Globale Erwärmung durch Treibhauseffekt - nur ein Mythos der Linken? (Seite 3347)

[mouse_potato]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.675.987 von rv_2011 am 31.01.12 19:14:00

Der nächste Knieschuss für den hockey-stick. Willkommen im Skeptiker-Lager rv

[rv_2011]

Nix Sonne:

Vulkanausbrüche stürzten Erde in Kleine Eiszeit

Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks

Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures over the past 8000 years have been paced by the slow decrease in summer insolation resulting from the precession of the equinoxes. However, the causes of superposed century-scale cold summer anomalies, of which the Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most extreme, remain debated, largely because the natural forcings are either weak or, in the case of volcanism, short lived. Here we present precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD, followed by a substantial intensification 1430-1455 AD. Intervals of sudden ice growth coincide with two of the most volcanically perturbed half centuries of the past millennium. A transient climate model simulation shows that explosive volcanism produces abrupt summer cooling at these times, and that cold summers can be maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed. Our results suggest that the onset of the LIA can be linked to an unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg. The persistence of cold summers is best explained by consequent sea-ice/ocean feedbacks during a hemispheric summer insolation minimum; large changes in solar irradiance are not required.

[mouse_potato]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.675.876 von rv_2011 am 31.01.12 18:58:16

Was macht einen denn zum Vater der Umweltbewegung rv?

Schon 1976 im Bereich Umwelt ist ohne Zweifel früh und die Bezeichnung als "Vater" doch nachvollziehbar. Aber wenn dir und f4z das nicht früh genug ist oder andere Väter lieber sind - auch ok.

Das ändert auch nichts daran dass er gute Argumente gegen den Klima-Hokuspokus vorbringt und die werden zweifellos gehört:

Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 450 in Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Bücher)
Nr. 1 in Bücher > Naturwissenschaften & Technik > Umwelt & Ökologie

http://www.amazon.de/Die-kalte-Sonne-Klimakatastrophe-stattf…


Bye bye AGW, bye bye!

[rv_2011]

Vahrenholt war von 1976 - 1981 beim Umweltbundesamt in Berlin beschäftigt und von 1981 - 1984 im Hessischen Umweltministerium verantwortlich für Umweltpolitik, Abfallwirtschaft, Immissionsschutz.

Ach - das macht ihn zum "Vater der deutschen Umweltbewegung"?

Lächerlicher geht es kaum.

[mouse_potato]

Global warming nonsense gets a true cold shoulder

First, the planet hasn't actually warmed for a decade - or even 15 years - according to new temperature data released by Britain's Met Office.

Hmm. That's not what global warming scientists predicted.

Look out of your window. The rain that Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery said in 2007 "isn't actually going to fill our dams and river systems" any more has just flooded NSW and Queensland yet again.

The Bureau of Meteorology - which three years ago warned "we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again" - now admits last year was our third wettest on record.

The snowfalls that the University of East Anglia in 2000 said would soon become "a very rare and exciting event" are falling as hard as ever.

The monster hurricanes we were told to expect by Nobel Prize winner Al Gore are coming no more often.

The massive coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef that warmist Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg predicted would occur every second year from 2010 has not been seen in years.

Wherever you look it's the same wake-up-to-yourself story. Sea levels have recently dipped, the oceans have lately cooled, Arctic ice has not retreated since 2007, polar bears are increasing in numbers, global crop yields keep rising and now some solar scientists warn not of global warming, but cooling -- a far deadlier threat.

So what was that warming scare all about?

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/global-warming…

[mouse_potato]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.665.318 von for4zim am 29.01.12 20:04:27

Ach so, das habe ich zufällig noch gelesen:

"Lindzen gehört nicht zur Creme de la Creme der Klimaforschung" Und das läßt sich zum Beispiel an der Referenzierung seiner Publikationen festmachen, die im Schnitt niedrig ist.

Hier steht:

Lindzen is an ISI highly cited researcher,[61]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lindzen


Wie gesagt, ich will dir gerne glauben. Könntest du deshalb kurz die Quelle posten in der ich nachlesen kann dass die Referenzierung von Lindzen im Schnitt nierdrig ist?

Bei der Gelegenheit, denkst du noch an die Quelle für die Eiszeit ab 2008? Und die dass es laut Lindzen keine Eiszeiten gegeben hat?

Danke im Voraus!

