First Majestic, ein Silberjunior auf dem Weg in die Mittelklasse? (Seite 3362)
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alte story, schön zusammengefasst.
und auch wenn`s am ende auf gold hinausläuft, würden entsprechende effekte auf silber nicht ausbleiben (möglicherweise bzw. wahrscheinlich wäre silber dann sogar das "bessere" gold ...):
Booms Were Made to Go Bust
by Robert Kiyosaki
Posted on Monday, June 25, 2007, 12:00AM
During the height of the real estate bubble, I wrote a column saying that the crash was coming and suggested selling any piece of real estate that was overpriced, questionable, or non-performing. As expected, I received angry replies.
Today, I'm predicting the next crash, what I believe will cause it, and why it'll be a severe blow to the global economy. The signs are already here.
Busts Beat Booms
First of all, it's no big deal to predict booms and busts. All markets boom and bust. It's just easier to predict a bust because the signs are so obvious -- like excess euphoria, easy access to money, huge profits, and scores of happy amateurs entering the market.
Booms are harder to predict. They start silently, like oak acorns buried in the ground -- you don't notice them until they're towering trees. For example, few people recognized Microsoft or Google for the giants they were until after they'd become major players and the big profits had been made.
Paradoxically, that means busts are better because we can see them coming. This gives us time to prepare, and makes it easier to capitalize on them.
The Year the Dollar Died
The coming bust started in 1971. That was the year Richard Nixon took the United States off the gold standard, thus converting the U.S. dollar from money to currency -- that is, from an asset to a liability, and an instrument of debt. That was the year the dollar died.
After Nixon was forced out of office, the U.S. economy went into a slump under presidents Ford and Carter. We had high inflation and low growth, otherwise known as "stagflation," before Ronald Reagan and his dedication to supply-side economics -- Reganonomics -- came along.
Reagan cut taxes and started borrowing money, increasing the national debt. As a nation and as a people, we began borrowing and spending to spur the economy. And the economy boomed until 2000.
A World of Debt
It began to sink after 9/11. We lowered interest rates and began printing more money. In 2003 and 2004, the Bank of Japan created 35 trillion yen to save the dollar and their economy. It was like a loan of $320 billion to the United States, and probably prevented a run on the dollar.
This loan kept interest rates low, which prolonged the boom with easy money from cheap debt. The problem is that interest rates are now beginning to rise, and the mountains of debt will have to be paid back. If interest rates rise and the economy slows, a severe crash could occur -- a crash caused by years of accumulating debt in order to spur the economy.
The world has never been in this position before -- and the whole world is involved. That's because Nixon's actions in 1971 made the United States into a virtual empire. As an empire, we began dictating the terms of world trade: If you wanted to do business with us, you had to accept our new dollar as gold. Unfortunately, the world complied.
The New Money
Today, China ships us products and we ship them dollars. The problem is that the Chinese can't spend those dollars. If they do, the price of their currency, the yuan, would go up. Why? It's simply a matter of supply and demand.
So instead of spending their U.S. dollars in China, the Chinese buy our assets, especially U.S. bonds, with them. Because they buy our bonds, interest rates in the U.S. remain low, and low interest rates encourage Americans to borrow more money. This causes bubbles in real estate and the stock market.
The problem is almost as bad in China. The Chinese are using U.S. debt as collateral in borrowing yuan to finance projects within their country. With the Chinese economy booming and in preparation for the 2008 Olympics, the Chinese have gone shopping -- they want to look good for the world.
Using Chinese debt collateralized by U.S. debt, they've been buying natural resources from all over the world. Consequently, countries that are rich in natural resources -- such as Canada, Africa, and Australia -- are booming. Real estate and stock markets in those countries are hot.
But the global boom is clearly built on a mountain of debt.
A Familiar Cycle
This type of boom has happened before. In 1971, Japan was finally emerging from the effects of World War II and becoming a world economic power. The Japanese were exporting cars and televisions to the United States, and because we were importing more than we exported, the Japanese took payment in U.S. gold. In fact, one of the reasons President Nixon converted the dollar from money to a currency was to stop this hemorrhage of gold.
In the 1980s, instead of using gold to finance their economy, the Japanese used U.S. debt as collateral for Japanese debt. This caused the Japanese economy to boom just as the Chinese economy is booming today, and it made the Japanese look like geniuses. Business books and magazines trumpeted the magic of Japanese business management.
Then, in the early 1990s, the Japanese boom busted. Their stock market crashed and the most expensive real estate in the world became cheap. Today, the Japanese economy continues to struggle.
China Isn't Japan
China's advantage is that it learned from Japan's mistakes. That's why the Chinese stubbornly refuse to revalue their currency -- they don't want to make it more expensive the way the Japanese did theirs.
