Adva Optical. Fakten, Daten, Hintergründe für unsere Pusher und Basher (Seite 1747)

[Groupier]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.811.761 von DoktorNO am 01.10.07 23:36:23

Ich bin bei ADVa bis auf weiteres weiter vorsichtig.
Das Potential war ja immer da.
Blos der dazupassende Aktienkurs im Vergleich zu den Ami-Wettbewerbern eher selten.

Und die fetten Ami-Instis Fidelity etc. die damals die JDSU Anteile übernommen haben sind immer noch nicht ganz raus.
Ich würde sagen die nehmen derzeit immer noch den hohen Eurokurs mit.
Und verkaufen weiter wenn sichs rechnet sogar unter 6 €uro.

[DoktorNO]

Noch ein schoener Artikel ueber Infinera... Wenn ich mir die Infinera Kennzahlen und Story anschaue, sehe ich nur noch einen Grund in ADVA zu investieren...

Gruss,
DNO

Minyanville
Infinera Corp's "Yeah Baby" Moment
Monday October 1, 10:30 am ET
By Fil Zucchi

One of the toughest things in this business is to match your investment thesis with the right company. We all have visions of “big opportunities” waiting to be exploited, but we rarely stumble on the perfect vehicle to exploit them. And then, once in a blue moon, you come across what you perceive to be “The Answer”; that company that you believe is right in the center of the next big thing. You have a “Yeah Baby!” moment. It’s a rare occurrence, and even when it happens there still remains the long road of execution, good management, and shear luck that needs to be traveled before the “Big Thing” becomes big money. This weekend I had a “Yeah Baby” moment.



I have been harping for a while that traffic on the IP network is about to suffer the fate of your typical Washington DC area commuter: gridlock at every corner, on your way to frustration station. If the on/off ramps and assorted intersections of the IP highway do not get some major upgrades soon, the traffic avalanche that is about to be unleashed will likely create disruptions that will bring front and center how the world’s business has become dependent on this new type of “transportation”.


The IP network is about as complex an ecosystem as they come, partly because there are so many disparate building blocks that maintaining compatibility is like putting together a puzzle where the shape of the image keeps changing. That’s why after I read pages 64-73 of Infinera Corp. (INFN) S-1 filing I had a “deja-vu all over again” to when I read Cypress Semi (CY) vision for SunPower (SPWR). Infinera’s Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) takes dozens of the small, tough to match, building blocks of the IP network and collapses them on one tiny, power / cost efficient, and smoothly working chip, the size of a baby’s fingernail. Layer some sophisticated traffic-management-software on top of it, and this has all the makings of a disruptive technology emerging just at the right time.


But enough on the techno-babble. Minyans can save that for their own Saturday night excitement. Instead I’ll offer my take on how the road from “Big Thing” to “Big Money” is haping up.


The Good


Revenues are ramping, and should continue to ramp very quickly as deferred revenue recognition contractual terms shrink from the 3-5 years time frame of older contracts, to the 1-year term of newer contracts. Estimates are for revenue growth of 24% Y/Y for ’08 and ’09.
The deferred revenue model, once it ramps, helps with forward visibility.
INFN’s software is a critical component of its products, and software inherently carries much higher margins than just hardware.
Level 3 Communications (LVLT) business – which accounted for 55% of revenues at the end of 2Q ’07 – probably carries somewhat lower margins, so new customers could further boost profitability.
80-85% of revenues come from N. America. A weaker dollar should help expansion in yet untapped international markets.
Big loss NOL carry-forwards will allow for cash flow meaningfully higher than GAAP EPS once profitability ramps.
INFN has positive cash flow from operations in 2Q ‘07.
INFN current PICs are first generation products, leaving plenty of room for improvements.
PIC’s cost advantage may open broadband delivery to less densely populated areas, creating new revenue opportunities for MSO’s and INFN.
There is a lot of competition in this space, but INFN controlled 30% of the market for 10 Gbps long-haul interface ports worldwide in 2006. Watch for Ciena (CIEN), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Cisco (CSCO) and Huawei Tech. as they are key threats.
INFN has some smart cookies as its largest shareholders: VC backer Kleiner Perkins, Marsico Funds, and Gilbert Gagnon Howe.
Only underwriters Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Bros. (LEH), and Thomas Weisel cover the stock, leaving plenty of room for others to jump on the bandwagon.


