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[Cyberhexe]

Elan (ELN US)
Previous close: 420c

Cost-cutting plans to eclipse lower Q1 outturn
[e-mail]

Results summary ($m) Q1 Q1 Variance Q1 Chg
2005A 2005F vs forecast 2004 yoy (%)

Total revenues 102.7 129.0 –20.4% 148.3 –30.7%
EBITDA (as reported) –95.9 –65.8 N/M –20.6 N/M
EPS (c ) (as reported) –40.0* –31.0 N/M –16.0 N/M

Davy estimate

• Compared to our forecasts, Elan`s Q1 revenues are lower by $26m and actual EBITDA losses are $30m larger than
expected. The principal reasons for the revenue miss are lower product revenues from Maxipime and Azactam—short-term
supply shortages and wholesaler inventory levels were cited as the respective reasons. Research revenues were also lower
than our forecast, and Prialt came in at $1m versus our $4m forecast. Contract manufacturing and royalties were better than
expected.
• Operating costs were in line with forecast, so the lower revenues translated to higher operating and EBITDA losses. Of the
$95.9m in EBITDA losses, $60.1m was related to Tysabri. We estimate adjusted loss per share, excluding the gain on
Zonegran, at approximately 40c.
• No detailed update on the Tysabri patient review was provided in the statement. We do not expect Elan to release too
much detail on progress in the conference call, judging by Biogen`s comments in its call last night. Biogen noted that it
expected to complete the review "during late summer".
• On Elan`s costs guidance, the guided EBITDA losses for 2005 are reduced from a range of $320–360m (excluding Tysabri
revenues), to $240–260m (including Tysabri revenues in Q1 of $12.9m). Total revenue now guided to over $500m (including
Tysabri), compared to $460–490m previously (excluding Tysabri). On a like-for-like basis, the company has identified circa
$100m of cost-cutting, and underlying revenue guidance is now at the upper end of the previous range.
• Cost-cutting will most likely be focussed on existing businesses, which Elan believes can reach EBITDA breakeven in their
own right by the end of 2005. As we flagged, further adjustments to cost structure are possible depending on fate of
Tysabri.
• In summary, although Q1 was below forecasts Elan remains committed to 2005 revenue guidance and has undertaken
sizeable cost-cutting measures to reduce near-term losses. This leads to a consequent $100m reduction in forecast cash-burn
to its own guided figure of about $250m. This is a positive though expected step ahead of further visibility on fate of Tysabri.
• Conference call will be held at 13.30 (Ireland/UK time) at 800-720-9457 (US participants), and + 1-415-904-7369
(international).

[Euwaxtrader]

kann mal jemand kurz zusammenfassen

Danke

[Cyberhexe]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050428/ireland_elan.html?.v=1

...wir reden über Monate nicht über Jahre...d.h. die Entscheidung über den Relaunch wird noch in diesem Jahr erwartet.

"But he said Tysabri in trials had proven itself to be "extremely efficacious and powerful" in blocking relapses for sufferers of MS, which causes sudden partial paralysis. He forecast that Elan, Biogen Idec and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration would "find a way to put this drug back in the hands of patients where it rightly belongs."

When asked when he expected Tysabri to return to the market, he said, "We`re talking months as opposed to years." >>



Ungeachtet dessen will Elan an der Kostenschraube drehen, so dass das Unternehmen bis Ende des Jahres EBITDA-positiv sein möchte.
Etwas zu den Verkaufserlösen:
Prialt lediglich 1 Mio$ - also sehr schleppender Beginn
Azactam und Maxipime - stagnierend (durch Sondereffekte sogar negativ)
Lizenzgebühren jedoch von 30Mio$ auf 43.5 Mio$ gestiegen...dieser positive Trend wird sich fortsetzen


Bin auf die CC gespannt (heute 14.30h)