Zertifikat auf den S&P Oil&Gas Drilling Index (WKN ABN2BZ) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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Die oil service companies haben im letzten halben Jahr stark von den gestiegenen Explorationsaufwendungen der Öl- und Gasfirmen profitiert und ihre Erträge gewaltig steigern können. Nach der Korrektur im Sept./Okt. dürfte jetzt wieder ein sehr attraktives Einstiegsniveau erreicht sein.

Wer hier investieren möchte, ohne sich dem Einzelwertrisiko auszusetzen, kann dies neuerdings mit dem Zertifikat auf den Oil&Gas Drilling Index tun. Eine Beschreibung findet sich im Zertifikate-Journal 29/04 vom 25.8.04.


Basiswert: S&P Supercomposite Oil & Gas DRILLING Index
Emittent: ABN Amro
WKN: ABN2BZ
Bezugsverhältnis: BZV: 1:10
Laufzeit: endlos
Börsenplätze: Frankfurt, Stuttgart, außerbörslich
Spread: 2,5%


ABN AMRO Bank N.V. ZT 04/OpenEnd S&P S.Oil&Gas Drilling

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Wie gut die Aussichten für die Drillers weiterhin sind, zeigt der folgende Offshore Rig Review:

Offshore Rig Review - November 9, 2004
Rigzone.com 11/8/2004
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=17868" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=17868

The Offshore Rig Review provides an overview of the past week`s upstream oil and gas industry news and an analysis of recent offshore rig movements and contract fixtures. The complete news articles, rig specifications and utilization reports can be found online at Rigzone.com. For the convenience of our reader`s links to the news reports and rig specifications mentioned here are included as footnotes.

Industry Trends
Worldwide mobile offshore rig demand continued to strengthen with current utilization up to 81% from 79.5% last week.

Crude oil prices closed last week at $49.60. According to Joe Duarte`s market report the key level to watch is the $48 area on the December and January crude futures.

Contracts
Smedvig lost a two month contract for its Tender rig T-3 when ConocoPhillips bailed out over operational liability contract terms but landed an 8 month contract with Petronas Cargali for its self-erecting tender, Teknik Berkat.

New construction, Retirements and Sales
The new build Maersk Inspirer left China on its way to the North Sea. The rig is contracted to ConocoPhillips through May of 2006.

Pride sold the Pride Illinois and Pride Kentucky jackups to Blake Offshore. The units will be converted to MOPUs. The $11 million sale price did not include the drilling machinery.

Noble Drilling exercised its option to purchase the Maersk Valiant and renamed it Noble David Tinsely. When shipyard work is complete the rig will begin an 18-month contract offshore Qatar for RasGas.

Coastal Drilling has taken delivery of its new build inland barge, Coastal Rig 21. The barge is a 3,000hp SCR rig. The rig is on its first contract with Watson Oil & Gas in Louisiana.

Rig Movements
Transocean is moving the Transocean Rather from Angola to the North Sea for new BP work West of Shetlands while the Noble Homer Ferrington departed the US Gulf enroute to Nigeria to start an 18-month contract for ExxonMobil.

Transocean`s Sedco 600 completed its contract with BP in Russia and is enroute to Singapore. The rig has been sold to JCE Group AB of Sweden. The rig will be converted to a non-drilling multipurpose vessel and retired from the mobile offshore rig registry. Another Transocean rig, the JT Angel, completed a mob from Offshore India to Singapore. Following minor modifications and surveys the rig will be marketed for work in SE Asia.

Diamond Offshore`s Ocean Sovereign has left Singapore enroute for Bangladesh. The rig is committed to Cairn Energy for 3 wells.

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Hier einige nützliche Links:

1. Produktbeschreibung:
http://www.abn-zertifikate.de/pdf/documents/factsheet/Factsh…

2. Themenbroschüre Öl:
http://www.abn-zertifikate.de/pdf/documents/themebrochure/Th…

3. Kursabfrage:
http://www.rt.boerse-stuttgart.de/pages/search/main.html?sea…

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Der S&P Supercomposite Oil & Gas DRILLING Index besteht aus folgenden 10 Werten:

Titel / Gewichtung im Index
Transocean Inc. / 26,5%
Nabors Industries Ltd. / 17,3%
Noble Corp. / 14,7%
Ensco International Inc. / 11,6%
Patterson-Uti Energy Inc. / 7,7%
Pride International Inc. / 6,8%
Rowan Companies Inc. / 6,6%
Unit Corp. / 3,8%
Helmerich & Payne / 3,5%
Atwood Oceanics / 1,5%

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Hier eine Analysteneinschätzung zu einem der Schwergewichte im Drilling Index, Noble Corp.

Noble: Outperform (Credit Suisse First Boston)

Credit Suisse First Boston bewertet die Aktie des amerikanischen Öl-Dienstleisters Noble Corp. mit dem Rating "Outperform". Das Kursziel liegt bei 55 Dollar.

Noble bleibe ein langfristiger Favorit basierend auf Erfolgen des Managements und seiner guten Erfolge im Generieren von Kapitalrückflüssen. Das Bohrgeschäft und die Leistungen aus beendeten Projekten könnten um mehr als 20 Prozent in den nächsten zwei Jahren wachsen. Noble werde einer der Hauptprofiteure im Bereich der Plattformausrüster sein. Des Weiteren habe Noble eine Flotte tauchfähiger Schiffe, die von einer höheren Nachfrage im Tiefseebereich Nutzen ziehen werde. Die Analysten sehen signifikantes Aufwärtspotenzial für die Aktie bis 2006. Das Kurziel in Höhe von 55 Dollar impliziere ein für 2005 erwartetes Preis-Cash-Flow-Verhältnis von 15.

