PEAK OIL : MEXIKO: 8 grösstes Oelfeld der Welt STIRBT ! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

Mexico’s Largest Oil Field in Premature Decline
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico’s state oil monopoly, said it expects production at its Cantarell oil field to begin declining this year, earlier than previously forecast.

Cantarell is the largest oil field in Mexico, and the eighth largest in the world. The field, which has been in production since 1979, had produced 2.11 million barrels per day in 2004. Pemex expects that to decline by 5% to 2.0 mbpd in 2005 .

Pemex had earlier forecast that Cantarell, which accounted for more than 60% of Pemex’ oil production last year, would not begin declining until at least 2006.

Pemex plans to invest as much as $11.5 billion this year, up from $10.1 billion in 2004, to boost production in other fields, including exploration of deep-water deposits for the first time, to make up for the Cantarell decline. Pemex has doubled its debt in four years to $45 billion to finance annual investments of about $10 billion.


The production chart at the right (click to enlarge), although a bit busy, provides some insight into the lifecycle of a major oil field.


Production (the blue line with diamond-shaped data markers) at Cantarell began in 1979, and rapidly reached a plateau, until it began declining around 1999. Pemex began injecting nitrogen (the purple line with triangular markers) into the oil field in 2000.

Gas injection (or steam, or water, or another gas, such as CO2) slows the natural decline of pressure in a reservoir, and can dramatically increase production.

In this case, production eventually almost doubled.

But some experts assert that the inevitable decline after peak production is reached in a field that has been through such enhanced production procedures, will be more sudden and dramatic than expected. An example of this in 2004 was the Yibal oilfield in Oman. (Earlier post.)

Matthew Simmons, in particular, worries about this happening to the giant Saudi oilfield Ghawar, and about the potential damage to the reservoir that can be done in the process of enhanced recovery. (Earlier post)

Pemex says that it intends to offset the decline in Cantarell, and boost its overall oil production this year, by increasing output from its Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex and light marine crude field.

However, the smaller fields Pemex is tapping may not be enough to make up for the output reduction in Cantarell, which is forecast to decline at rates of more than 10% in later years, according to energy consultant John Padilla of IPD Latin America, as quoted by Bloomberg.

Pemex is the third-largest producer of crude in the world, and the ninth largest integrated major oil company. It provides 16% of the imports to the US—behind Canada and jockeying with Saudi Arabia for second or third place. http://www.greencarcongress.com/


Grossalarm für den Oelpreis ! 2005

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

[fkosto]

Das hört sich aber garnicht gut an. Ich verfolge auch seit einger Zeit diese peak oil Geschichte. Ein Thema, welches in der Öffentlichkeit noch keines ist und von vielen der sogenannten Kapitlamarktexperten eher runtergespielt und lächerlich gemacht wird. Tatsache ist, dass die weltweite Ölnachfrage seit Jahrzehnten sehr konstant wächst, übrigens entgegen der Annahme der meisten Experten. In den letzten jahren hat sich dieser Trend aufgrund der guten Konjunktur und des Chinafaktors eher noch beschleunigt.
Auf der Angebotsseite ist allerdings nicht viel passiert. Tatsache ist, dass sich die Nachfragekurve und und die Angebotskurve (die weltweite tägliche Ölproduktion ist fast zu 100 % ausgereizt) erschreckend stark angenähert haben. In früheren Zeiten hätten die Saudis einfach am Hahn gedreht und das Problem wäre erledigt gewesen. Aber anscheinend sind wir an einem Punkt angekommen, wo dies nicht mehr der möglich ist.

Eine Lösung wäre sicherlich eine starke Steigerung der Produktion des Irak, aber dies ist unter den gegenwärtigen Sicherheitsbedingungen wohl illusorisch.

Somit bleibt als letztes Ventil vorerst nur der Preis. nur ein höherer Ölpreis kann die Nachfrage bremsen. Für die weltweiten Kapitlamärkte ist das keine tolle Perspektive.

Gruß

fkosto

[Crsus]

Wahrscheinlich die bis jetzt wichtigste Nachricht des Jahres! Peak Oil steht vor der Tür!

In der Zeitung steht natürlich nichts davon, und in den Radio- und Fernsehnachrichten wird auch nichts erwähnt.

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

#4

Ja, das stimmt voll und ganz !

Crude Oel aktuell 52,55 $


Es gibt Studien über Peak Oil , die davon ausgehen , dass die Folge - Panik bei Mainstream Berichten grossen Schaden Anrichten kann .........