Currently, the Chinese yuan is pegged at 7.6 yuan to one U.S. dollar. This makes the United States accuse China of being unfair; we'd like to see the yuan float the way the Japanese let the yen float. This would make it easier for us to reduce our balance of trade, as well as pay back our debt with cheaper dollars.
The problem is that the Chinese know from the Japanese experience that we can talk tough but not act tough -- they simply hold too much of our debt for us to take measures. And if the Chinese started dumping U.S dollars and bonds on the world market, the world economy might well crumble, just as the Japanese economy crashed nearly 20 years ago.
Time for a New Standard
While it's tough to predict the future, one thing is for certain: The U.S. dollar will continue to go down in value, and savers will be losers. With people all over the world piling debt upon debt and spending like fools, it might be best to follow the Chinese.
They've never trusted banks, but have always trusted gold. Maybe it's time we started doing the same.
und auch wenn`s am ende auf gold hinausläuft, würden entsprechende effekte auf silber nicht ausbleiben (möglicherweise bzw. wahrscheinlich wäre silber dann sogar das "bessere" gold ...):
Booms Were Made to Go Bust
by Robert Kiyosaki
Posted on Monday, June 25, 2007, 12:00AM
During the height of the real estate bubble, I wrote a column saying that the crash was coming and suggested selling any piece of real estate that was overpriced, questionable, or non-performing. As expected, I received angry replies.
Today, I'm predicting the next crash, what I believe will cause it, and why it'll be a severe blow to the global economy. The signs are already here.
Busts Beat Booms
First of all, it's no big deal to predict booms and busts. All markets boom and bust. It's just easier to predict a bust because the signs are so obvious -- like excess euphoria, easy access to money, huge profits, and scores of happy amateurs entering the market.
Booms are harder to predict. They start silently, like oak acorns buried in the ground -- you don't notice them until they're towering trees. For example, few people recognized Microsoft or Google for the giants they were until after they'd become major players and the big profits had been made.
Paradoxically, that means busts are better because we can see them coming. This gives us time to prepare, and makes it easier to capitalize on them.
The Year the Dollar Died
The coming bust started in 1971. That was the year Richard Nixon took the United States off the gold standard, thus converting the U.S. dollar from money to currency -- that is, from an asset to a liability, and an instrument of debt. That was the year the dollar died.
After Nixon was forced out of office, the U.S. economy went into a slump under presidents Ford and Carter. We had high inflation and low growth, otherwise known as "stagflation," before Ronald Reagan and his dedication to supply-side economics -- Reganonomics -- came along.
Reagan cut taxes and started borrowing money, increasing the national debt. As a nation and as a people, we began borrowing and spending to spur the economy. And the economy boomed until 2000.
A World of Debt
It began to sink after 9/11. We lowered interest rates and began printing more money. In 2003 and 2004, the Bank of Japan created 35 trillion yen to save the dollar and their economy. It was like a loan of $320 billion to the United States, and probably prevented a run on the dollar.
This loan kept interest rates low, which prolonged the boom with easy money from cheap debt. The problem is that interest rates are now beginning to rise, and the mountains of debt will have to be paid back. If interest rates rise and the economy slows, a severe crash could occur -- a crash caused by years of accumulating debt in order to spur the economy.
The world has never been in this position before -- and the whole world is involved. That's because Nixon's actions in 1971 made the United States into a virtual empire. As an empire, we began dictating the terms of world trade: If you wanted to do business with us, you had to accept our new dollar as gold. Unfortunately, the world complied.
The New Money
Today, China ships us products and we ship them dollars. The problem is that the Chinese can't spend those dollars. If they do, the price of their currency, the yuan, would go up. Why? It's simply a matter of supply and demand.
So instead of spending their U.S. dollars in China, the Chinese buy our assets, especially U.S. bonds, with them. Because they buy our bonds, interest rates in the U.S. remain low, and low interest rates encourage Americans to borrow more money. This causes bubbles in real estate and the stock market.
The problem is almost as bad in China. The Chinese are using U.S. debt as collateral in borrowing yuan to finance projects within their country. With the Chinese economy booming and in preparation for the 2008 Olympics, the Chinese have gone shopping -- they want to look good for the world.
Using Chinese debt collateralized by U.S. debt, they've been buying natural resources from all over the world. Consequently, countries that are rich in natural resources -- such as Canada, Africa, and Australia -- are booming. Real estate and stock markets in those countries are hot.
But the global boom is clearly built on a mountain of debt.
A Familiar Cycle
This type of boom has happened before. In 1971, Japan was finally emerging from the effects of World War II and becoming a world economic power. The Japanese were exporting cars and televisions to the United States, and because we were importing more than we exported, the Japanese took payment in U.S. gold. In fact, one of the reasons President Nixon converted the dollar from money to a currency was to stop this hemorrhage of gold.