[mouse_potato]

In Deinem Text wird Fritz Vahrenholt als "Vater der deutschen Umweltbewegung" präsentiert.

Ja, das ist korrekt:

Vahrenholt war von 1976 - 1981 beim Umweltbundesamt in Berlin beschäftigt und von 1981 - 1984 im Hessischen Umweltministerium verantwortlich für Umweltpolitik, Abfallwirtschaft, Immissionsschutz.

http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/de/86244/rwe-innogy/unternehmen/m…

Es sind Beiträge wie dieser, warum ich Dir und Deine Mitpropagandisten vorwerfe, wiederholt bei diesem Thema zu lügen.

Wo ist hier eine Lüge? Eine kurze Entschuldigung reicht f4z.

In Wahrheit war er aberim Vorstand der Deutschen Shell AG und der REPower AG, dort zuletzt als Vorstandsvorsitzender, CEO der RWE AG und Aufsichtsrat bei der Deutschen Shell AG und Rheinkraftwerk Albbruck-Dogern AG, dort auch Vorsitzender.*Ironie an* Wie überraschend, daß er die Emission von Treibhausgasen nicht als Problem ansieht. *

Ja, und? Willst du damit sagen er wird von Shell usw. bezahlt für seine Meinung? Oder was willst du sagen f4z?

Das UK Met Office hat durch ein Team unter Lockwood nachrech…, wie viel denn die zu erwartende Strahlungsabnahme der Sonne bis 2100 bei der Erderwärmung ausmachen könnte. Es sind etwa 0,08 Grad. Rahmstorf und Kollegen kommen auf ähnliche Werte. Die zu erwartende Erwärmung bis 2100 liegt laut UK Met Office in einem Standardszenario bei 2,5 Grad. Dagegen ist der Beitrag der Sonne vernachlässigbar. Es gibt plausible Szenarien für den Fall nicht ausreichender Maßnahmen zur Minderung der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen, die globale Temperaturzunahmen von mehr als 5 Grad bis 2100 und darüber hinaus vorsehen. Spekulationen über den Änderungen der solaren Strahlung sind zwar von akademischem Interesse, aber für den weiteren Verlauf der globalen Erwärmung bedeutungslos.

Das sagst du. Experten sagen etwas anderes:

World temperatures may end up a lot cooler than now for 50 years or more,’ said Henrik Svensmark, director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at Denmark’s National Space Institute. ‘It will take a long battle to convince some climate scientists that the sun is important. It may well be that the sun is going to demonstrate this on its own, without the need for their help.’...

Dr Nicola Scafetta, of Duke University in North Carolina, is the author of several papers that argue the Met Office climate models show there should have been ‘steady warming from 2000 until now’.
‘If temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again, the divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories,’ he said.
He believes that as the Met Office model attaches much greater significance to CO2 than to the sun, it was bound to conclude that there would not be cooling. ‘The real issue is whether the model itself is accurate,’ Dr Scafetta said. Meanwhile, one of America’s most eminent climate experts, Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology, said she found the Met Office’s confident prediction of a ‘negligible’ impact difficult to understand.

‘The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the sun,’ said Professor Curry. As for the warming pause, she said that many scientists ‘are not surprised’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forge…

Jetzt haben wir wieder das alte Lied. International anerkannte Experten mit Haufenweise Arbeiten zur Sonne sagen etwas ganz anderes als du.

Ich will dir ja gerne glauben f4z. Könntest du deshalb vielleicht kurz deine Arbeiten zur Sonne posten? Zusammen mit deine anderen Arbeiten die Lindzen in den Schatten stellen sowie deinem Wikipedia-Eintrag wo all die Auszeichnungen für deine fabelhaften wissenschaftliche Leistungen vermerkt sind?

Dann kann ich mir vielleicht ein neues Bild machen. Bis dahin leider Daumen runter für deine Sicht und Daumen hoch für Lindzen, Vahrenholt, Svensmark, Scafetta, Curry und andere Experten.

[jetlagged999]

At least 50 dead as big freeze hits eastern Europe

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9051487/At-least-5…

Siberian cold front sweeps across Europe, bringing record low temperatures

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/9…

[rv_2011]

depodoc, ich dachte du kannst Englisch lesen und verstehen - welch ein Irrtum!

Ich hatte doch auf die Erläuterungen des NOAA zu der Problematik von absoluten Globaltemperaturen verwiesen:

Why use temperature anomalies (departure from average) and not absolute temperature measurements?