Was aber passiert wenn die Notstandsgesetze über Nacht kommen ?

[Crsus]

Ich denke, der Preis für Öl wird erst einmal stark steigen (auf ca. 100 $ je Barrel), dadurch wird die Wirtschaft so weit abgewürgt, dass Angebot und Nachfrage wieder gleich hoch sind. Wenn die Produktion dann jedes Jahr weiter zurückgeht wird es das Wort Wirtschaftswachstum nicht mehr geben. Unsere jetzige Lebensweise gibt es dann auch nicht mehr. Die Frage ist, was dann kommt. Vielleicht haben wir ja Glück und der weltweite Peak ist nicht schon dieses Jahr sondern erst in zehn Jahren, ich bin da eher Pessimist .....

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

Deswegen ist es ja auch gerade wichtig, dass Industrie Nationen wie Deutschland sich vom Oel verabschieden .

Doch leider fehlt unseren "Eliten" der politische Wille eine reg. Energiewirtschaft mit 100% Vollversorgung aufzubauen .... ich sage nur Mineraloelsteuer ....


Übrigens ich kenne viele Leute die es wissen und HANDELN .

Hier im Forum müssten es mitlerweile auch viele begriffen haben ....

Oel aktuell 53 $ Schlusskurs auf Höchststand

PEAK OIL

[Looe]

# 7 Hallo Geist

Lese Deine beiden Treads regelmäßig. Stimmt schon, was Du schreibst. Das Menetekel "Peak Oil" steht schon seit Jahren an der Wand, nur die wenigsten wollen es verstehen.Ich lese gerade wieder das Buch "Ein Planet wird geplündert" von H. Gruhl, wurde in den späten 70-ern
geschrieben und befaßt sich mit allen drohenden Engpässen in der Rohstoff-und Nahrungsmittelversorgung auf diesem Planeten ( war übrigens kein Grüner sondern CDU-Mitglied, erwähne das nur, weil viele glauben, nur die Grünen seien kompetent auf diesem Gebiet). Erschreckend die Perspektiven, die damals schon aufgezeigt wurden, vor über fünfunddreißig Jahren, falls sich nichts grundsätzlich ändert. Heute wissen wir: es hat sich nichts grundsätzlich geändert, nur sind die Rohstoffe noch etwas knapper und natürlich auch teurer geworden, die Mitbewerber bzw. Verbraucher zahlreicher. Und die Zeit,die man hätte nutzen können, ist verstrichen. Was soll man also heute noch tun (außer in Ölaktien + Explorern zu investieren, was ich seit 2 Jahren mache)? Haste ne Idee ?
Gruß Looe

[weehaa]

Wo liegt denn der Hase im Pfeffer ?


Ich sag` jetzt nicht was "notwendig" ist. Das erledigt Gottes Wilde Natur - wie bei allen Kreaturen deren Population explodiert aufgrund excellenten Umfeldes - ganz von allein.

Wir sind wohl einfach zuviel geworden. Kahlfraß. Aus.

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

@ Looe

Ein Manhatten II Projekt muss her :

Ein fester verbindlicher Plan um die gesamte Weltwirtschaft auf reg. Energien umzustellen.

1. Die verbliebenen Oelressourcen auch Gas müssen unter UNO Kontrolle genau erfasst werden

2. Jedes Land bekommt Kontingente für die Landwirtschaft und Medizin soweit Substitute nicht ausreichen, die Oelproduzierenden Staaten werden hiermit einverstanden sein sonst = HUNGER !

3. Das verfeuern von Erdoel/Gas wird sukzessive untersagt : keine Oelheizung und kein Oel-Verbrennungsmotor mehr.

4. Rest - Erdoel soll primär dazu eingesetzt werden Anlagen zur Produktion von Alternativen Energien herzustellen gerade auch in den OELSTAATEN




Die Alternative dazu wäre ein MAD MAX Szenario

[ArmerMilliardaer]

uno kontrolle....wenn ich so einen schwachsinn schon höre stellt es mir die haare auf.
die uno ist ein sinnloser haufen der gar nichts kann und gar nichts tut.

[Steigerwälder]

@ 10 Ich denke über das Problem sind wir uns einig.
Bei den vorgeschlagenen Maßnahmen bekomme ich jedoch Bauchschmerzen. Solch eine globale Planwirtschaft würde Wirtschaft und Freiheit endgültig vernichten.