The Bad

55% of revenues came from LVLT at 6/07. That’s a lot of eggs in one basket and INFN must continue adding new customers in order to succeed and improve margin opportunities.
INFN needs to grow quickly to justify its 5.5x Price/12 Months Forward Revenues.
The low number of customers makes INFN’s business inherently lumpy quarter to quarter, which can create “disappointments” (or buying opportunities, depending on your outlook).
On an annual basis INFN awards stock options equivalent to approximately 5% of its outstanding shares. That’s a lot of dilution especially for an unproven public company.
Recently there was a warranty reserves spike due to a product problem. That’s not what you want to have as you start off as a public company looking to lasso new customers. It’s important for this issue to go away quickly.
INFN’s IPO cash is in short term investment grade instruments, and yet but its commercial paper suffered a $26k loss in 2Q ’07. The amount is trivial, the fact that such a loss occurred in the first place is not.
There is pending IP litigation, always an unknown for tech companies.



To Watch


INFN had 31 customers as of 2Q 10-Q, after adding 21 new ones over the prior twelve months. This is a critical metric as it also likely impacts margins.
Hardware-only sales must be kept to a minimum as they carry little if any margins.
Deferred revenue model offers visibility, but also makes collection on revenues more important. Watch DSO’s closely.
Latter dovetails with “customer acceptance period” which averaged 10 days in 2Q ’07. Worth keeping an eye on as well.
Lock-up expiration arrives on December 3. See “who” sells, and how much of the 51 mln locked-up shares are sold.
Watching the ratios in the little spreadsheet below may come in handy to judge INFN progress.

[DoktorNO]

@ all

habe das gute Gefuehl, dass wir vielleicht bald das Ende der Konsolidierung gesehen haben und wir uns mit relativ guten Q3 Zahlen wieder auf den Weg nach oben machen koennten. Bin also wieder voll an Board...

Anbei ein interessanter (etwas aelterer Artikel) ueber die Chancen mit Network Plays vom boomenden Kapazitaetsbedarf zu profitieren... (Schade, dass keiner ADVA kennt)

A Cyclical Play on the IP Network
Fil Zucchi Feb 19, 2007 8:31 pm

A potential lack of bandwidth may resurrect enthusiasm for companies that have languished at the bottom of the network barrel for years.


I’ve written a number of pieces about the companies that control the ever rising amount of data zooming around the internet, specifically Akamai (AKAM) and F5 Networks (FFIV) as they are the critical traffic cops at the most crowded junctures of the networks.

At some point though, no level of sophisticated software can make up for a potential lack of "bandwidth," be it in the core, the edge, or the access portion of the web. Carriers have not had to deal with such a problem so far because the overspending of the bubble years had created overcapacity as far as the eye could see. But things just might be beginning to change, and if/once they do, it may resurrect enthusiasm for companies that have languished at the bottom of the network barrel for years.

Triggers For This Potential Change

First is the rapid adoption of Fiber To The Premises (FTTP), thanks to the massive marketing push of the major carriers, Verizon (VZ), Bell South (BLS) and AT&T (T). The fact that VZ is beginning to fade its marketing of DSL suggests that FTTP has reached a point of no return, and will ultimately become the pipe of choice together with cable. If you have a chance to try out an FTTP service do it: it is the equivalent of going from 480i to 1080i High Def. It is really cool.

Second, much as iTunes changed the way music is delivered, something along the same lines is going to change the way high quality / commercial video is delivered, and when those video services are in full swing, their bandwidth demand will swamp what we are seeing right now.

Third, while there is still plenty of dark fiber at the very core of the network, all indications are that “metro networks,” the large systems that reside between the core and the edge are beginning to get crowded.

Given the current environment in the financial markets, chances are that once one or two companies in the space start talking up their business prospects, speculation will spread across all companies like wildfire. Let’s be honest, the Applied Micro’s (AMCC) of the world are still the companies that people are itching to buy, dreaming to sell them out in the triple digits. However, away from the dreams and temporary “BUYBUYBUY” induced price spikes, only a few companies will show bottom line results that will justifiably move the stock.