In the 1980s, instead of using gold to finance their economy, the Japanese used U.S. debt as collateral for Japanese debt. This caused the Japanese economy to boom just as the Chinese economy is booming today, and it made the Japanese look like geniuses. Business books and magazines trumpeted the magic of Japanese business management.
Then, in the early 1990s, the Japanese boom busted. Their stock market crashed and the most expensive real estate in the world became cheap. Today, the Japanese economy continues to struggle.
China Isn't Japan
China's advantage is that it learned from Japan's mistakes. That's why the Chinese stubbornly refuse to revalue their currency -- they don't want to make it more expensive the way the Japanese did theirs.
Currently, the Chinese yuan is pegged at 7.6 yuan to one U.S. dollar. This makes the United States accuse China of being unfair; we'd like to see the yuan float the way the Japanese let the yen float. This would make it easier for us to reduce our balance of trade, as well as pay back our debt with cheaper dollars.
The problem is that the Chinese know from the Japanese experience that we can talk tough but not act tough -- they simply hold too much of our debt for us to take measures. And if the Chinese started dumping U.S dollars and bonds on the world market, the world economy might well crumble, just as the Japanese economy crashed nearly 20 years ago.
Time for a New Standard
While it's tough to predict the future, one thing is for certain: The U.S. dollar will continue to go down in value, and savers will be losers. With people all over the world piling debt upon debt and spending like fools, it might be best to follow the Chinese.
They've never trusted banks, but have always trusted gold. Maybe it's time we started doing the same.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.316.483 von prof19 am 25.06.07 23:19:46hab bislang nur den chart von ESG im auge...
ein echter kracher
ein echter kracher
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.315.142 von Boersenkrieger am 25.06.07 22:17:56dann noch die Gasbeteiligung von HILLGROVE
hast du die mal angeschaut
hast du die mal angeschaut
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.298.595 von prof19 am 25.06.07 02:59:48wobei es in Aussie-Land saisonal eh andersrum aussieht
daran hab ich jetzt auch noch nicht gedacht
Hillgrove entwickelt sich wirklich sehr schön... tut grad gut in diesen etwas schwierigeren tagen... aber gut ich bin im depot nur 1500 € vom top weg.
hab mal die CA: BGL eingepackt.... man könnte ja was verpassen. vom chart her schöner boden bei 1 cad rum... mal gucken
daran hab ich jetzt auch noch nicht gedacht
Hillgrove entwickelt sich wirklich sehr schön... tut grad gut in diesen etwas schwierigeren tagen... aber gut ich bin im depot nur 1500 € vom top weg.
hab mal die CA: BGL eingepackt.... man könnte ja was verpassen. vom chart her schöner boden bei 1 cad rum... mal gucken
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.310.079 von prof19 am 25.06.07 17:32:51Danke! So ist halt Börse. Bei Novastar wollte ich etwas günstiger rein, das hat nicht geklappt. Nun habe ich bei Strateco aufgrund der anstehenden News auf einen Kaufkurs knapp über EUR 2,00 verzichtet - und schon hätte man sie so bekommen. Mal sehen, wo der Kurs steht, wenn ich nächsten Mittwoch wieder im Ländle bin.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.309.084 von hoschmi am 25.06.07 16:48:51STRATECO
Die Aktie hat seit dem Wechsel an die TSX eine recht hohe Volatilität und macht immer mal wieder erratische Kursschwankungen. Ich habe heute deren IR-Abteilung angerufen. In Quebec spricht man französisch, die Dame konnte zwar englisch aber mit deutlichem Akzent. FAZIT: heute ist dort Feiertag, morgen wieder ...
Man kann die STRATECO kaum mit YALE vergleichen. Allein von der Marktkap her. Die STRATECO hat mehr Cash in der Kasse als die YALE an Marktkap hat. Man könnte nun sagen: echtes Geld schlägt virtuelles Geld.
Aber die STRATECO verbraucht ja auch Geld mit ihren umfangreichen Explorationen. Ich warte, ob da nicht endlich mal ein paar Bohrlöcher bekannt gegeben werden, wie das ja angeblich schon letzte Woche passieren sollte. Bis August sollen sie jedenfalls die komplette Resource ausgemessen haben. Leider kenne ich hier niemand, der sich intensiv genug mit der Aktie befasst hat.
Letztlich doch sehr aussichtsreich, der Wechsel an die größere Börse sollte sich irgendwann positiv auswirken. Momentan sieht es eher so aus, dass es in regelmäßigen Umständen runtergezogen wird, vermutlich um einigen Playern den Einstieg zu versüßen. Ein langatmiges Spielchen, das mir nicht gefällt.