Analyst: Credit Suisse First Boston
Rating des Analysten: Outperform

Quelle: Aktien & Co 22.12.2004 13:39:00

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Pride International: Ouperform (Credit Suisse First Boston)

Credit Suisse First Boston bewertet die Aktie des amerikanischen Öl-Dienstleisters Pride International wiederholt mit dem Rating "Outperform". Das Kursziel liegt bei 26 Dollar.

In den letzten 18 Monaten sei Pride International im Bohrsegment stark gewachsen, was aber überschattet worden sei durch Verluste im Segment Plattformkonstruktion. Diese unvorhergesehenen Verluste hätten zu einer relativen Underperformance geführt. Trotz dieser kürzlichen enttäuschenden Aktienkursentwicklung sind die Analysten der Ansicht, dass das Unternehmen wichtige Schritte im Management hinsichtlich der strategischen Ziele gemacht habe. Pride International sei eines der bestpositionierten Unternehmen, das von Bohraktivitäten im Golf von Mexiko und Südamerika profitiere, und bleibe mit einem KGV von 8,7 eines der preiswertesten am Markt, im Vergleich zum Branchendurchschnitt von 10,9. Die Analysten erwarten, dass sich die Einnahmesituation verbessere und der Schuldenabbau voranschreite. Daher bestätigen sie ihr "Outperfom"-Rating und erwarten, dass sich der Kursabschlag gegenüber dem Sektor reduzieren werde.

Analyst: Credit Suisse First Boston
Rating des Analysten: Outperform

Quelle: Aktien & Co 22.12.2004 13:43:00

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Hier mal etwas zu Transocean, dem unangefochtenen Dickschiff des Zertifikates:

Transocean Inc.
P.O. Box 2765
Houston, TX 77252-2765
United States

http://www.deepwater.com

Contact: [phone] (Ph.)

Transocean Inc. is the world`s largest offshore drilling contractor with more than 170 full or partially owned and managed mobile offshore drilling units, inland drilling barges and other assets utilized in the support of offshore drilling activities worldwide. The company`s mobile offshore drilling fleet is considered one of the most modern and versatile in the world with 13 fifth-generation semisubmersibles and drillships, 15 other deepwater semisubmersibles and drillships, 32 mid-water semisubmersibles and drillships and 55 jackup drilling rigs. Transocean Inc. specializes in technically demanding segments of the offshore drilling business, including industry-leading positions in deepwater and harsh environment drilling services.

For customers, we offer the world`s largest, most modern and versatile fleet of offshore drilling units, ranking Number 1 or Number 2 in every global market served. And, we offer the industry`s largest fleet of deepwater drilling rigs, with unmatched expertise in technically challenging drilling environments.

For investors, we offer superior trading liquidity, with more than $5 billion in market capitalization; enhanced financial strength, including an investment-grade debt rating; and strong operating leverage with the potential for superior investment returns.

For employees, we offer international career opportunities with the industry`s leader in providing solutions to our customers` toughest offshore drilling challenges.

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Drilling for Oil Starts to Pay as Price Soars
by Richard Orange, Sunday Business, London 10/12/2005

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=25989" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=25989

Searching for oil has become one of the most profitable things anybody can do. The ramp-up in the oil price is raising hopes that the industry might start putting its money where its mouth is. This may lead to greater emphasis on exploration rather than cost-cutting or buying other oil companies.

A study by oil consultants Wood Mackenzie has modelled the effect of oil prices on the profitability of exploration. Assuming they could sell the oil they have discovered for $40 a barrel, the best explorers would have made returns of more than 20 percent on every dollar they have ploughed into finding new oil supplies over the past 10 years.

Even the worst performers out of the 28 top international oil firms surveyed would have made a 12 percent return.

When the first version of the study, Exploration Strategy and Performance, was released two years ago, it made waves in the oil industry by showing that the bottom ranks among oil companies were destroying value when they tried to find more oil. Given the level of discoveries and their costs today, Wood Mackenzie says, at a $20 oil price, two thirds of the companies would be destroying value.

Increased exploration is crucial to stave off a decline in global production and a steady concentration of pricing power in the hands of the Opec oil cartel.

Over the last decade, the six largest oil companies have drilled fewer wells. They slashed their budgets in 1999 after the oil price collapsed to $10. Even now, they haven`t increased them back to 1998`s level. The top six only account for two fifths of the oil exploration; before they accounted for two-thirds.

The result has been a collapse in the industry`s ability to replace the oil it sells, with the companies only finding half as much as they need. Wood Mackenzie estimates that to replace all of it, they`d need to increase spending on exploration from today`s $14bn (£8.0bn, E11.6bn) to $40bn. True, they`ve spent 30 percent more since the oil price started to climb, but almost every cent is swallowed by higher costs of hiring equipment, manpower and services.

Laid next to the $85bn the top five oil companies have spent buying back shares since 2000, that hardly looks like heavy spending.

Even if exploration increases, it is unlikely to triple to the levels needed to stop reserves declining. After all, part of the reason oil companies have been making good returns from exploration is because they have been doing less of it. BP, the most successful, has excelled because it only explores in the most prospective regions. Surprisingly, Royal Dutch Shell, plagued by problems with reserve replacement, came second in terms of profitability. No completely new oil hotspot has been discovered since 2000, when a string of finds was made off Angola.

Also, after a decade of cutting back, there aren`t enough drilling rigs or engineers for a doubling of exploration, however much cash companies pay. Investment in rigs is on the rise; around 30 new drilling rigs are being built. But that`s hardly enough to remove the bottleneck.

Copyright (c) 2005, The Business, London Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.