.

"One thing that struck me is how far interest rates have come down in the last two-three years. What the impact of that will be, I don`t know," she said. "But it has come down from 6.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent. I regard that as quite bold."

Asked what concerns were on her mind at the moment, Ms Lomax said: "Anyone with my experience is going to be worried about current levels of debt and the housing market."

She said she hoped the housing market was cooling off, and that house prices would rise more slowly in future.

Ms Lomax added that as house price inflation slowed, the gap between the RPIX inflation measure - the one targeted by the Bank - and HICP, the measure it plans to switch over to, would narrow.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Eine wichtige Meldung zur Börse in Thailand!

Der SET Index hat heute morgen, zwei mal die wichtige 500 Punkte Hürde genommen, und zur Mittagspause 500.28 Punkte erreicht, damit wurde dieser Index Stand, seit 1996 zum erstenmal wieder erreicht!

Falls die 500 Punkte bis zum Börsenschluss heute Nachmittag halten, dürfte ab spätestens morgen Donnerstag höchst wahrscheinlich ein neuer Bull Run am SET ausgelöst werden. Falls der SET die 500 Punkte heute nicht halten kann, bleibt es auf jedenfall weiter spannend, und auch volatil.

Tages-Chart:



3 Monats-Chart: (exklusiv heutiger Anstieg)



5 Jahres-Chart: (exklusiv heutiger Anstieg)

[silverpwd]

Ich tippe mal leider drauf, das Thailand zusammen mit den Weltindizes korrigieren wird.
Der nachhaltige Sprung über 500 wird vermutlich erst zum Ende des Jahres gelingen, da Thailand aber für mich ein längerfristiges Investment ist und man sich nie so sicher sein kann, bleibe ich investiert und werde einen potenziellen Rückschlag für Nachkäufe nutzen.

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

Da kannst Du sogar richtig liegen mit Deiner Ansicht zum SET Index. Nur heute hat es am nachmittag hingehauen. Die 500 sind genommen, bei 19420 Millionen Thai Bath Umsatz.

Ob es morgen gleich weitergeht wird sich zeigen, zumindest bei Eröffnung dürfte der SET bei stärkeren Umsätzen als heute, weiter anziehen.

Wie es scheint bin ich etwas zuversichtlicher als Du, dass es vorderhand mit dem SET weiter hoch geht, da dieser Anstieg auch fundamental untermauert ist, und der SET im Vergleich mit den USA Börsen immer noch geradezu billig ist. Zudem wird Thailand dieses Jahr vermutlich trotz SARS ein Wirtschaftswachstum zwischen 5 und 6% vorweisen können.
Die Autoindustrie boomt, die Bauindustrie floriert, die Textilindustrie in Thailand steht vor einem Turnaround, den Finanz, und Leasing Gesellschaften rennen die Kunden die Türen ein. (Alles auf Kredit) Die Banken sehen langsam wieder Licht am Ende des Tunnels. Thailand ist SARS frei, und die Tourismusindustrie kommt nach dem grossen Einbruch, langsam aber sicher wieder auf Touren. Thailand bietet auch so viel für`s Geld, wie selten zuvor. Die Zinsen sind für Thai Verhältnisse auf einem sehr tiefen Nivau, und die Thais beginnen sich gerade wieder in die nächste Bubble rein zu kaufen. Bis die neue Bubble platzen wird, dürfte aber noch einige Zeit verstreichen, sodass der SET Index noch einiges ansteigen kann bis es soweit ist.

Und es kommt gerade aus dem Ausland Geld rein nach Thailand, sehr viel Geld sogar!

Die Thais investieren vermehrt wieder an der Börse, weil sie im Gegensatz zur Bank, die nur noch 0.75% Zinsen bezahlt, bei sehr vielen am SET notierten Firmen, Dividendenrenditen von 5% bis 10%, oder noch mehr erwarten können. Zudem ist der Thai Bath unterbewetet, vor allem gegenüber dem Euro, aber auch dem Dollar, sodass viele Auslands Investoren aus dieser Richtung zusätzliches Potenzial sehen.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Die Goldminen Aktie *THL* die seit meiner "Strong Buy" Kaufempfehlung in diesem, und auch in meinem Thread im Asien Board, nach nur ca. 2 Monaten von ca. 1.51 THB auf heute bereits 2.42 THB, also happige 60.26% gestiegen ist, dürfte innerhalb der nächsten 10 Tage, die 100% Plus bei 3.- THB testen. Preisziel *THL* für dieses Jahr bleibt für mich nach wie vor, mindestens ca. 4.50 THB pro Aktie.

Gruss

ThaiGuru