Finding the Right Stocks

I am using two criteria: First and most difficult, I am looking for companies highly concentrated in the area that should benefit the most from the coming network upgrades. Second, I am being relatively stingy with what I am willing to pay, because if I overpay and the fundies don’t pan out it will be mighty painful, and there likely won’t be a second chance for a long while. More diversified companies like Tellabs (TLAB), which I own only because it seems relatively cheap, may well benefit in some product lines only to get hurt in others.

In order of risk adjusted preference, my faves are: Juniper Networks (JNPR), MRV Communications (MRVC), Ciena (CIEN) and Avici (AVCI).

There’s no question that JNPR is in a dog fight with Cisco (CSCO), but it’s perhaps as close as I can get to a pure play in the space I want to be in. Once the network upgrades arrive JNPR will get its share and my sense is that there aren’t too many positive surprises built into the stock. Meanwhile the balance sheet provides a decent cushion should things not pan out.

MRVC was a much better buy in the low $3’s, when our friends at MS Howells suggested I revisit it. I’ve being following MRVC for a long time because of its products at the end-user side of the FTTP play. What I ignored is that it also has a meaningful presence in the “right” area of the network. There’s one major catch with MRVC: it sits way down the supply line. It supplies company ABC, which in turn supplies company DEF, which in turn... This means that the pricing pressures exerted by the carriers on their first tier suppliers get magnified as orders finally flow down to MRVC. If MRVC actually managed to turn revenues into profits the stock could catch a really sweet ride.

I like where CIEN sits. Its balance sheet is in good shape and the company is finally making money again. By all accounts its 4200 product is a great Metro Area Network tool. But its problem is that it still has the ball-and-chain drag of the “network backbone” products. Just thinking out loud, could the invisible catalyst come from the international markets? Unlike its past history, CIEN might end up being the winning “turtle” more so than the hare.

Last is AVCI. This is more an open ended call option play than an investment. Right now AVCI has only one customer, AT&T (T), to which it sells its hardware solution. Confident as it may be that T will stick around long enough for AVCI to reinvent itself, the single revenue source poses huge risks. The light at the end of the tunnel – assuming it is not a train – consists of a new software based traffic management solution currently under development. This will bring AVCI much closer to competing with the likes of FFIV, but the technology behind this new product – from what I understand of it - is very intriguing. If it pans out, AVCI revenues and profits could ramp very quickly, and/or AVCI could become sudden takeover bait. If you are thinking that this sounds like a roll of the dice, you are absolutely correct, and that’s why even after last Thursday’s 15% move, AVCI still trades at less than 2x net cash, and 1x projected ’07 sales.

Again Minyans, please keep in mind that these “stories” are predicated on what I perceive to be a coming boost in spending for certain areas of the networks which here-to-date have been left for dead. This process is certainly not going to be of a "secular" nature, but it should play out over several quarters, not a couple of months. Monitor closely the broad news regarding carriers’ capex spending, and if you don’t “see” the story, don’t force it.

[Groupier]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.785.030 von chrysagon am 29.09.07 12:11:16

Was ist den hier komisch

[Raunzer]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.785.030 von chrysagon am 29.09.07 12:11:16

Was wäre Börse, wenn man sie erklären könnte?

Mfg

[chrysagon]

erklärt mir mal einer diesen komischen intraday verlauf?????

[suse-1967]

nach dem Motto no risk no fun habe ich noch mal 1000st.nachgelegt bei einem Kurs von 6,00 Euro auf ein Jahr gerechnet habe ich die Hoffnung das es bis dahin aufwärts geht
mfg suse

[Raunzer]

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=134922

Mfg

[Raunzer]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.735.091 von Raunzer am 25.09.07 12:14:07

Da kann ich mein Geld ja gleich verbrennen wenn das so weitergeht.

[Raunzer]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.720.334 von Groupier am 24.09.07 12:56:43

http://www.advaoptical.com/default.aspx?id=610&releaseID=588

Wann kommen endlich mal News mit denen die Börse was anfangen kann? Die kostet erst mal bevor sie was bringt.

Mfg