Ich denke der Markt wird von selbst (durch den Preis) dafür sorgen , dass fossile Brennstoffe nicht mehr verschwendet werden. Dadurch werden dann auch Investitionen in alternative Energien automatisch rentabel.

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

@ 12


Tja, dann wirst du Dich von Deiner Freiheit eben verabschieden müssen , denn die US Regierung schlägt über die DOE genau diesen Freiheitsentzug vor !


Du glaubst das nicht ?

Hier lese es nach :

http://216.187.75.220/newsletter51.pdf

ZITAT :"
504. The US Department of Energy addresses Peak Oil The US Department of Energy has submitted the following article for inclusion in this NewsletterThe Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil ProductionSummary of an Analysis, February 8, 2005A recently completed study for the U.S. Department of Energy analyzed viable technologies to mitigate oil shortages
associated with the upcoming peaking of world oil production.1 Commercial or near-commercial options include improved vehicle fuel efficiency, enhanced conventional oil recovery, and the production of substitute fuels. While research and development on other options could be important, their commercial success is by no means assured,
and none offer near-term solutions.Improved fuel efficiency in the world’s transportation sector will be a critical element in the long-term reduction of liquid fuel consumption, however, the scale of effort required will inherently take time and be very expensive. For example, the U.S. has a fleet of over 200 million automobiles, vans, pick-ups, and SUVs. Replacement of just half with higher efficiency models will require at least 15 years at a cost of over two trillion dollars for the U.S. alone. Similar conclusions generally apply worldwide.Commercial and near-commercial options for mitigating the decline of conventional oil production include: 1) Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), which can help moderate oil production declines from older conventional oil fields; 2) Heavy oil/oil sands, a large resource of lower grade oils, now produced primarily in Canada and Venezuela; 3) Coal liquefaction, an established technique for producing clean substitute fuels from the world’s abundant coal reserves; and 4) Clean substitute fuels produced from remote natural gas. For the foreseeable future, electricity-producing technologies, e.g., nuclear and solar energy, cannot substitute for liquid fuels in most transportation applications. Someday, electric cars may be practical, but decades will be required before they achieve significant market penetration and impact world oil consumption. And no one has yet defined viable options for powering heavy trucks or airplanes with electricity.To explore how these technologies might contribute, three alternative mitigation scenarios were analyzed: One where action is initiated when peaking occurs, a second where action is assumed to start 10 years before peaking, and a third where action is assumed to start 20 years before peaking. Estimates of the possible contributions of each mitigation option were developed, based on crash program implementation.
Crash programs represent the fastest possible implementation - the best case. In practical terms, real-world action is certain to be slower. Analysis of the simultaneous implementation of all of the options showed that an impact of roughly 25 million barrels per day might be possible 15 years after initiation. Because conventional oil production decline will start at the time of peaking, crash program mitigation inherently cannot avert massive shortages unless it is initiated well in advance of peaking. Specifically,* Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for two decades or longer.1 Hirsch, R.L., Bezdek, R.H, Wendling, R.M. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. DOE NETL. February 2005.1*
Initiating a crash program 10 years before world oil peaking would help considerably but would still result in a worldwide liquid fuels shortfall, starting roughly a decade after the time that oil would have otherwise peaked.* Initiating crash program mitigation 20 years before peaking offers the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic
hardship worldwide.Other important observations revealed by the analysis included the following:1. The date of world oil peaking is not known with certainty, complicating the decision-making process. A fundamental problem in predicting oil peaking is uncertain and politically biased oil reserves claims from many oil producing countries. 2. As recently as 2001, authoritative forecasts of abundant future supplies of North American natural gas proved to be excessively optimistic as evidenced by the recent tripling of natural gas prices. Oil and natural gas geology is similar in many ways, suggesting that optimistic oil production forecasts deserve to be viewed with considerable skepticism.3. In the developed nations, the economic problems associated with world oil peaking and the resultant oil shortages
will be extremely serious. In the developing nations, economic problems will be much worse. 4. While greater end-use efficiency is essential in the long term, increased efficiency alone will be neither sufficient
nor timely enough to solve the oil shortage problem in the short term. To preserve reasonable levels of economic prosperity and growth, production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels will be required. While a number of substitute fuel production technologies are currently available for deployment, the massive construction effort required will be extremely expensive and very time-consuming, even on a crash program basis.5. Government intervention will be essential, because the economic and social impacts of oil peaking will otherwise be chaotic, and crash program mitigation will need to be properly supported. How and when governments begin to seriously address these challenges is yet to be determined. Oil peaking discussions should focus primarily on prudent risk management, and secondarily on forecasting the timing of oil peaking, which will always be inexact. Mitigation initiated earlier than required might turn out to be premature, if peaking is slow in coming. If peaking is imminent, failure to act aggressively will be extremely damaging
worldwide.World oil peaking represents a problem like none other. The political, economic, and social stakes are enormous. Prudent risk management demands urgent attention and early action."