Absolute estimates of global average surface temperature are difficult to compile for several reasons. Some regions have few temperature measurement stations (e.g., the Sahara Desert) and interpolation must be made over large, data-sparse regions. In mountainous areas, most observations come from the inhabited valleys, so the effect of elevation on a region’s average temperature must be considered as well. For example, a summer month over an area may be cooler than average, both at a mountain top and in a nearby valley, but the absolute temperatures will be quite different at the two locations. The use of anomalies in this case will show that temperatures for both locations were below average.

Using reference values computed on smaller [more local] scales over the same time period establishes a baseline from which anomalies are calculated. This effectively normalizes the data so they can be compared and combined to more accurately represent temperature patterns with respect to what is normal for different places within a region.

For these reasons, large-area summaries incorporate anomalies, not the temperature itself. Anomalies more accurately describe climate variability over larger areas than absolute temperatures do, and they give a frame of reference that allows more meaningful comparisons between locations and more accurate calculations of temperature trends.

Sinngemäß auf Deutsch:

Da nicht an jedem Punkt der Erde eine Messstation ist, kennen wir die absolute (Durchschnitts-)Temperatur nicht für jeden Ort - also auch nicht die absolute globale Durchschnittstemperatur.
Da sich aber die Temperaturen benachbarter Regionen i.W. synchron ändern, können wir durch Beobachtung der Änderung der Temperaturentwicklung an den vorhandenen Stationen die Veränderungen (Anomalie) der regionalen Temperatur und der Globaltemperatur berechnen.

Die verschiedenen Angaben der absoluten Globaltemperatur eines Referenzzeitraums unterscheiden sich wesentlich stärker als die Anomalien, die in den verschiedenen Messreihen der Oberflächentemperatur kaum voneinander abweichen; die verbleibenden Abweichungen resultieren fast ausschließlich aus der Berücksichtigung bzw. Nicht-Berücksichtigung der Polarregionen.

[jetlagged999]

Citizen Audit

The Citizen Audit was a fact-checking exercise conducted over five weeks in March and April 2010. My call for volunteers was answered by more than 40 private citizens from 12 countries.

Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the IPCC, has repeatedly claimed that the Climate Bible relies solely, entirely, and exclusively on peer-reviewed source material. Moreover, he has declared that non-peer-reviewed research is unworthy of the IPCC's attention and deserves to be tossed "into the dustbin."

Prior to our audit, no news agency, science body, government department, or think tank had gone to the trouble of checking whether Pachauri's public statements were actually supported by the facts.

When I discovered that two chapters of the 2007 Climate Bible relied on a significant number of sources that were not peer-reviewed scholarly papers, the question then became: To what degree were these two chapters representative of all 44 chapters?

I devised a methodology - a set of guidelines - by which to conduct a wider investigation. The references at the end of each chapter were examined by three citizen auditors working independently of each other. Only after the final results were released did they learn who else had audited that chapter. These volunteers sorted references into two categories - scholarly journal articles and everything else - and then reported the totals. When their findings differed slightly, we used the number most favorable to the
IPCC. This wasn't about nitpicking, it was about the big picture.

At the time the 2007 report was written, the IPCC had a policy requiring non-peer-reviewed source material to be clearly designated as such when included in its reference lists. Had that policy been followed our audit would not have been necessary.

It is perhaps worth mentioning that our methodology was not the only one that could have been used. If we had had access to training seminars, funding, or oodles of time a more sophisticated approach might have been developed.

Summary of Findings

UN's Climate Bible Gets 21 'F's on Report Card


* all 18,531 references cited in the 2007 IPCC report were examined
* 5,587 are not peer-reviewed
* IPCC chairman's claim that the report relies solely on peer-reviewed
sources is not supported
* each chapter was audited three times; the result most favorable to the
IPCC was used
* 21 out of 44 chapters contain so few peer-reviewed references, they get
an F (59% and below)
* 43 citizen auditors in 12 countries participated in this project

Main Findings


Grade ------------Chapters (out of 44)-----% of Chapters receiving this grade

A (90 - 100%)-------------------8--------------------------18%

B (80 - 89%)--------------------5--------------------------11%

C (70 - 79%)--------------------6--------------------------14%

D (60 - 69%)--------------------4---------------------------9%

F (59% and below)-----------21--------------------------48%



The Delinquent Teenage
who was mistaken for the world's top climate expert

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnofrakkingco…