Baidu.com - NASDAQ: BIDU crashed - dieses Jahr noch unter 30 US Dollar? (Seite 114)

[odem]

BAIDU:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oR7L0uX2JT4

[ecki007]

was ist los warum 10 % minus....versteh ick nich mehr

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.111.493 von Trader20008 am 20.09.11 16:24:34

Da läßt man die Sache 1/2 Std. aus den Augen, und schon schalten die die Schubumkehr ein.

Tsss... Tsss... Tsss...


Gruß
Karlll

[Trader20008]

da sind sie schon...schöner Sprung heute..NEWS??

[Karlll]

Na, sind die 150 US-Dollar wieder in Reichweite?

[Karlll]

SEPTEMBER 15, 2011, 2:23 P.M. ET
China Officials Meet With Baidu Chief


By LORETTA CHAO And OWEN FLETCHER

BEIJING—Chinese Internet-search company Baidu Inc. said Chief Executive Robin Li met recently with two senior Chinese officials, the latest in a series of high-level official visits with Web companies as the government tries to tighten control of the sector.

Meanwhile, Qunar.com Information Technology Co., a travel-search company of which Baidu owns a majority stake, said it planned to list its shares in the U.S. next year.
[BAIDU]

Baidu on Thursday said Chinese propaganda chief Li Changchun and Liu Qi, secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee, visited a Baidu exhibition in Beijing on Sept. 5 to learn more about the company's business and to give "important instructions." Both officials are members of the Communist Party's Politburo, which is made up of the party's top 25 leaders. Baidu's CEO was at the exhibition, the company said.

The company said the propaganda chief encouraged Baidu to "continue growing and become stronger, winning honor for Chinese companies." Baidu has expressed interest in international expansion and offers services in Japanese, Thai and Arabic, in addition to Chinese.

A Baidu spokesman declined to provide further details on the visit.

Central-government officials couldn't be reached for comment.

The visits to Baidu and other companies this year underscore the government's growing anxiety over the explosive growth and spreading influence of the nation's Internet sector. Chinese Web companies are required to follow orders from authorities, including requirements to censor their content. Internet companies must walk a fine line, offering services that draw users without angering the central government.

In some cases, the executives' efforts veer into unusual displays of patriotism. Robin Li and other Chinese Internet executives traveled in June to the Shanghai site of the first meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, where they sang revolutionary songs and made speeches praising China's blend of socialism and free-market elements to help celebrate the 90th anniversary of the party's founding.

Last month, Mr. Liu visited online video company Youku.com Inc. and Web portal Sina Corp., which operates one of China's biggest Twitter-like microblogging services. According to state media, he told executives that Internet companies should "step up the application and management of new technology, and absolutely put an end" to "fake and misleading information," a term often to mean information not approved by Chinese authorities.

Tencent Holdings Ltd.—which operates China's most popular instant-messaging service, QQ, as well as a microblogging service and a games portal—said in July that China security chief and Politburo member Zhou Yongkang visited its offices. The company said also that Politburo member Liu Yandong and Tianjin Party Secretary Zhang Gaoli appeared at Tencent's Guangdong and Tianjin offices, respectively. Ms. Liu and Mr. Zhang are potential candidates for promotion to the Politburo Standing Committee, China's top decision-making body, in next year's once-a-decade leadership change.

During his visit, Mr. Zhou said "online virtual society's influence on real society is becoming bigger and bigger" and that "the government must strengthen oversight of it in accordance with the law." The visit included an inspection of an office set up by local Web police within the company, according to an article by state-run Xinhua news agency posted on Tencent's website.

Tencent's site quoted Mr. Zhou as saying that Internet companies "must strengthen industry self-discipline" and play a more proactive role in "upholding harmoniousness and stability."

Tencent spokeswoman Catherine Chan said the company often receives central-government officials at its offices. As for the company's cooperation with Shenzhen authorities, she said, "We have a responsibility to protect the security of virtual items on our platforms and will stay in touch with relevant departments to help resolve such user complaints."

Qunar's stock-market listing would come despite investor skittishness in light of market volatility and accounting worries involving some U.S.-listed Chinese companies. Qunar's ties with Baidu, long listed in the U.S., likely would bolster the offering, however.

A Qunar spokeswoman said details aren't yet available on Qunar's IPO plans. Baidu in June said it would make a $306 million investment in Qunar. It didn't specify the size of its stake but said the move made Baidu the company's majority shareholder. Baidu said Qunar would continue to operate as an independent company while cooperating with Baidu in travel-search services.

Write to Loretta Chao at [e-mail] and Owen Fletcher at [e-mail]

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190449170457657…

[Karlll]

Dell entwickelt Tablets und Smartphones für Baidu
Der chinesische Suchmaschinenriese Baidu startet mit einem eigenen mobilen Betriebssystem und gewinnt Dell als Partner für seine mobilen Endgeräte.



(06.09.2011, 08:35) Baidu, der führende Internetkonzern am chinesischen Suchmaschinenmarkt, veröffentlicht sein eigenes mobiles Betriebssystem, mit dem Namen Yi. Das mobile Betriebssystem ist an Googles Android angelehnt. Yi ist mit den direkten Service-Angeboten von Baidu verbunden. Zusätzlich geht das chinesische Unternehmen eine Partnerschaft mit dem PC-Hersteller Dell ein. Dell soll die Tablets und Smartphones für Baidu entwickeln.

Yi ist ein Handy-Betriebssystem basierend auf Android, doch es integriert direkt die Service-Angebote von Baidu. Dazu zählen Baidu-Mapping, ein eReader und auch Ting, ein Musik-Dienst von Baidu. Baidu hat bereits eine starke Präsenz auf Android-Geräten in China. Das Unternehmen hat einen Anteil von rund 80 Prozent am chinesischen Suchmaschinenmarkt und etwa 200 Millionen registrierte Nutzer.

Medienberichten zufolge konnte Baidu den amerikanischen Computer-Hersteller Dell als Partner gewinnen. Einen offiziellen Zeitplan, wann die ersten Geräte auf den Markt kommen sollen, gibt es noch nicht. Doch Gerüchten zufolge soll bereits im November das erste Tablet mit dem mobilen Betriebssystem von Baidu auf den Markt kommen.

Dell hat bereits länger Smartphones und Tablets am Markt, das Streak 5 Tablet. Es ist ein 5-Zoll-Tabletbasierend auf Android. Bei der IFA hat Dell auch ein 7 Zoll Streak Tablet mit Android 2.2 gezeigt. Eine Kooperation zwischen Baidu und Dell könnte ein ähnliches Produkt hervorbringen. Die beiden Unternehmen sind sich einig, auch gemeinsam Smartphones zu entwickeln.

[Karlll]

Baidu: Limited Upside, Unlimited Downside
by: Dr. Osman Gulseven August 31, 2011

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is a Chinese web services company which operates one of the world’s leading search engines. Beijing-headquartered Baidu, a.k.a. the Google of China, provides an index of more than 750 million web pages, 10 million multimedia files, and 80 million images. The company greatly benefited from Google’s (GOOG) decision to exit a Chinese market, becoming an almost monopoly with no serious competitor left in the market.

As of August 30, Baidu stock was trading at $148 with a 52-week range of $76.04-165.96. It has a market cap of $51.8 billion. Trailing 12 month P/E ratio is 64,9 and forward P/E ratio is 34.2. P/B, P/S, and P/CF ratios stand at 29.6, 31.4, and 70.4, respectively. The three-year annualized revenue and EPS growth stand at 65.6% and 77.3%, respectively. Operating margin is 52.2% and net profit margin is 46.5%. The company has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02. Baidu does not have a dividend policy.

Baidu has only two star ratings from Morningstar. While its trailing P/E ratio is 64.9, it has a five-year average P/E ratio of 83.1. Although it is a high-flier, out of 35 analysts covering the company, 27 have buy, four have outperform, three have hold, and one has underperform ratings. Wall Street has diverse opinions on Baidu’s future. The bottom line is 27.9% growth, whereas the top-line growth estimate is 84.1%. Average five-year annualized growth forecast estimate is 41.7%.

What is the fair value of Baidu given the forecast estimates? In this article, the 14th in a never-ending series, I will show a step-by-step calculation of Baidu’s fair value using discounted earnings plus equity model.

Discounted Earnings Plus Equity Model

This model is primarily used for estimating the returns from long-term projects. It is also frequently used to price fair-valued IPOs. The methodology is based on discounting the present value of the future earnings to the current period:
V = E0 + E1 /(1+r) + E2 /(1+r)2 + E3/(1+r)3 + E4/(1+r)4 + E5/(1+r)5 + Disposal Value
V = E0 + E0 (1+g)/(1+r) + E0(1+g)2/(1+r)2 + … + E0(1+g)5/(1+r)5 + E0(1+g)5/[r(1+r)5]
The earnings after the last period act as a perpetuity that creates regular earnings:
Disposal Value = D = E0(1+g)5/[r(1+r)5] = E5 / r
While this formula might look scary for many of us, it easily calculates the fair value of a stock. All we need is the current-period earnings, earnings growth estimate, and the discount rate. To be as objective as possible, I use Morningstar data for my estimates. You can set these parameters as you wish, according to your own diligence.
Baidu’s Valuation
Historically, the average return of the DJI has been around 11% (including dividends). Therefore, I will use 11% as my discount rate. Since we are in the middle of the year, it will be more feasible to take the average of ttm EPS of $2.20 along with the mean estimate of $4.32 for the next year.
E0 = EPS = ($2.20+ $4.32) / 2 = $3.26
Wall Street holds diversified opinions on Baidu’s future. While analysts tend to impose subjective opinions on their estimates, the average analyst estimate is a good starting point. Average five-year growth forecast is 41.7%. Book value per share is $5.01.
The rest is as follows:

Fair Value Estimator
V0

E0

$3.26
V1

E0 (1+g)/(1+r)

$4.16
V2

E0((1+g)/(1+r))2

$5.31
V3

E0((1+g)/(1+r))3

$6.78
V4

E0((1+g)/(1+r))4

$8.66
V5

E0((1+g)/(1+r))5

$11.05
D

E0(1+g)5/[r(1+r)5]

$100.48
BV

Equals

$5.01
Fair Value Range

Lower Boundary

$139.70
Upper Boundary

$144.71
Potential

-2.22%
I decided to add the book value per share so that we can distinguish between a low-debt and debt-loaded company. The lower boundary does not include the book value. According to my five-year discounted-earnings-plus-book-value model, the fair-value range for Baidu is between $139.7 and $144.71 per share.
As of Aug 30, Baidu was trading at a price of $148 with a 52-week range of $76.04-165.96. I see substantial growth potential in Baidu. However, the market has already priced this potential. The current price of $148 indicates that the stock is overvalued. Based on my FED+ fair value estimate, Baidu is trading almost 10% higher than my fair-value range. There is also a very high possibility that the growth rate might be lower than analyst estimates. Besides it has an extremely high P/B ratio of 29.6.
O – Metrix Confirmation
If the math above looks too complicated for you, try estimating the fair value using the O-Metrix as such:
O-Metrix = [(Dividend Yield + Growth Estimate) / (P/E Ratio)] * 5
· Dividend Yield: Higher is better.
· EPS Growth: Higher is better.
· P/E Ratio: Lower is better.
The back-testing of this valuation technique on 40 large-caps shows that O-Metrix works very well over the long-term, such as five years. I am also continuously checking on specific sectors, and the formula works very well so far.
What is the O-Metrix Score?

* Baidu does not have a dividend policy. Therefore, the yield is 0.
* Growth estimate is the same as the discounted earnings model and is equal to 41.70%.
* Since we are at the middle of the year, taking the average of ttm (64.9) and forward (34.2) P/E ratios will smooth the results. Thus, the average P/E ratio to be used in the model is 49.55.

O-Metrix = [(41.70 + 0) / (49.55)] * 5 = 4.21
Depending on the benchmark chosen, the market has an O-Metrix score range between 4 and 5. Baidu's O-Metrix score of 4.21 is on the lower-end of market’s fair-value range. Back-testing of this ranking system shows that companies with higher-than-average O-Metrix scores beat the market with lower volatility. At a price of $148, the company is trading within the C-Grade, average-return zone.
[Click to enlarge]
Baidu’s stock has always been priced at a premium due to its high growth potential. The average P/E ratio in the last five years was 83.1. The stock is trading with a sky-high P/E ratio of 64.9, and a forward P/E ratio of 34.2. In the last five years annualized EPS growth was 132.51%. However, with a market cap of $51.8 billion, I do not expect the growth to keep its pace. Even if it does, this has already been priced by the market.
As of Aug. 30, Baidu was trading at $148 with a 52-week range of $76.04-165.96, higher than my fair-value range of $139.70-144.71. Its price to book ratio of 29.6 is well-above the market. Its trailing price to sales ratio of 31.4 is also above the market. Analysts have very optimistic estimations. However, I think it is a high-risk investment to buy Baidu shares. There is a gap between $110-115 range which has yet to be filled. The stock returned almost 90% in a year. Maybe, it is the time to realize the profits while you can.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

[Karlll]

Tja, wie verhält man sich am besten. Wird die Regierung Baidu wirklich ernsthaft ans Bein pinkeln, oder ist
es nur Säbelrasseln?

Could Baidu Get Blown Up?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/08/25/could-baidu…
Tim Hanson
August 25, 2011

Imagine you own a business in China. Now imagine that the Chinese government starts running high-profile stories in their media about how you're defrauding your customers, enabling the sale of potentially dangerous pharmaceuticals, and slandering respected academics. Would you be concerned?

I'm guessing you would be, and rightfully so. Companies that attract the wrath of the government in China don't tend to do so well, whether we're talking about Google (Nasdaq: GOOG ) refusing to play ball on Internet censorship, or Sanlu Group putting melamine in its milk. Google has left the market and given up significant market share, while Sanlu went effectively bankrupt -- and there are many more examples.

This is the worst-case scenario facing Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU ) owners today. Following the aforementioned barrage of criticism on China's government-run CCTV last week, Baidu ultimately took to the airwaves itself and, effectively admitting guilt, apologized.

A sign of things to come
Not long ago in this column, I admitted I was wrong about Baidu. Rather than rest on its laurels after Google's exit from China's massive search market, the company has doubled down on innovation and aggressively grabbed market share. Its chunk of the Chinese search market now sits north of 75%. With its search algorithm only getting smarter, and the company devising more and better ways to attract and then monetize traffic, Baidu was starting to look like an investing home run.

But I should have known that success is never that easy in China.

To understand why, let's remember how and why the Chinese government controls the flow of information in the country.

A brief history of censorship
One of the hallmarks of China's communist government is that it controls nearly all of the country's media outlets. Whether in print, on television, or over the radio, the government owns and operates the No. 1 player in each space. Furthermore, to the extent that independent media exists, it must self-censor in accordance with the government's policies. Failure to do so could result in the revocation of a media outlet's operating license, or worse.

There is, however, no explicit list of taboo subjects in China. While it's well-known that the publication of a Tianamen Square expose or pornography would be verboten, the fact that China's review system is fluid and after-the-fact means that many outlets are even more conservative than they might otherwise have to be. This all plays in the government's favor. A press that doesn't challenge the government means a greater likelihood for stability -- or social harmony, as China's government likes to call it.

Truly disruptive innovation
Yet the Chinese government has found it increasingly hard to keep tabs on the Internet. Because of its user-generated content, lack of a fixed publishing schedule, and the sheer breadth of websites and information, readers, writers, and publishers are getting away with more now than at any other time in China's history. The reactions on Sina's (Nasdaq: SINA ) domestic microblogging platform Weibo to events such as the recent high-speed rail accident, for example, have been very frank.

This doesn't mean the Internet is open, of course. Many popular foreign websites, including Facebook and Twitter, are blocked in the country, and recent coverage of the brawl that marred a goodwill basketball game between the Bayi Rockets and the Georgetown Hoyas has all but disappeared. But the Internet in China is not the wasteland of absurdity that something like The Global Times, a new English-language state-run Chinese newspaper, is.

For the government, this is a concern. Information is power, and there's enough wrong with the Chinese government (notably, local corruption and abuse of power) to ensure that open, fair, and balanced coverage on the Internet would produce more than a few upset and mobilized citizens. And that might not be the only reason the government is wary. If our experience in U.S. private media is any guide, then the government is losing billions of dollars of advertising revenue from the traditional media it owns to the new media it does not.

When a company undermines the Chinese government's power and hits it in the wallet, expect the state to fight back.

The opening shots of a Chinese civil war?
This is why I believe the recent CCTV campaign may be only the start of a broader effort by the Chinese government to start tilting public opinion against Baidu, in order to enable the government to prosecute the company under the country's anti-monoply law. See, Baidu is currently a beacon of hope for China's tech sector. Not only did it oust foreigner Google, but it's also considered one of the best and most prestigious companies to work for in China. If the Chinese government were to crack down now, it would trigger a likely acrimonious public reaction.