Makierungen von mir

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

Bild: Einzelfeldanalyse der Ölförderung in Großbritannien. Diese mit den Daten von 1999 erstellte Grafik aus dem Jahr 2001 zeigt, dass der dramatische Förderrückgang vorhersehbar war. Die tatsächliche Ölförderung bis Oktober 2004 liegt innerhalb der Bandbreite der damals prognostizierten Entwicklung. Gegenüber 2001 wurde nur die tatsächliche Produktion (rote Linie) aktualisiert!

Seit dem Jahr 2000 ist damit die Förderung bereits um fast 40% gefallen! Vermutlich im kommenden Jahr wird Großbritannien damit unwiderruflich mehr Öl verbrauchen als es fördert und dieses importieren müssen. Gleichzeitig ging auch die Gasförderung seit dem Jahr 2000 deutlich zurück.

Quelle www.energiekrise.de

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

Ganz Aktuell

SÜD KOREA BEREITET UMSTIEG AUF WASSERSTOFF WIRTSCHAFT VOR :

South Korea to Set Hydrogen Economy Policy This Year
03 March 2005

Author:
Provider: Asia Pulse Pte Ltd




SEOUL, March 3 Asia Pulse - South Korea will lay the foundations for a hydrogen-based economy that will revolutionize the country`s energy use, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said Thursday.

Outlining its policy directives for 2005 at the presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae, the ministry said the master plan for the transformation will be announced within the year.

The ministry said the switch, to be completed in stages, will eliminate the country`s reliance on fossil fuels for its energy needs by 2030-40.

In 2002, South Korea was the world`s 10th largest energy consuming nation, the seventh largest user of oil and was ranked fourth in terms of crude oil imports.

The proposed hydrogen-based economy would center on separating hydrogen from water and other hydrogen-rich molecules for use as a liquid fuel or in fuel cells to power cars, run factories, operate machines or generate electricity.

Research is still being conducted into the technology as the amount of energy required to separate hydrogen from water remains around four times higher than the energy promised by the final product.

South Korea remains about four to five years behind in the technology compared to industry leaders like the United States and Japan.

Minister of Commerce, Industry and Energy Lee Hee-beom said roughly 100 billion won (US$99.2 million) will be provided this year for various research and development projects into the technologies required.

The projects will include research into developing fuel cells for use in cars, buses and power generators and multipurpose robots.

The government will also help establish industrial parks that make use of hydrogen-based fuel cells, wind and solar power, other clean energy sources and more energy efficient insulation.

The transformation into a hydrogen economy will further help the country eliminate greenhouse gas emission prior to the introduction of required limits set by the Kyoto Protocol to reduce global warming.

Lee told President Roh Moo-hyun and other policymakers that the country will lay the foundations to allow exports of US$400 billion by 2008.

The nation`s export target for this year stands at $285 billion, while exports last year reached $253 billion.

It is expected reaching the $400 billion-mark would make the country the eighth largest trading nation in the world, up from 12th place in 2004.

The minister`s policy plan also proposes assisting 100 well-performing enterprises with approximately 200-300 employees become as globally competitive as South Korea`s large conglomerates.

Minister Lee said the government will have to persuade the semiconductor, auto, shipbuilding, precision, chemical, telecommunication and machinery industries to increase the level of their investment.

Companies in these fields have as late raised operating capacities without increasing their corporate capital expenditure.

He said that because of this they have reached the limit of possible production increases and that the government`s encouragement should be able to facilitate additional investment.

The corporate sector has said that various development and land restrictions were key obstacles to additional investment.

(Yonhap)


(C) 2005 Asia Pulse Pte Ltd.

[Steigerwälder]

@ 13 Es kann ja sein , dass die US- Regierung irgentetwas fordert oder plant. Meine Meinung darüber, was ich für richtig bzw. falsch halte, wird davon allerdings nicht beeinflusst.

[viena]

Geist , schreibe doch mal um wieviele % die Reserven in den letzten Jahren gefallen sind?

[Steigerwälder]

@ 17 Die offiziellen Reserven?
Die sind, beispielsweise in Saudi - Arabien, seit 1980 konstant, und dass obwohl in den letzten 25 Jahren kein neues großes Ölfeld mehr gefunden wurde...

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

@ Viena

Meinst du bei Shell ?

Den Haag - Der niederländisch-britische Ölkonzern Royal Dutch Shell hat seine nachgewiesenen konzerneigenen Ölreserven erneut nach unten revidiert. Die Shell-Ölreserven betragen nun nur noch 12,95 Mrd. Barrel (je 159 Liter) und reichen damit voraussichtlich noch zehn Jahre. Bisher war Shell von Ölvorräten in Höhe von 14,35 Mrd. Barrel ausgegangen. Mit der neuerlichen Korrektur hat die Shell-Gruppe innerhalb eines Jahres fast ein Viertel ihrer eigenen Ölreserven abgeschrieben.


[http://www.welt.de/data/2005/02/04/458186.html]

Da dies der drittgrösste Oelkonzern der Welt ist, nehme ich den mal als Referenzwert

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

Jetzt auch das grösste Oel-Feld der Welt GHAWAR @ Decline


PEAK OIL


http://corporate.bmo.com/HarrisNesbitt/bresource/basicpoint/…


DER GEIST UND DIE DUNKELHEIT

macht euch darauf aufmerksam das dies ein KRITISCHES EREIGNIS ist !

Es wird Euer LEBEN vollständig verändern !

Nichts wird mehr so sein wie es war :

1929 war dagegen ein Lüftchen im Frühling, dies aber ist ein Orkan im Winter bei -50 Grad in der Steppe Sibiriens

[DERGEISTUNDDIEDUNKELHEIT]

Mexico: the State, Oil and Silver

by Roland Watson
The New Era Investor Newsletter
June 30th, 2005

The giant Cantarell oil field lies deep under the water of the Gulf of Mexico. But in financial terms it stands astride the entire nation of Mexico. Since its discovery in 1979, it has been the mainstay of Mexican production accounting for nearly 60% of the country’s total production of over 3.3 million barrels of oil per day.

That number of 60% is also appropriate as it is the cut that the Mexican government takes from the revenues of the state oil company, Pemex in taxes every year. With those revenues totalling $69 billion last year, the Mexican state is whistling all the way to the bank. And the good times just seem to keep on rolling as crude oil has stubbornly stayed in the $50 region most of this year.

At the political level, these revenues add up to about one third of government spending on welfare subsidies and so on. A small calculation shows that the output of Cantarell provides about 20% of government spending funds.

Now for the bad news, this is set to decline at an alarming rate with the recent announcement from Pemex that 2005 is the year that Cantarell will begin an irreversible decline in production. This is set to drop from 2.11 million barrel per day to 2.02 million for this year. At $50 a barrel, that is a loss to the State coffers of nearly a billion dollars over the year. And what is more, we can expect the rate of decline to accelerate into double digits. Why is that? A look at the chart below will explain it.

Since the field came online in 1979, reservoir pressure has continually dropped as production extracted more and more oil. The crunch came in 1999 when production began to decline and massive injections of nitrogen gas were employed to stabilise reservoir pressure. At 1.2 billion cubic feet of compressed nitrogen per day, nearly half of global nitrogen production was used on the Cantarell field.

The result was dramatic with production nearly doubling to its recent maximum of 2,155,680 barrels of oil per day. But the end is now nigh and decline rates of 15% per annum can be expected as the pressure begins to drop markedly. Indeed, decline rates would have been a lot less (perhaps 5%) if the forced nitrogen pressures had not been used. It seems the Mexican government was in a hurry to cash in on rising oil prices that have more than quadrupled since the late 1990s.

For the time being, the Mexican government is urgently seeking to shore up production from smaller fields. But with production outside of Cantarell falling 18% between 1996 and 2002, this can only slow down the total decline. Beyond these, the great hope was in the 3000m depths of the underwater Abyssal Plain. But initial suggestions of a 54 billion barrel bonanza before even a test drill was attempted were shattered recently when a survey showed the terrain unsuitable for exploration. This led to a downgrading to 25 billion barrels and the possibility that such an amount would make serious drilling uneconomical. Well, maybe they’ll reconsider that when oil exceeds $100 a barrel?