Sommerloch hoch drei, da könnte ich mir was Schöneres vorstellen
Grüße, Prof19
Die Aktie hat seit dem Wechsel an die TSX eine recht hohe Volatilität und macht immer mal wieder erratische Kursschwankungen. Ich habe heute deren IR-Abteilung angerufen. In Quebec spricht man französisch, die Dame konnte zwar englisch aber mit deutlichem Akzent. FAZIT: heute ist dort Feiertag, morgen wieder ...
Man kann die STRATECO kaum mit YALE vergleichen. Allein von der Marktkap her. Die STRATECO hat mehr Cash in der Kasse als die YALE an Marktkap hat. Man könnte nun sagen: echtes Geld schlägt virtuelles Geld.
Aber die STRATECO verbraucht ja auch Geld mit ihren umfangreichen Explorationen. Ich warte, ob da nicht endlich mal ein paar Bohrlöcher bekannt gegeben werden, wie das ja angeblich schon letzte Woche passieren sollte. Bis August sollen sie jedenfalls die komplette Resource ausgemessen haben. Leider kenne ich hier niemand, der sich intensiv genug mit der Aktie befasst hat.
Letztlich doch sehr aussichtsreich, der Wechsel an die größere Börse sollte sich irgendwann positiv auswirken. Momentan sieht es eher so aus, dass es in regelmäßigen Umständen runtergezogen wird, vermutlich um einigen Playern den Einstieg zu versüßen. Ein langatmiges Spielchen, das mir nicht gefällt.
Sommerloch hoch drei, da könnte ich mir was Schöneres vorstellen
Grüße, Prof19
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.298.595 von prof19 am 25.06.07 02:59:48@prof: Bei Strateco jetzt das gleiche Spiel wie bei Yale?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.302.993 von timesystem1000 am 25.06.07 11:01:11Hallo, nachdem , was ich gehört habe, wird silber in den kommenden jahren ein sehr wichtiges industriemetall sein, das ist für mich der grund, zu halten, bismich mindestens eine verdoppelung sehe
cura
cura
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.300.887 von to_siam am 25.06.07 08:39:31Das ist doch kein Geheimnis,
ganz normale Edelmetallaktien mit Gewinnen oder konkreten Aussichten auf Gewinne.
HL, CDE, CA:FR, CA:EXN, CA:GGC, SSRI (derzeit Zinseinnahmen) z.B.
Auch Standartwerte wie NEM oder GG sind relativ billig zu haben, bei den Südafrikanern bleibe ich eher vorsichtig.
Dazu ein Riesenhaufen interessanter Explorer. Was ist z.B. mit Apogee Minerals? Die liegt total am Boden. Zu recht oder zu unrecht?
Grüsse...
ganz normale Edelmetallaktien mit Gewinnen oder konkreten Aussichten auf Gewinne.
HL, CDE, CA:FR, CA:EXN, CA:GGC, SSRI (derzeit Zinseinnahmen) z.B.
Auch Standartwerte wie NEM oder GG sind relativ billig zu haben, bei den Südafrikanern bleibe ich eher vorsichtig.
Dazu ein Riesenhaufen interessanter Explorer. Was ist z.B. mit Apogee Minerals? Die liegt total am Boden. Zu recht oder zu unrecht?
Grüsse...
ich könnte ko...
Dollar schwach, Hedge-Fonds geht fast pleite und Gold und Silber werden nach unten getrieben...
Wer erklärt mir nachfolgenden Zusammenhang:
Aktuell hohe Inflation und der Gold und Silberpreis wird durch die Zentralbanken manipuliert..
Jetzt werden aber die Zinsen drastisch erhöht (und glaubt mir, das werden die ZB tun, auch wenn die Wirtschaft darunter leidet, denn Sie wollen Ihren Job behalten und das Finanzsystem - aus ihrer Sicht- retten) und damit steigt Gold und Silber weider nicht (hohe Zinsen machen Gold und Silber unattraktiv)
Also, woher kommt der Katalysator für steigende Gold und Silberpreise...??
Sorry für die Fragen, aber ich bin extrem demotiviert...
Dollar schwach, Hedge-Fonds geht fast pleite und Gold und Silber werden nach unten getrieben...
Wer erklärt mir nachfolgenden Zusammenhang:
Aktuell hohe Inflation und der Gold und Silberpreis wird durch die Zentralbanken manipuliert..
Jetzt werden aber die Zinsen drastisch erhöht (und glaubt mir, das werden die ZB tun, auch wenn die Wirtschaft darunter leidet, denn Sie wollen Ihren Job behalten und das Finanzsystem - aus ihrer Sicht- retten) und damit steigt Gold und Silber weider nicht (hohe Zinsen machen Gold und Silber unattraktiv)
Also, woher kommt der Katalysator für steigende Gold und Silberpreise...??
Sorry für die Fragen, aber ich bin extrem demotiviert...
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