But if the government can demonstrate to the majority of Chinese (and remember that the majority are not online, and therefore not using Baidu) that Baidu is abusing its position and disrupting social harmony, it can make legal action more palatable. That action becomes even more palatable from there if the government makes the case that Baidu is actually a foreign company.

Sound ridiculous? While Baidu is based in Beijing and was founded by and employs Chinese citizens, its ownership is foreign. The top holders other than CEO Robin Li are Baillie Gifford & Co., T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, and Marisco. In fact, because Baidu isn't listed in China, Chinese citizens can't actually own the stock. In other words, if the government crushes the company, it won't affect Chinese investors -- an important point to note.

What happens next
A reading of China's anti-monopoly law shows that it could easily apply to Baidu. Among other things, the law defines monopolistic conduct as "abuse of dominant market positions by business operators" and dominant market condition when "the relevant market share of a business operator accounts for 1/2 or above in the relevant market."

Defrauding customers could easily constitute "abuse," and a 75% or higher share is clearly greater than 50%.

What happens from there? That's where this situation gets interesting. Potential penalties include a fine of up to 10% of the company's previous-year revenue (a relatively immaterial $120 million for Baidu) or, more ominously, an order to "dispose or shares or assets, transfer the business or take other necessary measures to restore the market situation."

Given that the government has recently launched three of its own search engines, including one with China Mobile (NYSE: CHL ) and one with CCTV, I fear that Baidu could be forced to share its intellectual property -- its critical algorithm -- with competitors in order to restore normalcy in the eyes of regulators. Without a similarly effective actual search engine, no government-run enterprise would ever be able to compete.

The global view
Is the Chinese government willing to go after its own tech sector and slow the country's development in the name of cash and control? The answer to that question depends on how cynical or perhaps even paranoid you are, but it's no surprise that Baidu is apologizing. There's no winning a fight with the Chinese government.

As for foreign investors who have made a lot of money alongside Baidu, if I were one of you (and I wish I were), I would be thinking about using options or some other strategy to protect my gains in the face of this risk. While I admit that the government would be short-sighted and even stupid to declare war on its own economy to preserve its power -- well, I'll leave it there.[/red]

[Karlll]

Piper Jaffray & Co. stuft Baidu auf overweight
17.08.2011, 16:08

Minneapolis (aktiencheck.de AG) - Gene Munster, Analyst von Piper Jaffray, stuft die Aktie von BAIDU.COM (ISIN US0567521085/ WKN A0F5DE) unverändert mit "overweight" ein und bestätigt das Kursziel von 217,00 USD.

Die Nachrichten von CCTV im Hinblick auf betrügerische Webseiten unter den Listings dürften die Geschäftsentwicklung von BAIDU.COM unter dem Strich nicht in bedeutendem Umfang belasten. Signifikante neue Informationen habe es durch den jüngsten Bericht nicht gegeben.

Bis 2014 dürfte das Unternehmen zweistellige Zuwachsraten beim Umsatz erzielen. Wenn man Parallelen zur Vergangenheit von Google (ISIN US38259P5089/ WKN A0B7FY) ziehe, komme die Vermutung auf, dass der Umsatz von BAIDU.COM in drei Jahren 3,5 mal so hoch sein könnte wie im laufenden Geschäftsjahr. In 2011 werde der Umsatz auf 2,17 Mrd. USD geschätzt und das Ergebnis je Aktie auf 2,94 USD.

Vor diesem Hintergrund lautet die Einschätzung der Analysten von Piper Jaffray für die Aktie von BAIDU.COM weiterhin "overweight". (Analyse vom 16.08.11)17.08.2011/ac/a/a)




Nomura stuft Baidu auf buy
18.08.2011, 15:14


London (aktiencheck.de AG) - Der Analyst von Nomura Equity Research, Jin Yoon, stuft die Aktie von BAIDU.COM (ISIN US0567521085/ WKN A0F5DE) weiterhin mit dem Rating "buy" ein. Das Kursziel werde nach wie vor bei 200,00 USD gesehen. (Analyse vom 17.08.2011) (18.08.2011/ac/a/u)