So with liabilities of $88 billion dollars (four times that of Exxon) and an annual investment requirement of $10 billion just to maintain current production levels, Pemex is on the verge of bankruptcy. The Mexican government has reacted by trying to push a bill through their two houses to reduce the tax burden on Pemex over a period of several years. It should pass, subject to the two houses agreeing on the level of tax reductions.

But Mexico stands again at one of those inflection points where calm suddenly turns to turbulence and no more so for its currency, the Peso. The Mexican Peso is fiat money, but it is backed by oil. When oil revenues go up, so does the peso. When they go down, so does the peso. Consider the peso crisis of 1982. Overproduction of world oil had led to an oil glut in 1980 and subsequently prices crashed from a peak of $40 to $12 by 1986. In that downturn, the government borrowed heavily to offset lost oil revenues. Overall, they had to deal with the interest on $40 billion in loans they had taken out between 1977 and 1982 – a lot of it using the high oil prices as collateral.

The outcome was inflation rates averaging 30%, the peso being devalued by 30% and then 75% in 1982, investors pulling money out of Mexico and the government desperately nationalising the banks to impose currency and credit controls. This process was completed in 1986 with the final oil price collapse from $30 to $12 and a further devaluation and recession.

Again, another crisis hit in 1994 when a run on the peso caused it to half in value against the US dollar. Although irresponsible government borrowing and spending mainly exacerbated this crisis, the drop in oil prices from the Gulf War spike of $36 down to $15 by 1994 was obviously a factor.

But now we enter a new paradigm for the Mexican Peso. You see, the problem in 1982, 1986 and 1994 was not dropping oil prices but dropping oil revenues and hence tax revenues. Now as Mexico joins the growing list of countries in oil production decline, revenues will drop not because of a low oil price, but because of lower and lower production figures.

Back in the 1980s, pumping more oil may have eased the revenue problem, but now the Mexican government hopes that sustained oil prices will ameliorate the tax revenue situation. It will not, firstly because more tax will have to be given back to Pemex to finance more expensive exploration and extraction. Secondly, the increased debt burden will outweigh any gains. Finally, the only situation in which oil prices will rise at the same rate to offset Pemex’s production declines will be an overall peak in global world production. When that happens, we will all be too preoccupied with our own economies to think much about the Mexican Peso.

Which brings us finally to silver. Mexico is the largest producer of silver in the world at nearly 100 million ounces per year. It has produced nearly 10 billion ounces of the metal historically and probably has about 1.5 billion ounces left underground. It seems Mexico experienced “Peak Silver” a long time ago with over 80% of reserves gone.

But, unlike oil, the silver reserves will not drop as fast as 15% per annum and they are not combusted on consumption. The Mexican government faces a choice in its oil-backed peso currency. This time there is no recovery, the oil reserves will be in permanent decline and there can be no return to the glory days. Will they realise this and move from an oil-backed currency to a silver-backed currency?

Back in 1984, just after the first oil-induced peso crisis had unfolded, the Mexican government introduced the 1 ounce silver Libertad. Perhaps to bring back some dignity against the depreciation of the paper peso, but certainly a mintage that fostered a whole host of silver bullion coin programs worldwide.

However, the Libertad has limited legal tender value, what would it take to push a silver coin towards true legal tender? The 1982 oil crisis may have influenced the first issue of the Libertad; will a more permanent downturn in Mexico’s oil future convince the Mexican State to put some of their circulating currency under a more sure footing?

Many readers will be aware of Hugo Salinas Price’s campaign to convince the Mexican government to introduce a circulating silver Libertad. The mechanics of introducing it are discussed here. The question in this article is not the mechanics but the catalyst for introduction. New Era Investor thinks the downturn in Mexico’s oil revenues will precipitate another peso crisis. Allied with a future peak in global oil production and the resulting economic contractions, Mexico’s hand should be forced towards stabilising the currency.

From silver’s point of view, it may have been better if the full force of that peak in Mexican oil production had been now. It would have swayed some of the doubters in the Mexican legislature and softened the opposition of the Mexican Central Bank.

But then again, with the bill to reduce Pemex’s tax obligations very much in the forefront of the Mexican Senate; they know why that bill is before them. Will they do what politicians are elected to do? That is, to look ahead into the future and to lead their nation forward; and not only their nation, but also a host of other nations seeking certainty in uncertain times. Only time will tell, but that time is shortening rapidly.

To view a sample copy of the New Era Investor newsletter, please go to www.newerainvestor.com and click on the "View Sample Issue Here" link to the right.

Comments are invited by emailing the author at [e-mail]

http://321energy.com/editorials/watson/watson063005.html